Protection is can't be target of spells of abilities. Yes, you can't Abrupt Decay a Delver of Secrets equipped with Sword of Light and Shadow, but you CAN Abrupt Decay the Sword of Light and Shadow itself, which doesn't have protection.
I think a lot of people are assuming that the new meta is going to be like 50% BGx. That's not just going to happen overnight. It takes more than $600 to buy a playset of Goyfs, and even longer for the Goyfs to ship over. That's not counting the $200 for Lili and another $250 for the Bobs. Paper meta does not switch overnight. I know that my local FNM will have 20% BGx at most, and a portion of it wouldn't even be optimal. Online meta will adjust quickly, paper will not except at the very top level.
What you will see is a ton of aggro decks especially at the inception of the new format. Affinity is going to be a thing, and so will Goyf-less Zoo, Delver knockoffs, Podless Pod, Merfolk, Burn, etc.. You do NOT want to run 4 Cryptic Commands, Condescend, Gitaxian Probes, Wurmcoil Engines, and all the clunk against these decks. Likewise, you don't want to be so slow against Tron that you're not landing your first threat until turn 5.
Play a flexible deck, we have Blood Moon and Vedalken Shackles to beat most midrange strategies and control. I'm more worried about aggro, is main deck Pyroclasm the way to go? What is our game plan against a resolved turn 3 Geist? How do we beat Affinity and Burn? How do we protect ourselves against Storm?
Adjust for the metagame, but don't over-adjust. Junk might be the best deck in the format, but thankfully, not everyone can just switch to a fully loadedd Junk deck in a week or two.
You would rather play cards that are more relevant in more match ups. Dying to Bolt is a huge tempo swing, and 4 mana seems like too much of an investment. For 4 mana, you could be playing Cryptic Command to tap all creatures and go for the kill.
Some argument can be made for Sower of Temptation replacing Threads of Disloyalty. However, Threads is one mana cheaper, which means it usually comes out turns ahead, and it doesn't die to Bolt/Path/removal. Abrupt Decay does hit Threads of Disloyalty, but at least that's one fewer removal for something that hits every card in the deck.
See the issue that I have with this is that we've clearly established Pod as the BEST deck of the format, and it's not even close. No other deck has won more than 1 GPs, and post Deathrite ban, Pod has BY FAR the most GP top 8's. If you're in to win a tournament, why would you pick a deck that's not Pod?
Once this has been established, Spikes will naturally gravitate towards Pod. Three months is a lot of time for new players to buy into this deck. The longer we take to ban the deck, the more it's going to hurt the players. A ton of players might exit Modern now if Pod is banned, more players will exit Modern if Pod is banned at a later date. Fundamentally, the deck is broken. If Survival of the Fittest is banned in Legacy, why should Pod be legal in Modern?
I don't foresee Wizards banning Birthing Pod any time in the near future, and it's possible that banning Pod right now is too radical of an approach. I would argue that banning Pod, which has really been a taboo up until now, really isn't out of the question.
I agree with a lot of what you wrote. While the best idea is probably to have no bans and let the meta regulate itself through unbans, Pod is an oppressive deck and one that's hard to fight against even with many sideboard slots.
Take these couple facts. Pod has won SIX out of the last thirteen GP's since Second Sunrise was banned. No other deck has above ONE win (Affinity, Burn, Scapeshift, UWR, Junk, Twin, and Delver). If you want to make it first at GP, or even top 8 for that matter, since Pod is tied for the most top 8 appearance during the same period with BGx (Jund, Junk, AJundi), then you better be playing Pod.
Pod represented TEN out of the top thirty-two decks. I don't know about you, but 31% of the top 32 is A LOT. While Delver represented more than its share of top 8 at 25%, it was 19% of the top 32, which is about equivalent to its day 2 share at 17%. It's easy to keep Delver down by playing more Chalices, but against Pod, you need multiple hate cards from multiple angles (Torpor Orb, Grafdigger's Cage) and STILL dodge Abrupt Decay, Thoughtseize, and Siege Rhino beats. Pod has the answers to everything in the format, it's no longer the skill testing deck since half the times you're just Poding Kitchen Finks into Siege Rhino/Restoration Angel.
Here's the data that I got from GP wins since May 2013 when Second Sunrise was banned:
GP Portland - May 11-12: Pod
GP Kansas City - July 6-7: Pod
GP Detroit - September 14-15: Pod
GP Brisbane - October 5-6: Affinity
GP Antwerp - October 26-27: RUG Twin
GP Prague - January 10-12: UWR Midrange
GP Richmond - March 7-8: Pod
GP Minneapolis - May 9-11: Scapeshift
GP Boston - July 25-27: Junk
GP Kobe - August 22-24: Burn
GP Madrid - November 14-16: RUG Delver
GP Milan - December 13-14: Pod
GP Omaha - January 10-11: Pod
Pod has won SIX out of the last THIRTEEN GP's. The next best deck, Affinity, RUG Delver, Scapeshift, UWR Midrange, RUG Twin, Junk, and Burn, EACH have ONE GP wins.
I get that Pod is the poster child of Modern and it has existed since Modern became a thing. But this deck has DOMINATED Modern since the combo decks with Seething Song and Second Sunrise were banned. Pod has as many GP top 8 appearances as BGx, and it has gone on to win SIX out of the NINE GP's where it top 8'ed. For Modern to become more healthy as a format, I really think Pod needs to go so that other aggro strategies like Zoo, Fish, and Burn can continue to exist. The deck is unfair, there's no good way to hate it out, and it's only going to become more ridiculous as more value creatures are printed over time. It's better to ban Pod when it's 15% of the format taking 45% of the GP titles than when it's 25% of the format since there are more money that players stand to lose. It's clearly by and large the BEST deck in the format whether players play it or not.
ktkenshinx I find it REALLY hard to keep defending Pod. You can say that Pod is only good right now now because it's metagaming against Delver, but take a look at the following 12 GP winners since the Second Sunrise ban.
GP Portland - May 11-12: Pod
GP Kansas City - July 6-7: Pod
GP Detroit - September 14-15: Pod
GP Brisbane - October 5-6: Affinity
GP Antwerp - October 26-27: Twin
GP Prague - January 10-12: UWR Midrange
GP Richmond - March 7-8: Pod
GP Boston - July 25-27: Junk
GP Kobe - August 22-24: Burn
GP Madrid - November 14-16: RUG Delver
GP Milan - December 13-14: Pod
GP Omaha - January 10-11: Pod
Pod has won SIX out of the last 12 GP's. NO OTHER DECK HAS ABOVE ONE WIN. Affinity, RUG Delver, Burn, UWR Midrange, Twin, and Junk each have one. Pre-KTK or post-KTK, Pod has take more wins than any other deck by far, and it's never in its existence been the most played deck in Modern. If I ever want to win a GP, I'd be stupid not to play Pod.
I gather that Wizards will keep defending Pod because it's a midrange deck, which they like, and doesn't violate the turn 4 rule. I think this deck has been broken for far too long, and the sooner we let it go, the better everyone will be.
I wouldn't bring in the Blood Moon, they have too many Mana Dorks for it to be effective. I'd rather have a Smash and a Gitaxian Probe. Taking out all the Remands, especially on the play, I don't like either. I'd much rather take out a Spell Snare. I would also say that Magma Spray is MUCH better on the board than Pillar of Flame since the only times you want it in is for board control, and it kills a Finks and Redcap on its life gain trigger so that it can't be Podded.
I'm pretty sure no cards will be banned in the upcoming announcement, but we'll have a few unbans like Bloodbraid Elf, Ancestral Vision, Sword of the Meek, and/or Seething Song.
About your deck, I found Desolate Lighthouse interesting, it seems like a fair fit. No Delver of Secrets feels really questionable to me because you're then much weaker to combo. I would try to at least add a couple Vendilion Clique so that while you hold up mana, you can still add pressure if they just durdle for a turn.
I would look up Zemanjaski's Dig Through Time Delver list if that's something you want to play.
I agree, paper and online are two different animals. In my opinion though, cockatrice is not a good indication for paper testing.
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
8 Island
1 Mountain
1 Forest
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Batterskull
2 Vedalken Shackles
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Cryptic Command
3 Remand
2 Mana Leak
2 Electrolyze
3 Spell Snare
2 Vapor Snag
What you will see is a ton of aggro decks especially at the inception of the new format. Affinity is going to be a thing, and so will Goyf-less Zoo, Delver knockoffs, Podless Pod, Merfolk, Burn, etc.. You do NOT want to run 4 Cryptic Commands, Condescend, Gitaxian Probes, Wurmcoil Engines, and all the clunk against these decks. Likewise, you don't want to be so slow against Tron that you're not landing your first threat until turn 5.
Play a flexible deck, we have Blood Moon and Vedalken Shackles to beat most midrange strategies and control. I'm more worried about aggro, is main deck Pyroclasm the way to go? What is our game plan against a resolved turn 3 Geist? How do we beat Affinity and Burn? How do we protect ourselves against Storm?
Adjust for the metagame, but don't over-adjust. Junk might be the best deck in the format, but thankfully, not everyone can just switch to a fully loadedd Junk deck in a week or two.
So something like...
Junk, UWR Mid/Control, Burn, Affinity, Tron (?), Bogle (?), Twin, Jund, and Scapeshift.
I like Blue Moon in said meta when it covers most of the decks here.
Some argument can be made for Sower of Temptation replacing Threads of Disloyalty. However, Threads is one mana cheaper, which means it usually comes out turns ahead, and it doesn't die to Bolt/Path/removal. Abrupt Decay does hit Threads of Disloyalty, but at least that's one fewer removal for something that hits every card in the deck.
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Snapcaster Mage
Instant (18)
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
3 Lightning Helix
3 Mana Leak
2 Remand
1 Spell Pierce
1 Spell Snare
Sorcery (9)
3 Serum Visions
1 Faithless Looting
1 Forked Bolt
4 Treasure Cruise
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Flooded Strand
2 Arid Mesa
1 Windswept Heath
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Steam Vents
1 Temple Garden
1 Stomping Ground
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Forest
1 Isochron Scepter
1 Hallow
2 Spellskite
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Destructive Revelry
2 Spell Pierce
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Flashfreeze
2 Negate
2 Pyroclasm
From his Modern Counter-Cat Primer.
I would wait until the banlist announcement are out before making any changes.
A Treasure Cruise ban will put UR Delver firmly back in Tier 1.5 where Wizards wants all blue-based decks to belong while GBx and Pod reign supreme.
Once this has been established, Spikes will naturally gravitate towards Pod. Three months is a lot of time for new players to buy into this deck. The longer we take to ban the deck, the more it's going to hurt the players. A ton of players might exit Modern now if Pod is banned, more players will exit Modern if Pod is banned at a later date. Fundamentally, the deck is broken. If Survival of the Fittest is banned in Legacy, why should Pod be legal in Modern?
I don't foresee Wizards banning Birthing Pod any time in the near future, and it's possible that banning Pod right now is too radical of an approach. I would argue that banning Pod, which has really been a taboo up until now, really isn't out of the question.
Take these couple facts. Pod has won SIX out of the last thirteen GP's since Second Sunrise was banned. No other deck has above ONE win (Affinity, Burn, Scapeshift, UWR, Junk, Twin, and Delver). If you want to make it first at GP, or even top 8 for that matter, since Pod is tied for the most top 8 appearance during the same period with BGx (Jund, Junk, AJundi), then you better be playing Pod.
Pod represented TEN out of the top thirty-two decks. I don't know about you, but 31% of the top 32 is A LOT. While Delver represented more than its share of top 8 at 25%, it was 19% of the top 32, which is about equivalent to its day 2 share at 17%. It's easy to keep Delver down by playing more Chalices, but against Pod, you need multiple hate cards from multiple angles (Torpor Orb, Grafdigger's Cage) and STILL dodge Abrupt Decay, Thoughtseize, and Siege Rhino beats. Pod has the answers to everything in the format, it's no longer the skill testing deck since half the times you're just Poding Kitchen Finks into Siege Rhino/Restoration Angel.
GP Portland - May 11-12: Pod
GP Kansas City - July 6-7: Pod
GP Detroit - September 14-15: Pod
GP Brisbane - October 5-6: Affinity
GP Antwerp - October 26-27: RUG Twin
GP Prague - January 10-12: UWR Midrange
GP Richmond - March 7-8: Pod
GP Minneapolis - May 9-11: Scapeshift
GP Boston - July 25-27: Junk
GP Kobe - August 22-24: Burn
GP Madrid - November 14-16: RUG Delver
GP Milan - December 13-14: Pod
GP Omaha - January 10-11: Pod
Pod has won SIX out of the last THIRTEEN GP's. The next best deck, Affinity, RUG Delver, Scapeshift, UWR Midrange, RUG Twin, Junk, and Burn, EACH have ONE GP wins.
I get that Pod is the poster child of Modern and it has existed since Modern became a thing. But this deck has DOMINATED Modern since the combo decks with Seething Song and Second Sunrise were banned. Pod has as many GP top 8 appearances as BGx, and it has gone on to win SIX out of the NINE GP's where it top 8'ed. For Modern to become more healthy as a format, I really think Pod needs to go so that other aggro strategies like Zoo, Fish, and Burn can continue to exist. The deck is unfair, there's no good way to hate it out, and it's only going to become more ridiculous as more value creatures are printed over time. It's better to ban Pod when it's 15% of the format taking 45% of the GP titles than when it's 25% of the format since there are more money that players stand to lose. It's clearly by and large the BEST deck in the format whether players play it or not.
GP Portland - May 11-12: Pod
GP Kansas City - July 6-7: Pod
GP Detroit - September 14-15: Pod
GP Brisbane - October 5-6: Affinity
GP Antwerp - October 26-27: Twin
GP Prague - January 10-12: UWR Midrange
GP Richmond - March 7-8: Pod
GP Boston - July 25-27: Junk
GP Kobe - August 22-24: Burn
GP Madrid - November 14-16: RUG Delver
GP Milan - December 13-14: Pod
GP Omaha - January 10-11: Pod
Pod has won SIX out of the last 12 GP's. NO OTHER DECK HAS ABOVE ONE WIN. Affinity, RUG Delver, Burn, UWR Midrange, Twin, and Junk each have one. Pre-KTK or post-KTK, Pod has take more wins than any other deck by far, and it's never in its existence been the most played deck in Modern. If I ever want to win a GP, I'd be stupid not to play Pod.
I gather that Wizards will keep defending Pod because it's a midrange deck, which they like, and doesn't violate the turn 4 rule. I think this deck has been broken for far too long, and the sooner we let it go, the better everyone will be.
About your deck, I found Desolate Lighthouse interesting, it seems like a fair fit. No Delver of Secrets feels really questionable to me because you're then much weaker to combo. I would try to at least add a couple Vendilion Clique so that while you hold up mana, you can still add pressure if they just durdle for a turn.
I would look up Zemanjaski's Dig Through Time Delver list if that's something you want to play.