Dying to Lightning Bolt is much more relevant than dying to Abrupt Decay, especially since avoiding Abrupt Decay means that you have to play it later in the game. Also, if RG Tron casts Emrakul, you will die before you can cast Sower of Temptation, or at least have your manabase ruined.
Well, there are these scenarios in which you simply tap Emrakul down with Cryptic but I don't know if I would really count on that.
The odds of having 'blossom in time to cast it with / without Visions are about 42% versus about 51%. That's a rough estimate arrived at by concatenating the odds to not draw it and taking into consideration the extra cards Visions would show you, over the likelihood of having Visions in order to see those cards. I didn't work it out with card removal, so the true odds are slightly better than this. What method did you use?
First of all I want to make clear that I'm not advocating against Visions I just want to analyze it's actual effect.
I think we use the same method. The chance for having Blossom in your opener is 1- (56/60*55/59*54/58*53/57*52/56*51/55*50/54). The result for T2 blossom assumes we are on the draw and continuing with this method. My result for visions was simply netting the extra card, dismissing the scry for now (which would of course influence us a bit). This is of course a really rough estimate, as we should consider the probabilty of having either BB or visions + scry + draw but as I'm not really that awesome in math I leave that for the more skilled players :X
Edit1: never mind this part
Edit2: After all we should also consider the negative effect it has, which was the reason why Fae never really played Ponder (at least as far as I know .. and Ponder is arguably the better card). It enhances the chances of getting some cards and is great when played Turn 1 (considered in a vacuum... so no need for discard and such). After that it gets worse for some turns until it starts creating value again (as you would be limiting your T2, 3 and 4 play). You also should have in mind that it binds resources at Sorcery speed and remember that you can't cast it of River of Tears T1 (although that's a small factor)
I'd try to focus more on the concept of the decks that are getting results (straight UB with aggro-control plan) and leave alternative approaches (third color splashes, more aggressive strategies, shoot yourself in the foot sideboard plans) in the background (or the bottom of the primer under a spoiler).
Good and valid points, but I would like to point out, that WE should help ThatStoryTeller doing this stuff. If you want to see some of this, why not giving at least a basic layout to work on?
@Serum Visions: If I remember right, there was some discussion back in the thread. I somewhat doubt these numbers though. If you play 4 Blossoms the probability of having one turn 2 is actually 48,7% .. if you add one Serum Visions to the mix (only concerning the draw) we are by 52,7%. It's not as drastic as one may think, although the Scry could help. I wouldn't know what I want to cut for Visions though? I guess if you want to truly discuss Visions, we would have to go back to Aggro vs. Control, as you build seems fine in general (with Scions, Venser... don't like the Trickbind) but it is totally different from what the majority is considering right now which probably makes it difficult to discuss the card.
Basically the saying was (of the old one) 24 lands nearly guarantee 4 lands on turn 4, the sheer numbers may prove otherwise. You are 4% more likely to hit 4 on 4 with 26 lands instead of 25 but I don't think that's worth "wasting" the slot... but I'm on 6 manlands as well.
When I loose to lands it's often because I drew way to much (something like 10 in the first 15 cards) or way to less (being stuck on 2 mostly). I really prefer having the extra spell slot here.
It's interesting how much the lists homogenize by now. I mean there are some different removal/sword choices but at least the mana and creature base seem to have settled by now
That situation wouldn't end up in a draw. Loops only result in draws when there is no way to end it but champion can be ignored if you sac one Clique. I'm pretty sure any Judge would force you to fast forward to this moment.
1) Okay, so we are talking about analysis. That's something I would welcome, but it's probably incredibly hard to give decent advice on when to slam it down and when not as it depends on many factors. I'm a bit short on time today, but I will see that I can contribute something in the next days.
2) Interesting list, although it doesn't seem that we could extract too much here. It's basically a Teachings list, and I would think we have no room for that card. Including that many 1-ofs doesn't work without it though.
3) I guess that falls back to the hostile tone that was often described. We should be more open to criticism and of course have to accept that this deck has flaws at the moment... but I guess everyone on here agreed that it's not exactly T1 at the moment and that it DOES need a lot of practice. Maybe some warning words in the opening post?
4) If Pod is rising again you can expect some decks that will prey on it and we probably are good against them. I wouldn't be too worried about temporal anomalies like the ones you could expect because of the recent GP Top 8. I wouldn't invest too much in this matchup either way, I don't feel that it's really that bad and you probably have to overcommit to get 50% or more win rate. We could discuss what points you have to look out for though.
I can't see how Living End is a bad matchup .. maybe you loose one game if they have the nut draw but otherwise? You play plenty of countermagic to stop them from resolving living end, just don't be greedy and use Cryptic if you expect a second cascade spell or Ricochet Trap (you can choose appropriate modes to hinder that one from happening though). Well, you shouldn't be greedy in general.. so don't go for Cliques unless you know they have nothing.
To Ym1r's points:
1) I don't really think anyone here actually thinks a resolved BB equals win ... but it greatly helps accomplishing that. What exactly do you mean with re-evaluate it? Checking the "rules" when and how to play it or considering cutting them?
2) What decks do you mean? I've seen a lot of mill lately, but that surely isn't something were we can "steal" something. Do you have a link maybe?
3) That's a really good point... but how do we recruit more players? I guess we can be happy if we can hold the ones we actually have :X
4) I haven't actually read about any metagame analysis lately.. how much % does Melira take? You always have to consider that improving a matchup usually means weakening others.
Well, at least he cutted what made Yasooka's list special: The Lilianas. I'm glad he placed so well, especially if there is no new tech. I mean, we all here figured out quite similiar lists and we see you can get there with tight play, what else would you want? I don't really know why the second Snapcaster is that interesting (as most of us already played one .. and like Briangrp said you kind of want 1.5). I think the most interesting part is the full set Spell Snares in his 75.
Edit: I like how Sittner plays seven basics now, like I already did before. Helps avoiding Blood Moon somewhat "easy" although you still can be wrecked. Probably a concession to his match against Kai Budde
Edit2: Tested his list and don't really like the removal package + the swords. I know we already debated this and won't agree anyways, just wanted to share my thoughts. Two Snapcaster feels better than one, you basically loose nothing while gaining a beater + "toolbox". With switched removals (no Tragic Slip is the most important change for _me_) and SoFaI/SoLaS its pretty neat. Interestingly enough his sideboard has no Affinity hate and I still don't know what you would use Glen-Elendra Archmage for?
Solutions are hard to find in our colours. I don't really know, Recall may reset them one turn, but that would mean you have your machine already running smooth to get them down with that edge (especially with two dead removal mainboard).. which i'm not really seeing. I would play 2 atm as well, but simply because the alternatives are probably worse (maybe I test Drown in Sorrow.. but that's still not really impressive).
And of course the sideboard is personal preferences, like I said... so I can still exclude it from my commentar
So, metagame breakdown says 4 Faeries in Day two... probably not doing much after that, but at least we see it's possible to go day two on such a big Grand Prix.
@udrew: Mostly personal preferences. I'm not really sold on Hibernation for Pod, prefer playing more explosives, would play Countersquall >> Negate (you usually have the mana) and I really don't like much 1 offs in the SB. Either I want a certain card or not, although I play 1 Batterskull. I know we have very little space, but I'd rather have multiple 2's than 1's. Like I said, mostly personal preferences. I'm not really sure if I like Hurkyl's Recall against Affinity. Got crushed yesterday pretty hard, but Recall wouldn't have helped much, so I'm still searching for a good Solution.
The list (without SB) looks okay, although I'm not sure about dropping Snares. Still interested to see your reasoning here. I would ditch the 6th discard spell for something more useful though.
Does anybody know if Alex Sittner still plays Faeries after the Pro Tour? If so, he's on 8-1.. that would be kind of awesome.
Couldn't watch yesterday: Are there any matches that should be reviewed once they are uploaded on youtube? The match of Twin vs. Blue Moon seemed to be good, but so good you have to watch it?
I hope that some Faeries players made day two, I don't expect anything beyond that but reaching day two would be something I really want to see..
I will queue with the ones cheering for Patrick, I like his playstyle (although I don't like Twin very much :P) and he seems nice... especially since he keeps posting here (even if it's some sort of misplay he made :P)!
Edit: As I keep picturing the scene I guess it's hilarious. Just imagine how the opponent must have felt: "What the f*** is he holding, that he can keep giggling with his 1-lander?!"
also, getting back to the land base: 25 lands with 6 colorless lands. good idea or nay? it seems to work for the people playing in the dailies.
Works for me as well, never really had issues (besides from online play on cockatrice.. but thats an abomination anyway :P). I prefer Ghost Quarters over edges here.. in the worst case you can 2 for 1 yourself to mana fix if its really needed.
@Pod Matchup: Only played two to three games against them, so I'm not really experienced (speaking of Melira) but I just killed what seemed to be an issue while trying to get them down. If you know what they hold I won't waste removal on semi-good targets unless totally needed (like you're going to die). I'm not really sure we would want to side out Snares (as suggested). I see they have very little targets but every resolved Voice makes the game harder. :/
Well, there are these scenarios in which you simply tap Emrakul down with Cryptic but I don't know if I would really count on that.
First of all I want to make clear that I'm not advocating against Visions I just want to analyze it's actual effect.
I think we use the same method. The chance for having Blossom in your opener is 1- (56/60*55/59*54/58*53/57*52/56*51/55*50/54). The result for T2 blossom assumes we are on the draw and continuing with this method. My result for visions was simply netting the extra card, dismissing the scry for now (which would of course influence us a bit). This is of course a really rough estimate, as we should consider the probabilty of having either BB or visions + scry + draw but as I'm not really that awesome in math I leave that for the more skilled players :X
Edit1: never mind this part
Edit2: After all we should also consider the negative effect it has, which was the reason why Fae never really played Ponder (at least as far as I know .. and Ponder is arguably the better card). It enhances the chances of getting some cards and is great when played Turn 1 (considered in a vacuum... so no need for discard and such). After that it gets worse for some turns until it starts creating value again (as you would be limiting your T2, 3 and 4 play). You also should have in mind that it binds resources at Sorcery speed and remember that you can't cast it of River of Tears T1 (although that's a small factor)
Good and valid points, but I would like to point out, that WE should help ThatStoryTeller doing this stuff. If you want to see some of this, why not giving at least a basic layout to work on?
@Serum Visions: If I remember right, there was some discussion back in the thread. I somewhat doubt these numbers though. If you play 4 Blossoms the probability of having one turn 2 is actually 48,7% .. if you add one Serum Visions to the mix (only concerning the draw) we are by 52,7%. It's not as drastic as one may think, although the Scry could help. I wouldn't know what I want to cut for Visions though? I guess if you want to truly discuss Visions, we would have to go back to Aggro vs. Control, as you build seems fine in general (with Scions, Venser... don't like the Trickbind) but it is totally different from what the majority is considering right now which probably makes it difficult to discuss the card.
Basically the saying was (of the old one) 24 lands nearly guarantee 4 lands on turn 4, the sheer numbers may prove otherwise. You are 4% more likely to hit 4 on 4 with 26 lands instead of 25 but I don't think that's worth "wasting" the slot... but I'm on 6 manlands as well.
When I loose to lands it's often because I drew way to much (something like 10 in the first 15 cards) or way to less (being stuck on 2 mostly). I really prefer having the extra spell slot here.
It's interesting how much the lists homogenize by now. I mean there are some different removal/sword choices but at least the mana and creature base seem to have settled by now
2) Interesting list, although it doesn't seem that we could extract too much here. It's basically a Teachings list, and I would think we have no room for that card. Including that many 1-ofs doesn't work without it though.
3) I guess that falls back to the hostile tone that was often described. We should be more open to criticism and of course have to accept that this deck has flaws at the moment... but I guess everyone on here agreed that it's not exactly T1 at the moment and that it DOES need a lot of practice. Maybe some warning words in the opening post?
4) If Pod is rising again you can expect some decks that will prey on it and we probably are good against them. I wouldn't be too worried about temporal anomalies like the ones you could expect because of the recent GP Top 8. I wouldn't invest too much in this matchup either way, I don't feel that it's really that bad and you probably have to overcommit to get 50% or more win rate. We could discuss what points you have to look out for though.
To Ym1r's points:
1) I don't really think anyone here actually thinks a resolved BB equals win ... but it greatly helps accomplishing that. What exactly do you mean with re-evaluate it? Checking the "rules" when and how to play it or considering cutting them?
2) What decks do you mean? I've seen a lot of mill lately, but that surely isn't something were we can "steal" something. Do you have a link maybe?
3) That's a really good point... but how do we recruit more players? I guess we can be happy if we can hold the ones we actually have :X
4) I haven't actually read about any metagame analysis lately.. how much % does Melira take? You always have to consider that improving a matchup usually means weakening others.
Edit: I like how Sittner plays seven basics now, like I already did before. Helps avoiding Blood Moon somewhat "easy" although you still can be wrecked. Probably a concession to his match against Kai Budde
Edit2: Tested his list and don't really like the removal package + the swords. I know we already debated this and won't agree anyways, just wanted to share my thoughts. Two Snapcaster feels better than one, you basically loose nothing while gaining a beater + "toolbox". With switched removals (no Tragic Slip is the most important change for _me_) and SoFaI/SoLaS its pretty neat. Interestingly enough his sideboard has no Affinity hate and I still don't know what you would use Glen-Elendra Archmage for?
Solutions are hard to find in our colours. I don't really know, Recall may reset them one turn, but that would mean you have your machine already running smooth to get them down with that edge (especially with two dead removal mainboard).. which i'm not really seeing. I would play 2 atm as well, but simply because the alternatives are probably worse (maybe I test Drown in Sorrow.. but that's still not really impressive).
And of course the sideboard is personal preferences, like I said... so I can still exclude it from my commentar
@udrew: Mostly personal preferences. I'm not really sold on Hibernation for Pod, prefer playing more explosives, would play Countersquall >> Negate (you usually have the mana) and I really don't like much 1 offs in the SB. Either I want a certain card or not, although I play 1 Batterskull. I know we have very little space, but I'd rather have multiple 2's than 1's. Like I said, mostly personal preferences. I'm not really sure if I like Hurkyl's Recall against Affinity. Got crushed yesterday pretty hard, but Recall wouldn't have helped much, so I'm still searching for a good Solution.
No green splash anymore?
The list (without SB) looks okay, although I'm not sure about dropping Snares. Still interested to see your reasoning here. I would ditch the 6th discard spell for something more useful though.
Does anybody know if Alex Sittner still plays Faeries after the Pro Tour? If so, he's on 8-1.. that would be kind of awesome.
I hope that some Faeries players made day two, I don't expect anything beyond that but reaching day two would be something I really want to see..
I will queue with the ones cheering for Patrick, I like his playstyle (although I don't like Twin very much :P) and he seems nice... especially since he keeps posting here (even if it's some sort of misplay he made :P)!
Edit: As I keep picturing the scene I guess it's hilarious. Just imagine how the opponent must have felt: "What the f*** is he holding, that he can keep giggling with his 1-lander?!"
Works for me as well, never really had issues (besides from online play on cockatrice.. but thats an abomination anyway :P). I prefer Ghost Quarters over edges here.. in the worst case you can 2 for 1 yourself to mana fix if its really needed.
@Pod Matchup: Only played two to three games against them, so I'm not really experienced (speaking of Melira) but I just killed what seemed to be an issue while trying to get them down. If you know what they hold I won't waste removal on semi-good targets unless totally needed (like you're going to die). I'm not really sure we would want to side out Snares (as suggested). I see they have very little targets but every resolved Voice makes the game harder. :/