@Raiec - it wasnt particularly something I had considered in great detail, someone in discord was running it. When I looked at how that affected the mana, I was pretty much sold. The old manabase ran Blooming Marsh, since it casts BOP and Inquisition, but that card is incredibly bad at casting turn 2 Lightning Helix and such. Path isn't generally a turn 1 play, so you are not forced into having white on Turn 1. that lets you basically play whatever untapped green source you want on t1, so I got to play Grove of the Burnwillows. Grove is better on Turn 4+, and has some weird upside vs Deaths Shadow. It also casts 3 of your best 2 drops (izzet charm, helix, trophy).
I'm not 100% sold on Path still, but I'm sold on "don't play inquisition + blooming marsh". It may be fine to run no other 1 drops in all honesty. I'm not sure yet.
I've seen no content pretty much on this deck, apart from the original 5-0. It's down to us!
It's 7 cards different to Cavedan's across the 75. I streamed it over at www.twitch.tv/daviusminimus, my video will stay there for 14 days.
My current list has a good number of hits off Niv, and i'm pretty happy with it overall. I've had "bad" hits of 2 and 3, but been lucky enough that the 2 have been great (bring to light + relevant spell, for example). I've had good hits of 6 pretty regularly too (often leading to a discard step)!
Here's the cards that I'm really not sold on yet.
Manamorphose, Assault // Battery, D-Sphere, Kaya, Baby Teferi, Sorin, Primal Command
They all have a role, and do something you're interested in, so by no means warrant cutting the lot. The issue is that they either have very little impact (manamorphose, assault//battery) or are not tutorable (walkers + d-sphere) or are just horrid when you draw them naturally (primal command).
Manamorphose is literally a do-nothing in 90% of games. The mana in here is so good, and you can usually beat blood moon. I've been in spots where I don't want to cast 'morphose in case op has dispel, which would then mean i can't cast Niv, and had spots where Eidolon of the Great Revel make 'morphose terrible. On the flip side, its a hit of Niv and replaces itself. It is nice to have this as an extra way to "beat" moon and an extra way to play around Field of Ruin. It's mainly here because the rest of GR is pretty unexciting.
Assault//Battery is similar. It's nice to be able to go "Niv plus a spell" occasionally, and it's also nice to have early interaction. But it's mostly meh. I don't remember making an elephant too often. Same issue as 'morphose in that there's few other choices.
In RG, I have the following to test: Xenagos, The Reveler - protects itself and the 2/2 has haste so can hit walkers etc. However, its ramp mode is mostly crap. Atarka's Command - this is "deal 3 ramp" 99% of the time. It's not great (growth spiral is better), but it is RG. Domri, Anarch of Bolas - this was in Cavedan's original list, but always looked bad. I am starting to understand why it was included. Huntmaster of the Fells - I ran this before, but it's easier to interact with than Sorin. Both carry the game, so perhaps there's space for both Wild Cantor - probably terrible, but it's almost guarenteed ramp since an op is unlikely to bolt it. Obviously it fixes too, which could be relevant under blood moon (comparable again to manamorphose). Wreak Havoc - has to be bad, right?!
I can't really think of too much else to say right now. The SB is ok, not stunning. I do like Knight of Autumn and perhaps want a 2nd. Fiery Justice is a card I'd like to try, since its great when naturally drawn and an ok bring to light target, but obviously misses off Niv. It could be better than Verdict in the main.
I'm 3-0 in my current league. My list before went 3-2 but was unlucky not to 4-1.
I think this current list sticks to having only 2 cards in my worst colours, and more in my better colours but never more than 4 (bring to light and lightning helix are my 4-ofs).
What's great about these cards is that they are all flexible, and can all help with the "burn them out" plan. Countersquall is just Negate, and Negate is playable in UW Control (and we're a version of control, kinda). BR isn't a great colour combo either, but k-command picking up Niv and burning for 2 is great, and its also brilliant vs hollow one. So far, Sorin and Kaya haven't shown up often enough, so we'll see how they get on in future matches - when i draw them though, they're usually doing ok.
Manamorphose, as many predicted, has done exactly nothing. I very very rarely need the fixing, so then its just "0-mana draw a card" with the downside of being terrible vs Thalia and Eidolon(s), with the upside of occasionally being a free card I wouldn't have gotten otherwise (compared to growth spiral for example). It's very very middling.
I am only 3 matches in, so pinch-of-salt required.
Also @LeFantak - although UB isn't a great colour combo, Unmoored Ego gives you outs to decks that you otherwise couldn't beat Game 1. An early Bring to Light for this card has won me more than 1 match, and so even if I cut all other Dimir cards, I'll be keeping this 1 in.
@LeFantak - thanks for trying to post those numbers, but they don't really work on MTGSalvation (copy n paste).
I kind of agree with what you're saying, but there's context for all these things. For example, Thought Erasure has 2 scenarios where it is good. 1) Vs Control or Combo, where there's a good chance they have cards in hand after you Niv. In that spot, discard is good to have and it's not a bad hit. Against agro / big mana, that's rarely the case, but there's situations where discard is fine. And the 2nd point - Thought Erasure can help you to dig to mana on turn 2, or threats if you kept a more mana-heavy hand.
Although those points may or may not make it better than Thoughtseize, when you add in that it's an extra hit AND castable off pillar, then I think it's a little too simple to say "just play thoughtseize".
I do agree on cutting borderpost, they have not worked for me. Growth Spiral is a funny 1. I don't like running too many, since the deck is more midrange than it is ramp. Plus it clashes with Bring to Light. However, in the early game, it can help you to get to the magic 5 mana earlier, and you can still hold up interaction while you wait. It's been ok for me as a 1-of.
Since cutting my RG cards and most of my WB cards, I have noticed a drop in succesful hits. It's still been acceptable, but I can see it quite quickly not being ok. I really do recommend keeping hits as high as possible.
I did some pretty quick maths from the same link (basically just to see the table), and 5-6 returns the best hit rate for a colour combination. But, you probably can't fit 5 of every colour.
So, for every 5th card you add, you gain 2% hitrate on that colour combo, but if its at the cost of the 1st copy from another colour, that 1st copy is worth 17%.
Realistically, you do want to try and get at least 1 from every colour, since each is worth 17% (ish). That seems like something to aim for if we can. I have put a cap on 4 cards for myself, and i think that's really the most you want to run.
Thanks for starting me on this line of thinking LeFantak, its very useful and interesting!
@D90Dennis14 - nice list. I went down the creature route for a bit but didnt have much luck. Picking up critters with k-command is good though, and picking up Niv is just dirty!
Discovery / Dispersal looks really quite nice, good find. I also agree with dropping Primal Command, I don't use that card very often really. I'd like to be able to, but taking a turn off to stop tron, for example, normally leaves you without a threat or a way to close the game. Good changes overall!
Let us know how your results are and what you have trouble beating.
For the record, I took cavedan's list, dropping sin collector, thought erasure and 2 domri (jim davis suggestions) and added 2 Teferi, Time Raveler, 1 Knight of Autumn and a Growth Spiral.
I'm only in my 3rd match with those changes, but so far baby Teferi hasn't been that impressive. The deck is mostly instants, and if you are behind on board, you can't realistically cast Teferi since she'll just die. It's been just ok, not exciting. Even with those small tweaks, my Niv hits have been worse already, giving me a choice between Knight or Safewright, and even had all 3 UW cards in the top 10 to pick from. Although that's slightly unlucky, had baby Tef been a different colour combo, I'd have got an additional card. However, even with a bad hit of say 3 cards, all not that great (izzet charm, safewright + k-command actually happened to me), I still felt pretty far ahead. A 6/6 flyer for 5 is actually quite hard for people to deal with in modern (push & dismember being common removal spells helps), so the extra cards are just nice to have, almost!
I echo what headminerve says here. A LOT of the deck is about surviving early. Once you manage that, a Niv is going to win you the game in most cases. I'd prefer to "top out" at 4 of each colour combo, but bring to light and growth spiral are so far apart on the curve that there will be an obvious pick if offered both.
The UW cards, Supreme Verdict and Detention Sphere, only cover 2 slots, and I'd argue D-sphere isn't even that good (a Maelstrom Pulse would likely be better, since its tutorable off Bring to Light and doesn't risk getting blown up, though is less good vs wurmcoil)! So going up to 4 UW cards, by adding 2 teferi, seems legit to me.
I am going to rebuild this again from the ground up, where the aim isn't to make Niv great, it's to make the individual cards good. If your deck is built "poorly" for Niv, you'll still hit 3 cards every time. My average has been 4 hits with cavedans list, so if that average drops to 3, I'm going to be ok with that (hitting 3 cards and a 6/6 flyer for 1 spell is insane). I think that's where the focus should be now.
@MackAttack9000 - thanks for sharing your list. We need as many as possible, the deck has potential but is just not quite hitting the mark yet.
Bits of feedback just at a glance :
1. I really like the 1st copy of Knight of Autumn over the 2nd Finks. It gives you lifegain that you want, but also just some interaction vs certain decks. Its not as good at grinding, but our deck is pretty decent there anyway.
2. You have 23 lands, but 7x 5-drops, which is quite a lot, especially when you have a 4th Niv in the board. I'd recommend trimming 1.
3. The reflecting pool only looks good when you have pillar of the parun out, but when you have pillar, your mana tends to be pretty solid anyway. I would probably cut this for something else, almost "take your pick".
4. I wonder if Firespout should just be Fiery Justice? You can hit firespout off niv but not off bring to light (since you dont cast with the colours). Or perhaps a split, or fiery in the SB as a wish target?
5. I do quite like Crumble to Dust in the SB myself. Having a virtual 5 copies game 2, plus your 4 copies of fulminator, should give you a decent tron MU for just 1 SB slot.
6. I have liked Tidehollow Sculler. It attracts removal which isn't great, but it gives you something relevant against the more linear decks in the format.
7. I'd add an Unmoored Ego to that wishboard. Being able to board in, for example, Slaughter Games and leave Unmoored in the board gives you a wish target and a bring to light target, giving you a full 8 of that effect postboard. In addition, Unmoored Ego on Turn 3 can tag tron lands on the play.
I have to say, your 23 lands actually doesnt look enough to me. You have no turn 1 plays, so no ramp. I wonder if you could run just 1-2 copies of mistvein borderpost. Its nice because you can fetch for a basic, play this on turn 1, and still have mana turn 2 to play what you want. But in addition, it's a hit off Niv that won't clash with the other cards in your deck. Although you don't NEED to hit a land after Niv, it is a nice bonus. It may mess up your manabase though (e.g. you don't particularly want to fetch basic island when you have UB borderpost, and you may find it harder to cast Lightning Helix on 2, for example).
I do like your list, but those would be my suggestions, even if they're only small tweaks.
@LeFantak - thanks for your reply.
I'm going to skip to 5) because it's the most interesting part. I have to admit, I lost to "forgot about moon" when there was a chance I could beat it, so that's fair. The manabase is a little tough, but that's the price to pay when playing 5c I guess.
1) I am on 7x 5-drops, which does feel heavy at times, but at others, I'm lacking a finisher. I am playing 29 mana sources though (compared to your 24), so I do get to 5 pretty consistently. I've just looked back at your list and your 4 basics aren't included, so your mana will have looked greedy to begin with!!
With regards to walkers, I tested Ajani Vengeant and it was ok. I was on the full 4 lightning helix then i dropped 1 for him (or her?!?!). Anyway, I was considering testing Nahiri since it's a good way to help flood. I haven't tested Kaya simply because i don't have the tix for her right this second. But, does look decent.
Also, I do like Knight of Autumn over Kitchen Finks for the most part. As a game 1 card, it is just that bit more flexible, and does help "get em dead" a little easier too. There's the tiny upside of blanking GY hate which seems to be pretty common these days too.
I think we've both evaluated the power of cards and got our split of colours pretty similar, but you've gone a bit further down the midrange route whereas I've added a touch of ramp (i guess like abzan midrange when they ran hierarchs etc). I do like my birds of paradise, but I recognise that they die a lot too. If I were to cut them, I'd definitely cut some top-end.
@LeFantak - List is interesting. Its pretty similar to mine in some ways, but replaces mana dorks with discard/removal. Seems a legit way to go. Its interesting that you've trimmed down on Niv and Bring to Light. I understand the Niv, but the bring to light was 1 of the better cards in my list.
Grim Flayer looks quite hard to make a 4/4. If it works out, let me know, because I really wanted to run Grim Flayer myself.
Deck looks pretty interesting to me as you've built it. I wasnt a massive fan of K-command, but that was because my list was so spell-heavy, that it didn't have a 4th mode.
I'd suggest a Deputy of Detention too (or maybe just detention sphere)? Its a good hit from Niv, obviously its flexible too. On top of that, you already attract removal to your tidehollow scullers, so it's not so likely to die instantly.
You did say at the top that you can make the manabase not so painful, but then lost to blood moon and hatebears. I think the manabase is the biggest issue, and if you face field of ruin, ghost quarter and blood moon all day, you're likely to lose of lot of games of magic. If you dodge those, i think the deck is pretty decent.
@SnowCrow - it was more to do with the colour pie. A BR ramp card was appealing because its a hit off Niv that doesn't clash with other cards. You might be given a choice between Kiora and Bring to Light, for example.
However, I think that might be something to ignore, since you don't really need ramp once you've hit 5 mana. I do need to revamp the list a touch, its not quite good enough yet! Domri is a little vunerable to agro decks, but Kiora has both value and ramp, which I like.
Also, casting Assassin's Trophy on Turn 2 sucks against basically anyone other than tron. So, I'm trying a split of Trophy, Abrupt Decay and Maelstrom Pulse. I'll see which I prefer (I have a feeling I'll end on a 2 Trophy 1 Decay split, because **** tron).
Edit: Game 1 Turn 3 - can't cast Chromatic Lantern because of the Pillar of the Paruns... ouch
Rakdos Charm is a nice suggestion.
Bloodbraid didn't work in my list because I switched to Spell Quellers, and the borderposts are awful with it. When I wasn't running borderposts though, BBE was probably the 3rd best card in the deck (after Niv + Bring to Light).
I may drop the 4 borderposts and go to 24 lands. That would actually allow me to play 2 shocks for each colour. This manabase is so damn painful!
Chromatic Lantern or Coalition Relic both look useful (Coalition relic would let you hit 5 mana on turn 4 without hitting your 4th land).
For the record, I messed around with Neoform + BBE today. My initial thoughts are:
1. There's no massive benefit to Neo being UG, because if you hit it off Niv, you don't actually have a 6-drop to pick up, Niv is your curve topper.
2. BW, RW, BG, BR all lack impactful creatures that you are happy to sacrifice. E.g. Tidehollow Sculler is not good to sac! The best creatures early on are Reflector Mage and Voice.
3. Bloodbraid is a small nonbo with Neo - it doesn't trigger if you fetch it up with Neo, and if you hit Neo off BBE, you can't sac the BBE (so you need something else on board before you play BBE).
Overall, those challenges look difficult to overcome, and therefore I've shelved it for now!
Im looking at different ways to find Niv without it a) costing 5 and b) having an effect early in the game. So far:
Congregation at Dawn
Eldritch Evo (has the neoform issues for the most part)
Jarad's Orders - only really has 1 half of it's text
Nahiri (sort of)
Summoner's Pact - does the job but the GG might be tricky, and it's hardly useful early
Time of Need - oooooooooooooooooo
Not much to go at in all honesty. Probably best just to hope to draw it :S I tried looking for <5 manacosted Legends for Time of Need, and found only a handful of possibly playable cards: Geist of Saint Traft, Grand Arbiter Augustin IV, Olivia Voldaren, Pharika, God of Affliction...
Also, Saffi Eriksdotter is completely overkill, but flipping it off Niv then casting it to protect Niv seems beautiful!
Hey Guys,
Glad i found this page... i've been working on this (and streaming it, self-plug, over at https://www.twitch.tv/daviusminimus), but took it down a slightly different route.
I found the spell-based list CaveDan played to be completely hopeless, I've no idea how he 5-0d with it, some kind of magic god!
So, the first thing I thought was "lets just play creatures". I went quite deep down that route, only to find that a lot of colour combinations are lackluster, and also, relying on manadorks for fixing was causing some real issues (too many hands that flood out, too many that lose "if they bolt the bird" etc).
I'll post the list, but then I've got a wall of text coming up with how I came to these cards, because it's not exactly intuitive! http://www.streamdecker.com/deck/U2P-3D6CI
On my stream, someone mentioned the borderposts as a way to artificially increase the land count AND increase your hits off Niv. I didn't like the sound of it until I dug a lot deeper. I realised that UR was probably my least favourite slot, but there isn't a borderpost in that colour. However, BR was also pretty underwhelming when being more creature-heavy, and there is a post there.
I then went on to working out my colour combinations with borderposts in mind. E.g. Since my borderpost adds BR, and my 2 basics were either forest or plains, I wanted my 2-drops to either be WB, WR, GB, GR. Then my 3-drops+ would occupy the other colour combos.
Having messed about with a lot of the creature cards, some were clearly lackluster from the start, so I then went down a more midrange plan. As you can see, there's a nice mix of early interaction, spells and creatures. What this means is that the deck is pretty good at getting to the mid/late game, and at that point, a Niv will usually do the job.
Having waffled a lot, here's some more waffle on the pros and cons of the list!
Pros:
1. Deck is hella fun
2. The interaction is flexible, giving you at least a shot in every game 1.
3. When you resolve Niv, you never (basically) lose. If you stick Niv, my worst case so far has been 3 cards (1 of which was a borderpost). But 2 extra spells and a 6/6 flyer is still enough to carry.
4. The deck can make a turn 3 Niv semi realistically. It requires turn 1 bop into hard-casting a borderpost.
Cons:
1. Although massively improved, the decks mana is still the biggest weakest. Often you are forced to fetch a basic early to enable your borderpost, which turns off a card like Tidehollow or Helix. If you could run 8 windswept heath, this problem would mostly be fixed, but you cant.
2. Blood Moon is at, what feels like, an all-time high. People are testing it with new-karn in either Ponza or Mono-red Prison, and it's really tough to beat.
3. It can occasionally fail to find a pay-off. I have lost games that have dragged to turn 9-10 but couldn't draw bring to light or Niv.
Out of the cards from the list linked, here's the ones I'm less keen:
Ajani Vengeant - I'm not sure she's necessary. I could run another helix, or nahiri potentially. There's also potential just to run a UR or UB card, since I don't have many of them.
Sideboard - I like Fiery Justice, Path, Unmoored Ego and Teeg. Crumble & Gust are auto-includes thanks to Bring to Light, but I'm not sure about the remaining slots.
I 4-1d my first league, then went on to 0-4, playing against 2x Ponza, 1x Mono-red Prison, 1x UW Control (field + path). I took a game out of all 4 losses, but ultimately couldn't beat the mana hate. I've beaten decks like Burn, 8-whack, Tron, BG Rock and Humans.
My list feels like it has potential. I tested a glittering wish list but hated it, so that's gone in the bin for now. I dont know how to solve the mana, maybe some of you guys can!
Match 1 vs Amulet - this was an epic 3. game 1 I had a good draw (T1 Dork, T2 Knight for Amulet, T3 Prime Speaker). Game 2 went mega long. They had trinket mage grabbing pithing needle for my prime speaker, then they landed a turn 6(!!) titan after having played a path and a radiant flames to wipe away a lot of my stuff (including my magus of the moon, and i had boarded out witness). At this point, i have a choice. I can use Shaman to grab knight of autumn, remove coalition relic, meaning my opp would have just titan and 2 available mana (had a pact to pay for). Or, get knight and remove pithing needle. Or just jam a prime speaker and hope i untap with the shaman to grab knight (i only had 4 mana available). I could also get deputy to remove titan, but know that im basically dead and buried by a removal spell then. I chose to take them off some mana, but I think Prime Speaker and make them have it was the line. It goes quite a bit longer before I eventually die to infinite interaction off of their t-wests (double EE and Ballista) and trinket mage (needle).
Game 3 is a littleeee less exciting, but some really good play from my opp all the same (he played really well for all 3 games). Its pretty quickly estabilished that we're both racing, as I go T1 Dork, T2 spellskite that got pathed, T3 Prime Speaker. They make an amulet, but are missing any more ramp (or a bounceland, 1 or the other). T2-T3 they just make land drops, so i am predicted path or something. T4 they tap out for azusa, play a bounce land 3 times and make a titan, and go into the tank. It turns out they had infinite options. They know pact of negation isnt worth getting. But they have trinket mage in hand so attack with titan and then get double-bounce so they can make mage into needle naming speaker. I have deputy of detention, remove needle and win. But, they did naturally have ballista in hand, which could have removed my dork. However, in that spot, I could deputy the ballista then play a fauna shaman (thanks to the ramp from path) to combo from there. I basically had the nuts for that particular hand of my opponents.
Match 2 vs UR Control - won in 2, dont remember the details, but game 1 was a quick win (i didnt even know what i was facing, just saw 3 lands and opt). I boarded as if they were storm and they lead T2 Titi. I paniced a bit, but spell pierce and eidolon were actually great. Makes me think I should run Eidolon vs UW Control. The good thing about it was that I could use fauna shaman + resto to respond to any spell they might have, so as long as i stayed ahead on board, i couldnt lose.
Match 3 vs Storm - won in 2, my opp kept a bad hand G1 and I had interaction in the form of eidolon (off shaman), into spellskite, into kiki-jiki. I then just had to be careful and make sure i wasnt blown out by echoing truth.
Match 4 vs Humans - game 1 they dont have an answer to my Turn 4 Prime Speaker, so I use a fauna shaman and a courser to chump block some big champions and untap and win. Game 2 a Fiery Justice clears up 2 bobs and a champion of the parish, then the follow-up kitesail x2 and tax-thalia did nothing and i took over with shaman + squee (they scooped very quickly).
Currently 4-0
Match 5 vs Grixis Control with Titi - Basically, the deck destroyed me Game 1. They had lots of removal but they didnt even have to rush to use it, because they have a titi just sitting there. Eventually they go bolt flip titi, snap bolt, swing win.
Game 2 is closer(ish), but I get stuck on 2 lands, a scryb ranger and a bop, with shaman + squee active. But they have counter-magic and titi, and i just cant get going. I eventually die on Turn 8 having never made land drop 3. I had a decent chance if i could get moving, since i had cards like scryb ranger to block titi and resto to protect it. Had an uncastable Deputy because the BOP came back to hand. That felt bad.
Last 3 leagues are 5-0, 2-3, 4-1. Pretty good, 11-4 is pretty reasonable imo.
I'm not 100% sold on Path still, but I'm sold on "don't play inquisition + blooming marsh". It may be fine to run no other 1 drops in all honesty. I'm not sure yet.
I've seen no content pretty much on this deck, apart from the original 5-0. It's down to us!
Just thought i'd pop on quickly and say that I'm streaming the deck as often as I can over at https://www.twitch.tv/daviusminimus. Click follow so you get some notifications and you can come and watch!
My current list is:
https://www.streamdecker.com/deck/-RTSRU6aY
My results are decent, 4-1s and 3-2s are the norm on modo.
https://deckstats.net/decks/86739/1300215-cavedans-5-0-niv-mizzet-reborn
It's 7 cards different to Cavedan's across the 75. I streamed it over at www.twitch.tv/daviusminimus, my video will stay there for 14 days.
My current list has a good number of hits off Niv, and i'm pretty happy with it overall. I've had "bad" hits of 2 and 3, but been lucky enough that the 2 have been great (bring to light + relevant spell, for example). I've had good hits of 6 pretty regularly too (often leading to a discard step)!
Here's the cards that I'm really not sold on yet.
Manamorphose, Assault // Battery, D-Sphere, Kaya, Baby Teferi, Sorin, Primal Command
They all have a role, and do something you're interested in, so by no means warrant cutting the lot. The issue is that they either have very little impact (manamorphose, assault//battery) or are not tutorable (walkers + d-sphere) or are just horrid when you draw them naturally (primal command).
Manamorphose is literally a do-nothing in 90% of games. The mana in here is so good, and you can usually beat blood moon. I've been in spots where I don't want to cast 'morphose in case op has dispel, which would then mean i can't cast Niv, and had spots where Eidolon of the Great Revel make 'morphose terrible. On the flip side, its a hit of Niv and replaces itself. It is nice to have this as an extra way to "beat" moon and an extra way to play around Field of Ruin. It's mainly here because the rest of GR is pretty unexciting.
Assault//Battery is similar. It's nice to be able to go "Niv plus a spell" occasionally, and it's also nice to have early interaction. But it's mostly meh. I don't remember making an elephant too often. Same issue as 'morphose in that there's few other choices.
In RG, I have the following to test:
Xenagos, The Reveler - protects itself and the 2/2 has haste so can hit walkers etc. However, its ramp mode is mostly crap.
Atarka's Command - this is "deal 3 ramp" 99% of the time. It's not great (growth spiral is better), but it is RG.
Domri, Anarch of Bolas - this was in Cavedan's original list, but always looked bad. I am starting to understand why it was included.
Huntmaster of the Fells - I ran this before, but it's easier to interact with than Sorin. Both carry the game, so perhaps there's space for both
Wild Cantor - probably terrible, but it's almost guarenteed ramp since an op is unlikely to bolt it. Obviously it fixes too, which could be relevant under blood moon (comparable again to manamorphose).
Wreak Havoc - has to be bad, right?!
I can't really think of too much else to say right now. The SB is ok, not stunning. I do like Knight of Autumn and perhaps want a 2nd. Fiery Justice is a card I'd like to try, since its great when naturally drawn and an ok bring to light target, but obviously misses off Niv. It could be better than Verdict in the main.
http://deck.tk/0vPY36tC
I'm 3-0 in my current league. My list before went 3-2 but was unlucky not to 4-1.
I think this current list sticks to having only 2 cards in my worst colours, and more in my better colours but never more than 4 (bring to light and lightning helix are my 4-ofs).
What's great about these cards is that they are all flexible, and can all help with the "burn them out" plan. Countersquall is just Negate, and Negate is playable in UW Control (and we're a version of control, kinda). BR isn't a great colour combo either, but k-command picking up Niv and burning for 2 is great, and its also brilliant vs hollow one. So far, Sorin and Kaya haven't shown up often enough, so we'll see how they get on in future matches - when i draw them though, they're usually doing ok.
Manamorphose, as many predicted, has done exactly nothing. I very very rarely need the fixing, so then its just "0-mana draw a card" with the downside of being terrible vs Thalia and Eidolon(s), with the upside of occasionally being a free card I wouldn't have gotten otherwise (compared to growth spiral for example). It's very very middling.
I am only 3 matches in, so pinch-of-salt required.
Also @LeFantak - although UB isn't a great colour combo, Unmoored Ego gives you outs to decks that you otherwise couldn't beat Game 1. An early Bring to Light for this card has won me more than 1 match, and so even if I cut all other Dimir cards, I'll be keeping this 1 in.
I kind of agree with what you're saying, but there's context for all these things. For example, Thought Erasure has 2 scenarios where it is good. 1) Vs Control or Combo, where there's a good chance they have cards in hand after you Niv. In that spot, discard is good to have and it's not a bad hit. Against agro / big mana, that's rarely the case, but there's situations where discard is fine. And the 2nd point - Thought Erasure can help you to dig to mana on turn 2, or threats if you kept a more mana-heavy hand.
Although those points may or may not make it better than Thoughtseize, when you add in that it's an extra hit AND castable off pillar, then I think it's a little too simple to say "just play thoughtseize".
I do agree on cutting borderpost, they have not worked for me. Growth Spiral is a funny 1. I don't like running too many, since the deck is more midrange than it is ramp. Plus it clashes with Bring to Light. However, in the early game, it can help you to get to the magic 5 mana earlier, and you can still hold up interaction while you wait. It's been ok for me as a 1-of.
Since cutting my RG cards and most of my WB cards, I have noticed a drop in succesful hits. It's still been acceptable, but I can see it quite quickly not being ok. I really do recommend keeping hits as high as possible.
I did some pretty quick maths from the same link (basically just to see the table), and 5-6 returns the best hit rate for a colour combination. But, you probably can't fit 5 of every colour.
So, for every 5th card you add, you gain 2% hitrate on that colour combo, but if its at the cost of the 1st copy from another colour, that 1st copy is worth 17%.
Realistically, you do want to try and get at least 1 from every colour, since each is worth 17% (ish). That seems like something to aim for if we can. I have put a cap on 4 cards for myself, and i think that's really the most you want to run.
Thanks for starting me on this line of thinking LeFantak, its very useful and interesting!
Discovery / Dispersal looks really quite nice, good find. I also agree with dropping Primal Command, I don't use that card very often really. I'd like to be able to, but taking a turn off to stop tron, for example, normally leaves you without a threat or a way to close the game. Good changes overall!
Let us know how your results are and what you have trouble beating.
For the record, I took cavedan's list, dropping sin collector, thought erasure and 2 domri (jim davis suggestions) and added 2 Teferi, Time Raveler, 1 Knight of Autumn and a Growth Spiral.
I'm only in my 3rd match with those changes, but so far baby Teferi hasn't been that impressive. The deck is mostly instants, and if you are behind on board, you can't realistically cast Teferi since she'll just die. It's been just ok, not exciting. Even with those small tweaks, my Niv hits have been worse already, giving me a choice between Knight or Safewright, and even had all 3 UW cards in the top 10 to pick from. Although that's slightly unlucky, had baby Tef been a different colour combo, I'd have got an additional card. However, even with a bad hit of say 3 cards, all not that great (izzet charm, safewright + k-command actually happened to me), I still felt pretty far ahead. A 6/6 flyer for 5 is actually quite hard for people to deal with in modern (push & dismember being common removal spells helps), so the extra cards are just nice to have, almost!
The UW cards, Supreme Verdict and Detention Sphere, only cover 2 slots, and I'd argue D-sphere isn't even that good (a Maelstrom Pulse would likely be better, since its tutorable off Bring to Light and doesn't risk getting blown up, though is less good vs wurmcoil)! So going up to 4 UW cards, by adding 2 teferi, seems legit to me.
I am going to rebuild this again from the ground up, where the aim isn't to make Niv great, it's to make the individual cards good. If your deck is built "poorly" for Niv, you'll still hit 3 cards every time. My average has been 4 hits with cavedans list, so if that average drops to 3, I'm going to be ok with that (hitting 3 cards and a 6/6 flyer for 1 spell is insane). I think that's where the focus should be now.
Bits of feedback just at a glance :
1. I really like the 1st copy of Knight of Autumn over the 2nd Finks. It gives you lifegain that you want, but also just some interaction vs certain decks. Its not as good at grinding, but our deck is pretty decent there anyway.
2. You have 23 lands, but 7x 5-drops, which is quite a lot, especially when you have a 4th Niv in the board. I'd recommend trimming 1.
3. The reflecting pool only looks good when you have pillar of the parun out, but when you have pillar, your mana tends to be pretty solid anyway. I would probably cut this for something else, almost "take your pick".
4. I wonder if Firespout should just be Fiery Justice? You can hit firespout off niv but not off bring to light (since you dont cast with the colours). Or perhaps a split, or fiery in the SB as a wish target?
5. I do quite like Crumble to Dust in the SB myself. Having a virtual 5 copies game 2, plus your 4 copies of fulminator, should give you a decent tron MU for just 1 SB slot.
6. I have liked Tidehollow Sculler. It attracts removal which isn't great, but it gives you something relevant against the more linear decks in the format.
7. I'd add an Unmoored Ego to that wishboard. Being able to board in, for example, Slaughter Games and leave Unmoored in the board gives you a wish target and a bring to light target, giving you a full 8 of that effect postboard. In addition, Unmoored Ego on Turn 3 can tag tron lands on the play.
I have to say, your 23 lands actually doesnt look enough to me. You have no turn 1 plays, so no ramp. I wonder if you could run just 1-2 copies of mistvein borderpost. Its nice because you can fetch for a basic, play this on turn 1, and still have mana turn 2 to play what you want. But in addition, it's a hit off Niv that won't clash with the other cards in your deck. Although you don't NEED to hit a land after Niv, it is a nice bonus. It may mess up your manabase though (e.g. you don't particularly want to fetch basic island when you have UB borderpost, and you may find it harder to cast Lightning Helix on 2, for example).
I do like your list, but those would be my suggestions, even if they're only small tweaks.
I'm going to skip to 5) because it's the most interesting part. I have to admit, I lost to "forgot about moon" when there was a chance I could beat it, so that's fair. The manabase is a little tough, but that's the price to pay when playing 5c I guess.
1) I am on 7x 5-drops, which does feel heavy at times, but at others, I'm lacking a finisher. I am playing 29 mana sources though (compared to your 24), so I do get to 5 pretty consistently. I've just looked back at your list and your 4 basics aren't included, so your mana will have looked greedy to begin with!!
With regards to walkers, I tested Ajani Vengeant and it was ok. I was on the full 4 lightning helix then i dropped 1 for him (or her?!?!). Anyway, I was considering testing Nahiri since it's a good way to help flood. I haven't tested Kaya simply because i don't have the tix for her right this second. But, does look decent.
Also, I do like Knight of Autumn over Kitchen Finks for the most part. As a game 1 card, it is just that bit more flexible, and does help "get em dead" a little easier too. There's the tiny upside of blanking GY hate which seems to be pretty common these days too.
I think we've both evaluated the power of cards and got our split of colours pretty similar, but you've gone a bit further down the midrange route whereas I've added a touch of ramp (i guess like abzan midrange when they ran hierarchs etc). I do like my birds of paradise, but I recognise that they die a lot too. If I were to cut them, I'd definitely cut some top-end.
Grim Flayer looks quite hard to make a 4/4. If it works out, let me know, because I really wanted to run Grim Flayer myself.
Deck looks pretty interesting to me as you've built it. I wasnt a massive fan of K-command, but that was because my list was so spell-heavy, that it didn't have a 4th mode.
I'd suggest a Deputy of Detention too (or maybe just detention sphere)? Its a good hit from Niv, obviously its flexible too. On top of that, you already attract removal to your tidehollow scullers, so it's not so likely to die instantly.
You did say at the top that you can make the manabase not so painful, but then lost to blood moon and hatebears. I think the manabase is the biggest issue, and if you face field of ruin, ghost quarter and blood moon all day, you're likely to lose of lot of games of magic. If you dodge those, i think the deck is pretty decent.
However, I think that might be something to ignore, since you don't really need ramp once you've hit 5 mana. I do need to revamp the list a touch, its not quite good enough yet! Domri is a little vunerable to agro decks, but Kiora has both value and ramp, which I like.
Edit: Game 1 Turn 3 - can't cast Chromatic Lantern because of the Pillar of the Paruns... ouch
Bloodbraid didn't work in my list because I switched to Spell Quellers, and the borderposts are awful with it. When I wasn't running borderposts though, BBE was probably the 3rd best card in the deck (after Niv + Bring to Light).
I may drop the 4 borderposts and go to 24 lands. That would actually allow me to play 2 shocks for each colour. This manabase is so damn painful!
Chromatic Lantern or Coalition Relic both look useful (Coalition relic would let you hit 5 mana on turn 4 without hitting your 4th land).
For the record, I messed around with Neoform + BBE today. My initial thoughts are:
1. There's no massive benefit to Neo being UG, because if you hit it off Niv, you don't actually have a 6-drop to pick up, Niv is your curve topper.
2. BW, RW, BG, BR all lack impactful creatures that you are happy to sacrifice. E.g. Tidehollow Sculler is not good to sac! The best creatures early on are Reflector Mage and Voice.
3. Bloodbraid is a small nonbo with Neo - it doesn't trigger if you fetch it up with Neo, and if you hit Neo off BBE, you can't sac the BBE (so you need something else on board before you play BBE).
Overall, those challenges look difficult to overcome, and therefore I've shelved it for now!
Im looking at different ways to find Niv without it a) costing 5 and b) having an effect early in the game. So far:
Congregation at Dawn
Eldritch Evo (has the neoform issues for the most part)
Jarad's Orders - only really has 1 half of it's text
Nahiri (sort of)
Summoner's Pact - does the job but the GG might be tricky, and it's hardly useful early
Time of Need - oooooooooooooooooo
Not much to go at in all honesty. Probably best just to hope to draw it :S I tried looking for <5 manacosted Legends for Time of Need, and found only a handful of possibly playable cards:
Geist of Saint Traft, Grand Arbiter Augustin IV, Olivia Voldaren, Pharika, God of Affliction...
Also, Saffi Eriksdotter is completely overkill, but flipping it off Niv then casting it to protect Niv seems beautiful!
Any thoughts anyone!?!
Glad i found this page... i've been working on this (and streaming it, self-plug, over at https://www.twitch.tv/daviusminimus), but took it down a slightly different route.
I found the spell-based list CaveDan played to be completely hopeless, I've no idea how he 5-0d with it, some kind of magic god!
So, the first thing I thought was "lets just play creatures". I went quite deep down that route, only to find that a lot of colour combinations are lackluster, and also, relying on manadorks for fixing was causing some real issues (too many hands that flood out, too many that lose "if they bolt the bird" etc).
I'll post the list, but then I've got a wall of text coming up with how I came to these cards, because it's not exactly intuitive!
http://www.streamdecker.com/deck/U2P-3D6CI
On my stream, someone mentioned the borderposts as a way to artificially increase the land count AND increase your hits off Niv. I didn't like the sound of it until I dug a lot deeper. I realised that UR was probably my least favourite slot, but there isn't a borderpost in that colour. However, BR was also pretty underwhelming when being more creature-heavy, and there is a post there.
I then went on to working out my colour combinations with borderposts in mind. E.g. Since my borderpost adds BR, and my 2 basics were either forest or plains, I wanted my 2-drops to either be WB, WR, GB, GR. Then my 3-drops+ would occupy the other colour combos.
Having messed about with a lot of the creature cards, some were clearly lackluster from the start, so I then went down a more midrange plan. As you can see, there's a nice mix of early interaction, spells and creatures. What this means is that the deck is pretty good at getting to the mid/late game, and at that point, a Niv will usually do the job.
Having waffled a lot, here's some more waffle on the pros and cons of the list!
Pros:
1. Deck is hella fun
2. The interaction is flexible, giving you at least a shot in every game 1.
3. When you resolve Niv, you never (basically) lose. If you stick Niv, my worst case so far has been 3 cards (1 of which was a borderpost). But 2 extra spells and a 6/6 flyer is still enough to carry.
4. The deck can make a turn 3 Niv semi realistically. It requires turn 1 bop into hard-casting a borderpost.
Cons:
1. Although massively improved, the decks mana is still the biggest weakest. Often you are forced to fetch a basic early to enable your borderpost, which turns off a card like Tidehollow or Helix. If you could run 8 windswept heath, this problem would mostly be fixed, but you cant.
2. Blood Moon is at, what feels like, an all-time high. People are testing it with new-karn in either Ponza or Mono-red Prison, and it's really tough to beat.
3. It can occasionally fail to find a pay-off. I have lost games that have dragged to turn 9-10 but couldn't draw bring to light or Niv.
Out of the cards from the list linked, here's the ones I'm less keen:
Ajani Vengeant - I'm not sure she's necessary. I could run another helix, or nahiri potentially. There's also potential just to run a UR or UB card, since I don't have many of them.
Sideboard - I like Fiery Justice, Path, Unmoored Ego and Teeg. Crumble & Gust are auto-includes thanks to Bring to Light, but I'm not sure about the remaining slots.
I 4-1d my first league, then went on to 0-4, playing against 2x Ponza, 1x Mono-red Prison, 1x UW Control (field + path). I took a game out of all 4 losses, but ultimately couldn't beat the mana hate. I've beaten decks like Burn, 8-whack, Tron, BG Rock and Humans.
My list feels like it has potential. I tested a glittering wish list but hated it, so that's gone in the bin for now. I dont know how to solve the mana, maybe some of you guys can!
Match 1 vs Amulet - this was an epic 3. game 1 I had a good draw (T1 Dork, T2 Knight for Amulet, T3 Prime Speaker). Game 2 went mega long. They had trinket mage grabbing pithing needle for my prime speaker, then they landed a turn 6(!!) titan after having played a path and a radiant flames to wipe away a lot of my stuff (including my magus of the moon, and i had boarded out witness). At this point, i have a choice. I can use Shaman to grab knight of autumn, remove coalition relic, meaning my opp would have just titan and 2 available mana (had a pact to pay for). Or, get knight and remove pithing needle. Or just jam a prime speaker and hope i untap with the shaman to grab knight (i only had 4 mana available). I could also get deputy to remove titan, but know that im basically dead and buried by a removal spell then. I chose to take them off some mana, but I think Prime Speaker and make them have it was the line. It goes quite a bit longer before I eventually die to infinite interaction off of their t-wests (double EE and Ballista) and trinket mage (needle).
Game 3 is a littleeee less exciting, but some really good play from my opp all the same (he played really well for all 3 games). Its pretty quickly estabilished that we're both racing, as I go T1 Dork, T2 spellskite that got pathed, T3 Prime Speaker. They make an amulet, but are missing any more ramp (or a bounceland, 1 or the other). T2-T3 they just make land drops, so i am predicted path or something. T4 they tap out for azusa, play a bounce land 3 times and make a titan, and go into the tank. It turns out they had infinite options. They know pact of negation isnt worth getting. But they have trinket mage in hand so attack with titan and then get double-bounce so they can make mage into needle naming speaker. I have deputy of detention, remove needle and win. But, they did naturally have ballista in hand, which could have removed my dork. However, in that spot, I could deputy the ballista then play a fauna shaman (thanks to the ramp from path) to combo from there. I basically had the nuts for that particular hand of my opponents.
Match 2 vs UR Control - won in 2, dont remember the details, but game 1 was a quick win (i didnt even know what i was facing, just saw 3 lands and opt). I boarded as if they were storm and they lead T2 Titi. I paniced a bit, but spell pierce and eidolon were actually great. Makes me think I should run Eidolon vs UW Control. The good thing about it was that I could use fauna shaman + resto to respond to any spell they might have, so as long as i stayed ahead on board, i couldnt lose.
Match 3 vs Storm - won in 2, my opp kept a bad hand G1 and I had interaction in the form of eidolon (off shaman), into spellskite, into kiki-jiki. I then just had to be careful and make sure i wasnt blown out by echoing truth.
Match 4 vs Humans - game 1 they dont have an answer to my Turn 4 Prime Speaker, so I use a fauna shaman and a courser to chump block some big champions and untap and win. Game 2 a Fiery Justice clears up 2 bobs and a champion of the parish, then the follow-up kitesail x2 and tax-thalia did nothing and i took over with shaman + squee (they scooped very quickly).
Currently 4-0
Match 5 vs Grixis Control with Titi - Basically, the deck destroyed me Game 1. They had lots of removal but they didnt even have to rush to use it, because they have a titi just sitting there. Eventually they go bolt flip titi, snap bolt, swing win.
Game 2 is closer(ish), but I get stuck on 2 lands, a scryb ranger and a bop, with shaman + squee active. But they have counter-magic and titi, and i just cant get going. I eventually die on Turn 8 having never made land drop 3. I had a decent chance if i could get moving, since i had cards like scryb ranger to block titi and resto to protect it. Had an uncastable Deputy because the BOP came back to hand. That felt bad.
Last 3 leagues are 5-0, 2-3, 4-1. Pretty good, 11-4 is pretty reasonable imo.