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  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    IMHO, the real problem with blue control strategies is that counterspells are just completely outclassed by the family of black discard spells that let you see your opponent's hand and remove a card (Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, Duress...).

    Think about it-
    • Both trade a card for a card, but the black discard spells are proactive, not reactive.
    • The black discard spells give you knowledge of your opponent's hand. The importance of this cannot be overstated.
    • The black discard spells cost a single mana! The decent blue counterspells are 2-4 mana.

    Now imagine a format without these spells. Do you think blue control decks would have a more prominent place in the meta?

    If there is a problem, it's that there is too much power in the single black mana "see your hand and take away a card" spells.

    A format without discard spells and with our same degree of bad countermagic would be even more linear than it is now. It's really puzzling to me that people think the solution to Modern's linearity is to remove the interactive discard spells. I understand that blue mages can be frustrated with their pet decks' statuses, but have some perspective. Removing the best police cards in Modern doesn't magically make the worse police cards better. It just makes all the stuff that was policed better. We see this throughout Modern's history. Removing Twin didn't make the other UR decks better; they were bad to begin with. Removing Nacatl didn't suddenly make non-Nacatl aggro better; they were bad options to begin with too.


    I hardly think that someone attempting to force a thought experiment is a cry to remove them but is instead to enlighten people as to the impact they actually have on how formats play out and what types of strategies are viable.

    I'm in favor of WotC printing spells that would actually rival TS/IoK in other colors preferably U since controlling elements is supposed to be a segment of its slice of the color pie that it is intended to excel at. But TS/IoK are the status quo and I doubt that if a new non-black attrition based spell that rivaled and competed for deck space in a meaningful way it would be rejected and banned after the out cries of people being mad that suddenly their targeted discard is slightly diminished in its status as best thing.

    I agree with the rest of your statement entirely, getting rid of TS/IoK wouldn't make Remand a suddenly fantastic option.

    It goes to show just how busted the Twin combo really was as it made what is otherwise a pile of under powered cards seem like a T1 deck.

    Your Nacatl point is kind of off base a bit as Pod infinite life combo actually kept linear aggro decks in check, it wasn't Twin like some would like to insist. If you look at the meta-game shares Post Pod banning you see both Burn and Infect start to creep up month after month until they are both solidly T1. Twin did nothing to stop linear aggro-combo decks as going under the Twin combo with your own broken/ hyper fast linear kill was is a very viable strategy against the Twin deck since going under Combo's is great way to beat them and going under Tempo-Control is a great way to beat that angle of the deck also.

    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from wpgstevo »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Single most reasonable comment on what unbanning SFM would mean ......We don't know (gasps and screams fill the forum)
    It's rather pedantic to note that the exact effect of SFM entering the format is unknown. Obviously, we can only playtest (as many have done) and theorize. I have never seen a report from an individual who, upon playtesting SFM, has concerns that the card itself is problematic insofar as the lines of play are concerned. Without exception, every single objection to SFM from individuals who test it have been reserved for how other decks would respond to SFM's presence - a topic with even more uncertainty than the direct effect SFM might have.

    Contrast this with the admitted little-to-nothing WotC does for testing in modern, and you might see why individuals feel they have a better grasp on the issue than those purporting to manage the format.

    If you hold everything up to the standard of "we must be 100% certain of the outcome before we unban" then nothing will ever fulfill that criteria. That is the same as saying nothing should ever be unbanned, a position with little support.

    It has been discussed ad nauseam why SFM is theoretically safe, and all testing data I've ever seen has confirmed that. According to the testing data, SFM is broadly on the same level as cards seeing play in the tier 1 decks that might consider running SFM (meaning little or no net gain for tier 1 decks), with some more granular benefits and drawbacks when you go into the details. Where SFM really offers more to the metagame is when you consider the cards it would replace in tier 2-3+ strategies.


    Not when you have people claiming with absolute certainty that they know exactly what impact it would have. And the "response" other decks would have is part of the affect it would have on the meta-game. They go in tandem and you cannot have one without the other, it doesn't matter if I can design and test a deck that has Punishing Fire and that the deck I made looks fair and fine in regards to lines of play etc... the actual concern is the second point, what affect would Punishing fire have on the overall meta-game? That is the only real important aspect of the question not how does it look in some narrow testing I did.


    I would also argue that testing a card like SFM is essentially useless as you did not redesign every deck and establish a actual reflection of what other decks will look like. This is why I said that those types of articles are interesting and can help form opinions but they actually show nothing in regards to the potential risk of any given card.

    I play lots of NBL Modern and I actually use SFM a lot, am I supposed to extrapolate that because I SB out my MM more often than my SFM that MM is a safer unban because in a format where everything is legal MM is less useful than SFM? I don't think so.

    Also I do not hold a position of 100% certainty, I posted earlier just above or below the comment you responded to about how WotC made a risk assessment of SoM and took the gamble and it so far has turned out fine, same with AV and GGT. GGT was fine until they made Amalgam and friends, so it actually had a very low risk at the time of the unbanning. So I don't appreciate the insinuation that I hold such a view.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Quote from gkourou »
    No changes was a good call. Let us have some unbans at the next time.


    Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.

    Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.

    It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.


    I don't think the community is embracing unbanning SFM. Just a particular portion of it.


    I'd say that the "what cards do you want unbanned" poll shows otherwise. Same with the posts here. Most of the reliable, level headed posters (not that I am one by any means) have all been here saying they don't really care either way but admit it looks totally harmless now. The few posts that have been skeptical of it's unbanning have generally been shot down immediately.

    That's the thing though, Wizards doesn't operate on this information (or the reality of a card's true strength). They operate on the image and perception of a card combined with the thoughts and feelings of a very select few "pros" and "insiders" using vague and general terms and questions. Remember, having these kinds of conversations openly or with too many people will give too much information to the public about what cards they are looking at banning/unbanning and would cause confusion and panic. So they rely on what they *think* the card does and how they *feel* it would impact the format. This wouldn't be so bad if they didn't display gross negligence or complete incompetence when it comes to the Modern format, how it operates, the flow of the metagame, or even basic deck construction. Remember, we're talking about a guy who thought Sword of the Meek would break Lantern Control and that Temur and Jeskai decks would rise up in the void, even though Grixis had two established archetypes at the time...


    Also remember that in this forum the oh so wise collective said things like "banning probe isn't going to kill Infect"..."or Bloo" "they will still be competitive just slightly slower", where are all of the "twin ban was unjust/warranted/a conspiracy by a evil cabal" lamenting the death of Infect as a T1 U deck?

    I would not characterize WotC in such a dismissive and some what slanderous way, they obviously make a estimation based on the 20 something years experience in handling the game and attempt to formulate reasonable hypothesis. The fact that they unbanned SoM regardless of a hypothesis that it might put Lantern over the top only shows that they will make such a hypothesis and measure and make a reasonable risk analysis and if it seems low enough will pull the trigger on the experiment. Are they perfect? No and not because they are incompetent or grossly negligent but because we are all human and capable of being wrong.

    The fact is that not a single one of us has knowledge of "a cards true strength" if it has been banned and hasn't seen play in the format. All we have are likely far less informed hypothesis regarding what would occur and really to claim otherwise it to pretend to have knowledge that not you nor I nor any other player posting in here can possibly have.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Great no changes just like I predicted.

    SFM isn't getting off the list, its rise in play in Legacy recently is pushing it back into fulfilling the "don't want it in modern because of legacy" standard that put it MM and JtmS. Just because some players want to arbitrarily ignore this this rationality doesn't mean WotC will.

    I hope when they say the new core set will be designed differently that they mean it will not be designed as a draft ing set but only a constructed design in mind
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Boy people in this forum are some chicken little types, every event something new is falling out of the sky.

    come back in 6 months to year with sustained results like this and then we can start considering perhaps a ban is needed.

    I hate that people instantly jump to comparing things like Grixis Shadow to Twin and trying to build up a false equivalency between then. Twin was around for years and nothing WotC did to curb it worked so yes a ban was needed.

    Glade that the results however bolster all of the statements I have been making about the meta-game
    Grixis best of the DS decks because its better in the Mirror.
    Pretty much everything else is either highly redundant or deck that can ignore TS/IoK(Eldrazitron dodges IoK and Push)

    We do it because Wizards loves banning things. Compare the number of bans to unbans since the format's birth. See how they've tried to fix the Standard problem. See how many bans to unbans they've had in the past 2-3 years. On the one hand, I don't like ban mania and try to push back against it. On the other hand, when decks have actual datapoints which appear to line up with previous Wizards bans, people justifiably get nervous even if the deck doesn't feel like it should get banned.


    It is pretty absurd to attempt to draw a comparison between a deck like Twin which literally had years of data to a singular event in which a deck put up great numbers. A single instance of a occurrence proves absolutely nothing.

    I do disagree fundamentally with this notion that bannings cannot correct meta-games in a game like magic. While in general I am not for any cards being added to list or removed currently banning cards can fix certain types of issues in the meta-game. I don't think issues like "king of the hill" can be solved unless it is a clear singular card creating the outcomes, like Bloom was a great ban in this vein. While the banning of Bloom over all didn't "kill" the entire strategy it was so much better at what it does than any other option was able to achieve that it made the strategy much more over all easily dominated by fair.

    I also don't think that unbanning any particular card would be very beneficial regarding the types of issues that people tend to express concern regarding. I am of the opinion that WotC needs to print better non-creature spells and in some instances perhaps creature spells to help raise specific strategies and color representation. Most anything people consider unbanning slots into a BGx mid-range shell better than it does anything to actually bolster its own color identities representation as the primary color of a deck.

    This is by design and we need future design to correct it as the actual things needed to achieve say a primary Wxx or Uxx deck to be able to exist. They would still struggle with the reality that the plays available to them in the key turns in the format are seriously under powered when held in comparison to the options available in BG. This didn't occur by accident but was the out come of the entire format consisting of cards designed in a period intended to reorganize the game into one in which decks like the Rock are not piles of garbage.

    The only other real option would be banning a absurd amount of cards until the format is watered down enough to achieve that balance. but again that would be absurd as it is generally no one's desired outcome.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Boy people in this forum are some chicken little types, every event something new is falling out of the sky.

    come back in 6 months to year with sustained results like this and then we can start considering perhaps a ban is needed.

    I hate that people instantly jump to comparing things like Grixis Shadow to Twin and trying to build up a false equivalency between then. Twin was around for years and nothing WotC did to curb it worked so yes a ban was needed.

    Glade that the results however bolster all of the statements I have been making about the meta-game
    Grixis best of the DS decks because its better in the Mirror.
    Pretty much everything else is either highly redundant or deck that can ignore TS/IoK(Eldrazitron dodges IoK and Push)
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from xxhellfirexx3 »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Quote from xxhellfirexx3 »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Quote from xxhellfirexx3 »

    "I do fear that when standard gets better wizards will start interfering with modern to flush players back into standard."

    They are already doing a good job at that in how they are managing modern.


    How is that at all true, Modern by all measures has only gained in popularity year after year. And many of the bannings in the format have aided in this as it has allowed for less established decks become playable by IEDS.


    In some ways it is decent in some ways it is not. I guess that depends on how you look at it.


    do we all have aspirations for modern that currently haven't come to fruition sure.

    I personally would like to see U be good at the things its color is supposed to be good at, I don't think it will happen because great counters are not a aspect of Standard and great card draw hurts B based attrition strategies to much for it be allowed by the player base.

    I would like to see lots of things that just are not likely to ever happen because the game has changed so much since I started playing and WotC just doesn't produce the game to behave in those ways anymore.

    I would like to Modern move away from forced mulligans from hyper efficient cheap discard, as I don't think every game boiling down to top deck war by turn 4 is very skill intensive. Will not happen as people love those types of spells regardless of the impact it haves on the meta-game.


    Except this asperation shouldn't be aspired it should just BE.

    There should be colour balance and there should be archtype balance but there is not.

    I understand if someone wants Thier pet deck to get a new card/unban so it can be better. But this issue is much larger than that.



    I think that my aspiration for the most part don't line up with overall magic design. Most of the problems that the kind of strategies I enjoy suffer from is a kind of lost identity for U WotC decided that they wanted creature based mid-range to be the main draw for Standard. U being good in the ways it used to be was antithetical to mid-range strategies and I understand this on a game theory level but I would like for WotC to at least cycle through various phases of Strategic Dominance in Standard to help enrich non-attrition based mid-range.

    But that really is to my other point, I don't think that any new cards outside of this established norm would be acceptable to the player base. Part of IEDS relies on is the majority of players being happy or at least okay with the current situation in the Strategic Dominance spectrum of viable decks. Look at Treasure Cruise, the biggest crime it committed in Modern was that it invalidated all of the black based attrition decks, I think this would likely be true of any widely playable U modern card draw. Card draw in Modern is essentially only playable in a few types of decks UW can play Visions with a deck designed to try and make it to the late game, or mid-range Black based decks that run things like Painful Truths for the attrition mirrors and of course Bob. This is a identity crisis for U in Modern that I don't think would actually be accepted if reversed by WotC anyways as the one time in a long time that WotC printed a card powerful enough in U to make U a player in Modern it was rejected by the players.

    I don't see how we see WotC print Modern playable cards that don't in some way invalidate the very types of decks that the draw back in power level was designed to empower in first place? WotC has intentionally reduced the power level of essentially every thing in U's color identity because they are strong against the widely loved mid-range attrition strategies that are by design the main feature of most all modern decks.

    This is in my opinion one of the most informative articles written about modern MTG design and game theory.http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/midrange-archetype-2007-03-26

    I have had people criticize the dating of the article but I think it is actually the dating that makes it so informative as it was written at the time in magic design history that WotC started actively shifting the game into the direction it has headed ever since.

    I also think that the opinions of a person like Ken Nagle on the issue of Mid-range and MTG game theory such as the bits about what make mid-range bad.
    Nagle was and is still currently designing MTG sets, his credits are actually very enlightening when informed by his views given in the articles.
    designing, Morningtide, Eventide, Shards of Alara, Conflux, Zendikar, Woldwake, Morrodin Besieged, New Phyrexia, Magic 2012, Avacyn Restored, return to Ravinica, Theros, Born of the God, Khans of Tarkir, Fate Reforged, Oath of the Gatewatch, Shadows over Innistrad, Eldritch Moon, Aether Revolt, Hour of Devastation, and Ixalan.

    Sorry to put all that in but I want to deflect undue criticisms with a slight preemptive rebuttal.

    edit: revomed conspiracy from the list because I intentionally ignored every other non-Modern legal set or product he was on the design team for.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 3

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from xxhellfirexx3 »
    Quote from prismatic elf »
    Quote from KTROJAN »
    Quote from prismatic elf »
    Quote from KTROJAN »


    Do you play modern much or did you come here on a whim?
    Play all the time just don't think wizards need to ban anything anymore. Except in extreme situations like Eldrazi Winter.

    I can see the mods think I was coming from an evil place but I wasn't. I see you have a lot of post and have been playing awhile so I was trying to get an idea of where thought that considering many cards have been banned already after the last modern PT. Legacy/vintage is still ( seeing bans/restrictions too and they aren't a PT format and it's even less of a gp format than modern if I'm not mistaken. WOTC isn't just going to stop regulating the formats just because they aren't pt formats.
    It's all good. I just want a more hands off approach from wizards. I do fear that when standard gets better wizards will start interfering with modern to flush players back into standard.

    "I do fear that when standard gets better wizards will start interfering with modern to flush players back into standard."

    They are already doing a good job at that in how they are managing modern.


    How is that at all true, Modern by all measures has only gained in popularity year after year. And many of the bannings in the format have aided in this as it has allowed for less established decks become playable by IEDS.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from KTROJAN »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Quote from KTROJAN »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Quote from Ym1r »
    In said video he said he asked him 3 years ago or so. Also, we know, based on Aaron's tweet, that they are hearing the JTMS unbanning arguments and they would bring it up for discussion when modern is brought up.

    Regarding the SFM comment. No, that's not why SFM is banned. It was a problem for standard, it is not a problem for modern. They don't consider modern when printing new cards. Also keep in mind that literally ALL the equipments they have printed since Batterskull/swords are pathetic to say the least. There is not such thing as "inevitability of printing a more busted card thatn Batterskull".


    SFM, JtmS and MM all received bans based on the same justifications and Standard performance wasn't the justification. It was that they were all Great in Legacy which is still true, even more so for SFM now that top is banned as top decks pushed SFM strategies out of the meta and we are seeing them return.

    Given the history of Magic it seems far more likely that they will inevitably print something else broken, because of course they said the same kind of never going to happen again things after Jitte and then Skull clamp.......thats kind of the problem with accidents that produce broken things they are not intentional so how can you intentionally not do something that you never had intended to do in the first place.


    You put a flag up on equipment as to make sure it doesn't slip through just like anything else in life. It's not like other things in the game there are only a select few every set so it's not hard to double and triple check them to be sure they're ok. Even more so now with a new test group in the works for feedback. Jitte is the reason sfm is good in legacy and it'll never be legal in modern.


    So only never make a mistake why didn't WotC think of that before.


    Have you ever ran a business? They did exactly like I said, they saw that they were wrong in what they thought was ok with equipment and flagged them as to be sure they don't have the issue anymore. Same thing they are now doing in standard. Once you see your issues you put a plan into effect to stop it.


    The make things like clamp, say won't happen again, make things like jitte say it won't happen again, make BS say it won't happen again.....

    Have I ever ran a business? What a non sequitur. Design errors are always going to occur in a complex game like MTG its not as if every other instance of bad card designs had been developed with the intended consequences of making the game bad for a period? Part of playing this game for a long time is recognizing that WotC will occasionally just mess up, its to be expected when you are designing thousands of new unique elements to system on a yearly basis. After all they are humans and mistakes happen and I still play the game, maybe less when a mistake makes it overwhelmingly miserable. The chances for negative unintended consequences are even higher for a format like Modern given that they do not test for the format at all and as Treasure Cruise showed recently something can be completely fine for Standard and a black hole that warps modern around it. And the risk of Treasure Cruise wasn't lost on WotC as functional ancestrals have always been dangerous and powerful(brainstorm for example) but WotC still goes back to bite at the apple time and time again because they have to or the game will get boring.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from KTROJAN »
    Quote from bizzycola »
    Quote from Ym1r »
    Quote from Varyag »
    Regarding JTMS, a recent Channel Fireball video has one of the hosts mentioning that he asked Forsythe about the possibility of an unban. The answer was "never". Not only due to balance issues but because of how hard it would be to ban such an expensive card again should it prove necessary. Not worth it for WotC.
    In said video he said he asked him 3 years ago or so. Also, we know, based on Aaron's tweet, that they are hearing the JTMS unbanning arguments and they would bring it up for discussion when modern is brought up.

    Regarding the SFM comment. No, that's not why SFM is banned. It was a problem for standard, it is not a problem for modern. They don't consider modern when printing new cards. Also keep in mind that literally ALL the equipments they have printed since Batterskull/swords are pathetic to say the least. There is not such thing as "inevitability of printing a more busted card thatn Batterskull".


    SFM, JtmS and MM all received bans based on the same justifications and Standard performance wasn't the justification. It was that they were all Great in Legacy which is still true, even more so for SFM now that top is banned as top decks pushed SFM strategies out of the meta and we are seeing them return.

    Given the history of Magic it seems far more likely that they will inevitably print something else broken, because of course they said the same kind of never going to happen again things after Jitte and then Skull clamp.......thats kind of the problem with accidents that produce broken things they are not intentional so how can you intentionally not do something that you never had intended to do in the first place.


    You put a flag up on equipment as to make sure it doesn't slip through just like anything else in life. It's not like other things in the game there are only a select few every set so it's not hard to double and triple check them to be sure they're ok. Even more so now with a new test group in the works for feedback. Jitte is the reason sfm is good in legacy and it'll never be legal in modern.


    So only never make a mistake why didn't WotC think of that before.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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