Every GP and major event, we see people predicting that various linear decks will overperform and that control will suck. In most cases, they are wrong and we see control do just fine with extensive midrange/combo/aggro/big mana/etc. diversity alongside. When that happens, we always hear the same justifications: "event wasn't representative," "control secretly still sucks'" "wait until next big event," etc. Then in those few cases where linear decks are clearly better, we see similar and related claims: "told you so," "this the true metagame," "ban _____"' etc. We've seen this for years.
It turns out if you predict every Modern event will be dominated by linear decks, you'll be right at least a few times and most people (yourself included) will forget/ignore the majority of missed predictions. This doesn't make the linear predictions good ones, nor does it say anything about Modern. It just means you're betting on snake-eyes every round and you'll eventually be right.
My prediction is that Hartford will have the same diversity we've seen at basically every event in 2018 and most of the 2017 events. People will be able to reframe that diversity to prove whatever point they are trying to make. For example, if a blue deck doesn't T8, "blue is bad." If it T8s but loses to a linear deck, it will "expose blue's Modern weaknesses" (i.e. "blue is bad"). If it wins, people will look to conversion rates and find them lacking, rationalizing the win as "running hot" (i.e. "blue is bad"). And if blue is categorically dominant all GP, people will say "it's an outlying event and blue is, you guessed it, secretly still bad". As with the other arguments, we've seen these ones for years too.
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern Archives -
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AnImAr_ posted a message on Planeswalker DecksTeferi has a child. Makes sense though. Can't be going around the multiverse looking like Idris Elba and not having someone that'll let you phase them out.Posted in: The Rumor Mill
*planeswalks away* -
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schindar posted a message on Dominaria promos (Spanish only)Siiiiii!!!! Nuevo Doom Blade es MUY sexy!!! Vive la Caer en el Olivido!!!! Andale Andale! Arriba Arriba! Yo quiero Taco Bell!!!Posted in: The Rumor Mill
Warning for spam -
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Spsiegel1987 posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Oh. No. Hate cards for unfair things that had limited hate. How tragic. I enjoyed watching my opponent win on my turn 2.Posted in: Modern Archives
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from h0lydiva »Tron has been kept in check by people not playing it near the amount they should have.
This just doesn't hold water. Tron is not even close to a secret best deck. It's widely regarded by many vocal players, pros, and authors as one of the most broken and iconic Modern decks. If people aren't showing up at top tables with it, it's not because it's an undiscovered secret. It's because the deck just isn't well-positioned as people clam it is. Indeed, in the recent B&R update, Wizards even described it as one of the 4 most-played decks. People know the deck is good and are playing it a lot. If they aren't succeeding and making it to the top tables, it's because metagame factors are beating them, not ignorance of Tron's true potential.
Re: MTGO Challenge
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-challenge-2018-02-18
How are the ridiculous and apocalyptic predictions going? Not so well! Surprise surprise.
-Gx Tron decks in the T8? 1, and it didn't win.
-Gx Tron decks in the T32? 2 total.
-Valakut decks in the T8 and T32? 0 total.
-JTMS in the T8? 2 different decks (Grixis and Taking Turns).
-Non-JTMS blue decks in T8? 1 GDS, which everyone said was dead.
-Non-JTMS blue decks in T32? 1 UR Kiki.
-Distinct JTMS decks in T32? 6 JTMS decks, all different: UR Thing, UR Breach, Temur Midrange, UW Control, Grixis Control, Taking Turns
JTMS isn't dominating, blue decks aren't all using JTMS, JTMS isn't homogenizing blue decks, JTMS decks aren't overpowered, big mana isn't on the rise, etc. etc. As usual, the measured and analytic approach to Modern is winning out again over the sensationalist "gut feel" hyperbole.
Re: GP Lyon
LOL @ Tron losing to Abzan in the T8. LOL again @ all Trons being out in the quarterfinals. Looks like we have more datapoints of good players on midrange decks (e.g. Duke) beating the unbeatable matchup when the stakes are high.
Re: Tron hate
This wanton Tron hate needs to chill out. At this point, it's just a meme with basically no evidence to support it. If you don't like Tron and its current performances, you probably should not be playing Modern. Wizards has been extremely vocal and clear over the last year stating that the format is healthy. See October 2017 for the actual quote. See February 2018 for the unban in a healthy Modern. If you do not like Tron's prevalence in those metagame snapshots, then your vision of the format is fundamentally misaligned with Wizards'. This puts a double burden on your arguments; first, to prove that Tron is actually unhealthy, and second, to prove that Wizards' position is wrong. If you want to adopt this stance then do so, but we need to stop the one-liner anti-Tron comments as if they are gospel. They are just niche opinions by vocal, lifelong dissenters at this point. -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from Ym1r »Benjamin Nicolich just stated at an SCG interview on stream that "Jace is too strong for Modern, he will be gone in six months". It seems like the idea that Jace is gonna break everything is quite popular among SCG players (although not all).
Many SCG players thrive on controversial, hyperbolic, and polarizing comments. It's epidemic in many SCG articles, probably because it has a favorable ratio of low-energy to high view count. It's just easy to jump on some kind of bandwagon (anti-Tron, anti-JTMS, pro-FOTM deck, etc.) and ride it than to carve out a unique opinion based on extensive testing or analysis of results. Also, as we see on these forums all the time, it's always tempting to make an outrageous claim for "I told you so" points later and to make a confident hype-generating quotable now. That's what we saw for the last year when people who actually tried to read the format in a measured, analytic manner saw "no changes/bans" coming in every period.
Players can fight back against this sensationalism by arguing against it online and in game shops, not giving clicks/views to bad articles, and not repeating comments that don't warrant repetition. How much of the "ban x" talk really panned out? Basically none. See Company, Temple, all things Tron, Bridge, Moon, SSG, Opal, DS, Wraith, fetchlands, 8th/9th edition, Goryo's, Stirrings, Baral, PiF, TS, etc. Clowny Magic personalities suggest these kinda of bans all the time, get echoed as such cool/edgy/decisive/insightful gurus of the format. They are almost always just plain wrong and are no more insightful than the average Twitch chat memer. Let's not give them more credibility. -
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JESUSSAYSNO posted a message on State of Standard Thread: bans, format health, metagame, rotation, etc!Good changes. RR and Energy have been extremely dominant. Hitting one without the other doesnt fix the problem.Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
Actually seeing a metagame develop will be a good thing. Players upset at the bannings should consider the health of the format before their own dollar.
I do agree with the criticisms of needing to ban energy in the first place. Kaladesh hasnt been a fun or good standard set in almost any regard since its launch from my understanding. CoCo pushed me away from standard, and I returned recently, often my standard tournaments wouldnt even fire. If this is the case globally, bannings are a good thing. This is emergency surgery, it'll do short term damage, but ultimately help the pre-rotation format more than a lot of players realize.
This would all be a non-issue if standard sets had many powerful cards like they did prior to Theros. Modern and Legacy can adapt to new cards due to their vast pool of answers, and when standard is a good format and the rotations are slower, people are willing to pay for expensive decks. The format didnt really get cheaper when card quality dropped, the price of standard cards that won't be useful post rotation is the same as the cards that are now modern staples, that existed in standard, when they were in standard. Print an odd half dozen cards people will play in eternal formats per set, raise the baseline power level of cards, knock it off with the ETB effect cards, and then things like energy won't ever come up, and the health of the format is raised fairly dramatically.
Good bans, good for the format, doesnt fix format problems. Standard isnt appealing because very few of the cards have any sticking power in eternal formats. -
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spike4972 posted a message on Temporary State of the Meta Thread (Rules Update 7/17/17)That's the thing I seem to disagree with a lot of people on. Deck space itself is a resource. And storm may be a combo deck that only needs to hit5-6 mana and cast Gifts with a reduced in play to win, but so much deck space has to be dedicated to making this happen that it stops you from doing many other things. So, the deck has expended almost all of the deck space resource just on trying to win and is left without enough of that resource to run a bunch of disruption and stuff.Posted in: Modern Archives -
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user-8450289 posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)If you guys hate Tron that much, build a f*cking storm/company combo deck and gg, you have 70%++ win rate vs Tron.Posted in: Modern Archives
When you play modern, you accept to have good and Bad matchups. So please stop crying 24/24 7/7 that your pet deck cant Beat the whole meta because no decks Can. Thats what modern is.
If you think Tron is degenerate, toxic or whatever just play it for some Time. I bet you will then cry about how unfair and stupid is burn/storm/ad nauseam or any other *****ty matchups.
I dont find death shadow being problematic on modern, what makes the deck good is not only DS but DS + wraith + the ***** ton of discards and pressure cards.
If you really hate DS that much, go play a fast blood Moon or chalice for 1 deck. Ez.
But we all know the only things you want guys is go have your unbeatable blue deck.
If you want it that bad, go play in legacy. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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The difference between humans vs Death and Taxes / Merfolk is that it cannot play colored non-creature cards.
No Stony Silence, no Rest in Peace, no spreading seas, no counterspells.
You could argue they are not needed, but it is still a difference.
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The cards they just banned are dirt cheap.
Duals will keep their value for sure.
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// 19 Creature
3 Slimefoot, the Stowaway
4 Sporecrown Thallid
4 Tendershoot Dryad
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Yavimaya Sapherd
4 Saproling Migration
// 15 Instant
3 Spore Swarm
4 Fungal Infection
4 Vicious Offering
4 Fatal Push
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Woodland Cemetery
5 Swamp
9 Forest
Here's the list I'm currently running.
Tendershoot Dryad is bonkers
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Its fine in limited, but Vraska's Contempt has it beat in many ways for standard
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Agreed. If this is the standard going forward, we are going to see very healthy standard formats and a lot of cards that could possibly break it into modern, but nothing that breaks standard or modern
Set design's influence is shining through very brightly in this set
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If chess tournaments can do it, Magic can too
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There will exist adequate interaction for this archetype
The same could be said for storm, although that archetype already had a hate card any deck could run: Mindbreak Trap
Also can't believe they printed another mox. This one looks very difficult to break, however, compared to all previous ones.
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Or perhaps humans has taken up the slot that aggro-combo used to hold?
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Absolutely agree. There is no harm in printing effects like these, and they would be surely welcome. Let's hope Play Design is working closely with designers and developers to do just that.