Their prevalence, and that of Twin, might mean that we just don't have a good meta for our deck anymore.
The mana dork version might have a weak matchup vs. Twin, but I actually loved seeing the person across the table from me fetch a Steam Vents on turn 1. Dorkless beats that deck up down and sideways.
A t3 Rhino into a t4 Liege is not beating a Karn, or a t3 Prime Time or a t4 Splinter Twin. You can go the GW Beatdown path if you want to, that's fine. But it has extremely bad matchups against combo (if we're assuming you curve out perfectly can we assume their deck operates perfectly too?)
I actually may pop out a couple Forest for a couple Llanowar Wastes - that's a pretty good suggestion. I might then swap out the Sunpetal Grove for a Razorverge Thicket (since it'll make hands of Waste+Thicket a snap keep). Even WITH that manabase, you'll still have borderline or unkeepable hands, but that's part of playing basics as a concession to Blood Moon. I guess if you wanted perfect mana you'd rip out the utility lands and basics and just run more fetches, but hey that's not a thing you can do in modern.
This was honestly my first round of paper magic since probably last August. I wasn't used to it so I played pretty slowly. Game 1 he had a Delver out that refused to flip and I eventually ran over him with big creatures and Rhino burn. Game 2 I made a greedy play where he had 3 pyro tokens and 2 unflipped delvers, and my options were either to cast rhino or to pop an EE I had on 0. If I played the Rhino and they both flipped, I lost exactly. I gambled and got burnt. Game 3 started with like 5 minutes left, I had sufficient creatures out (but no Rhino sadly) and he had a turn 2 Pyro that basically just chumped my guys until time. 0-0-1 was an auspicious start because I got put in the weird draw bracket and at a GP with 3,800 people a draw is as good as a loss. Kind of salty about this one because I needed 3 or 4 more turns but I know he was basically dead.
Round 2 - Burn
Not much to say here. I won the die roll and was fortunate to play turn 3 Finks turn 4 Rhino w/o worrying about Skullcrack. Game 2 he played Guide on turn 1 and 2 and that was basically that. Game 3 I curved out nicely with a pair of Finks and a Rhino and he only had one crack effect. 1-0-1
Round 3 - Grixis Twin
Game 1 he mulled and (based on my life pad) I must've curved out something like Inquisition, Smiter, Rhino, Liege. Game 2 I got him to 2 life, was out of removal anyway, so I tried to Rhino and he Remanded it. He then slammed Twin. Game 3 was much more back and forth but I drew enough removal to keep him off the combo and eventually got through his creatures. 2-0-1
Round 4 - Grixis Delver
Game 1 I kept a 2-land hand on the play like a moron and didn't draw a 3rd land until the game was over. I had a hand full of Finks and Rhinos mocking me. Game 2 was another of those "curve out perfectly" games where his life total drops by 8 on my pad a couple times before he scoops. Game 3 I draw an EE and a Rhino to get around his Pyro tokens and outrace his flipped Delver. 3-0-1
Round 5 - Junk
Game 1 my opponent had Thoughtseize and a pair of Paths for my early plays. I basically just didn't have any gas and he kept drawing it. Game 2 I got up to 29 life and had him at 7, then he stabilized behind a Tasigur that was flipping god-tier activations (my choices every turn were either path, decay or lili). He even commented on how busted of a card Tasigur is. 3-1-1
Round 6 - Junk
Well, I was now playing for my GP life. I lost both games in pretty similar fashion as the first. Early disruption stripped my removal and they were smart enough to not tick up Lili. Game 2 we had a crazy board stall where neither of us really had anything left but he managed to topdeck a Tasigur while I kept ripping lands and using it to refuel and kill me. 3-2-1
Round 7 - UW Faeries/Control
Decided to stick it out and play for pride. I run into a guy playing a UW deck with Spellstutter Sprite and Cliques, but also things like Dragonlord Ojutai, Sphinx's Revelation and Supreme Verdict. Game 1 I go Inquisition into Voice into Finks and he just gets smacked in the face. Game 2 I Scullered him to see 2 Verdicts and a Rev. I drew a Lingering Souls so I basically forced him to Verdict that, played a Smiter and Souls and forced him to Verdict that, then beat his face with a Wildwood and another Smiter. I topdecked an Ooze the turn before he cast Snapcaster for a desperation Verdict and that sealed it up. 4-2-1
Round 8 - Temur Twin
Game 1 I saw Stomping Ground into Mana Confluence and commented I hadn't seen either of those lands yet today. He offhandedly said it was a homebrew. On his turn 3 he decided to Pyroclasm my pair of Voices, and a Liege on my turn 4 meant he took 10 damage that turn and scooped after drawing. I boarded assuming he was on Jeskai Combo, but a Thoughtseize in Game 2 revealed him to be on Temur Twin. He had to desperation combo, which I had the path for, so we shook hands and talked about his "brew" some more. 5-2-1
Round 9 - Empty Chair
No show for the final round. Was kinda bummed honestly. 6-2-1
I was pretty upset about missing the cut for day 2, mostly because it was entirely down to my slow play in my first match. But I went into my first GP hoping to just be alive by round 5, and I definitely succeeded in that regard. Plus my friend on Melira combo (who ended up t8) was undefeated heading into day 2 so I was super happy for him. Then, thinking it was only going to be a few rounds, I registered for the...
Super Sunday Series
Round 1 - Grixis Twin
Game 1 I mulled and kept a 1-lander on the play, not much of a game. Game 2 he mulled twice and I went Inquisition->Sculler->Sculler and he scooped. Game 3 was such a bad beat. I kept a reasonable hand w/ just Plains+Gavony on the draw and a bunch of action. This meant I couldn't play around Blood Moon at all and I eventually got to 4 lands. I untapped and drew a Thoughtseize, so I Inquisitioned him, which he responded to by playing his Pestermite to join his Clique on board vs my Smiter. He then remanded my IoK and showed me a hand of Twin and a fetch. I then laughed a little, cast Thoughtseize and took his Twin. At this point I had a Rhino and Liege in hand and could've easily out-raced his threats. Unfortunately he ripped a Blood Moon, locking me completely out. My only out was to runner-runner Forest into EE for 3, but when my next draw was a Windswept Heath I just scooped 'em up. 0-1
Round 2 - Infect
Only 250 people and 9 rounds of swiss meant X-1 was still live for top 8 so I soldiered on. It helps that I resigned to basically play until my ride or I wanted to leave. Game 1 my opponent had a great hand and just splooged on me. Games 2 and 3 I just absolutely dominated, stripping his few threats and making quick work of him with my own. At one point he tried to Pierce my Decay, at which point I said uncounterable, and he just shrugged and toss the Pierce in the 'yard. 1-1
Round 3 - GR Tron
My opponent was a couple minutes late so the judge awarded him a game loss and told us to play a pre-board Game 2. He later told me he was late because he was in line to buy a foil Karn and Emrakul from a vendor and didn't hear the pairings go up. Game 2 he drops a turn 3 Karn which, as I'm sure you all know, is basically unbeatable for GBx. Wishing I had avoided tron all weekend, I then boarded for Game 3. He mulled, I IoK him turn 1 and see the following: Ugin, Wurmcoil, Sphere, Stirrings, Scrying, Tower. I thought about it for a second and realized my plan this game was a mana denial one, so I take the Sphere. He draws, plays Tower and casts a Star. Luckily, I have a Decay in hand, which I promptly cast on my turn 2, followed by a Smiter on turn 3. He drew another couple of cards, played nothing, and scooped. 2-1
Round 4 - BW Tokens
This guy was late but his bag got stolen so he wasn't given a game loss. Game 1 he overloaded my removal and got out of hand with an Angler+Vault. Game 2 I just drew my sideboard cards and rolled him over. I saw a Brimaz that game so I took out my Scoozes and put back in the Decays. Game 3 he ended up drawing something like 10 or 11 lands while I avoided Flooded and just beat him down after removing the little action he drew. 3-1
After that I dropped to grab lunch and drinks with my ride and his friend that lived nearby. I could've played another couple rounds before leaving for the airport but I wanted to spend some time with my friend who I don't see very often and I could've have played the top 8 anyway.
Thoughts
I know basic lands are a necessity but man are they brutal sometimes when you get the basic+colorless land draw. I'm not sure if dropping a Forest for a Swamp is correct, but given all of our t1 plays are black it might be. The only downside is we're kind of split on where to go from there...you want either GW or BW turn 2 and then basically nothing but green and white from there on out. Sculler was honestly probably my MVP, and the more I play with it the more I love the card. He's a bit more fragile w/ the Kologhan's Commands running around. With more Grixis colored stuff being played, Smiter actually felt a bit weaker than I thought he would. It's just so easy for him to eat a Terminate (or Path or Go for the Throat) that his uncounterable-ness felt a little weak. But then he's also a gigantic body so it's kind of a tradeoff. I'm glad I stuck with Scooze, even if he's a little trickier to resolve and protect now.
All in all, I had a great weekend and had a lot of fun. I'd also highly recommend going to a nearby event if RK Post is there. His tokens are the best.
BONUS PIC - The friend I rode up with got this alter done by Noah Bradley.
As someone who's played the exact same deck, I even think 95% is a bit of an over exaggeration. That or he's not accounting for things like flood/screw or just the general variance of the game. However, my winrate with the deck is somewhere in the 55-60% range across all the events I've played it in. That's including games where I get stuck on 3 lands, or games where I beat a burn player because he keeps a 1-lander and I ramp out with Voice->Smiter->Rhino and kill him.
I basically have the cards to play the version w/ dorks but have not yet. I'm also the Cocos off of playing Melira. But the deck feels stronger against the generic "combo" decks in the format than I'd assume either of those decks would be just because of all the hand disruption that exists. In fact, playing on MTGO has been fairly frustrating because I play against basically only against combo decks and don't get paired against decks this list performs very well against, like Junk or Jund or Twin.
IDK why I made this post so long other than to say I've played the deck, 95% feels inaccurate, but it's definitely good enough to win 55-60% of games. It's also better against the million dumb combo decks people are playing (like the dude I played against running Eggs or something) than I would assume a standard G/W beatdown deck would be. For example the deck Kibler played in the Modern week for SSL had basically no shot against unfair decks.
I've cashed a number of dailies. Unfortunately, wizards only posts the biggest event each day on their site so sites like MTGGoldfish only grab those. Here's the one that I've cashed AND has actually been archived.
I'm heading to the GP this weekend and I'm trying to debate in my head between Scooze (which I currently run), Leyline of the Void, and Rest in Peace.
Scooze
Pros - Minor amount of lifegain. Clock against decks that are creature-light.
Cons - Hard to resolve & stick around long enough to untap. The rest of our deck doesn't have many targets for Spell Snare, and Bolt+Command make it a hard life for Scooze.
Leyline
Pros - Harder to remove for Grixis decks. Hoses certain graveyard strategies in a much more absolute way.
Cons - Slower unless it's in your opener.
Rest in Peace
Pros - If you draw it later it removes everything. Same other pros as Leyline.
Cons - Resolving it vs Spell Snare. Hoses our own Finks+Voice.
I think I might still just roll with Ooze even though it seems really fragile. Ugh.
The mana dork version might have a weak matchup vs. Twin, but I actually loved seeing the person across the table from me fetch a Steam Vents on turn 1. Dorkless beats that deck up down and sideways.
I actually may pop out a couple Forest for a couple Llanowar Wastes - that's a pretty good suggestion. I might then swap out the Sunpetal Grove for a Razorverge Thicket (since it'll make hands of Waste+Thicket a snap keep). Even WITH that manabase, you'll still have borderline or unkeepable hands, but that's part of playing basics as a concession to Blood Moon. I guess if you wanted perfect mana you'd rip out the utility lands and basics and just run more fetches, but hey that's not a thing you can do in modern.
Main Event
Round 1 - Grixis Delver
This was honestly my first round of paper magic since probably last August. I wasn't used to it so I played pretty slowly. Game 1 he had a Delver out that refused to flip and I eventually ran over him with big creatures and Rhino burn. Game 2 I made a greedy play where he had 3 pyro tokens and 2 unflipped delvers, and my options were either to cast rhino or to pop an EE I had on 0. If I played the Rhino and they both flipped, I lost exactly. I gambled and got burnt. Game 3 started with like 5 minutes left, I had sufficient creatures out (but no Rhino sadly) and he had a turn 2 Pyro that basically just chumped my guys until time. 0-0-1 was an auspicious start because I got put in the weird draw bracket and at a GP with 3,800 people a draw is as good as a loss. Kind of salty about this one because I needed 3 or 4 more turns but I know he was basically dead.
Round 2 - Burn
Not much to say here. I won the die roll and was fortunate to play turn 3 Finks turn 4 Rhino w/o worrying about Skullcrack. Game 2 he played Guide on turn 1 and 2 and that was basically that. Game 3 I curved out nicely with a pair of Finks and a Rhino and he only had one crack effect. 1-0-1
Round 3 - Grixis Twin
Game 1 he mulled and (based on my life pad) I must've curved out something like Inquisition, Smiter, Rhino, Liege. Game 2 I got him to 2 life, was out of removal anyway, so I tried to Rhino and he Remanded it. He then slammed Twin. Game 3 was much more back and forth but I drew enough removal to keep him off the combo and eventually got through his creatures. 2-0-1
Round 4 - Grixis Delver
Game 1 I kept a 2-land hand on the play like a moron and didn't draw a 3rd land until the game was over. I had a hand full of Finks and Rhinos mocking me. Game 2 was another of those "curve out perfectly" games where his life total drops by 8 on my pad a couple times before he scoops. Game 3 I draw an EE and a Rhino to get around his Pyro tokens and outrace his flipped Delver. 3-0-1
Round 5 - Junk
Game 1 my opponent had Thoughtseize and a pair of Paths for my early plays. I basically just didn't have any gas and he kept drawing it. Game 2 I got up to 29 life and had him at 7, then he stabilized behind a Tasigur that was flipping god-tier activations (my choices every turn were either path, decay or lili). He even commented on how busted of a card Tasigur is. 3-1-1
Round 6 - Junk
Well, I was now playing for my GP life. I lost both games in pretty similar fashion as the first. Early disruption stripped my removal and they were smart enough to not tick up Lili. Game 2 we had a crazy board stall where neither of us really had anything left but he managed to topdeck a Tasigur while I kept ripping lands and using it to refuel and kill me. 3-2-1
Round 7 - UW Faeries/Control
Decided to stick it out and play for pride. I run into a guy playing a UW deck with Spellstutter Sprite and Cliques, but also things like Dragonlord Ojutai, Sphinx's Revelation and Supreme Verdict. Game 1 I go Inquisition into Voice into Finks and he just gets smacked in the face. Game 2 I Scullered him to see 2 Verdicts and a Rev. I drew a Lingering Souls so I basically forced him to Verdict that, played a Smiter and Souls and forced him to Verdict that, then beat his face with a Wildwood and another Smiter. I topdecked an Ooze the turn before he cast Snapcaster for a desperation Verdict and that sealed it up. 4-2-1
Round 8 - Temur Twin
Game 1 I saw Stomping Ground into Mana Confluence and commented I hadn't seen either of those lands yet today. He offhandedly said it was a homebrew. On his turn 3 he decided to Pyroclasm my pair of Voices, and a Liege on my turn 4 meant he took 10 damage that turn and scooped after drawing. I boarded assuming he was on Jeskai Combo, but a Thoughtseize in Game 2 revealed him to be on Temur Twin. He had to desperation combo, which I had the path for, so we shook hands and talked about his "brew" some more. 5-2-1
Round 9 - Empty Chair
No show for the final round. Was kinda bummed honestly. 6-2-1
I was pretty upset about missing the cut for day 2, mostly because it was entirely down to my slow play in my first match. But I went into my first GP hoping to just be alive by round 5, and I definitely succeeded in that regard. Plus my friend on Melira combo (who ended up t8) was undefeated heading into day 2 so I was super happy for him. Then, thinking it was only going to be a few rounds, I registered for the...
Super Sunday Series
Round 1 - Grixis Twin
Game 1 I mulled and kept a 1-lander on the play, not much of a game. Game 2 he mulled twice and I went Inquisition->Sculler->Sculler and he scooped. Game 3 was such a bad beat. I kept a reasonable hand w/ just Plains+Gavony on the draw and a bunch of action. This meant I couldn't play around Blood Moon at all and I eventually got to 4 lands. I untapped and drew a Thoughtseize, so I Inquisitioned him, which he responded to by playing his Pestermite to join his Clique on board vs my Smiter. He then remanded my IoK and showed me a hand of Twin and a fetch. I then laughed a little, cast Thoughtseize and took his Twin. At this point I had a Rhino and Liege in hand and could've easily out-raced his threats. Unfortunately he ripped a Blood Moon, locking me completely out. My only out was to runner-runner Forest into EE for 3, but when my next draw was a Windswept Heath I just scooped 'em up. 0-1
Round 2 - Infect
Only 250 people and 9 rounds of swiss meant X-1 was still live for top 8 so I soldiered on. It helps that I resigned to basically play until my ride or I wanted to leave. Game 1 my opponent had a great hand and just splooged on me. Games 2 and 3 I just absolutely dominated, stripping his few threats and making quick work of him with my own. At one point he tried to Pierce my Decay, at which point I said uncounterable, and he just shrugged and toss the Pierce in the 'yard. 1-1
Round 3 - GR Tron
My opponent was a couple minutes late so the judge awarded him a game loss and told us to play a pre-board Game 2. He later told me he was late because he was in line to buy a foil Karn and Emrakul from a vendor and didn't hear the pairings go up. Game 2 he drops a turn 3 Karn which, as I'm sure you all know, is basically unbeatable for GBx. Wishing I had avoided tron all weekend, I then boarded for Game 3. He mulled, I IoK him turn 1 and see the following: Ugin, Wurmcoil, Sphere, Stirrings, Scrying, Tower. I thought about it for a second and realized my plan this game was a mana denial one, so I take the Sphere. He draws, plays Tower and casts a Star. Luckily, I have a Decay in hand, which I promptly cast on my turn 2, followed by a Smiter on turn 3. He drew another couple of cards, played nothing, and scooped. 2-1
Round 4 - BW Tokens
This guy was late but his bag got stolen so he wasn't given a game loss. Game 1 he overloaded my removal and got out of hand with an Angler+Vault. Game 2 I just drew my sideboard cards and rolled him over. I saw a Brimaz that game so I took out my Scoozes and put back in the Decays. Game 3 he ended up drawing something like 10 or 11 lands while I avoided Flooded and just beat him down after removing the little action he drew. 3-1
After that I dropped to grab lunch and drinks with my ride and his friend that lived nearby. I could've played another couple rounds before leaving for the airport but I wanted to spend some time with my friend who I don't see very often and I could've have played the top 8 anyway.
Thoughts
I know basic lands are a necessity but man are they brutal sometimes when you get the basic+colorless land draw. I'm not sure if dropping a Forest for a Swamp is correct, but given all of our t1 plays are black it might be. The only downside is we're kind of split on where to go from there...you want either GW or BW turn 2 and then basically nothing but green and white from there on out. Sculler was honestly probably my MVP, and the more I play with it the more I love the card. He's a bit more fragile w/ the Kologhan's Commands running around. With more Grixis colored stuff being played, Smiter actually felt a bit weaker than I thought he would. It's just so easy for him to eat a Terminate (or Path or Go for the Throat) that his uncounterable-ness felt a little weak. But then he's also a gigantic body so it's kind of a tradeoff. I'm glad I stuck with Scooze, even if he's a little trickier to resolve and protect now.
All in all, I had a great weekend and had a lot of fun. I'd also highly recommend going to a nearby event if RK Post is there. His tokens are the best.
BONUS PIC - The friend I rode up with got this alter done by Noah Bradley.
I basically have the cards to play the version w/ dorks but have not yet. I'm also the Cocos off of playing Melira. But the deck feels stronger against the generic "combo" decks in the format than I'd assume either of those decks would be just because of all the hand disruption that exists. In fact, playing on MTGO has been fairly frustrating because I play against basically only against combo decks and don't get paired against decks this list performs very well against, like Junk or Jund or Twin.
IDK why I made this post so long other than to say I've played the deck, 95% feels inaccurate, but it's definitely good enough to win 55-60% of games. It's also better against the million dumb combo decks people are playing (like the dude I played against running Eggs or something) than I would assume a standard G/W beatdown deck would be. For example the deck Kibler played in the Modern week for SSL had basically no shot against unfair decks.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/289463#online
I'm heading to the GP this weekend and I'm trying to debate in my head between Scooze (which I currently run), Leyline of the Void, and Rest in Peace.
Scooze
Pros - Minor amount of lifegain. Clock against decks that are creature-light.
Cons - Hard to resolve & stick around long enough to untap. The rest of our deck doesn't have many targets for Spell Snare, and Bolt+Command make it a hard life for Scooze.
Leyline
Pros - Harder to remove for Grixis decks. Hoses certain graveyard strategies in a much more absolute way.
Cons - Slower unless it's in your opener.
Rest in Peace
Pros - If you draw it later it removes everything. Same other pros as Leyline.
Cons - Resolving it vs Spell Snare. Hoses our own Finks+Voice.
I think I might still just roll with Ooze even though it seems really fragile. Ugh.