Quote from spellcheck »Fact or Fiction is an iconic card and is probably on the level of the best reprints we'll see, but unless explicitly stated, I believe the buy-a-box promo card will be something completely new with mythic rarity. There have been some attempts at printing cards similar to Fact or Fiction (Steam Augury comes to my mind) and they've seen zero play. Why not have the original?
If as I read somewhere Cabal Therapist is among top10 cards of the expansion, I wouldn't get too hyped with it. I'd be less surprised if they accidentally print something already released as a Timeshifted card than if I have to buy 10 playsets of cards from Horizons.
it was stated on the announcement stream that the buy a box promo will be a new-to-modern reprint.
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This is what you want in grindy match-ups, in which there rarely are more than one creature and a card in both players' hands (although if you control a Liliana planeswalker, you're in a good position usually). And it always works against Boggles, no matter how many Leylines they have. One or two copies will become a staple in Shadow sideboards.
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As others pointed out, Faithless Looting (and Ancient Stirrings) are played in a wide variety of decks, so the problem must lie elsewhere, and it's the ability to get free effects: drawing cards for free, free mana acceleration, getting damage for free and most importantly, getting creatures (which are recurrent sources of damage after all) for free.
Possible solutions would be banning more (or all of them) of these free effects; printing better hate for them (Containment Priest, Planar Void...), or going the opposite direction and generalizing them: free life gain, free removal, free counterspells... In my opinion, this kind of effects belong in Legacy and not Modern, so if Modern Horizons can't stop them, I'd start to think about bans.
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Faithless Looting is a card I'd never want to see in my opening hand, and the best way to prevent that from happening is playing 0. I just lose a late game card selection spell or a card I'll be happy about milling with Thought Scour (and more often than not I'll have to delve with Angler). With Shadow, cards should be evaluated by their utility in the opening hand more than with other decks, as games are short and you're often mana screwed.
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I'd like to make a few comments on your sideboard plans.
Against UW Control you want Dismember to kill Colonnade and Lyra. Spellbomb is bad against opponents who might even bring Rest in Peace against you, so that's an easy switch.
Against Jund, Street Wraith can become a beater late game. It is true that cycling it against them is pretty bad, but Mishra's Bauble does more or less the same and can't attack. I'm not sure about how valuable are Denials against them.
Against Phoenix, your plan doesn't fold to opponent's Surgical Extraction on their own Phoenix, yet it's harder to make it work and less effective. Dunno if random Magma Spray (to look for budget options) could be effective; probably more in other decks. I'm not sold on the idea of letting them play first; even if they need lots of cards to work, we can still race them.
I don't have enough experience with this deck against Affinities, but I have the impression you're overboarding against them. Anger of the Gods is a nonbo with Lavamancer and Staticaster, and it's the worst card of the three, and Brutality doesn't do much either.
Nihil Spellbomb isn't the card you want to bring in the mirror match. You don't want to play it early to stop a possible Gurmag Angler, you don't want to wait with it to counter a possible Snapcaster Mage, so in the end it's just a two mana draw a card. Looking at cards in your sideboard, I think Spellskite would do more work there, if it weren't because people tend to board Kolaghan's Command as a value card... Even if Liliana of the Veil is meant for the mirror match, I think it usually gets decided before it can be played, so just be selective taking mulligans, something for which I agree it's better to be on the draw.
Against Dredge you forgot to list Anger of the Gods, but I guess that's something that mid tournament you'd realize and quickly correct. I also believe Spellskite could be included against them, as it blocks all their ground beaters and can counter a Conflagrate.
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The idea is good, but this card is better than Izzet Charm with an easier to pay mana cost. I'd downgrade it to choose between Dispel, Envelop, Unsummon and Opt to imagine it being printed.
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As for the challenges...
2: I understand some people might be uncomfortable playing Liliana at this spot when they're holding a hand with so many blue cards, but if you have her in your decklist, I can't think of a better time to play her than this scenario. Additionally, Liliana is the closest thing you have to discard to secure the risky play of Mistbind Clique with just a Mutavault to champion against a deck with Fatal Push. Casting turn 5 Mistbind Clique into turn 6 ultimate isn't aiming for the long game, but for establishing a board position from which the Tron player should never be able to recover. What you shouldn't do is playing Creeping Tar Pit pass, holding mana up to Mana Leak an Ancient Stirrings/Sylvan Scrying/Expedition Map/Oblivion Stone; this play does not advance your game plan at all, and you can't chicken out of a Fatal Push. Might consider it if you have Bitterblossom into play (hence the reason why so many people complain they can only win if they resolve an early Bitterblossom).
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Challenge 1:
You're at 2 life against a Burn opponent, who's finally run out of cards. It's your main phase turn 5 and you only have Creeping Tar Pit, Island and Darkslick Shores into play, and 2 Vendilion Clique, Spellstutter Sprite, Fatal Push, Bitterblossom and Mistbind Clique in hand. He's dealt 6 damage himself through the game. Choose your play. Is it still possible to win?
Challenge 2:
Now against Tron, it's turn 3 and you feel safe on the play after playing Spreading Seas on your opponent's first Tron land and then him playing Blooming Marsh. He also has a Expedition Map into play. You have Creeping Tar Pit, Polluted Delta, Island, Liliana of the Veil, Mana Leak, Cryptic Command and Mistbind Clique in hand and Mutavault and Darkslick Shores into play. How do you sequence your next turns? I think this one needs no clues.
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3 Vendilion Clique
3 Mistbind Clique
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Opt
4 Fatal Push
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
2 Remand
3 Mana Leak
2 Cryptic Command
2 Liliana of the Veil
4 Polluted Delta
4 Darkslick Shores
4 Mutavault
3 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Secluded Glen
1 Field of Ruin
2 Watery Grave
3 Island
1 Swamp
3 Spreading Seas
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Collective Brutality
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Countersquall
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Spell Snare
1 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Batterskull
I took it to a tournament this weekend and went 6-0: 2-1 against 8Rack, 2-1 against Titanshift (with Through the Breach), 2-0 against Burn, 2-0 against Titanshift, 2-1 against BG Tron and 2-1 against Titanshift again: a very varied metagame.
About the low number of lands, I was mana screwed in just two games (not counting the ones against 8Rack), and still managed to win one of them against Burn, so eventually I lost as many games to misplays than to extreme bad luck. On the sideboard, Spreading Seas turned out to be better than expected. I'm also happy I could set up the combination of Liliana of the Veil into Mistbind Clique, which I never had, despite knowing these two cards pair with each other pretty well for years.
About how to play the deck, just get the habit of counting how many turns can it take you to win the game, how many turns can it take for your opponent to do so, and play accordingly.