Is it possible to have a transformational sideboard? Play the normal Grixis Shadow in game 1 with TBRs. stubs, etc. Then plan to board out street wraiths, shadows, TBR and stubs and just turn into grixis control postboard (when playing the grindy matchups)
Or is that what most of you guys are already doing?
Oh gotcha. Hmm. Yours is a bit more creature-centric than mine.
So if I'm trying out a deck, I personally have to follow this rule: Don't ever play a worse version of some other deck. So I need a compelling argument on whether this can at least be situationally better than Jund to even be worth testing.
Essentially, what I found was that I desperately needed some way to clock the decks than can go over us (big mana/combo decks). Geist can do that, but he doesn't come down until turn 3, and if our opponent is playing any blockers, geist is quite mediocre.
So I instead went for the delve creatures to act as my "Tarmogoyfs". Goyf dies to push, but can always be played turn 2. Jace is the obvious BBE analogue as a 4 mana value play. He doesn't apply pressure in the same way, but he can be significantly more value if he can stay in play for more than a turn. Then I get lingering souls and snapcaster over liliana and dark confidant. This is a tough comparison. Souls and Snap are much better at protecting me but worse at applying "pressure" (confidant and liliana are worse than snap/souls if they are answered immediately, but get out of hand if they stick around). Path is both better worse than the red removal that Jund gets. In some situations path is amazing and in others its crap.
So the mainboard spells seem to be relatively equal in power level. Jund is better at killing their opponent, but esper seems to be better at staying alive and grinding the opponent out. In modern it's generally better to be proactive, so Jund probably has an edge here.
Where I think esper is better than Jund is the manabase and sideboard. The spells of Esper are significantly less color intensive than Jund's. So it can afford to play some number of Field of Ruin (I'm currently testing all 4, but that may be incorrect in the end). Ancient grudge and kcommand are great, but stony is brutal. Jund usually doesn't play many (if any) sweepers because they play to the board so much. Esper can play verdict and settle the wreckage. Esper also gets counterspells which can make up for its weaker pressure against the unfair decks.
So in conclusion, I'm happy to say that Esper midrange at least deserves some testing. It may not be better than Jund overall, but if the meta shakes out to pretty fair and creature centric, then going a little slower and going over the top of Jund could be a good call.
Finally, here's the 75 I'm currently on. I think the mana needs work, and the sideboard can always be changed:
I don't think you can reasonably make your conclusions off of zero testing.
The idea is that yes, regular jund has better average cascade targets. However, shadow plays significantly more "effective copies" of BBE, and they take advantage of the 3/2 haste body better.
So instead of casting 1 BBE (or 2 in a long game) and having an amazing hit, shadow can reliably cast 3 or 4 because of Traverse and zero mana cantrips and more kcommands than regular jund.
I don't think posting:
"I think regular jund is better because... that's the conclusion I made after I collected nor referenced any data"
is particularly helpful.
I'm being rather aggressive because I and others in this thread have had success with the BBE Shadow deck. Now, you may correct in the end, and regular jund may be better. Which I'm okay with! However, I really want you to have some support for your position.
Nice! If you have time, would you mind doing a write up? Or maybe just some thoughts on if you would change anything, or what cards over/under-performed?
I know I've personally been playing something similar (you guys convinced me on the sideboard TBR, but I haven't seen it much yet).
I've also been playing more bolts and less pushes.
Those are some really.. interesting sideboarding choices. I guess he's limited when he only has UB. I guess he just turns into UB control postboard? Haha. I wonder if he boards out the shadows when he brings in damnation and such.
I think seal is better than Tarfire, so I would cut that first if you're playing both. If you want a second brutality, the 3rd kolaghans command is probably next. You can stick the extra k-command back into the sideboard in the brutality slot too. You probably still want enough copies of k-command in the 75 for the artifact decks and grindy matchups. Abrupt Decay could also be swapped.
Bogles is pretty rough. You just have to race. But I've only ever played it in paper 1 time in the ~4 years I've been playing modern, so I'm okay with with that.
Tron is okay, the pressure + land disruption has been great against them so far. Karn feels so much more beatable when you have BBE in the deck. Wurmcoil is their best threat usually (Ulamog is scarier, obviously, but something went wrong earlier in the game if they are getting there). Luckily this version is playing lots of K-Commands so you usually just trade one of those and one other removal spell and let them gain some life. You can actually slog through it in this version. Its a pretty close matchup overall.
E-Tron way easier. Their Smashers are smaller than both Goyfs and Shadows usually (the random red removal spells makes goyf huge). Chalice is only annoying, and rarely scary. All is Dust is their best card against us by far.
Storm is still pretty good. We don't smash them like we used to, but we still have cheap removal for their cost reducers and just 1 thoughtseize will usually buy us the turn we need to kill them. Postboard we get extra disruption in brutalities and cages. Don't forget to bring in the Pulse and probably an Anger for the Empty plan.
You can make room for TBR if you want to race, more brutalities for disruption, or more graveyard hate if you want to fight these linear strategies. I've just been finding creature aggro and grindy fair decks to be more common right now. Another option is to swap some of the brutalities to the mainboard instead of some of the burn spells or the kcommand if you want to be better against those spell based decks.
But overall, I'm happy with this version because modern right now feels like it has a real Rock/Paper/Scissors of Fair>Aggro>Big Mana>Fair. And less of the spell based combo decks and such. This deck can grind with the best of them, beat the aggro decks with the plethora of cheap removal spells and can be even against the big mana decks.
@qel- yes, I've been thoroughly impressed with the deck. You don't totally smash the unfair decks in the same way that 4/5c Shadow did (no Stub and less hand disruption), but I still feel okay there, and in return I also feel favored in almost any fair matchup now too (UW can still be rough). Like Geneyquakes said, you just chain BBE's. The deck feels closer to a sleek oldschool Jund than the traditional Traverse Shadow. Instead of grinding with Confidant/Ooze/Liliana, we get 1 mana 8/8's and A LOT of BBE's to just overwhelm them instead.
The manabase is amazing. Also something that hasn't really been mentioned yet is that the BBE version is a lot easier to play. I know that part of the draw of the deck is that its fun to tinker around with all of these little decisions and such. There's still Bauble/Wraith tricks, but the deck is much less exhausting to play, which is a big plus when you're planning on playing 9 rounds in a day.
You'll never have complicated fetching decisions, you almost always get another BBE if you have the mana to cast her, you don't have to decide when you can and can't leave blue mana up, etc.
Well the current version I'm playing has 21 red spells in the 75 (2 of which are Anger), 23 black spells, and 14 green.
So as crazy as it sounds, I need red just as much as black! So while mountain would have been awful in previous versions of the deck (I thought similarly to you, and cut the basic mountain at first) I quickly added it back in. Field of Ruin is rampant, the deck leans on Traverse as a manasource more often than ever, and I'm playing a lot of reach and kcommands and dreadbores and such.
I just don't feel the need for that many threats at all, and I would much rather have more interaction spells. The BBE's alone make the deck already way more threat dense than we have ever been, and you're adding even more with the grim flayers. I don't think we need more dudes.
I think you're severely understating the moon effects in this build. You stated your reasoning was your experience with regular jund.
The moon plays out much differently here than in regular jund. You'll have access to the effect a lot more consistently because of traverse, and this deck doesn't rely on manlands as additional threats. You also will almost never screw yourself with it because the deck has 12 fetches and 4 traverse vs Jund's 9ish fetches. This deck is also much better at applying pressure, so the disruption given from the moon is a lot more substantial. Regular jund could give the opponent enough time to draw out of their color screw.
I mean we need something for big mana and such, were you planning on packing a bunch of fulminator instead? I don't think that is as good, but I guess it is an option I can start testing.
EDIT: oh, you want to play TBR in that slot to just kill them instead of trying to disrupt them. Hmm. That's an option I hadn't really considered. That's probably also reasonable. I'm not sure we could actually race them without the blue counter magic, but I guess BBE could also change things.
But Traverse Shadow instead makes the 3/2 body itself more relevant and it plays WAY more effective copies of BBE. I usually drown my opponent in BBE's. It is not uncommon to cast a BBE multiple turns in a row until my opponent is dead.
Essentially Jund gets manlands, Shadow gets Traverse.
Jund gets Bob/Ooze, Shadow gets.. Shadow.
Jund gets Liliana, Shadow gets zero mana cantrips.
Shadow is also happy to play all 4 thoughtseize which is now really relevant with the amount of 4+ drops being played now.
Minister of Pain isn't quite Izzet staticaster, but it's still really good against Mardu Pyro. I opted for anger of the gods in my sideboard instead because now our mana is amazing and we can afford to play double red. The minister can be traversed for though, which is sweet.
We also aren't susceptible to blood moon any more, which may surprise your Mardu opponent now.
Overall, the matchup is probably close. We both have really powerful tools. They have Reveler+Souls+Pyromancer, we have Traverse+Kcommand+BBE.
Or is that what most of you guys are already doing?
So if I'm trying out a deck, I personally have to follow this rule: Don't ever play a worse version of some other deck. So I need a compelling argument on whether this can at least be situationally better than Jund to even be worth testing.
Essentially, what I found was that I desperately needed some way to clock the decks than can go over us (big mana/combo decks). Geist can do that, but he doesn't come down until turn 3, and if our opponent is playing any blockers, geist is quite mediocre.
So I instead went for the delve creatures to act as my "Tarmogoyfs". Goyf dies to push, but can always be played turn 2. Jace is the obvious BBE analogue as a 4 mana value play. He doesn't apply pressure in the same way, but he can be significantly more value if he can stay in play for more than a turn. Then I get lingering souls and snapcaster over liliana and dark confidant. This is a tough comparison. Souls and Snap are much better at protecting me but worse at applying "pressure" (confidant and liliana are worse than snap/souls if they are answered immediately, but get out of hand if they stick around). Path is both better worse than the red removal that Jund gets. In some situations path is amazing and in others its crap.
So the mainboard spells seem to be relatively equal in power level. Jund is better at killing their opponent, but esper seems to be better at staying alive and grinding the opponent out. In modern it's generally better to be proactive, so Jund probably has an edge here.
Where I think esper is better than Jund is the manabase and sideboard. The spells of Esper are significantly less color intensive than Jund's. So it can afford to play some number of Field of Ruin (I'm currently testing all 4, but that may be incorrect in the end). Ancient grudge and kcommand are great, but stony is brutal. Jund usually doesn't play many (if any) sweepers because they play to the board so much. Esper can play verdict and settle the wreckage. Esper also gets counterspells which can make up for its weaker pressure against the unfair decks.
So in conclusion, I'm happy to say that Esper midrange at least deserves some testing. It may not be better than Jund overall, but if the meta shakes out to pretty fair and creature centric, then going a little slower and going over the top of Jund could be a good call.
Finally, here's the 75 I'm currently on. I think the mana needs work, and the sideboard can always be changed:
2 Gurmag Angler
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Thought Scour
4 Fatal Push
4 Path to Exile
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
2 Collective Brutality
2 Marsh Flats
2 Flooded Strand
4 Field of Ruin
1 Godless Shrine
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Watery Grave
2 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Island
2 Swamp
1 Plains
1 Settle the Wreckage
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Collective Brutality
2 Stony Silence
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Countersquall
2 Vendilion Clique
Now we should just cross our fingers for stoneforge mystic getting unbanned... then Esper could actually be premier midrange deck. Haha
The idea is that yes, regular jund has better average cascade targets. However, shadow plays significantly more "effective copies" of BBE, and they take advantage of the 3/2 haste body better.
So instead of casting 1 BBE (or 2 in a long game) and having an amazing hit, shadow can reliably cast 3 or 4 because of Traverse and zero mana cantrips and more kcommands than regular jund.
I don't think posting:
"I think regular jund is better because... that's the conclusion I made after I collected nor referenced any data"
is particularly helpful.
I'm being rather aggressive because I and others in this thread have had success with the BBE Shadow deck. Now, you may correct in the end, and regular jund may be better. Which I'm okay with! However, I really want you to have some support for your position.
I know I've personally been playing something similar (you guys convinced me on the sideboard TBR, but I haven't seen it much yet).
I've also been playing more bolts and less pushes.
Tron is okay, the pressure + land disruption has been great against them so far. Karn feels so much more beatable when you have BBE in the deck. Wurmcoil is their best threat usually (Ulamog is scarier, obviously, but something went wrong earlier in the game if they are getting there). Luckily this version is playing lots of K-Commands so you usually just trade one of those and one other removal spell and let them gain some life. You can actually slog through it in this version. Its a pretty close matchup overall.
E-Tron way easier. Their Smashers are smaller than both Goyfs and Shadows usually (the random red removal spells makes goyf huge). Chalice is only annoying, and rarely scary. All is Dust is their best card against us by far.
Storm is still pretty good. We don't smash them like we used to, but we still have cheap removal for their cost reducers and just 1 thoughtseize will usually buy us the turn we need to kill them. Postboard we get extra disruption in brutalities and cages. Don't forget to bring in the Pulse and probably an Anger for the Empty plan.
You can make room for TBR if you want to race, more brutalities for disruption, or more graveyard hate if you want to fight these linear strategies. I've just been finding creature aggro and grindy fair decks to be more common right now. Another option is to swap some of the brutalities to the mainboard instead of some of the burn spells or the kcommand if you want to be better against those spell based decks.
But overall, I'm happy with this version because modern right now feels like it has a real Rock/Paper/Scissors of Fair>Aggro>Big Mana>Fair. And less of the spell based combo decks and such. This deck can grind with the best of them, beat the aggro decks with the plethora of cheap removal spells and can be even against the big mana decks.
The manabase is amazing. Also something that hasn't really been mentioned yet is that the BBE version is a lot easier to play. I know that part of the draw of the deck is that its fun to tinker around with all of these little decisions and such. There's still Bauble/Wraith tricks, but the deck is much less exhausting to play, which is a big plus when you're planning on playing 9 rounds in a day.
You'll never have complicated fetching decisions, you almost always get another BBE if you have the mana to cast her, you don't have to decide when you can and can't leave blue mana up, etc.
So as crazy as it sounds, I need red just as much as black! So while mountain would have been awful in previous versions of the deck (I thought similarly to you, and cut the basic mountain at first) I quickly added it back in. Field of Ruin is rampant, the deck leans on Traverse as a manasource more often than ever, and I'm playing a lot of reach and kcommands and dreadbores and such.
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Street Wraith
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Thoughtseize
3 Kolaghan's Command
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Seal of Fire
2 Dreadbore
2 Fatal Push
1 Tarfire
1 Abrupt Decay
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Mountain
3 Collective Brutality
2 Blood Moon
1 Magus of the Moon
2 Fatal Push
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Kolaghan's Command
The moon plays out much differently here than in regular jund. You'll have access to the effect a lot more consistently because of traverse, and this deck doesn't rely on manlands as additional threats. You also will almost never screw yourself with it because the deck has 12 fetches and 4 traverse vs Jund's 9ish fetches. This deck is also much better at applying pressure, so the disruption given from the moon is a lot more substantial. Regular jund could give the opponent enough time to draw out of their color screw.
I mean we need something for big mana and such, were you planning on packing a bunch of fulminator instead? I don't think that is as good, but I guess it is an option I can start testing.
EDIT: oh, you want to play TBR in that slot to just kill them instead of trying to disrupt them. Hmm. That's an option I hadn't really considered. That's probably also reasonable. I'm not sure we could actually race them without the blue counter magic, but I guess BBE could also change things.
But Traverse Shadow instead makes the 3/2 body itself more relevant and it plays WAY more effective copies of BBE. I usually drown my opponent in BBE's. It is not uncommon to cast a BBE multiple turns in a row until my opponent is dead.
Essentially Jund gets manlands, Shadow gets Traverse.
Jund gets Bob/Ooze, Shadow gets.. Shadow.
Jund gets Liliana, Shadow gets zero mana cantrips.
Shadow is also happy to play all 4 thoughtseize which is now really relevant with the amount of 4+ drops being played now.
Minister of Pain isn't quite Izzet staticaster, but it's still really good against Mardu Pyro. I opted for anger of the gods in my sideboard instead because now our mana is amazing and we can afford to play double red. The minister can be traversed for though, which is sweet.
We also aren't susceptible to blood moon any more, which may surprise your Mardu opponent now.
Overall, the matchup is probably close. We both have really powerful tools. They have Reveler+Souls+Pyromancer, we have Traverse+Kcommand+BBE.