I dont think that they are the MOST deserving of a ban from the pump decks, however if Wizards wants to avoid banning Become Immense, these are the next 2 targets.
But my arguement is that if the Dredge or Drazi decks take a hit, then the format will shift towards midrange decks which will keep these pump spell decks under control. Then these Phyrexian spells wont need to be considered to slow it down.
But what beats Dredge and Eldrazi? Unfair, early, aggressive pump spell decks.
I've quoted a few sentences that i want to further discuss.
We all know those phyrexian mana spells were a design mistake. However, cards like Probe or Growth are played in many different decks and only make some of them competitive. Suicide Zoo, Suicide Bloo, those various U/R or Jeskai Prowess builds, Infect or Zoo and Probe is played in many combo decks too. Banning those cards would cripple so many decks which could easily survive a BI ban or don't even run it. Therefore i think BI should be the only card beeing considered banworthy. You are right though, those are all linear and fast aggro/combo decks but it would do the format no good if so many decks would get hit.
I have the feeling that the meta always cycles itself unless a deck is completely broken (eldrazi winter). The more dredge and Bant Eldrazi decks are out there, the more Infect/DSZ/etc. rise to pray on those decks which on the other hand makes fair Jund/Junk/Grixis strategies show up again to fight those fast decks and then the cycle continous. Dredge and Eldrazi can also be hated out (you mentioned that too) if people are expecting those decks.
One could argue the Probe being banned would be a good thing if it is run in SO many decks. The decks trying to play it are fundamentally trying to cheat on mana or push a real quick kill. That is all i am saying. Almost all the decks you mentioned are the linear decks that many players feel are unfair. You admit it was a design mistake, why allow it to continue to be a mistake? If it helps the format in the long run it seems like an easy choice. Ponder and Preordain were banned for making combo too consistent. Gitaxian Probe fills a similar role in the above mentioned decks.
Keep in mind i LOVE Probe, i own a set and run them in my UR Thing deck and 3 in my Delver list, its a great card, but this is my trying to have an unbiased opinion in terms of the format's health and longevity. Gitaxian Probe is the 3rd most played card in Modern, it serves an unfair role for virtually no cost.
I feel that Probe and BI are about equal in terms of how likely they are to get the ax but highly unlikely any receives such a ban at this announcement. My gut tells me that this time around either Eldrazi or Dredge takes a hit. 6 months down the line if the format continues with its degeneracy then we can look at Probe, Growth and BI and know if it is their fault or not. While they might be a problem, we can see after the format slows down a bit if either Dredge or Drazi lose a piece to allow fair decks to try to fight the field.
Regarding the phyrexian mana spells, the information Probe gives you in Infect, Zoo, and Thing decks is my reasoning for it being a target. 2 life and a card to draw isnt broken. But it lets the linear deck know if the coast is clear or not and helps them to play around interaction. I have seen Zoo drop 2 turn 1 and another on the following turn, providing very good and relevant information, while also being half of Become Immense's cost.
Growth only goes into the hyper aggressive decks and it probably shouldnt be banned, but if they want to slow the pump decks across the board then it isnt a bad option. Everytime i play Probe, the information tends to be the most valuable aspect of the card. I only bring up the Phyrexian mana spells because they are a very strong and consistent way to play multiple spells in the early turns of a game for little to NO downside. I dont think that they are the MOST deserving of a ban from the pump decks, however if Wizards wants to avoid banning Become Immense, these are the next 2 targets.
If you read my post you would see that i dont think any of those (Phyrexian mana) cards should get removed right now, rather after the format has been slowed down (through other potential bannings first). But my arguement is that if the Dredge or Drazi decks take a hit, then the format will shift towards midrange decks which will keep these pump spell decks under control. Then these Phyrexian spells wont need to be considered to slow it down.
I do think Eldrazi and Dredge are creating a hostile metagame. Locally, i dont have too many of either to deal with, however in larger events they warp the format. You have to play something to go over or under. You just cant try to play fair in any way against them, aside from maybe Blood Moon or Anger of the Gods against Dredge unless it gets Thoughtseized.
This all depends on what Wizards wants to do, ban the decks that potentially kill before turn 4 or ban the decks that prevent interactive decks from policing the hyper aggressive decks running a million pump spells. The second sounds like a better choice to me since i know the aggro decks can be beaten by a fair deck and a kill spell. But what beats Dredge and Eldrazi? Unfair, early, aggressive pump spell decks.
I havent posted my thoughts on bans in a while but here i go.
If anything in Infect or other pump spell decks has to go its going to be one of the following.
Gitaxian Probe
I like the card but it kinda does everything you want from a cantrip in the decks that run it. It draws, triggers prowess, feeds Delve, gives valuable information and the life loss isnt even a drawback in some of these decks. Feels the most likely to me if anything from the deck gets the ax but i dont think Infect is on the chopping block this time.
Mutagenic Growth
This card screams unfair. If a deck is trying to kill you as quickly as it can then it is running a set. Some similarities with Probe in these decks. Just adds too much consistency and speed.
Become Immense
Only reason i even mention this card is they have already banned 2 other power Delve spells from that block. If they want to cripple Deaths Shadow and knock Infect down a peg (And really, it probably gets swapped with Groundswell). Doesnt take Probe away from the sometimes fair-ish blue decks running them. If they really want to hit the pump decks but without banning Probe or Growth (the consistency) then it makes sense they take away the payoff (the power).
That said, i love Infect as a deck and i have never had a problem with the deck. BUT i have been playing decks with either 4 Path, 4 Decay MD or 4 Bolt, 3 Terminate, 2 Decay, ect. forever. It feels like it makes fair decks good. Removal, counters, discard, there are a ton of ways to beat Infect if that is your goal. I dont think this is where the main problem in Modern is though is definitely contributing to the insane speed of the meta.
My gut tells me they will ban the deck that promotes linearity. The 2 decks that jump out at me the most are Dredge and Bant Eldrazi. They arent unbeatable but they are harder to beat with any sort of fair strategy. Infect, Burn, Affinity, they all get shut down easily with SB cards or a deck built with interaction. Dredge and Bant Drazi dont, they encourage going over or under them and in this case, speeding the format up with the pump decks, the uptick in Burn, and Lantern. In the case of going over, GW Tron. Dredge can fight through hate real well, Conflag adds a new level of power to the deck, and aside from Anger of the Gods, Relic, or Leyline of the Void, there isnt a great way to hate it. Their SB is dedicated to beating hate. Conflag just lets it win if it gets to dredge some Loams. Aside from hate, you can race Dredge with Burn or Infect. Eldrazi Temple was the land i thought would be banned during Eldrazi Winter. Combined with mana dorks and hyper efficient, above the curve plays, fair decks will not do their job.
The last time Chalice of the Void or Relic of Progenitus were considered viable MD options in the format was during TC Delver and PT Oath of the Gatewatch, it was because the format was in a serious hole. When most of the spells in the format that are being played are all 0, 1, and 2 mana, Chalice becomes real appealing.
I also doubt Wizards does nothing this go around. Its silly to see some cards on the ban list when we have Dredge putting half of its deck into the grave on turn 2, Eldrazi chaining Seers and Smasher's starting turn 2 and 3 respectively, and Infect (which is an unfair deck) is being considered the police deck of the format. Thats scary. Imagine if Amulet was considered a police deck, sure, every deck has to run some number of Blood Moon or go faster now. You have Rock, Paper, Scissors, and when Rock becomes an obsolete option, it kinda ruins the game doesnt it?
The format screams degeneracy. Taking a historical perspective on this format i cant see something not giving. If the format stays the same, or relatively, then viewers of GPs and Opens will get bored or upset after they see the same 4-12 decks (and most lists share some number of staples in Probe, Become Immense ect.) in the same matchups over and over. If the only changes to come to Modern come through Standard printings then, based on looking at the last 2 years worth of sets, i dont think we are in for a good time. I dont mind it, i will keep playing no matter what happens, i have had 4 decks banned from under me but i still have a half dozen sitting beside me, i will always find a deck to enjoy playing. I think this time around they will address Bant Eldrazi or Dredge through a banning. It might make viewers happy to see more interactive decks being promoted with their primary predator gone. I doubt they would do an unbanning right now considering how crazy the format is and banning something alone is likely enough to cause a stir for months. Infect is probably safe for now but its the deck to beat and historically that has been a scary thought.
I mean, it would pretty much shape up to be similar to Legacy or No Ban List Modern. Either run UB for disruption, race to finish line, or try to go over the top. Seems like it would be fun for a little while. But it wouldnt help with the speed of the format.
Well, regarding bans/unbans: How do you all find people's reactions in your local metas? Are there any dissapointed "I wont play Modern ever again unless Wizards ban this Dredge abomination that kills my fair decks" or "I am not playing the format unless Wizards goes on with multiple bans" people ? Or are they enjoying the meta?
There is like a silent agreement in my area that dredge shouldn't be in the format, therefore it is extremely unrepresented and those who do play out get a pretty cold shoulder from the locals. The result of this is that jund, abzan, esper, jeskai and grixis do extremely well here, and infect, burn, zooicide and other aggro is highly represented but kept in check by the large amount of midrange and control
I was actually testing keranos in the side of grixis delver locally due to the high representation of slow, fair decks to reasonable success
Sounds like my store, except other side of the country. A year ago the store was littered with aggro and combo. Now there are more blue based midrange decks than most other archetypes. Coming online to see the low amount of U based control and midrange always shocks me. My main deck is Jund and in the last 20+ fnms i have played it in i dont think i havent placed. Again, lots of aggro too but its kept under all the midrange and control here. During Eldrazi Winter there was maybe 1 or 2 Eldrazi players in a room of 50+ Modern players. Most knew it would get banned or wanted to play their decks. Lots of pissed Twin players. Now with Dredge and Infect being the top decks, we still have very few pilots on either consistently.
I feel like something in Dredge might get hit. But i also feel like Infect will get hit despite it being ok right now. These are really the only 2 decks that are even concerning. We also have to see what Aether Revolt brings us which likely wont be much but the last few sets have definitely affected Modern. Everything in nonsensical right now.
So either Grixis Midrange/Control wins and all the blue players can be sad for awhile longer while Wizards takes it as an assumption the format is ok. OR Skred blows out Grixis and takes the event down.
My LGS has a lot of UR and UWx control decks. Most weeks we get around 30 for Modern, usually about a third of the room is playing some form of a U based midrange/control deck. The rest is chaos. No Bogles. Very few Infect. Lots of GBx decks like Jund/k and Chord/Evolution decks. Almost no Tron, very little Affinity, no Zoo/Death's Shadow. However it seems like most decks are geared towards beating other grindy midrange decks. I have been drafting and playing Bogles in Modern mostly so i havent had many worries.
It is for sure way off from the meta reports we see posted on here but it is a pretty accurate description of my meta. And keep in mind we are in the top 5-7% of all WPN stores for Limited and Modern events firing.
I see what youre going for but what i am unclear on is why is this better than a Jund deck adding Experiment? Its basically a RB deck with some bad cantrips and worse mana. Platinum Angel is a worse Emperion in every way. What decks does this deck beat up on? Right now the teir 1 decks are killing you incredibly quickly. They have disruption. You wont always find Madcap on time. Blue doesnt add too much to the deck. You tap out to sort of manipulate your deck and then die. Or you grind the aggro decks and they Infect you after you land Emperion. You get Emperion and bank on it winning and then Terminate hits it. Path hits it. Artifact hate hits it and i dont know what decks dont have a way to stop artifacts. But you dont seem to have another RELIABLE way to win. And that is the glaring flaw to me.
I truly believe just jamming this combo into a midrange deck isnt where it wants to be.
^^
Sounds rather interesting, can you share your list ?
I dont have my cards near me at the moment, but if you look up UR Through the Breach in Modern, you get a pretty good idea of what the deck looks like. You play things like Serum Visions, Bolt, Remand, Charms, Electrolyze, sometimes Cryptic, Blood Moon, Spreading Seas, Anger of the Gods, with a combo kill of Through the Breach and Emrakul. SB used to focus on a Blue Moon style control deck but i took out the Keranos, Jace and the Wurmcoil/Pia&Kirans in favor of the Madcap Emperion combo. Its good when decks dont have removal or board it out after seeing us play no creatures besides Emrakul and sometimes Snapcaster. Its also incredible at just breaking the bad matchups. The difference between Emrakul and Emperion is often a turn or two.
Seems bad against control but its one of our better matchups. Pre SB we have the advantage of the surprize kill, can even TTB on end step if they have Remand. After SB we have the Emperion Combo to get them to tap low so we can get there with Breach. We also have Gigadrowse, Dispels for the blue.
Jund is favorable. It all depends on the way both players SB. Sometimes Jund takes out all their bad removal because it cant hit Emrakul. Sometimes their Inquisitions cant hit TTB, Madcap, Cryptic. They need Thoughtseize or something out of the sb to hit our combo with discard.
Aggro decks are no contest. We have 4 Bolt, 3 Izzet Charm, 1 Electrolyze, 2 Anger of the Gods plus our counters and Snaps get pesky. Spreading Seas/Moon are decent here at slowing them down. Sometimes i wish we had Roast in the deck.
Combo decks are the best deck we can sit across from. Just sit on your Charms, Remands, Cryptics, Snaps, whatever youre running. Then after SB bring in your Dispels/Negates and often the Madcap Combo and viola, nigh-impossible to lose matchups.
Although its been good to me, i can see times where the deck is just a half turn too slow. The deck is strong but it isnt the best. I often let someone else on the team play it at events while i rock Jund or Bogles, but between all of us using it in tournaments we have only ever not placed 2 times with it out of at least a dozen trips and those losses were from a guy playing in his first and second Magic events. For example, he doesnt quite get Blue and likes to tap out when its often incorrect.
Im currently running Madcap Emperion in my UR Breach deck. I run 4 TTB, 4 Emrakul, with 4 Madcap, 2 Platinum Emperion in the sideboard for an aggressive plan B. I took out the Cryptic Commands and a couple Snapcasters for a set of Seas/Blood Moon main. Its so strong. People die to 1 combo then die to the next. People get salty, ask what the **** i am playing, stare in awe, and cry in the absence of Twin. But at 7-1 in paper events i would say im pretty pleased.
It is a card that would likely require a re-banning once it found a home in a better, more degenerate shell than those "slowing down" the format would. It restricts deck building decisions as well which is something WoTC doesnt like in the format.
Looks like it might be time for Goryo's Vengeance to spike like its brother Through the Breach! Pick up your copies if you need them, you can still get some for 25. I snagged a set for 20 a pop a couple minutes ago.
One could argue the Probe being banned would be a good thing if it is run in SO many decks. The decks trying to play it are fundamentally trying to cheat on mana or push a real quick kill. That is all i am saying. Almost all the decks you mentioned are the linear decks that many players feel are unfair. You admit it was a design mistake, why allow it to continue to be a mistake? If it helps the format in the long run it seems like an easy choice. Ponder and Preordain were banned for making combo too consistent. Gitaxian Probe fills a similar role in the above mentioned decks.
Keep in mind i LOVE Probe, i own a set and run them in my UR Thing deck and 3 in my Delver list, its a great card, but this is my trying to have an unbiased opinion in terms of the format's health and longevity. Gitaxian Probe is the 3rd most played card in Modern, it serves an unfair role for virtually no cost.
I feel that Probe and BI are about equal in terms of how likely they are to get the ax but highly unlikely any receives such a ban at this announcement. My gut tells me that this time around either Eldrazi or Dredge takes a hit. 6 months down the line if the format continues with its degeneracy then we can look at Probe, Growth and BI and know if it is their fault or not. While they might be a problem, we can see after the format slows down a bit if either Dredge or Drazi lose a piece to allow fair decks to try to fight the field.
Growth only goes into the hyper aggressive decks and it probably shouldnt be banned, but if they want to slow the pump decks across the board then it isnt a bad option. Everytime i play Probe, the information tends to be the most valuable aspect of the card. I only bring up the Phyrexian mana spells because they are a very strong and consistent way to play multiple spells in the early turns of a game for little to NO downside. I dont think that they are the MOST deserving of a ban from the pump decks, however if Wizards wants to avoid banning Become Immense, these are the next 2 targets.
If you read my post you would see that i dont think any of those (Phyrexian mana) cards should get removed right now, rather after the format has been slowed down (through other potential bannings first). But my arguement is that if the Dredge or Drazi decks take a hit, then the format will shift towards midrange decks which will keep these pump spell decks under control. Then these Phyrexian spells wont need to be considered to slow it down.
I do think Eldrazi and Dredge are creating a hostile metagame. Locally, i dont have too many of either to deal with, however in larger events they warp the format. You have to play something to go over or under. You just cant try to play fair in any way against them, aside from maybe Blood Moon or Anger of the Gods against Dredge unless it gets Thoughtseized.
This all depends on what Wizards wants to do, ban the decks that potentially kill before turn 4 or ban the decks that prevent interactive decks from policing the hyper aggressive decks running a million pump spells. The second sounds like a better choice to me since i know the aggro decks can be beaten by a fair deck and a kill spell. But what beats Dredge and Eldrazi? Unfair, early, aggressive pump spell decks.
If anything in Infect or other pump spell decks has to go its going to be one of the following.
Gitaxian Probe
I like the card but it kinda does everything you want from a cantrip in the decks that run it. It draws, triggers prowess, feeds Delve, gives valuable information and the life loss isnt even a drawback in some of these decks. Feels the most likely to me if anything from the deck gets the ax but i dont think Infect is on the chopping block this time.
Mutagenic Growth
This card screams unfair. If a deck is trying to kill you as quickly as it can then it is running a set. Some similarities with Probe in these decks. Just adds too much consistency and speed.
Become Immense
Only reason i even mention this card is they have already banned 2 other power Delve spells from that block. If they want to cripple Deaths Shadow and knock Infect down a peg (And really, it probably gets swapped with Groundswell). Doesnt take Probe away from the sometimes fair-ish blue decks running them. If they really want to hit the pump decks but without banning Probe or Growth (the consistency) then it makes sense they take away the payoff (the power).
That said, i love Infect as a deck and i have never had a problem with the deck. BUT i have been playing decks with either 4 Path, 4 Decay MD or 4 Bolt, 3 Terminate, 2 Decay, ect. forever. It feels like it makes fair decks good. Removal, counters, discard, there are a ton of ways to beat Infect if that is your goal. I dont think this is where the main problem in Modern is though is definitely contributing to the insane speed of the meta.
My gut tells me they will ban the deck that promotes linearity. The 2 decks that jump out at me the most are Dredge and Bant Eldrazi. They arent unbeatable but they are harder to beat with any sort of fair strategy. Infect, Burn, Affinity, they all get shut down easily with SB cards or a deck built with interaction. Dredge and Bant Drazi dont, they encourage going over or under them and in this case, speeding the format up with the pump decks, the uptick in Burn, and Lantern. In the case of going over, GW Tron. Dredge can fight through hate real well, Conflag adds a new level of power to the deck, and aside from Anger of the Gods, Relic, or Leyline of the Void, there isnt a great way to hate it. Their SB is dedicated to beating hate. Conflag just lets it win if it gets to dredge some Loams. Aside from hate, you can race Dredge with Burn or Infect. Eldrazi Temple was the land i thought would be banned during Eldrazi Winter. Combined with mana dorks and hyper efficient, above the curve plays, fair decks will not do their job.
The last time Chalice of the Void or Relic of Progenitus were considered viable MD options in the format was during TC Delver and PT Oath of the Gatewatch, it was because the format was in a serious hole. When most of the spells in the format that are being played are all 0, 1, and 2 mana, Chalice becomes real appealing.
If anything has to go from either deck, it would likely be the Conflagrate from Dredge and either Ancient Stirrings or Eldrazi Temple from Bant Drazi.
I also doubt Wizards does nothing this go around. Its silly to see some cards on the ban list when we have Dredge putting half of its deck into the grave on turn 2, Eldrazi chaining Seers and Smasher's starting turn 2 and 3 respectively, and Infect (which is an unfair deck) is being considered the police deck of the format. Thats scary. Imagine if Amulet was considered a police deck, sure, every deck has to run some number of Blood Moon or go faster now. You have Rock, Paper, Scissors, and when Rock becomes an obsolete option, it kinda ruins the game doesnt it?
The format screams degeneracy. Taking a historical perspective on this format i cant see something not giving. If the format stays the same, or relatively, then viewers of GPs and Opens will get bored or upset after they see the same 4-12 decks (and most lists share some number of staples in Probe, Become Immense ect.) in the same matchups over and over. If the only changes to come to Modern come through Standard printings then, based on looking at the last 2 years worth of sets, i dont think we are in for a good time. I dont mind it, i will keep playing no matter what happens, i have had 4 decks banned from under me but i still have a half dozen sitting beside me, i will always find a deck to enjoy playing. I think this time around they will address Bant Eldrazi or Dredge through a banning. It might make viewers happy to see more interactive decks being promoted with their primary predator gone. I doubt they would do an unbanning right now considering how crazy the format is and banning something alone is likely enough to cause a stir for months. Infect is probably safe for now but its the deck to beat and historically that has been a scary thought.
Sounds like my store, except other side of the country. A year ago the store was littered with aggro and combo. Now there are more blue based midrange decks than most other archetypes. Coming online to see the low amount of U based control and midrange always shocks me. My main deck is Jund and in the last 20+ fnms i have played it in i dont think i havent placed. Again, lots of aggro too but its kept under all the midrange and control here. During Eldrazi Winter there was maybe 1 or 2 Eldrazi players in a room of 50+ Modern players. Most knew it would get banned or wanted to play their decks. Lots of pissed Twin players. Now with Dredge and Infect being the top decks, we still have very few pilots on either consistently.
It is for sure way off from the meta reports we see posted on here but it is a pretty accurate description of my meta. And keep in mind we are in the top 5-7% of all WPN stores for Limited and Modern events firing.
I truly believe just jamming this combo into a midrange deck isnt where it wants to be.
I dont have my cards near me at the moment, but if you look up UR Through the Breach in Modern, you get a pretty good idea of what the deck looks like. You play things like Serum Visions, Bolt, Remand, Charms, Electrolyze, sometimes Cryptic, Blood Moon, Spreading Seas, Anger of the Gods, with a combo kill of Through the Breach and Emrakul. SB used to focus on a Blue Moon style control deck but i took out the Keranos, Jace and the Wurmcoil/Pia&Kirans in favor of the Madcap Emperion combo. Its good when decks dont have removal or board it out after seeing us play no creatures besides Emrakul and sometimes Snapcaster. Its also incredible at just breaking the bad matchups. The difference between Emrakul and Emperion is often a turn or two.
Seems bad against control but its one of our better matchups. Pre SB we have the advantage of the surprize kill, can even TTB on end step if they have Remand. After SB we have the Emperion Combo to get them to tap low so we can get there with Breach. We also have Gigadrowse, Dispels for the blue.
Jund is favorable. It all depends on the way both players SB. Sometimes Jund takes out all their bad removal because it cant hit Emrakul. Sometimes their Inquisitions cant hit TTB, Madcap, Cryptic. They need Thoughtseize or something out of the sb to hit our combo with discard.
Aggro decks are no contest. We have 4 Bolt, 3 Izzet Charm, 1 Electrolyze, 2 Anger of the Gods plus our counters and Snaps get pesky. Spreading Seas/Moon are decent here at slowing them down. Sometimes i wish we had Roast in the deck.
Combo decks are the best deck we can sit across from. Just sit on your Charms, Remands, Cryptics, Snaps, whatever youre running. Then after SB bring in your Dispels/Negates and often the Madcap Combo and viola, nigh-impossible to lose matchups.
Although its been good to me, i can see times where the deck is just a half turn too slow. The deck is strong but it isnt the best. I often let someone else on the team play it at events while i rock Jund or Bogles, but between all of us using it in tournaments we have only ever not placed 2 times with it out of at least a dozen trips and those losses were from a guy playing in his first and second Magic events. For example, he doesnt quite get Blue and likes to tap out when its often incorrect.