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  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Winota, Joiner of Forces
    Hey y'all, as I mentioned earlier I built a quick simulation to get numbers on Winota!! You can check out the thread and the code here.

    TL;DR

    Deck: 16 lands, 9 humans, 8 non-humans, 1 Winota, 6 other.

    Avg # hits when cast: 1.65
    Avg turn cast: 5
    Complete misses: 14%

    Edit: I have to say these numbers make me a lot more excited for the card!!
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Winota, Joiner of Forces
    Quote from Niphred »
    Quoting moak0 from reddit:
    I don't think this is very good.

    It requires way too much setup. Let's assume that if you can get this to trigger on turn 4, it's very good, and if you can't then it's dramatically less good.

    You have to have a deck with enough non-humans that you draw and cast one before turn 4.
    You have to have a deck with enough humans that it actually finds one in the top six cards.
    So that means you've got around 11 cards to see a non-human (starting 7 plus 4 draws), and 6 cards to see a human.

    Side note: I did the math, and the correct ratio for this is roughly 1.5 humans to 1 non-human.

    So if you're running 18 creatures (seems a little high), 10 of them are humans, 7 of them are non-humans, and 1 of them is Winota, you're about a 77% chance for this to go off on turn 4. That's realistically the ceiling.

    I'll do a quick chart.

    Creatures - Humans - Non-Humans - Turn 4 Trigger %
    20 --- 11 --- 08 --- 83%
    20 --- 12 --- 07 --- 83%
    19 --- 11 --- 07 --- 80%
    18 --- 10 --- 07 --- 77%
    17 --- 09 --- 07 --- 74%
    17 --- 10 --- 06 --- 74%
    16 --- 09 --- 06 --- 70%
    15 --- 08 --- 06 --- 67%
    So if you manage to go heavy on the creatures, and you can run exactly the right human to non-human ratio, this card will still be a vanilla 4/4 like one out of five times.

    I guess the value goes up if you have multiple non-humans at the same time, so that's something. But the card is so useless on an empty board, and it requires such an awkward deck building restriction that I just don't think it's good.

    Even more awkward because humans tend to be smaller than non-humans, so most of the time you're going to be using your big creatures to cheat out your little creatures.


    One important note is that you can push for a humans + non-humans theme to allow some really good overlap. For example, Forbidden Friendship may be a great cube inclusion if you include this card. Gives a non-human attacker with a human body to benefit from lords. Blade Splicer is the best cube-staple-example of cards like this, and I will be looking for more.

    When I find the time, I'll do an actual simulation rather than probabilities to come up with an eval metric. Since 77% for one trigger is not great for sure. However, if two triggers is reasonably common (e.g. 40%), that's by far the best Ranger of Eos variant we've ever seen and I will include it.

    Note: if somebody else wants to mess around with the simulation and knows python, I've been working on a quick and easy framework for it as of yesterday. See the code repository HERE.




    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Winota, Joiner of Forces
    I have a human theme, which makes this a SLAM DUNK! Humans decks are rarely all humans. Usually there's a solid set of non-humans, especially tokens. The fact that human lords can get thrown in makes this awesome!
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [CUBE][IKO][C20] Includes and Testing Thread
    For my Vintage Cube:

    Trying out, but likely will cut for being too good, or just not liking them aesthetically:

    - COMPANIONS

    Confident to stay a long time:

    - Shark Typhoon
    - Heartless Act
    - General Kudro of Drannith

    Hope they are good enough to stay a long time:

    - Vivien, Monster's Advocate
    - Luminous Broodmoth
    - Fire Prophecy
    - Fiend Artisan

    Considering testing, but unsure:

    - Neutralize
    - Wilt
    - Titanoth Rex

    ----------------------------

    For my Combat Cube:

    Confident to stay a long time:

    - Sea-Dasher Octopus
    - Fight as One
    - Swallow Whole
    - Fire Prophecy
    - Sprite Dragon

    Hope they are good enough to stay a long time:

    - Flourishing Fox (considering small cycle theme)

    Considering testing, but unsure:

    - Bastion of Remembrance
    - Neutralize
    - Splendor Mare
    - Reconnaissance Mission

    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO] [CUBE] Lurrus of the Dream-Den


    SLAM DUNK!!

    Unlike Lutri, you actually have to jump through hoops to get one of the most absurd cards possible. Furthermore, unlike Lutri, this card is a super solid playable in any creature midrange or aggro deck. So you don't need to hit Companion for it to be good enough. I think that adds up to a card that I'm stoked to include. Won't be too good like Lutri, but has an incredibly high ceiling and a reasonable floor!

    Edit: I missed restriction only cares about permanents. The restriction might be too easy to hit, and could certainly be too good. UGH.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [CUBE][C20] Slippery bogbonder
    This is a slam dunk for my Combat Cube. But I can't see adding it to my Vintage Cube.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Rielle, the Everwise
    Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think this card is just worse than Squee, Goblin Nabob. You have to be able to cast it to get the value. You can't get the value early (e.g. turn 1 faithless looting, turn 3 dack, turn 2 collective brutality, etc.). And, to top that all off, you lose your engine to any piece of interaction, where Squee is incredibly resilient.

    I think it's a flashy squee that looks like you can get more value and that it can be a win-con. But I expect decks that abuse this card would rather have Squee. Just a hunch, but I no longer plan on testing it.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Titanoth Rex // Godzilla, Primeval Champion
    I like this card A LOT. Unsure what I’m cutting, but I’ll be finding room.

    I really liked the idea of that U cycler 5/5 hexproof, but the body was too embarrassing. Cycling on my reanimation target is amazing.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Lutri, the Spellchaser
    Yeah I was saying it would get ETB draw a card. I would cube it in a heartbeat. And I wanted to show that it’s approximately 2.5 times better than that card via abstract napkin math lol. Sounds like we’re on the same page, wtwlf123
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Rielle, the Everwise
    I want to include this card so bad, but I just don't want to cut an Izzet card. It's close enough that a keyword ability or a 4th point of toughness would make me test it. As is, I'm just not sure there's a card I'm willing to cut.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Lutri, the Spellchaser
    The only point of my calculations was to demonstrate the magnitude of difference access 100% of the time means. If you think the card is actually bad (I don't) then yeah it doesn't matter. But given that I would cube the card in a heartbeat without it in my opening hand, the 100% access makes it seem absurd to me.

    Yeah it's quick napkin math, but I think it properly demonstrated my point.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Lutri, the Spellchaser
    Quote from asmallcat »
    I think this card is very, very, very good. I also think taking it over power (real power like moxen, sol ring, lotus, crypt) would be insane. I think it's easily a first-pick quality card in my cube (vintage unpowered), but there are also still cards I would pick over it - JTMS, recurring nightmare, mind twist, 4cmc gideon, maybe fractured identity, and probably more I'm forgetting.

    I think this card is great. I'm not worried about it breaking cube.


    3cmc, 3/2 flash, ETB draw a card + fork your own spell?

    I'd cube that in a heartbeat. But you're right, it's not better than power. However, this Otter isn't that card. In fact, Lutri is 2.5 times better than the card described above! How?? Well, consider the following:

    The value of a card in your deck can be approximated by the probability you cast it multiplied by the effect when cast. Let's say In an average game of cube, you see about 40% of your deck (16 cards --- it's probably smaller than that to be honest). This means that the value of any card is really about 0.4 * it's actual value at best. Given that you have access to this Otter in 100% of games, the value of Lutri is 2.5 times higher than the card text reads, because we are (subconsciously) used to evaluating cards under this 40% probabilistic lens, I believe that many aren't properly understanding the magnitude of that difference.

    I believe this yields a card that is substantially above the cards listed (JTMS, Recurring Nightmare, 4cmc Gideon, etc.). If it's in the discussion related to power is something else, but I believe it should be.

    Edit: For clarity. Wrote that while half asleep.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO] [CUBE] Shark Typhoon


    First off, the name Shark Typhoon and flying Shark tokens is AWESOME! At first, this looks like a terrible expensive enchantment. However, that mode is just gravy. This is {2X}: flash, flying, cantrip on cast, X/X! That in itself is a cubable card.

    I may finally give Mulldrifter the Axe to test this spell.
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on [IKO][CUBE] Vivien, Monsters' Advocate
    Yeah that {-2} has me singing. Will test for sure!
    Posted in: Cube New Card Discussion
  • posted a message on Inverter Combo
    Exactly! If nexus is the last card and you have enough lands to cast it, you can take infinite turns. Although you do lose if you don't have a way to win from there Grin

    Nexus of Fate has been a great card in my list at least. Endstep Nexus is often GGs, which is how it should be for 7 cmc spells. But it's also guaranteed inevitability (Like Jace too) in that you win if the game goes on forever. So having control cards that just-so-happen to be Lab-Mans, even without the combo pieces (e.g. Demonic Consultation), spawns true control decks that don't really care for any finishers. It's a cool archetype that wasn't supported before!
    Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
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