Quote from FourDogsInAHorseSuit »1 Appealing to the self-proclaimed 'Mad Staticitian' is, itself, an appeal to authority. Kinda rings hallow against your little screed against such a "mistake".
2 Human beings are not rational actors so bringing it up in a game of hidden information is nonsense for robots.
3 Even if they were you've presented a false choice because you can do more than Refute or Accept new information.
Quote from Spsiegel1987 »It's more that in several years, not one single author or pro has ever claimed it is even or close to even, and is universally panned as atrocious.
Quote from ktkenshinx »Re: Jund vs. Tron
Again, I don't know what the % is today, but I know with statistical certainty it was roughly 50/50 for about 5 months of 2015 during a time we had mined MTGO data for that matchup. I also knew many players said it was "unwinnable" in that same time period, despite the numbers clearly showing it was actually 50/50. If Reid said it was worse in that time period, Reid was wrong. I don't know what it looks like today but I expect it's similar. Overall, people are bad at guessing their matchups; there's way too much bias and opportunity to willfully or unknowingly lie to yourself and others.
Side note: Abzan is definitely worse against Tron than Jund. I think it was around 35/65.
Quote from sisicat »That may be true in theory but I have found in practice that even if you know your deck better than your opponent. Ex. (BGx vs Tron). I think most people can agree that the BGx deck needs to clock opponent fast enough and be just disruptive enough so that the backbreaking spells don't come online. That knowledge goes out the window against god hands that even a new person signing up for a DCI number can pilot mindlessly.
Your matchup knowledge only helps when your opponents keep loose or have average or below average hands.
Quote from sisicat »Quote from Lord Seth »Quote from FoodChainGoblins »Tron vs. BGx is (IMO) one of the most polarizing matchups in all of Modern. It shouldn't always be used as the example because there are plenty of matchups that are closer to 50/50, like UW Control vs. Burn.Didn't ktkenshinx crunch numbers at some point and determine that the Tron vs. BGx matchup was actually a lot closer to 50/50 than was commonly believed?
Who knows, almost nobody will experience a significant sample size enough to the point where it will tip the scales to a top 8 record of GP/PT. No one remembers those close games in that matchup. It's those turn 3 Karn games on the play that everyone remembers, just the same way everyone only remembers the turn 4 Ulamog off of Marvel in Standard.
Quote from Lord Seth »Quote from FoodChainGoblins »Tron vs. BGx is (IMO) one of the most polarizing matchups in all of Modern. It shouldn't always be used as the example because there are plenty of matchups that are closer to 50/50, like UW Control vs. Burn.Didn't ktkenshinx crunch numbers at some point and determine that the Tron vs. BGx matchup was actually a lot closer to 50/50 than was commonly believed?
Quote from FoodChainGoblins »Tron vs. BGx is (IMO) one of the most polarizing matchups in all of Modern. It shouldn't always be used as the example because there are plenty of matchups that are closer to 50/50, like UW Control vs. Burn.
Quote from LEH »
From the Top 8/32 of GP Birmingham I would write off a SFM unban. I think a BBE unban is far more likely than SFM but is still unlikely, given the results. From what I'm hearing, from people who went there this weekend, was that there was an incredibly low amount of Tron variants at the tournament. This fits in line with some of the player choices I know happened, inasmuch as, many of the players who would normally have taken Eldra/Tron were expecting a tonne of hate from every deck and decided to go with a different choice for the event.
I think BBE and SFM were on the agenda for unbanning the next unbanning announcement but as of the results are back on the "wait and see" list.
The results in from the weekend look amazing though and, more importantly, there is absolutely no reason for a banning.
Quote from r497 »São Paulo top8:
2 Grixis Shadow
TitanShift (3 Hour of Promise maindeck)
Jeskai Control (2 Geist, 1 Thundermaw, 4 Spell Queller Maindeck)
Quote from Ayiluss »Very diverse metagame again.
Quote from pierrebai »And shrine burn wins Birmingham, so much for "no eidolon wtf?". Eidolon is a few points and a big down-size for the burn player. I'd guess a shrine does at least 4 every time it hits the board.
Quote from cfusionpm »
Death's Shadow IIIII (1 Esper 4 Grixis, mostly the same)
Abzan Midrange III
Eldrazi Tron II
Bant CoCo Knightfall I
Lantern Control I
GB Midrange I
Bant Eldrazi I
Ad Nauseam I
Living End I
That is not exactly the image I draw up when I think of "healthy" or "diverse".
Quote from cfusionpm »Quote from Zorakkiller »At what point does the mtgo data become too flawed?When postings of 5-0 lists changed from 10 random lists (which can be very useful representation after enough days) to 5 lists that are actively chosen to showcase artificial diversity (no list can share a certain number of cards with another posted list). This change happened about a month ago? And has been met with nearly universal disapproval.
An absolutely amazing in depth break down of the change can be read about here: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/wizards-data-insanity
Quote from Zorakkiller »At what point does the mtgo data become too flawed?