Ktken left and he was our data guy. Were still figuring our new cut offs without him. If I went by what I think "probably is" tier 1, theres only 3 decks that fit that %.
Basically, where our cut offs are, how long we track data, and where do we get that data... were gunna be working on that for a while.
I'm a little surprised that Ktkenshinx didn't just leave you (and the rest of the moderating team) with his cutoff methodology. I imagine it's proprietary to him, but unless he's going to try to monetize his efforts, wasn't the best option to just give you his process?
As far as this deck goes. It actually had a spike last month, and steady wins since then.
While I like D&T, there is no reason we should be Tier 1. The format is so fluid that one month of increased interest doesn't really say anything, other than maybe we're better positioned now than we were two months ago. That sentiment is especially poignant given we hadn't received many (if any) new tools in a while (before Amonkhet). I can't think of anything in Aether Revolt that became a mainstay, and the only tool we got in Kaladesh was Smuggler's Copter. Admittedly, I don't know what caused a spike in interest, but I have a hard time coming up with a reasonable explanation for why this deck should be considered Tier 1 using pre-Amonkhet data.
Not going to list all the millions of changes I did in the last 7 hours... But Since there was an update:
Tiers updated... ALOT
Some of you may have noticed the tiering updating has lagged behind alot recently. Our data collection manager (ktken) is retiring from staff, so collection has been pretty hard for us. We are changing our systems completly, and over the next month I'll be rolling out the new benchmarks we use to tiering and testing them over the next half a year or so.
So just bare with us for a month, and everything will be clear and tip top shape.
So Shining Shoal is a hard-to-find rare from an old, Modern-legal set that sees fringe competitive play. A few weeks ago, it was $1-2 per copy. Someone must have (rightfully) decided that it was a reasonable speculation target and now we're here.
In light of the recent lack of unbannings for Modern, I'm curious as to how Stoneforge Mystic would change our deck. She has antisynergy with Leonin Arbiter but she just fits in with our small taxers sooooo well. What would DnT look like if SFM were unbanned?
We would probably run it, but it's not a certainty. Today, there are a lot of tools that keep SFM in check, including veryefficientremoval and discard.
The SFM/Batterskull package really punishes aggro, which is a large part of the format. But it does very little against control and it's only situationally useful against combo.
If the event that it were unbanned, I imagine that we immediately jam 4 copies with a Batterskull/Swords package until the metagame adjusts, at which point we have to become smarter about running it or not running it.
It would be a 0.5 Tier deck, making several Top 8s in tournaments. SFM just gets better with every new set, same problem Birthing Pod has. I really want her being unbanned, but that will never happen
This simply isn't true. If anything, SFM is getting worse with every new set. The reasons are twofold:
1) The removal is becoming moreefficient.
2) The equipment isn't powerful anymore.
The assertion that SFM has the same problem as Birthing Pod is ridiculous; every set is somewhat likely to have powerful creatures (the Birthing Pod problem), but not every set is likely to have powerful equipment (the SFM problem). In fact, SFM has been approximately the same power level since New Phyrexia, when Batterskull and Sword of War and Peace were released. Except theremoval in new sets has gotten much more efficient, meaning that SFM is comparatively much weaker than it used to be.
SFM is a good card. I suspect that we would play it if it were unbanned, but it's not going to be the piece that pushes this deck to Tier 1, let alone Tier 0.5.
We've seen some DnT decks sideboard Wraths before, do you think that Dusk could see play in sideboards? It's a grindy card that leaves some of our board state in tact, and in the late game gives us some recursion.
I know @CharonsObol has a spot for that card in his 75 reserved. I have played wrath in board before and while its a great a tool, I tend to not have a strategy that supplements it very well. I usually am trying to play more creatures that are above that 3 (or more) power curve. But as you point out, this leaves us with something and offers a snap caster vibe from the 'yard. I will leave the task of discovery this cards potential to @CharonsObol.
Sorry I'm so late to the party! It's been a busy few days.
I actually like Dusk, because it's a conditional Wrath that leaves us with a lot of our taxes. It also gets better with maindeck Selfless Spirit, which is pretty good to have anyway.
The problem with Dusk is that I'm not sure which matchups I would use it for. It's good against decks that put a lot of sizable creatures on the battlefield, and there just aren't many of those. I like Dusk against Merfolk and maybe Zoo, but Affinity, Elves, and Abzan combo dodge the effect just like we do. Maybe it's still worth 2-for-1'ing Jund or Abzan aggro, but it's not typically the blowout that we want it to be. I think Dusk actually gets a lot of its value from the Dawn side, because when BGx makes you discard it and then makes you sacrifice your creatures, you still get back a lot of your board state.
I'm definitely going to test Dusk to Dawn in my sideboard. I think it's typically competing against things in the EE slot (because that's currently the card in my board doing the most work against Merfolk and Zoo), but it does have potential upside in attrition-based matchups.
On another subject, I think with the addition of Harsh Mentor to the red suite, I'm finally going to move over to testing WR D&T. I'll try to have a mini-primer for it sometime this coming summer.
What do you guys think of the new white god? Better than Heliod, God of the Sun? I had some success with Heliod in the past, but lately i've been playing Elspeth, Knight-Errant instead.
I think it really depends on your build. If you're running a lotoftokenproducers and manlands, it might be worth it. But Oketra seems less impactful than most of our four-drops in a vacuum.
I'm excited to try out Oketra, but I play very non-traditional D&T builds.
leyline will let you land your sideboard hate card, otherwise you need to expect it to get discarded.
Have you considered Nephalia Academy? Came across that card but never actually played it. E&T can't really afford to play it, but maybe other builds can.
Nephalia Academy doesn't work on the draw, because it's that first Thoughtseize that does the most work.
Plus, you don't want to be running Academy in high multiples (because the effect isn't cumulative) and running it at all is a huge concession of a colorlesslandslot to your GBx matchups.
How does it help the deck?
If you can't swing through (and survive) you'll need some other way to tap the creatures which the deck doesn't have as far as I know.
It greatly increases our clock. Getting extra points of damage every turn is a huge boon for a deck that runs almost 30 creatures in it. Plus, I regularly run Lingering Souls, and Throne of the God-Pharaoh makes that card even more ridiculous.
But even in more conventional builds, Throne of the God-Pharaoh will occasionally you an opportunity to win a turn early; Your opponent won't necessarily get a chance to swing back for an alpha strike.
I'm calling it now that this card will exist as a reasonable 2-slot option for a long time to come.
What do people think of the new white weenie? Might be interesting in more aggro builds, though it is somewhat awkward with exert.
I care a lot more about Throne of the God-Pharaoh, which looks insane for our deck. Did we really just get access to a colorless burn spell? Isn't this the inevitability that we've always wanted?
If I have a Strangleroot Geist with a +1/+1 counter on it (so it's a 3/2), but then I target it with Channeler Initiate's "enters the battlefield" trigger, does the Geist's Undying trigger happen a second time?
Both the annihilation of the counters and the death of the creature should happen as a result of state-based effects; is there a predetermined order to these effects? Or do I get to choose the order? Or is it something else entirely?
A Green and white version of the deck just finished 5-2 in the online modern ptq this past weekend. Thats pretty impressive considering the stiff competition in those events.
Our meta is like 90% control. I believe the finks are meant to just be annoying creatures for control to deal with.
Finks are good against both aggro and control. I don't know what the control decks in your/his metagame look like, but the Grixis decks over here are packing Magma Spray and Anger of the Gods in addition to Fatal Push. Finks is typically good against things like Burn, where it not only gains you life, but also clogs up the ground.
I don't think his list is particularly strong. Even with his brewing to beat control I think I've only lost to him once when he was on his death and taxes deck. He builds and plays it a lot like merfolk, a deck he's extremely good with, but it isn't merfolk and can't be built like it.
None of his lists are particularly strong. I'm probably one of his biggest critics in this thread, but I don't know why a person who can't build the deck properly is writing about it. It's the blind leading the blind, I guess.
He also does test things out a ton though, which often results in bad decks but I can respect trying different things out. Who knows when you're going to stumble across the next big innovation in the deck.
Testing is good. We do a lot of testing here, and we discuss the innovations that come from tournament-successful lists. I applaud anyone for testing, including Ernenwein. But I'm just not impressed with what I've seen from his articles.
In a surprise move, I don't actually hate this article. Ernenwein finally wrote something about our deck that wasn't trash, and I'm going to give him credit for it.
His mono-white list is still mediocre, opting for five(?!) non-Vial one drops. He relies heavily on flicker packages, which is a good way to go, but his choice of two maindeck Finks is particularly interesting to me. I haven't tried Finks in a little while, but I have to believe that the metagame is so aggro-heavy that it's actually a good choice. It also puts in work against Fatal Push, which seems smart given some of the Grixis decks I've seen lately.
His description of splashes makes me believe he reads this thread. It's mostly just restating the things that we've been saying (and playing) for years, so good on him for finally catching up.
His assessment of the deck's weaknesses are accurate, and his discussion of SFM is consistent with the things that get said here.
I realize that this article really wasn't for us (because we already play the deck), but if it inspires someone else to pick up the deck, so much the better. Again, Ernenwein has picked up his game a little bit. It's rough around the edges, but improvement is improvement.
And finally, because it's obligatory at this point: we're not Hatebears. We never were Hatebears. We will never be Hatebears.
But this is a deck built around maximizing Restoration Angel's strengths - TKS' effect is neat, but does it match up to blowing someone out with a flashed-in Restoration Angel in response to an opponent's removal spell on your Blade Splicer? Or blinking the Splicer as a combat trick to completely change an opponent's combat math?
Generally speaking, no one spends their removal spell hitting the 1/1 Blade Splicer. It's a 20 turn clock, maybe 15 because this is Modern. But the number of times I've saved a Blade Splicer with a Blade Splicer is actually zero, and if that number is higher for you, I'm blaming your opponents.
However, the combat math thing can be a big deal. That said, once you try to play Resto to change the combat math, that's where your opponent will remove Blade Splicer in response, effectively negating your value.
Clearly, we have different experiences with Restoration Angel. I like flash and flying, but I don't like waiting for the right opportunity to play it.
I don't think it does, especially when jamming T4 TKS into open mana results in it just getting zapped with its trigger on the stack (as I've done many a time).
Not a problem, because I get to Thoughtseize my opponent for no mana and no life.
It can also get stonewalled on the ground by a beefy Goyf or Death's Shadow.
It can, yes. But if your opponent is leaving those creatures back to block, then you're already way ahead. And if your opponent is swinging with those creatures, then Restoration Angel isn't going to stop them either.
Most of us are on 7-10 colorless sources anyway, plus Aether Vial. Like you suggest, I've had TKS stuck in my hand before. But it's not as big of a problem as you're suggesting.
The math only changes once Eldrazi Temple is added to the deck, which makes TKS more like a 3.5 drop.
The math doesn't change at all, because your density of colorless sources should remain the same. If you couldn't cast TKS before with your 8 colorless sources, changing some of them to Eldrazi Temples isn't going to help you.
TKS does get better when you cast it before T4, because it's more likely to remove a relevant card in your opponent's hand. But Eldrazi Temple isn't actually required to get value out of TKS.
While I like D&T, there is no reason we should be Tier 1. The format is so fluid that one month of increased interest doesn't really say anything, other than maybe we're better positioned now than we were two months ago. That sentiment is especially poignant given we hadn't received many (if any) new tools in a while (before Amonkhet). I can't think of anything in Aether Revolt that became a mainstay, and the only tool we got in Kaladesh was Smuggler's Copter. Admittedly, I don't know what caused a spike in interest, but I have a hard time coming up with a reasonable explanation for why this deck should be considered Tier 1 using pre-Amonkhet data.
Also, it's seen some play recently in Death & Taxes. It arguably got some momentum when kaosofmind piloted this WG list to a 9th place finish (3/14), after which it got written about by Craig Wescoe (3/24), and it finally saw a T8 with this Vial-less mono-white list (3/26).
So Shining Shoal is a hard-to-find rare from an old, Modern-legal set that sees fringe competitive play. A few weeks ago, it was $1-2 per copy. Someone must have (rightfully) decided that it was a reasonable speculation target and now we're here.
The SFM/Batterskull package really punishes aggro, which is a large part of the format. But it does very little against control and it's only situationally useful against combo.
If the event that it were unbanned, I imagine that we immediately jam 4 copies with a Batterskull/Swords package until the metagame adjusts, at which point we have to become smarter about running it or not running it.
This simply isn't true. If anything, SFM is getting worse with every new set. The reasons are twofold:
1) The removal is becoming more efficient.
2) The equipment isn't powerful anymore.
The assertion that SFM has the same problem as Birthing Pod is ridiculous; every set is somewhat likely to have powerful creatures (the Birthing Pod problem), but not every set is likely to have powerful equipment (the SFM problem). In fact, SFM has been approximately the same power level since New Phyrexia, when Batterskull and Sword of War and Peace were released. Except the removal in new sets has gotten much more efficient, meaning that SFM is comparatively much weaker than it used to be.
SFM is a good card. I suspect that we would play it if it were unbanned, but it's not going to be the piece that pushes this deck to Tier 1, let alone Tier 0.5.
I actually like Dusk, because it's a conditional Wrath that leaves us with a lot of our taxes. It also gets better with maindeck Selfless Spirit, which is pretty good to have anyway.
The problem with Dusk is that I'm not sure which matchups I would use it for. It's good against decks that put a lot of sizable creatures on the battlefield, and there just aren't many of those. I like Dusk against Merfolk and maybe Zoo, but Affinity, Elves, and Abzan combo dodge the effect just like we do. Maybe it's still worth 2-for-1'ing Jund or Abzan aggro, but it's not typically the blowout that we want it to be. I think Dusk actually gets a lot of its value from the Dawn side, because when BGx makes you discard it and then makes you sacrifice your creatures, you still get back a lot of your board state.
I'm definitely going to test Dusk to Dawn in my sideboard. I think it's typically competing against things in the EE slot (because that's currently the card in my board doing the most work against Merfolk and Zoo), but it does have potential upside in attrition-based matchups.
On another subject, I think with the addition of Harsh Mentor to the red suite, I'm finally going to move over to testing WR D&T. I'll try to have a mini-primer for it sometime this coming summer.
I'm excited to try out Oketra, but I play very non-traditional D&T builds.
Nephalia Academy doesn't work on the draw, because it's that first Thoughtseize that does the most work.
Plus, you don't want to be running Academy in high multiples (because the effect isn't cumulative) and running it at all is a huge concession of a colorless land slot to your GBx matchups.
But even in more conventional builds, Throne of the God-Pharaoh will occasionally you an opportunity to win a turn early; Your opponent won't necessarily get a chance to swing back for an alpha strike.
I'm calling it now that this card will exist as a reasonable 2-slot option for a long time to come.
If I have a Strangleroot Geist with a +1/+1 counter on it (so it's a 3/2), but then I target it with Channeler Initiate's "enters the battlefield" trigger, does the Geist's Undying trigger happen a second time?
Both the annihilation of the counters and the death of the creature should happen as a result of state-based effects; is there a predetermined order to these effects? Or do I get to choose the order? Or is it something else entirely?
None of his lists are particularly strong. I'm probably one of his biggest critics in this thread, but I don't know why a person who can't build the deck properly is writing about it. It's the blind leading the blind, I guess.
Testing is good. We do a lot of testing here, and we discuss the innovations that come from tournament-successful lists. I applaud anyone for testing, including Ernenwein. But I'm just not impressed with what I've seen from his articles.
His mono-white list is still mediocre, opting for five(?!) non-Vial one drops. He relies heavily on flicker packages, which is a good way to go, but his choice of two maindeck Finks is particularly interesting to me. I haven't tried Finks in a little while, but I have to believe that the metagame is so aggro-heavy that it's actually a good choice. It also puts in work against Fatal Push, which seems smart given some of the Grixis decks I've seen lately.
His description of splashes makes me believe he reads this thread. It's mostly just restating the things that we've been saying (and playing) for years, so good on him for finally catching up.
His assessment of the deck's weaknesses are accurate, and his discussion of SFM is consistent with the things that get said here.
I realize that this article really wasn't for us (because we already play the deck), but if it inspires someone else to pick up the deck, so much the better. Again, Ernenwein has picked up his game a little bit. It's rough around the edges, but improvement is improvement.
And finally, because it's obligatory at this point: we're not Hatebears. We never were Hatebears. We will never be Hatebears.
Generally speaking, no one spends their removal spell hitting the 1/1 Blade Splicer. It's a 20 turn clock, maybe 15 because this is Modern. But the number of times I've saved a Blade Splicer with a Blade Splicer is actually zero, and if that number is higher for you, I'm blaming your opponents.
However, the combat math thing can be a big deal. That said, once you try to play Resto to change the combat math, that's where your opponent will remove Blade Splicer in response, effectively negating your value.
Clearly, we have different experiences with Restoration Angel. I like flash and flying, but I don't like waiting for the right opportunity to play it.
Not a problem, because I get to Thoughtseize my opponent for no mana and no life.
It can, yes. But if your opponent is leaving those creatures back to block, then you're already way ahead. And if your opponent is swinging with those creatures, then Restoration Angel isn't going to stop them either.
Flight and flash are good, but so is a Thoughtseize with legs.
Most of us are on 7-10 colorless sources anyway, plus Aether Vial. Like you suggest, I've had TKS stuck in my hand before. But it's not as big of a problem as you're suggesting.
The math doesn't change at all, because your density of colorless sources should remain the same. If you couldn't cast TKS before with your 8 colorless sources, changing some of them to Eldrazi Temples isn't going to help you.
TKS does get better when you cast it before T4, because it's more likely to remove a relevant card in your opponent's hand. But Eldrazi Temple isn't actually required to get value out of TKS.