So now that they posted the whole list and said that there won't be any reserved list cards, here is my thought process going through it. Sorry didn't read the whole thread, i'm sure some people came to similar conclusions.
Cards that most likely won't get reprinted:
Ancient Den, Great Furnace, Tree of Tales, Vault of Whispers, Seat of the Synod, Darksteel Citadel (No way are they wasting 6 slots on these)
Hypnotic Specter (while this used to hold casual appeal it's been reprinted and promoed a bunch so seems really unlikely)
Kird Ape, Hurkyl's Recall, Ponder, Icy Manipulator (all printed recently 3 of which have already been promoed and don't hold much value)
Tempest Efreet, Bronze Tablet, Timmerian Fiends, Jeweled Bird, Amulet of Quoz, Darkpact, Demonic Attorney, Rebirth (Ante cards seem really unlikely as the 5 colour format is pretty much extinct because of EDH)
Mishra's Workshop, Mana Crypt, Mana Drain, Imperial Seal, Gauntlet of Might, Chaos Orb, Ali from Cairo (I doubt they would put in high money rares like these as opposed to having them as judge promos, seems really unlikely with only Chaos orb Crypt and Seal having an outside chance)
Divine Intervention, Falling Star, Orcish Oriflamme (not iconic, not banned for power reasons)
Aether Vial, Disciple of the Vault, Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero, Arcbound Ravager, Squandered Resources, Rishadan Port, Thawing Glaciers
(These are all pretty narrow or need other cards to work and were mostly a product of their block environment, not iconic beyond their block)
Recall, Dingus Egg (hilaribad and not iconic)
Doomsday, Entomb, Flash, Gifts Ungiven, Land Tax, Worldgorger Dragon Trinisphere, Black Vise, Voltaic Key, Ivory Tower (restricted in T1 or banned in legacy and not terribly iconic, most of these need to be a four of, Tower is just silly and doesn't hold much nostalgia)
Fastbond (the deck it is in is dead and not a popular casual card)
Goblin Recruiter (Of the two goblins on the list it is obvious which needs a promo and which is the more popular one, Sorry Recruiter)
Cards that have already been promos, but some have a shot at being promoed again though slim.
Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Dark Ritual, Demonic Tutor, Enlightened Tutor, Fact or Fiction, Gaea's Cradle, Regrowth, Hermit Druid, Mind's Desire, Necropotence, Oath of Druids, Rukh Egg, Sol Ring, Stroke of Genius, Underworld Dreams, Vampiric Tutor
I would say that Sol, Cradle, necro, dreams and Vtutor have a small chance, but everything else would be sort of weird, to be promoed again.
Merchant Scroll, Personal Tutor, Gush, Frantic Search, Crop Rotation, Channel
Most of these are only banned because of the cards they work with, not in and of themselves. Most aren't even banned in legacy. With the exception of Channel none of these are really iconic. I could see these being FNM promos in the past but not now and not in this.
I doubt Mana Vault is iconic enough to get the cut especially over Crypt and Sol which i could see maybe making the cut. Zorb is a fairly big casual card but not nearly as popular as it once was.
That leaves these 16 cards:
Ancient Tomb, Balance, Berserk, Burning Wish, Demonic Consultation, Goblin Lackey, Lotus Petal, Maze of Ith, Mind Twist, Mystical Tutor, Sensei's Divining Top, Serendib Efreet, Skullclamp, Strip Mine, Tinker, Windfall
Petal seems a little weak in here, and windfall is a poor replacement for Wheel of fortune. Tomb is probably sketchy as the other two lands are more likely and if they put in sol ring it sort of overlaps. SDT is pretty loathed and not that old, i would love to see a foil one but i doubt it would happen in here.
I can easily see some of these cards getting the cut for Gaea's Cradle, Sol Ring. Vamp and Necro have a shot too since it has been a while and they are popular.
Final Guess
Balance
Berserk
Burning Wish
Demonic Consultation
Gaea's Cradle
Goblin Lackey
Maze of Ith
Mind Twist
Mystical Tutor
Necro
Serendib Efreet
Skullclamp
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
Tinker
1 White card, 2 Green cards (cradle being green) 2 Red cards, 3 Blue cards, 3 Black cards, 2 artifacts, 2 lands (3 with cradle).
Seems about right.
EDIT, turns out berserks are like 100 bucks, last time i checked they were like 20-40, that can probably come off.
The reason the card choices and numbers for the original sligh deck were so odd was, for that tournament you had to have at least 5 cards from every legal expansion in the deck, if you look at the other decks of the time you will see a ton of 4xSerrated arrows and a random card to fulfill the homelands requirement.
Talked to a local store here, and the owner said he was allowed to get 8 sets of these for being a gold tier store.
He hadn't ordered his eventide yet, so i doubt it is tied to how many cases you pre-order.
He also said the US suppliers will be getting these as well in limited numbers, but will only sell in limited quantities to each store. Also the suppliers aren't allowed to sell outside of the US (we are in Canada), he hadn't heard if any Canadian suppliers were getting any of these.
I think it's lame that these have a MSRP of $30 dollars when it's obvious if the demand is high and the supply is low the stores that are lucky enough to get these will be charging huge mark ups or just putting them on ebay. There is no way any smart store is going to sell these for anything less than double if that is what people are willing to pay for them.
/sorry if some of this info is known i didn't read every post.
I really don't understand the *****ing about the price going on in here.
A foil Kokusho alone is worth $20+ normal ones being $12+, the fact that you get 14 other dragons that may just be amazing seems like a good value to me. $2.35 a dragon seems like a good deal considering most dragons hold a price tag of $5+
if these are costing 15-20 each i dont even think i'll be able to get one
at the Toronto pre-release i'm going to, it costs 40$ per flight! ridiculously expensive. This is my first pre-release and i really wasnt expecting it to be this expensive.
and it starts at like 6:15 am! holy crap, i havent been up in time for breakfast at mcdonalds for a year at least, and that ends at 11am. ill just say that 6:15am to be there (which ends up taking me an hour and a half to get there as i have to pick up two friends on the way, hence i'll be leaving before 5 am) is pretty much out of the question. :S
I'll probably just end up going to trade i gues. (prefferably for one of the sick looking playmats )
You don't have to show up at 6:15 thats just when the FIRST flight starts, (out of about 20).
Also it's really not worth it to pay $40 dollars for flight I just wait a couple of weeks for the in store events which are only $25. (especially with our dollar so high)
I really hate how the Toronto pre releases are run, and I just show up to trade.
NeoDuress should never be bad after turn 5 against aggro, unless you whiff. It may not be optimal, but the worst case is you make them discard a Tarfire and basically play it for them.
Hit an incinerate? You just played the spell for them but only took 2/3 of the damage.
Hit a goyf they're holding back to play after you wrath away the one on the board? You just gained probably at least 8 virtual life that paleo-duress would never give you. Wrath vs. Topdeck at 2 less life> Wrath vs. New Goyf.
The only time this really hurts is when they are holding back nothing but land in hand, and duress doesn't get any better against that.
Thanks for explaining how discard works
But how many of those situations are better than Distress or Castigate?
Again i'm not saying this is bad cause it is obviously very good, i just don't think it is off the scale in playability and power until you get into the older formats where it is merely playable (which takes a lot). In T2 i really don't think you are going to maindeck this thing over stupor or distress that often. Castigate distress and stupor don't get run in many maindecks at the moment because they don't do enough vs burn decks, adding a card to your maindecks that is even worse than those vs burn decks doesn't seem very likely.
If you do need this in your sideboard vs slower decks the extra speed probably isn't that important, neither is the life though, so it is probably a wash with distress, unless colour commitments are an issue.
I would be pretty dissapointed if this was a rare because power level wise this isn't really that far ahead of the the other cards mentioned.
The shocklands obviously negate the point about life loss. 2 life on turn 1 is nothing, even in Standard. I'd much rather take 2 life and make you toss your 'Goyf then take (3, 4, 5) times 4 when you play it.
But shock lands don't always cost you 2. If you draw one in the mid game or you don't have a one drop, you don't need to take two.
This card is way worse than Distress after turn 5 especially vs an aggressive deck. I'm not saying it's bad but in type 2 the life loss is not insignificant depending on what you are playing against, and whether you have life gain/life loss in your deck.
Again this is just T2, this thing is way stronger in older formats.
T2 has Distress and Castigate at the moment. Remove one mana for 2 life seems perfectly acceptable costing wise. A lot of decks in T2 would rather have the 2 mana spells over this because life loss is more relevant in younger formats.
This only really gets good in older formats where life is a less valuable resource.
Wizards designs for the new formats not the old ones, and if they have an impact in older formats than thats just more gravy for them.
The correct answers probably spell something out, considdering every question has the full alphabet for answers. Anyone really board at work, and want to get busy on this ?
My store just got our arena kits today and I was happy to see that they did an awesome promo for this season.
I have no Idea what the second promo will be or if there will be a second one (like guildpact) Does anyone know the reason why they did two for Guildpact (wee dragonaughts and castigate) and only one for Rav?
(Sorry to all if this has been posted already i didn't see anything up regarding this.)
Edit: No I don't have a picture, but they look exactly the same as a normal foil one except with the normal arena logo instead of the simic one.
I'm sure the store i work at wasn't the only one to get these today, so someone else will be able to put a pic up in due time, though it is probably not really necessary.
Cards that most likely won't get reprinted:
Ancient Den, Great Furnace, Tree of Tales, Vault of Whispers, Seat of the Synod, Darksteel Citadel (No way are they wasting 6 slots on these)
Hypnotic Specter (while this used to hold casual appeal it's been reprinted and promoed a bunch so seems really unlikely)
Kird Ape, Hurkyl's Recall, Ponder, Icy Manipulator (all printed recently 3 of which have already been promoed and don't hold much value)
Tempest Efreet, Bronze Tablet, Timmerian Fiends, Jeweled Bird, Amulet of Quoz, Darkpact, Demonic Attorney, Rebirth (Ante cards seem really unlikely as the 5 colour format is pretty much extinct because of EDH)
Mishra's Workshop, Mana Crypt, Mana Drain, Imperial Seal, Gauntlet of Might, Chaos Orb, Ali from Cairo (I doubt they would put in high money rares like these as opposed to having them as judge promos, seems really unlikely with only Chaos orb Crypt and Seal having an outside chance)
Divine Intervention, Falling Star, Orcish Oriflamme (not iconic, not banned for power reasons)
Aether Vial, Disciple of the Vault, Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero, Arcbound Ravager, Squandered Resources, Rishadan Port, Thawing Glaciers
(These are all pretty narrow or need other cards to work and were mostly a product of their block environment, not iconic beyond their block)
Recall, Dingus Egg (hilaribad and not iconic)
Doomsday, Entomb, Flash, Gifts Ungiven, Land Tax, Worldgorger Dragon Trinisphere, Black Vise, Voltaic Key, Ivory Tower (restricted in T1 or banned in legacy and not terribly iconic, most of these need to be a four of, Tower is just silly and doesn't hold much nostalgia)
Fastbond (the deck it is in is dead and not a popular casual card)
Goblin Recruiter (Of the two goblins on the list it is obvious which needs a promo and which is the more popular one, Sorry Recruiter)
Cards that have already been promos, but some have a shot at being promoed again though slim.
Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Dark Ritual, Demonic Tutor, Enlightened Tutor, Fact or Fiction, Gaea's Cradle, Regrowth, Hermit Druid, Mind's Desire, Necropotence, Oath of Druids, Rukh Egg, Sol Ring, Stroke of Genius, Underworld Dreams, Vampiric Tutor
I would say that Sol, Cradle, necro, dreams and Vtutor have a small chance, but everything else would be sort of weird, to be promoed again.
Merchant Scroll, Personal Tutor, Gush, Frantic Search, Crop Rotation, Channel
Most of these are only banned because of the cards they work with, not in and of themselves. Most aren't even banned in legacy. With the exception of Channel none of these are really iconic. I could see these being FNM promos in the past but not now and not in this.
I doubt Mana Vault is iconic enough to get the cut especially over Crypt and Sol which i could see maybe making the cut. Zorb is a fairly big casual card but not nearly as popular as it once was.
That leaves these 16 cards:
Ancient Tomb, Balance, Berserk, Burning Wish, Demonic Consultation, Goblin Lackey, Lotus Petal, Maze of Ith, Mind Twist, Mystical Tutor, Sensei's Divining Top, Serendib Efreet, Skullclamp, Strip Mine, Tinker, Windfall
Petal seems a little weak in here, and windfall is a poor replacement for Wheel of fortune. Tomb is probably sketchy as the other two lands are more likely and if they put in sol ring it sort of overlaps. SDT is pretty loathed and not that old, i would love to see a foil one but i doubt it would happen in here.
I can easily see some of these cards getting the cut for Gaea's Cradle, Sol Ring. Vamp and Necro have a shot too since it has been a while and they are popular.
Final Guess
Balance
Berserk
Burning Wish
Demonic Consultation
Gaea's Cradle
Goblin Lackey
Maze of Ith
Mind Twist
Mystical Tutor
Necro
Serendib Efreet
Skullclamp
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
Tinker
1 White card, 2 Green cards (cradle being green) 2 Red cards, 3 Blue cards, 3 Black cards, 2 artifacts, 2 lands (3 with cradle).
Seems about right.
EDIT, turns out berserks are like 100 bucks, last time i checked they were like 20-40, that can probably come off.
The more you know.
He hadn't ordered his eventide yet, so i doubt it is tied to how many cases you pre-order.
He also said the US suppliers will be getting these as well in limited numbers, but will only sell in limited quantities to each store. Also the suppliers aren't allowed to sell outside of the US (we are in Canada), he hadn't heard if any Canadian suppliers were getting any of these.
I think it's lame that these have a MSRP of $30 dollars when it's obvious if the demand is high and the supply is low the stores that are lucky enough to get these will be charging huge mark ups or just putting them on ebay. There is no way any smart store is going to sell these for anything less than double if that is what people are willing to pay for them.
/sorry if some of this info is known i didn't read every post.
A foil Kokusho alone is worth $20+ normal ones being $12+, the fact that you get 14 other dragons that may just be amazing seems like a good value to me. $2.35 a dragon seems like a good deal considering most dragons hold a price tag of $5+
I'll buy at least 2 of these things if not more.
You don't have to show up at 6:15 thats just when the FIRST flight starts, (out of about 20).
Also it's really not worth it to pay $40 dollars for flight I just wait a couple of weeks for the in store events which are only $25. (especially with our dollar so high)
I really hate how the Toronto pre releases are run, and I just show up to trade.
Thanks for explaining how discard works
But how many of those situations are better than Distress or Castigate?
Again i'm not saying this is bad cause it is obviously very good, i just don't think it is off the scale in playability and power until you get into the older formats where it is merely playable (which takes a lot). In T2 i really don't think you are going to maindeck this thing over stupor or distress that often. Castigate distress and stupor don't get run in many maindecks at the moment because they don't do enough vs burn decks, adding a card to your maindecks that is even worse than those vs burn decks doesn't seem very likely.
If you do need this in your sideboard vs slower decks the extra speed probably isn't that important, neither is the life though, so it is probably a wash with distress, unless colour commitments are an issue.
I would be pretty dissapointed if this was a rare because power level wise this isn't really that far ahead of the the other cards mentioned.
But shock lands don't always cost you 2. If you draw one in the mid game or you don't have a one drop, you don't need to take two.
This card is way worse than Distress after turn 5 especially vs an aggressive deck. I'm not saying it's bad but in type 2 the life loss is not insignificant depending on what you are playing against, and whether you have life gain/life loss in your deck.
Again this is just T2, this thing is way stronger in older formats.
T2 has Distress and Castigate at the moment. Remove one mana for 2 life seems perfectly acceptable costing wise. A lot of decks in T2 would rather have the 2 mana spells over this because life loss is more relevant in younger formats.
This only really gets good in older formats where life is a less valuable resource.
Wizards designs for the new formats not the old ones, and if they have an impact in older formats than thats just more gravy for them.
Thanks!
My store just got our arena kits today and I was happy to see that they did an awesome promo for this season.
I have no Idea what the second promo will be or if there will be a second one (like guildpact) Does anyone know the reason why they did two for Guildpact (wee dragonaughts and castigate) and only one for Rav?
(Sorry to all if this has been posted already i didn't see anything up regarding this.)
Edit: No I don't have a picture, but they look exactly the same as a normal foil one except with the normal arena logo instead of the simic one.
I'm sure the store i work at wasn't the only one to get these today, so someone else will be able to put a pic up in due time, though it is probably not really necessary.