Tendrils just seems bad. I'd run KReturn right now.
Could you explain why tendrils is bad right now? I'm confused about running Kozilek's return or anger of the gods...
The consensus by now regarding sweepers has been, 1-2 Kozilek's Return and 0-1 Izzet Staticaster, 0-2 Temur Battle Rage. In an open meta which you really can't predict, i recommend this configuration.
Anger of the Gods is good if you expect a lot of Dredge and CoCo. Dredge particularly gets wrecked by Anger, whereas KReturn is pretty mediocre(that's why TBR is great, it insulates you from the random nonsense this format brings). Anger is better than Return against CoCo but Return is prefectly fine, especially along Staticaster and TBR.
I played Flaying Tendrils at GP SP, and while i didn't cross a matchup i would like one of the other sweepers, it felt underpowered against decks you might want to bring a sweeper but they are not a must. For example, i played against Faeries and had to bring them because i was stone cold to Bitterblossom, they felt bad. Return at least is an instant, and Staticaster is the best at dealing with those pesky x/1s.
To round up, i think the premise behind Tendrils is being more easy on the mana base, and being somewhere in the middle of Anger and Return, but fails to be spectacular in any of those matchups. That's why people are leaning towards the red sweepers depending on the meta and add some TBR to punch through. Return is the best right now because Dredge is nowhere to be seen. You will be fine against Dredge with KReturn and TBR/Staticaster, and you will destroy Affinity which is a Tier 1 deck.
I like it a lot. I personally have been pondering the idea of making GDS more aggressive and less controlish-hybrid.
TBR has continued to impress me out of the board because of what Friedman says, it gives you the "Oops i win" button which you opponents can either respect it and enter the "False Tempo" theory, or die to it. I'm really looking to move them MB.
The only card i'm not sold on is Dismember. While it powers some fast Death's Shadows, it's bad in multiples and with Snapcaster Mage, and it's mediocre against the card Death's Shadow itself. That should make the mirror a bit worse i guess?. If you are banking in TBR so much, you will lose a lot when you don't draw it.
I will test his list and see if it really matters.
PS: The list with 16 lands seems spicy and could be a even less hybrid version of Friedman's. It drops Snapcaster and plays more cantrips, that makes sense if you are planning to aggro you opponent out.
Okay i'm going to try one last time to explain my point.
I'm not saying Modern should be all about grinding to the ground every game during hours(i don´t like it so there's no bias here), i'm saying that the NORM of a competitive format should revolve around decisions and skill, not LUCK. It's okay to have Storm vs Infect, i think that matchup it's quite interesting and has some game to it, but the norm will be 3-4 Turns of Magic where the Infect player will not care about the opponent because he knows he doesn't have many ways to disrupt him, and will probably kill him T3 or T4. Storm will try to its thing quickly too because he knows the other side packs few interaction too.
This gameplay is fine and perfectly viable, the problem starts when 10 out of 15 rounds you find yourself in this situation. Then you have to pray the dice likes you and you initial 9 cards are what the doctor ordered.
I'm NOT complaining or being salty, i like Modern and it's the only format i play, but i would like it to be less variance-driven so playing Magic actually serves some purpose.
LAST PS: If the format stays this way i'm okay with it, but they hinted at unbans, and this is basically all what this talk is about, how can Modern can improve via the banlist, and i think it could do. If WOTC actually finds it wouldn't improve, then let it be and let's keep on playing.
Of course that was point of view, but from what i've seen from almost 7 years playing Modern, people have always complained about Modern being too SB guided, matchup-centric and fast. In my eyes, that's strictly because Combo is better than every other archetype.
I've heard other pros say it to, it's a theory, but i'm willing to bet my entire collection that if a combination of combo cards get banned, Modern would be better for the competitive scene. This is a format where Combo gets Legacy cards, and answers are not at a Legacy level, so that creates a linear enivronment once players recongnize what decks are the best.
Some combo cards we don't have:
Chrome Mox
Ponder
Preordain
Lotus Petal
Seething Song
Rite of Flame
Show and Tell
Reanimate
Exhume
Entomb
Xantid Swarm
And hell I don't even play legacy, so there are probably more I'm missing. I also can only think of five answers that are not in modern and they are all blue, but then again legacy is DOMINATED by blue thanks to FOW, Mistep, Flusterstorm, Daze and Counterspell. I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm telling you that human perception makes anecdotal evidence very very unreliable. We all tend to associate with people in a situation who are thinking like ourselves. It is far more likely that you will notice and remember people agreeing with you than otherwise, and it is a proven psychological phenomena that people are more than ready to dismiss all evidence that contradicts their perception. That's why it is not a good argument to talk in terms like yours. In fact, Storm has really only been at the top for a few months. Eldrazi Tron is not combo, Grixis Shadow is not combo, Burn is not combo, Affinity is aggro/combo so I'll concede that, Hatebears is not combo.
Let's look at things another way. Some people believe modern will be bad until blue is dominant, because a format lacking in powerful counters is deemed to be "uninteractive." Aggro basically sucks in legacy, but I'm hard pressed to find a loud contingent within the legacy playerbase calling for bans, unbans, or new cards to make go-wide aggro great in legacy. That format is midrange/tempo/control/combo. Standard will generally lack combo and prison entirely. No format has everything. That's just reality. The perfect balanced meta is a pipedream.
I've mentioned before, I hate BGx midrange, and while I know its only opinion, I feel compelled to say it over and over to make the point that no, the entire modern community is not sitting around waiting for jund to be great again due to something I can only describe as a weird nostalgia for a format two years old that probably wasn't as good as people make it out to be.
Yeah, we don't have Tinker and Yawgmoth's Will either, but that doesn't make Modern less Combo-Centric. Eldrazi Tron and Grixis Shadow are not combo, but they certainly push the boundaries of fair Magic by cheating on mana and being hyper-efficient. So what's left after trying to goldfish fast and efficiently? Playing overly-efficient cards like Death's Shadow,Chalice and TKS.
Burn is seen as a combo deck by many players, it's called Lava Spike Combo. I won't go into detail here, but it's certainly not an interactive deck.
The problem lies in that the best decks in Modern are trying to kill you as soon as possible(T3) and there are 2 exceptions, 1 which won't kill you fast, but will lock you out of the game on T2-T3 or create and advantage via cheating on mana that will be invevitable, the other(which in my eyes is the good guy) which is so efficient and pushed that make some strategies just bad at what they do(like Abzan,Jund,Jeskai,etc).
The format is GREAT diversity-wise, there are way too many viable decks, but the norm of the format is "2 Ships passing in the Night". This isn't good form a competitive standpoint. The PT will say it, but i'm convinced that Modern will look rather bad at the PT, just like most of the times it looks bad in the GPs and whatnot. What makes Modern be uninteractive? Combo.
PS: What most people cry about Modern is variance and uninteractivity. I don't recall anyone ever said they like playing past each other during hours. I respect that you might like it, but most people who play MtG don't.
Of course that was point of view, but from what i've seen from almost 7 years playing Modern, people have always complained about Modern being too SB guided, matchup-centric and fast. In my eyes, that's strictly because Combo is better than every other archetype.
I've heard other pros say it to, it's a theory, but i'm willing to bet my entire collection that if a combination of combo cards get banned, Modern would be better for the competitive scene. This is a format where Combo gets Legacy cards, and answers are not at a Legacy level, so that creates a linear enivronment once players recongnize what decks are the best.
When evaluating an unban, we really should ask three questions. I'm sure these are similar enough to the questions Wizards asks.
1. Does the unban increase/decrease net diversity?
2. Does the unban create a potential T4 rule violator?
3. Can we prove 1 and 2 with limited testing in small groups on tight schedules?
Incidentally, 1 and 2 are also ban criteria.
Some users, notably GK in recent posts, have accused Wizards of making up ban criteria in the past. I see where this comes from but ultimately don't belive it's true. All of their ban/unban rationale relates to 1 and 2 above, even if poorly phrased. Twin ban? It's diversity. Probe ban? T4 rule. GGT? Diversity, but framed through sideboards. Sword and AV? Attempts to increase diversity too. "No changes" in the last bunch of updates? Diversity and T4 rule not jeopardized.
Once we realize these two criteria are the guiding stars of Modern, we can evaluate any unban or ban through their lens. At least, with the caveat for unbabs that Wizards doesn't make unbans with millions of test games but rather smaller test samples and lots of discussion.
This is why a card like BBE seems very safe. It isn't a T4 rule violator, and it almost exclusively goes into Jund (for tiered decks) and maybe Temur (for untiered decks with potential). The rise of those decks would be unlikely to push anything out either, because competing midrange decks are few and far between. As those decks kind of suck right now and for most of 2017, this seems like an easy way to boost format diversity, and an easy case Wizards can make in a meeting.
I agree with you but i also have to be fair to GK. The lines WOTC draws in their criteria are VERY thin and unconvincing. As you say, they frame their reasonings behind concepts that make banning cards much more abstract and likely. That's why someone could make the arguement Collected Company should be banned, they could easily phrase that one to fall under their categories. Whenever they talk about Modern, the lines get blurrier and people freak out(in my humble opinion, they do it and they have the right to do so because recent years have seen many pillars nuked and people's trust in the format spiraled down very quick).
I just hope someday we get a Modern where the Top decks are not super linear and combo isn't the best archetype in Modern. In the end i think that's what most people want. Combo is the reason this format has so many competitive woes.
PS: @gkourou: Listen, i think you are right to care about those goals, but ulitmately, they will look at BBE and say, hey Jund sucks and Jund is a good deck for the format overrall as it promotes healthy gameplay, let's unban this toy and let them have fun, test the waters for future unbans and let them put Kalitas,Huntmaster and Olivia as SB options for metagame shifts.
BBE puts the bar too high for Standard to make a spalsh in Modern. Can you envision such a broken 4 drop in Red and Green colors to make BBE questionable? I certainly don't, and i think Bloodbraid Elf would still be the best 4 drop creature this format can offer(Better than TKS even). Standard midrange cards would have a harder time making it into Modern if BBE returns.
4 Drops have a hard time in Modern because they are 4 drops. Not because some false double standard argument. The best 4 drop this format has is unquestionably Cryptic Command. Bloodbraid Elf is one of the few cards that can compete against such a monster which is why most people propose for it's unbanning.
It's not about what you want or any player here wants, it's about what WOTC wants and it has always been that way.
Also, i said Bloodbraid Elf would be the best 4-drop CREATURE in Modern, which Cryptic Command does not qualify for. If you want to talk about general 4 Drops in Modern, i have TKS and Collected Company very well above Command and it's not even close. The gap between CoCo and TKS is close because both can be accelerated but that's trivial in this arguement.
I have to say that WOTC approach to the format would have to change in order for any card to be unbanned.
Right now Stoneforge Mystic, BBE, Jace and Splinter Twin all present conflicts with their last stated goals for Modern.
BBE puts the bar too high for Standard to make a spalsh in Modern. Can you envision such a broken 4 drop in Red and Green colors to make BBE questionable? I certainly don't, and i think Bloodbraid Elf would still be the best 4 drop creature this format can offer(Better than TKS even). Standard midrange cards would have a harder time making it into Modern if BBE returns.
Jace is pretty much the same, it's not broken in the current format, but you bet your money there won't be a better PW in Blue than Jace in a very long time.
Splinter Twin kills diversity and it would clearly make it to the top tier of the format overnight. This unban would be a "we want Twin to be the boogeyman of the format and we are ok with it being the best deck", doesn't seem likely considering there is no clear boogeyman in the current metagame and when there is one, it rapidly rotates to another one. This card is banned for the next couple of years AT LEAST.
Then there is Stoneforge Mystic. I'm willing to believe this card wouldn't break Modern and it would make the format even more interesting since no abusrd CoCo decks should abuse it. My problem with this card is, what decks are you targeting by unbanning this? Abzan seems just fine to be honest, it's another good option among good options. Vial decks are certainly not struggling, just look at the last SCG top 8.
Basically my point is, if they start making unbans(and the cards i listed above are pretty much the only ones you can consider right now), their vision of what they want for the format would have to change drastically. I'm still processing why they said they would look to unban a card.
Regarding Storm: As KTK said, the only ones who know if this deck violates the T4 rule is WOTC, so don't give much thought to this until the PT, where we will see how many Pros actually think the deck is utterly broken as some people say, or it's just a good Tier 1 amongst others. If the deck indeed breaks the T4 rule, i expect Grapeshot to be banned so this broken mechanic doesn't cause more problems.
So trying to figure how an unban chain could break out, i'm going to present a couple of questions.
Even though all cards in the banlist inspire some fear in me(especially after Valakut and Golgari Grave Troll) i think the consensus right now is that Bloodbraid Elf is safe for unban, and i'm going to take that train.
Could a BBE unban alone be the key to unban all the fair Midrange cards in the banlist? Especially Jace, which seems to be dangerous IF it's unbanned alone as
it could make Blue midrange the only midrange(Jace definitely doesn't help against most of the blazing-fast Modern environment). BBE first could be a test of how things fare up with a 4 CMC card that prove to be very powerful in a slower and older format, but was never really that dominant by itself.
After BBE, if it turns to be true that it is indeed safe, Jace seems natural to unban too as BBE+Jace could be a good balance between Midrange archetypes in Modern, assuming BBE is actually GOOD against JTMS.
After those two unbans, SFM could enter the talk. Actually, i think SFM is the best of all 3 cards(in a Modern environment) because of how powerfuf it could be against the agressive decks like Affinity and Burn. In my theory, if BBE and Jace are fine, the chances of SFM being super broken are slim. There's also the fact that BBE and SFM particularly become better as more cards enter the game. Is BBE into SFM too good???
I didn't go into full detail about how those cards could warp the metagame in a bad way or a good way. Just wanted to present those as food for thought.
Basically the premise revolves around: Taking the first danger step, unban 1)Bloodbraid Elf then 2)JTMS then 3)SFM. And this should be the order for danger of entering the format too.
I want to conclude this by saying that after yesterday's explanation about Modern, i'm very confident that they will unban Bloodbraid Elf after the PT. If BBE doesn't met their criteria and proves too powerful in testing, then banlist is locked for the foreseeable future.
Thanks for the heads up, i thought it was tomorrow too.
Regarding the very interesting and productive conversation about Banlist you were having, i have some thoughts too.
Modern is healthier than the people make it out to be. Yes, it's mostly dominated by uninteractive decks, but that's Modern 80% of its life, combo decks(aggro and spell based-classic) have always been the best archetypes and those do not want to interact.
Setting aside that point i think the Banlist could use some change for the better. I'm not sure they are necessary though.
-The scenario where Grapeshot/PIF,Temple/Chalice,DS/SW are getting hammered is basically imposible. I don't think that's never the direction they want to take and after the Standard fiasco that was last season i don't think they will recur to triple bans or double bans for some time.
-There is a scenario where they unban BBE to compensate the lack of Midrange in the top Tier of the format, and that change by now seems very logical, EVEN if i have a also logical fear of BBE+AV being a potential problem.
-SFM alone is still a no-go. The card itself inserts herself in the Tier 2 of the format to combat Eldrazi and Shadow(?) but in reality, i think Eldrazi Tron players will move to their old Bant Eldrazi and jam SFM themselves. I'm not saying it WILL happen but it's a concern when you think of the obejective of the unban.
-Lastly as much as i like Splinter Twin myself, i think Splinter Twin and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are NOT safe for unbans yet. They might be at some point in the future with new printings and meta shifts, but they are too risky to even take the chance.
This is my opinion and it's a little biased of course.
Also, i want to say that i prefer to live in a world where the best combo decks are the ones that the combo is a backdoor to nonsense like Pod and Twin.
Jeff Hoogland, a person who hasn't made a lot of friends in the Modern community, wrote an article a few months ago talking about which cards he would unban. http://www.gatheringmagic.com/jeffhoogland-09082017-modern-musings/
I know some are a stretch, like TC and DTT. But I'll be honest, i prefer to have those in the format and people fighting long fights and T3 combos being inherently worse than live in a combo-less Modern or maybe even this Modern format of GDS,Valakut,ETron,etc.
I really hope the guys who where hired recently test a bit and come to a conclusion about which direction is better. My gut tells me it's being closer to no-banlist than huge-banlist.
Yeah, i feel that unbanning cards makes the format more powerful and goes directly against their goals for it.
I always say, that Modern problems come from Combo being too good. The rest are just symptoms of this. I'm not saying Combo shouldn't exist, but it should be a little less good so less games resolve around trash cards like Chalice of the Void and first 8 cards, SB roulette, etc.
Sadly, i think the only direct way of fixing this is by banning combo decks(instead of consitency tools). i.e: Banning Grapeshot,Valakut,Mox Opal, etc.
Either way goes against format goals(Shorter banlist and be different form Standrad and Legacy respectively).
GDS is still the good guy in my eyes. I wouldn't be opposed to opening the floodgates(SFM,BBE,Jace,etc). I would rather this than banning all combo decks.
The best option of course is better answers for fair decks against combo decks. If Legacy is and example of anything, you see how difficult is to regulate combo decks without warping the whole format(Fair=Blue). And even then, combo decks are super good in Legacy.
I'm not going to nitpick anything you said, but i think there's one particular point you make that justs neglects reality.
"Probe was solidly Turn 4 Rule, but really strangely targeted. The main driving force for consistent, early kills was specifically Become Immense... not Probe. Yeah, Probe gave information, but decks like Infect were already more than capable of T2 or T3 killing before that anyway. It only became a problem when BI was helping them do it more consistently, and another deck (also running BI) was also wildly popular and strong. Several on-camera T2 and 3 kills don't help, especially with big names on GP streams playing <5 turns across a 3-game match."
Why do you only talk about DS Zoo and Infect when there was another clear violator of the T3 rule that didn't play Become Immense? UR Prowess was a very good deck and many players lastly opted to play that instead of the 2 aforementioned. The common denominator? Gitaxian Probe. All 3 decks abused it by enabling their most broken and explosive draws. That ban was really a great call by WOTC, even if Fatal Push was entering the format and COULD have mitigated the obnoxious speed of the format, ultimately that card is poorly designed and it would have been a much worse problem later.
Lists look good. Do you actually think Opt is better than Serum Visions in GDS? Because i think it's not even better than Sleight in GDS.
GDS doesn't work like a Delver deck, it works like a Jund deck with Delver if you will.
I can see the first list being a thing though. At least it work more on the principle of "Counters>Discard" so all the Opt being an instant thing actually serves some purpose.
My guess and bet is that, unless a more Delverish(less focused on grinding, more focused on Tempo) list becomes popular, Sleight will be the 3rd Cantrip of choice over Opt in classic GDS builds like todays. Serum Visions will still be a 4-of in every GDS build regardless of Opt being good or not.
Not only that Probe was a good ban(which admittedly thought it was unneccesary back then) but it could also be banned in Legacy before seeing the light of Modern again. The criteria WOTC used for the ban was correct and a good understanding of the effect Gitaxian Probe presents on formats. It really does too much for too litlle cost.
Cfusion is right that Probe wasn't particularly problematic before Become Immense, but after KTK, it clearly reached its full potential and became problematic in 2016, when 3 Top Tier decks where using it to kill on T3 consistently through disruption, and all 3 where basically a different flavor of the same deck.
Control is certainly in a good spot right now(because of Death's Shadow). The metagame is being kind to it and its taking advantage. I still believe a pure reactive deck like the UW that took the Classic yesterday can't really Top 8 the GP without major help from the matchup roulette.
It will be really interesting to see how WOTC handles the format come Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan. I still believe they can ban Shadow/Wraith and no one will be surprised. Against a format completely adapted to it, it still puts several copies in the Top 8. I guess it doesn't do it by comboing so that's good.
The consensus by now regarding sweepers has been, 1-2 Kozilek's Return and 0-1 Izzet Staticaster, 0-2 Temur Battle Rage. In an open meta which you really can't predict, i recommend this configuration.
Anger of the Gods is good if you expect a lot of Dredge and CoCo. Dredge particularly gets wrecked by Anger, whereas KReturn is pretty mediocre(that's why TBR is great, it insulates you from the random nonsense this format brings). Anger is better than Return against CoCo but Return is prefectly fine, especially along Staticaster and TBR.
I played Flaying Tendrils at GP SP, and while i didn't cross a matchup i would like one of the other sweepers, it felt underpowered against decks you might want to bring a sweeper but they are not a must. For example, i played against Faeries and had to bring them because i was stone cold to Bitterblossom, they felt bad. Return at least is an instant, and Staticaster is the best at dealing with those pesky x/1s.
To round up, i think the premise behind Tendrils is being more easy on the mana base, and being somewhere in the middle of Anger and Return, but fails to be spectacular in any of those matchups. That's why people are leaning towards the red sweepers depending on the meta and add some TBR to punch through. Return is the best right now because Dredge is nowhere to be seen. You will be fine against Dredge with KReturn and TBR/Staticaster, and you will destroy Affinity which is a Tier 1 deck.
TBR has continued to impress me out of the board because of what Friedman says, it gives you the "Oops i win" button which you opponents can either respect it and enter the "False Tempo" theory, or die to it. I'm really looking to move them MB.
The only card i'm not sold on is Dismember. While it powers some fast Death's Shadows, it's bad in multiples and with Snapcaster Mage, and it's mediocre against the card Death's Shadow itself. That should make the mirror a bit worse i guess?. If you are banking in TBR so much, you will lose a lot when you don't draw it.
I will test his list and see if it really matters.
PS: The list with 16 lands seems spicy and could be a even less hybrid version of Friedman's. It drops Snapcaster and plays more cantrips, that makes sense if you are planning to aggro you opponent out.
I'm not saying Modern should be all about grinding to the ground every game during hours(i don´t like it so there's no bias here), i'm saying that the NORM of a competitive format should revolve around decisions and skill, not LUCK. It's okay to have Storm vs Infect, i think that matchup it's quite interesting and has some game to it, but the norm will be 3-4 Turns of Magic where the Infect player will not care about the opponent because he knows he doesn't have many ways to disrupt him, and will probably kill him T3 or T4. Storm will try to its thing quickly too because he knows the other side packs few interaction too.
This gameplay is fine and perfectly viable, the problem starts when 10 out of 15 rounds you find yourself in this situation. Then you have to pray the dice likes you and you initial 9 cards are what the doctor ordered.
I'm NOT complaining or being salty, i like Modern and it's the only format i play, but i would like it to be less variance-driven so playing Magic actually serves some purpose.
LAST PS: If the format stays this way i'm okay with it, but they hinted at unbans, and this is basically all what this talk is about, how can Modern can improve via the banlist, and i think it could do. If WOTC actually finds it wouldn't improve, then let it be and let's keep on playing.
Yeah, we don't have Tinker and Yawgmoth's Will either, but that doesn't make Modern less Combo-Centric. Eldrazi Tron and Grixis Shadow are not combo, but they certainly push the boundaries of fair Magic by cheating on mana and being hyper-efficient. So what's left after trying to goldfish fast and efficiently? Playing overly-efficient cards like Death's Shadow,Chalice and TKS.
Burn is seen as a combo deck by many players, it's called Lava Spike Combo. I won't go into detail here, but it's certainly not an interactive deck.
The problem lies in that the best decks in Modern are trying to kill you as soon as possible(T3) and there are 2 exceptions, 1 which won't kill you fast, but will lock you out of the game on T2-T3 or create and advantage via cheating on mana that will be invevitable, the other(which in my eyes is the good guy) which is so efficient and pushed that make some strategies just bad at what they do(like Abzan,Jund,Jeskai,etc).
The format is GREAT diversity-wise, there are way too many viable decks, but the norm of the format is "2 Ships passing in the Night". This isn't good form a competitive standpoint. The PT will say it, but i'm convinced that Modern will look rather bad at the PT, just like most of the times it looks bad in the GPs and whatnot. What makes Modern be uninteractive? Combo.
PS: What most people cry about Modern is variance and uninteractivity. I don't recall anyone ever said they like playing past each other during hours. I respect that you might like it, but most people who play MtG don't.
I've heard other pros say it to, it's a theory, but i'm willing to bet my entire collection that if a combination of combo cards get banned, Modern would be better for the competitive scene. This is a format where Combo gets Legacy cards, and answers are not at a Legacy level, so that creates a linear enivronment once players recongnize what decks are the best.
I agree with you but i also have to be fair to GK. The lines WOTC draws in their criteria are VERY thin and unconvincing. As you say, they frame their reasonings behind concepts that make banning cards much more abstract and likely. That's why someone could make the arguement Collected Company should be banned, they could easily phrase that one to fall under their categories. Whenever they talk about Modern, the lines get blurrier and people freak out(in my humble opinion, they do it and they have the right to do so because recent years have seen many pillars nuked and people's trust in the format spiraled down very quick).
I just hope someday we get a Modern where the Top decks are not super linear and combo isn't the best archetype in Modern. In the end i think that's what most people want. Combo is the reason this format has so many competitive woes.
PS: @gkourou: Listen, i think you are right to care about those goals, but ulitmately, they will look at BBE and say, hey Jund sucks and Jund is a good deck for the format overrall as it promotes healthy gameplay, let's unban this toy and let them have fun, test the waters for future unbans and let them put Kalitas,Huntmaster and Olivia as SB options for metagame shifts.
It's not about what you want or any player here wants, it's about what WOTC wants and it has always been that way.
Also, i said Bloodbraid Elf would be the best 4-drop CREATURE in Modern, which Cryptic Command does not qualify for. If you want to talk about general 4 Drops in Modern, i have TKS and Collected Company very well above Command and it's not even close. The gap between CoCo and TKS is close because both can be accelerated but that's trivial in this arguement.
Right now Stoneforge Mystic, BBE, Jace and Splinter Twin all present conflicts with their last stated goals for Modern.
BBE puts the bar too high for Standard to make a spalsh in Modern. Can you envision such a broken 4 drop in Red and Green colors to make BBE questionable? I certainly don't, and i think Bloodbraid Elf would still be the best 4 drop creature this format can offer(Better than TKS even). Standard midrange cards would have a harder time making it into Modern if BBE returns.
Jace is pretty much the same, it's not broken in the current format, but you bet your money there won't be a better PW in Blue than Jace in a very long time.
Splinter Twin kills diversity and it would clearly make it to the top tier of the format overnight. This unban would be a "we want Twin to be the boogeyman of the format and we are ok with it being the best deck", doesn't seem likely considering there is no clear boogeyman in the current metagame and when there is one, it rapidly rotates to another one. This card is banned for the next couple of years AT LEAST.
Then there is Stoneforge Mystic. I'm willing to believe this card wouldn't break Modern and it would make the format even more interesting since no abusrd CoCo decks should abuse it. My problem with this card is, what decks are you targeting by unbanning this? Abzan seems just fine to be honest, it's another good option among good options. Vial decks are certainly not struggling, just look at the last SCG top 8.
Basically my point is, if they start making unbans(and the cards i listed above are pretty much the only ones you can consider right now), their vision of what they want for the format would have to change drastically. I'm still processing why they said they would look to unban a card.
Regarding Storm: As KTK said, the only ones who know if this deck violates the T4 rule is WOTC, so don't give much thought to this until the PT, where we will see how many Pros actually think the deck is utterly broken as some people say, or it's just a good Tier 1 amongst others. If the deck indeed breaks the T4 rule, i expect Grapeshot to be banned so this broken mechanic doesn't cause more problems.
Even though all cards in the banlist inspire some fear in me(especially after Valakut and Golgari Grave Troll) i think the consensus right now is that Bloodbraid Elf is safe for unban, and i'm going to take that train.
Could a BBE unban alone be the key to unban all the fair Midrange cards in the banlist? Especially Jace, which seems to be dangerous IF it's unbanned alone as
it could make Blue midrange the only midrange(Jace definitely doesn't help against most of the blazing-fast Modern environment). BBE first could be a test of how things fare up with a 4 CMC card that prove to be very powerful in a slower and older format, but was never really that dominant by itself.
After BBE, if it turns to be true that it is indeed safe, Jace seems natural to unban too as BBE+Jace could be a good balance between Midrange archetypes in Modern, assuming BBE is actually GOOD against JTMS.
After those two unbans, SFM could enter the talk. Actually, i think SFM is the best of all 3 cards(in a Modern environment) because of how powerfuf it could be against the agressive decks like Affinity and Burn. In my theory, if BBE and Jace are fine, the chances of SFM being super broken are slim. There's also the fact that BBE and SFM particularly become better as more cards enter the game. Is BBE into SFM too good???
I didn't go into full detail about how those cards could warp the metagame in a bad way or a good way. Just wanted to present those as food for thought.
Basically the premise revolves around: Taking the first danger step, unban 1)Bloodbraid Elf then 2)JTMS then 3)SFM. And this should be the order for danger of entering the format too.
I want to conclude this by saying that after yesterday's explanation about Modern, i'm very confident that they will unban Bloodbraid Elf after the PT. If BBE doesn't met their criteria and proves too powerful in testing, then banlist is locked for the foreseeable future.
Regarding the very interesting and productive conversation about Banlist you were having, i have some thoughts too.
Modern is healthier than the people make it out to be. Yes, it's mostly dominated by uninteractive decks, but that's Modern 80% of its life, combo decks(aggro and spell based-classic) have always been the best archetypes and those do not want to interact.
Setting aside that point i think the Banlist could use some change for the better. I'm not sure they are necessary though.
-The scenario where Grapeshot/PIF,Temple/Chalice,DS/SW are getting hammered is basically imposible. I don't think that's never the direction they want to take and after the Standard fiasco that was last season i don't think they will recur to triple bans or double bans for some time.
-There is a scenario where they unban BBE to compensate the lack of Midrange in the top Tier of the format, and that change by now seems very logical, EVEN if i have a also logical fear of BBE+AV being a potential problem.
-SFM alone is still a no-go. The card itself inserts herself in the Tier 2 of the format to combat Eldrazi and Shadow(?) but in reality, i think Eldrazi Tron players will move to their old Bant Eldrazi and jam SFM themselves. I'm not saying it WILL happen but it's a concern when you think of the obejective of the unban.
-Lastly as much as i like Splinter Twin myself, i think Splinter Twin and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are NOT safe for unbans yet. They might be at some point in the future with new printings and meta shifts, but they are too risky to even take the chance.
This is my opinion and it's a little biased of course.
Jeff Hoogland, a person who hasn't made a lot of friends in the Modern community, wrote an article a few months ago talking about which cards he would unban.
http://www.gatheringmagic.com/jeffhoogland-09082017-modern-musings/
I know some are a stretch, like TC and DTT. But I'll be honest, i prefer to have those in the format and people fighting long fights and T3 combos being inherently worse than live in a combo-less Modern or maybe even this Modern format of GDS,Valakut,ETron,etc.
I really hope the guys who where hired recently test a bit and come to a conclusion about which direction is better. My gut tells me it's being closer to no-banlist than huge-banlist.
I always say, that Modern problems come from Combo being too good. The rest are just symptoms of this. I'm not saying Combo shouldn't exist, but it should be a little less good so less games resolve around trash cards like Chalice of the Void and first 8 cards, SB roulette, etc.
Sadly, i think the only direct way of fixing this is by banning combo decks(instead of consitency tools). i.e: Banning Grapeshot,Valakut,Mox Opal, etc.
Either way goes against format goals(Shorter banlist and be different form Standrad and Legacy respectively).
GDS is still the good guy in my eyes. I wouldn't be opposed to opening the floodgates(SFM,BBE,Jace,etc). I would rather this than banning all combo decks.
The best option of course is better answers for fair decks against combo decks. If Legacy is and example of anything, you see how difficult is to regulate combo decks without warping the whole format(Fair=Blue). And even then, combo decks are super good in Legacy.
"Probe was solidly Turn 4 Rule, but really strangely targeted. The main driving force for consistent, early kills was specifically Become Immense... not Probe. Yeah, Probe gave information, but decks like Infect were already more than capable of T2 or T3 killing before that anyway. It only became a problem when BI was helping them do it more consistently, and another deck (also running BI) was also wildly popular and strong. Several on-camera T2 and 3 kills don't help, especially with big names on GP streams playing <5 turns across a 3-game match."
Why do you only talk about DS Zoo and Infect when there was another clear violator of the T3 rule that didn't play Become Immense? UR Prowess was a very good deck and many players lastly opted to play that instead of the 2 aforementioned. The common denominator? Gitaxian Probe. All 3 decks abused it by enabling their most broken and explosive draws. That ban was really a great call by WOTC, even if Fatal Push was entering the format and COULD have mitigated the obnoxious speed of the format, ultimately that card is poorly designed and it would have been a much worse problem later.
GDS doesn't work like a Delver deck, it works like a Jund deck with Delver if you will.
I can see the first list being a thing though. At least it work more on the principle of "Counters>Discard" so all the Opt being an instant thing actually serves some purpose.
My guess and bet is that, unless a more Delverish(less focused on grinding, more focused on Tempo) list becomes popular, Sleight will be the 3rd Cantrip of choice over Opt in classic GDS builds like todays. Serum Visions will still be a 4-of in every GDS build regardless of Opt being good or not.
Cfusion is right that Probe wasn't particularly problematic before Become Immense, but after KTK, it clearly reached its full potential and became problematic in 2016, when 3 Top Tier decks where using it to kill on T3 consistently through disruption, and all 3 where basically a different flavor of the same deck.
Control is certainly in a good spot right now(because of Death's Shadow). The metagame is being kind to it and its taking advantage. I still believe a pure reactive deck like the UW that took the Classic yesterday can't really Top 8 the GP without major help from the matchup roulette.
It will be really interesting to see how WOTC handles the format come Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan. I still believe they can ban Shadow/Wraith and no one will be surprised. Against a format completely adapted to it, it still puts several copies in the Top 8. I guess it doesn't do it by comboing so that's good.
EDIT:Correcting spelling mistakes.