I for one think that Reactive Control was not well represented despite that lone Jeskai Queller in Kobe. I'm not rushing any statements because we still have the SCG data.
But let's be honest. Grixis Shadow's best hands(i know this by experience) are the ones that are Jundy. The ones that involve Thoughtseize and Death Shadows in multiple copies. Serum Visions and Tasigur and Denial are just a backup to shore some combo matchups and give Snapcaster some targets. It's NOT a reactive deck by any stretch of imagination. It's more of a Jund deck than a Grixis deck in playstyle, and its best hands involve discard and Death Shadow, not Visions,Denial and removal.
The Scalding Tarn problem wasn't an error, he has Flooded Strands, maybe he couldn't find Tarns for the GP?
The MB´s are exactly mine except i was on 1 TBR instead of 1 Terminate out of 2.
The Sideboards are looking very straightforward too. I have to say, i'm quite surprised and happy that Grixis Shadow made Top 8 instead of Green variants.
I'm not saying your lists were jank or anything, but i know many people in the Control community try things that just don't cut it. They try to get fancy with cards that aren't powerful enough. Something that its said a lot is that control in Modern is super flexible. I think that's only true for SB's. Main decks are not that flexible in Modern because the threshold for cards to be succesful is quite high. UW has two proven builds that can vary a few cards, but you really can't go too far from those. It's the AV Greg Orange type, and the Sphinx Corey Burkhart/Cheon type. Those are well tuned and after testing many variations, those gave me most wins because they are good in what they do.
In conclusion, my adivce would be, stick to what it is known to be good, don't get fancy. Go to MTGGoldfish and look for UW in the meta chart, then figure what builds have most success.
Super hate the white splash in Grixis. Jund gets to Traverse for the lands and the bullets. Souls has great synergy with LotV. I'm not saying you can't splash it, but it seems suboptimal. I have to said though, this deck lacks a Souls type of threat from the SB. When threat density matters, this deck is lacking, so that's why i think your best bet is to out-tempo control decks rather than trying to outgrind them. That reasoning is a pro for Fulminator Mage, which gives you flexibility against Ramp, also giving you threat density and tempo(on the play) against Midrange/Control.
I think Dark Confidant is not good in Modern right now, not just Death's Shadow. Fatal Push established a threshold for 2-drops too narrow to punch through. Grim Flayer is still ok because in the right build it's a 4/4 with Trample which is super efficient. A 2/1 Baneslayer that has to wait a whole turn to start gaining advantage, and also gets killed by every removal spell in the format(the most played ones cost 1) INCLUDING Tarfire, just doesn't cut it. In Jund it can still be fine because their raw power is way higher. In tempo, high efficieny decks like Death's Shadow you can't spend a whole turn dropping a body that generates no value the turn it comes in. Dark Confidant was never a super good card in Tempo decks(look at Legacy for example, a much more removal-free format than Modern). It mostly sees play in prison decks like Loam and other Chalice decks.
The meta would have to be too skewed towards Path to Exile to make Confidant a great card again. If UW became Tier 1(solid Tier 1 i mean) then Jund can start preying upon those decks again. Until then, Bob is just a gem of the past.
I thought about too and my only conclusion was that people use them a lot as a grind tool in DS mirrors and BG and UX matchups, moreso than Tron and Valakut in which they just seem too slow or low impact. You see no one plays Souls or Truths, they go for Lili and Fulmi. Thats my reasoning.
About the Bolt issue. I think having 1 Bolt in your MB is obligatory in most metagames. I always like my tempo/control decks to have at least 5 1-mana answers to creatues, and the fact that Bolt is super versatile(+Snapcaster) just makes it even better. 4 Push/1 Bolt or 3 Push/2Bolt is where i want to be in this deck depending on what i expect to see(More PW and Combo favors the second split for example).
On the IOK issue. I'm on the train of playing 6 discard spells. Seriously, don't you like going on T1 and looking at your op hand, taking one card and playing with almost perfect info of your opponents gameplan? It feels almost unfair to be honest, just like Gitaxian Probe putted your deck in training wheels at no cost, this feels the same. I think 6 MB discards is where this deck wants to be, plus at least 2 Denials.
What has been the consensus about Spell Queller vs Runed Halo?. I think Halo is a monster against combo but many folks that grind on MTGO seems to forfeit Halo for Queller. I know the Spirit is super tempo positive as it answers and pressures at the same time, but i HATE that it doesn't hit Titan and Nauseam. Does it matter all that much?
I think Anger is just better in general, the casting cost is non-trivial but the mana base should get you there most of the time. I would cut 1x Push MB and jam 1x TBR, plus another one in the SB. I'm on the side that believes racing Champion is better against Affinity since i hate getting blown out by Ravager if they have a developed boardstate. You can put Angers anyways against them and race champion with TBR.
I think having all 4 Denials plus some Countersqualls is usually correct(4 Denials in the 75 is a must IMO). It makes combo matchups so much better.
Other than that, i like having 3-4 Terminates in my 75, it's pretty much obligatory given that Delve fatties and Eldrazis are the most played creatures in this format. Not sure if i would want 2 Terminates MB, but at least 1 for sure.
Yeah! I was waiting for someone to take the Shadow approach into Delver. I'm not completely sure about maindeck Thoughtseize, but Stubborn Denial seems good along the fatties. My only issue is that Delver doesn't turn it on, did that bring you issues?.
Also, your Sideboard seems tailored for this meta. Did Blood Moon showed up or it was medium?. I would exchange Push for a Dreadbore no matter how bad sorcery speed is, it kills big dumb stuff and PW's.
So, besides Negate, which countermagic do you think it's worth MBding?. Mana Leak is great early game, but if you are packing 4x Ghost Quarters instead of Tec Edge, then you will have a bad time considering your main removal spell is Path to Exile. Against Combo without creatures like Nauseam or Valakut, it might be fine but then it dies rather quickly. Logic Knot has not impressed me at all. Double blue+filling yard is not trivial.
So, if you plan to beat Nauseam with Cryptics and Negates i'm not sure you'll win a lot of games.
After all, that's why Control is said to not be viable right? Not having the abillity to have broad answers against most archetypes. Sure, you can pack some serious hate in the SB, nevertheless you can't expect to win a G1 against Nauseam and Dredge for example, while beating all the linear fest, while beating Tron AND Eldrazi. It's just the way Control lives in Modern, attacking certain decks. You can't win them all. The fact that Burn is practically unwinnable G1 with the no-Wall-Finks build just proves my point.
Which SB cards do you find stelar vs Dredge?. Does Anger,Spellbomb and Surgical do anything?. Do you think we need something like 4 Leylines to beat the deck consistently?.
This deck is pretty powerful yes. I think it's the best blue deck since Splinter Twin but not as opressive,and also, i think it won't be banned since it's capable of healthily regulating the format making Control decks good and goldfishy decks a little worse.
But let's be honest. Grixis Shadow's best hands(i know this by experience) are the ones that are Jundy. The ones that involve Thoughtseize and Death Shadows in multiple copies. Serum Visions and Tasigur and Denial are just a backup to shore some combo matchups and give Snapcaster some targets. It's NOT a reactive deck by any stretch of imagination. It's more of a Jund deck than a Grixis deck in playstyle, and its best hands involve discard and Death Shadow, not Visions,Denial and removal.
The MB´s are exactly mine except i was on 1 TBR instead of 1 Terminate out of 2.
The Sideboards are looking very straightforward too. I have to say, i'm quite surprised and happy that Grixis Shadow made Top 8 instead of Green variants.
In conclusion, my adivce would be, stick to what it is known to be good, don't get fancy. Go to MTGGoldfish and look for UW in the meta chart, then figure what builds have most success.
The meta would have to be too skewed towards Path to Exile to make Confidant a great card again. If UW became Tier 1(solid Tier 1 i mean) then Jund can start preying upon those decks again. Until then, Bob is just a gem of the past.
On the IOK issue. I'm on the train of playing 6 discard spells. Seriously, don't you like going on T1 and looking at your op hand, taking one card and playing with almost perfect info of your opponents gameplan? It feels almost unfair to be honest, just like Gitaxian Probe putted your deck in training wheels at no cost, this feels the same. I think 6 MB discards is where this deck wants to be, plus at least 2 Denials.
Thanks!
I think having all 4 Denials plus some Countersqualls is usually correct(4 Denials in the 75 is a must IMO). It makes combo matchups so much better.
Other than that, i like having 3-4 Terminates in my 75, it's pretty much obligatory given that Delve fatties and Eldrazis are the most played creatures in this format. Not sure if i would want 2 Terminates MB, but at least 1 for sure.
Also, your Sideboard seems tailored for this meta. Did Blood Moon showed up or it was medium?. I would exchange Push for a Dreadbore no matter how bad sorcery speed is, it kills big dumb stuff and PW's.
So, if you plan to beat Nauseam with Cryptics and Negates i'm not sure you'll win a lot of games.
After all, that's why Control is said to not be viable right? Not having the abillity to have broad answers against most archetypes. Sure, you can pack some serious hate in the SB, nevertheless you can't expect to win a G1 against Nauseam and Dredge for example, while beating all the linear fest, while beating Tron AND Eldrazi. It's just the way Control lives in Modern, attacking certain decks. You can't win them all. The fact that Burn is practically unwinnable G1 with the no-Wall-Finks build just proves my point.
Thanks!