I agree with nal2, counting fetchlands you have a total of only 14 green sources. Personally, I prefer 18. Also, the more shocklands you run (currently 6 in your list), the more damage you take whenever you draw them and have to play them untapped. If at all possible, play no more than 4 or 5 of them, and as nal2 already pointed out, you don't need Steam Vents anyway.
I would also recommend replacing a Kitchen Finks with a Reflector Mage.
With respect to Militia Bugler: Putting the occasional Saheeli on the bottom shouldn't be an argument against the card. You can just as well shuffle a Saheeli away from the top of your deck with a fetchland or Evo, you just don't see it happen in those cases. While it might feel bad, it's just variance, and you have to keep in mind that whenever you don't see Saheeli with your Bugler trigger, you've come 4 cards closer to the next Saheeli. Instead, you should judge Bugler by what its trigger actually achieves.
Which brings me to the point that, the more I play with Bugler, the less it impresses me. While it usually hits something (but I've also had quite a few complete blanks lately), it rarely does something great. The percentage of hits that are actually relevant (Felidar, Kiki, a handful of cards that matter in the respective matchup) isn't where I want it to be. While in theory, it can find both halves of the combo, in practice there is usually only one Kiki you can find, and chaining Buglers and Felidars for a few turns just doesn't accomplish enough in a format as fast as Modern. Maybe I've just not found the right shell for it yet, so I'll keep testing Bugler some more, but I'm not very high on the card at this point.
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nal2 posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordLovds: Three quick thoughts regarding your take:Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
1) With only 4 mana dorks I think 21 lands will end up being one too few, especially vs decks with a lot of 1-mana-removals. That's what I felt when running 21 lands at least and then I even ran 6 mana dorks.
2) 1 Steam Vents, 1 Mountain and 2 Ghost Quarters will probably lower your chances of playing mana dork on turn 1 or Voice of Resurgance on turn 2. I don't think Steam Vents is necessary in this deck and your list doesn't even run any blue cards apart from Saheeli Rai which many times can be cast for any mana thanks to Oath of Nissa. I would cut the Steam Vents and replace it with a Horizon Canopy (or another fetch).
3) 8 fetch lands are 1 or 2 too few to be able to abuse Lotus Cobra and Renegade Rallier. I would never run fewer than 10 fetches myself. -
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Siefer posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordAfter a couple of rough weeks, I decided to put my tinkering hat on, and now that I've got reasonable access to Competitive Leagues (manatraders!), I'm not limited to paper if I want a quality testing ground.Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
I just went 3-2 with this list, which isn't bad for a first draft.
I beat Humans, Titan Shift, and UR Wizards. I lost to Humans, and RDW.
Wizards: A very close 3 games. I really missed Staticaster in this one.
Titan Shift: He lacked the quantity of interaction he needed to keep me from comboing off two quick games in a row.
Humans: In the match I lost, I had sluggish hands, and I died on turn 4. The match I won was lopsided in the other direction.
Burn: I stuttered, and couldn't quite recover in a close G3.
- It feels like I want a 22nd land, but I'm not positive what should get cut. Maybe a Noble Hierarch? Both matches I lost, I struggled to hit land drops, and the deck generally feels pretty hungry.
- Bugler feels good, but I'm right on the edge of an acceptable number of hits.
- Siege Rhino felt like a million bucks.
- Glittering Wish was consistently good, but I'm not stoked on my current sideboard. Slaughter Games, Fracturing Gust, and Crumble to Dust are iffy to me.
- I felt the lack of Eldritch Evolution a couple of times. Bring to Light is capable of some really cool stuff, but it lack the explosiveness of Evo.
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nal2 posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordI cut counterspells because often I just unload as much as possible on my turn and can't really afford to hold up counter mana. It's also a pretty optimistic game plan with just a couple of non-tutorable counter spells - too many times they end up when I'm already behind or, in Unified Will's case, I don't have enough creatures to make it work.Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
Re: Terminus: I'm currently exploring having a couple of Planeswalkers in the sideboard for the UW Control matchup. Right now I'm trying Ajani Vengeant (which is also good against other matchups) and Venser, the Sojourner, but could see Chandra, Torch of Defiance being good as well. They are a non-combo with Gaddock Teeg in play, so perhaps playing stuff like Domri Rade and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar is smarter, although they are a lot weaker imo. -
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nal2 posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordPosted in: Deck Creation (Modern)Quote from Shelldell »Congrats @nal2 on the additional 5-0!
I like how you built the topend to give more 5-CMC payoff cards for Bugler, and the 5-drops are more playable thanks to Cobra-Rallier ramp. Where do you stand on Bugler now? I'm still frustrated that it misses half the combo but I think you've done a lot to solve the issue of cantripping into low-impact cards.
Along those lines, cutting down to 3 Felidars in a combo-centric Cobra-Rallier-Kiki list seems potentially counterproductive but I can see how Bugler drawing you into the Felidar half of the combo might make 4x slightly less necessary. What was your thought process here and how did it turn out in matches?
With a significant portion of your grind-potential tied to the graveyard how do you feel the list is positioned vs UW Control's Path, Terminus, and RIP? For that matter, how awkward is your own RIP?
I'm sure Siefer is eager to hear about how Stonehorn Dignitary performed...
Any other changes you'd make going forward? I'd love a quick rundown of the matches if you have time. Thanks!
EDIT: I will be running a variation of your list tomorrow:DeckMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Creature (27)
3x Birds of Paradise
3x Noble Hierarch
3x Lotus Cobra
3x Voice of Resurgence
1x Spellskite
3x Reflector Mage
2x Militia Bugler
2x Renegade Rallier
4x Felidar Guardian
1x Shalai, Voice of Plenty
1x Acidic Slime
1x Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Spells (11)
4x Saheeli Rai
4x Oath of Nissa
3x Eldritch EvolutionLand (22)
1x Breeding Pool
1x Flooded Strand
3x Forest
2x Horizon Canopy
2x Misty Rainforest
1x Plains
1x Sacred Foundry
2x Stomping Ground
1x Temple Garden
4x Windswept Heath
4x Wooded FoothillsSideboard (15)
2x Path to Exile
1x Fiery Justice
2x Rest in Peace
2x Stony Silence
1x Blood Moon
2x Gaddock Teeg
2x Militia Bugler
1x Izzet Staticaster
1x Stonehorn Dignitary
1x Reveillark
Thanks!
Regarding Bugler: Bugler is great! With 4 Oath, 3 Evolutions and 2 Buglers it shouldn't be that hard to find Felidar Guardian, making it a lot easier to run fewer than 4 of it. I'm currently on 2 Buglers, but could see going up to 3 as well.
Regarding 3 Felidars: See above comment, I think there are a lot of ways to get a Felidar Guardian in your hand or on the battlefield. Having a second copy of Felidar Guardian in your hand is often redundant and sometimes without Rallier, Saheeli or Oath on the battlefield it doesn't do much. I think 3 copies is perfectly fine, especially with Bugler in the deck.
Regarding graveyard centric: If people bring in graveyard hate against me it's perfectly fine - it doesn't stop the combo and against a lot of decks the Voices go out in the sideboard. My own Rest in Peaces are for graveyard combo decks such as Storm and KCI + Mardu Pyromancer / Vengevine / Hollow One and against those decks Voice of Resurgence usually goes out along with some other copies of Rallier/Witness.
Regarding Stonehorn: Stonehorn felt great, especially when combined with Kiki-Jiki I'm not 100% sold since there are so many other good cards to bring in vs the creature decks, but will definitely try it out more (also goes well with Bugler / Reveillark).
Regarding other changes: I would really like to fit in Cataclysmic Gearhulk in the sideboard and perhaps some lifegain main deck to be stronger vs Burn. Also have to try more against Tron; my current deck doesn't have any Moon effects (I don't feel Blood Moon is very good in the current meta + it hurts our own deck to much), so I'm eager to see how that matchup goes.
Last 5-0 league I beat Humans 3 times so that matchup seems so much better now with my current list. -
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nal2 posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordWorship, Ensnaring Bridge and Cataclysmic Gearhulk are really good cards vs Spirits/Humans. The last one also shines against other decks that put lots of permanents on the table (Elves, Lantern etc)Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern) -
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vennythekid posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordHi! I'm new to the deck, and took it out to a local tournament for the first time today. I went 3-0-1 and got second place. Here's a report and some thoughts and questions on the deck from me!Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
The list:
DeckMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Creatures(26)
4x Birds of Paradise
4x Lotus Cobra
4x Renegade Rallier
4x Voice of Resurgence
2x Felidar Guardian
2x Reflector Mage
1x Pia and Kiran Nalaar
1x Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1x Elvish Mystic
1x Shalai, Voice of Plenty
1x Thragtusk
1x Tireless Tracker
Spells(12)
4x Eldritch Evolution
4x Oath of Nissa
4x Saheeli RaiLands(22)
4x Misty Rainforest
4x Windswept Heath
3x Flooded Strand
2x Sunpetal Grove
2x Forest
2x Plains
1x Breeding Pool
1x Hallowed Fountain
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Stomping Ground
1x Temple GardenSideboard(15)
2x Fiery Justice
2x Stony Silence
2x Unified Will
1x Blood Moon
1x Sun Titan
1x Gaddock Teeg
1x Izzet Staticaster
1x Lone Missionary
1x Magus of the Moon
1x Obstinate Baloth
1x Reclamation Sage
1x Scavenging Ooze
Notes on the list: The Elvish Mystic should be a Noble Hierarch and the two Sunpetal Grove should be Horizon Canopy. Shrug.
Round 1: Heroic
My opponent was playing an old Heroic deck from Theros standard (I think).
Game 1: I get off to a slower start, but then explode onto the board with a Cobra, 2 Rallier, and Evolution a Voice into the P&K. The flooded board is too much for him to swing through, and I cruise to a win.
Game 2: I T3 combo him out with the classic T1 Birds, T2 Saheeli, T3 Felidar.
Not much to say about this match. I was simply playing a card-for-card more powerful deck than my opponent.
1-0
Round 2: Mono Green Devotion
Game 1: My opponent opens with 2 Arbor Elves and a Wistful Selkie, but can't find a Nykthos this game (I assume he's on Devotion due to the Selkie). I Reflector Mage his Selkie, and my opponent doesn't find a third land until a few turns too late. P&K comes out and cleans up their elves, and I get there with the beatdown.
Game 2: My opponent starts ramps out a T3 Garruk Wildspeaker, but I have T2 Cobra, T3 Rallier, Saheeli -2 to make a hasty Rallier to deal with it. I don't draw the evolution until the next turn, and combo off for the win.
Being able to keep up with the opposing ramp in game two felt strong.
2-0
Round 3: Grixis Shadow
Game 1: I play two Voice out early, and I'm able to fill the board enough to get through their first Gurmag Angler. By the turn my opponent has a threatening Death's Shadow, I can swing with the clean-up crew (an Elemental, 2 Cobra, and a Rallier) to finish the game.
Game 2: We both mull to 6 and keep awkward but playable 6-ers. My opponent casts Inquisition T1 and sees 2 Reflector Mage and some misc stuff. They take a Voice instead, and my Mages keep them off their Angler while I'm able to swing enough damage for the win.
Notably, neither of my hands opened myself up to Stubborn Denial, which was convenient. I was worried about Evolution in this matchup for that reason, but I never saw it. Reflector Mage was a powerhouse.
3-0
Round 4: Jeskai Control
Game 1: I make a mistake and keep a hand with no action until T3. My opponent has answers to my initial threats, including my Tireless Tracker and two Saheeli. They are able to take over the game with Snapcaster and Cryptic and eventually close it out. During the mid-game I had a Rallier rot in hand because I wasn't able to trigger Revolt.
Game 2: We both mulligan to 6, and I trade off my threat for their removal until we're both at one card in hand. With only 4 lands, my opponent taps his blue sources low for a Search for Azcanta, as I rip my Sun Titan off my deck. Safely around counterspells, I slam the Titan, get back a Saheeli to minus and copy Titan, to get back more value. My opponent draws path the following turn, but I eventually win the game off of the huge board swing.
Game 3: After two longer games, we're left with only 3 minutes to play out the last game. Unfortunately, neither my 7 or 6 have a quick combo kill, but my mulligan to 6 has a Bird, Felidar, and 2 Oath of Nissa, so I keep. We unsurprisingly go to turns. On turn 2 of time, I have Saheeli and Felidar in hand, and my only line to win is to Saheeli on T2 and Felidar T4 for the win. I go for it, and he has a Logic Knot for Saheeli so we end up drawing.
We decide to keep playing out the game for fun. I topdecked Thragtusk, and between the Thragtusk and a blink from Felidar, I'm able to win a race against the opposing Clique and Snapcasters.
3-0-1 (4-0?)
I'm pretty happy with my result as a first outing with the deck. Some thoughts on the my list:
- This deck is a ton of fun to play! It's explosive, and has a lot of options.
- It could have been the matchups I faced, but Shalai wasn't amazing today. Which maybe means it should be a sideboard card with something more broadly applicable in the main as a 4-drop.
- Likewise, Kiki-Jiki felt underwhelming in this list. I think its a tough ask to fetch around to hard-cast it, and I don't know that there's spots I'd want to Evolution for it. It seems like I've been mostly using Evolution to grab Felidar, rather than Kiki. Maybe more copies of Felidar would change that. Kiki seems correct to me, I'm just not excited to play it.
- I liked Pia and Kiran Nalaar in the main, but again double-red can a tough ask to fetch around.
- Sun Titan was insanely strong the one time I got to cast it. Perhaps I should move it to the main? I'm not sure if I like it better there or as a sideboard card for grindy matchups. It's probably a meta call.
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nal2 posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/Chord@Lejoon: I think we're talking in circles You say we're playing a combo deck - yes, I agree, that's why I like Lotus Cobra - we can combo on turn three with only that card in play. Heck, I have even won on turn 2 with Lotus Cobra. It's extremely explosive as you have said yourself.Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
We're playing a combo deck - but our combo is extremely fragile because it dies to any removal including Bolt. That's why we need to punish the opponent when he/she interferes with our combo - that's why we play Voice of Resurgence. If we don't have any other game plan than to rely on assembling the combo I think we're playing a very optimistic game plan.
Why are we playing the deck? I have always been a fan of creature combo decks that can win even without the combo, such as Project X back in the day and even Melira Company before it became too boring. Interacting with my graveyard is also something I very much like since it gives me more options, "makes my hand larger".
All that said - watching you play the deck or getting a 5-0 league with it is something I'm very much interested in. Because right now you don't have me sold.
EDIT: Attaching my latest list feat Bugler list that I'm testing at the moment, currently2-03-04-05-0(!) in league. -
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Siefer posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordA couple of broad thoughts to help guide this conversation:Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
Consider what our creatures are being asked to do. First, I think both version of the deck currently being discussed are combo decks at their core. Even when I was playing Cobra/Voice/Rallier, I was winning more than 50% of my games with a combo kill. That said, when we do need to win fairly, we're largely doing so off the back of our top tier access to hate. My current Dork/Wall/Moon build is running twelve 0-power guys, but I still manage to kill "fairly" in about 40% of my wins. This has a lot to do with the current makeup of the format - if I have a Stony Silence and Blood Moon in play, Tron is going to have a bad time regardless of what I'm attacking them with.
We certainly don't have flawless mana, but there's a reason I happily jammed 4 Blood Moons a couple of weeks ago. Our mana is pretty darn good, and because we're mostly G/W, we can often get away with fetching for basics after our initial land get. A fetch and a dork lets us cast everything in the deck not named Kiki-Jiki, and we never have to cast a Moon if we think it will hurt us more than them.
This is a skill-intensive deck, and it doesn't offer much margin for error on even seemingly innocuous things like fetching lands. As an example, I lost a game in the cash tournament due to not aggressively hunting for red sources. It would have been painful, but I didn't play to my hand, and was unable to hard cast a Kiki to win an otherwise unwinnable game. It's one of the things I love about this deck, but every damn decision feels like life or death, and the lines are often dangerous and complex.
I'm still going back and forth on Bugler. I love the immediate gratification it provides, I like the body, and appreciate that it plays nicely with all of our blink effects. The thing is, missing on Evolution and Saheeli drives me nuts, and sometimes I want a bit more oomph out of that slot. I may just play it safe and run Trackers again.
A less broad thought: Stonehorn Dignitary is totally nuts right now, and I highly recommend a copy in your 75, regardless of build. -
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Emzed posted a message on Saheeli Evolution/ChordHi everybody, I've done a little Bugler testing of my own, and here are some first impressions:Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
- I've been positively surprised with Bugler's miss rate. I haven't had complete blanks or hit useless dorks all that often. It helps that the 2/3 vigilance body is rather good with Noble Hierarch's Exalted.
- Now that UW control typically runs 2-3 Terminus, Voice has become worse and a card like Bugler feels like the right tool to fix that problem. (Apparently that's what all the Humans players at the recent PT concluded as well, since Xathrid Necromancer was largely replaced by Bugler in that deck.)
- However, as nal2 described above, you spin your wheels a lot when you chain Bugler, Wall, Felidar and Oath. Which can be totally amazing if you're facing UW, but not so much against Storm or KCI.
- What plays into the previous problem is the fact that while you dig through your deck pretty well, Bugler's cmc3 means you don't often cast a second relevant spell in the same turn. We have plenty of 3-drops already, which sometimes limits us to only one spell a turn even when we have 4-5 mana available.
- Bugler fits quite comfortably into a shell with 2-3 Reflector Mages and Kiki-Jiki, since those are some of the most high-impact 2-power creatures. However, it seems really hard to make the mana work, especially when we also have to consider (our own) Moon effects, Field of Ruin and potential removal for our dorks.
- In a match vs Burn I noticed how a bunch of 2/3s (Bugler and Reflector Mage) are great against their creatures. It's probably the only matchup where that is true, but I was really surprised how well Bugler performed there.
- I'm a huge fan of Gaddock Teeg as a sideboard card, and adding Bugler to the deck makes it even easier to find Teeg quickly. Obviously, the same is true for other silverbullet creatures.
All in all, I do see potential in Bugler, and I'm defintely going to test it more. However, I have a PPTQ coming up this sunday, and I don't feel comfortable with the Bugler list yet. Most likely I will run my Abzan Evolution list that splashes for Saheeli. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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4 Birds of Paradise
4 Lotus Cobra
3 Coiling Oracle
4 Renegade Rallier
1 Eternal Witness
1 Reflector Mage
4 Felidar Guardian
1 Shalai, Voice of Plenty
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Thalia's Lancers
1 Acidic Slime
1 Sun Titan
Spells (12)
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Saheeli Rai
4 Windswept Heath
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Flooded Strand
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
2 Forest
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Horizon Canopy
2 Rest in Peace
3 Fiery Justice
3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Worship
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Kataki, War's Wage
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
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linear combo decks -- you have hexproof
linear aggro decks -- 3/4 white flying body is good against Humans, Affinity, Taxes
grindy midrange -- fly over goyf, protection yourself from mid-game discard, protect combo pieces from spot removal, use her pump to win board stalls
control -- fly over snapcasters, even if she's the only threat to stick her pump makes her a fast clock
tron -- hexproof stops (or at least delays) Karn / Ballista / Ulamog cast-trigger / dismember / TKS / Warping Wail
That seems like a lock for the main deck to me... I'm having trouble imagining a meta where she would be bad.
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Looks like a nice main-deckable replacement for New Sigarda that you can Evolve into straight from your 2-drops. The hexproof fills the same role of protecting you from Burn, Discard, and Storm while also protecting Saheeli and the rest of your creatures. It does die to Push, though. It's also a mana sink to help against flooding or even act an outlet for the Druid combo. And a 3/4 flyer for 4! Really awesome card for the deck!
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-BBE's ability to cascade into either Saheeli or Eldritch Evolution seems good and relevant to our plan. The perfect case of crack fetch -> BBE -> Rallier -> rez Voice from GY is a little too Christmas-y to focus on but I agree that in general BBE exciting as a value card.
-On the flip side, BBE using Cascade instead of an ETB is bad with our core. You don't want to Evo into BBE, you don't want copy BBE, and you don't want to flicker BBE, and it's taking up the space of the payoff cards that you do want to Evo into / copy/ flicker like P&K, Baloth, Rhino, etc... so BBE generates value itself but also makes our existing value engine worse. We gain 3-4 good value cards but make 10+ cards worse. That's a hard sell when you really think about it.
-The silver lining to Cascade is the uncounterable on-cast trigger that's potentially attractive vs UW Jace
-Evo-ing BBE into Titan is potentially powerful and value-positive. I've ditched Titan for some time now due to clunky openers and poor Evo setup but this might make Titan worth trying again.
-Cascading into a 1-drop -- especially a 1-drop Dork -- feels pretty bad, however, encouraging us to keep our 1-CMC slot trim
-These curve requirements encourage us to build in the all-in value-beats "Hoogland" style
-By taking up more of our space in the 4+ CMC range with 3/2 creatures we lose toolbox space and become more focused on an aggressive but relatively flimsy board of 3/2s. The deck needs a lot of ways to consistently stop sweepers post-board to avoid getting blown out.
-Rallier's Revolt requirement is awkward with BBE -- you need to pre-emptively crack a fetch when you cast BBE without knowing if you'll hit Rallier, lowering the chances you'll have Revolt when you need it. I used to play Rallier in a CoCo deck (another 4-CMC card that can pseudo-cascade into Rallier) and it didn't sound like a big deal but the drop in consistency was pretty noticeable over several games and eventually put me off Rallier in CoCo decks. There's only so many times you can tolerate cascading into non-revolt or targetless Rallier.EDIT: I was wrong about Revolt off of BBE, thanks Lectrys
It’s an interesting, very pushed direction. A lot of us (including Hoogland) have become somewhat disillusioned by these sorts of all-in builds that trade consistency and interaction for explosive pro-active plays but I guess it’s possible that if we keep going all-in even harder if we’ll get to something great lol. I don’t think I’ll be rushing to buy a playset of BBE but I’m curious to see how everyone’s testing goes.
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Yes, playing Oath costs tempo. However, missing early land drops or flooding will cost you quite a bit of tempo, so I think of it like paying insurance.
IMO speed can win games, but consistency wins tournaments. I messed around with a Kiki Resto list recently without Oath and it wasn’t until it was gone that I realized how much it greases the engine. For whatever it’s worth Hoogland seemed to like Oath so much he ran it in a Kiki build without Felidars or anything else to blink it. If you build your deck around it I feel it’s one of the more powerful cantrips in Modern.
Oath also makes Felidar a more playable card, insulates your combo against Blood Moon, and digs for both combo pieces and silver bullets. Running more direct tutors like Lancers or Chord might give you better inevitability by the late game, but it will add a lot more variance to your early and middle game. That tradeoff is probably a matter of preference, so let us know how it goes!
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B) Honestly I don't have specific matchups in mind yet. This is a pretty drastic change attempting to address a systemic consistency issue that plagues all matchups to varying degrees. I'm really going to have to start testing all of my common matchups from scratch, rebuild my sideboarding strategy, and get used to all of the new lines that Wish introduces. I realize that's a big investment just to test a side brew. If you're looking for a place to start I'd just begin with a survey of relevant Tier 1 decks or whatever you face the most.
With that said if you're going to try running Wish I think you should go all the way with the playset to start and build a portion of your SB around it. Maaaaybe 3 copies as davius mentioned. At 2 copies you're just barely starting to get returns on consistency after you've lost some consistency by cutting to 3x Saheeli in the Main. If you're not comfortable going all in it's totally cool and I'll try to share some data and impressions as soon as I can.
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Are we a half-turn too slow with Wish? I've thought about that too and it's definitely possible. Against Storm and Vizier combo you need removal T2 and/or to combo out on the play T3. Running only 2x Paths, 3x Saheeli, and Glittering Wish probably makes this less likely game 1, although I've run into some lines with Lotus Cobra where I can still play Wish and combo out Turn 3. Depending on the probability of those lines (still need to assess) it may be correct to side the 4th Saheeli back in along with relevant hate pieces and interaction and then you're back to a normal deck games 2 & 3. We're certainly not favored for game 1 in these types of matchups, though, so I'm not sure how big of a problem that is.
On the other hand, the higher consistency of not only comboing out T4 but having backup pieces to spare really can't be overstated. The lines are a little too complex for my simple stat calculations so I can't offer an exact probability comparison but just give it a try. Against a lot of decks I suspect that a reliable T4 combo backed up by a second attempt T5-T6 will get you there. And in the other aggro matches where the combo is looking a little too slow having a tutorable Fiery Justice / Supreme Verdict / Fracturing Gust etc. might make up for it. I share your concern for speed and I'll keep an eye on it, but so far in theory and goldfishing it looks like it could be alright.
Yes, Oath's success rate at finding Saheeli is a little lower when you run 3 copies of her but it still works and is essential for smoothing your curve, raising consistency, and just generally turning Felidar Guardian into something that starts to resemble a reasonable card. Some of the early Wish builds tried to just swap Wish over Oath and it was a mistake.
Regarding Davius's question about focusing on combo and this deck's relative merit in the meta -- even in this build our Value Plan B is way better than Vizier's against decks like Death's Shadow, hands down. And you can still apply pressure with Cobra, Rallier, Voice. If you want you could omit Lancers and put a P&K, Wilt-Leaf Liege, or some other beater in as an Evo target. And lastly it's important to view Wish as more than extra combo pieces since the utility and hoser functions that it can serve can also support your plan B.
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@Davius: I agree completely and I'm glad I get to talk to someone with Wish experience before making all of those mistakes myself. My last thought before heading to bed last night was "I probably should carve out some more SB space for traditional interaction" and I was thinking about the relative speed and practicality of some of those targets. I agree on all of your suggestions, although I may try to be cute and keep the black at least for some initial testing since Kambal and Abrupt Decay seem really good in theory. Perhaps Rhino will come back into the main. 3 copies of Wish may be correct as well, but I'd want to start at 4 if only to get a better feel for it faster.
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However, I echo maniospas's comments that before you cash in the cards I would try something like one of Lejoon's recent lists which trades some of the explosiveness of the Hoogland approach for a more consistently smooth 6/2 Dork package, Wall and Courser for draw and filtering, and Paths in the main for interaction.
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With that out of the way I have a ~30 person MNM report:
4x Birds of Paradise
2x Noble Hierarch
3x Lotus Cobra
1x Qasali Pridemage
4x Voice of Resurgence
3x Renegade Rallier
1x Kambal, Consul of Allocation
3x Felidar Guardian
2x Siege Rhino
1x Thalia's Lancers
Spells (14)
4x Oath of Nissa
4x Saheeli Rai
4x Eldritch Evolution
2x Path to Exile
4x Windswept Heath
4x Wooded Foothills
2x Arid Mesa
1x Flooded Strand
1x Breeding Pool
1x Hallowed Fountain
1x Stomping Ground
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Overgrown Tomb
2x Horizon Canopy
2x Forest
2x Plains
1x Spell Pierce
2x Engineered Explosives
1x Gaddock Teeg
1x Kataki, War's Wage
1x Selfless Spirit
1x Stony Silence
2x Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1x Eidolon of Rhetoric
1x Izzet Staticaster
1x Reclamation Sage
1x Aven Mindcensor
1x Tireless Tracker
1x Cataclysmic Gearhulk
Match 1: Burn (0-2)
G1 I have to mull to a keepable 5 with Dork, Oath, Rallier, lands. He sticks T2 Eidolon. I Oath and reveal Siege Rhino... next turn he skull cracks Siege Rhino to seal the game.
G2 I keep a decent hand with Thalia and Rallier, maybe a dork. After his T1 Rift Bolt I play Thalia T2, licking my lips at the taxes that are about to come rolling in. On his T2 he plays Eidolon, which I'm able to remove a couple turns later with a lucky topdeck'd Rec Sage. He follows with a second Eidolon. At that point I decide to pay 4 to Evolve Thalia into Felidar and flicker Rec Sage. I'm able to Rallier Thalia back to the field the next turn but the damage from the double Eidolons has already taken a toll. I topdeck lands for several turns and he Boros Charms me dead.
SB: -2 Saheeli, -1 Lancers // +2 Thalia GoT, +1 Reclamation Sage
Match 2: WB Eldrazi & Taxes (1-2)
G1 I steal a win with a T4 combo
G2/G3 were pretty similar. G2 I did some cute opener things with Hierarch > T2 Cobra > Rallier > Oath > Engineered Explosives on 2. I set it to 2 thinking that I'd want to neutralize their namesake hatebears. Mistake. Opponent played Mirran Crusader followed by Flickerwisp. I detonated Explosives but he had another Thalia to replace it with (lol). Thalia's 2/1 first strike and Mirran Crusader's pro-green essentially invalidate Cobra and Rallier in combat. Eventually I got Rhino on the board but the opponent was able to attack with Crusader and then flicker it for psuedo vigilance. G3 was similar, except with the added salt of drawing 5-6 lands in a row. Lesson learned, hold the EE back until they commit to the board and then likely detonate at 3.
SB: -3 Evolution, -1 Kambal, -1 Lancers // +2 Explosives, +1 Staticaster, +1 Rec Sage, +1 Gearhulk
In hindsight even with the search hate I should've kept at least 2, maybe 3 Evos in since it's essential to both comboing out and getting Gearhulk into play, which felt like the only ways we're winning this matchup
Match 3: Bant Hatebears (2-0)
G1 We get into a board stall. I topdeck Rhino, then next turn I get to evolve Rallier into Lancers, play Saheeli the same turn, and copy Rhino to seal the game.
G2 I combo out on T4-5
SB: -1 Kambal // +1 Gearhulk
Match 4: Burn (2-0)
G1 I combo out at 5 life after my opponent gets greedy and decides to send his Swiftspear damage at me instead of finishing off Saheeli.
G2 He keeps my board clear for several turns. Eventually I'm able to stick Cobra > fetch crack > Evolve cobra into Rhino. Next turn I Felidar flicker Rhino but get Skull Cracked. I swing with Rhino to put my opponent at 1 with myself at 3. Stuck on 3 mana, I evolve Rhino into Kambal and my opponent scoops.
SB: -2 Saheeli, -1 Lancers // +2 Thalia GoT, +1 Reclamation Sage
In the future I might leave the third Saheeli and but cut the third Rallier
Overall 2-2
-The 6/3 dork config felt great and I recommend it for anyone in a meta with lots of fast aggro & combo decks.
-The third Rallier is not bad but feels flexible, I'm thinking more about what I want here... I might proxy up Jadelight Ranger for testing. Other options are Courser, Splicer, and KotR. I'd prefer to keep it GW to spare my manabase any more strain.
-Lancers broke through a board stall in a big splashy way. I can't tell yet if it was a little slow and win-more or simply win-enough. Definitely adds some good lines but is expensive and also must be supported with enough 3-CMC Evo fodder. Still assessing.
-Kambal was still a decent option against Burn, though worse than the Finks he replaced vs Hatebears. I did see at least one Storm player at the tables so for now I feel vindicated in running Kambal in the main but as a legendary below-curve creature he's going to have to put in some work to keep earning his spot.
-Mirran Crusader is tough. I'm open to tips in general vs WB Taxes if anyone has them. I probably just need to get some more practice against this deck.
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