I've been pretty happy so far with a very similar list : 2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor and 2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is pretty stock with 3 Snapcaster Mage. I'm still playing 4 Serum Visions and the combination feels very strong to me since the addition of Teferi and SfA. The deck is under the radar and can perform to X-5 / X-2 results in GP I believe.
Cindervines as an upgrade from Destructive Revelry seems decent. Have you guys played with it ? It could be good against Affinity, Lantern/Prison and even Control as a hard-to-remove enchantment that will deal several points of damage. Thoughts ?
I think the 3 mana Revelry mode is downright awful and I don't think the mini-Eidolon is enough to offset it. I still think Smash is where it's at.
Seems right for me. I'll stick to Revelry. Thanks !
I'm really glad to see that Esper did manage to get to day 2 ! The list looks good, I'm running something similar, but I feel that :
1) Vedalken Shackles feels odd.
2) 4 Timely Reinforcements is a lot. Too much I guess.
3) 6 fetches, really ?
4) Sideboard lacks disruption to my taste, but that could be my preference. I like 2 Thoughtseize.
5) Crucible of Worlds, Cataclysmic Gearhulk and Circle of Protection: Red are cool
Cindervines as an upgrade from Destructive Revelry seems decent. Have you guys played with it ? It could be good against Affinity, Lantern/Prison and even Control as a hard-to-remove enchantment that will deal several points of damage. Thoughts ?
Can someone provide an thorough analysis of the benefits of Skewer the Critics and Light up the Stage ? I've been around since 2014-ish with Mardu Burn, then Boros Burn (splashing green for Destructive Revelry in the sideboard). I feel what we've seen of Burn so far was very strong. At first, the new cards seem shaky and could have some upsides, but provide some downsides too (which make me reluctant to them). Thoughts guys?
Cheers !
In my testing with Skewer the Critics, I was able to cast it for R about 80% of the time. It's very easy for us to enable Spectacle, and that makes it another Lightning Bolt. I think it's an automatic 4-of in Burn now. Rift Bolt as a Spectacle enabler is a good sequence to play into if you can. Don't make the mistake of trying to get a Prowess trigger off of it. If you swing with Swift and connect, just fire it off so you don't get stuck with it.
I do not think that Light Up the Stage is good enough, and I think it's just the next draw card in a line of draw cards that Burn players pick up and drop in their quest to solve the "running out of gas" problem. I think that the most likely outcome with that card is a bad one. A deck is about 1/6 creatures, about 1/2 spells, and about 1/3 lands. If all creatures are live draws, then 2/3 of the deck is live. If they aren't, then 1/2 of the deck is live. The possible outcomes are:
Land-Land (probability 1/9): If I need a spell, I never consider this a good outcome and I consider it a waste of mana. If I'm 1 spell from winning, then I would have already had that spell in hand if I didn't put LUtS in my deck.
Land-Spell (probability 1/3): This amounts to a tax of R on your burn spell and you got a land to go along with it. I doubt the land is likely to be relevant, so I think this outcome is just worse than playing a burn spell.
Land-Creature (probability 1/9): If you cast LUtS late, this is likely very bad. If you draw an Eidolon late, you probably don't want it. If you draw Guide or Swift, it's probably irrelevant because they're outclassed and are just blockers.
Creature-Creature (probability 1/36): Probably not what you're after. Maybe 2 hasters is ok, but you need an empty board for it.
Creature-Spell (probability 1/6): If the creature isn't relevant, this is the same as an R tax.
Spell-Spell (probability 1/4): This is obviously good, except when you draw Rift Bolts or things that get trapped in exile due to lack of mana.
If creatures are always live draws, it's 1/9 dead-dead, 4/9 live-dead, and 4/9 live-live and that implies that 55% of the time is either dead or a tax of R on the burn spell you draw and only 45% of the time is a "good outcome". If creatures are always dead, it's 1/4 dead-dead, 1/2 live-dead, and 1/4 live-live and you're looking at 75% bad outcomes and 25% good outcomes. I think this suggests that it's not worth playing.
Imagine you need it to bail you out of a bad late game situation. If that situation is that you are light on lands, I'd question both how you're enabling Spectacle without enough lands in play and how likely it is that you're even going to win if you draw the lands now. Creatures probably are either dead or not connecting anymore later in the game, so it relies on Rift Bolt or having 2 lands in play. If you're flooding and need spells, there's only a 25% chance of double spell and I'd also question whether it's likely that double spell gets you there.
I've seen people suggest that land-land is good because "it moves them off the top". If you play LUtS and move 2 lands off the top, you've gained a slightly higher probability of drawing a spell on your next draw step because you've changed the denominator. In this sense, LUtS is worth some fraction of a spell here. Had you played a burn spell instead, that burn spell would have been worth 100% of a burn spell. I don't consider moving 2 lands off the top a uniformly positive outcome.
In addition to all of this, it's a bad top deck when you can't Spectacle. I don't think it's worth playing in Burn.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge : this primer is an absolute masterclass in content, analysis and writing. It simply is the best primer around and I feel very welcomed asking questions. You're the best man !
What would be now a stock mainboard ? Here's my take if including Skewer the Critics :
My meta is not full of creatures : there's Scapeshift, Jeskai Control, Storm, Affinity, Jund, Humans and Tron mostly. That's why I've felt that Searing Blaze should be moved to the sideboard, as I fear mostly lifegain effects (thus keeping 4 Skullcrack in the maindeck). Lifegain comes maindeck with Jeskai Control (Helix), Affinity (Skirge) and Jund (Ooze). But then again, Affinity, Humans and Jund would be good matchups for the creature-based removal (such as Searing Blaze and Path to Exile post-board). Considering we almost always go ''to the face'' rather than conroling the board, I guess going all-in with burn effects and not 2-1 with Searing Blaze is okay. But I could be totally wrong. Thoughts ?
Can someone provide an thorough analysis of the benefits of Skewer the Critics and Light up the Stage ? I've been around since 2014-ish with Mardu Burn, then Boros Burn (splashing green for Destructive Revelry in the sideboard). I feel what we've seen of Burn so far was very strong. At first, the new cards seem shaky and could have some upsides, but provide some downsides too (which make me reluctant to them). Thoughts guys?
I don't like no Serum Visions at all. Card selection is what the deck needs I think and raw card advantage from Jace, Azcanta and Hierogliphyc is additional.
Tron crushes control. The one time that I did better than 50% vs tron was when I was playing UW with 4x spreading seas, 4x field of ruin, 1x ghost quarter and 2x gideon of the trials. You either suck up the loss to tron or play a different deck.
Against mill, people were playing one eldrazi in the sideboard.
How do you guys manage the Tron matchup ? I have 3 Field of Ruin in the mainboard as well as 2 Negate, 1 Wear // Tear and 2 Stony Silence in the sideboard. I'm not sure how to sideboard in this matchup : do you think Vendilion Clique would be good ? How about Dispel also (I don't think it would do much). I guess it's all about speed, so I'm tempted to keep the burn spells to race them.
I can attest that Tron is a horrible matchup for Jeskai. In the 2018 MWP analysis I posted (https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/2018-top-deck-performance-review/), I found Gx Tron to be heavily favored against Jeskai Control with an overall MWP of 28.7% and a 95% confidence interval on that MWP of 19.2%-38.2%. The sample size for that was 87 games at the GP and SCG Open levels. It's such a bad matchup that, as rick attests, I might not even try to waste slots at improving it too much. Just let it suck and lean on your better matchups.
Thanks ktkenshinx : that's a net matrix on the metrics web site. Thanks for a valuable input in there !
How do you guys manage the Tron matchup ? I have 3 Field of Ruin in the mainboard as well as 2 Negate, 1 Wear // Tear and 2 Stony Silence in the sideboard. I'm not sure how to sideboard in this matchup : do you think Vendilion Clique would be good ? How about Dispel also (I don't think it would do much). I guess it's all about speed, so I'm tempted to keep the burn spells to race them.
Also, how do you win against UB Mill ? It's a silly question, but this deck is kicking my ***. I'm conscious about when to fetch to avoid the Trap, but sometimes you got to do it because you have to get your colors right and can't avoid the Trap. It's a tougher matchup than what it seems.
Here's my sideboard if you guys want to comment or would suggest changes :
Also, I 5-0'd last night's FNM with an Esper Draw-Go list if any of you are interested in it. I 2-1'd all of my matches, faced Jund, UR Pheonix, BG Rock, Grixis Shadow, and Dredge.
I dont understand your draw to Jace, he ISNT just too good, especially in UWR.
UW with Terminus? Sure, I'll bite that in that scenario Jace is good. Heck, even in the pure greed that is UWR + 3 Field + 3 Colonnade + 4 Terminus we can at least pretend that Jace setting up a Terminus is worth the tap out because against a lot of decks, a Terminus into untap into Jace/Teferi can be near game winning.
However Teferi is objectively, in this deck, the better card.
Now, I'm not huge on Terminus either. I hate hoping to win the lotto when I NEED a sweeper, but I only played a single Jace, because he's simply not that good in Modern.
Thanks for the constructive answer I feel that the raw power of Jace is really significant : Brainstorm, Fateseal and tucking away creatures is great. I mean, these modes are amazing to me. However, maybe Teferi fits best in the shell, but that doesn't mean Jace is not to be played. The best board states I ever had with this deck were a combination of Teferi + Jace, which was quite something. Also, I don't feel having 4 Snapscaster Mage is right, 3 is probably the correct number. And 3 Teferi feels overkill to me, so that's why I'm on a 2/2 split with Jace.
About Terminus, I agree with you! I feel like it's too much for a format with not the right tools, so having Supreme Verdict and sideboard options to shore up bad matchups.
Terminus has always felt clunky to me. I've tried and tried it around, in UW, Esper and even Jeskai. But nothing does it for me. I know it's good, but we're not in Legacy either. The set up is very clunky without Brainstorm and Ponder. I think 2 Supreme Verdict and spot removal should be enough to deal with aggro and some dedicated hate in the sideboard for Dredge / Humans / Spirits : Anger of the Gods, Runed Halo, Timely Reinforcement, Blessed Alliance, Celestial Purge, Rest in Peace (specifically for Dredge and graveyard strategies).
Here's what I came up with and it feels goods, even with Jace without Terminus (Jace is too good to not be played) :
I've seen Sukenik's list that runs 4 HI and it seems ambitious. Not that I don't like it, but I don't think we can run reliably without Serum Visions. And we've seen lately that Seth Manfield and Brad Neslon, pro players with good teams, tweaked the deck in order to win with it and they ran good. So I think we don't need Terminus and can shore up bad matchups with good sideboard.
I've been pretty happy so far with a very similar list : 2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor and 2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is pretty stock with 3 Snapcaster Mage. I'm still playing 4 Serum Visions and the combination feels very strong to me since the addition of Teferi and SfA. The deck is under the radar and can perform to X-5 / X-2 results in GP I believe.
Cheers !
Seems right for me. I'll stick to Revelry. Thanks !
Great ! Thanks !
1) Vedalken Shackles feels odd.
2) 4 Timely Reinforcements is a lot. Too much I guess.
3) 6 fetches, really ?
4) Sideboard lacks disruption to my taste, but that could be my preference. I like 2 Thoughtseize.
5) Crucible of Worlds, Cataclysmic Gearhulk and Circle of Protection: Red are cool
Cheers !
At GP Toronto, Titanshift placed 4 with the exact same 60 I use (different lands here and there), so I think we are in good shape.
All Scapeshift players : against Mill, what do we do ? It feels HORIBLE.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge : this primer is an absolute masterclass in content, analysis and writing. It simply is the best primer around and I feel very welcomed asking questions. You're the best man !
What would be now a stock mainboard ? Here's my take if including Skewer the Critics :
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
Spells (28)
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
4 Skullcrack
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics
2 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Path to Exile
4 Destructive Revelry
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Rest in Peace
3 Searing Blaze
2 Exquisite Firecraft
My meta is not full of creatures : there's Scapeshift, Jeskai Control, Storm, Affinity, Jund, Humans and Tron mostly. That's why I've felt that Searing Blaze should be moved to the sideboard, as I fear mostly lifegain effects (thus keeping 4 Skullcrack in the maindeck). Lifegain comes maindeck with Jeskai Control (Helix), Affinity (Skirge) and Jund (Ooze). But then again, Affinity, Humans and Jund would be good matchups for the creature-based removal (such as Searing Blaze and Path to Exile post-board). Considering we almost always go ''to the face'' rather than conroling the board, I guess going all-in with burn effects and not 2-1 with Searing Blaze is okay. But I could be totally wrong. Thoughts ?
Cheers !
Cheers !
Thanks ktkenshinx : that's a net matrix on the metrics web site. Thanks for a valuable input in there !
Also, how do you win against UB Mill ? It's a silly question, but this deck is kicking my ***. I'm conscious about when to fetch to avoid the Trap, but sometimes you got to do it because you have to get your colors right and can't avoid the Trap. It's a tougher matchup than what it seems.
Here's my sideboard if you guys want to comment or would suggest changes :
1 Blessed Alliance
2 Negate
2 Rest in Peace
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Stony Silence
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Timely Reinforcements
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Wear // Tear
Cheers !
List please for your 5-0 ?
Thanks for the constructive answer
About Terminus, I agree with you! I feel like it's too much for a format with not the right tools, so having Supreme Verdict and sideboard options to shore up bad matchups.
Cheers !
Here's what I came up with and it feels goods, even with Jace without Terminus (Jace is too good to not be played) :
3 Snapcaster Mage
Planeswalkers (4)
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
Spells (26)
3 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
4 Serum Visions
2 Spell Snare
3 Lightning Helix
2 Logic Knot
2 Hieroglyphic Illumination
4 Cryptic Command
2 Supreme Verdict
2 Search for Azcanta
Lands (25)
2 Arid Mesa
3 Celestial Colonnade
3 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
1 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Dispel
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Negate
2 Rest in Peace
1 Runed Halo
2 Stony Silence
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Timely Reinforcements
2 Vendilion Clique
I've seen Sukenik's list that runs 4 HI and it seems ambitious. Not that I don't like it, but I don't think we can run reliably without Serum Visions. And we've seen lately that Seth Manfield and Brad Neslon, pro players with good teams, tweaked the deck in order to win with it and they ran good. So I think we don't need Terminus and can shore up bad matchups with good sideboard.
Cheers !