Wow. Ok. I guess i'll explain again. You yourself said BW tokens plays anthems, so brimaz and hero can easily go above 3/4. And if they get 4/4 or 3/3 tokens, you can PLAY deflect palm instead of sitting on it like you said is necessary and then if they are at 3 or 4 life YOU win the game. Lightning helix is not a good card against BW tokens, because you don't want to wage burn spells taking out one of their 5 or something tokens. Last time i played modern palm would have been useful in pretty much every game, so i'm going to put it in. If it doesn't work, i'll move it to SB. We're repeating ourselves. You may be right. I may be right. I'm going to find out.
Anthems they play: 4x Intangible Virute, 3x Sorin (+1 mode), 1-2x Zealous Persecution. Last I checked, Brimaz and Hero aren't affected by Intangible Virtue because they're not tokens. Furthermore, creatures like Brimaz and Hero aren't playsets and you're not likely to see 4 between the two. You are wrong if you think it's wise to miandeck 2 cards in hopes that your opponent has one of three cards on board plus Sorin plus Zealous Persecution just ot make your 2 cards worth anything. Sorin is a 4 drop and BW Tokens doesn't have any ramp, so that mode won't happen until T4 at the earliest (when we want to be winning). Sorin also gives lifelink, so you fog one creature here and the others will deal damage and gain life putting the game out of reach for you. Zealous Persecution isn't a card you'll see too frequently. You're bringing in at most 2 copies of Palm.
Intangible Virtue - You'll see some 2/2 tokens because of this. Palm sucks here.
Sorin - It's already turn 4 and you want to win the game already. Fogging one creature for 3 or 4 while 3 more are at least 2 power and have lifelink isn't likely to do it for you. Palm sucks here too.
ZP - Again, you'll see a lot of 2 power creatures off of this and maybe 3 power if they have a Virtue as well. Palming for 3 sucks. Palming for 2 is terrible.
There are a few flex spots in a Burn deck, and Palm is fighting with much more useful spells here. It is an awful main deck spell unless you expect to be facing huge creatures. The 4 power you're hoping to see out of Tokens is the MINIMUM you want to Palm for, and you're more likely to see lower power than 4 here. That's BAD. You want to Palm for much more than that against something like Infect, they spend 2-3 spells pumping their creature up and you say "nope, you take 8". That hoses them. Palm is a reactive card that requires something huge to react to. Tokens doesn't have this. Merfolk doesn't have this. Twin doesn't have this. Delver doesn't have this without Tasigur/Angler.
Against a deck like this, you're waiting for them to swing to kill you and your best outcome is turning 4 of that around on them. That's a horrible decision on your part.
You have a few flex spots in the deck and it's usually taken up with Searing Blaze, Lightning Helix, and Shard Volley. Creatures are prevalent, so Blaze is a good card especially against tokens. Helix is a necessary evil sometimes because it can hit creatures and sometimes you need to kill certain flash creatures out of Twin, otherwise the game is over. Shard Volley serves the same purpose or is a finisher. In Naya, Skullcrack is also a flex card, to add a few more maindeck anti-lifegain. There is no room among these cards for a card that is good against a few decks and complete trash against others. Deflecting Palm is just that. It's a sideboard card, plain and simple. If you really feel compelled to lose games you could have won just so you can "surprise" your opponent for 3 damage, go for it. It's a terrible decision, but go for it.
I'm sorry but I think we just have different opinions, I think palm is good against more match ups than not. Against BW tokens for example, which my brother plays, he usually plays some huge creature like brimaz, king of oreskos or hero of bladehold or simply a bunch of pumped up tokens with his anthems, and deflecting palm is extremely effective against those. It's definitely good in that matchup.
If you're playing Naya burn, sure don't run it because you've got atarka's command, but if you're just boris i think it's a good choice, although it depends on the meta, as i said before. I have a lot of affinity decks in my local meta. You don't have to run it if you don't want to.
I think you misunderstand what card Deflecting Palm wants to be. You want to use Deflecting Palm when it is a Boros Charm or better, not Lightning Helix. You want to use it on a 4/5 or 5/6 Tarmogoyf, or a Wurmcoil, or a 8/8 infect creature. Why is it Boros Charm that you should compare to? 2 mana for 3 damage isn't great. Notice how we don't run Lightning Strike/Incinerate? With Deflecting Palm, you want to aim much higher than that.
I've played against BW Tokens several times, and I usually see small token creatures. There are only a few flex spots in Burn, and they're filled by cards like Shard Volley, Helix, and Searing Blaze. You mention Hero of Bladehold and Brimaz, which are both 3/4s. Against these two creatures, Deflecting Palm does exactly as much damage as Lightning Helix. The difference is that Deflecting Palm requires you to wait for them to build a board presence and attack you. This is NOT a card to bring in against BW Tokens. If BW Tokens has a bunch of 4/4 (even 3/3) tokens because of anthems, you've lost the game anyway.
Let's say you have them at 3 life on T4 and you're holding Lightning Helix: YOU WIN! Let's say you have them at 3 life and you're holding Palm, they only have 1 anthem out for some 2/2 tokens: you have a 2 mana shock and you're depending on your top decks to get the last 1. You may lose this game. You do not want to depend on your opponent to cast a spell like this unless that spell will be a blowout like it is against Wurmcoil or a huge infect creature. That's why you bring it in from your sideboard against matchups where you know it's a blowout.
This is not a simple difference of opinion. This is the definition of a sideboard card: a blowout against certain matchups that are dead otherwise. If you mainboard it, you will most often find yourself sitting on a dead card while your opponent keeps chipping away at you with small creatures or combos off on you. You should only mainboard this card if you are walking into a room full of Infect/Bogles, ie. decks that depend on building a single huge creature for the kill (much bigger than 4/4).
I know it seems like a sideboard card, but let's consider the effectiveness of a card such as lightning helix against decks such as scapeshift and twin: against twin, helix is just 3 damage to something, which is only 1 damage better than deflecting palm, and according to y'all we're already dead if they have 9000 tokens anyway. Against scapeshift, the only difference between helix and palm is the ability to target a creature, which is not useful against scapeshift anyway. Deflecting palm is NOT a dead card against this decks, it is merely subpar. But let's take a look at the match ups against affinity, infect, bogles, and anything else running tarmogoyf or tasigur/angler. Against the first three, you are almost guaranteed a win if you manage to palm their 9 power dude or whatever, so that should chalk up the win rate against those decks when we draw palm to basically 100%. Against decks with goyf or tasigur, we get a huge bonus as they lose the potential 4/5 damage, possibly extended our lifespan a turn or 2, and dealing them a spectacular 4+ damage!
Bottom line, I think 1-2 deflecting palm should replace 1-2 lightning helix in the maindeck. Why exactly would we want to gain life when we're playing burn?? It depends some in the meta, but i think it's worth a shot. Why not deviate from the norm a bit? It has the added advantage of catching your opponents by surprise.
>twin: against twin, helix is just 3 damage to something, which is only 1 damage better than deflecting palm
Deflecting Palm won't kill a Pestermite that is targeted by Splinter Twin. Helix will. That's a HUGE difference. Against Twin, you either lose the game, or you fog a Pestermite/Snap for 2 or Exarch for 1. That is terrible. Deflecting Palm is trash in this matchup. It's either a 2 mana Shock or a dead card because you're losing the game anyway. Complete and utter trash.
>Against scapeshift, the only difference between helix and palm is the ability to target a creature, which is not useful against scapeshift anyway
Again, Palm requires them to hit you with something. It's a dead card until they try to hit you. You would rather do that 3 damage to them on your terms, rather than theirs. It's a trash here too.
>affinity, infect, bogles...Against the first three, you are almost guaranteed a win if you manage to palm their 9 power dude or whatever, so that should chalk up the win rate against those decks when we draw palm to basically 100%
That's hyperbole. You won't always have Palm, and it won't always be an auto-win when you do.
Deflecting Palm is a completely dead card unless your opponent is trying to do a lot of damage to you. I'd rather have damage outright than have to wait until they're set up to try to win the game. It's a reactive card that is huge in certain matchups. That makes it a sideboard card ONLY.
>replace 1-2 lightning helix in the maindeck
Some decks don't even run Helix maindeck because Helix is a flex spot with cards like Searing Blaze and Skullcrack.
>Why not deviate from the norm a bit? It has the added advantage of catching your opponents by surprise.
Why not? Because in most matchups it's a reactive Lightning Helix that depends on your opponent having a strong board state or direct damage spells. Against other matchups, it's completely dead and a 2 mana Shock at best. That's trash. Twin doesn't care if you surprise them and Palm a Snapcaster. Twin cares if you Lightning Helix their Pestermite when they tap out on T4 for Splinter Twin. What about BW Tokens? They'll usually be 1/1s or 2/2s. Two mana Shock is TRASH.
The fact that Palm is trash against most matchups is why you want something else mainboard. We have sideboards to bring in huge cards for certain matchups. Palm is the definition of a sideboard card. It is an awful decision to use it in your maindeck unless you're walking into a room where every deck is Infect/Bogles.
Whatever. I'll try out deflecting palm and let y'all know how it goes. If it doesn't work out, I'll take move it to SB, simple as that.
If you run into Infect, it will be a good card. If you run into Twin, which is about 20% of the meta, it will be terrible. It's a sideboard card, end of story. I bring it in against decks with creatures with 4 power or more, ie. Goyf, Tasigur, Mandrills, Wurmcoil, Cranial Plating, Goryo/Breach decks, etc. I bring it in when it's a Boros Charm or better. It fogs them, doesn't target, prevents lifelink, and deals a lot of damage in these cases.
Against Merfolk? If they get to 4 power with anything, you've lost. Twin? Fine, fog one of their 9000 Pestermites for 2 damage, you lost anyway. Scapeshift? Valakut does damage X times for 3 each, so you only fog and redirect 3 of it. In cases like this, you'd much rather have Lightning Helix for a guaranteed 3 to the face or to kill a creature. Deflecting Palm is an amazing card when it works, but it's terrible otherwise because it's a dead card. My suspicion is that you'll maindeck it, strike gold once and proclaim it to be great without acknowledging just how terrible it is when you don't strike gold. It's a sideboard card only. Maindeck cards in Burn should guarantee something, not hope for greatness at the possibility of colossal failure.
I have been reading and posting to this thread for awhile now, so I say this with that experience in mind. Please, for the sake of everything holy and virtuous, remember that the definition of a "Burn" deck is contingent upon one simple equation: Spell Resolution = Immediate Damage. The ONLY caveat to this equation should be Eidolon of the Great Revel; as it has the potential to do long term damage with no further input (fire and forget, if you will). Addionally, a true "Burn" deck contains, on average, eight or so creatures - NO MORE. To clarify, Goblin Guide is a self repeating burn spell. It requires no further input, other than to be declared as an attacker during the combat phase. Certainly not last nor least, Rift Bolt DOES NOT combo well with Monastery Swiftspear as it takes either an entire turn to resolve or is mana inefficient to resolve immediately.
Thank you for your time and consideration...
Only 8 creatures? Strange, because every recent, high-performing list I've seen runs 12-14 creatures. 4 Guide, 4 Eidolon, 4 Swiftspear, and 2 Grim Lavamancer. That's the standard right now. Rift Bolt DOES combo just fine with Swiftspear, it just does it next turn instead of this one. The nice thing about a suspended Rift Bolt is that it allows us to get damage in around a Mana Leak when we only have 3 lands. It also pumps Swiftspear when we're gearing up for a huge turn.
Lavamancer is for getting extra damage out of our spent spells in a long game as well as getting rid of problem creatures at little cost. I'm perfectly happy killing a Viscera Seer or Spike Feeder with a Lavamancer for 1 mana to prevnt CoCos infinite life shenanigans. Lavamancer is the real deal, but not in multiples so that's why you only run 2.
Swiftspear is often a Goblin Guide or better and is an automatic 4-of in the deck. Eidolon is the reason the deck became so much better a year ago. There's really no way you can run Modern Burn without 12-14 creatures. Every one of those slots is completely justified.
This is what I've been running for a while. I feel like lifegain is increasing in frequency and 6 maindeck Skullcracks helps a lot. I had been running 10 fetches, but I was having color fixing problems so I added another Heath. I fully expect Mesas to get printed in 6 months, so naturally these will become red fetches some day. I love Deflecting Palm! It's still a card that people don't expect, and they don't know quite how it works. I've had Infect players think it gives them 7 infect counters and I've had people think it makes Wurmcoil a net zero effect because of lifegain, only to tell them "nope, Palm deals the damage, not your creature".
The biggest issues I'm having, I think, are when to mulligan and how to sideboard.
I'll keep any 2 or 3 land hands. I think we can operate on a 1 land opener if the second land comes soon and we can get in a Guide on T1 and a Spike/Rift on T2 and T3. I'm more willing to keep 1 land on the draw. Does this sound reasonable?
Post board, I often find that the first cards out are Shard Volley, Skullcrack/Helix if I don't need their effects, and some number of Lava Spikes and Rift Bolts. This does increase the number of 2 drops in the deck, though, when I remove 2-4 LS/RB. In the mirror, I drop green and on the draw I drop Eidolon. Is it right to remove 1 drops for 2 drops, even if it gets a little slower? I do swap out some 2 drops when I can, though.
I'd been wanting to build Burn for about a year and finally built it about 2 months ago, and I started keeping stats from playing online. I'm at a 61.5% game win percentage after about 850 games.
There are 7 decks I've played more than 10 matches against and my game records:
Jund - 25-22
Junk - 18-20
Affinity - 18-21
UWR - 14-21
Merfolk - 15-14
CoCo Abzan - 19-9
Grixis Delver - 22-7
Next most common (more than 6 matches):
Esper Control - 14-4
WUBx Gifts - 11-11
Temur Twin - 9-10
UW Control - 10-5
BW Tokens - 8-6
Elves - 10-2
Stompy - 12-3
Naya Burn - 10-9
UR Twin - 9-8
Infect - 11-3
Mono-U Tron - 5-10
Pyro Storm - 11-4
UB Mill - 11-0
Are there any of these matchups that look like I'm astonishingly bad in?
I'd also Searing Blaze a mana dork on T2 if I can. I've found that this can often set back my opponent if they kept a 1 land plus Hierarch opening hand. If you don't kill the dork, you can expect something like Kitchen Finks on T3 if they've got another land.
I also find myself holding an Eidolon against Affinity.
If my opponent has a blue mana up, I'll only run out Eidolon if I can't do much else. It's not necessarily good to run out a 2 mana spell into Spell Snare to "see if they have it". Instead, I'd rather either drop Swifty and a Lava Spike or wait until the end of their turn and play a 2 mana instant to try to eat the counter for a T3 Eidolon.
I don't even like Growth. But yeah the main issue is that you cannot cast Become Immense within the first couple turns when your creature is likely to get through. Any other time it is just a removal or a blowout.
Certainly. I don't run any creature buffing spells at all, outside of Atarka's Command. Mutagenic Growth is the only one that is even remotely appealing to me.
Become Immense and other creature pumps are not what burn wants to do. You need a creature to use it, and we're creature light. You also need to have your creature be unblocked and you need your opponent to not kill the creature in response. In other words, you're setting yourself up to get 2 for 1'd. All they need is a bolt and your attack for 8 is 0. The only one that is worth considering is Mutagenic Growth because you can use it turn 1 to convert 2 of your life into 2 or 3 life on your opponent, but that is a very narrow set of circumstances.
Other people are saying it's not so certain. I'm feeling pretty good about picking up some Scalding Tarn but it's not a given they'll be reprinted. (It's possible that the reprint will cause a story plothole because the Eldrazi wrecked the place. I don't know enough about the story to say much about that.)
I suppose I buy into the idea that says "Wizards often does what we expect", and in this case what we expect is "Zendikar = enemy fetches" for the same reason that "Ravnica = shocks" and all 10 shocks were reprinted in RTR block. Not having 5 more fetch reprints in 6 months seems ridiculous to me. We're on a completely different time line with a guy named Ugin alive instead of dead, so exactly how the "Eldrazi wrecked the place" happened in the other time line and seems irrelevant. They created a plothole when they went back in time this block. It's a land matters setting, so I expect a lot of rare lands to show up in the set. I'd think we'll get enemey fetches and man-lands if they don't show up in MMB (something else if they do). I've yet to see an argument against a reprint that doesn't amount to "but but but 10 fetches in standard is too much shuffling".
For these reasons, I absolutely would not buy any Zendikar fetches right now. I expect a reprint and that BFZ blue fetches will be $12-15 and the non-blues $8-10. I'd rather have a playset of Tarns for $60 or less than a heavily played one for $40+.
Arid Mesa is almost certainly going to be reprinted in 6 months and it will be about $10 just like Wooded Foothills and Bloodstained Mire are now. Considering that, Mesa isn't worth $25 to me. For now, I'm playing 8 red fetches and 2 Windswept Heath until the Mesa reprint later this year. I just find myself being careful with the Heaths, and burning them when I need to get an untapped shock.
I've played against Grixis Delver on cockatrice a few times, and I'm 16-5 against it so far. It seems like the inclusion of Kolaghan's Command is a newer development for them, newer than Atarka's Command getting used in Burn.
I like Deflecting Palm and Molten Rain in these. You might get out ahead in a similar way to Abzan if they're on the play and they Shock to Serum Visions toGit Probe. I always deal with a Young Pyromancer as soon as possible. I don't think a Delver clock is too much to worry about since it'll take them a while to get there on a Delver. The Delve monsters can get out of hand if they end up with a T2 Tasigur, but a Deflecting Palm fogs a turn for you and hits them for a Boros Charm worth.
I think that Become Immense is too much of an investment for too little of return. Sure, it's great when it works for 6 (7 on swifty), but it's more likely not to work. I often have my Swift pumps canceled by a removal spell. With Become Immense you lose all of your Lavamancer fuel, you're probably tapped out, and they just killed the creature you targeted with a Bolt/Path/Electrolyze/Murderous Cut. It's big and flashy, sure, but it's way more than you need to do. A second Grim Lavamancer would be better. If you want to play with creature pumps, Giant Growth costs G for +3/+3, and Mutagenic Growth costs Phyrexian G for +2/+2. Of these, I think the only one I'd consider is Mutagenic Growth because it turns T1 Swiftspear into a 4/5 which means you can get it in before your opponent has mana for counters or kill spells and it's more likely to be a Phyrexian mana Shock/Bolt.
I'm also going to chime in and say Thunderous Wrath isn't worth it. The absolute worst thing that can happen with it is you draw it on T1 with no lands in play or after you've paid some colorless to Mana Leak or that Fish that counters unless you pay 1 to get a Rift Bolt through on upkeep. You really need some card selection effects to be able to play it.
Anthems they play: 4x Intangible Virute, 3x Sorin (+1 mode), 1-2x Zealous Persecution. Last I checked, Brimaz and Hero aren't affected by Intangible Virtue because they're not tokens. Furthermore, creatures like Brimaz and Hero aren't playsets and you're not likely to see 4 between the two. You are wrong if you think it's wise to miandeck 2 cards in hopes that your opponent has one of three cards on board plus Sorin plus Zealous Persecution just ot make your 2 cards worth anything. Sorin is a 4 drop and BW Tokens doesn't have any ramp, so that mode won't happen until T4 at the earliest (when we want to be winning). Sorin also gives lifelink, so you fog one creature here and the others will deal damage and gain life putting the game out of reach for you. Zealous Persecution isn't a card you'll see too frequently. You're bringing in at most 2 copies of Palm.
Intangible Virtue - You'll see some 2/2 tokens because of this. Palm sucks here.
Sorin - It's already turn 4 and you want to win the game already. Fogging one creature for 3 or 4 while 3 more are at least 2 power and have lifelink isn't likely to do it for you. Palm sucks here too.
ZP - Again, you'll see a lot of 2 power creatures off of this and maybe 3 power if they have a Virtue as well. Palming for 3 sucks. Palming for 2 is terrible.
There are a few flex spots in a Burn deck, and Palm is fighting with much more useful spells here. It is an awful main deck spell unless you expect to be facing huge creatures. The 4 power you're hoping to see out of Tokens is the MINIMUM you want to Palm for, and you're more likely to see lower power than 4 here. That's BAD. You want to Palm for much more than that against something like Infect, they spend 2-3 spells pumping their creature up and you say "nope, you take 8". That hoses them. Palm is a reactive card that requires something huge to react to. Tokens doesn't have this. Merfolk doesn't have this. Twin doesn't have this. Delver doesn't have this without Tasigur/Angler.
Against a deck like this, you're waiting for them to swing to kill you and your best outcome is turning 4 of that around on them. That's a horrible decision on your part.
You have a few flex spots in the deck and it's usually taken up with Searing Blaze, Lightning Helix, and Shard Volley. Creatures are prevalent, so Blaze is a good card especially against tokens. Helix is a necessary evil sometimes because it can hit creatures and sometimes you need to kill certain flash creatures out of Twin, otherwise the game is over. Shard Volley serves the same purpose or is a finisher. In Naya, Skullcrack is also a flex card, to add a few more maindeck anti-lifegain. There is no room among these cards for a card that is good against a few decks and complete trash against others. Deflecting Palm is just that. It's a sideboard card, plain and simple. If you really feel compelled to lose games you could have won just so you can "surprise" your opponent for 3 damage, go for it. It's a terrible decision, but go for it.
I think you misunderstand what card Deflecting Palm wants to be. You want to use Deflecting Palm when it is a Boros Charm or better, not Lightning Helix. You want to use it on a 4/5 or 5/6 Tarmogoyf, or a Wurmcoil, or a 8/8 infect creature. Why is it Boros Charm that you should compare to? 2 mana for 3 damage isn't great. Notice how we don't run Lightning Strike/Incinerate? With Deflecting Palm, you want to aim much higher than that.
I've played against BW Tokens several times, and I usually see small token creatures. There are only a few flex spots in Burn, and they're filled by cards like Shard Volley, Helix, and Searing Blaze. You mention Hero of Bladehold and Brimaz, which are both 3/4s. Against these two creatures, Deflecting Palm does exactly as much damage as Lightning Helix. The difference is that Deflecting Palm requires you to wait for them to build a board presence and attack you. This is NOT a card to bring in against BW Tokens. If BW Tokens has a bunch of 4/4 (even 3/3) tokens because of anthems, you've lost the game anyway.
Let's say you have them at 3 life on T4 and you're holding Lightning Helix: YOU WIN! Let's say you have them at 3 life and you're holding Palm, they only have 1 anthem out for some 2/2 tokens: you have a 2 mana shock and you're depending on your top decks to get the last 1. You may lose this game. You do not want to depend on your opponent to cast a spell like this unless that spell will be a blowout like it is against Wurmcoil or a huge infect creature. That's why you bring it in from your sideboard against matchups where you know it's a blowout.
This is not a simple difference of opinion. This is the definition of a sideboard card: a blowout against certain matchups that are dead otherwise. If you mainboard it, you will most often find yourself sitting on a dead card while your opponent keeps chipping away at you with small creatures or combos off on you. You should only mainboard this card if you are walking into a room full of Infect/Bogles, ie. decks that depend on building a single huge creature for the kill (much bigger than 4/4).
>twin: against twin, helix is just 3 damage to something, which is only 1 damage better than deflecting palm
Deflecting Palm won't kill a Pestermite that is targeted by Splinter Twin. Helix will. That's a HUGE difference. Against Twin, you either lose the game, or you fog a Pestermite/Snap for 2 or Exarch for 1. That is terrible. Deflecting Palm is trash in this matchup. It's either a 2 mana Shock or a dead card because you're losing the game anyway. Complete and utter trash.
>Against scapeshift, the only difference between helix and palm is the ability to target a creature, which is not useful against scapeshift anyway
Again, Palm requires them to hit you with something. It's a dead card until they try to hit you. You would rather do that 3 damage to them on your terms, rather than theirs. It's a trash here too.
>affinity, infect, bogles...Against the first three, you are almost guaranteed a win if you manage to palm their 9 power dude or whatever, so that should chalk up the win rate against those decks when we draw palm to basically 100%
That's hyperbole. You won't always have Palm, and it won't always be an auto-win when you do.
Deflecting Palm is a completely dead card unless your opponent is trying to do a lot of damage to you. I'd rather have damage outright than have to wait until they're set up to try to win the game. It's a reactive card that is huge in certain matchups. That makes it a sideboard card ONLY.
>replace 1-2 lightning helix in the maindeck
Some decks don't even run Helix maindeck because Helix is a flex spot with cards like Searing Blaze and Skullcrack.
>Why not deviate from the norm a bit? It has the added advantage of catching your opponents by surprise.
Why not? Because in most matchups it's a reactive Lightning Helix that depends on your opponent having a strong board state or direct damage spells. Against other matchups, it's completely dead and a 2 mana Shock at best. That's trash. Twin doesn't care if you surprise them and Palm a Snapcaster. Twin cares if you Lightning Helix their Pestermite when they tap out on T4 for Splinter Twin. What about BW Tokens? They'll usually be 1/1s or 2/2s. Two mana Shock is TRASH.
The fact that Palm is trash against most matchups is why you want something else mainboard. We have sideboards to bring in huge cards for certain matchups. Palm is the definition of a sideboard card. It is an awful decision to use it in your maindeck unless you're walking into a room where every deck is Infect/Bogles.
If you run into Infect, it will be a good card. If you run into Twin, which is about 20% of the meta, it will be terrible. It's a sideboard card, end of story. I bring it in against decks with creatures with 4 power or more, ie. Goyf, Tasigur, Mandrills, Wurmcoil, Cranial Plating, Goryo/Breach decks, etc. I bring it in when it's a Boros Charm or better. It fogs them, doesn't target, prevents lifelink, and deals a lot of damage in these cases.
Against Merfolk? If they get to 4 power with anything, you've lost. Twin? Fine, fog one of their 9000 Pestermites for 2 damage, you lost anyway. Scapeshift? Valakut does damage X times for 3 each, so you only fog and redirect 3 of it. In cases like this, you'd much rather have Lightning Helix for a guaranteed 3 to the face or to kill a creature. Deflecting Palm is an amazing card when it works, but it's terrible otherwise because it's a dead card. My suspicion is that you'll maindeck it, strike gold once and proclaim it to be great without acknowledging just how terrible it is when you don't strike gold. It's a sideboard card only. Maindeck cards in Burn should guarantee something, not hope for greatness at the possibility of colossal failure.
Only 8 creatures? Strange, because every recent, high-performing list I've seen runs 12-14 creatures. 4 Guide, 4 Eidolon, 4 Swiftspear, and 2 Grim Lavamancer. That's the standard right now. Rift Bolt DOES combo just fine with Swiftspear, it just does it next turn instead of this one. The nice thing about a suspended Rift Bolt is that it allows us to get damage in around a Mana Leak when we only have 3 lands. It also pumps Swiftspear when we're gearing up for a huge turn.
Lavamancer is for getting extra damage out of our spent spells in a long game as well as getting rid of problem creatures at little cost. I'm perfectly happy killing a Viscera Seer or Spike Feeder with a Lavamancer for 1 mana to prevnt CoCos infinite life shenanigans. Lavamancer is the real deal, but not in multiples so that's why you only run 2.
Swiftspear is often a Goblin Guide or better and is an automatic 4-of in the deck. Eidolon is the reason the deck became so much better a year ago. There's really no way you can run Modern Burn without 12-14 creatures. Every one of those slots is completely justified.
At 1 life, Pestermite and Exarch tap your CoB and kill you.
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
3 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
Creatures
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
1 Shard Volley
2 Skullcrack
3 Deflecting Palm
4 Destructive Revelry
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Path to Exile
1 Skullcrack
1 Lightning Helix
1 Searing Blaze
This is what I've been running for a while. I feel like lifegain is increasing in frequency and 6 maindeck Skullcracks helps a lot. I had been running 10 fetches, but I was having color fixing problems so I added another Heath. I fully expect Mesas to get printed in 6 months, so naturally these will become red fetches some day. I love Deflecting Palm! It's still a card that people don't expect, and they don't know quite how it works. I've had Infect players think it gives them 7 infect counters and I've had people think it makes Wurmcoil a net zero effect because of lifegain, only to tell them "nope, Palm deals the damage, not your creature".
The biggest issues I'm having, I think, are when to mulligan and how to sideboard.
I'll keep any 2 or 3 land hands. I think we can operate on a 1 land opener if the second land comes soon and we can get in a Guide on T1 and a Spike/Rift on T2 and T3. I'm more willing to keep 1 land on the draw. Does this sound reasonable?
Post board, I often find that the first cards out are Shard Volley, Skullcrack/Helix if I don't need their effects, and some number of Lava Spikes and Rift Bolts. This does increase the number of 2 drops in the deck, though, when I remove 2-4 LS/RB. In the mirror, I drop green and on the draw I drop Eidolon. Is it right to remove 1 drops for 2 drops, even if it gets a little slower? I do swap out some 2 drops when I can, though.
I'd been wanting to build Burn for about a year and finally built it about 2 months ago, and I started keeping stats from playing online. I'm at a 61.5% game win percentage after about 850 games.
There are 7 decks I've played more than 10 matches against and my game records:
Next most common (more than 6 matches):
Are there any of these matchups that look like I'm astonishingly bad in?
I also find myself holding an Eidolon against Affinity.
If my opponent has a blue mana up, I'll only run out Eidolon if I can't do much else. It's not necessarily good to run out a 2 mana spell into Spell Snare to "see if they have it". Instead, I'd rather either drop Swifty and a Lava Spike or wait until the end of their turn and play a 2 mana instant to try to eat the counter for a T3 Eidolon.
Certainly. I don't run any creature buffing spells at all, outside of Atarka's Command. Mutagenic Growth is the only one that is even remotely appealing to me.
Become Immense and other creature pumps are not what burn wants to do. You need a creature to use it, and we're creature light. You also need to have your creature be unblocked and you need your opponent to not kill the creature in response. In other words, you're setting yourself up to get 2 for 1'd. All they need is a bolt and your attack for 8 is 0. The only one that is worth considering is Mutagenic Growth because you can use it turn 1 to convert 2 of your life into 2 or 3 life on your opponent, but that is a very narrow set of circumstances.
I suppose I buy into the idea that says "Wizards often does what we expect", and in this case what we expect is "Zendikar = enemy fetches" for the same reason that "Ravnica = shocks" and all 10 shocks were reprinted in RTR block. Not having 5 more fetch reprints in 6 months seems ridiculous to me. We're on a completely different time line with a guy named Ugin alive instead of dead, so exactly how the "Eldrazi wrecked the place" happened in the other time line and seems irrelevant. They created a plothole when they went back in time this block. It's a land matters setting, so I expect a lot of rare lands to show up in the set. I'd think we'll get enemey fetches and man-lands if they don't show up in MMB (something else if they do). I've yet to see an argument against a reprint that doesn't amount to "but but but 10 fetches in standard is too much shuffling".
For these reasons, I absolutely would not buy any Zendikar fetches right now. I expect a reprint and that BFZ blue fetches will be $12-15 and the non-blues $8-10. I'd rather have a playset of Tarns for $60 or less than a heavily played one for $40+.
I like Deflecting Palm and Molten Rain in these. You might get out ahead in a similar way to Abzan if they're on the play and they Shock to Serum Visions toGit Probe. I always deal with a Young Pyromancer as soon as possible. I don't think a Delver clock is too much to worry about since it'll take them a while to get there on a Delver. The Delve monsters can get out of hand if they end up with a T2 Tasigur, but a Deflecting Palm fogs a turn for you and hits them for a Boros Charm worth.
Not a problem.
I'm also going to chime in and say Thunderous Wrath isn't worth it. The absolute worst thing that can happen with it is you draw it on T1 with no lands in play or after you've paid some colorless to Mana Leak or that Fish that counters unless you pay 1 to get a Rift Bolt through on upkeep. You really need some card selection effects to be able to play it.