It’s been awhile since I’ve been on the mtgsalvation forum and in that time there are a bunch of new people here. Allow me to introduce myself for those that don’t know me. I’m dsmonsta. I’ve been playing Magic on and off since the dark days of 4th edition when cards were either broken beyond belief or gimped by modern standards but didn’t play beyond kitchen table until the summer of 2015 or grixis summer as it’s lovingly referred to. This was a time when eldrazi were a punchline and splinter twin made up over ten percent of the meta. DNT has been my go to deck and modern my go to format since then. I’m a player and deckbuilder of unimpressive skill but I can craft a manabase like no one’s business. For what it’s worth I primarily play white/green or straight white. These are my areas of expertise although I’m familiar with the rest of the deck.
I wrote the original DNT manabase primer in April of 2016 and I think it still is useful but the format is much changed since then and my own views have matured as well. The original post can be found here for reference. It is based in large part on Frank Karsten’s superb article regarding manabase construction which is available here and the birds of paradise mana failure table which can be found here . READ THESE! It should be noted that Karsten’s math is more complex than the raw tables and includes a hand selection bias in the math and the tables appear to be more restrictive. This is for good reason. The raw tables are just that, raw.
In general, I like to define the threshold of success of any uncertain task that I set out on before I set out on it in order to temper my own expectations and root them in reality. This prevents me from throwing the towel prematurely if things go rougher than expected or declaring victory when it’s unearned.
1. Reliably casting our spells on the curve.
This is the most important thing that we need mana for and lands are our mana producers. Yes, we have aether vial and green splashes would be remiss to not play a set of noble hierarch but most of our spells will be cast with mana produced by lands. This does not necessarily mean that we need to hit every land drop but we depend on advancing to the middle and late portion of the games while our opponents resources are tied up and they are unable to progress a board state beyond the early game. This is more important now than ever before with a plethora of unfair and quasi-fair decks making up tier one.
2. Provide land destruction
DNT is one of the only decks in format that plays four or more lands that have a primary use that is not producing mana or getting lands that produce mana. Let us start with the obvious. Every iteration of this deck plays four ghost quarters. This is a hard and fast rule. The number of Thalias and arbiters played is flexible but ghost quarter is a four of automatically. Sadly WOTC says we have to play by the same rules as everyone else and four is the limit. Many DNT variants will run tectonic edges supplementally. This is a cornerstone of the deck.
3. Provide additional utility
Nobody likes topdecking a land when the board state is stalled and a land that just taps for mana that you already have nothing to do with is even worse. This is why we run utility lands and it’s fairly unique in format to run more than one or two of these utility lands. These range from man lands that put power on the board, dodge sweepers and can’t be countered to card draw or even stranger. We must eke every benefit possible out of our lands due to the fact we run very few non-creature spells.
This question is almost always asked regarding noble hierarch and for good reason. A first turn hierarch that survives to make mana can enable some tremendously mean plays that shift the percentage for wins in our favor. My favorite is turn two arbiter and ghost quarter but aven mindcensor and Thalia, heretic cathar are very strong as well.
To answer the question though we must know what turn we want to cast these spells on. Consulting Karsten’s tables we see that the answer for the first turn noble hierarch is 14 untapped green sources which is simple enough. Do we really need to cast hierarch on turn one though? It enables strong plays and all but is much less likely to survive until turn two than an aether vial. Every time both are in my opener I have trouble deciding which to play.
On the other hand let us say that we want to be able to cast a card that costs 1W on turn two. The same table says 13 lands are necessary for that to happen with reliability. Lately, I’ve been running a greedier manabases than previously to squeeze every bit of utility out of my cards and have the best top decks possible.
Twenty three. Probably. This has been the popular answer for much of the history of this deck in the modern format and for good reason. We sacrifice our own lands all the time and still need to draw them as vial won’t be seen in nearly half of our games.
The main exception to playing 23 lands is that green splashes have access to noble hierarch which is awesome. This is very well supported in results and 22 is the default answer for green splashses but is not by any means authoritative. I’ve personally run 23 lands in green splashes to use a set of stirring wildwood but that was before fatal push was around and I won’t be doing that at the moment. Some claim that ramp sources let us run a lower land count as they produce more mana. My response is that we still need to draw them and 22 is lower than the 26 draws that can power a green splash while only actually playing 22 lands.
Fetchlands are a staple of every format where they’re legal and for good reason. They provide outstanding reliability in manabase construction as well as deck thinning for a negligible cost in life. Any three color and most two color decks will play at least a set with up to 10 being average. We prey on this with leonin arbiter and aven mindcensor to at least steal tempo and force removal and at most lock opponents out of the game.
We can run fetchlands too and play around our own arbiter. The spider knows what part of the web is sticky. The advanatage of this aside from mana fixing is that we can turn on revolt for renegade rallier and fatal push, take advantage of deck thinning (it’s overrated by most but over the course of a few days it will matter and something is better than nothing) and fetch basics to nullify a blood moon type effect. The disadvantages are that eventually you will get caught by your own arbiter and hatebears/dnt makes up ~5% of the metagame as of this writing so it is not something to be embarked upon lightly. Have a good reason to play fetches if you choose to.
Four. Almost always and no; you won’t auto-lose to burn. You’ll give up a few percentage points against burn and decks of it’s ilk which make up ~7% of the meta as of this writing but improve your chances with almost everything else and besides, we have a solid match against burn already.
Yes. Horizon canopy is expensive (as of this writing SCG is sold out at $100) and the second line of text may as well read “1, tap, sac: draw another land.” but that’s one card closer to what will win you the game and you need a compelling reason to not run four. Here are some good reasons: “I can’t afford them.” “I’m playing a splash that isn’t green.” “My meta is nothing but burn.”
Please note that this is my opinion and it’s a fairly contentious one even among those that have contributed a great amount to this thread and also the development of the deck. I will point out that every pro player that has top eighted a GP with this deck has played a set of canopys though.
The short answer to this question is that you should be able to cast every card in your deck off of nothing but your basic lands. Blood moon exists and shouldn’t be discounted but the primary reason why we run basics is so that we don’t make our opponent’s ghost quarters and path to exiles better. This is a concern as they are the number one and two most commonly played cards in format as of this writing. We also use our own cards for emergency mana fixing. White/green tends to have a greedier (in terms of basics) manabase and I have been known to play two forests and one plains rather than two plains. This is compromise for casting noble hierarch reliably on the first turn.
I like to have half my lands have some other ability besides making mana as this contributes to a higher percentage of live draws when the board is stalemated or we’re behind. This will typically be 4 ghost quarters, 4 horizon canopys, 2 manlands and 1-2 other lands.
Since fatal push emerged on the scene and the meta included more and more ghost quarters I’ve had less and less luck with manlands (looking in your direction stirring wildwood) which had previously been real winners. This is in part due to the fact that spending 1GW to activate it and having it die to one mana worth of tempo in either case is bad trade when previously it survived lightning bolt and abrupt decay; the two best removal spells in format. For this reason I don’t encourage the wholesale use of more than a couple manlands unless they’re low investment types like mutavault that opponents will be less likely to spend removal on and it’s not a huge tempo loss if they do.
The Innistrad cycle utility lands are by and large great. [card[Gavony township[/card] is widely used and for very good reason as it can put a tremendous amount of power on the board. Less utilized lands are moorland haunt and slayer’s stronghold. I’d like to think that this is due to blue and red being less popular splashes. Last but not least is {card]vault of the archangel[/card] which has a tremendous amount of potential but is infrequently played due to WB eldrazi and taxes having a ridiculously tight manabase already.
The Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation cycle of desert lands are something that I think has great potential. Thread contributors and streamers extroardinare Deathandcatmix and Spiderspace have both used shefet dunes to good result on stream and I use them in Wc eldrazi and taxes but the one that I believe has the most potential is scavenger grounds as it allows non-green decks to pack graveyard hate in the main deck. Furthermore this happens at time when grave hate, especially fast and reasonably costed graveyard hate is very important in the meta. I think hashep oasis has playability. This is primarily due to the fact that it can giant growth a mirran crusader for tremendous offensive potential. Lastly, ifnir deadlands seems useable as it provides removal that is land based.
Here are some sample manabases. Each is on the conservative side.
Hey gang. The manabase primer is pretty dated and I'm going to be writing a new one. Are there specific issues that anyone wants to see addressed? Also, does anyone have access to hypergeometric distribution charts besides the old bopmtg ones?
@Kayjay1991, gw is generally the fastest and most aggressive version of dnt. It also has the strongest manabase and best top decks. This is countered by it being the least interactive version of the deck and is least likely to be able to support eldrazi. Due to it being light on colorless in comparison.
Congrats on the promotion to tier one everybody! I never thought I'd see the day.
The deck looks fine. The only changes I'd consider are mutavalts instead of temples or thought-knot seers instead of restos. It's by and large an either or thing.
The sideboard could be ok depending on the meta. Ask yourself what you'll be bringing in in a given match. If it's only two or three cards then you won't likely have a solid match against that deck.
@Laughingpeluso, vial comes out in games where threat density is critical and artifact hate is in the main or sideboard. Jund and junk are great examples of these types of matches. Noble hierarch can be safely sided out in long games where super efficient removal like electrolyze, izzet staticasters and sweepers will be in play. The quick mana acceleration is unlikely to be impactful in these games.
Fwiw, these are my opinions and by no means the conventional wisdom of the hive mind. Others would suggest not siding out vial against jund citing that it allows flickerwisp to be played at instant speed. Your mileage may vary.
@Xaricore, stonecloaker has long been a marginal card in this deck because it can't stick to the battlefield by itself and opens you up to blowouts of tempo loss. It's only good in a meta that is low on removal which modern is unlikely to be at any point in the foreseeable future. This isn't to say that stonecloaker is unplayable in the right deck in a certain meta but it will never be a four of.
Smugglers copter is excellent because it is both a means of card selection and an elusive clock that gives our creatures pseudo-haste. The card selection aspect is something that is very welcome in this deck. Mana flood is something that we struggle with. Two (or three) mana isn't too much to ask. Fwiw, selfless spirit is pretty good too.
@Poohbearoverlord, dnt/hatebears is a meta deck first and foremost. Outside of the core deck, everything is a flex spot that must address your meta. The good news is that dnt has a solid game against all those decks other than merfolk; which can be rough but not unwinnable. What is good against one deck is not terribly good against others. Vryn wingmare is great against ad nauseum but lousy against merfolk as an example.
Straight white is the starting point for the deck where you'll learn the complex interactions of this deck and how to leverage those interactions against the opponent to disrupt their strategy. My best advice is to read the primer and start reading this thread. Catmix has some videos that are geared toward beginners as well.
@stainthemind, I generally think that arbiter should be either one of the best cards in the match or sided out. I never find it to be just ok unless my board is fully unprepared for a match. Mana denial is a losing strategy against dredge as they do their fetching early in the game, have a good chance of drawing a mana producer and play life from the loam.
I did a little testing with this list since I don't have thought-knot seers online. Here are my impressions
-Order of whiteclay is good. It's great to have another avenue for instant speed flickerwisps and is great in grindy matchups. As Charonsobol pointed out, scooze feels bad, man.
-Copter is awesome. It's a great way to dig for sideboard cards and make late game bears pull some weight.
-The tourney practice meta is poisonous for the purpose of tourney practice. Soooo much jank.
-Eldrazi displacer is way better than I remember but as I recall it was just a way to lose two mana worth of tempo to a bolt.
-Holdout settlement is good in and of itself. I only put it in the deck as a way to support order of whiteclay but the colorless/color fixing is very decent.
-The mtgo shuffler is far, far worse than I remember and it was pretty bad then. Wotc must have a team dedicated to making it worse every day. The number of normalish hands was dwarfed by the no or all land hands.
Nope. It was my first thought after reading your copter post around an hour or so ago. I'm not going to be able to test in paper until Monday at the earliest. Might be able to test on mtgo. Wc list is fixed.
Any thoughts on order of whiteclay as a copter crew? Seems like it'd be a great value engine. Crew->loot->reanimate-> profit!
Eta: Here's a very preliminary deck list. It in the best catmix fashion uses colorless as the second color and has a black microsplash. Splicer pilots copter and blocks off the ground with golems. Order is your value engine and a heck of a blocker. Should be super resilient to removal.
Eta 2: formatting doesn't like me tonight. Bonus GW list.
@Lapahn, below is a video of Ari Lax playing wg taxes. The most important thing to take away from it is that there are no hard and fast rules about sequencing and even players of an extreme high skill level like Lax will make mistakes with this deck so you shouldn't take your own as more than a learning experience. Fwiw, the video is over a year old and the meta is vastly different. Take from it what you will.
StarCityGames.com - Video: G/W Hate Bears In Modern
It’s been awhile since I’ve been on the mtgsalvation forum and in that time there are a bunch of new people here. Allow me to introduce myself for those that don’t know me. I’m dsmonsta. I’ve been playing Magic on and off since the dark days of 4th edition when cards were either broken beyond belief or gimped by modern standards but didn’t play beyond kitchen table until the summer of 2015 or grixis summer as it’s lovingly referred to. This was a time when eldrazi were a punchline and splinter twin made up over ten percent of the meta. DNT has been my go to deck and modern my go to format since then. I’m a player and deckbuilder of unimpressive skill but I can craft a manabase like no one’s business. For what it’s worth I primarily play white/green or straight white. These are my areas of expertise although I’m familiar with the rest of the deck.
I wrote the original DNT manabase primer in April of 2016 and I think it still is useful but the format is much changed since then and my own views have matured as well. The original post can be found here for reference. It is based in large part on Frank Karsten’s superb article regarding manabase construction which is available here and the birds of paradise mana failure table which can be found here . READ THESE! It should be noted that Karsten’s math is more complex than the raw tables and includes a hand selection bias in the math and the tables appear to be more restrictive. This is for good reason. The raw tables are just that, raw.
In general, I like to define the threshold of success of any uncertain task that I set out on before I set out on it in order to temper my own expectations and root them in reality. This prevents me from throwing the towel prematurely if things go rougher than expected or declaring victory when it’s unearned.
1. Reliably casting our spells on the curve.
This is the most important thing that we need mana for and lands are our mana producers. Yes, we have aether vial and green splashes would be remiss to not play a set of noble hierarch but most of our spells will be cast with mana produced by lands. This does not necessarily mean that we need to hit every land drop but we depend on advancing to the middle and late portion of the games while our opponents resources are tied up and they are unable to progress a board state beyond the early game. This is more important now than ever before with a plethora of unfair and quasi-fair decks making up tier one.
2. Provide land destruction
DNT is one of the only decks in format that plays four or more lands that have a primary use that is not producing mana or getting lands that produce mana. Let us start with the obvious. Every iteration of this deck plays four ghost quarters. This is a hard and fast rule. The number of Thalias and arbiters played is flexible but ghost quarter is a four of automatically. Sadly WOTC says we have to play by the same rules as everyone else and four is the limit. Many DNT variants will run tectonic edges supplementally. This is a cornerstone of the deck.
3. Provide additional utility
Nobody likes topdecking a land when the board state is stalled and a land that just taps for mana that you already have nothing to do with is even worse. This is why we run utility lands and it’s fairly unique in format to run more than one or two of these utility lands. These range from man lands that put power on the board, dodge sweepers and can’t be countered to card draw or even stranger. We must eke every benefit possible out of our lands due to the fact we run very few non-creature spells.
This question is almost always asked regarding noble hierarch and for good reason. A first turn hierarch that survives to make mana can enable some tremendously mean plays that shift the percentage for wins in our favor. My favorite is turn two arbiter and ghost quarter but aven mindcensor and Thalia, heretic cathar are very strong as well.
To answer the question though we must know what turn we want to cast these spells on. Consulting Karsten’s tables we see that the answer for the first turn noble hierarch is 14 untapped green sources which is simple enough. Do we really need to cast hierarch on turn one though? It enables strong plays and all but is much less likely to survive until turn two than an aether vial. Every time both are in my opener I have trouble deciding which to play.
On the other hand let us say that we want to be able to cast a card that costs 1W on turn two. The same table says 13 lands are necessary for that to happen with reliability. Lately, I’ve been running a greedier manabases than previously to squeeze every bit of utility out of my cards and have the best top decks possible.
Twenty three. Probably. This has been the popular answer for much of the history of this deck in the modern format and for good reason. We sacrifice our own lands all the time and still need to draw them as vial won’t be seen in nearly half of our games.
The main exception to playing 23 lands is that green splashes have access to noble hierarch which is awesome. This is very well supported in results and 22 is the default answer for green splashses but is not by any means authoritative. I’ve personally run 23 lands in green splashes to use a set of stirring wildwood but that was before fatal push was around and I won’t be doing that at the moment. Some claim that ramp sources let us run a lower land count as they produce more mana. My response is that we still need to draw them and 22 is lower than the 26 draws that can power a green splash while only actually playing 22 lands.
Fetchlands are a staple of every format where they’re legal and for good reason. They provide outstanding reliability in manabase construction as well as deck thinning for a negligible cost in life. Any three color and most two color decks will play at least a set with up to 10 being average. We prey on this with leonin arbiter and aven mindcensor to at least steal tempo and force removal and at most lock opponents out of the game.
We can run fetchlands too and play around our own arbiter. The spider knows what part of the web is sticky. The advanatage of this aside from mana fixing is that we can turn on revolt for renegade rallier and fatal push, take advantage of deck thinning (it’s overrated by most but over the course of a few days it will matter and something is better than nothing) and fetch basics to nullify a blood moon type effect. The disadvantages are that eventually you will get caught by your own arbiter and hatebears/dnt makes up ~5% of the metagame as of this writing so it is not something to be embarked upon lightly. Have a good reason to play fetches if you choose to.
Four. Almost always and no; you won’t auto-lose to burn. You’ll give up a few percentage points against burn and decks of it’s ilk which make up ~7% of the meta as of this writing but improve your chances with almost everything else and besides, we have a solid match against burn already.
Yes. Horizon canopy is expensive (as of this writing SCG is sold out at $100) and the second line of text may as well read “1, tap, sac: draw another land.” but that’s one card closer to what will win you the game and you need a compelling reason to not run four. Here are some good reasons: “I can’t afford them.” “I’m playing a splash that isn’t green.” “My meta is nothing but burn.”
Please note that this is my opinion and it’s a fairly contentious one even among those that have contributed a great amount to this thread and also the development of the deck. I will point out that every pro player that has top eighted a GP with this deck has played a set of canopys though.
Since fatal push emerged on the scene and the meta included more and more ghost quarters I’ve had less and less luck with manlands (looking in your direction stirring wildwood) which had previously been real winners. This is in part due to the fact that spending 1GW to activate it and having it die to one mana worth of tempo in either case is bad trade when previously it survived lightning bolt and abrupt decay; the two best removal spells in format. For this reason I don’t encourage the wholesale use of more than a couple manlands unless they’re low investment types like mutavault that opponents will be less likely to spend removal on and it’s not a huge tempo loss if they do.
The Innistrad cycle utility lands are by and large great. [card[Gavony township[/card] is widely used and for very good reason as it can put a tremendous amount of power on the board. Less utilized lands are moorland haunt and slayer’s stronghold. I’d like to think that this is due to blue and red being less popular splashes. Last but not least is {card]vault of the archangel[/card] which has a tremendous amount of potential but is infrequently played due to WB eldrazi and taxes having a ridiculously tight manabase already.
The Amonkhet and Hour of Devastation cycle of desert lands are something that I think has great potential. Thread contributors and streamers extroardinare Deathandcatmix and Spiderspace have both used shefet dunes to good result on stream and I use them in Wc eldrazi and taxes but the one that I believe has the most potential is scavenger grounds as it allows non-green decks to pack graveyard hate in the main deck. Furthermore this happens at time when grave hate, especially fast and reasonably costed graveyard hate is very important in the meta. I think hashep oasis has playability. This is primarily due to the fact that it can giant growth a mirran crusader for tremendous offensive potential. Lastly, ifnir deadlands seems useable as it provides removal that is land based.
Here are some sample manabases. Each is on the conservative side.
Are there any questions that you'd like to see addressed? So far the only one I've gotten was the inclusion of deserts which I'll be happy to oblige.
Congrats on the promotion to tier one everybody! I never thought I'd see the day.
The sideboard could be ok depending on the meta. Ask yourself what you'll be bringing in in a given match. If it's only two or three cards then you won't likely have a solid match against that deck.
I haven't played this yet due to my meta but it seems very cool.
@pathrogas, have you considered streaming as a way to promote this?
Best of luck.
Fwiw, these are my opinions and by no means the conventional wisdom of the hive mind. Others would suggest not siding out vial against jund citing that it allows flickerwisp to be played at instant speed. Your mileage may vary.
Smugglers copter is excellent because it is both a means of card selection and an elusive clock that gives our creatures pseudo-haste. The card selection aspect is something that is very welcome in this deck. Mana flood is something that we struggle with. Two (or three) mana isn't too much to ask. Fwiw, selfless spirit is pretty good too.
Straight white is the starting point for the deck where you'll learn the complex interactions of this deck and how to leverage those interactions against the opponent to disrupt their strategy. My best advice is to read the primer and start reading this thread. Catmix has some videos that are geared toward beginners as well.
-Order of whiteclay is good. It's great to have another avenue for instant speed flickerwisps and is great in grindy matchups. As Charonsobol pointed out, scooze feels bad, man.
-Copter is awesome. It's a great way to dig for sideboard cards and make late game bears pull some weight.
-The tourney practice meta is poisonous for the purpose of tourney practice. Soooo much jank.
-Eldrazi displacer is way better than I remember but as I recall it was just a way to lose two mana worth of tempo to a bolt.
-Holdout settlement is good in and of itself. I only put it in the deck as a way to support order of whiteclay but the colorless/color fixing is very decent.
-The mtgo shuffler is far, far worse than I remember and it was pretty bad then. Wotc must have a team dedicated to making it worse every day. The number of normalish hands was dwarfed by the no or all land hands.
Eta: Here's a very preliminary deck list. It in the best catmix fashion uses colorless as the second color and has a black microsplash. Splicer pilots copter and blocks off the ground with golems. Order is your value engine and a heck of a blocker. Should be super resilient to removal.
Eta 2: formatting doesn't like me tonight. Bonus GW list.
GW copter taxes
Wc copter taxes
StarCityGames.com - Video: G/W Hate Bears In Modern
https://starcitygames.com/article/32177_Video--G-W-Hate-Bears-In-Modern.html