3-1.
And btw, 1/3 reaches do block skyfishers.
By the 4th turn when they play a bladetusk boar, my deck has played some random green early drops while your deck has just played a crypt ripper...who is ahead in the race?
My primal bellows can pump a creature to block geopede, my jorga bard can and my river boa can. But most of the time I was just racing awyways (bellow 4 to the face ftw) and I think that my deck races better than your deck. Zendikar is all about racing...
Turn 1 Oran Rief, the Vastwood
Turn 2 Kahlini
Turn 3 Kahlini, land
Turn 4 land, Recluse as a 2/4
Turn 5 Gladehart and Scute Mob, land (+2 life) end of my turn pop one exp. (+6 life)
Turn 6 Baloth Woodcrasher
Turn 7 Land, pop exp. (+12 life). Attack with a 10/10 and a 17/17 trampler.
It is those cards that you compare Umara Raptor to - the only interactions we care about are either the Raptor winning you the game, or another card killing the raptor.
But isn't there so much more than that? Can't Umara Raptor just play D on an opposing Jorga Bard because you need to draw a land? And can't the Raptor block a Sphinx of Lost Truths and then get pumped by a Vines of Vastwood to kill the Sphinx? Shouldn't both of those situations (and I assume many more) go into the "threat index"? A card is not solely based on winning the game or being killed...
I dunno. Your deck seems like it could get beaten easily by any kind of curve from the opponent. Is there any creature that you could block with before turn 5? There definitely are blockers, but you don't really want to be blocking with them. Umara Raptor, Welkin Tern, Blood Seeker, Grul Draz Vampire, Heart Stabber Mosquito. And the green deck has a similar amount of "bombs." In most games, I don't think that a Baloth Woodcrasher or a Vastwood Gorger will be much worse than Ob.
The recluses aren't even that bad at the 3 drop. They block EVERYTHING. Most ground guys and almost all early fliers.
I like the green deck more because it has an better early curve that can trade with ground guys and kill the opposing player with fliers or one of 4 bombs.
Hmmmm. Although I wish this was possible, I don't think that it is feasible without writing some crazy computer code.
The problem with your Divination situation is that Divination changes in value for each different board state. There are essentially infinite different situations for the value of the Divination that depend on:
1) Opponent's Deck (which changes every time)
2) Your Deck (which also changes every draft)
3) Game state of both players (Cards in hand, creatures on the board, cards in graveyard that may interact with cards in your deck or in play, and more abstract concepts like "Who is the beatdown when you play Divination?")
And let us say that you can map EVERY situation that could occur in m10 draft. How do you decide what exactly Divination does in each situation? And how can you find out the probability of each situation happening in a draft?
These questions seem impossible to answer.
You have two options:
1) Try to do it simply like you are trying to do by showing really simple game states that will never translate over to real life. (Combo in draft?)
2) Get a ton of smart people together and make a sweet program that finds a bunch of cool and helpful statistics for each new draft set. (Sealed? I think that would be easier...)
Sol Ring is waaay too powerful. A modern day equivalent would be:
1
Artifact
T: Add 1 to your mana pool.
or
1
Artifact
~ comes into play tapped.
T: Add 1 to your mana pool.
I think Wizards would be more likely to print the 2nd version. I bet that someone has created this card before, I just wanted to bring up discussion on it again.
All that binger is saying (I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) is that in this format, more than others, multi-colored early drops are tougher to play on the turn that they are supposed to be played (Rip-Clan Crasher on turn 2 for example) because of the large amount of fixing that takes up your early turns (Amilliary Sphere, all the panoramas, rupture spire to name a few commons off the top of my head). In Time Spiral for example, it was quite easy to play Ghostflame Sliver on turn two because in that block, you generally only made two color decks either without manafixing or with mana fixing that didn't take up your 2nd turn (Terramephoric Expanse, Chromatic Star).
Oh, and it's rare to find a "purely" aggressive deck in the format. According to your logic, no creature that is aggressively costed should make a deck. Ever. Nice logic there. I'll start passing on every 3-drop and below I see.
I've had a lot of success so far with my two-color white beatdown decks in Shards / Shards / Conflux, and I'll certainly be keeping my eyes peeled for any opportunity to draft this type of deck at the Pro Tour.
And binger wasn't really saying that you should never draft 2 drops. You completely twisted and exaggerated his point. He is saying that in an aggressive deck, you might pick "turn intensive" mana fixing up later because it greatly disrupts your early game.
1UU
Enchantment (C)
Sacrifice Enchancel: Counter target spell
Could this cost UU?
Is this better or worse than Cancel?
And btw, 1/3 reaches do block skyfishers.
By the 4th turn when they play a bladetusk boar, my deck has played some random green early drops while your deck has just played a crypt ripper...who is ahead in the race?
My primal bellows can pump a creature to block geopede, my jorga bard can and my river boa can. But most of the time I was just racing awyways (bellow 4 to the face ftw) and I think that my deck races better than your deck. Zendikar is all about racing...
Wow I got owned this game:
Turn 1 Oran Rief, the Vastwood
Turn 2 Kahlini
Turn 3 Kahlini, land
Turn 4 land, Recluse as a 2/4
Turn 5 Gladehart and Scute Mob, land (+2 life) end of my turn pop one exp. (+6 life)
Turn 6 Baloth Woodcrasher
Turn 7 Land, pop exp. (+12 life). Attack with a 10/10 and a 17/17 trampler.
and they say green isnt good...
But isn't there so much more than that? Can't Umara Raptor just play D on an opposing Jorga Bard because you need to draw a land? And can't the Raptor block a Sphinx of Lost Truths and then get pumped by a Vines of Vastwood to kill the Sphinx? Shouldn't both of those situations (and I assume many more) go into the "threat index"? A card is not solely based on winning the game or being killed...
The recluses aren't even that bad at the 3 drop. They block EVERYTHING. Most ground guys and almost all early fliers.
I like the green deck more because it has an better early curve that can trade with ground guys and kill the opposing player with fliers or one of 4 bombs.
Did I build this pool right? Black was very tempting, but in the end, I went with the more consistent Green.
Also, would you rather play Explorer's Scope or Reckless Scholar in this deck?
Thank!
The problem with your Divination situation is that Divination changes in value for each different board state. There are essentially infinite different situations for the value of the Divination that depend on:
1) Opponent's Deck (which changes every time)
2) Your Deck (which also changes every draft)
3) Game state of both players (Cards in hand, creatures on the board, cards in graveyard that may interact with cards in your deck or in play, and more abstract concepts like "Who is the beatdown when you play Divination?")
And let us say that you can map EVERY situation that could occur in m10 draft. How do you decide what exactly Divination does in each situation? And how can you find out the probability of each situation happening in a draft?
These questions seem impossible to answer.
You have two options:
1) Try to do it simply like you are trying to do by showing really simple game states that will never translate over to real life. (Combo in draft?)
2) Get a ton of smart people together and make a sweet program that finds a bunch of cool and helpful statistics for each new draft set. (Sealed? I think that would be easier...)
Hideous End vs. Journey to Nowhere
Burst Lightning vs. Shepard of the Lost
Journey to Nowhere vs. Shepard of the Lost
Grazing Gladehart vs. Welkin Tern (pretty bad pack)
Bladetusk Boar vs. Welkin Tern (bad part duex)
My Picks:
Burst Lightning
Shepard of the Lost
Grazing Gladehart
Welkin Tern
p1p1 Halo Hunter vs. Marsh Casualties
p1p1
Halo Hunter vs. Grazing Gladehart
p1p1
Living Tsunami vs. Rite of Replication
1
Artifact
T: Add 1 to your mana pool.
or
1
Artifact
~ comes into play tapped.
T: Add 1 to your mana pool.
I think Wizards would be more likely to print the 2nd version. I bet that someone has created this card before, I just wanted to bring up discussion on it again.
G/W and W/U decks are seen often in this format. In fact, they are one of Steve Sadin's favorite archetypes to draft. http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/li/27And binger wasn't really saying that you should never draft 2 drops. You completely twisted and exaggerated his point. He is saying that in an aggressive deck, you might pick "turn intensive" mana fixing up later because it greatly disrupts your early game.
Agony Warp vs. Drumhunter?