1st match 2-0 UB Fairies: He couldn't play bitterblossom on both games so ballista pretty much 2 for 1 every game into recursion chalice on 2 is pretty damn strong against them.
2nd match 2-0 Lantern: This matchup is very easy, he had thopter foundry + sword of the meek but chalice on 1 is gg + sideboard pithing needle and hurkyl's recall.
3rd match 2-0 Mardu pyro: We have a pretty good matchup chalice on 1 and counter pyro or reveler, ballista always makes a 2 for 1 at least.
4th match 1-2 Grixis Deathshadow: first game pretty straightforward chalice on 1 gg, second match I don't survive to discard and gurmag me to win. third game mull to 5 goodbye.
5th match 2-1 GWB Elves: I stole this match, turn 4 tron into ugin and on game 3 turn 5 tron into o stone, then ugin.
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By the way, I'm also inclined to test Pteramander in the Tarmogoyf slot. The flying clause is huge, and instead of conflicting with Mandrills it needs the same work we already do to grow Nimble. Maybe it's too cute, but I'll definitely try it.
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4x Polluted Delta
4x Bloodstained Mire
2x Scalding Tarn
2x Watery Grave
2x Blood Crypt
1x Steam Vents
1x Swamp
1x Island
Creatures (13)
4x Street Wraith
4x Death's Shadow
3x Gurmag Angler
2x Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4x Thought Scour
3x Mishra's Bauble
2x Faithless Looting
Permission (11)
4x Stubborn Denial
4x Thoughtseize
3x Inquisition of Kozilek
Removals (8)
4x Fatal Push
2x Lightning Bolt
2x Terminate
Others (2)
2x Temur Battle Rage
2x Ceremonious Rejection
2x Disdainful Stroke
2x Collective Brutality
3x Nihil Spellbomb
2x Abrade
1x Kolaghan's Command
3x Young Pyromancer
Let's analyze it.
1) No Snapcaster Mage? You crazy, bro?
The more we go in a Tempo direction, the less Snapcaster Mage appeals to me. For a certain period I was even playing the fifth (Jace, Vryn's Prodigy) maindeck. That was the time we durdled, with multiple Kommands in the maindeck. That time is over. I often found myself with dead Snappies in hand, casting them on turn two just for the purpose of having another body on the field. They are a great engine, don't get me wrong. But we are a deck which lives on one cc spells. Snapcaster, to have at least a marginal utility, needs to be cast as a three cc spell. An enormity.
2) This is a Jund list without green.
Yes, it is. I'm actually playing Traverse Shadow without green. Fact is, Traverse is such a bad magic card. I played my fair share of Jund Shadow, Sultai Shadow and 4C Shadow. Half the time I would have preferred a cantrip instead of it. Some other times is rendered useless by opponent's grave hate. Some other times drawing into threats instead of... anything else is actually a liability. Other than that, while Tarmogoyf is a very resilient creature, the ability of casting delve treaths for just one mana has made a HUGE difference, in my testing process. Simply put:
a) Scour > Traverse
b) Grixis Mana > 4C Mana (and Stubborn Denial > playing without Stubborn Denial)
c) Tarmogoyf == Gurmag Angler + Tasigur
I DO want, from the Traverse approach, the high number of cc1 plays (7 discard spells + 4 Stubb, other than all the cantrips!) plus the ability to deploy an early threat (so, one more Delve creature to find, and the set 4 Scours + 2 Looting in order to cast them with consistency).
3) What about the sideboard?
This deck can't play the value game in the traditional fashion. You basically operate on 2-4 lands for the whole match (and Looting is actually crazy good at discarding excess mana), so I'm avoid the "planeswalker trap". Young Peezy is important, though, against most grindy match-ups such as Control and BGx (other than acting as an additional threat versus certain typologies of combo decks). You can deploy it on the field on turn two, most of the time, cause it will exacerbate the opponent's removal before they can eat your "real" threats. I do like Spellbomb more than Surgical at the moment, and I would play Leyline as alternative in this list.
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The tournament.
Swiss.
Round1// G-Tron 2-0
Round2// G-Tron 2-1
Round3// URw Phoenix 2-0
Round4// Abzan Company 2-0
Round5// Humans I.D.
Quarter// GB Rock 2-1
Semi// Spirits 2-1
Final// Amulet Titan 2-0
I close unbeaten. Very satisfatory result. Humans is probably the worst preboard matchup you can face, when playing with four Stubbs. Four Stubbs were an all-star the whole day, though, against the other archetypes. My sideboard is well tuned for Tron, which I consider a slightly positive match-up, and in testing I absolutely wrecked Phoenix and any kind of Combo deck. GB Rock is nowhere near to Jund's grindy level (though I would much likely play Rock in this meta, and that's good for us) and we can actually overrun them pretty easily unless they have nutdraws, thanks to the low-lands count. I fear more HS Affinity (again, the side is decently tuned for it) and Humans + hard Control.
I do think this should be the future for the archetype, at least in the incoming months.
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I would definitely play some amount of Unmoored Ego and three Field of Ruin maindeck, if I were to give Esper another try.
Something like:
4x Flooded Strand
4x Polluted Delta
3x Celestial Colonnade
3x Field of Ruin
1x Glacial Fortress
4x Island
2x Plains
1x Swamp
2x Hallowed Fountain
2x Watery Grave
3x Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
3x Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Creatures (3)
3x Snapcaster Mage
Other Spells (25)
4x Path to Exile
3x Fatal Push
2x Supreme Verdict
2x Settle the Wreckage
4x Opt
2x Negate
2x Logic Knot
4x Cryptic Command
2x Unmoored Ego
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Pteramander and Tarmogoyf DON'T conflict with each other. It's a thing, yes, don't pretend it isn't. The argument for Fatal Push is also kinda farfetched. All of your other creatures die from it anyway. They are going to find a target for Push, in a way or another. That said, Push isn't superpopular right now. Most decks are running Bolt (Hollow One, UR Phoenix, Jeskai Control...) or different kinds of removals (Walking Ballista, Oblivion Stone, Ugin...). Or directly Path, which hits anything from our maindeck. Flying is, also, usually better compared to trample, which is a plus for Pteramander. When was the last time you faced Lingering Souls in the format?
I would suggest you guys to try this configuration before dismissing it. Mandrills RUG wasn't a good option for the meta. We can talk about this or that, the truth doesn't change. What we can change, though, is the velocity of the deck. Which matters, to say the least, in the current Modern.
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I took a 5-6 months break from MTG and I'm (partially) back. I noticed that all of my posts went deleted (dunno why), hope most of you still remember me and my schizoid lists. I'm not yet in the game, once again, because I managed to find a good balance in my life and Time is a harsh component of it. But, every now and then, I will take a short break and come here to discuss about our favourite game.
What I wanted to say.
If people still remember me, you should be aware of this: I was the first huge proponent of maindecks high on Dismember, Ballista and no Chalices. I do think I was right, and my previous win ratio confirmed it (last time I played, half a year ago, I had a 71% win rate overall). When I was back, though, I noticed the metagame changed quite a bit. There are Phoenixes everywhere, Dredge is a thing again, Burn percentage increased, Grixis Shadow had a comeback. Chalices in this metagame is HUGE. Walking Ballista, which I adore, became a huge "spend here your excess mana" from the "play it and devastate opponent's little creatures" it was in the past. When Affinity was Affinity instead of Hardened Scales and Elves were rampant, I had them in the deck even if they were "bad" against anything else, because Ballistas were winning those two games by themselves. Now, I find them pretty much underwhelming. Not "bad", just "a spot that could be something more impactful". Same goes for Dismember. It's - finally - the time for me to switch to Spatial Contortion. With Burn, Phoenixes & Hardened Scales running rampant, I feel like it's the correct choice. That said, I'm still unsure about this last point. I yet have to make real tests, putting aside one small tournament.
What did I try.
1x Academy Ruins
1x Field of Ruin
1x Ghost Quarter
7x Island
2x River of Tears
4x Urza's Mine
4x Urza's Power Plant
4x Urza's Tower
3x Chalice of the Void
4x Expedition Map
2x Mindslaver
1x Oblivion Stone
3x Wurmcoil Engine
Instant (19)
4x Condescend
4x Remand
1x Cyclonic Rift
3x Spatial Contortion
3x Repeal
4x Thirst for Knowledge
2x Karn, Scion of Urza
2x Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
For the first time ever, I'm willing to play baby Karn. Without Talismans, of course (you all should know what I think about them). Guess what? I'm liking the four planeswalkers configuration a lot. From the printing of Assassin's Trophy I felt like we needed to up the count of our walkers. The deck is now working way better than before when it comes to fight opponents that are eager to kill our Tron lands. Having three Wurmcoils plus 2 Karns as "linear, efficient threats" (plus the two big Ugin) makes postboard games way more playable than before. AND, it really helps a lot vs Control, cause lately (before taking a break) I had very good results against the field, but UW and Jeskai made a meatball out of me, after all the goodies WOTC printed.
How my tests went.
Last week I tried to enter a tournament with the old list. Steamrolled by Burn, Phoenix & Miracles, while winning against Humans, for the final 1-3. I took changes, and that's the result:
Round1// Jeskai Delver 2-0
Chalice of the Void really shines here. Geist was a huge problem, having less blockers than before, but Chalice#1 locks them out of half spells (even more) and I was able to chain Remand into Remand into Tron both games before ultimating Ugin.
Round2// Naya Burn 2-1
On the draw. Won game one thanks to Chalice#1 into a pair of Contortion, then I proceed to counter everything until I ultimate Ugin again. Game two he has turn three the same amount of Guides on the field. Game three I'm able to chain a pair of Remands on his Eidolon until I hardcast a Wurmcoil on turn six.
Round3// UR Phoenix 2-0
Chalice#1 won me the first game. Relic + Dismember on Thing won me the second.
Round4// BG Goodstuff 2-0
Karn actually did it in both games. We traded resources for a bit, he tried to keep me out of Tron on the first, but I end up being refuelled constantly by Karn until I hit a Slaver. In the second game he has Trophy into Fulminator into Fulminator into double Field of Ruin activation. I keep killing his stuff with Dismember and Contortion, then I slam Karn into Wurmcoil into another Wurmcoil and laugh.
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How's the deck positioned?
Can't say for sure. I tested a little bit in the last two weeks, against all the forms of Tron (Gx, Eldrazi), UR Storm, Humans, Hardened Scales, Phoenix, Burn (Mardu, Boros, Naya). It still seems to have plenty of games against those strategies (with Hardened Scales being, by far, the worse between them). Had a 45-55 ratio against G-Tron, 40-60 against HS Affinity, 55+/% against the others.
I'm thinking about fourth Chalice in the main, and I'd like to have one Commit too. Crucible in the side seems to be in a good spot, but dunno what to take out for it.
I apologize in case I forgot how to write in English, please bear with it. I hope you all can find this analysis interesting.