Quote from elconquistador1985 »Quote from TomCourtenay »Can someone provide an thorough analysis of the benefits of Skewer the Critics and Light up the Stage ? I've been around since 2014-ish with Mardu Burn, then Boros Burn (splashing green for Destructive Revelry in the sideboard). I feel what we've seen of Burn so far was very strong. At first, the new cards seem shaky and could have some upsides, but provide some downsides too (which make me reluctant to them). Thoughts guys?
In my testing with Skewer the Critics, I was able to cast it for R about 80% of the time. It's very easy for us to enable Spectacle, and that makes it another Lightning Bolt. I think it's an automatic 4-of in Burn now. Rift Bolt as a Spectacle enabler is a good sequence to play into if you can. Don't make the mistake of trying to get a Prowess trigger off of it. If you swing with Swift and connect, just fire it off so you don't get stuck with it.
I do not think that Light Up the Stage is good enough, and I think it's just the next draw card in a line of draw cards that Burn players pick up and drop in their quest to solve the "running out of gas" problem. I think that the most likely outcome with that card is a bad one. A deck is about 1/6 creatures, about 1/2 spells, and about 1/3 lands. If all creatures are live draws, then 2/3 of the deck is live. If they aren't, then 1/2 of the deck is live. The possible outcomes are:
Land-Land (probability 1/9): If I need a spell, I never consider this a good outcome and I consider it a waste of mana. If I'm 1 spell from winning, then I would have already had that spell in hand if I didn't put LUtS in my deck.
Land-Spell (probability 1/3): This amounts to a tax of R on your burn spell and you got a land to go along with it. I doubt the land is likely to be relevant, so I think this outcome is just worse than playing a burn spell.
Land-Creature (probability 1/9): If you cast LUtS late, this is likely very bad. If you draw an Eidolon late, you probably don't want it. If you draw Guide or Swift, it's probably irrelevant because they're outclassed and are just blockers.
Creature-Creature (probability 1/36): Probably not what you're after. Maybe 2 hasters is ok, but you need an empty board for it.
Creature-Spell (probability 1/6): If the creature isn't relevant, this is the same as an R tax.
Spell-Spell (probability 1/4): This is obviously good, except when you draw Rift Bolts or things that get trapped in exile due to lack of mana.
If creatures are always live draws, it's 1/9 dead-dead, 4/9 live-dead, and 4/9 live-live and that implies that 55% of the time is either dead or a tax of R on the burn spell you draw and only 45% of the time is a "good outcome". If creatures are always dead, it's 1/4 dead-dead, 1/2 live-dead, and 1/4 live-live and you're looking at 75% bad outcomes and 25% good outcomes. I think this suggests that it's not worth playing.
Imagine you need it to bail you out of a bad late game situation. If that situation is that you are light on lands, I'd question both how you're enabling Spectacle without enough lands in play and how likely it is that you're even going to win if you draw the lands now. Creatures probably are either dead or not connecting anymore later in the game, so it relies on Rift Bolt or having 2 lands in play. If you're flooding and need spells, there's only a 25% chance of double spell and I'd also question whether it's likely that double spell gets you there.
I've seen people suggest that land-land is good because "it moves them off the top". If you play LUtS and move 2 lands off the top, you've gained a slightly higher probability of drawing a spell on your next draw step because you've changed the denominator. In this sense, LUtS is worth some fraction of a spell here. Had you played a burn spell instead, that burn spell would have been worth 100% of a burn spell. I don't consider moving 2 lands off the top a uniformly positive outcome.
In addition to all of this, it's a bad top deck when you can't Spectacle. I don't think it's worth playing in Burn.
Quote from TomCourtenay »Can someone provide an thorough analysis of the benefits of Skewer the Critics and Light up the Stage ? I've been around since 2014-ish with Mardu Burn, then Boros Burn (splashing green for Destructive Revelry in the sideboard). I feel what we've seen of Burn so far was very strong. At first, the new cards seem shaky and could have some upsides, but provide some downsides too (which make me reluctant to them). Thoughts guys?
Quote from The_Real_Colonel »
But wouldn't you argue that Mutavault at the very least is one of your win-conditions? Mutavault's versatility is so strong for us against several of these meta decks. Trading a Champion for a Mutavault, setting a blocker for Lilli, Beat down? I can see why you'd drop to 3 Urborg as it can at times be cloggy, but I really believe 4 Mutavaults are very necessary.
Quote from The_Real_Colonel »
Excellent run with the deck. The deck itself looks pretty stock outside Infernal Tutor. I can see your argument to dropping down to 2 Thoughtseize, my question is why not replace the 3rd Thoughtseize with 1 Blackmail instead of the 3rd Funeral Charm? I also can see your concern with the greediness of 4 Mutavaults/4 Urborg, but don't you think that Mutavaults are very important and extra Urborgs can be pitched if need be?
Quote from pizzap »I am toying a bit now with Hollow One. I like the broken feel of casting it t1 (after Looting and cycling the Wraith). This is a WIP. I guess I should swap a Mountain for a Forest, this was simply my old mana base. In the Tournament Practise it was good, but that doesn't say so much. I will take it to a League at some point.
Quote from TorrentialBeerHulk »BBE > K-Command > Goyf + kill a dude = Not going to happen.
Quote from BrandonJames16 »Good question. For me it depends on if you're playing Smallpox which can be a great card btw, just remember to take the draw if you think you can afford it. So if you're not playing Smallpox go for 22 or so lands and def 4 Thoughtseize (always go 4 ravens crime) but if you're playing 4 Smallpox then you can afford to cut a Thoughtseize because on the draw you need more slots for removal. Also if you're going the Pox rout play four, otherwise how would you know if you want to play or draw?
Hope this helps
Quote from Arkmer »but often a hellbent opponent just plays their top deck because they know it'll be discarded otherwise.