Negative; WoD isn't THAT bad at Mafia. At any rate, I don't believe ANY player would be so incompetent as to simply sit around and bus their buddies and not contribute much of anything else, which is what your argument would be implying.
Inherent in your quoted statement is that he's scum - it's not a question of incompetency at all.
iLord, your entire case seems to consist of "WoD is lazy scum who's just been following the town to bus his buddies." Color me unconvinced.
Though it raises a question - WoD, what HAVE you done in this game?
Even if the quoted statement was true, would that not be sufficient? Your fixation on the conclusion is shortsighted - far more important are the arguments supporting it.
Because Drey being lynched was a foregone conclusion at that point - and I was hoping to use my flavour information later on a different scum. I thought that was pretty cut and dry.
That's what was confusing me - you anticipated that your flavor information would catch a scum?
So what I'm saying is that that point MIGHT be valid if it was, say, Wessel who expressed suspicion of me and died N1.
But Ced's good enough to be a N1 kill no matter what he says.
It's certainly not definite proof or anything of the sort. I was merely pointing out that the nightkill is consistent with you being scum - eliminating a competent player that has begun to develop suspicion of you on an issue that you know is troublesome would be a very attractive option. Think of it less as a point, and more as an observation.
His #471 feels noticeably feigned. WoD goes out of his way to show off his flagrant use of antagonizing language like "rubbish" and "butthurt." The last line feels especially incongruous with the supposed tone of the post. For lack of better vernacular, it feels too "crisp" when compared to the "rough" tone that dominates the sentences prior.
Also note the transition in whom the attack is directed towards. He opens with the objectiveness of the third person, but transitions to the more personal second. In this case, it's likely indicative of the inherently involved nature of distancing.
His #567 further strengthens my conviction that his push on Asian was simple distancing. Before the dispute becomes too involved, WoD curtails the conversation and asserts that he had never "placed much stock in [his] meta arguments." The quoted line also is likely a reaction to self-awareness of the fact that he is known to dislike meta arguments, and, by calling himself out on it, he hopes to avoid any associated pressure.
In his #581, he begins to position himself to defend Asian. WoD's position her makes it likely that Artifice is town if WoD is scum.
His subsequent #664, is puzzling. Such vacillation seems dangerously careless as scum, especially having to renege on his #581 and possibly be later forced to reconcile his conflicting scum reads of both Artifice and Asian. Based on the simple brevity of #664, I'm fairly confident that WoD, at best, merely skimmed Iso's case. Given their interaction in CIM, I could see WoD being genuinely appreciative of Iso's analysis, but I detect also a thinly-veiled lackadaisical barn.
His #672 solidifies this interpretation. WoD is conspicuously attempting to save face and prove that he read the post. The argument of a player who had genuinely read and been convinced by a case would be characterized more by indignation over the legitimacy of the arguments, rather than whether or not he read them.
#706 continues the motif of making and correcting mistakes. WoD has realized that his mis-stepped with his overly eager support of Iso's case and scrambles to remedy the situation, just as he did with the flaw of his push onto Asian. He noticeably removes himself from the specifics of Iso's case, feeling neither the confidence to dispute on its grounds nor the logic is tying his fate to it.
His switch to DRey in #792 would be very unusual for scum to do, however. Especially in a climate where the town is sick of the day and especially conductive towards an imminent lynch, switching from one scumbuddy to another is not exactly optimal. The scum explanation here would be that WoD believes that a DRey lynch is inevitable at some point, and I can't say that it's a likely one.
Fortunately, WoD's #882 clears up a lot of the confusion with #792. There are three interesting attributes of this post:
- Ced has caught the scent with WoD's questionable reaction to Iso's case on Asian. Complemented with Ced's safe position, this would make him a more favorable target for the nightkill.
- Confidence in your reads is reasonable, but WoD's insistence that he will perform a "really arrogant and condescending "TOLD YOU SO" dance" is definitely exaggerated. Implies an undue certainty with regards to Asian's alignment.
- In conjunction with his #796, whether or not his assertion regarding kpaca is genuine (his #886 seems to indicate that it was), this explains his switch to DRey, as well as providing him a vehicle with which to jump off. I'm not inclined to believe that his belief in kpaca claiming some sort of cop result on DRey was adopted by a townie mindset -these things are much better left unsaid, at risking of outing the cop. Especially since he stated that he believes kpaca was making some semblance of being discreet, a townie would likely have left his suspicions unvoiced.
I'm not sure I quite understand what's going on in WoD's #1138.
- @WoD: In the above post, what do you mean by "I was hoping it wasn't DRey?"
WoD's interactions with Artifice, such as his #1138, show a genuine frustration. If WoD is scum, I'm not seeing Artifice as a scumbuddy.
==================
Though a few instances gave me pause, WoD's behavior has largely been indicative of scum. I definitely favor his lynch over any of the other popular targets at the moment.
Vote: Wrath of Dog
Also I've included my scumlist for mine and other's convenience that has compiled my reads. Hopefully I'll find some more time to clean up the indeterminate pile in the middle.
Likely Scum
Wrath_of_DoG
Indeterminate
ganderin_dan (r. pinkfloyd)
Archmage Eternal
DJ Catchem
Pale Mage (r. dropkickdude)
vezokpiraka
Artifice 101 (r. Shinen)
Niv
Yanni
Leaning Town
Liquidity Crisis
Iso (r. Gigas1)
Likely Town
Wessel
Dancing Mad (r. Burstinatrix)
kpaca
Brinatoo
AlphaInsidious
Because, as scum, would you not choose a mislynch over a lynch of one of your buddies, at least early on in the game?
The fallacy here is that you're equating AsianInvasion's words with the weight of a lynch. Baring extreme circumstances, each player's influence on the lynch is minuscule. Especially because many players (yourself apparently included) find that such interactions go a long way towards falsely incriminating or clearing players, it is not unusual to "choose" a scumbuddy over a townie when voicing your suspicions.
You misunderstand; I'm saying that it looks like you've decided to shoot for "DJ is scum" and you're trying to find reasons that fit that decision, as opposed to looking for reasons to determine his alignment.
I assure you that your interpretation is incorrect, then.[/QUOTE]
Also, iLord, I think the fact that Asian was constantly railing on both Yanni and Nakamura and flipping back and forth between "well Yanni must be scum" and "well Yanni probably isn't scum" yet leaving his vote on Naka throughout most of Day 1 is pretty damning of Yanni. Especially given what you said about him probably not putting 3 scumbuddies in his "certain scum" list.
I don't see how that's damning. Why is it unlikely for Asian to have such interactions with a townie?
Really, that seems to a running theme with your arguments, and why they remain unconvincing. You certainly present your interpretation of interactions and posts, but you fail to convince the reader that any alternative interpretations are less likely. I can understand what you believe - now you must tell me why.
I think it's somewhat contradictory of his most recent post in regards to what he said about DJ, as in his last post, it almost looks like he's trying to find a reason to think DJ could be scum. (Meaning DJ is probably town if iLord is scum.) He says Yanni seems to be the more promising of the current lynch possibilities in 1662, and then in his post on the previous page (at 15 PPP) basically says, "GEE I DUNNO" about Yanni, alluding to a possibility of Yanni/iLord being scumbuddies. Considering the scum are in a really bad place right now, I don't see them going for the bus, so this is even more likely. I feel like iLord has offered little in the way of who he thinks COULD be scum, only saying who he thinks ISN'T, which apparently consists of everybody (as everyone else he hasn't called town seems to be null to him).
I am looking for reasons to think DJ could be scum - that's what scum hunting is about. You don't go into a reread or case with a set opinion that you're trying to justify - that's just backwards. You let the posts form your opinions, and not simply your gut misconceptions. This same argument applies to my stance on Yanni. In my posts, you'll find none of your blind conviction, and apparently that's vexing you.
Additionally, it is far easier to figure out who isn't scum over who is. I'm in the process of composing an analysis of WoD's posts. You'll find at least one target of my suspicions there.
With regards to that list you quoted, ignoring the fact that the list did contain 2 scum, how likely would you think it would be for a list like that to contain 2 scum, and from there, how much less likely do you think it would contain 3?
thanks for clearing up the Vezok line, but I'm still lost on the DJ line. Are you saying that he's forcing himself to imitate his town meta, or naturally displaying his town meta? I think you're implying the first one, which would actually be a null tell from the way you're describing it.
also, with regards to what Asian said to Alpha in their "private" mason chat, considering Alpha wanted to Vig Vezok, why would it not make sense for Asian to discourage this action if Vezok wasn't mafia?
For AsianInvasion's list, I think 1-2 scum is the most likely for a scum player trying to emulate a reasonable degree of townie accuracy. Either 0 or 3 would be highly surprising.
I think DJ's "forcing"/exaggerating his town meta. It's not a very strong tell either way, but given what little I know about DJ, it would be consistent with his town play. Does DJ even have a finished scum game?
For The AI/AI/Vezok interaction, it would entirely make sense for AsianInvasion to discourage Alpha from dayvigging his scumbuddy. It also makes sense for AsianInvasion to make such a comment about a townie just to pretend to be scumhunting. I'm merely saying that I don't see either one as necessarily more likely than the other at this point.
After Yanni discounts the validity of the Burst wagon, he devotes a significant number of his early posts to analyzing the interaction between DRey and Zas. That's tricky ground for scum to tread - to talk genuinely about an interaction that you know is fabricated from both ends while continuously at risk of betraying either with some interaction. I can't guarantee that scumYanni would completely avoid it, but it's an extremely unlikely position from scum to take.
Looking back again, it looks like Yanni may have confused Niv with Zas? If so, it's possible that he may have been forced into a making a stance on the DRey-Zas interaction, discounting the above argument.
Yanni's #288 was the end of an exchange concerning Yanni's hasty stance on Brinatoo. Though I can imagine Yanni quickly and thoughtlessly making stances regardless of alignment, Yanni's #279 shortly prior conveys his impression very well. A cursory glance instills a distinctly negative vibe of Brinatoo, who's arguments are both constructed much more poorly than AE's and concerned with much pettier issues. For a townie scanning over the exchange and formulating an opinion, I can completely sympathize with Yanni's stance here.
Yanni's position towards AE is a little bit more puzzling. When questioned, he responded in #453 that he was convinced by LC's case. Not only does his #317 where he makes the vote indicate that he's voting off of kpaca's tunnel-vision point, he applauds the same AE post in his #279 that LC attacks in his case (#264). It's evident that his provided reasoning to AE in #453 is not legitimate, though I am at lost as to an explanation or motivation, other than that he simply was not paying attention to the thread at that point.
Incidentally, looking at what Alpha told us about Asian in his #1362:
Quote from Alpha »
-Says he's almost positive there's at least one scum in Burst, DRey, Wessel, Zasz. [snip]
-He claims to think Yanni is scum, wary of Brinatoo, and thinks Ced is townish.
It's unlikely that Asian stacked this list with 3 scum. Burst/DM and Wessel are probably town.
I assume from the way that Alpha presented the information that Asian phrased his suspicion of Yanni as discrete from the initial list. This makes Yanni's alignment significantly less determinate than the others above.
I'm leaning town on Yanni.
=========================
Quote from Niv »
When you're referring to Vezok's play not being unusual, you are referring it to being not unusual to him, yes? also, do you believe that then his play is indicative of him being town then?
I'm curious then what you believe the best course of action with Vezok should be then, since we can't just ignore him till Lyol, if we make it that far.
I haven't caught anything that is reasonably indicative of scum - as you've noted, this doesn't mean that he's town.
The best course of action of Vezok is as with any other player - analyze his behavior. If it's likely indicative of a scum mindset, apply pressure.
Quote from Niv »
"Okay, so, DJ's aware of his town meta, and feels like he's forcing his post to immatate his town meta, but, since this is his town meta, he looks townie"
tell me if this is wrong, cause I really don't get what benefit we get from this as I'm reading it.
What I'm trying to say is that DJ is aware of how he acts as town (and that others are aware of it) and is trying to emphasize his towniness. I've seen him do this as town, (Clue) and I believe he's doing it here as well.
Quote from Yanni »
K-pain, I have 3 abilities that give me one-shots of abilities during Autumn. I have a vote strip, a lynch threshhold reduce, and semi-doc protect that I won't disclose right now. I am reading the game, but I'm not posting in hopes that I would remain under the radar until my abilities became active, at which point I could tell the town and I could be directed on how to use them.
Under the radar from whom?
These abilities aren't all that useful, but Zind has indicated that he's taken steps to make sure that such a situation doesn't mean the role is scum. I'm inclined to call the claim a wash with regards to alignment.
Quote from PM »
iLord - Nice framing the issue with regards to Vezok. Very sneaky. I've been very clear with why I'm pursuing Vezok and what I want from it. Calling it a straight up lynch push is fine marketing, sir. Got any of your promised analysis finished yet?
Perhaps I should have to choose to use either your name or the word "lynch" but not both? Regardless, my point stands - that I'm not seeing any strong behavioral points against Vezok. If you do, I'd love for you to reiterate them.
==================
Iso keeps on spouting about these magically incriminating "interactions" that Yanni had with Asian. At least from Yanni's side, I saw nothing that couldn't reasonably go either way.
@Iso: Could you present the 2-3 Asian-Yanni interactions you feel are the most significant?
Quote from Alpha »
Already asked Zinda about QT info and it was confirmed that I could paraphrase, much like PM info, which I did in an earlier post.
On 1/31 - He told me Vezok was this way regardless of alignment and that though I could dayvig him, he wouldn't be for it.
On 12/29 - He told me he found Yanni's backpedal and weak reasoning on his DRey vote to be 'alarming'. Said Yanni's interactions with Burst were troubling and if one is scum, the other probably is too.
On 1/04 - (2 posts after the previous one) He specifically asks me for my opinion on Yanni, given his 'recent behavior.' Says he still is suspicious of him, and is using charged language in-thread to get reactions but it backfired.
I'm afraid that hardly sounds damning with regards to AI's attitude towards Vezok. Vezok does act like this regardless of alignment.
====================
I'm conflicted on Yanni. His #279 was powerfully indicative of town, but #453 and #1683 are just blatant fabrications. I certainly don't believe there's enough evidence to warrant his claim, much less his lynch. I think we'll find more fruitful pursuits elsewhere. ganderin's recent posts appear to have caught PM's attention, and I too have found the timing of his claim questionable. A reread of his posts is probably where I'll go next.
PM is saying that the Vezok lynch is based on behavioral evidence rather than lack of it? I'm not quite seeing how Vezok's play is unusual or indicative of scum in the slightest.
Likewise, I don't see the merit of the DJ Catchem case. The preponderance of Niv's points were backwards constructed, where Niv first set in his mind that DJ was scum, then stretched to find reasons to support them in DJ's posts. An obvious consequence of this is that many of the points remain entirely unconvincing.
DJ's response was concerning in the sense that he demonstrated in Clue Mafia that he was well aware of his town-meta of going overboard on his response post to an attack. His attack here, as it did there, seems very exaggerated. Although he's definitely trying to look town by doing so, I believe he's doing so as a townie.
Of the popular cases, Yanni definitely seems the most promising. As with seemingly half the thread, I haven't had time lately to do what I want to do, but I fully intend to go through his posts again.
I suspect Brin is confirmed sane and kpaca isn't for that reason though; zind wanted Brin to be able to trust the random results he gets completely, but saw no reason kpaca (as a targeted cop) should. I'd be surprised to see a paranoid cop in a set-up with randomized scum roles, as that typically requires some careful balancing. I mean, kpaca could be paranoid, but testing his sanity this way is worth it, especially since I think there's a decent chance Void could be scum even if the cop result is wrong.
I see where you're coming from, but it just seems odd that Zind would be concerned that a random cop would be concerned about the sanity of his results and a targeted cop would not.
Quote from Dancing Mad »
As for kpaca being scum, I doubt it for a lot of reasons. For one, sacrificing a scumbuddy when they're already down two members would probably be a terrible idea. For two, kpaca's interactions with both DRey and AsianI make me think he's town. For three, I had a town read on him even without his interactions with our dead scum.
In light of the above and the Void flip, I can agree that kpaca scum is unlikely at this point.
=======================
Reading back over Zas's posts, the most important information can be gleaned from his interaction with Brinatoo. At the culmination of his gradual case in #465, where he finally commits to a vote, it's readily apparent in hindsight that Zas is employing the traditional tactic of simultaneously pushing a townie and distancing from a scumbuddy. The attack on DRey was done very ostentatiously - you'll note that during all of the buildup towards the Brinatoo vote, he never bothered to use an FOS, but then noticeably accesses the label in his DRey attack.
Furthermore, Zas's hesitance to commit seriously to an attack on either AI or DRey, both of which he argued with and criticized to some capacity, seems to be intentionally restrained. This indicates that he was likely already engaged in pressuring a scumbuddy, since Zas as a player would only temper his attacks if he felt them unnaturally distributed. This conclusion is more tenuously constructed than the above one, but points to at least one scum between Niv, PinkFloyd, and DJCatchem.
A Vezok lynch seems to based solely on his lack of content and concrete stances rather than any behavioral support. Vezok's behavior and logic has been no more erratic than usual.
Yanni certainly piqued my suspicion at some points, but I'm having a hard time conjuring a holistic picture of his role in the game insofar. I'll have to scan over his posts again, specifically those with regards to his interaction with AsianInvasion.
Which is probably the consensus right now, but I saw your post as somewhat obvious. Why do you think only scum kpaca would falsely claim the Cop ability?
Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I'm hoping that kpaca won't unilaterally screw over the town.
Yes, we both mentioned this earlier. It is in my PM that it is guaranteed sane.
Why would your sanity be confirmed, and kpaca's not?
@kpaca: Could you ask Zindabad if your results are guaranteed to be accurate? Not sure if he would disclose, but it couldn't hurt to ask.
Something smells fishy here. Does no one else find the inconsistency troubling?
Thinking about it a bit more, I see two explanations that are more likely than this being a meaningless inconsistency:
1. Kpaca is not a sane cop and Zind put in Brinatoo's role as a hint.
2. Kpaca is scum faking a cop result who did not expect such an inconsistent counterclaim.
Scenario 2 would be an asinine gambit if Void isn't actually scum. Trading 1-1 does not seem a good deal for kpaca, but potentially being cleared as the cop until endgame seems like a worthy, if desperate, scum tactic.
I find it slightly weird that Brinatoo is confirmed sane by zinda, but I don't see how that has any bearing on kpaca's ability. I mean, it's possible he's paranoid, but not trusting the result is just being paranoid (like the player, not the cop-related meaning of paranoid). I also find it a bit weird that both abilities are Spring, but as of right now, I'm inclined to believe both abilities are legit. I'm also in favor of Alpha daykilling Void. Partly because I would be taking a close look at ZasZ's replacement even without kpaca's investigation. See below.
You list out several fine reasons (the sanity inconsistency, having two full cop abilities in the spring) why kpaca's role doesn't fit.
Inherent in your quoted statement is that he's scum - it's not a question of incompetency at all.
Even if the quoted statement was true, would that not be sufficient? Your fixation on the conclusion is shortsighted - far more important are the arguments supporting it.
Once again, I'm proving to be completely incompetent at this.
Unvote
I'll likely go through ganderin/pinkfloyd's posts later today.
That's what was confusing me - you anticipated that your flavor information would catch a scum?
It's certainly not definite proof or anything of the sort. I was merely pointing out that the nightkill is consistent with you being scum - eliminating a competent player that has begun to develop suspicion of you on an issue that you know is troublesome would be a very attractive option. Think of it less as a point, and more as an observation.
His #471 feels noticeably feigned. WoD goes out of his way to show off his flagrant use of antagonizing language like "rubbish" and "butthurt." The last line feels especially incongruous with the supposed tone of the post. For lack of better vernacular, it feels too "crisp" when compared to the "rough" tone that dominates the sentences prior.
Also note the transition in whom the attack is directed towards. He opens with the objectiveness of the third person, but transitions to the more personal second. In this case, it's likely indicative of the inherently involved nature of distancing.
His #567 further strengthens my conviction that his push on Asian was simple distancing. Before the dispute becomes too involved, WoD curtails the conversation and asserts that he had never "placed much stock in [his] meta arguments." The quoted line also is likely a reaction to self-awareness of the fact that he is known to dislike meta arguments, and, by calling himself out on it, he hopes to avoid any associated pressure.
In his #581, he begins to position himself to defend Asian. WoD's position her makes it likely that Artifice is town if WoD is scum.
His subsequent #664, is puzzling. Such vacillation seems dangerously careless as scum, especially having to renege on his #581 and possibly be later forced to reconcile his conflicting scum reads of both Artifice and Asian. Based on the simple brevity of #664, I'm fairly confident that WoD, at best, merely skimmed Iso's case. Given their interaction in CIM, I could see WoD being genuinely appreciative of Iso's analysis, but I detect also a thinly-veiled lackadaisical barn.
His #672 solidifies this interpretation. WoD is conspicuously attempting to save face and prove that he read the post. The argument of a player who had genuinely read and been convinced by a case would be characterized more by indignation over the legitimacy of the arguments, rather than whether or not he read them.
#706 continues the motif of making and correcting mistakes. WoD has realized that his mis-stepped with his overly eager support of Iso's case and scrambles to remedy the situation, just as he did with the flaw of his push onto Asian. He noticeably removes himself from the specifics of Iso's case, feeling neither the confidence to dispute on its grounds nor the logic is tying his fate to it.
His switch to DRey in #792 would be very unusual for scum to do, however. Especially in a climate where the town is sick of the day and especially conductive towards an imminent lynch, switching from one scumbuddy to another is not exactly optimal. The scum explanation here would be that WoD believes that a DRey lynch is inevitable at some point, and I can't say that it's a likely one.
Fortunately, WoD's #882 clears up a lot of the confusion with #792. There are three interesting attributes of this post:
- Ced has caught the scent with WoD's questionable reaction to Iso's case on Asian. Complemented with Ced's safe position, this would make him a more favorable target for the nightkill.
- Confidence in your reads is reasonable, but WoD's insistence that he will perform a "really arrogant and condescending "TOLD YOU SO" dance" is definitely exaggerated. Implies an undue certainty with regards to Asian's alignment.
- In conjunction with his #796, whether or not his assertion regarding kpaca is genuine (his #886 seems to indicate that it was), this explains his switch to DRey, as well as providing him a vehicle with which to jump off. I'm not inclined to believe that his belief in kpaca claiming some sort of cop result on DRey was adopted by a townie mindset -these things are much better left unsaid, at risking of outing the cop. Especially since he stated that he believes kpaca was making some semblance of being discreet, a townie would likely have left his suspicions unvoiced.
I'm not sure I quite understand what's going on in WoD's #1138.
- @WoD: In the above post, what do you mean by "I was hoping it wasn't DRey?"
WoD's interactions with Artifice, such as his #1138, show a genuine frustration. If WoD is scum, I'm not seeing Artifice as a scumbuddy.
==================
Though a few instances gave me pause, WoD's behavior has largely been indicative of scum. I definitely favor his lynch over any of the other popular targets at the moment.
Vote: Wrath of Dog
Also I've included my scumlist for mine and other's convenience that has compiled my reads. Hopefully I'll find some more time to clean up the indeterminate pile in the middle.
Likely Scum
Wrath_of_DoG
Indeterminate
ganderin_dan (r. pinkfloyd)
Archmage Eternal
DJ Catchem
Pale Mage (r. dropkickdude)
vezokpiraka
Artifice 101 (r. Shinen)
Niv
Yanni
Leaning Town
Liquidity Crisis
Iso (r. Gigas1)
Likely Town
Wessel
Dancing Mad (r. Burstinatrix)
kpaca
Brinatoo
AlphaInsidious
The fallacy here is that you're equating AsianInvasion's words with the weight of a lynch. Baring extreme circumstances, each player's influence on the lynch is minuscule. Especially because many players (yourself apparently included) find that such interactions go a long way towards falsely incriminating or clearing players, it is not unusual to "choose" a scumbuddy over a townie when voicing your suspicions.
I assure you that your interpretation is incorrect, then.[/QUOTE]
I don't see how that's damning. Why is it unlikely for Asian to have such interactions with a townie?
Really, that seems to a running theme with your arguments, and why they remain unconvincing. You certainly present your interpretation of interactions and posts, but you fail to convince the reader that any alternative interpretations are less likely. I can understand what you believe - now you must tell me why.
I am looking for reasons to think DJ could be scum - that's what scum hunting is about. You don't go into a reread or case with a set opinion that you're trying to justify - that's just backwards. You let the posts form your opinions, and not simply your gut misconceptions. This same argument applies to my stance on Yanni. In my posts, you'll find none of your blind conviction, and apparently that's vexing you.
Additionally, it is far easier to figure out who isn't scum over who is. I'm in the process of composing an analysis of WoD's posts. You'll find at least one target of my suspicions there.
For AsianInvasion's list, I think 1-2 scum is the most likely for a scum player trying to emulate a reasonable degree of townie accuracy. Either 0 or 3 would be highly surprising.
I think DJ's "forcing"/exaggerating his town meta. It's not a very strong tell either way, but given what little I know about DJ, it would be consistent with his town play. Does DJ even have a finished scum game?
For The AI/AI/Vezok interaction, it would entirely make sense for AsianInvasion to discourage Alpha from dayvigging his scumbuddy. It also makes sense for AsianInvasion to make such a comment about a townie just to pretend to be scumhunting. I'm merely saying that I don't see either one as necessarily more likely than the other at this point.
Looking back again, it looks like Yanni may have confused Niv with Zas? If so, it's possible that he may have been forced into a making a stance on the DRey-Zas interaction, discounting the above argument.
Yanni's #288 was the end of an exchange concerning Yanni's hasty stance on Brinatoo. Though I can imagine Yanni quickly and thoughtlessly making stances regardless of alignment, Yanni's #279 shortly prior conveys his impression very well. A cursory glance instills a distinctly negative vibe of Brinatoo, who's arguments are both constructed much more poorly than AE's and concerned with much pettier issues. For a townie scanning over the exchange and formulating an opinion, I can completely sympathize with Yanni's stance here.
Yanni's position towards AE is a little bit more puzzling. When questioned, he responded in #453 that he was convinced by LC's case. Not only does his #317 where he makes the vote indicate that he's voting off of kpaca's tunnel-vision point, he applauds the same AE post in his #279 that LC attacks in his case (#264). It's evident that his provided reasoning to AE in #453 is not legitimate, though I am at lost as to an explanation or motivation, other than that he simply was not paying attention to the thread at that point.
Incidentally, looking at what Alpha told us about Asian in his #1362:
It's unlikely that Asian stacked this list with 3 scum. Burst/DM and Wessel are probably town.
I assume from the way that Alpha presented the information that Asian phrased his suspicion of Yanni as discrete from the initial list. This makes Yanni's alignment significantly less determinate than the others above.
I'm leaning town on Yanni.
=========================
I haven't caught anything that is reasonably indicative of scum - as you've noted, this doesn't mean that he's town.
The best course of action of Vezok is as with any other player - analyze his behavior. If it's likely indicative of a scum mindset, apply pressure.
What I'm trying to say is that DJ is aware of how he acts as town (and that others are aware of it) and is trying to emphasize his towniness. I've seen him do this as town, (Clue) and I believe he's doing it here as well.
Under the radar from whom?
These abilities aren't all that useful, but Zind has indicated that he's taken steps to make sure that such a situation doesn't mean the role is scum. I'm inclined to call the claim a wash with regards to alignment.
Perhaps I should have to choose to use either your name or the word "lynch" but not both? Regardless, my point stands - that I'm not seeing any strong behavioral points against Vezok. If you do, I'd love for you to reiterate them.
==================
Iso keeps on spouting about these magically incriminating "interactions" that Yanni had with Asian. At least from Yanni's side, I saw nothing that couldn't reasonably go either way.
@Iso: Could you present the 2-3 Asian-Yanni interactions you feel are the most significant?
I'm afraid that hardly sounds damning with regards to AI's attitude towards Vezok. Vezok does act like this regardless of alignment.
====================
I'm conflicted on Yanni. His #279 was powerfully indicative of town, but #453 and #1683 are just blatant fabrications. I certainly don't believe there's enough evidence to warrant his claim, much less his lynch. I think we'll find more fruitful pursuits elsewhere. ganderin's recent posts appear to have caught PM's attention, and I too have found the timing of his claim questionable. A reread of his posts is probably where I'll go next.
PM is saying that the Vezok lynch is based on behavioral evidence rather than lack of it? I'm not quite seeing how Vezok's play is unusual or indicative of scum in the slightest.
Likewise, I don't see the merit of the DJ Catchem case. The preponderance of Niv's points were backwards constructed, where Niv first set in his mind that DJ was scum, then stretched to find reasons to support them in DJ's posts. An obvious consequence of this is that many of the points remain entirely unconvincing.
DJ's response was concerning in the sense that he demonstrated in Clue Mafia that he was well aware of his town-meta of going overboard on his response post to an attack. His attack here, as it did there, seems very exaggerated. Although he's definitely trying to look town by doing so, I believe he's doing so as a townie.
Of the popular cases, Yanni definitely seems the most promising. As with seemingly half the thread, I haven't had time lately to do what I want to do, but I fully intend to go through his posts again.
I see where you're coming from, but it just seems odd that Zind would be concerned that a random cop would be concerned about the sanity of his results and a targeted cop would not.
In light of the above and the Void flip, I can agree that kpaca scum is unlikely at this point.
=======================
Reading back over Zas's posts, the most important information can be gleaned from his interaction with Brinatoo. At the culmination of his gradual case in #465, where he finally commits to a vote, it's readily apparent in hindsight that Zas is employing the traditional tactic of simultaneously pushing a townie and distancing from a scumbuddy. The attack on DRey was done very ostentatiously - you'll note that during all of the buildup towards the Brinatoo vote, he never bothered to use an FOS, but then noticeably accesses the label in his DRey attack.
Furthermore, Zas's hesitance to commit seriously to an attack on either AI or DRey, both of which he argued with and criticized to some capacity, seems to be intentionally restrained. This indicates that he was likely already engaged in pressuring a scumbuddy, since Zas as a player would only temper his attacks if he felt them unnaturally distributed. This conclusion is more tenuously constructed than the above one, but points to at least one scum between Niv, PinkFloyd, and DJCatchem.
A Vezok lynch seems to based solely on his lack of content and concrete stances rather than any behavioral support. Vezok's behavior and logic has been no more erratic than usual.
Yanni certainly piqued my suspicion at some points, but I'm having a hard time conjuring a holistic picture of his role in the game insofar. I'll have to scan over his posts again, specifically those with regards to his interaction with AsianInvasion.
Perhaps I'm being too optimistic, but I'm hoping that kpaca won't unilaterally screw over the town.
Funny, I was getting the general impression that people wanted Void dead and completely ignored/missed the implications of Brinatoo's claim.
Why would your sanity be confirmed, and kpaca's not?
@kpaca: Could you ask Zindabad if your results are guaranteed to be accurate? Not sure if he would disclose, but it couldn't hurt to ask.
Something smells fishy here. Does no one else find the inconsistency troubling?
Thinking about it a bit more, I see two explanations that are more likely than this being a meaningless inconsistency:
1. Kpaca is not a sane cop and Zind put in Brinatoo's role as a hint.
2. Kpaca is scum faking a cop result who did not expect such an inconsistent counterclaim.
Scenario 2 would be an asinine gambit if Void isn't actually scum. Trading 1-1 does not seem a good deal for kpaca, but potentially being cleared as the cop until endgame seems like a worthy, if desperate, scum tactic.
You list out several fine reasons (the sanity inconsistency, having two full cop abilities in the spring) why kpaca's role doesn't fit.
Unvote
@Brinatoo: Just to confirm, you are explictly told that your results are sane and @kpaca: Your role has no such disclaimer?