I am a fan of jahn's lists, yes.
His current list has obvious similarities.
Tron is obviously nearly impossible to beat game 1. You need running counterspells into jace, or a lucky secure. Its not good.
It obviously gets better postboard, but still not great.
Some people like to board a lot against tron, but in my opinion, if I'm expecting a lot of tron the correct decision is simply not to play jeskai. Some people will ride or die with red, and thats fine, but matchups like tron and dredge are simply not worth devoting half your sideboard each to beat.
That being said, UW control relies heavily on wraths, which makes it much weaker to humans. I'm still playing 4 helix, 1 bolt, and 1 snapcaster that UW doesn't. I'm playing 1-2 fewer wraths, but I have more removal in the board as well. I'm not givng up all of our strength here.
My list is definitely somewhat light on mainboard countermagic. Its probably my biggest complaint with it, but as I mentioned, I think mainboard negate is very weak right now, and I heavily dislike mana leak in decks playing path (I've been on logic knot for years are have no plans on switching). Therefore, I decided the best thing to do was play more countermagic in the board and accept some poor game 1 matchups.
I've been thinking a lot about wall of omens recent (I've not played it in quite a while) and its definitely more appealing. That being said, I think the card is better suited to UW control (as it lacks bolt and has a lot of overlap). I also think that I would rather playing fewer helix/more bolts if I played wall, and I like that less than just playing more helix.
I'm off runed halo as well because it doesn't protect planeswalkers and it often forces us into a position where we need to find a boardwipe to keep jace alive, which kind of defeats the purpose of the card a solid 50% of the time. It might still be good enough to make it back in. Hard to tell yet.
As I mentioned, I'm still on 3 jaces primarily because I want to be seeing him a lot, but 2 may well be correct.
I value secure a lot because I'm much less capable of of ending games without it (less burn/snaps) but I've played without it in the past. I think in more traditional builds its not as good.
I have been trying out entreat a little, as it seems very strong in theory. It obviously can get awkward, but its possible the upside is high enough for this not to matter. I haven't seen it enough to know for sure, yet.
For those who bleed UWR and expect a Tron meta, then Jeskai Tempo + Rejection out of the board is where you want to be at
I think, or as you put it, not Jeskai at all.
Yeah the mainboard counters in a more tap-out style are always going to suffer. I struggled to find room in the list i posted above. 3 jaces may be 1 too many, so goin to 2 jaces may end up being correcr. But I was already on 3x dispel 2x counterflux out of the board, and that seems like enough to bring in to conpensate (maybe 2 dispel 2 flux 1 negate is better though?)
Wall of omens doesn't seem intuitive for Jeskai, but if I drop bolt and need to protect walkers efficiently, or rely on things like Verdict, Anger, or D-Sphere to catch up on board state, then wall seems good. It also is a safety blanket against BBE surprising you or a walker with 3 hasty damage. It does compete with a lot of other 2cmc cards though, if we are leaning on helix without bolt.
Regarding Entreat or Terminus etc.... I do dearly want to make it work, but am not sure Jace makes it viable for UWX.
Nice list Cody, although i do find the 1 bolt out of place.
I do not rule out the viability of running 3 snaps, but you wouuld have to show me a 0 bolt list for me to even consider it for my own taste.
A zero bolt list with more tap-out elements, like the ones by MTGO user janh are perfectly viable (he also won I, believe, two MTGO Challenges late last year with a 0 bolt list and similar tech).
For those considering bolt-less UWR, the list he won the MTGO challenge last August is here;
Running 0 bolts, however, does completely change the dynamic of the deck. For example, Snappy and bolt are our best g1 cards against tron, since T1 bolt, with snap beats follow-up is our best (probably only?) path to victory g1. There is no Jeskai Control (not tempo) list that I know of that is favoured against tron in G1. Then in the interactive creature MUs (like humans), the way we approach removal sequencing has to drastically alter, and so our lists do to. A lot of UW players feel unfavoured against humans, I have yet to meet a bolt-slinging Jeskai Control player who has...
Anyway... aside from the rant... I would consider only 3 snapcasters in something like this (and I'll probably do some testing with this list). Its possible i want 1 more MD counterspell, but whether that is another Knot, another Cryptic, a Negate, or a Spell Snare, I don't know. I feel like it would crush Jund, so maybe snare is correct to play to the MD strengths.
10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
Yours is not the only post I was referring to, you were quite thorough. And I am pretty close to the mark on 10% though, you're welcome to add your more thorough analysis on the numbers.
FYI I was conmparing 2 birds 21 land with 0 birds 22 land. I don't know about you but most lists I see are 2 birds not 1 bird.
10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
@NoobKing, until you back up your rhetoric regarding birds with figures (such as the decrease in % opening hands without a mana dork), i will not be paying too much heed to what you say.
Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
Hey guys, I have never played the deck, but want to build the deck. The Madcap version just got 3rd in the Team constructed of SCG Philly, but I dont know if its that good. What should I be playing? Madcap version, Land Destruction version? Birds of paradise, Bonfire? Why is Birds bad? What should I do!?
Do what you want. Birds are fine, they aid consistency. Version you run is a meta or personal call, especially the inclusion or exclusion of bonfire and thragtusk. Madcap is weak to path and kologhans command, so if you see s lot of those spells avoid the combo (and there are a lot of those spells).
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For those who bleed UWR and expect a Tron meta, then Jeskai Tempo + Rejection out of the board is where you want to be at
I think, or as you put it, not Jeskai at all.
Yeah the mainboard counters in a more tap-out style are always going to suffer. I struggled to find room in the list i posted above. 3 jaces may be 1 too many, so goin to 2 jaces may end up being correcr. But I was already on 3x dispel 2x counterflux out of the board, and that seems like enough to bring in to conpensate (maybe 2 dispel 2 flux 1 negate is better though?)
Wall of omens doesn't seem intuitive for Jeskai, but if I drop bolt and need to protect walkers efficiently, or rely on things like Verdict, Anger, or D-Sphere to catch up on board state, then wall seems good. It also is a safety blanket against BBE surprising you or a walker with 3 hasty damage. It does compete with a lot of other 2cmc cards though, if we are leaning on helix without bolt.
Regarding Entreat or Terminus etc.... I do dearly want to make it work, but am not sure Jace makes it viable for UWX.
1
I do not rule out the viability of running 3 snaps, but you wouuld have to show me a 0 bolt list for me to even consider it for my own taste.
A zero bolt list with more tap-out elements, like the ones by MTGO user janh are perfectly viable (he also won I, believe, two MTGO Challenges late last year with a 0 bolt list and similar tech).
For those considering bolt-less UWR, the list he won the MTGO challenge last August is here;
http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=16609&d=302715&f=MO
And his current list;
http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18624&d=316034&f=MO
Running 0 bolts, however, does completely change the dynamic of the deck. For example, Snappy and bolt are our best g1 cards against tron, since T1 bolt, with snap beats follow-up is our best (probably only?) path to victory g1. There is no Jeskai Control (not tempo) list that I know of that is favoured against tron in G1. Then in the interactive creature MUs (like humans), the way we approach removal sequencing has to drastically alter, and so our lists do to. A lot of UW players feel unfavoured against humans, I have yet to meet a bolt-slinging Jeskai Control player who has...
Anyway... aside from the rant... I would consider only 3 snapcasters in something like this (and I'll probably do some testing with this list). Its possible i want 1 more MD counterspell, but whether that is another Knot, another Cryptic, a Negate, or a Spell Snare, I don't know. I feel like it would crush Jund, so maybe snare is correct to play to the MD strengths.
Jeskai Control (U/W/R): Bolt-Less Tap-Out Control
Shared via TopDecked MTG https://www.topdecked.me/decks/c9ac6b8d-2a6b-4b6d-9444-14eccd5a6aa7
Maindeck (60)
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Wall of Omens
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Path to Exile
1 Secure the Wastes
4 Serum Visions
3 Lightning Helix
2 Logic Knot
1 Anger of the Gods
2 Electrolyze
2 Cryptic Command
2 Supreme Verdict
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Search for Azcanta
1 Detention Sphere
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
1 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
Sideboard (15)
1 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Vendilion Clique
3 Dispel
2 Celestial Purge
1 Wear // Tear
2 Counterflux
1 Settle the Wreckage
2 Runed Halo
(Edited heavily since while on my phone formatting is difficult)
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https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/956975#online
I do believe wall of omens, clique, and Resto are all well positioned now. I also feel uneasy about queller in the MD nowadays.
1
Seems like all the things I want my fatty to do. Except I want him to do them ETB, or have haste. I think he's under the bar without one of those.
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Look for BenPatNik on Twitch, he started streaming recently.
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Yours is not the only post I was referring to, you were quite thorough. And I am pretty close to the mark on 10% though, you're welcome to add your more thorough analysis on the numbers.
FYI I was conmparing 2 birds 21 land with 0 birds 22 land. I don't know about you but most lists I see are 2 birds not 1 bird.
1
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
1
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
That's enough to keep me on birds.
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Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
1
Do what you want. Birds are fine, they aid consistency. Version you run is a meta or personal call, especially the inclusion or exclusion of bonfire and thragtusk. Madcap is weak to path and kologhans command, so if you see s lot of those spells avoid the combo (and there are a lot of those spells).