1st of all, he is on 4 Snapcaster Mage. Since the unbanning of Jace, Sultai Midrange has held a general consensus that Snapcaster Mage is arguably the worst card in the deck (Sultai Midrange). The Modern BUG Reddit is littered with comments about this. Having access to Assassin's Trophy doesn't change this. Too many people think of Sultai Midrange as some UB deck with Goyf and Todd Stevens is the biggest offender in such regard. He is historically the last professional player second to Hoogland that I would listen to when it comes to Sultai in Modern. I will always listen to people that actively play Sultai Midrange in Modern before I listen to a large number of the professional players who very likely have not put in anywhere near the same amount of reps with the archetype.
Todd's deck is not Sultai Midrange, that is Sultai Control. Liliana of the Veil is hot garbage in Control decks and has historically found her way into them as a 3 mana removal spell that has a repeat option and those decks have not graced modern in some time - for good reason. So while I see the merits of his argument, I can also tell that you are trying to compare apples to oranges here. Blue in Sultai Midrange, via Snapcaster Mage, is looking to inflate value on converting used resources through the graveyard. That is a very different role than something like Search for Azcanta that is looking to inflate resources by generating true card advantage. There are two very different fundamentals. LotV in this sense, is not at odds with Snapcaster Mage. Sultai Midrange is literally focused on stripping resources while simultaneously advancing a board on the cheap and Liliana lets you do this quite effectively with bother her +1 and -2 and in conjunction with Snapcaster Mage you are allowed to offset parity while doing so. That is a completely different game plan than what Todd Steven's deck is trying to do, which is trade resources and refill as you pivot from a reactive game to a proactive game.
2nd, while I don't mind talking about pivoting the deck to more of a control style, I would like to remind you that while Sultai Midrange may not be well represented... this thread is for what has been established as a GBu Midrange archetype - and what has established this thread are multiple SCG Open top 16's, multiple 5-0 deck lists, and I believe 2 top 8 1ks decklists. So the notion that the discussion in here really isn't working off anything is not accurate. I have continued to notice that you seem to habitually discount that, for reasons unknown.
Is the control variant more effective with the addition of Assassin's Trophy? Who knows. Maybe, it is worth working on. Is this thread for the un-established control variant? Not based on the intent behind structuring the forums the way they have here on MTGSalvation.
It has nothing to do with the land and everything to do with Freebooter and Meddling Mage.
I will argue that Decay hits most things that are relevant anyways, which means Trophy isn’t really what I consider to be significantly better - but in instances where it is, Trophy can close huge gaps for us.
He explains why in an earlier post at the top of this page. Trophy gets very awkward when you draw multiples early game when it's likely they still have basics left. Ramping them (with an untapped land!) hurts worse thn you'd think during turn 1-3 or even later if they happen to be stuck on lands.
IMO you want Trophy as a late game catch-all against UWx, or early game against H1 and Tron. Otherwise most circumstances and match-ups I believe Abrupt decay is superior. Against Storm, Burn, Humans, Spirits - Trophy is actively bad so I certainly wouldn't want 4x in my main deck. And TBH I wouldn't play more than 3 in my 75 and I wouldn't run less than 2 Abrupt decay (in the 75)
----EDIT
To point out something people keep overlooking:
Decay is not bad against UW or Tron. It is actively good against UW because it destroys SFA, Detention Sphere, Vendilion, Rest in Peace, little Gideon (if they use him) and it can't be countered. Trophy helps mid-to-late game against Planeswalker, flipped Azcanta, and a lethal Colonnade. Both are important and useful, but you don't want either of them in copious amounts.
Decay kills Oblivion Stone AND kills their turn 1 Map if you're on the play. Both of these applications have been relevant in my competitive play experience. I don't even board out decay against Tron because it kills chalice, and also kills (or forces them to pop) Relic of Progenitus.
I board all copies of Decay out vs UW. It really is not great in that match as they really only run 1 Detention Sphere and I don't care about RIP. They only run 2 copies of Gideon at most and Clique is not always a thing nor is Spell Queller.
Vs Tron it only hits their set up and if they have already set up the card is just dead, less than discard like Seize. I do like it over something like IoK though, it just isn't the greatest against Tron either.
I don't know, like my reply in the Abzan thread I don't see the need of shaving Trophy's only for the drawback. My feeling is that; after playing 2-3 copies most decks are out of basics. At that point you can start Snapcaster + Trophy without them having the access to more basics. Also, sometimes you just kill their manland or any other dual land. Which in theory doesn't give them "an extra land", you just kill their more important land in exchange for a basic land.
Personally I would run Decay over Pulse. But keep the 4x Trophy for sure, although in a deck with snapcasters I can also see 3 copies.
There is a reason you shave Trophy in favor of Decay & Pulse - The Humans match. Each removal is effective, and the difference between Trophy and Decay are not as steep as I suspect people want to believe. Yes, Trophy hits a lot of weak points, but not so many that it is worth going all in on them and sidestepping almost equally effective removal and just giving up the Humans match as a result.
I think you cut out a huge chunk of context when it comes to why I run 22 land...
I According to your statements, you expect that you also hit your 4th landdrop fairly consistantly, to which I can only give you the numbers: Its about 53 % by natural draws. Also for reference, Frank Karstens statement on a 22 landbuild without cantrips: "You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (99.2%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (84.7%) for several 3-drops" Your experience shows that it works, which is fine, but I am trying to tell you that you are quite heavily relying on your filtering to perform well.
I get that you are drinking that Karsten kool-aid, and while I don't fault you for it - there is evidence to suggest that I am not the only one experiencing little issue with the low land count of 22. Another user just posted that they didn't run into any issues while playtesting with 22 lands.
There was a list that did well with 21 lands a while back and even the pilot stated they intended to stick with 21 land. In fact there have also been multiple 5-0 MTGO lists running 22 land earlier this year, arguably one of the notable constants from lists that have actually done well within the archetype since the JTMS unbanning. It has also been cited that even with SV, the card is primarily used for filtering late game instead of draw fixing early game. Strange that that would be the conclusion with a 21-23 land count list that is seeing success, right?
Do the numbers seem suspect according to Karsten? Sure. Do they seem suspect according to posted results? Not really. I think you are operating on a few cognitive biases here.
Congrats on the T8, Superna. I'd like to see the sideboard plans you mentioned if you wouldn't mind sharing.
Your list reminds me of something I saw Todd Stevens talking about when Jace was first unbanned. He predicted JTMS would be best in a midrange shell where it's reasonable to protect him with creatures and abuse his +0 and +2 abilities, rather than relying on his -1 (obviously still using it when necessary).
No scavenging ooze at all? What are your thoughts on the card? From my small amount of experience practicing with Sultai Mid lately, it looks like you'd get ran over by Bridgevine. Did you play against the deck at all?
Nissa, Steward of Elements - How often were you able to +0 her for value? or was she mostly just a scry 2 engine (totally awesome even at that)
Do you feel a single Sunken Ruins would've helped reach UU & BB more consistently?
7x spot removal, 4x Decay and 3x Push - How do you feel about these numbers? Was Decay relevant often in enough in your matches (i.e. non-creature target) or could you have maybe switched these numbers. I'm just thinking about mana efficiency in the first few turns against something like Humans, Spirits, or Affinity.
You seem very confident in your deck list so please don't just debate my points out of defensive habit. Dark Confidant has to be the card I'm most surprised about. Hoogland and Stevens (among other respected players) have offered thoughts that Bob isn't as good in Sultai as BG Rock or Jund, for a number of other reasons but also because we have great card advantage engines in Snapcaster and Tracker. I know you mentioned you dislike Tracker, and I haven't played with the card enough to offer an opinion, but Hoogland speaks really highly of her. So much so that I'm buying into a playset and trying it out. She does beg for a higher land count though, and that's valuable deck space right there...
To offer a concession, I'm really glad to see someone performing well with the deck at all, number 1. And then number 2 - way to go Creeping Tar Pit! IMO it's the best manland and I'm happy to see a list with 4x placing well. Also tipping my hat to running all 8x discard spells. This is another fringe tech I've been pushing my in BGx decks since before Jund Shadow started doing it. Especially alongside LOTV, who allows you to pitch unwanted discards later, and JTMS who allows you to just reshuffle them back in.
I will post my SB plans in the morning for everyone.
I have ran 1-2 Scavenging Ooze fairly regularly. In all honesty, I prefer the card in Jund more than Sultai as you get more value beyond it just being a GY hate card. Your Bolts allow you to reach with Ooze, Sultai does not have much reach for Ooze to really put in work with as little effort as Jund does. AS for the lifegain, a common issue I have had is that no amount of lifegain short of running multiple Thragtusk or Courser are going to give you enough for the burn match. I instead opted for 3 Spell Snare out of the board for this match (and others) because it hits almost everything and if you keep trading 1 for 1 with them, they eventually have to aim burn at creatures if they want to live. So Scavenging Ooze wasn't something I considered all that valuable in a match like Burn. Like I said, I go back and forth on having them in the deck and I think my overall conclusion is that they are good, but there are likely better cards overall. As for Bridgevine, the deck can be a battle sometimes. You really need to keep aggressive hands in this match and prioritize creatures and removal over walkers, but the match has not been unwinnable for me. I put it around the 50%-60% in my favor depending. Draws for this match are incredibly situational based on how both players open the game.
Nissa does sometimes 0 for value off Dark Confidant, but mainly she is just a +2 to set up your draws and then ult for damage. I am pleased with her, but may be willing to cut her in favor of some GRN slots. I remember someone placing well in SCG Open (13th or so) that spoke highly of her so I tried her out and she works well for what you put into her. Definately not a 1 of that I have regret at any point.
There is actually 9 spot removal spells if you count Pulse. I am happy with that number. I settled on 4x Abrupt Decay vs 4x Fatal Push as a concession to likely running into more Tron decks and Spirits decks than Humans or Affinity. I think a 4x split vs a 3x split really depends on what matches you want to hedge for. My removal count switches up to 3 Push, 2 Decay, 3 Trophy and 1 Pulse after GRN and that still slots me in at 9.
Dark Confidant is probably the best draw for Sultai in my opinion. I tried Visions, I tried Bauble, I tried Opt. The problem was that super aggressive decks can go under those well. Dark Confidant can at least serve as a blocker and draw cards depending on what the game state is like. I think he is absolutely underrated. He is the bees knees vs anything that isn't Aggro. You can set him up well with Nissa and Grim Flayers to boot. The problem I had with Tracker was that too often I was in situations where I wanted to spend mana to remain proactive and Clues were essentially useless until I was behind and needed them, if I had any to begin with. Sultai, in my experience, really needs to focus on T1 discard T2 threat T3 repeat and Tracker does not follow that plan well in Sultai. He is at odds with a lot of what the GB slots want to be doing and more inline with what the UG slots want to be doing - and we don't run any real UG slots. I have the same issues with counterspells in the main, they are at odds with the GB slots while wanting to work a UB angle, and we don't run a UB angle. I have seen some of Hooglands Sultai streams, and to be honest his play with these decks is abysmal, I take almost nothing he says to heart when it comes to Sultai. I agree with Davis that Tracker is one of the best cards in Modern, but I think the rest of Modern is an entirely different beast with different appetites where Tracker fits better. I don't think that is a reason to run it in a deck that isn't really hungry for that kind of card. I share the same sentiments with Serum Visions, great card, but for different decks.
Tar Pit is incredibly powerful and arguably the best manland in modern, the problem is that it doesn't have a home which makes it appear weaker on the surface. I also think Tar Pit is why the deck, which plays like Jund, can work with 22 land where Jund cannot. Jund has Ravine which cost more mana (which is incredibly relevant when you want to leave mana open and attack.
As for 8 Discard spells, I think 8 is an important number. I have ran less but you really want consistent turn 1 and 2 plays and a turn 1 discard spell makes your turn 2 creates so much more relevant than most other turn 2 creatures in Modern.
I have been messing around all week with Sultai lists. Just playing anything I see online or in this forum. I did not like the Todd Stevens list posted on SCG. Goyf in control lists feels weird to me without Splinter Twin. The above list is with Assassin's Trophy added to superna7ural with a different sideboard. The other change I made was to swap darkslick shore for blooming marsh and one less tarpit for a tree top. Completely agree 22 lands seems low for a midrange list, but after playing games today I never ran into that issue for some reason. The Sultai manabase has always been tricky and there is def tension between Lili and Jace/Clique in the mana. I think mid-range is the place to be, especially if Trophy encourages more goyf decks in the format.
I think the number 22 just sounds bad, but the reality is my list plays 28 cards in the main that cost 2 or less mana, only 7 cards that cost 3 mana, and only 3 cards that cost 4 mana. You also have to consider the heavy filtering mechanics you have access to. The curve is exceptionally low and you only ever really need to hit 4 mana in a game. 5 or 6 is optimal and then you want to just stop seeing lands.
I may caution against replacing all 3 Blooming Marsh for Darkslick Shores, but let me know how it pans out for you.
I forgot who turned me onto Grim Flayer a while back, but it is probably the best card in the deck hands down.
I can also post SB plans I wrote down if anyone is interested in seeing those.
Interesting list. In my mind, since you only got 15 blue mana sources you can't support a turn 3 Clique or a turn 4 Jace potentially (you would need 19 or at least 18 blue sources for that). This is not something I would like personally. Also I don't think that I like 4 manlands in a 22 land build, in my experience, the etb tapped clause does hurt you too much. Especially when you run 3 LoTV and 3 Jace this hurts. In my liking 22 lands is also too few especially when you don't have cantrips and have 7 three drops and 3 four drops. For a consistant manabase you would run 24 lands for such a mana curve.
How do you guys feel about Azcanta in Bug? I feel its a more resilient Bob pretty much, as the upkeep scry often works similarly to Bob which often draws past excess lands on top of the library. However, its not a guaranteed CA unless it flips and it can't dig for threats which is something that bothers a little bit in a midrange deck. It can get PWs though.
So I will say this, I had 0 issues with the mana. Having blue when I needed it was never an issue. Having a Tar Pit enter tapped, never impacted my ability to make the most optimal play. It is easy to sit back an analyze the mana, in fact I have a lot of people who are critical about it - but They are never people who have actually sat down with the list or invested time in the list. If your turn 4 land is a Tar Pit, you will have no shortage of 3 mana plays and often times they are correct over just slamming down a JTMS anyways. If you lead off with a Thoughtseize --> Goyf or Flayer --> Fatal Push + Goyf or Flayer --> Liliana, you are in a huge position. You can interchange your turn 3 and 4 play and still be ahead. You could mix and match your 1 drops and still be ahead. The bottom line is that the deck is redundant and linear in what it does and streamlined to do it in the most efficient way possible. This is a beatdown deck at its core and I think Sultai decks that deviate from playing the beatdown are inferior based on previous iterations I have worked with. But that is kind of the byproduct of playing with U/B cards alongside G/B cards, they play at odds. I think most people suffer from picking a direction and sticking with it and shaping what they can around it from there. In fairness, I think swapping out 1 Vendilion Clique for a 23rd land is acceptable. I think 24 land in Sultai Midrange is just bad. The deck, even with cantrips, struggles with having weak late game cantrips and excess land is the absolute worst. I would rather draw dead discard spells than excess land.
I also completely dropped cantrips because they are at odds with everything Sultai Midrange should be doing. Dark Confidant and Grim Flayer offer primier card selection while not impeeding on your overall plan A and plan B.
It may seem like a striking list, but I didn't arrive at the numbers and selections out of coincidence. I have put a lot of work into this list and have worked with just about everything under the sun when it comes to Sultai, extensively.
All this is not to say that the deck does not have its issues.
1) I cannot beat KCI consistently, it is an incredibly difficult match up.
2) The deck is susceptible to crumbling to consecutive redraws in a heavily favored board position, because it has no actual card draw on the cheap outside of Dark Confidant.
3) The redundancy and streamlined manabase means the deck mulligans poorly if your hand is clunky, but you can reliably keep a larger percentage of 7 cards, it just sucks when you have to mulligan.
4) Because it plays like Jund, it begs the question "Why not Jund?". I say this, because most sultai decks trying to run more blue for things like Serum Visions, don't actually play like Jund - I know because I am a Jund player pre-Sultai.
Overall, I am pleased with this deck enough to use it as a core shell and it only gets better with GRN. I will be sticking with the core into GP Portland in December with 100% confidence in it.
How do you guys feel about Azcanta in Bug? I feel its a more resilient Bob pretty much, as the upkeep scry often works similarly to Bob which often draws past excess lands on top of the library. However, its not a guaranteed CA unless it flips and it can't dig for threats which is something that bothers a little bit in a midrange deck. It can get PWs though.
Search for Acanta isn't going to block for you vs Humans, Merfolk, Elves, traditional Affinity. Search for Azcanta cannot leverage actual pressure vs Control decks either. Search for Azcanta isn't letting you snowball discard spells vs decks like Tron.
I consider Dark Confidant to be vastly superior to Search for Azcanta. Take that with a grain of salt because my original itterations ran Tireless Trackers, a Tasigur, and Searches and Search was the first cut I ever made with Sultai.
I took 5th in a PPTQ today, losing in the quarters to UW Control, a heavily favored match. My opponent would even admit he managed to runner, runner, runner, runner his way out of 2 of the 3 games we played.
Spectators got to see Grim Flayer do what Grim Flayer excels at, in the face of something like Reat in Peace. The notion that the card needs to be a 4/4 was dismissed multiple times throughout the event, even though he always ended games as a 4/4.
The real takeaway was this - Sultai is a GB Midrange deck. It has to play like one. Using counterspells in the main really changes the entire dynamic of the deck and it makes your threats less efficient. Your optimal gameplay is to just play T1 discard, T2 cheap efficient threat, T3 a combination of turn 1 & 2 or something that leads to a redundant maneuver turn 4 maintain game state or work second angle (like developing a planeswalker).
Time and time again, that was the most efficient thing I have ever found the deck capable of doing. I have played with countless iterations and had countless discussions in regards to common card options that come to mind.
Delve threats don’t come down early enough for you to follow up your powerful discard. They come down late enough that you are losing the opportunity to diversify your game state. Turns 3 and 4 really need to set up your plan B while bolstering your plan a. Delve threats are very linear in this sense.
Tireless Tracker creates an odd dichotomy where your deck wants you to be tapping out to advance a game state, but your creatures wants you to start loading your eggs in a basket while offering a means to gas your hand in a reactive manner in a proactive deck. I think in straight BG this is less of a concern because you don’t have certain things you have o be working towards, like Jace set ups or Snapcaster value trades.
My initial interactions really tried to make creatures like Tassigur, Mandrils, and Angler work. Even JVP, and the deck played less efficiently in retrospect. Just my two cents after my PPTQ today and reflecting on the things I really appreciate out of the deck and what I felt was the main contributor to how consistently my games played out as I worked towards 5th place.
I did think about the state of Sultai as well with Trophy and especially Unmoored Ego being printed soon. I think it has to look very streamlined and similar to a typical Jund/Abzan build (where I come from obviously).
You got 20 black sources which is enough for turn 3 LtLH, you got 17 blue sources which is sufficient for turn 4 jace (if you account the cantrips as well it basically adds up to 18 sources, which is enough to have double blue on turn 4) and you got 13 green sources enough to have turn 2 green.
Gurmag + Snapcaster + Liliana, the Last Hope seems counter intuitive. Liliana has you wanting to consume spells from the GY with Gurmag delving, but Snapcaster wants you leaving spells in and delving lands and creatures. In my experience, you give Relic of Progenitus a lot of leeway whne you thin out your yard like that.
With Unmoored Ego being legal, is Ceremonious Rejection still a thing? I feel like Damping Sphere stops Tron but overlaps vs Storm decks as well as the random creature spammy decks like Elves.
Can you explain what you mean? Thing in the Ice seems like the best option against humans, bridge vine, hollow one, bogles, and affinity.
Jace would fit my definition of greedy. He doesnt do a ton for the linear matchups and is really just there for the attrition based ones.
Thing seems the exact opposite. It isnt good against control or midrange but if your opponent doesnt have removal then thing is nuts in what are likely our worst matchups.
First of all, there are established BUG lists to build off of that are streamlined.
Second, Think in the Ice means you cannot really play things like Tarmogoyf, Grim Flayer, Tireless Tracker, or Scavenging Ooze without reseting your own board at no value for a mere flip on Thing in the Ice - in a set of colors that has a plethora of removal spells at its disposal. Your game gets pushed more towards instant speed play and creatures like Snapcaster Mage or Vendilion Clique and at that point, why are you even in green?
Sultai Midrange, using previously establishes lists, don't have issues with the decks you listed for a reason to run Thing in the Ice. If you are having issues with them, it is more than likely a result of inefficient operations from the pilot (or greedy/bad lists).
Affinity can be trouble sometimes, but you can fix that with boarding options pretty easily. Hollowed ones end up just running into Goyfs in the mid and late game. You can wall them pretty hard if you focus on the long game. As for Boggles, lists running Spreading Seas were incredibly favored in the match, and with access to Assassin's Trophy you can advance the same game plan without Spreading Seas. They have 2 basics to search for and few lands to redraw.
All that isn't even mentioning how bad of a card it is in general and how many actual interaction points with it exist in the current Modern format climate.
Which brings up a good point I thought of when first looking at the spoilers. Will Assassin's Trophy get banned a la DRS? I realize this is not the forum to discuss this so I'll drop it we that.
For now, I'm certainly planning on playing at least 3-4 in all my decks. Trophy plus Unmoored Ego certainly creates legacy BUG feel for this deck. If only we had some of the creatures they do (Shardless, True Name, Strix) but we've got our own value engines in Snapcaster and Tracker.
I like the list posted with creatures as 4 Tarmogoyf, 4 Snapcaster, 2 Ooze, 3 Tracker. That seems like a solid place to start. I think I'll try something like that with a PW package of: 2 LOTV, 1 JTMS, 1 LTLH
I don't expect it to get banned. It has been no secret that BG Midrange decks have been pushed out of the format entirely by Tron decks and it is pretty clear that this card was meant to address decks like Tron. I have a hard time imagining this card is anything but what they wanted it to be.
Todd's deck is not Sultai Midrange, that is Sultai Control. Liliana of the Veil is hot garbage in Control decks and has historically found her way into them as a 3 mana removal spell that has a repeat option and those decks have not graced modern in some time - for good reason. So while I see the merits of his argument, I can also tell that you are trying to compare apples to oranges here. Blue in Sultai Midrange, via Snapcaster Mage, is looking to inflate value on converting used resources through the graveyard. That is a very different role than something like Search for Azcanta that is looking to inflate resources by generating true card advantage. There are two very different fundamentals. LotV in this sense, is not at odds with Snapcaster Mage. Sultai Midrange is literally focused on stripping resources while simultaneously advancing a board on the cheap and Liliana lets you do this quite effectively with bother her +1 and -2 and in conjunction with Snapcaster Mage you are allowed to offset parity while doing so. That is a completely different game plan than what Todd Steven's deck is trying to do, which is trade resources and refill as you pivot from a reactive game to a proactive game.
2nd, while I don't mind talking about pivoting the deck to more of a control style, I would like to remind you that while Sultai Midrange may not be well represented... this thread is for what has been established as a GBu Midrange archetype - and what has established this thread are multiple SCG Open top 16's, multiple 5-0 deck lists, and I believe 2 top 8 1ks decklists. So the notion that the discussion in here really isn't working off anything is not accurate. I have continued to notice that you seem to habitually discount that, for reasons unknown.
Is the control variant more effective with the addition of Assassin's Trophy? Who knows. Maybe, it is worth working on. Is this thread for the un-established control variant? Not based on the intent behind structuring the forums the way they have here on MTGSalvation.
You can literally virtually negate the fairness of her +1 ability in Sultai far more effectively than you can in both Abzan and Jund...
I will argue that Decay hits most things that are relevant anyways, which means Trophy isn’t really what I consider to be significantly better - but in instances where it is, Trophy can close huge gaps for us.
I board all copies of Decay out vs UW. It really is not great in that match as they really only run 1 Detention Sphere and I don't care about RIP. They only run 2 copies of Gideon at most and Clique is not always a thing nor is Spell Queller.
Vs Tron it only hits their set up and if they have already set up the card is just dead, less than discard like Seize. I do like it over something like IoK though, it just isn't the greatest against Tron either.
There is a reason you shave Trophy in favor of Decay & Pulse - The Humans match. Each removal is effective, and the difference between Trophy and Decay are not as steep as I suspect people want to believe. Yes, Trophy hits a lot of weak points, but not so many that it is worth going all in on them and sidestepping almost equally effective removal and just giving up the Humans match as a result.
I get that you are drinking that Karsten kool-aid, and while I don't fault you for it - there is evidence to suggest that I am not the only one experiencing little issue with the low land count of 22. Another user just posted that they didn't run into any issues while playtesting with 22 lands.
There was a list that did well with 21 lands a while back and even the pilot stated they intended to stick with 21 land. In fact there have also been multiple 5-0 MTGO lists running 22 land earlier this year, arguably one of the notable constants from lists that have actually done well within the archetype since the JTMS unbanning. It has also been cited that even with SV, the card is primarily used for filtering late game instead of draw fixing early game. Strange that that would be the conclusion with a 21-23 land count list that is seeing success, right?
Do the numbers seem suspect according to Karsten? Sure. Do they seem suspect according to posted results? Not really. I think you are operating on a few cognitive biases here.
I will post my SB plans in the morning for everyone.
I have ran 1-2 Scavenging Ooze fairly regularly. In all honesty, I prefer the card in Jund more than Sultai as you get more value beyond it just being a GY hate card. Your Bolts allow you to reach with Ooze, Sultai does not have much reach for Ooze to really put in work with as little effort as Jund does. AS for the lifegain, a common issue I have had is that no amount of lifegain short of running multiple Thragtusk or Courser are going to give you enough for the burn match. I instead opted for 3 Spell Snare out of the board for this match (and others) because it hits almost everything and if you keep trading 1 for 1 with them, they eventually have to aim burn at creatures if they want to live. So Scavenging Ooze wasn't something I considered all that valuable in a match like Burn. Like I said, I go back and forth on having them in the deck and I think my overall conclusion is that they are good, but there are likely better cards overall. As for Bridgevine, the deck can be a battle sometimes. You really need to keep aggressive hands in this match and prioritize creatures and removal over walkers, but the match has not been unwinnable for me. I put it around the 50%-60% in my favor depending. Draws for this match are incredibly situational based on how both players open the game.
Nissa does sometimes 0 for value off Dark Confidant, but mainly she is just a +2 to set up your draws and then ult for damage. I am pleased with her, but may be willing to cut her in favor of some GRN slots. I remember someone placing well in SCG Open (13th or so) that spoke highly of her so I tried her out and she works well for what you put into her. Definately not a 1 of that I have regret at any point.
There is actually 9 spot removal spells if you count Pulse. I am happy with that number. I settled on 4x Abrupt Decay vs 4x Fatal Push as a concession to likely running into more Tron decks and Spirits decks than Humans or Affinity. I think a 4x split vs a 3x split really depends on what matches you want to hedge for. My removal count switches up to 3 Push, 2 Decay, 3 Trophy and 1 Pulse after GRN and that still slots me in at 9.
Dark Confidant is probably the best draw for Sultai in my opinion. I tried Visions, I tried Bauble, I tried Opt. The problem was that super aggressive decks can go under those well. Dark Confidant can at least serve as a blocker and draw cards depending on what the game state is like. I think he is absolutely underrated. He is the bees knees vs anything that isn't Aggro. You can set him up well with Nissa and Grim Flayers to boot. The problem I had with Tracker was that too often I was in situations where I wanted to spend mana to remain proactive and Clues were essentially useless until I was behind and needed them, if I had any to begin with. Sultai, in my experience, really needs to focus on T1 discard T2 threat T3 repeat and Tracker does not follow that plan well in Sultai. He is at odds with a lot of what the GB slots want to be doing and more inline with what the UG slots want to be doing - and we don't run any real UG slots. I have the same issues with counterspells in the main, they are at odds with the GB slots while wanting to work a UB angle, and we don't run a UB angle. I have seen some of Hooglands Sultai streams, and to be honest his play with these decks is abysmal, I take almost nothing he says to heart when it comes to Sultai. I agree with Davis that Tracker is one of the best cards in Modern, but I think the rest of Modern is an entirely different beast with different appetites where Tracker fits better. I don't think that is a reason to run it in a deck that isn't really hungry for that kind of card. I share the same sentiments with Serum Visions, great card, but for different decks.
Tar Pit is incredibly powerful and arguably the best manland in modern, the problem is that it doesn't have a home which makes it appear weaker on the surface. I also think Tar Pit is why the deck, which plays like Jund, can work with 22 land where Jund cannot. Jund has Ravine which cost more mana (which is incredibly relevant when you want to leave mana open and attack.
As for 8 Discard spells, I think 8 is an important number. I have ran less but you really want consistent turn 1 and 2 plays and a turn 1 discard spell makes your turn 2 creates so much more relevant than most other turn 2 creatures in Modern.
I think the number 22 just sounds bad, but the reality is my list plays 28 cards in the main that cost 2 or less mana, only 7 cards that cost 3 mana, and only 3 cards that cost 4 mana. You also have to consider the heavy filtering mechanics you have access to. The curve is exceptionally low and you only ever really need to hit 4 mana in a game. 5 or 6 is optimal and then you want to just stop seeing lands.
I may caution against replacing all 3 Blooming Marsh for Darkslick Shores, but let me know how it pans out for you.
So I will say this, I had 0 issues with the mana. Having blue when I needed it was never an issue. Having a Tar Pit enter tapped, never impacted my ability to make the most optimal play. It is easy to sit back an analyze the mana, in fact I have a lot of people who are critical about it - but They are never people who have actually sat down with the list or invested time in the list. If your turn 4 land is a Tar Pit, you will have no shortage of 3 mana plays and often times they are correct over just slamming down a JTMS anyways. If you lead off with a Thoughtseize --> Goyf or Flayer --> Fatal Push + Goyf or Flayer --> Liliana, you are in a huge position. You can interchange your turn 3 and 4 play and still be ahead. You could mix and match your 1 drops and still be ahead. The bottom line is that the deck is redundant and linear in what it does and streamlined to do it in the most efficient way possible. This is a beatdown deck at its core and I think Sultai decks that deviate from playing the beatdown are inferior based on previous iterations I have worked with. But that is kind of the byproduct of playing with U/B cards alongside G/B cards, they play at odds. I think most people suffer from picking a direction and sticking with it and shaping what they can around it from there. In fairness, I think swapping out 1 Vendilion Clique for a 23rd land is acceptable. I think 24 land in Sultai Midrange is just bad. The deck, even with cantrips, struggles with having weak late game cantrips and excess land is the absolute worst. I would rather draw dead discard spells than excess land.
I also completely dropped cantrips because they are at odds with everything Sultai Midrange should be doing. Dark Confidant and Grim Flayer offer primier card selection while not impeeding on your overall plan A and plan B.
It may seem like a striking list, but I didn't arrive at the numbers and selections out of coincidence. I have put a lot of work into this list and have worked with just about everything under the sun when it comes to Sultai, extensively.
All this is not to say that the deck does not have its issues.
1) I cannot beat KCI consistently, it is an incredibly difficult match up.
2) The deck is susceptible to crumbling to consecutive redraws in a heavily favored board position, because it has no actual card draw on the cheap outside of Dark Confidant.
3) The redundancy and streamlined manabase means the deck mulligans poorly if your hand is clunky, but you can reliably keep a larger percentage of 7 cards, it just sucks when you have to mulligan.
4) Because it plays like Jund, it begs the question "Why not Jund?". I say this, because most sultai decks trying to run more blue for things like Serum Visions, don't actually play like Jund - I know because I am a Jund player pre-Sultai.
Overall, I am pleased with this deck enough to use it as a core shell and it only gets better with GRN. I will be sticking with the core into GP Portland in December with 100% confidence in it.
Search for Acanta isn't going to block for you vs Humans, Merfolk, Elves, traditional Affinity. Search for Azcanta cannot leverage actual pressure vs Control decks either. Search for Azcanta isn't letting you snowball discard spells vs decks like Tron.
I consider Dark Confidant to be vastly superior to Search for Azcanta. Take that with a grain of salt because my original itterations ran Tireless Trackers, a Tasigur, and Searches and Search was the first cut I ever made with Sultai.
3 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Grim Flayer
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Nissa, Steward of Elements
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Fatal Push
4 Abrupt Decay
4 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Polluted Delta
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
4 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Swamp
1 Island
1 Forest
3 Spell Snare
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Fatal Push
2 Damnation
3 Damping Sphere
2 Engineered Explosives
I forgot who turned me onto Grim Flayer a while back, but it is probably the best card in the deck hands down.
I can also post SB plans I wrote down if anyone is interested in seeing those.
Spectators got to see Grim Flayer do what Grim Flayer excels at, in the face of something like Reat in Peace. The notion that the card needs to be a 4/4 was dismissed multiple times throughout the event, even though he always ended games as a 4/4.
The real takeaway was this - Sultai is a GB Midrange deck. It has to play like one. Using counterspells in the main really changes the entire dynamic of the deck and it makes your threats less efficient. Your optimal gameplay is to just play T1 discard, T2 cheap efficient threat, T3 a combination of turn 1 & 2 or something that leads to a redundant maneuver turn 4 maintain game state or work second angle (like developing a planeswalker).
Time and time again, that was the most efficient thing I have ever found the deck capable of doing. I have played with countless iterations and had countless discussions in regards to common card options that come to mind.
Delve threats don’t come down early enough for you to follow up your powerful discard. They come down late enough that you are losing the opportunity to diversify your game state. Turns 3 and 4 really need to set up your plan B while bolstering your plan a. Delve threats are very linear in this sense.
Tireless Tracker creates an odd dichotomy where your deck wants you to be tapping out to advance a game state, but your creatures wants you to start loading your eggs in a basket while offering a means to gas your hand in a reactive manner in a proactive deck. I think in straight BG this is less of a concern because you don’t have certain things you have o be working towards, like Jace set ups or Snapcaster value trades.
My initial interactions really tried to make creatures like Tassigur, Mandrils, and Angler work. Even JVP, and the deck played less efficiently in retrospect. Just my two cents after my PPTQ today and reflecting on the things I really appreciate out of the deck and what I felt was the main contributor to how consistently my games played out as I worked towards 5th place.
Gurmag + Snapcaster + Liliana, the Last Hope seems counter intuitive. Liliana has you wanting to consume spells from the GY with Gurmag delving, but Snapcaster wants you leaving spells in and delving lands and creatures. In my experience, you give Relic of Progenitus a lot of leeway whne you thin out your yard like that.
With Unmoored Ego being legal, is Ceremonious Rejection still a thing? I feel like Damping Sphere stops Tron but overlaps vs Storm decks as well as the random creature spammy decks like Elves.
About the only criticism I have.
First of all, there are established BUG lists to build off of that are streamlined.
Second, Think in the Ice means you cannot really play things like Tarmogoyf, Grim Flayer, Tireless Tracker, or Scavenging Ooze without reseting your own board at no value for a mere flip on Thing in the Ice - in a set of colors that has a plethora of removal spells at its disposal. Your game gets pushed more towards instant speed play and creatures like Snapcaster Mage or Vendilion Clique and at that point, why are you even in green?
Sultai Midrange, using previously establishes lists, don't have issues with the decks you listed for a reason to run Thing in the Ice. If you are having issues with them, it is more than likely a result of inefficient operations from the pilot (or greedy/bad lists).
Affinity can be trouble sometimes, but you can fix that with boarding options pretty easily. Hollowed ones end up just running into Goyfs in the mid and late game. You can wall them pretty hard if you focus on the long game. As for Boggles, lists running Spreading Seas were incredibly favored in the match, and with access to Assassin's Trophy you can advance the same game plan without Spreading Seas. They have 2 basics to search for and few lands to redraw.
All that isn't even mentioning how bad of a card it is in general and how many actual interaction points with it exist in the current Modern format climate.
I don't expect it to get banned. It has been no secret that BG Midrange decks have been pushed out of the format entirely by Tron decks and it is pretty clear that this card was meant to address decks like Tron. I have a hard time imagining this card is anything but what they wanted it to be.