If anybody (except Jenna I guess) doubts DoTA is Town please speak now so I can correct that misconception.
------
@Anaklusmos
I think Jenna is wrong that Pizza ever fake-claimed? I would have to dig through Pizza's giant ISO to check. The player Pizza replaced claimed to be RB'd N1 when the slot wasn't.
@Jenna Please quote the post where Pizza stated he was a pure commuter.
Jenna
Anaklusmos
Killjoy
Tubba Fett
~I would be willing to claim here~
Dota shouldn't claim unless they have relevant info.
DoTA is pretty obviously Town with the grapefruit flip, and Jenna is pretty scum given they're the only plausible scum on two different mislynch wagons (Day 2 Meg and Day 1 shadow).
I would be fine with hammering Jenna now, except I would like some time to think about who the third scum is (particularly to do votal analysis). I don't want to get NK'd and leave Town without my thoughts.
Agree his Jenna stuff early D2 is inconsistent with him shooting them. I would expect a scumread or trying to figure out their alignment but instead there's some incredibly soft questions, only to put them quite high in #548 with very little process in-between (compare #374). I do think having 2 Town Vigilantes would be weird. I think on balance the fact he did it during the EoD rush makes it more likely to be false, given it reduces the "But why would scum claim that?" factor. Additionally, his behavior this day phase has been rather subdued for somebody who would be the game losing game lynch if Town. Nothing much else stands out (which is scummy, nothing else looks especially Town).
I didn't originally take their low activity as scummy because I know them from off-site and they're normally better than their activity here as either alignments. After drawing that conclusion I decided to mostly dismiss their posts as a nulltell, which I now think was a mistake.
I still believe their access problems were a big reason they looked so bad. That said, on re-read I think this might be a case of somebody having a double-struggle of being scum and having meta problems. I've seen this a few times - somebody can normally play well as both alignments, but when they have a meta problem they scum play is affected far more than their Town play. In retrospect their sudden good post at the end of Day 1 could be seen as evidence of this, once they got kicked into action they did alright. Another thing I noticed on re-read is that they claim to be using the machine (a votal analysis tool) which requires quite a bit of careful updating (it requires noting the post # of every post with a vote in it based on who is the voter / votee.
Going to do grapefruit ISO in future, was going to do it just not but got distracted for a couple hours.
I promise @pizza I'll vote grapefruit tomorrow if I'm not completely finished with my ISOs.
Disagree with whoever said it could just be scum "wanting it more". "Wanting it more" would be having an ISO 6 pages long instead of 12 pages long. He's given himself so much room to make an unforced error while faking a villager process (in particular his escalation and deescalation of his plan to make Colin and Killjoy answer questions) that I don't see it as a wolf. He's almost certainly trying to keep Town aligned to his reads once he's NK'd.
Don't have much to say on his particulars, I think he's good enough at faking details that they move the needle little.
Ok, read up some on Jenna. Still need to re-read Pizza, DoTA, and grapefruit. Expect those over next couple days.
Most notable posts are #197 #366 and #414. If you can bother to decode them they're readlists of varying quality, there is definitely some continuation between them but there's some odd moves, like moving grapefruit slot from Town-y to scum lean with little process. They also swung Colin around from strong Town to strong scum with this exchange:
In my experience a "reads-post" would be more indicative of scum. It gives more room for maneuverability and it's lazier. The post felt really good to me. When I read it I felt comfortable, like it's a natural post rather than a constructed one. As I've said earlier I'm an emotional player, so that's going to skew things which can be read multiple ways at times. Either way, I think the post is a good measuring stick showing Killjoy's thought process which can be used to compare future posts and interactions.
Could you give an example of something you think Killjoy has committed to? Give an example of something Killjoy could post that you would call a walk-back. Because right now he hasn't committed to any reads except Voxx being Town, which was justified with false premises anyway.
I'm actually in the process of looking deeper into Killjoy at the moment. I'm not sure whether I'll get it up today or tomorrow as my schedule has gone a little haywire this weekend.
Junna's continued evasiveness (which was brought up on day one by me and others) and misinformation has pretty much hit breaking point for me. I'd be happy to lynch her today if Tubba doesn't get traction (or if he preforms a miracle).
Consider my trust in Colin forever broken. I can forgive a few missing straws, but I am no longer able to sip.
which seems like very minor evidence. They do have Colin moving down a bit in #366 but not far down.
One notable thing is that once Day 3 starts, Jenna /stops/ posting reads in favor of reacting to Pizza's scum read of them, including inverting their townread of Voxx-slot to vote Pizza. This is not town behavior.
Pizza's scumread of Jenna mostly involves taking scum!grapefruit as axiomatic and their no Lynch push today, neither of which move the needle for me that much.
Dislike No Lynch just because of the players pushing it. With all the claims scum might have a 1-shot Vig, which means a No Lynch would lose us the game.
Reaver: You were saying Pizza/DotA/??? scumteam. Does Grape fit into that? Does Pizza KNOW Grape is scum?
Or... Pizza/Colin/Grape? Colin came in to confirm Pizza's role out of nowhere.
I do not believe Pizza and DoTA would bus grapefruit as hard as they did on D1-2 if they were all scum.
Colin's claim is a Thing we need to sort out but we might want to wait until Day 4 to do so.
You gave some setup speculation but didn't draw many conclusions. What do you think all the claims mean for players' alignments?
So I'm pretty sure the scum team is either (grapefruit/Jenna/???) or (Pizza/DoTA/???). I don't think pizza and grapefruit's roles are both in the setup. It's probably the former world, but I'm going to spend a few days re-reading the thread to make sure, and redoing my votal analysis without Jenna as lock-Town.
Jenna is definitely scum if DoTA is Town given how King Torg wagon was an instant replay of the Shadow wagon, and DoTA is definitely town if grapefruit is scum.
Does anybody disagree with the above? I see Pizza has similar thoughts.
I find it scummy you're ignoring potential evidence when we have 25 hours to decide a lynch, and you also have no plans to review it at some point in the future. I don't think a Townie would ignore solving the game to that degree. Scum have a couple motivations for that though - primarily being lazy and giving themselves the freedom to move onto however as advances their mafia win condition.
I think you lied to exact degree you just admitted: you read the OP and nothing else from before you replaced in. This is mostly tangential to my main point.
almost certainly, the early game is usually a goldmine of information. sometimes you can catch newbscum or folks who aren't comfortable with their scumgame in their first post!
I agree you can often catch scum on their early posts!
Vote: Megiddo
(For the class: Megiddo's claim that the early game has information but he still isn't going to read it shows a ludicrous lack of Town mindset to solve the game, and #530 shows he is to some degree lying about not reading the thread anyway.)
no plans to do so currently; if there's anything in particular I should really be reading let me know.
not sure what conclusions you're expecting me to have yet, but keep posting. i'm reading everything since I came in.
How do you plan to find the Mafia if you're not going to read the thread?
I don't expect you to have any particular conclusions, but I expect you to have some opinion on who the mafia are.
see bolded; unless you think the scum are completely blended in and won't do anything catchable after post #528 this is kind of ?? for me
also, this may just be semantics, but wouldn't "opinion on who the mafia are" be "conclusions?"
Yes, they're the same. I don't expect you to have a specific conclusion, but I expect you to have some arbitrary conclusions.
It strikes me as really weird that you're ignoring the early parts of the thread. To turn you argument on it's head, do you think mafia did something catchable before post #528?
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Scum is at least one in {DoTA / Voxx / shadow}, I don't think any combinations are ruled out. I recall shadow suggesting it could be all Town, but I don't buy that - TubbaFett, Colin and King Torg could have all jumped on as it was forming, and there was no reason the wagon had to stop when Jenna voted, other players could have hopped on later. I've lost more EV by undertrusting votal analysis than overtrusting it. Former two not getting on looks bad for shadow.
“Preview” edit: Given what Pizza has done since I started working on this, I’m convinced Pizza is not scum unless DoTA is also scum. This implies either DoTA or shadow is scum. and if DoTA is Town so is Pizza.
Voxx vote would be more distancing than turbo-bussing, which seems off Voxx's scum MO.
I don't think Jenna is a wolf outside this but I will mention that I think Jenna/shadow is never w/w.
Hmm given the Voxx vs. shadow thing here, probably at least one of Voxx and shadow are Town. I don't see them attacking each other but making up and being best buddies this Day phase. (Although Voxx hasn't exactly given shadow glowing praise).
So that conclusion is: Voxx or Shadow is Town
DoTA wagon should be analyzed on how it grows, so I'll look at it later.
Wow this makes me mad at the Osie lynch all over again.
So one of DoTArchon/Tubba Fett/Killjoy is scum, but that’s more because they’re all scummy than votal analysis. What’s more interesting is that one or two of them is probably Town.
I don’t think DoTArchon/Tubba is w/w there. Tubba Fett/Killjoy looks less solid given that TubbaFett is being wagonned, so it might override the natural scum instinct to spread out.
Vote Count 1.8 DoTArchon - 3 (Jenna Tolaria, King Torg, A Bear)
osieorb18 - 3 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy)
King Torg / A Bear’s votes on DoTArchon are notable, since we know they’re counterwagonning a mislynch. I strongly doubt either is scum with DoTArchon, or scum with each other.
So either grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town either DoTArchon or King Torg is Town either grapefruit or King Torg is Town See Votal 1.11 analysis
Vote Count 1.11 osieorb18 - 4 (DoTArchon, Tubba Fett, Killjoy, King Torg) (L-3)
A Bear - 3 (Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18)
DoTArchon - 2 (Jenna Tolaria, A Bear)
This votal is very interesting.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Shadow, TubbaFett, and Killjoy don’t make sense with DoTArchon or A Bear
King Torg’s vote there looks like a move to save Bear-slot. I went up and strikethough’d my original conclusion that King Torg / A Bear aren’t w/w, that’s enough to null it.
Only thing interesting that happens through EoD is shadow moving onto Bear and back off, I think have a much stronger shadow/grapefruit anti-align tell during Day 2 so I’m going to analyze that instead.
Shadow’s vote here is the opposite of King Torg, and had a decent chance of saving Osie.
Shadow or A Bear is Town
----------------
Colin also gets a massive reward of scumpoints for not voting /the entire Day phase/, which is both anti-Town and makes him hard to analyze with this method.
Normally I’d analyze the Osie wagon here, but I analyzed the beginning and don’t have enough townreads to derive info from the tail.
----------------
Day 2:
This implies anti-alignment between Grapefruit and DoTArchon and Killjoy/Grapefruit.
There’s a few reasons I don’t think Killjoy/DoTArchon have quite as a strong anti-alignment here, but given they’re already anti-aligned from the Vote Count 1.11 logic I don’t care to argue.
So: either DoTArchon or Grapefruit is Town (again) either Killjoy or Grapefruit is Town (again)
#508
Given Pizza’s massive walls on grapefruit, I have a hard time believing both are scum
So: either Pizza or Grapefruit is Town
Aggressive Worldbuilding:
I've found rather than trying to somehow sort premises based on reliability it's best to use them all and see what shakes out. Even if you've accidentally eliminated the actual team, I've found generally there's some sort of repeating pattern which is in the actual team.
Assembling all the conclusions together as premises:
Shadow wagon: DoTA or shadow is scum. if DoTA is Town so is Pizza
Votal 1.5: Pizza or Shadow is Town
Votal 1.7: DoTArchon or Tubba is Town.
Votal 1.8: grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town (Also votal 2.3) DoTArchon or Megiddo is Town
Votal 1.11: Shadow or DoTA is Town Shadow or grapefruit is Town (Also 1.12) TubbaFett or DoTA is Town TubbaFett or grapefruit is Town Killjoy or DoTA is Town Killjoy or grapefruit is Town (Also Votal 2.3)
#508: Pizza or grapefruit is Town
Pretty nice. Most interesting thing is shadow wagon implies DoTA or shadow is scum, and Votal 1.11 implies one of them is Town, so we can break the worlds down into the mutually exclusive scum!DoTA and scum!shadow worlds.
scum!DoTA:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Tubba, grapefruit, Mediggo, Killjoy
So if DoTA is scum, it’s only with DoTA/Colin/Pizza.
Scum!shadow:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Pizza, grapefruit.
So that’s a lot more flex, it’s
Shadow and any two of {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}. Writing them out:
Shadow/Tubba/Megiddo
Shadow/Tubba/Colin
Shadow/Tubba/Killjoy (This one is slightly odd due to Votal 1.7)
Shadow/Megiddo/Colin
Shadow/Megiddo/Killjoy
Shadow/Colin/Killjoy
Conclusions:
I want to investigate Shadow, but since he's active I'm not willing to turbo-lynch him. I don't want to lynch DoTA or grapefruit this Day phase. Best lynches are in {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}.
Sorting those by my regular reads, I'd put them TubbaFett < Killjoy < Colin < Megiddo. Probably need to re-ISO Megiddo
Vote: TubbaFett
Probably going to ISO Trog again. Not planning to re-iterate on DoTA since I've changed my mind there unless somebody asks me to.
-------------- @Megiddo Have you read the game yet? If not, when are you planning to finish that? Do you have any conclusions that aren't based on a single post?
------
@Anaklusmos
I think Jenna is wrong that Pizza ever fake-claimed? I would have to dig through Pizza's giant ISO to check. The player Pizza replaced claimed to be RB'd N1 when the slot wasn't.
@Jenna Please quote the post where Pizza stated he was a pure commuter.
I would want a massclaim in this order:
Jenna
Anaklusmos
Killjoy
Tubba Fett
~I would be willing to claim here~
Dota shouldn't claim unless they have relevant info.
DoTA is pretty obviously Town with the grapefruit flip, and Jenna is pretty scum given they're the only plausible scum on two different mislynch wagons (Day 2 Meg and Day 1 shadow).
I would be fine with hammering Jenna now, except I would like some time to think about who the third scum is (particularly to do votal analysis). I don't want to get NK'd and leave Town without my thoughts.
Agree his Jenna stuff early D2 is inconsistent with him shooting them. I would expect a scumread or trying to figure out their alignment but instead there's some incredibly soft questions, only to put them quite high in #548 with very little process in-between (compare #374). I do think having 2 Town Vigilantes would be weird. I think on balance the fact he did it during the EoD rush makes it more likely to be false, given it reduces the "But why would scum claim that?" factor. Additionally, his behavior this day phase has been rather subdued for somebody who would be the game losing game lynch if Town. Nothing much else stands out (which is scummy, nothing else looks especially Town).
Vote: Grapefruit21
I didn't originally take their low activity as scummy because I know them from off-site and they're normally better than their activity here as either alignments. After drawing that conclusion I decided to mostly dismiss their posts as a nulltell, which I now think was a mistake.
I still believe their access problems were a big reason they looked so bad. That said, on re-read I think this might be a case of somebody having a double-struggle of being scum and having meta problems. I've seen this a few times - somebody can normally play well as both alignments, but when they have a meta problem they scum play is affected far more than their Town play. In retrospect their sudden good post at the end of Day 1 could be seen as evidence of this, once they got kicked into action they did alright. Another thing I noticed on re-read is that they claim to be using the machine (a votal analysis tool) which requires quite a bit of careful updating (it requires noting the post # of every post with a vote in it based on who is the voter / votee.
Going to do grapefruit ISO in future, was going to do it just not but got distracted for a couple hours.
I promise @pizza I'll vote grapefruit tomorrow if I'm not completely finished with my ISOs.
Disagree with whoever said it could just be scum "wanting it more". "Wanting it more" would be having an ISO 6 pages long instead of 12 pages long. He's given himself so much room to make an unforced error while faking a villager process (in particular his escalation and deescalation of his plan to make Colin and Killjoy answer questions) that I don't see it as a wolf. He's almost certainly trying to keep Town aligned to his reads once he's NK'd.
Don't have much to say on his particulars, I think he's good enough at faking details that they move the needle little.
Once again, still really sure it's grape/jenna, feel like I need to look at pizza/dota to be through. Will do that before Day ends.
Most notable posts are #197 #366 and #414. If you can bother to decode them they're readlists of varying quality, there is definitely some continuation between them but there's some odd moves, like moving grapefruit slot from Town-y to scum lean with little process. They also swung Colin around from strong Town to strong scum with this exchange:
which seems like very minor evidence. They do have Colin moving down a bit in #366 but not far down.
One notable thing is that once Day 3 starts, Jenna /stops/ posting reads in favor of reacting to Pizza's scum read of them, including inverting their townread of Voxx-slot to vote Pizza. This is not town behavior.
Pizza's scumread of Jenna mostly involves taking scum!grapefruit as axiomatic and their no Lynch push today, neither of which move the needle for me that much.
So moderate scum lean on Jenna.
I do not believe Pizza and DoTA would bus grapefruit as hard as they did on D1-2 if they were all scum.
Colin's claim is a Thing we need to sort out but we might want to wait until Day 4 to do so.
You gave some setup speculation but didn't draw many conclusions. What do you think all the claims mean for players' alignments?
Jenna is definitely scum if DoTA is Town given how King Torg wagon was an instant replay of the Shadow wagon, and DoTA is definitely town if grapefruit is scum.
Does anybody disagree with the above? I see Pizza has similar thoughts.
Can we please consolidate on one-two people? We have 3 votes on Megiddo and a bunch of one-offs.
For Day 3 I'm tempted to check out of the thread for the last 47 hours to avoid this nonsense.
I think you lied to exact degree you just admitted: you read the OP and nothing else from before you replaced in. This is mostly tangential to my main point.
Vote: Megiddo
(For the class: Megiddo's claim that the early game has information but he still isn't going to read it shows a ludicrous lack of Town mindset to solve the game, and #530 shows he is to some degree lying about not reading the thread anyway.)
It strikes me as really weird that you're ignoring the early parts of the thread. To turn you argument on it's head, do you think mafia did something catchable before post #528?
I don't expect you to have any particular conclusions, but I expect you to have some opinion on who the mafia are.
How votal analysis works: (since a few posts by players this game has made it seem some players don’t know)
1) Scum tend not to vote one-right-after-the other on wagons. This is a manifestation of scum’s desire to be seen as “reasonable” more than wanting to actually find scum - they tend to want a Townie to “confirm” a wagon is reasonable before jumping on. Scum players do this instinctively without thinking about it. I think this tell is underused, because I recently analyzed a game for this tell and discovered scum voted together around 1/4th the rate you’d expect if player alignment didn’t matter for the probability of being wagon neighbors, and the scum specifically attempted to dodge this very tell.
2) Wagons on Townies tend to contain some scum. This has nothing to do with the “statistics” that any group of 5ish players is likely to contain a scum and everything to do with the fact that as a mislynch acquires more Townies it becomes a more and more desirable target of scum to vote on. Similar to rule of 3, this means wagons contain a scum/Town ratio with less variance than a completely random group of players.
3) Scum don’t like bussing. There are two specific places where scum are extremely unlikely to bus - when there is another wagon on a townie of similar size, or very early (First 3 votes).
All these are subject to being given more or less credence due to context. Votal analysis isn’t a magic formula and more a system of detecting scum behavior which is likely to fall through the cracks otherwise, and to determine how your reads interact before players involved have flipped.
Actual Analysis
Assumptions: Myself and Jenna are Town.
shadowlancerx - 5 (DoTArchon, Vaimes, Voxxicus, osieorb18, Jenna) (L-2)
Had to make this one myself, up to #56.
Scum is at least one in {DoTA / Voxx / shadow}, I don't think any combinations are ruled out. I recall shadow suggesting it could be all Town, but I don't buy that - TubbaFett, Colin and King Torg could have all jumped on as it was forming, and there was no reason the wagon had to stop when Jenna voted, other players could have hopped on later. I've lost more EV by undertrusting votal analysis than overtrusting it. Former two not getting on looks bad for shadow.
“Preview” edit: Given what Pizza has done since I started working on this, I’m convinced Pizza is not scum unless DoTA is also scum. This implies either DoTA or shadow is scum. and if DoTA is Town so is Pizza.
Voxx vote would be more distancing than turbo-bussing, which seems off Voxx's scum MO.
I don't think Jenna is a wolf outside this but I will mention that I think Jenna/shadow is never w/w.
Hmm given the Voxx vs. shadow thing here, probably at least one of Voxx and shadow are Town. I don't see them attacking each other but making up and being best buddies this Day phase. (Although Voxx hasn't exactly given shadow glowing praise).
So that conclusion is: Voxx or Shadow is Town
DoTA wagon should be analyzed on how it grows, so I'll look at it later.
Wow this makes me mad at the Osie lynch all over again.
So one of DoTArchon/Tubba Fett/Killjoy is scum, but that’s more because they’re all scummy than votal analysis. What’s more interesting is that one or two of them is probably Town.
I don’t think DoTArchon/Tubba is w/w there. Tubba Fett/Killjoy looks less solid given that TubbaFett is being wagonned, so it might override the natural scum instinct to spread out.
Restating: One of DoTArchon/Tubba is Town.
King Torg / A Bear’s votes on DoTArchon are notable, since we know they’re counterwagonning a mislynch. I strongly doubt either is scum with DoTArchon, or scum with each other.
So either grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town
either DoTArchon or King Torg is Town
either grapefruit or King Torg is TownSee Votal 1.11 analysisThis votal is very interesting.
Note that King Torg has just moved from DoTA, breaking the 3-3-3 pattern.
From between when it was 3-3-3 with Osie’s vote on Bear and Torg breaking it, the following players posted:
Shadow
Killjoy
TubbaFett
(myself for completeness)
That implies these players didn’t really care which of {DotArchon/Osie/A Bear} got lynched. If any of these are scum, it’s probable they couldn’t move the lynch away from a scumbuddy in that list.
Shadow, TubbaFett, and Killjoy don’t make sense with DoTArchon or A Bear
King Torg’s vote there looks like a move to save Bear-slot. I went up and strikethough’d my original conclusion that King Torg / A Bear aren’t w/w, that’s enough to null it.
Only thing interesting that happens through EoD is shadow moving onto Bear and back off, I think have a much stronger shadow/grapefruit anti-align tell during Day 2 so I’m going to analyze that instead.
Shadow’s vote here is the opposite of King Torg, and had a decent chance of saving Osie.
Shadow or A Bear is Town
----------------
Colin also gets a massive reward of scumpoints for not voting /the entire Day phase/, which is both anti-Town and makes him hard to analyze with this method.
Normally I’d analyze the Osie wagon here, but I analyzed the beginning and don’t have enough townreads to derive info from the tail.
----------------
Day 2:
This implies anti-alignment between Grapefruit and DoTArchon and Killjoy/Grapefruit.
There’s a few reasons I don’t think Killjoy/DoTArchon have quite as a strong anti-alignment here, but given they’re already anti-aligned from the Vote Count 1.11 logic I don’t care to argue.
So:
either DoTArchon or Grapefruit is Town (again)
either Killjoy or Grapefruit is Town (again)
#508
Given Pizza’s massive walls on grapefruit, I have a hard time believing both are scum
So: either Pizza or Grapefruit is Town
Aggressive Worldbuilding:
I've found rather than trying to somehow sort premises based on reliability it's best to use them all and see what shakes out. Even if you've accidentally eliminated the actual team, I've found generally there's some sort of repeating pattern which is in the actual team.
Assembling all the conclusions together as premises:
Shadow wagon:
DoTA or shadow is scum.
if DoTA is Town so is Pizza
Votal 1.5:
Pizza or Shadow is Town
Votal 1.7:
DoTArchon or Tubba is Town.
Votal 1.8:
grapefruit or DoTArchon is Town (Also votal 2.3)
DoTArchon or Megiddo is Town
Votal 1.11:
Shadow or DoTA is Town
Shadow or grapefruit is Town (Also 1.12)
TubbaFett or DoTA is Town
TubbaFett or grapefruit is Town
Killjoy or DoTA is Town
Killjoy or grapefruit is Town (Also Votal 2.3)
#508:
Pizza or grapefruit is Town
Pretty nice. Most interesting thing is shadow wagon implies DoTA or shadow is scum, and Votal 1.11 implies one of them is Town, so we can break the worlds down into the mutually exclusive scum!DoTA and scum!shadow worlds.
Scum candidates outside DoTA/shadow are: TubbaFett, pizza, grapefruit, Megiddo, Colin, Killjoy
scum!DoTA:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Tubba, grapefruit, Mediggo, Killjoy
So if DoTA is scum, it’s only with DoTA/Colin/Pizza.
Scum!shadow:
Eliminated by anti-alignments:
Pizza, grapefruit.
So that’s a lot more flex, it’s
Shadow and any two of {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}. Writing them out:
Shadow/Tubba/Megiddo
Shadow/Tubba/Colin
Shadow/Tubba/Killjoy (This one is slightly odd due to Votal 1.7)
Shadow/Megiddo/Colin
Shadow/Megiddo/Killjoy
Shadow/Colin/Killjoy
Conclusions:
I want to investigate Shadow, but since he's active I'm not willing to turbo-lynch him. I don't want to lynch DoTA or grapefruit this Day phase. Best lynches are in {TubbaFett, Megiddo, Colin, Kiljoy}.
Sorting those by my regular reads, I'd put them TubbaFett < Killjoy < Colin < Megiddo. Probably need to re-ISO Megiddo
Vote: TubbaFett
Probably going to ISO Trog again. Not planning to re-iterate on DoTA since I've changed my mind there unless somebody asks me to.
--------------
@Megiddo Have you read the game yet? If not, when are you planning to finish that? Do you have any conclusions that aren't based on a single post?