Today I stumbled upon an interesting article (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/approximate-win-percentages-for-the-best-modern-decks/), which analyzes the match win percentage of modern decks at Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan. Being a statistician, I found it to be quite interesting. However, the truth is that while analyzing the pro tour results might give us some insight about which decks are good and which ones are bad, there is not enough data to say, with statistical significance, which decks are above the 50% win rate threshold and which ones are below. So, I figured that I could try to get a larger dataset myself. To this end, I put together a google spreadsheet in which match results will be written and win rates will be calculated. The spreadsheet is public, so that everyone can know the results. It'd be great if you could help out by filling out a simple form every time you play a modern game, and then the sheet will be automatically updated. My hope is that if this becomes popular enough, we will manage to actually know how the modern metagame looks like and what the best decks are.
Please just follow these three rules when filling out a form:
1. If you decide to participate by filling out forms after playing, please don't be selective on which results you upload. That is, please don't just register your wins (or just your losses), this would bias the entire analysis. Everything is completely anonymous, so no one will know if you lost!
2. Be honest: Sometimes we lose because we didn't draw a land for 10 turns in a row, or because of a silly mistake we made during the game. We might feel like "this loss should count as a win", but please don't register it as a win, this could also bias the analysis.
3. Let your opponent know that you will upload the results of your match. This will both help popularize this and avoid having duplicate entries for the same match.
Without further ado, here is the link you can use to fill out the form:
Some final notes:
-The main interest here is the modern metagame and its top contenders, so rogue deck entries are not allowed when filling out the form. You have to choose one of 30 decks from among all the tier 1 and tier 2 decks from MTG Salvation, which admittedly might be slightly outdated, plus a couple of decks that I thought should also be considered tier 1 or 2.
-When looking at the spreadsheet for a deck's win rate, make sure that the deck has enough matches played before actually trusting its win rate. The same goes for the 95% confidence upper and lower bounds for the win rate.
-I included p-values in the spreadsheet. If you don't know what those are, think of them as a measure of how much evidence there is that a deck's true win percentage is more than 50%. A p-value of 1 means there is no evidence whatsoever, while a p-value of 0 means you are absolutely certain.
-I included a couple questions in the form that I'm not using right now (date of match, if the game was online or in person and the exact score, not just who won) but that might be helpful in the future.
-#DIV/0! and #NUM entries in the spreadsheet are normal, it just means the matchup hasn't been played.
Suggestions are welcome, let me know what you think!
Today I stumbled upon an interesting article (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/approximate-win-percentages-for-the-best-modern-decks/), which analyzes the match win percentage of modern decks at Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan. Being a statistician, I found it to be quite interesting. However, the truth is that while analyzing the pro tour results might give us some insight about which decks are good and which ones are bad, there is not enough data to say, with statistical significance, which decks are above the 50% win rate threshold and which ones are below. So, I figured that I could try to get a larger dataset myself. To this end, I put together a google spreadsheet in which match results will be written and win rates will be calculated. The spreadsheet is public, so that everyone can know the results. It'd be great if you could help out by filling out a simple form every time you play a modern game, and then the sheet will be automatically updated. My hope is that if this becomes popular enough, we will manage to actually know how the modern metagame looks like and what the best decks are.
Please just follow these three rules when filling out a form:
1. If you decide to participate by filling out forms after playing, please don't be selective on which results you upload. That is, please don't just register your wins (or just your losses), this would bias the entire analysis. Everything is completely anonymous, so no one will know if you lost!
2. Be honest: Sometimes we lose because we didn't draw a land for 10 turns in a row, or because of a silly mistake we made during the game. We might feel like "this loss should count as a win", but please don't register it as a win, this could also bias the analysis.
3. Let your opponent know that you will upload the results of your match. This will both help popularize this and avoid having duplicate entries for the same match.
Without further ado, here is the link you can use to fill out the form:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1c7d1q4mO4uzHLKw4N7PTWJrB5XT4ofJjtYW6M5XaVIE
And here is the link were you can see the results on the spreadsheet:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1AeRNjmfxUlpFRFA2_Vutx3jmzjrG7UV69Zq8JxcFD_o
Some final notes:
-The main interest here is the modern metagame and its top contenders, so rogue deck entries are not allowed when filling out the form. You have to choose one of 30 decks from among all the tier 1 and tier 2 decks from MTG Salvation, which admittedly might be slightly outdated, plus a couple of decks that I thought should also be considered tier 1 or 2.
-When looking at the spreadsheet for a deck's win rate, make sure that the deck has enough matches played before actually trusting its win rate. The same goes for the 95% confidence upper and lower bounds for the win rate.
-I included p-values in the spreadsheet. If you don't know what those are, think of them as a measure of how much evidence there is that a deck's true win percentage is more than 50%. A p-value of 1 means there is no evidence whatsoever, while a p-value of 0 means you are absolutely certain.
-I included a couple questions in the form that I'm not using right now (date of match, if the game was online or in person and the exact score, not just who won) but that might be helpful in the future.
-#DIV/0! and #NUM entries in the spreadsheet are normal, it just means the matchup hasn't been played.
Suggestions are welcome, let me know what you think!