Totally agree on prioritizing pool charging, but if your opponent doesn't have some kind of graveyard hate going I think it's actually ok to freely cycle manamorphose (assuming you have at least one blue source in play, which you really should).
If you combo off on the standard "past in flame + 6 mana" timetable, you aren't going to be able to keep a blue floating when you hit the graveyard rituals anyway (and if you get to the six mana while leaving only blue sources untapped, manamorphose becomes irrelevant), and you should ultimately need only two more blue to flashback gifts and maybe remand your storm spell.
Maybe you need more if you want to use Noxious Revival and you're really worried about your life total or something, but that seems rare enough that you don't need to plan around it.
That unstable feeling is kind of what you sign up for with a tempo deck. If you counter the right spell at the right time you win. If you don't or can't, you lose.
While the nut draw plays out like an aggro deck, you should not be trying to force aggro when you don't have the nuts. In the mid game you should be holding up mana and countering opposing bombs and/or using trickster to fend off good attacks and/or opting end of turn.
If you just tap out to jam your guys then yeah, you'll pretty much get ranched by decks playing bigger and scarier creatures.
There are three paths to victory with this deck:
(1) Unchecked early Obsession takes over the game.
(2) Hold off the opponent and protect your Tempest Djinn while it wins the game.
(3) Scuffle to a tempo win without Djinn and without Obsession (or with Obsession coming very late).
The first group runs almost on autopilot. That last group only happens when you draw a ton of counters and the opposing draw is bad. The second group of wins are tricky but manageable if you're careful. Seriously, Djinn can win games you don't think it can win. Djinn + running Tricksters can flat out steal games. Don't just slam Djinns into counters or removal unless it's a desperate situation.
As much as I don't like haymaker magic, it's nice to have a five mana card that the opponent has to deal with or lose the game. The way he fuels our plan is absurd. Drawing cards, dumping stuff in the yard, and threatening ultimate. If he sticks for more than a couple of turns it's usually game over.
I have to admit that I was skeptical but trading off with the Phoenixes on defense worked surprisingly well.
Ral is a beast in this deck. I find myself bringing in the two from the sideboard in most matchups. I almost wonder if we want one in the main deck.
Completely fair criticism.
Although, to be fair, winning is usually more fun than losing.
I've run into the all in deck in the wild. It can do some busted things--a late game Drake into Maximize Velocity is brutal--but it seemed very swingy. I'm not sure what they're taking out to fit in the red cantrips but I felt like the deck from the original post was a little more consistent.
The one opponent that I find consistently tough is the white/boros weenie deck. Knight of Grace into History into History just buries us in knights. If we get the magical christmas land turn three multi-Phoenix then we can race them but otherwise it's pretty dire. Plus the only red sweeper is basically blanked by Benalish Marshal and Loxodon. I'm not really sure what to do about the matchup.
I find Golgari doesn't usually get on you as quickly, so as long as you are careful about not dumping Phoenix into the yard until you're ready to bring it back and you kill Scavengers on sight the matchup is reasonable. Not a slam dunk, but the games are at least close. White weenie seems to blow me out at least once per best of three.
As I have said in this thread, I personally have two competitive league 5-0 finishes with the deck. The same deck that has been putting a 5-0 finish up in every WotC release since rotation. The same deck with a top 8 in the SCG classic. Sure, theoretical magic.
If you drop Djinn on turn four with Dive Down and/or Stormtamer and/or Spell Pierce available, you should be able to fend off their attempts to deal with it. If you drop Djinn on turn three with no protection then you will lose a lot of games.
Strong disagree. I think you are badly underselling Tempest Djinn. Turn four djinn into swinging three times while everything else plays defense will win a lot of games. A second turn Steel-Leaf Champion is nearly unbeatable but anything else we have a fighting shot at tempoing out.
The deck mulligans well because of the nut draw but I think aggressively mulliganing for the nut draw costs you percentage points. It's fine even if the Djinn and Obsession don't show until turn four or five (which, of course, the opts and nightveil sprites make more likely). You should be winning your fair share of games even when you don't get the nuts.
Splashing white will cost you all of the games that you otherwise would have won with near-exactsies the turn before you died. In other words, a good chunk of your tempo wins. I also suspect you will lose more games because of the taplands than you will win because of the splash. Especially if you're trying to cast double white spells off of six white sources.
This 5-0 list from a competitive league looked to me like the most fun way to play Izzet:
4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Crackling Drake
4 Opt
4 Shock
4 Chart a Course
3 Lava Coil
4 Radical Idea
1 Beacon Bolt
2 Chemister's Insight
4 Discovery // Dispersal
1 Izzet Guildgate
6 Mountain
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
2 Banefire
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Negate
3 Fiery Cannonade
2 Fight with Fire
2 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Cool things about this deck:
(1) Everything in the deck is either letting you cheat on mana or drawing cards. It's beautiful.
(2) The deck has several different play modes. If you play a t2 electromancer and it lives you can go for the nutso rush and attack with multiple Arclight Phoenix on turn 3 (chart a course, discovery, chart a course -> go nuts). If you don't have the electromancer or it dies you can spend the early turns playing removal into a Crackling Drake turn 4 into a phoenix brigade on turn 5.
(3) You go through your deck fast. It makes the deck feel very consistent. Each game feels pretty similar, which is nice when you're winning.
(4) Your creatures hit hard and fast. Against aggro decks you play a controlling role but you turn the corner very quickly. Against control you are playing serious threats that are tough to deal with. You never feel flat out overpowered by your opponent's cards.
I'm not entirely sure about the sideboard strategy. I mostly didn't fiddle with the deck too much unless it was obvious (e.g. -Lava Coil against no-creature control). The main deck as it is lets you bring back the phoenix with surprising consistency.
If you want to give yourself the chance for a combo-kill while playing a fundamentally sound deck, I'd take it for a spin.
That deck seems underpowered. Thief of Sanity is cool and all, but in the time it takes to snowball into a big advantage (assuming it doesn't whiff) a Tempest Djinn just ends the game. The djinn can fight it out in the air and it dodges at least some removal (moment of craving/shock/bolt). When a 2/2 is the beefiest creature in your deck you're going to have trouble if things ever go off script.
It's also kind of funny to go into black and play Deep Freeze.
I'm hardly an expert, but I think I have some reasonable rules of thumb.
What to take out:
Dead Weight: when there are no good targets
Walk the Plank: when there are no good targets
Vicious Conquistador: when the opponent clogs the ground
Ruin Raider: when the opponent comes hard after your life total
You can also shave Ravenous Chupacabra if the opponent looks truly creature free.
What to put in:
Duress: against control decks
Vraska's Contempt: when you need to kill planeswalkers (e.g. against control and BG)
Dread Shade: when you need to replace Orc Bob with a fattie (e.g. against red or white aggro)
Plague Mare: when you need to replace Orc Bob with a chainwhirler effect (e.g. against tokens)
Also, there are a lot of merfolk running around these days in mono-blue and in BG. Some number (maybe all) of the Walk the Plank should probably become Cast Down.
Same list as last time.
4 Mist-cloaked Herald
4 Siren Stormtamer
4 Nightveil Sprite
4 Merfolk Trickster
4 Tempest Djinn
4 Opt
4 Dive Down
4 Spell Pierce
4 Wizard's Retort
4 Surge Mare
2 Negate
2 Essence Scatter
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Blink of an Eye
2 Exclusion Mage
1 Time of Ice
Match one: Sultai Control (2-1)
My T1: island, stormtamer
Opp T1: overgrown tomb, tapped
My T2: draw pierce, play island, herald, attack with stormtamer
Opp T2: swamp, discovery, bins disinfo campaign and vraska's contempt
My T3: draw djinn, obsession herald, attack with all, draw opt
Opp T3: swamp, Golden Demise that I spell pierce
My T4: draw island, play the island, attack with all, draw obsession and play obsession
Opp T4: dead weight on stormtamer, overgrown tomb tapped; I opt end of turn, he trophies in response, I dive down; opt puts opt to the bottom and draws retort
My T5: draw dive down, attack with herald, draw obsession and djinn
Opp T5: discovery binning discovery
My T6: draw pierce, attack with herald, pierce his trophy, draw trickster and stormtamer, discard djinn to hand size
Opp T6: watery grave untapped (down to 5), disinformation campaign (I discard trickster)
My T7: draw opt, swing, draw stormtamer and djinn, pass and discard djinn and stormtamer to hand size
Opp T7: passes
My T8: draw herald, swing, spell pierce for dispersal, gg
Sideboard: -2 sprite, -2 opt, +2 negate, +2 disdainful stroke
Keep five: island, island, island, trickster, djinn
Scry retort to the top
Opp T1: swamp
My T1: draw retort, play island
Opp T2: overgrown tomb, tapped
My T2: draw djinn, play island
Opp T3: drowned catacombs, disinfo campaign (discard djinn), I flash in trickster eot
My T3: draw dive down, play island, swing
Opp T4: woodland cemetary
My T4: draw island, play island, swing, atrophy on trickster resolves, djinn
Opp T5: ritual of soot
This basically decided the game. I drew pretty well and fought it out, but I couldn't get over the hump. With the disinfo campaign going I felt I had to counter everything with surveil and it was just too much.
What I learned from this was that the opponent's whole deck was removal and card draw, with Nightveil Predators as his wincons and Find/Finality to recycle predators or sweep as needed.
I wound up conceding on Turn 32, but I was probably down to no outs after he played Find into double Nightveil Predator on turn 26.
Sideboard adjustment: -2 pierce, +2 essence scatter
My T1: play island, stormtamer
Opp T1: overgrown tomb, tapped
My T2: draw obsession, play island, attack
Opp T2: forest
My T3: draw retort, play island, attack; eot opponent plays moment of craving, I use stormtamer's ability to deny the life gain
Opp T3: swamp
My T4: draw negate
Opp T4: drowned catacomb
My T5: draw dive down
Opp T5: draw-go
My T6: draw herald, play herald; eot opponent hits it with moment of craving
Opp T6: thought erasure, I negate
My T7: draw obsession (hand is 3x obsession, essence scatter, retort, negate, dive down)
Opp T7: woodland cemetary
My T8: draw island, play island
Opp T8: draw-go
My T9: draw island, play island
Opp T9: hinterland harbor, nightveil predator, I essence scatter
My T10: draw island, play island
Opp T10: disinformation campaign, I negate
My T11: draw island, play island (up to seven, I try to tell my deck that's enough)
Opp T11: swamp
My T12: draw djinn, play djinn; opponent eot trophies, I dive down, he trophies again, I let it go
Opp T12: draw-go
My T13: draw dive down
Opp T13: swamp
My T14: draw stormtamer, play stormtamer
Opp T14: thought erasure, I counter with stormtamer (really want to hold retort for now)
My T15: draw trickster, pass
Opp T15: overgrown tomb, tapped; I play trickster eot
My T16: draw island, island, obsession on trickster, opponent plays contempt, I dive down, he trophies, I retort; two more obsessions go on the trickster, who swings for five; I draw trickster, obsession, disdainful stroke
Opp T16: overgrown tomb untapped, find for nightveil predator, nightveil predator, I disdainful stroke it
My T17: draw island, island (up to 10), swing; draw stormtamer, herald, dive down; play stormtamer
Opp T17: find for predator, casts predator; I eot trickster
My T18: draw herald, swing with everybody, predator trades with big trickster, he's down to 5; play herald
Opp T18: thought erasure, I counter with stormtamer; golden demise, I play dive down on herald (opp at one card)
My T19: draw island, obsession on herald, swing for two, draw and play djinn
Opp T19: ritual of soot
My T20: draw dive down, play herald
Opp T20: cast down on herald, I dive down
My T21: draw essence scatter, swing for one (opp at two)
Opp T21: Nightveil Predator, I essence scatter
My T22: draw island, island, swing for one
Opp T22: watery grave, tapped
My T23: draw island, swing for one, gg
This was an insanely grindy matchup. For me it really illustrated how we don't mind the game going long just as long as there's no Niv-Mizzet coming down later.
I had to consciously remind myself that it was fine to play to win on turn twenty. As long as they don't have a card advantage engine going our average topdeck is just as good as theirs. Just keep the bombs off the table and keep sculpting the situation until you can land two hits in a row with Curious Obsession.
Also, don't spend your good counters lightly. It's fine to let a creature die if that's what you have to do to keep the counter shields up against whatever your opponent wants to do on their turn. Related point: don't commit to a Curious Obsession that will leave you completely tapped out even if you win the counter war. Wait until you know you can get the hit in and pass with untapped islands.
Round two: White weenie (2-1)
This was a greedy keep. My thinking was that the hand could become insane very easily. If I don't draw islands I should be able to at least cycle one obsession. Still, greedy.
Opp T1: plains, skymarcher aspirant (me: uh-oh)
My T1: draw spell pierce, play island, stormtamer
Opp T2: plains, attacks, I take two
My T2: draw nightveil sprite, obsession on stormtamer, swing, draw island, play island
Opp T3: plains, Benalish Marshal, swing for three
My T3: draw stormtamer, attack, draw opt; opt shows an island, which I draw and play
Opp T4: beginning of combat I trickster on Marshal; opp attacks with skymarcher and I snap off the trade; post combat he plays plains and history of benalia
My T4: draw djinn, swing with stormtamer, draw island, play island and djinn
Opp T5: plains, history of benalia; I spell pierce just to make him tap out; no attacks
My T5: draw retort, obsession on stormtamer, swing with both (opp takes seven to go to 7), draw island and opt; play island, opt bottoms djinn and draws opt, play stormtamer and sprite
Opp T6: history ultimates, I double chump his attackers to survive at 5, opponent scoops
This was a very tempo game. Dig in and survive then get across the finish line just before you die.
Sideboarding: -2 pierce, -2 opt, -2 sprite, -1 dive down, +1 time of ice, +2 essence scatter, +2 exclusion mage, +2 surge mare
Opp T1: plains, aspirant
My T1: draw herald, play island, herald
Opp T2: attack with aspirant, I trade; plains, knight of grace
My T2: draw herald, play island, herald
Opp T3: plains, benalish marshal, attack, I take 3 (where is the t3 history of benalia?)
My T3: draw retort, island, surge mare, attack with herald
Opp T4: plains, benalish marshal, attack with the team, mare blocks one, I take 4
My T4: draw obsession, obsession on herald, attack, draw island, play island
Opp T5: attack with the team, mare blocks, I take 8 down to 5; post combat plains, knight of grace, I retort it
My T5: draw exclusion mage; attack, draw island; play island, exclusion mage, bouncing marshal
Opp T6: marshal (I retort it), attack, mare blocks, I take 3 down to 2; post combat opponent plays plains and history of benalia to go hellbent
My T6: draw trickster, attack, draw island; play island, pass (opp at 13, me at 2)
Opp T7: dauntless bodyguard on marshal, attacks with all; trickster shuts off marshal, mare blocks knight of grace, trickster blocks knight token, exclusion mage chumps marshal; dive down saves the trickster and pumping surge mare takes out knight of grace
Opponent now has marshal, bodyguard, knight token, and history about to ultimate; I have mare, herald, and trickster; opponent is hellbent and I have a dead spell pierce in hand
My T7: draw djinn, attack with herald, draw island; island, djinn, go
Opp T8: history ultimates, opp plays dauntless bodyguard on marshal, attacks with the team; djinn trades with bodyguard, mare double pumps to trade with the token, and trickster chumps
My T8: draw mare, attack, draw opt, opt sends island to the bottom and draws island, I scoop
I could have stayed back with the herald to trade with his team, but I don't like my odds in a topdeck war when I'm at 2. If I find another blocker there I think I'm favored, but sometimes it doesn't work out.
Sideboard adjustment: -2 pierce, -1 dive down, +1 mare, +2 blink of an eye
My T1: play island
Opp T1: plains, hunted witness
My T2: draw island, play island
Opp T2: plains, knight of grace; I play eot trickster (opp played around by not attacking)
My T3: draw island, play island, djinn
Opp T3: plains, history of benalia (he did an excellent job playing around spell pierce all match)
My T4: draw sprite, obsession on djinn, swing, draw dive down, pass
Opp T4: attack with knight and knight token, trickster trades with token; postcombat legion's landing, skymarcher, I retort skymarcher, venerated loxodon
Opponent now has: 2/2 witness, 2/2 knight of grace, 4/4 loxodon, 3/3 knight token, 2/2 vampire token
I have: djinn with obsession
Life is Opp 10, me 18
My T5: draw Time of Ice, swing, draw Djinn, play Time of Ice to tap knight token
Opp T5: history ultimates, attacks me down to 6 (he's up to 12), flips adanto, plays knight of grace
My T6: draw obsession, Time of Ice hits loxodon; swing with djinn, draw island, play island, mare, sprite; opp makes a token
Opp T6: attacks with all; mare blocks knight of grace, sprite chumps knight of grace, I go to 1; post-combat knight of grace
My T7: Time of Ice ultimates and bounces his team (opp will have two attackers: knight of grace and new token); draw djinn, obsession djinn, swing, draw island, stormtamer; play island, djinn, stormtamer
Opp T7: scoops
Time of Ice really came up huge. I had to take a calculated risk that put me dead to a pump spell; absent a Marshal or Pride of Conquerors he was locked out once Time of Ice hit.
This match featured three close games against an opponent who knew what he was doing and who seemed to have some decent draws to work with. The lesson I took from it is to trust the deck and don't panic. If you can get an evasive guy going with curious obsession then you'll probably be able to gum up the ground and have a shot at winning the game. The lack of reach means that you can do the math and figure out what you need to do to survive, although you need to keep an eye on the possibility of a mass pump effect. Definitely not a matchup you can sleepwalk through.
Match three: Gruul Frenzy (2-0)
My T1: play island, stormtamer
Opp T1: forest, llanowar elves
My T2: draw retort, play island, swing
Opp T2: mountain, Wayward Swordtooth, I retort it
My T3: draw trickster, play island, attack
Opp T3: forest, kraul harpooner, I retort; second harpooner resolves--opp misclicks and doesn't kill stormtamer; opt puts sprite to the bottom and draws island
My T4: draw stormtamer, play island
Opp T4: treasure map, treasure map, attack; trickster trades with harpooner and second trickster comes down eot
My T5: draw herald, attack for 3 down to 15, play herald and stormtamer
I'm hellbent, opponent has two cards in hand; board is elf and two treasure maps against herald, 2x stormtamer, and trickster
Opp T5: upkeep 2x scry to bottom, rootbound crag, jadelight ranger; ranger bins a frenzy and draws a mountain
My T6: draw spell pierce, swing with the team, opponent takes it down to 10
Opp T6: upkeep 2x scry to bottom, mountain, Experimental Frenzy into a spell pierce, attacks with ranger
My T7: draw opt, opt into obsession and draw it, obsession on herald and swing with the team, draw herald
Opp T7: upkeep 2x scry to bottom, scoops
Clutch spell pierce draw really saved the day in this game. Not too much else to say. This was a rare no-djinn win against a non-control deck. Very nearly a no-djinn no obsession win.
Sideboard: -4 sprite, -2 opt, -2 spell pierce, +3 surge mare, +2 essence scatter, +2 disdainful stroke, +1 time of ice
Opp T1: rootbound crag
My T1: draw island, play island
Opp T2: forest
My T2: draw dive down, play island
Opp T3: forest, steel leaf champion, I essence scatter
My T3: draw surge mare, play island, surge mare
Opp T4: forest
My T4: draw island, play island, obsession on mare, attack; draw stormtamer, herald, discard stormtamer, play herald
Opp T5: mountain, swordtooth, forest
My T5: draw stormtamer, play island, attack, opp fiery cannonades, I spell pierce; draw wizard's retort, time of ice, discard stormtamer
Hand is now 2x dive down, retort, time of ice
Opp T6: harpooner (lol), ghalta, I retort the ghalta
My T6: draw retort, attack, draw island, trickster, discard dive down, play island
Opp T7: ghalta, I play trickster and retort; treasure map resolves
My T7: draw island, play island, attack, draw opt + island, discard island, play time of ice (swordtooth first)
Opp T8: harpooner, I opt, bottom herald and draw disdainful stroke
My T8: draw trickster, tap harpooner with ToI, attack with all; harpooner trades with trickster, double pump on mare hits opp to 5; draw obsession + stormtamer, discard obsession
Opp T9: scry, scoop
Surge Mare was an mvp in this one. Every turn I got to draw twice and then loot. Then once I had enough land in play it started hitting for five. Again, no djinn, no problem.
This matchup seems very favorable. They are trying to ramp into a big spell, while we play counterspells. As long as they don't hit a quick Carnage Tyrant we ought to be able to keep their bombs from landing.
Surge Mare coming in for Nightveil Sprite is mandatory in harpooner matchups. You might not want to bring in all four since only one can really attack at a time, but boy it makes harpooner look silly when you're giving them the business with Heralds and Mares.
Match four: White weenie (2-0)
Keep six: island, island, trickster, retort, dive down, spell pierce
Scry island to the bottom.
Opp T1: plains, witness
My T1: draw retort, play island
Opp T2: plains, knight of grace, attack
My T2: draw island, play island
Opp T3: attacks with all, I trickster and eat the witness; post combat remorseful cleric
My T3: draw obsession, play island, obsession on trickster, attack; opponent takes it and I draw opt
My plan here is to force the opponent to combo block the trickster; ideally I'll be able to use dive down for max value, but at the minimum it should clear the board a bit.
Opp T4: dauntless bodyguard (I retort it), skymarcher aspirant, attacks for four to knock me to 13
This seems crazy aggressive to me; he must really not like his chances of killing the trickster.
My T4: draw island, attack, draw stormtamer; play island, stormtamer
Opp T5: plains, history of benalia (I spell pierce); attacks with all, I block cleric and use dive down to save stormtamer; end of turn opt shows trickster, which I keep
At this point opponent has three plains, aspirant, knight of grace, and two cards in hand; I have four islands, trickster, obsession, and stormtamer in play, with retort and trickster in hand; life is 14 for opponent to 9 for me
My T5: draw spell pierce, attack with trickster, draw island, play island
Opp T6: plains, attacks with all; trickster comes down and trades with Knight, stormtamer trades with aspirant; post combat opp plays conclave tribunal, which I spell pierce
My T6: draw djinn, attack, draw opt, play djinn
Opp T7: history of benalia, I retort, opponent scoops
Game two: Opponent kept a one lander, got stuck on one land for a while then stuck on two and I just run him over.
A happy reminder that sometimes the opponent stumbles and you get free wins.
Match five: Gruul Dinosaur frenzy
Keep six: island, island, opt, stormtamer, pierce, dive down
Scry trickster on top.
My T1: play island, stormtamer
Opp T1: forest
My T2: draw trickster, play island, attack
Opp T2: rootbound crag, treasure map, I trickster
Possible I should have spell pierced, but I want to pressure and I kind of want to save the pierce for the experimental frenzy I expect him to play.
My T3: draw obsession, obsession on sprite, swing with both; draw herald
Opp T3: forest, swordtooth, mountain
I tap out to opt eot, find and keep an island; this doesn't feel like a deck that plays shock to me. It's possible I shouldn't have risked it.
My T4: draw island, play island, swing (opp to 11), draw stormtamer, play herald, stormtamer; opp scrys eot to the bottom
Opp T4: forest, regisaur alpha (surprised the hell out of me), attacks for 3 with the token.
He's still one permanent short of the city's blessing so the swordtooth is stuck.
My T5: draw stormtamer, play island, attack with herald and stormtamers, draw retort, play stormtamer
Opp T5: branchwalker (I retort), attack with token, I take it to 14
My T6: draw obsession, suit up stormtamer, attack with 2x stormtamer plus herald to knock opp to 2, draw 2xisland, play island; eot opp scrys to the bottom
This was a mistake. I should have suited up the herald. I had a lot of protection but he still could have had a harpooner and made my life difficult.
Opp T6: upkeep scry to the bottom, flips map, casts carnage tyrant and swings with the team; trickster chumps swordtooth, siren chumps alpha, I go to 4, gg
Sideboard: -4 sprite, -3 spell pierce, -2 dive down, -2 opt; +4 surge mare, +2 exclusion mage, +2 essence scatter, +2 disdainful stroke, +1 time of ice
Opp T1: mountain
My T1: draw dive down, play island, stormtamer
Opp T2: forest, lava coil on stormtamer
My T2: draw dive down, play island, surge mare
Opp T3: forest, thunderherd migration for a mountain
My T3: draw island, play island
Opp T4: forest, llanowar elves, llanowar elves; I eot a trickster
My T4: draw island, play island, attack with trickster and mare, pump mare, draw island, discard island; opponent EOT fiery cannonades, I let it go.
Not sure why he ran the elves out there if he was going to cannonade.
Opponent has five lands with one card in hand. I have surge mare and four islands in play; in hand I have disdainful stroke, 2x dive down, and island; Life total is 20 for me to 16 for opponent.
Opp T5: experimental frenzy, I disdainful stroke it, llanowar elf
My T5: draw island, attack with mare and pump it, draw retort, discard island, play island
Opp T6: thunderherd migration, swing with elf
Opponent starts getting salty in chat about my "perfect draws." I think it's sort of a fair complaint re: the first game, but in the second game he's played one relevant spell that I countered and also cannonaded two of his own elves, so whatever. Opponent is also ready to concede at this point, but honestly I'm still nervous about running carnage tyrants.
My T6: draw stormtamer, swing and pump with surge mare, draw herald, discard dive down
Opp T7: Commune with dinosaurs, finds a mountain, concedes.
I probably should have countered the commune just to ward off potential carnage tyrant action.
This was the rare game with no curious obsession and no tempest djinn that was still an easy win. Surge Mare gives green decks fits and countermagic is good against people relying on 4+ mana bombs to win.
Control decks beat ramp decks. It was true when my Force of Nature was eating a Mana Drain. It was true back when they were vapor snagging my wolf run target. It's still true today. Everybody on mono blue should hope and pray that Gruul Frenzy takes over the standard metagame.
I like the Golgari matchup, but it was refreshing to play a Golgari-free tournament. I find dodging the red aggro decks really helps my 5-0 chances. I think we're helped a lot right now by Golgari hating red aggro and Niv-Mizzet out of the meta.
With regard to the enchantments, sometimes things don't work out as planned. Having the option to end of turn bounce your tribunal, draw a card, untap, attack with the djinn, counter tribunal on the way back down can be a nice way to get your game back on track. Mostly it's there for that matchup to hit Benalish Marshal at instant speed, of course. Just, if the question is "do other modes come up" the answer is "yes, sometimes."
Blink of an Eye mostly hits creatures. It gets some bonus utility against the white beatdown decks bouncing Conclave Tribunal or Ixalan's Binding. It's also an emergency out against planeswalkers, although between our flyers and countermagic that usually doesn't come up. The card draw can be pretty nice. It's not exactly exciting against Niv-Mizzet but it buys a turn at least.
Metamorphic Alteration just feels too cute. The worst games for me with Niv-Mizzet are the ones where I'm dominating the board and holding two counterspells but just die to the dragon. Deep Freeze would let me keep rolling. If it's just anti-Niv-Mizzet tech then I feel like the CMC isn't a huge deal. The blocking could be annoying, for sure.
I agree that the current build is near optimal. I like it a lot. I just remember that last standard would see the occasional 5-0 from a pure Favorable Winds deck but everybody ignored it.
The big reason not to go all in on the big guy is that BG runs approximately a million ways to deal with him game one (Chupacabra, Vivien Reed, Vraska's Contempt, Trophy, sometimes Harpooner) and BG is a big chunk of the meta right now. Pascal Maynard's recent Grixis Dragons video on CFB shows the car wreck that happens when you build around NM and get paired with BG.