Weirdly if you guys'd listened to the hydra you'd have had us cold. KK was completely correct in their read and was on me the whole time.
I'm glad it was the right decision not to shoot, though. This setup felt like big gambits were really rewarded since there wasn't many ways mechanically that we could be discovered.
Last and Tom were correctly on me almost all day 1.
Killjoy we felt was the most townie of all - his analysis was great - he just happened to Townread me with vezok all of day 1 and didn't ever really question those reads. We were super stoked when his going after Tom put him in the firing line instead of me.
Grape, you were such a joy to play with. We bounced off each other super well and 10/10 would scum slam again. There's been a lot of needless aggressiveness on mtgs mafia games lately and playing with you was just a treat and a privilege. <3
sure but his posts were all ass... shouldve kept on ur ass when you claimed messenger and didnt message... haha
LOL
When Kami and I were talking about this, I was pushing super hard on Wuffles day 1. Our posts became none existent because of offline stuff and both of had talked and just assumed the other was somewhat making posts on it. Everything about the behavior was typical "sh!t stirring" that I would have wanted to call out hard core as Scummy... I feel kinda good in the fact that my day 1 hard reads on Scum in both games I've played on this site have been spot on. I gotta figure out a way to word my arguments better cause this is the second game where I pushed hard on someone only to get it overturned by everyone else later going: "Naah... There's no way this is Scum" only to be vindicated after a loss. Well done Wuffles/Grape. Good on you guys! Sad it ended so quickly, but it was fun none the less.
Sure, but if you listen to Tom in that line, it's still a very heavy focus target on us. He's pushing very hard for it because us being bulletproof means that we have to be lynched so that the bulletproof target slips away before the night time. The more I look at this, the more it just seems like Tom's sudden evaluation shift to the likelihood on us is switching over to try and remove a town who has analytically broken down the teams pretty succinctly. My distaste for Tom has gone up by a ton... but I know how OMGUS that looks. Honestly, I think missing the Tom Lynch is actually a huge misplay that we should have caught. Opportunity missed for having Last on this side might have passed, but legitimately Tom's split of picking us as an easy target because of the suspicion that our Inactivity sparked just seems like an easy way for him to try to dodge the target again. Either way... If it comes to Lynch, I think Kami did his part in putting our thoughts together so... When/if you lynch us and find us out to be town, choose your protect/jail targets carefully or Day 3 is going to result in 2 dead town.
So the theory for a me/vezok team is we both decided not to use our thief and redirect to instead claim in such a way that the other is half outed when the other flips?
Nope. You have an avenue to deniability. Vezok flips, you say "oh, he must have redirected Grape." You flip, Vezok says, "Oh, he confirmed my doc action for town cred." Without the rest of the game solution, it's a perfectly reasonable scum plan.
Because once we claim watcher and doc we can never use the scum side of the coin.
You can use the scum side just fine, so long as either (1) the target isn't notified or (2) the target is also NKed or (3) you win anyway. I'm guessing (1), because the last osie game had redirects not informing the target they were redirected.
Also, one of you could be the Roleblocker - it doesn't have to be Redirector & Thief. I'm guessing this is actually a minor slip that confirms Redirector/Thief is the actual combination.
CLAIMS:
Wuffles - Messenger (confirmed did not perform the kill)
Wisp - Tracker (confirmed by knowing I did not perform an action last night and by Osie's screwup)
Grape - Jailkeeper (confirmed by KJ)
Killjoy - Purveyor of baked goods (unconfirmed)
Vezok - Doctor/super low chance of Redirector (confirmed targeted Grape - could only have redirected, not killed)
Tom - Watcher (pretty much confirmed by his knowing Vezok didn't save anyone, unless anyone thinks otherwise )
We are Bulletproof. We are still Bulletproof - we were not shot last night.
We are considering Last to be mod-confirmed.
I’m going to review the possible scenarios and who can be lying.
No NK. How? Four options:
1. Doctor protected the target.
2. Jailer jailed the source.
3. Jailer jailed the target.
4. Mafia intentionally no-killed.
1 means there is a doc. If it wasn’t vezok, he’d have been cc’ed. So it’s vezok, which means vezok is telling the truth. That means grape was the target, so grape is cleared. That means KJ was jailed, so wasn’t the NK origin (this scenario presumes it was specifically the doc that stopped the shot, not the jail). And Wuffles isn’t the NK origin. That leaves only Tom as the possible NK origin. So in scenario 1, the team is Tom + one of Wuffles or KJ.
2 means Grape is clear and KJ is the scum that fired. Could vezok be scum here? He must have targeted Grape, because he and Tom can’t both be scum. He could only be redirector, and that means he would have redirected Grape to KJ, knowing that KJ is firing a kill, and without knowing Grape’s role. Given the potential existence of both Jailer and Tracker, that’s a very high risk action that doesn’t really make sense. So Vezok is likely clear. Last scum could be in Tom, Wuffles.
3 means Grape is still clear, but here KJ is clear, as he was the target of the kill. Now Vezok and Tom could be scum together, meaning there’s no confirmation of Vezok’s target. What happens if Wuffles is scum? Then one of Vezok/Tom must be town. If Tom is town, then Vezok is confirmed to have targeted Grape, and there’s no one who could have shot KJ. So Wuffles+Vezok is impossible here. Wuffles+Tom or Tom+Vezok is possible.
4 is interesting, as it gives the least certainty. Mafia choosing to NK bypasses all the protective and informative roles. This option can only be analyzed from the view of “why would they do this?”. I think the only possible reason is to try to falseclaim a protective role in an attempt to get cleared. This means at least one of Vezok and Grape are scum. We know Grape is the real jailer unless exactly scum with KJ. Grape and Vezok being scum together? Tom is town, confirms Vezok targeting Grape, Vezok must be redirector, so Vezok is redirecting his own scumbuddy? Doesn’t make sense. So not Grape+Vezok. Unfortunately I can’t come up with a lot of other solutions to this scenario. Vezok could be scum here with KJ, Tom, or Wuffles. So could Grape.
So:
Tom + either Wuffles or KJ
KJ + either Tom or Wuffles
Tom + Wuffles or Vezok
One of (KJ, Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok)
That’s all mechanics. Now, behavior.
I strongly doubt that KJ is scum. Especially after the last page’s events. I’m at L-1 and an easy lynch; yet here is KJ pulling off me and looking at tom. I believe scum!KJ could have even gotten away with hammering before I posted.
This removes option 2 completely; turns option 1 into Tom + Wuffles, and leaves 3 unchanged.
I don’t think in this setup, Wuffles busses this hard. It’s a conceivable gambit, but I don’t think they run it. It’s just too dangerous.
This kills option 1, and leaves option 3 as Tom + Vezok.
Option 4 is still open and is (Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok). But it’s also quite risky. I don’t think that mafia need to no-kill in this setup. It gives us too much time; consider that even if we mislynch today, we are still basically on a “day 2” in terms of deaths but with an extra full day of mechanical info.
In conclusion: Tom + Vezok is the scumteam I’m most comfortable with.
Now obviously, this analysis is assuming information that only we know, and it's not a simple from anyone else's perspective. Knowing that we are bulletproof and *didn't* get shot actually simplified analysis a fair bit, which you all can't assume, and we have no way of proving it. So you all need to make your own decisions. If you do choose to lynch us, please review this analysis tomorrow.
I'm trying to get all the way caught up so I'll have a more detailed analysis of behavior after reading through this in full. I wanted to toss an apology to everyone in general about my lack of activity. I've had talks with Kami between my own posts, but my wife went in for surgery and it took more out of her than we'd expected so a giant portion of my time has been dedicated to tending to her. So... that said: my reviews so far are cursory.
I've only had the chance to review things since about page six of posting and picked up some stuff. The things currently floating in my head and that I wanna put out for consideration.
1) So, I know that in this one that Scum can communicate, and what the missing role would be, so Vezok claiming doc and not doing a night kill night 1 could be that kind of a gamble. Or it could mean that he's actually a doc this game.
2) I think Vezok in general is a good enough player to make a gambit of skipping a night 1 clear to claim doc this early and clear himself and/or grape in the process.
3) Wuffles felt under heavy suspicion day 1. They might have forgone a night kill on the first day to play to the Vezok/Wuffles scum team being so heavily under suspicion.
This is speculation so far, but I wanted to put something out to the board before more time of inactivity passed.
Hot take says: Wuffles as a scum Messenger; under pressure, expected a track/watch to be likely; used Message specifically to try to get town cred from KJ and/or informative roles.
Currently thinking: does vezok come out as doc this early, with no deaths? It could be a clear on grape, but it is not a certain clear by any means, with multiple other protective roles. Is Vezok the kind of player to run out that risk, or is this a gambit? Evaluating.
Nothing of consequence has happened since our last post. Opinion on Wuffles unchanged. Feeling perhaps a slight buddying to Killjoy, so maybe a town indicator for KJ on a scum Wuffles flip, but that's a minor factor.
Kami, explain to me how you're okay with the person that tried to have someone lynched after 20 posts (when they'd only posted once) and then refused to explain their reasoning.
I (Kami-head) have personally done that before as town. I like fast wagons Day 1. If I could get every D1 to end within 100 posts, I would. I dream of having a daykill so that I can blast someone during RVS.
Day 1 analysis is overrated. We're all (well, except for whoever is scum) mostly flailing around Day 1. We're not even sure about you; we just like your flailing less than we like tom's.
So. Both of us have been unexpectedly very busy with work and other things, so our activity was much lower than we had hoped. Again, apologies for that.
This thread is not giving me any particularly strong reads. Too many people are making weak arguments; they can't all be scum trying to mislead, and the weakness means there's no leader for me to follow. At the same time, there are no clear scum slips, contradictions, or other powerful tells.
I think I have a town KJ read because it's the best of the analyses.
I don't think Last is going to be so chaotic as scum. I could be proven wrong, but if so, that's just good scum play.
Of the arguments presented, I've disliked Wuffles' Tom push the most. It feels disingenuous. It feels like he's trying too hard to convince us that he really has a tom scumread. Note the subtle distinction between that and "convince us tom is scum", which is something a townie does.
LOL
When Kami and I were talking about this, I was pushing super hard on Wuffles day 1. Our posts became none existent because of offline stuff and both of had talked and just assumed the other was somewhat making posts on it. Everything about the behavior was typical "sh!t stirring" that I would have wanted to call out hard core as Scummy... I feel kinda good in the fact that my day 1 hard reads on Scum in both games I've played on this site have been spot on. I gotta figure out a way to word my arguments better cause this is the second game where I pushed hard on someone only to get it overturned by everyone else later going: "Naah... There's no way this is Scum" only to be vindicated after a loss. Well done Wuffles/Grape. Good on you guys! Sad it ended so quickly, but it was fun none the less.
- Kazin
- Kazin
You can use the scum side just fine, so long as either (1) the target isn't notified or (2) the target is also NKed or (3) you win anyway. I'm guessing (1), because the last osie game had redirects not informing the target they were redirected.
Also, one of you could be the Roleblocker - it doesn't have to be Redirector & Thief. I'm guessing this is actually a minor slip that confirms Redirector/Thief is the actual combination.
- Kami
Am not sure if this is Tom being silly, or a very subtle way of trying to get a no vote from Last... Hmmmmmmm....
-Kazin
vote tomsloger
We are Bulletproof. We are still Bulletproof - we were not shot last night.
We are considering Last to be mod-confirmed.
I’m going to review the possible scenarios and who can be lying.
No NK. How? Four options:
1. Doctor protected the target.
2. Jailer jailed the source.
3. Jailer jailed the target.
4. Mafia intentionally no-killed.
1 means there is a doc. If it wasn’t vezok, he’d have been cc’ed. So it’s vezok, which means vezok is telling the truth. That means grape was the target, so grape is cleared. That means KJ was jailed, so wasn’t the NK origin (this scenario presumes it was specifically the doc that stopped the shot, not the jail). And Wuffles isn’t the NK origin. That leaves only Tom as the possible NK origin. So in scenario 1, the team is Tom + one of Wuffles or KJ.
2 means Grape is clear and KJ is the scum that fired. Could vezok be scum here? He must have targeted Grape, because he and Tom can’t both be scum. He could only be redirector, and that means he would have redirected Grape to KJ, knowing that KJ is firing a kill, and without knowing Grape’s role. Given the potential existence of both Jailer and Tracker, that’s a very high risk action that doesn’t really make sense. So Vezok is likely clear. Last scum could be in Tom, Wuffles.
3 means Grape is still clear, but here KJ is clear, as he was the target of the kill. Now Vezok and Tom could be scum together, meaning there’s no confirmation of Vezok’s target. What happens if Wuffles is scum? Then one of Vezok/Tom must be town. If Tom is town, then Vezok is confirmed to have targeted Grape, and there’s no one who could have shot KJ. So Wuffles+Vezok is impossible here. Wuffles+Tom or Tom+Vezok is possible.
4 is interesting, as it gives the least certainty. Mafia choosing to NK bypasses all the protective and informative roles. This option can only be analyzed from the view of “why would they do this?”. I think the only possible reason is to try to falseclaim a protective role in an attempt to get cleared. This means at least one of Vezok and Grape are scum. We know Grape is the real jailer unless exactly scum with KJ. Grape and Vezok being scum together? Tom is town, confirms Vezok targeting Grape, Vezok must be redirector, so Vezok is redirecting his own scumbuddy? Doesn’t make sense. So not Grape+Vezok. Unfortunately I can’t come up with a lot of other solutions to this scenario. Vezok could be scum here with KJ, Tom, or Wuffles. So could Grape.
So:
Tom + either Wuffles or KJ
KJ + either Tom or Wuffles
Tom + Wuffles or Vezok
One of (KJ, Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok)
That’s all mechanics. Now, behavior.
I strongly doubt that KJ is scum. Especially after the last page’s events. I’m at L-1 and an easy lynch; yet here is KJ pulling off me and looking at tom. I believe scum!KJ could have even gotten away with hammering before I posted.
This removes option 2 completely; turns option 1 into Tom + Wuffles, and leaves 3 unchanged.
I don’t think in this setup, Wuffles busses this hard. It’s a conceivable gambit, but I don’t think they run it. It’s just too dangerous.
This kills option 1, and leaves option 3 as Tom + Vezok.
Option 4 is still open and is (Tom, Wuffles) + one of (Grape, Vezok). But it’s also quite risky. I don’t think that mafia need to no-kill in this setup. It gives us too much time; consider that even if we mislynch today, we are still basically on a “day 2” in terms of deaths but with an extra full day of mechanical info.
In conclusion: Tom + Vezok is the scumteam I’m most comfortable with.
Now obviously, this analysis is assuming information that only we know, and it's not a simple from anyone else's perspective. Knowing that we are bulletproof and *didn't* get shot actually simplified analysis a fair bit, which you all can't assume, and we have no way of proving it. So you all need to make your own decisions. If you do choose to lynch us, please review this analysis tomorrow.
- Kami
I've only had the chance to review things since about page six of posting and picked up some stuff. The things currently floating in my head and that I wanna put out for consideration.
1) So, I know that in this one that Scum can communicate, and what the missing role would be, so Vezok claiming doc and not doing a night kill night 1 could be that kind of a gamble. Or it could mean that he's actually a doc this game.
2) I think Vezok in general is a good enough player to make a gambit of skipping a night 1 clear to claim doc this early and clear himself and/or grape in the process.
3) Wuffles felt under heavy suspicion day 1. They might have forgone a night kill on the first day to play to the Vezok/Wuffles scum team being so heavily under suspicion.
This is speculation so far, but I wanted to put something out to the board before more time of inactivity passed.
-Kazin
Hot take says: Wuffles as a scum Messenger; under pressure, expected a track/watch to be likely; used Message specifically to try to get town cred from KJ and/or informative roles.
Currently thinking: does vezok come out as doc this early, with no deaths? It could be a clear on grape, but it is not a certain clear by any means, with multiple other protective roles. Is Vezok the kind of player to run out that risk, or is this a gambit? Evaluating.
- Kami
I (Kami-head) have personally done that before as town. I like fast wagons Day 1. If I could get every D1 to end within 100 posts, I would. I dream of having a daykill so that I can blast someone during RVS.
Day 1 analysis is overrated. We're all (well, except for whoever is scum) mostly flailing around Day 1. We're not even sure about you; we just like your flailing less than we like tom's.
- Kami
This thread is not giving me any particularly strong reads. Too many people are making weak arguments; they can't all be scum trying to mislead, and the weakness means there's no leader for me to follow. At the same time, there are no clear scum slips, contradictions, or other powerful tells.
I think I have a town KJ read because it's the best of the analyses.
I don't think Last is going to be so chaotic as scum. I could be proven wrong, but if so, that's just good scum play.
Of the arguments presented, I've disliked Wuffles' Tom push the most. It feels disingenuous. It feels like he's trying too hard to convince us that he really has a tom scumread. Note the subtle distinction between that and "convince us tom is scum", which is something a townie does.
vote Wuffles