I find it strange how folks forget equipment exists. I'd grumble about this guy being uncommon, but asking for it to be common would be asking for too much. Goes right into my Kari Zev troll commander deck.
To be honest I just legit forgot 3 Checklands were available in that color combination, which just sort of proves my point more. There's very little reason to play a mono-color deck when the mana is this good.
You're right, the question is whether you want a guy who doesn't let you cast non-creature spells unless x-y happens in something other than a creature heavy deck? And if you're going for a creature heavy deck, you'll somewhat likely be playing all the other hexproof critters or the fine selection of green beef, making you so heavily green you might as well be mono. And that both pushes other people towards wraths and doesn't necessarily improve your vulnerability to wraths. And the Wrath deck also has good mana fixing, so you can combine those with a lot of things, too.
Bottom line is, you can counter the guy, you can board wipe the guy, you can single-target remove the guy and unless Goreclaw is also there to help you can chump block the guy. There's enough hexproof around that if green creature strats are a factor folks will be packing answers to more resilient stuff than him anyway, so he looks like he'll just end up as collateral.
I think that's why they gave Ferrox his exact downside. If discard is a factor, the kind of discard that can trigget this guy, then he can be run in any deck. This is why Dodecapod was originally an artifact, and it did hose Gerrard's Verdict use back in the day (and the verdict is one of the best discard spells ever made, which became apparent years later in formats where people just didn't have anti-discard tech in their sideboard). I said mono-green because the more you move away from the ramp-into-Ghalta plan the more likely your deck is to want to play noncreature spells (seems to me).
And, you know, if you've got Tyrant, Vine Mare and this guy running around, and the extra quick Steel Leaf Champion, and Llanowar Elves, and it's played in a meta, that pushes folks towards wraths. Slaughter the Strong in particular looks brutal, as long as you have a way to deal with Goreclaw.
You've still got Settle the Wreckage, Cleansing Nova and Slaughter the Strong along with whatever shows up in Ravnica Block, then. And you've got both G/W and G/B shocklands coming in so the deck can run both the new Assassin's Throphy and Cast Down (even if Cast Down doesn't kill Goreclaw and Galtha), while ensuring you have double white for the wraths. If there's something other than Cast Down which reliably deals with Goreclaw, that might be a good idea instead.
You likely need some card draw. A small annoying deathtouch bugger in either B or G or a black one drop which gives someone -1/-1 when it dies to kill mana elves might be handy, and you're at 28 cards with the remaining 8-10 being whatever you're supposed to win with.
Ferrox would, in that case, kinda-sorta protect the deck from getting it's Ghaltas discarded, but it wouldn't do much else. If one of your 8 dudes is a 3-4 powered guy with lifelink, then that would also survive Slaughter the Strong and get back any life you lost while building up to the wraths. You can also side any number of wraths out for discard and whatever against control.
Tweak it, tune it, playtest it, hopefully score a less expensive wrath than nova in Ravnica, and it's hard to see how mono green gets anywhere.
The "meta adjustments" I was talking about are pretty simple - if mono green takes off, folks start packing wraths. We're heading into shockland country. How many wraths remain in the format post-rotation? Bontu's Last Reckoning and Settle the Wreckage for sure, anything else?
Because how does mono green handle 12 wraths? This guy does f**k-all against those, and if any of this green nonsense gets threatening, you just know folks will go there.
Steel-Leef is the best card among those, btw, as he actually has evasion, can come in on turn 2 and hit once or twice before the other guy wraths.
It'll be hard to match the Amonkhet red suite, but of all the cards spoiled so far this one looks the most promising. It has perma-prowess which you can also randomly turn into a +3 mana burst? Even discounting combo potential, that looks quite nuts. Feels like one of those cards which if it costs three mana to cast it's too expensive to really make use of it no matter how powerful it is, but if it costs 2 it's obviously silly.
First rare+ card of the set that made me actually interested in trying to get a playset or a commander copy. (The only below-rare card so far that looks like an obvious must-have is also red, interestingly enough, the eldrazi-killing goblin).
I always thought Goblin Legionnaire was a bit too good at common. I was also kinda expecting a reprint of it this time around, seemed like a shoe-in. It seems to have been what they started out with, like, it'd be very surprised if this card didn't start out as exactly that. Then they decided to make it an eldrazi hoser, and nerfed it hard by not letting it hit the opponent in the face with the damage. Well, it can nuke Eldrazi, it'll be one of the most sought after cards in the set (not the most expensive, just something everyone'll want a copy or playset of), but eh... It's also uncommon, so no pauper play.
Oh, well, probably will still be in every red commander deck at least. Small abrade which beats face, rather good. Can't stop whining about it not being mono-red Goblin Legionaire, though. If it only had the red part, and no eldrazi-hosing, but was common, it'd see a lot of pauper play, and you wouldn't have to splash white.
It's a Hunted Wumpus without the drawback of the wumpus, and comes with automatic spell pierce on the first removal pointed at it.
Except it's got it's own drawback, which isn't small potatoes. The auto Spell Pierce is cool, sure, as is the discard proofing (vs. specific kinds of discard), but it's not really wowing for a mythic Hunted Wumpus. The og wumpus and the og Dodecapod were uncommons, so it doesn't look like power creep to me at all. Considering that back in RtR block you did get a Loxodon Smiter who was a 4/4 for 3 (rather a good deal), couldn't be countered AND was anti-discard tech at rare...
It's like they wanted to make a card which hoses Bolas to discourage people from playing Bolas, but then they tried to make sure that the card was solidly meh enough to not actually turn up everywhere. Or, really, anywhere, because if Bolas isn't in the meta then there's not necessarily much reason to run these guys in the side.
Yes, Carnage Tyrant was/is good. If you're Green you'll have multiple Tyrants in the board at least because of Teferi, Hero of Dominaria decks. For those decks, its either find Settle/Fumigate or die because they have literally no other way to stop it.
Makes sense, but it is a bit weird. There was huge hype surrounding it, but then I played plenty of standard and I haven't seen a single one ever. It was the chase mythic of the set but noone at all was playing it. Even after the copter and aetherwork marvel bans.
And, well, goes to show that even a creature with both solid hexproof AND trample, none of which this guy has, ended up being niche sideboard material. The Galtha interaction might mean the Ferox sees play, as might a random blowout chance of having multiples in hand with that legendary green bear from Dominaria that makes 4+ power creatures cost 2 less to play (if that guy ever gets going), but that all sounds like something that can turn solidly unviable with meta adjustments.
Some good points, but, like, you put this guy down and it eats a pacifism/arrest/whateverofthesort. Have fun paying 2 whenever you want to play a noncreature spell, or, like ever casting one.
I kinda missed the Galtha interaction, which is nice to be sure. But some guy in another place was raving about how this was going to cost 15-20$. I (diseblievingly) hear folks comparing it to Tarmogoyf (???) and Loxodon Smiter (!!!).
I just don't see it. This thing costs 4 mana and comes with a drawback. It can also be countered. It doesn't look particularly playable outside of standard, feels like Hunted Wumpus more than it does like Blastoderm. There is (and will be) plenty of ridiculous things to pull off other than Bolas in standard. Even with Bolas, if you're playing him you're black. And unless I'm mistaken, standard is going to include Cast Down at the very least, and you do have mana to cast it (+2) if you had enough mana to cast Bolas (seeing how Bolas is dirt cheap).
The guy does make a bit of a roadblock for Red decks, that it does, although those won't let it get into play for free. They're also liable to kill mana dorks easily. And they can alsways let you put it down, then get a lot of mileage out of a slightly more expensive than usual Threaten effect.
So what's a realistic price range on the guy? He can block better than Vine Mare, but doesn't inspire confidence that he's any better than Vine Mare in practice (in face he could easily be worse). And why do people fall for this sort of thing even if at a second glance it looks suspiciously like a piece of junk? Was Carnage Tyrant actually any good in constructed? The hype was there, it was the chase mythic, it's still 12$ for some reason, but was it ever really justified? Vine Mare is a 1.20$, and noone's making justified donate jokes about it.
2GG for a 6/6 is... meh, allright, but you know, nothing to lose your head over.
It's a bit more difficult to target than creatures usually are. Comes with a hefty drawback. You can pay 2 to get rid of the drawback, but then you've got a vanilla dude, or the other guy can pay 2 to get rid of the drawback and then they kill it. In multiplayer one guy pays the mana, the other guy kills it.
No evasion whatsoever.
The whole Dodecapod bussiness is good in theory, but in practice only works if there's some untargeted discard that's wildly popular. Otherwise it does nothing at all.
This card is... basically a pushed common? An unpushed uncommon? Not the best? Junk mythic?
I see the point, it's harder to get rid of for an enemy who's red, but that's kinda it?
I don't get folks who for a moment thought these might NOT be in. You could print a set with nothing but blank cardboard pieces in boosters apart from boosters that have a Shockland in them, and folks would still line up for drafts. The sad thing is that Ravnica blocks weren't really all that good most of the time. You'd get a runaway mechanic or two, maybe. You'd get a few basic-but-solid or even simply pushed cards that are undercosted or overly reliable due to being multicolored. You'd get a decentish, usable card out of some of the many cycles that multicolored blocks seem crammed with. You'd get a metric ton of completely unplayable crap that you look at years afterwards and can't even give away because noone could possibly want it for any reason.
And you get Shocklands. They come into play untapped, produce two types of mana, and count as both types of land. They're pretty much Alpha Duals. From the WoTC perspective this is "we've got Shocklands in boosters" time, not "we're putting a set out" time. It's the whole point to the set. Anyone who started playing after RTR, doesn't have these unless they're rich, and most folks aren't, and they haven't really had a chance to get these. And everyone who doesn't exclusively play monocolored pauper wants these. I'm not expecting the price to drop, I'm expecting record paper draft attendance. I'm also kinda expecting the block to mostly suck, but do very well financially, as you don't have to bother if you've got these things in the packs. Khans were surprisingly good for a multicolor heavy set, but Ravnica's were always kinda meh overall.
As for the price drop due to availability... You can't soak up the demand for these things. People don't trade these away. What the price is will be determined by card stores, and they don't want the price dropping either.
It's an eternal format card. Sure they're not very expensive, but try actually getting them without ordering online. The shipping always inflates the price of whatever you're buying. Noone wants them in draft, sure, it's not first pick material, but there WILL be folks trading for them after every draft. Also, I've played with Basking Rootwalla back in Oddysey. Doesn't matter how puny-looking a creature is if it can turn Surveil into more than "draw a card", like Rootwalla did for looting/discard. I mean, if you surveil this thing you've got a 1/1 flier you paid nothing for, and I won plenty of M19 draft matches with the "3 mana 1/1 draw a card" artifact critter boosted with that +2/+0 axe. Folks tended to snap the little buggers up fast, too.
Also, this time around it'll be in standard with Search of Azcanta and a mechanic it is very sinergistic with. Folks will want to open shocklands, sure, but the set will be loaded with crap rares, too, and this isn't half bad.
Btw, before folks dismiss Mentor, remember that Equipment and Auras exist. A hybrid R/W one mana 1/1 with mentor would be rather good. If we get a common mono-colored Mentor at 2cc (with any stats at all) in R and in W, they'll probably be played in Pauper where you've got Goblin Grappler , Deftblade Elite and Bonesplitter. Turn one one of those two, turn two the coresponding 2 mana mentor, turn 3 Bonesplitter + equip + one mana removal, and before you know it Delver needs removal to not get locked out of ever having creatures on the board. And you simply curved out. If they're busy dealing with that, it's easier for you to plop down a Sparksmith and have more stuff they need to handle or lose.
Surveil is much stronger than Scry, and Scry itself is quite a strong mechanic. I hope we don't get a one mana cantrip with surveil... in blue. It comboes with Brainstorm for effortless lunacy. Folks have rightly been clamoring that blue dominates pauper due to all the filtering. It'd be hilarious and refreshing if black got in on the game, even if it's with a 1B sorcery with draw and surveil 2.
Mentor is probably ok. Boros dominated the original Ravnica, honestly, despite not having a significant ability. Ravnica's are kinda underpowered overall apart from random runaway mechanics here and there (which don't necessarily even work in its standard). Just being RW with decent mana fixing lets you push most other things around.
Convoke is and always was a booooooooooriiiiiiiiiiiinggggg mechanic. And it was never a good mechanic - fun for some, maybe, but it's conceptually weak.
Undergrowth is context dependent. Is it easy to seriously mill yourself in the format? Then a harmless looking Undergrowth card can murder you. There's a card from one of the Tarkir sets which costs 1B, self-mills for 3 and then puts as many counters on one of your dudes as you have dudes in your grave. That thing kills people on the spot in the right kind of deck. Just saying.
Jump-Start is... IDK, really depends on the cards. But since we've already seen the 2 damage common and the draw 1 common, I don't really see what they could even do to make an impactful card with the mechanic. It has to do with the whole "mana cost is the same" thing, seems really hard to design with that in mind. If you don't make the cost-to-effect ratio appealing, then the card likely just sucks or is meh, but if you do make the cost appealing then you turn people's extra lands into cards good enough to be played without Jump-Start. They seemed to have gone with the meh, which is bad for the set, but probably good for magic, because if they went with "playable" they'd have made power-creeped staples which would be pretty difficult to top.
You're right, the question is whether you want a guy who doesn't let you cast non-creature spells unless x-y happens in something other than a creature heavy deck? And if you're going for a creature heavy deck, you'll somewhat likely be playing all the other hexproof critters or the fine selection of green beef, making you so heavily green you might as well be mono. And that both pushes other people towards wraths and doesn't necessarily improve your vulnerability to wraths. And the Wrath deck also has good mana fixing, so you can combine those with a lot of things, too.
Bottom line is, you can counter the guy, you can board wipe the guy, you can single-target remove the guy and unless Goreclaw is also there to help you can chump block the guy. There's enough hexproof around that if green creature strats are a factor folks will be packing answers to more resilient stuff than him anyway, so he looks like he'll just end up as collateral.
I think that's why they gave Ferrox his exact downside. If discard is a factor, the kind of discard that can trigget this guy, then he can be run in any deck. This is why Dodecapod was originally an artifact, and it did hose Gerrard's Verdict use back in the day (and the verdict is one of the best discard spells ever made, which became apparent years later in formats where people just didn't have anti-discard tech in their sideboard). I said mono-green because the more you move away from the ramp-into-Ghalta plan the more likely your deck is to want to play noncreature spells (seems to me).
And, you know, if you've got Tyrant, Vine Mare and this guy running around, and the extra quick Steel Leaf Champion, and Llanowar Elves, and it's played in a meta, that pushes folks towards wraths. Slaughter the Strong in particular looks brutal, as long as you have a way to deal with Goreclaw.
You've still got Settle the Wreckage, Cleansing Nova and Slaughter the Strong along with whatever shows up in Ravnica Block, then. And you've got both G/W and G/B shocklands coming in so the deck can run both the new Assassin's Throphy and Cast Down (even if Cast Down doesn't kill Goreclaw and Galtha), while ensuring you have double white for the wraths. If there's something other than Cast Down which reliably deals with Goreclaw, that might be a good idea instead.
You likely need some card draw. A small annoying deathtouch bugger in either B or G or a black one drop which gives someone -1/-1 when it dies to kill mana elves might be handy, and you're at 28 cards with the remaining 8-10 being whatever you're supposed to win with.
Ferrox would, in that case, kinda-sorta protect the deck from getting it's Ghaltas discarded, but it wouldn't do much else. If one of your 8 dudes is a 3-4 powered guy with lifelink, then that would also survive Slaughter the Strong and get back any life you lost while building up to the wraths. You can also side any number of wraths out for discard and whatever against control.
Tweak it, tune it, playtest it, hopefully score a less expensive wrath than nova in Ravnica, and it's hard to see how mono green gets anywhere.
Because how does mono green handle 12 wraths? This guy does f**k-all against those, and if any of this green nonsense gets threatening, you just know folks will go there.
Steel-Leef is the best card among those, btw, as he actually has evasion, can come in on turn 2 and hit once or twice before the other guy wraths.
First rare+ card of the set that made me actually interested in trying to get a playset or a commander copy. (The only below-rare card so far that looks like an obvious must-have is also red, interestingly enough, the eldrazi-killing goblin).
Oh, well, probably will still be in every red commander deck at least. Small abrade which beats face, rather good. Can't stop whining about it not being mono-red Goblin Legionaire, though. If it only had the red part, and no eldrazi-hosing, but was common, it'd see a lot of pauper play, and you wouldn't have to splash white.
Except it's got it's own drawback, which isn't small potatoes. The auto Spell Pierce is cool, sure, as is the discard proofing (vs. specific kinds of discard), but it's not really wowing for a mythic Hunted Wumpus. The og wumpus and the og Dodecapod were uncommons, so it doesn't look like power creep to me at all. Considering that back in RtR block you did get a Loxodon Smiter who was a 4/4 for 3 (rather a good deal), couldn't be countered AND was anti-discard tech at rare...
It's like they wanted to make a card which hoses Bolas to discourage people from playing Bolas, but then they tried to make sure that the card was solidly meh enough to not actually turn up everywhere. Or, really, anywhere, because if Bolas isn't in the meta then there's not necessarily much reason to run these guys in the side.
Makes sense, but it is a bit weird. There was huge hype surrounding it, but then I played plenty of standard and I haven't seen a single one ever. It was the chase mythic of the set but noone at all was playing it. Even after the copter and aetherwork marvel bans.
And, well, goes to show that even a creature with both solid hexproof AND trample, none of which this guy has, ended up being niche sideboard material. The Galtha interaction might mean the Ferox sees play, as might a random blowout chance of having multiples in hand with that legendary green bear from Dominaria that makes 4+ power creatures cost 2 less to play (if that guy ever gets going), but that all sounds like something that can turn solidly unviable with meta adjustments.
I kinda missed the Galtha interaction, which is nice to be sure. But some guy in another place was raving about how this was going to cost 15-20$. I (diseblievingly) hear folks comparing it to Tarmogoyf (???) and Loxodon Smiter (!!!).
I just don't see it. This thing costs 4 mana and comes with a drawback. It can also be countered. It doesn't look particularly playable outside of standard, feels like Hunted Wumpus more than it does like Blastoderm. There is (and will be) plenty of ridiculous things to pull off other than Bolas in standard. Even with Bolas, if you're playing him you're black. And unless I'm mistaken, standard is going to include Cast Down at the very least, and you do have mana to cast it (+2) if you had enough mana to cast Bolas (seeing how Bolas is dirt cheap).
The guy does make a bit of a roadblock for Red decks, that it does, although those won't let it get into play for free. They're also liable to kill mana dorks easily. And they can alsways let you put it down, then get a lot of mileage out of a slightly more expensive than usual Threaten effect.
So what's a realistic price range on the guy? He can block better than Vine Mare, but doesn't inspire confidence that he's any better than Vine Mare in practice (in face he could easily be worse). And why do people fall for this sort of thing even if at a second glance it looks suspiciously like a piece of junk? Was Carnage Tyrant actually any good in constructed? The hype was there, it was the chase mythic, it's still 12$ for some reason, but was it ever really justified? Vine Mare is a 1.20$, and noone's making justified donate jokes about it.
2GG for a 6/6 is... meh, allright, but you know, nothing to lose your head over.
It's a bit more difficult to target than creatures usually are. Comes with a hefty drawback. You can pay 2 to get rid of the drawback, but then you've got a vanilla dude, or the other guy can pay 2 to get rid of the drawback and then they kill it. In multiplayer one guy pays the mana, the other guy kills it.
No evasion whatsoever.
The whole Dodecapod bussiness is good in theory, but in practice only works if there's some untargeted discard that's wildly popular. Otherwise it does nothing at all.
This card is... basically a pushed common? An unpushed uncommon? Not the best? Junk mythic?
I see the point, it's harder to get rid of for an enemy who's red, but that's kinda it?
And you get Shocklands. They come into play untapped, produce two types of mana, and count as both types of land. They're pretty much Alpha Duals. From the WoTC perspective this is "we've got Shocklands in boosters" time, not "we're putting a set out" time. It's the whole point to the set. Anyone who started playing after RTR, doesn't have these unless they're rich, and most folks aren't, and they haven't really had a chance to get these. And everyone who doesn't exclusively play monocolored pauper wants these. I'm not expecting the price to drop, I'm expecting record paper draft attendance. I'm also kinda expecting the block to mostly suck, but do very well financially, as you don't have to bother if you've got these things in the packs. Khans were surprisingly good for a multicolor heavy set, but Ravnica's were always kinda meh overall.
As for the price drop due to availability... You can't soak up the demand for these things. People don't trade these away. What the price is will be determined by card stores, and they don't want the price dropping either.
Also, this time around it'll be in standard with Search of Azcanta and a mechanic it is very sinergistic with. Folks will want to open shocklands, sure, but the set will be loaded with crap rares, too, and this isn't half bad.
Mentor is probably ok. Boros dominated the original Ravnica, honestly, despite not having a significant ability. Ravnica's are kinda underpowered overall apart from random runaway mechanics here and there (which don't necessarily even work in its standard). Just being RW with decent mana fixing lets you push most other things around.
Convoke is and always was a booooooooooriiiiiiiiiiiinggggg mechanic. And it was never a good mechanic - fun for some, maybe, but it's conceptually weak.
Undergrowth is context dependent. Is it easy to seriously mill yourself in the format? Then a harmless looking Undergrowth card can murder you. There's a card from one of the Tarkir sets which costs 1B, self-mills for 3 and then puts as many counters on one of your dudes as you have dudes in your grave. That thing kills people on the spot in the right kind of deck. Just saying.
Jump-Start is... IDK, really depends on the cards. But since we've already seen the 2 damage common and the draw 1 common, I don't really see what they could even do to make an impactful card with the mechanic. It has to do with the whole "mana cost is the same" thing, seems really hard to design with that in mind. If you don't make the cost-to-effect ratio appealing, then the card likely just sucks or is meh, but if you do make the cost appealing then you turn people's extra lands into cards good enough to be played without Jump-Start. They seemed to have gone with the meh, which is bad for the set, but probably good for magic, because if they went with "playable" they'd have made power-creeped staples which would be pretty difficult to top.