This deck seems wacky powerful, and like a deck that will be "on the rise" in the months ahead.
If you look at my Decks portion of my profile, you can see my list if your are interested. I've built this in the last week after seeing SaffronOlive's take on the deck and have been fascinated by it...
Sometimes, the deck is a smelly donkey that you want to drop-kick, but that's rare. I had a weird situation playing last night (due to Godly draw and even better luck with random discard) where I had THREE Hollow Ones on the board on the first term, and a bunch of correlating Bloodghasts and Amalgams by turn 2... Nuts, man... Absolute nuts.
That might even beat a "Vintage" deck on occasion.
The go-to cards have skyrocketed in price over the last two weeks. This deck will be a THING, I think... And I'm really glad to have pooled the necessary cards to build it.
It's Way Fun too...
The deck will definitely be a thing. On the MTGO Competitive Leagues the #2 of the leader board is playing Rakdos Hollow One. His deck is in the OP (jdmflcl's deck). Unless the pros are sleeping, this deck should be brought to the PT.
I looked at your deck, and I think you could use 2x more Street Wraith. Then, you have 20 lands, while most people run 18 on average, so you can cut some lands. With more Street Wraith you will cycle into more land anyway. Street Wraith is what Hollow One makes so broken, so I would always max out on this.
yo yo... been looking for a primer for this... I believe im the only person using edge of autumn? ... its a free cycler, flood protection, lets you be fast, fill up your graveyard quick and not exile things like looting/flamewake/bloodghast when casting gurmag. Its often sideboarded out except when We need to be fastfastfast... 4 felt excessive because we often only want to cycle one in a match. makes more intentional t1 hollow one broken hands ( dont sac your land if its your only land (including hand) unless youre gonna get like 2 or 3 hollow ones) takes practice, but feels like a missing link in the deck to me
Edge of Autumn is a reasonable card to play. Two decks in the OP play it (I see now you are in the OP), but not a full play set. The other Edge player in the OP found it the worst card of their list, but playable. Myself I liked it a bit less, but I play a Vengevine list, so it synergizes a bit less than in your list.
I was expecting a primer by Crimson Lancer at some point. Otherwise I can expand the primer when time allows.
It is hard for me to say which version is better without testing. The second version at least fixes the 4 power creatures a bit, enabling the Phoenix. I have no experience with the Prototype, but it seems too situational.
Thats first this's sb is total garbage. Yall can do so much better IMO.
Other than that they both look good. Probably lean slightly to the rakdos deck though.
This was a budget deck. Of course it needs Blood Moons and such, or at the very least Molten Rain over Stone Rain.
I suppose this would be a good start for budget mono-red. Apparently there is no Phoenix in there. Probably because there are not enough 4-power dudes.
I guess I should work out a Primer late this week; I've taken the deck to 13th at Regionals, 145th at GP OKC, and 4-0 most of my local events with it.
Goblin Lore is used because Reunion is the worst top-deck with an empty hand of all time, and we're running an empty hand fairly often. Lore replaces itself, digs deep, and instantly enables a free Hollow One. In my testing, it's by far the better card.
I'll see about coming up with a Primer in a few days!
That would be great! Ask a mod what to do with this thread (1: close this one and open a new thread or 2: take over the OP).
What version are you playing? Gruul, Rakdos, Jund or something else?
I was aware of that thread, but the OP is a totally different deck: no Flameblade Adept, no Goblin Lore, no Flamewake Phoenix, no Street Wraith, all which are absolutely critical cards to make this deck function. Also the title doesn't contain Hollow One, so it has basically no activity. I expect a lot this deck in the future, but as is the deck was hidden at the forum. I will contact a mod to ask whether relevant posts can be merged.
Edge of Autumn is never cast, it is just there for the cycling. This deck doesn't need much mana, so you can use it to power out an early Hollow One or to cycle away topdecked lands. It is considered to be the worst card of the deck though.
I consider Inquiry to be worse than Lore. Often the discard gives you opponent graveyard value and it costs you a card. Goblin Lore finances a turn 2 Hollow One (a YOLO One in this case). It sucks to discard Hollow One, but without Lore you couldn't have cast it anyway. Also, the deck contains enough graveyard value to not make it a very risky move. Don't cast it while you have a great hand though, because it is a midgame mulligan. Reunion does not pay for a turn 2 Hollow One in most cases and it is not always castable. Also a countered Reunion would likely cost you the game.
Introduction Hollow One is a recent card that is often a turn 1 play of a Burning Inquiry or Street Wraith+Faithless Looting, when you simply cast it for 0. Alternatively you can play it for 1 on turn 2 from a Faithless Looting or from a Goblin Lore for 0. Anyway, you will get an early 4/4 Bolt-proof/Push-proof creature for nearly no effort. Next to Hollow One Flameblade Adept and Flamewake Phoenix are played, which synergize with discard and with each other. With this and some graveyard support you can turn it into a very fast and very resilient deck.
History
There is not that much history yet, but Hollow One decks are on the rise recently. To my knowledge the first record of Hollow One in Modern is from Julian Grace-Martin, who finished 35th in an SCG Open and later 5-0ed a MTGO Competitive League with a Vengevine version in August 2017. People were not familiar with Hollow One at that time and simply named the deck "Dredge" despite it had literally 0 dredge cards. Not much later, Peter Hollman was experimenting in a Rakdos setting, and discovered you don't strictly need Vengevine to make the deck work. Many finishes followed in several tournaments and since the PT it is a widely known deck.
Decklists
There are many ways you can use your Hollow Ones. All styles play pretty different.
1) Gruul Hyperaggro.
This was the first iteration of the deck. It probably has the most maximum power, with perhaps a tradeoff with consistency. Vengevine can make your draws unbeatable, but it is sometimes hard to find the trigger. Anyway, if you want to experience potential turn 1's like THIS, then this deck may be something for you.
2) Rakdos version mostly known as simply "Hollow One".
This deck is perhaps a little slower than the version above. However, the cards in the deck are a little less situational. Bloodghast is lot easier to trigger than Vengevine, but it makes a lot less impact. In addition, unline most Vengevine decks, these decks capitalize on discard. This makes Flameblade Adept an excellent and reliable 1-drop. Whereas the Gruul deck was the first appearance of Hollow One, the Rakdos deck is thus far the most succesful version with good PT finishes.
This is the deck that finished 4th at the PT. The other 3 decks that I saw at the PT have an identical 60 and near-identical sideboard, so, this is the deck where you should start. Actually in about a year's time (it's Dec 2018 now), the maindeck didn't change at all. Most variation will be in the sideboard.
3) Mono Red "Hollow Phoenix" feat. Arclight Phoenix, the new kid in town (Dec 2018).
This direction of the deck is very spell focused. Phoenix is like an inverted Vengevine, so they are totally not compatible with each other. For the rest this deck blends elements from the Rakdos version together with extra spells. It is recently consistently placing results in the MTGO Competitive Leagues and perhaps paper will follow.
4) Other color combinations.
Jund. In case you want to mix all the best cards together. Gurmag Angler is usually better than Hooting Mandrils. Also you can play both Vengevine and Bloodghast, with the footnote that together they aren't the best pair as they don't trigger each other. Also I have observed people playing Death's Shadow in Hollow One Jund lists. But then, which Modern deck doesn't have a Death's Shadow variant? Then there is now also a Temur variant. Blue has some looting spells and it has useful cards such as Stubborn Denial, so you can also experiment with that.
Hollow One
Are you really going to play a Hollow One deck without 4 of these?!?!
Faithless Looting
Faithless Looting = best Looting. Draws cards, discards cards of your choice, and even has flashback. The enabler of the deck. Solid 4-of.
Street Wraith
1) Draws 2) Discards 3) Is delve fuel all for 0 mana and at instant speed. This is the spice that makes Hollow One playable turn 1 of Looting + this. Although it is not castable in Gruul decks, even there it is a solid 4-of.
Vengevine / Bloodghast
The first real choice while building the deck. Are you going for the nuts (Vengevine) or for the more reliable Bloodghast? Sadly these creatures don't synergize with each other, so most people can play only one of them. If you play them, play all 4-of.
- Vengevine has way more impact than Bloodghast. Stats is a clear win for Vengevine: p/t is way higher, it has always haste, it can block, and it triggers Flamewake Phoenix.
- Bloodghast is way more easy to get into play. Playing a land is a lot easier than playing two creatures. Vengevine often requires a lot of planning/timing or just having good luck, while Bloodghast will be activated in most cases without too much hassle. This way Vengevine will dictate how you build your deck and asks you to add a lot of creatures, while Bloodghast doesn't demand any deckbuilding sacrifices. You will see it reflected in the ratings below: Rakdos can simply afford to play better cards than Gruul.
Flameblade Adept (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
A must for Rakdos decks as they capitalize on discard. They also don't have Vengevine, so it is nice to have another potential 4-power trigger for Flamewake Phoenix. This card will deliver a lot of damage for a 1-drop, and it is hard to deal with as it has Menace. It has menace guys! I mean, I just repeat it, as nobody reads this freaking card. I am glad MTGO gives a popup when somebody tried to block it again with 1 creature, so I don't need to explain it every time.
For Gruul decks this is also good, but less ideal. The 1-mana cost is a plus as it is easy to trigger Vengevine with it. However, Flameblade requires timing and Vengevine also requires timing. This clashes on a regular basis. Basically, you want to loot Vengevine turn 1 and trigger it turn 2, but with Adept you want to play Adept turn 1 and loot turn 2 to trigger it. Tough choices...
Flamewake Phoenix (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This card combines well with discard and the big creatures the deck has. Note that also Flameblade Adept triggers Phoenix after discarding 3 or more cards (which happens often). I rate it higher for Rakdos than Gruul, as Gruul often doesn't have the space for this and Phoenix is awkward in triggering Vengevine. Other way around goes well as Vengevine has 4 power. Phoenix is a common 2-of in Gruul and 3-4-of in Rakdos.
Burning Inquiry (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
People are often scared by the random nature. Don't be scared and just let it go, the deck is built to handle it. You might discard Hollow One with it, but remember you couldn't have cast Hollow One anyway without this card, so if you discard it, nothing is lost. This card generates a lot of Delve material, pumps Flameblade Adept to Ferocious, is a graveyard enabler and a Hollow One enabler. Why not 5 stars? Because you go down a card. Also you give your opponent graveyard value. Sometimes this is not relevant, but against Dredge this will cost you the game.
Rakdos likes this as it discards many cards. Gruul less, because it is a non-creature spell and doesn't like to go down too many cards.
Goblin Lore (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Like Inquiry, but this doesn't give your opponents value. Also this is handsize-neutral. This is why I rate it a bit higher than Inquiry, especially for Gruul decks.
Cathartic Reunion (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This is no Dredge, so no high rating. Unlike Burning Inquiry or Goblin Lore this doesn't enable a turn 2 Hollow One or makes Flameblade Adept Ferocious. It is often not castable and a bad topdeck. On top of that, if this gets countered, you are very close to losing the game.
I rate this card a little higher for Gruul than Rakdos, because Gruul decks like to sculpt their hand more for Vengevine than Rakdos decks.
Insolent Neonate (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This is a near must for Gruul decks and a fringe option for Rakdos. It is good for Gruul because it discards and easily triggers Vengevine. You go down a card, but you get back Vengevine. This card is unimpressive in combat, but it is the glue that holds the deck together. With this, a hand containing Street Wraith, Vengevine, Neonate and Hollow One can get a turn 2 Vengevine + Hollow One. I specifically mention this as I see in streams that many players miss this (Cycle Wraith, Cast Neonate, Discard Vengevine, Cast Hollow One (5-4=1), Trigger Vengevine). Another common turn 2 scenario is Faithless Looting Vengevine, play Neonate, sac Neonate, cast Hollow One for free and trigger Vengevine. For Rakdos, however, this card is not that exciting, only 1 card to discard isn't that great.
Lightning Bolt (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Modern all-star. Automatic 4-of in Rakdos. Not automatic 4-of in Gruul as it doesn't trigger Vengevine.
Grim Lavamancer (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
A solid interaction card for both deck versions as there is usually enough graveyard fuel for it. For Gruul this is an extra attractive option as it is a 1-mana creature, so it is good with Vengevine. It is also playable for Rakdos and often sees play in the sideboard. This card completely wrecks small creature decks and this is when to side it in.
Fiery Temper (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Sees some play in Rakdos decks. Discarding it and casting it is great value. Timing is hard though.
Hooting Mandrils / Gurmag Angler / Tasigur, the Golden Fang
A lot of Delve material, so you can play the delve creatures. Don't play too many though, as you don't want to delve Bloodghasts and such. Therefore I also listed Tasigur, as he is a bit milder for the graveyard.
Collective Brutality (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Was not in the original primer, but in the past months this card went from sideboard to main deck. Most people playing Rakdos run 2 of these in the main nowadays. It is excellent interaction and the discard clause fits the discard theme well.
And there is further some spice. As with all spices, handle with care! Arclight Phoenix: HOT NEW CARD. This is probably more than just spice. The place to brew right now. Bedlam Reveler: castable in Rakdos as it has many spells and a great way to loot a lot. It sees a lot of play in Arclight Phoenix decks. Burning-Tree Emissary / Reckless Bushwhacker: powerful combo which triggers Vengevine. Nowadays (= end of March) this sees a lot of play in Gruul decks. Become Immense: can make any creature deadly, works well with the big graveyards. Goblin Bushwhacker: enables going wide. Faerie Macabre: that extra discard effect for Hollow One. Edge of Autumn: that extra cycling effect for when you really need it. It tough with the low land count though. Goblin Guide/Monastery Swiftspear: hyper aggro option. Temur Battle Rage: for when you want to win more instead of less. Call to the Netherworld: recover a cycled Street Wraith or randomly discarded Gurmag Angler. Bomat Courier: high risk, high reward! Spin the wheel! Death's Shadow: it actually appeared in some lists because this is Modern! Noose Constrictor: enables a turn 2 Vengevine + Hollow One. Your hand won't like it though.
Sideboarding and matchups
For Rakdos Hollow One see HERE (by Gabriel Nassif) or HERE (by Mike Sigrist).
Stock sideboard cards
-Blood Moon: for both Gruul and Rakdos there is enough red in the deck to run this without too many sacrifices. And, even if you end up with something uncastable, you can just loot it away. Nearly every deck has it in the sideboard except if you want to next-level your opponent. They will play around Moon game 2/3 anyway, so you might as well leave it out of your deck. Myself I find it too good to not play it.
-Ancient Grudge: Perfect with the graveyard theme. Rakdos decks splash a Stomping Ground to play this.
-Big Game Hunter: For Rakdos decks this is a stock card to deal with the big creatures.
-Grim Lavamancer: Good against little creatures. I also shrink Goyfs with it and let Scavenging Ooze fizzle.
-Collective Brutality: Maindeckable, but you may need more game 2/3.
-Leyline of the Void: Most played graveyard hate. In Rakdos Nihil Spellbomb also sees some play and Faerie Macabre fits in the theme, although it doesn't hate that much. For Gruul decks Tormod's Crypt is actually an option. For Gruul I like Dryad Militant as proactive GY hate.
-Fatal Push: Good removal for Rakdos decks.
More info
A primer of the Rakdos deck made by jdmflcl/Char_Aznable and Nublkau, you can find HERE. HERE is an old version of that primer.
Another primer of the Rakdos deck (by Gabriel Nassif) you can find HERE.
The most recent primer of the Rakdos deck (by Mike Sigrist) you can find HERE.
More discussion about Vengevine-based Hollow One on Reddit HERE (=my deck), and HERE (=most recent thread, not my deck). You can also stay on this forum and go to the Dredgevine thread which nowadays contains as much dredge as the Affinity thread contains affinity.
That does seem a reasonable sideboard. You could try to squeeze in a Troll Ascetic or Thrun, the Last Troll in your 75, because they help a lot in those all-removal decks.
You are so damn right. The fact is that I actually play a set of bannerets. I just made the decklist off the top of my head when I posted my decklist. I ended up with 4 free slots and actually missed that I had forgotten this gem out.
Skullcrack is a meta choice, since soul sisters and martyr.proc homebrews both are quite popular budget choices in my area, from what I was told. Will try to squeezep them in the side, or even leyline of punishment.
The decklist should contain 4 bannerets and exclude 3 skullcrack and a single tattermunge witch (making it 3 witch). The latter is surprisingly effective to push some damages through when you go all-in and they try to block your key dudes.
PS: Sorry for missing card tag, too lazy switching back and for on my ipad k-board.
Ah, OK! I already was surprised by the absence of the Bosks. In a past version I didn't play so many Bosks, but that was when I used Aether Vial and with a lot of double-colored Shamans, and in such a situation Bosks become less good. In all other cases I would just run the full set.
Any thoughts on running 4 Burning-Tree Shaman? I see a 4 of in one list in the OP.
Seems like your best main deck insulation against combo: stops Kiki, Seer, Spike Feeder and Twin. Seems solid against Affinity as well. Given the prevalence of Twin and Pod in the meta it seems like a good 4-of.
Also, unless I'm missing some interaction, does this deck just extend a hand if Scapeshift is on the other side of the table?
Edit: actually I guess it doesn't stop Pod/Seer unless they're low on life going for Redcap combo. Finks would still gain infinite life. Of course if you have two on board...
I am running 3 currently, and I am considering to add one in the sideboard as well. Running 4 would mean for me to cut Eternal Witness or a Rage Forger, and that is not going to happen. Main reason for running 4 would be the 4 Toughness. Passes Bolt test, Anger of the Gods, Pyroclasm, Firespout, etc. These are the hard bits that stay after a sweeper, which makes it more difficult for many decks to set us aside. It indeed stops Twin and just drains opponents. I played many Melira Pod matches and it has been a while since they came to the stage it could combo. I think the combo is not so relevant in Melira Pod, but still BTS is good for running into Kitchen Finks.
Scapeshift is quite annoying with Firespouts and all those Cryptics/Tap. Sometimes you win before they get their taps online, but in general this match is difficult. Last few matches, however, I failed to draw my Blood Moon and I think that this match looks quite different when there is a Blood Moon in charge.
I love the inclusion of Gutteral Response in the side. It is one of those cards everyone forgets about even though blue is such a dominant color to go against.
Actually countering Cryptic Command is a big deal. It is usually how Scapeshift decks stay alive: Cryptic, tap everything, another cryptic, tap everything, Snapcaster Cryptic, tap everything, Snapcaster Cryptic, tap everything, Scapeshift... I should give it a try, however, running 4 of them is quite a lot.
Here's the 75 I plan to play in my next Modern event (FNM level). Before anything, I don't have access to CoS or fetches.
It seems more or less fine. I like the Blood Moon in the side. However, are you sure about Skullcrack in the main? I think this would be for us a sideboard card. Maybe you can replace it by Bosk Banneret. Believe it or not, most of my wins are games where I had a Bosk Banneret online, because that will allow you to flood the opponent. I am curious by the way what you think about Tattermunge Witch, because I never played it and I don't know how good it is. EDIT: I think you can also cut a Guttural Response. I think it is great to counter things like Cryptic Command and Electrolyze, but you don't want to end up with multiples in your hand, because by themselves they don't generate pressure.
What are your guy's thoughts on budget replacements for Fauna Shaman and Copperline Gorge? Does Karplusan Forest hurt too much? If any of you guys are running "budget budget" lists, what are you running, and how well is it working?
I've seen many lists with Karplusan Forest, so I think it is a very legit land. I am sure it won't hurt too much. I am fetching and shocking myself a lot, but that doesn't matter. Remember who is the aggressor in your match, and usually it is you, so you can take a few hits. I am currently playing with Horizon Canopy and in my other deck with City of Brass. With those lands it is not optional to hurt yourself, and still it is not a problem as long as you are the aggressor. Karplusan Forest gives you even the option to use it without damage, so I think it will only hurt you for 1 or 2 damage in a game.
Fauna Shaman is unique and I don't have a replacement for that. The only thing is to run more Lead the Stampede/Commune with Nature for when you want to find the right creature.
The more I thought about it, the more I realized how much I dislike drawing Harbinger all that often. Natural draw, 2 tutors and 4 dig spells are enough for me.
The dig spells indeed help. That is why I like Commune with Nature so much. In case of emergency you can dig a Harbinger and get your Rage Forger anyway. However, be sure you draw enough Forgers. It is the thing that makes the deck and without it it is a lion without teeth. Also make sure you have enough turn 1 plays. Without DRS I went for the full creature rush and dump my hand ASAP. I always find it very unsatisfactory to just play a land and pass the turn. Currently, I have 3 Harbinger, 2 Essence Warden, 3 Commune with Nature, and 3 Birds (and 4 lightning bolt) = 11/15, whereas you have only 7/11. I don't know whether I have too many, or you have too few one-drops. Actually I think 7 is not so much when I look at our neighbor Gruul Zoo, which runs a lot more 1 drops than I do. Perhaps Gruul Zoo is an extreme case, but I like to build up pressure starting on turn 1. In case you don't want to play creatures turn 1, you could opt for a land that comes into play tapped, such as Raging Ravine, or Treetop Village. This way, you still have a useful turn 1.
I built a super cheap version of this deck without a sideboard to have something to play on Modern nights. So much fun. Also love that people have to constantly read what my cards do. I have been thinking of putting a bit more money into the deck to bring it to a somewhat competitive level locally instead of just being for fun.
Starting with the land base I am going to pick up some Stomping Grounds (full set?) and probably a pair of Cavern of Souls.
Cavern of Souls will indeed always be good in this deck. I don't know what the optimum is. I have currently 4, but in the past I had 3 because I needed often colored mana for activation costs. Also the less counterspells in your meta, the less Caverns you will need. I don't how many Stomping Ground you will need. I have currently 2, because I fetch, but the closely related Gruul Zoo deck runs the full 4. Also Copperline Gorge is good, because the restriction of 3 lands to be untapped is not really relevant in this deck.
I like keeping the land around 20 to help ensure that Lead packs in as many creatures as possible.
I currently run 21 lands. 22 is absolutely too much, but I don't know about 20. I feel like with 21 the floods and screws more or less cancel eachother out.
The Bow was just a drop in because I wanted to toss something else in the deck and needs to go. I would prefer to keep the full set of bolts, but would be willing to get one Lead go.
Bolts are good, I think the full 4 is fine. By the way, you should also give the Commune with Nature a try, because it is good to set up your game on turn 1 already. Also, if you topdeck it, you can usually immediately use it and cast a creature, while with Lead the Stampede the casting often costs you the whole turn. I would replace the bow for something else, because other users found the bow too slow. I myself never tried it, because I too think it would be too slow. A spicy replacement would be Domri Rade or Shared Animosity. Even Gruul War Chant would not be bad.
I like Birds over other dorks as a flying chump blocker if I need it.
Yes, the chump block is an often overlooked quality of Birds. Also its mana is the best you can get. On the other hand Llanowar Elves are better with Wolf-Skull Shaman (Elf Kinship).
Skinshifter has proven to repeatedly be a workhorse and I do not really want to give them up. On the reverse, I love Wolf-Skull, but it rarely gets to stay on the field. Once people read the Kinship effect it becomes one giant bullseye for removal.
In my experience Skinshifter also rarely stays. It gets electrolyzed very often. Another problem is that it gets often bolted in response to its activation (and you can activate him only once/turn). Four of them is a lot and hard to activate them in multiples. You could try some Fauna Shaman in that slot. It has also a nice synergy with useless topdecked Birds, which you can exchange for Rage Forger.
I could probably also afford to go down to three Flamekin without being bothered.
Absolutely. I also run only 3. The reasoning is that I want to draw one of them and never two. Also, after a Harbinger you know you will be drawing Rage Forger, but sometimes you really need land, and then Harbinger becomes awkward. Sometimes I even cast Harbinger and then I don't look up Rage Forger because I really need land. Harbinger is sometimes great, sometimes a useless 1/1.
If I drop all the Wolf-Skull, a Flamekin, a Lead and the Bow that gives me seven flex spots to fill. I want to stay straight GR for now. I definitely want to add at least two Eternal Witness. Is Burning-Tree Shaman worth fitting in the main for a on hand solution to Twin? Same question for Essence Warden. How would some of you who know the deck better suggest filling out those seven slots?
Fauna Shamans do excellent work for me. Burning-Tree Shaman is nowadays a lot better than in the past, because I think sweepers (anger of the gods) became more prevalent and Burning-Tree is one of the few that stays. Twin plays bolts and Anger, so it is for sure good against them. They will side in Flameslash, but often Burning-Tree is already 4/5 by then. Take into account that you will also take some damage from him (Skinshifter). Eternal Witness is always great. That is why I also run Commune with Nature over Lead the Stampede, because then there is at least always something in the grave,
Sideboard wise my only "must haves" are at least two graveyard hate, two Pithing Needle and three artifact hate (both "hate" have plenty of options and I will pick out what appeals to me). Other than that I am really open, but just generally not very good at building sideboards.
For artifact hate I think Ancient Grudge would be the best. Grafdigger's Cage is also a nice one for the grave, because on top of that it stops Pod decks completely. Not only Pod and Chord of Calling, but also persist from Kitchen Finks and Murderous Redcap. Be careful to not "oversideboard", because if you have 2 Pithing Needles out and two Grafdiggers Cages, you slowed down your opponent, but then you spend 4 cards for slowing down your opponent, instead of spending 4 cards for winning your own match. This is why I like cards such as Destructive Revelry so much, because besides slowing down your opponent, you are still progressing your own goal. Anyway, for your sideboard you also need to know your meta. My sideboard is constantly changing, because the MTGO meta is constantly changing.
I looked at your deck, and I think you could use 2x more Street Wraith. Then, you have 20 lands, while most people run 18 on average, so you can cut some lands. With more Street Wraith you will cycle into more land anyway. Street Wraith is what Hollow One makes so broken, so I would always max out on this.
I was expecting a primer by Crimson Lancer at some point. Otherwise I can expand the primer when time allows.
This was a budget deck. Of course it needs Blood Moons and such, or at the very least Molten Rain over Stone Rain.
Edit: again two top 16 finishes in the MTGO Challenge. https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-challenge-2018-01-21
What version are you playing? Gruul, Rakdos, Jund or something else?
I consider Inquiry to be worse than Lore. Often the discard gives you opponent graveyard value and it costs you a card. Goblin Lore finances a turn 2 Hollow One (a YOLO One in this case). It sucks to discard Hollow One, but without Lore you couldn't have cast it anyway. Also, the deck contains enough graveyard value to not make it a very risky move. Don't cast it while you have a great hand though, because it is a midgame mulligan. Reunion does not pay for a turn 2 Hollow One in most cases and it is not always castable. Also a countered Reunion would likely cost you the game.
Introduction
Hollow One is a recent card that is often a turn 1 play of a Burning Inquiry or Street Wraith+Faithless Looting, when you simply cast it for 0. Alternatively you can play it for 1 on turn 2 from a Faithless Looting or from a Goblin Lore for 0. Anyway, you will get an early 4/4 Bolt-proof/Push-proof creature for nearly no effort. Next to Hollow One Flameblade Adept and Flamewake Phoenix are played, which synergize with discard and with each other. With this and some graveyard support you can turn it into a very fast and very resilient deck.
History
There is not that much history yet, but Hollow One decks are on the rise recently. To my knowledge the first record of Hollow One in Modern is from Julian Grace-Martin, who finished 35th in an SCG Open and later 5-0ed a MTGO Competitive League with a Vengevine version in August 2017. People were not familiar with Hollow One at that time and simply named the deck "Dredge" despite it had literally 0 dredge cards. Not much later, Peter Hollman was experimenting in a Rakdos setting, and discovered you don't strictly need Vengevine to make the deck work. Many finishes followed in several tournaments and since the PT it is a widely known deck.
Decklists
There are many ways you can use your Hollow Ones. All styles play pretty different.
1) Gruul Hyperaggro.
This was the first iteration of the deck. It probably has the most maximum power, with perhaps a tradeoff with consistency. Vengevine can make your draws unbeatable, but it is sometimes hard to find the trigger. Anyway, if you want to experience potential turn 1's like THIS, then this deck may be something for you.
3 Goblin Guide
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Hollow One
2 Hooting Mandrills
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Street Wraith
4 Vengevine
SPELLS
4 Cathartic Reunion
4 Faithless Looting
3 Become Immense
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Arid Mesa
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Stomping Ground
4 Mountain
2 Copperline Gorge
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Blood Moon
1 Destructive Revelry
1 Domri Rade
2 Feed the Clan
1 Hazoret the Fervent
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Roast
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Grim Lavamancer
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Noose Constrictor
2 Squee, Goblin Nabob
4 Hollow One
4 Vengevine
OTHER
2 Lightning Axe
4 Fiery Temper
4 Faithless Looting
1 Forest
4 Street Wraith
2 Mountain
3 Stomping Ground
3 Copperline Gorge
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Barrage of Boulders
1 Damping Sphere
3 Destructive Revelry
2 Gnaw to the Bone
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Pithing Needle
This deck is perhaps a little slower than the version above. However, the cards in the deck are a little less situational. Bloodghast is lot easier to trigger than Vengevine, but it makes a lot less impact. In addition, unline most Vengevine decks, these decks capitalize on discard. This makes Flameblade Adept an excellent and reliable 1-drop. Whereas the Gruul deck was the first appearance of Hollow One, the Rakdos deck is thus far the most succesful version with good PT finishes.
This is the deck that finished 4th at the PT. The other 3 decks that I saw at the PT have an identical 60 and near-identical sideboard, so, this is the deck where you should start. Actually in about a year's time (it's Dec 2018 now), the maindeck didn't change at all. Most variation will be in the sideboard.
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
SPELLS (18)
4 Burning Inquiry
2 Collective Brutality
4 Faithless Looting
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Goblin Lore
2 Mountain
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Arid Mesa
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
1 Collective Brutality
2 Fatal Push
3 Grim Lavamancer
3 Leyline of the Void
Other versions
4 Bloodghast
1 Bomat Courier
4 Flameblade Adept
2 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
SPELLS
4 Burning Inquiry
4 Call to the Netherworld
4 Faithless Looting
4 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Canyon Slough
1 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Blood Crypt
3 Mountain
1 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Swamp
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
2 Collective Brutality
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Kari Zev's Expertise
2 Lightning Axe
1 Rakdos Charm
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
3 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
SPELLS
4 Burning Inquiry
2 Collective Brutality
4 Faithless Looting
4 Goblin Lore
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Arid Mesa
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
3 Ancient Grudge
1 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
2 Fatal Push
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Thoughtseize
1 Bedlam Reveler
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
3 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
SPELLS
4 Burning Inquiry
3 Edge of Autumn
4 Faithless Looting
3 Goblin Lore
1 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Hazoret the Fervent
2 Lightning Axe
3 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Thoughtseize
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
SPELLS
4 Burning Inquiry
4 Faithless Looting
4 Goblin Lore
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fiery Temper
2 Edge of Autumn
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
2 Blood Moon
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Lightning Axe
2 Collective Brutality
This direction of the deck is very spell focused. Phoenix is like an inverted Vengevine, so they are totally not compatible with each other. For the rest this deck blends elements from the Rakdos version together with extra spells. It is recently consistently placing results in the MTGO Competitive Leagues and perhaps paper will follow.
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Hollow One
2 Bedlam Reveler
SPELLS
2 Gut Shot
2 Fiery Temper
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
1 Maximize Velocity
3 Goblin Lore
4 Burning Inquiry
4 Faithless Looting
4 Rift Bolt
17 Mountain
1 Ramunap Ruins
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Dismember
1 Gut Shot
1 Hazoret the Fervent
3 Shattering Spree
3 Shrine of Burning Rage
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Tormod's Crypt
Jund. In case you want to mix all the best cards together. Gurmag Angler is usually better than Hooting Mandrils. Also you can play both Vengevine and Bloodghast, with the footnote that together they aren't the best pair as they don't trigger each other. Also I have observed people playing Death's Shadow in Hollow One Jund lists. But then, which Modern deck doesn't have a Death's Shadow variant? Then there is now also a Temur variant. Blue has some looting spells and it has useful cards such as Stubborn Denial, so you can also experiment with that.
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
1 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Goblin Bushwhacker
2 Grim Lavamancer
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Street Wraith
4 Vengevine
SPELLS
2 Cathartic Reunion
4 Faithless Looting
2 Goblin Lore
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Copperline Gorge
2 Mountain
2 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
3 Wooded Foothills
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Blood Moon
2 Collective Brutality
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Electrickery
1 Fatal Push
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Terminate
1 Thoughtseize
3 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Hollow One
4 Hooting Mandrills
4 Insolent Neonate
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Street Wraith
4 Vengevine
SPELLS (15)
2 Cathartic Reunion
2 Chart a Course
4 Faithless Looting
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Thought Scour
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Copperline Gorge
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
2 Stomping Ground
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Become Immense
2 Feed the Clan
1 Grim Lavamancer
2 Hazoret the Fervent
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Roast
2 Stubborn Denial
Card choices
Hollow One
Are you really going to play a Hollow One deck without 4 of these?!?!
Faithless Looting
Faithless Looting = best Looting. Draws cards, discards cards of your choice, and even has flashback. The enabler of the deck. Solid 4-of.
Street Wraith
1) Draws 2) Discards 3) Is delve fuel all for 0 mana and at instant speed. This is the spice that makes Hollow One playable turn 1 of Looting + this. Although it is not castable in Gruul decks, even there it is a solid 4-of.
Vengevine / Bloodghast
The first real choice while building the deck. Are you going for the nuts (Vengevine) or for the more reliable Bloodghast? Sadly these creatures don't synergize with each other, so most people can play only one of them. If you play them, play all 4-of.
- Vengevine has way more impact than Bloodghast. Stats is a clear win for Vengevine: p/t is way higher, it has always haste, it can block, and it triggers Flamewake Phoenix.
- Bloodghast is way more easy to get into play. Playing a land is a lot easier than playing two creatures. Vengevine often requires a lot of planning/timing or just having good luck, while Bloodghast will be activated in most cases without too much hassle. This way Vengevine will dictate how you build your deck and asks you to add a lot of creatures, while Bloodghast doesn't demand any deckbuilding sacrifices. You will see it reflected in the ratings below: Rakdos can simply afford to play better cards than Gruul.
Flameblade Adept (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
A must for Rakdos decks as they capitalize on discard. They also don't have Vengevine, so it is nice to have another potential 4-power trigger for Flamewake Phoenix. This card will deliver a lot of damage for a 1-drop, and it is hard to deal with as it has Menace. It has menace guys! I mean, I just repeat it, as nobody reads this freaking card. I am glad MTGO gives a popup when somebody tried to block it again with 1 creature, so I don't need to explain it every time.
For Gruul decks this is also good, but less ideal. The 1-mana cost is a plus as it is easy to trigger Vengevine with it. However, Flameblade requires timing and Vengevine also requires timing. This clashes on a regular basis. Basically, you want to loot Vengevine turn 1 and trigger it turn 2, but with Adept you want to play Adept turn 1 and loot turn 2 to trigger it. Tough choices...
Flamewake Phoenix (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This card combines well with discard and the big creatures the deck has. Note that also Flameblade Adept triggers Phoenix after discarding 3 or more cards (which happens often). I rate it higher for Rakdos than Gruul, as Gruul often doesn't have the space for this and Phoenix is awkward in triggering Vengevine. Other way around goes well as Vengevine has 4 power. Phoenix is a common 2-of in Gruul and 3-4-of in Rakdos.
Burning Inquiry (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
People are often scared by the random nature. Don't be scared and just let it go, the deck is built to handle it. You might discard Hollow One with it, but remember you couldn't have cast Hollow One anyway without this card, so if you discard it, nothing is lost. This card generates a lot of Delve material, pumps Flameblade Adept to Ferocious, is a graveyard enabler and a Hollow One enabler. Why not 5 stars? Because you go down a card. Also you give your opponent graveyard value. Sometimes this is not relevant, but against Dredge this will cost you the game.
Rakdos likes this as it discards many cards. Gruul less, because it is a non-creature spell and doesn't like to go down too many cards.
Goblin Lore (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Like Inquiry, but this doesn't give your opponents value. Also this is handsize-neutral. This is why I rate it a bit higher than Inquiry, especially for Gruul decks.
Cathartic Reunion (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This is no Dredge, so no high rating. Unlike Burning Inquiry or Goblin Lore this doesn't enable a turn 2 Hollow One or makes Flameblade Adept Ferocious. It is often not castable and a bad topdeck. On top of that, if this gets countered, you are very close to losing the game.
I rate this card a little higher for Gruul than Rakdos, because Gruul decks like to sculpt their hand more for Vengevine than Rakdos decks.
Insolent Neonate (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
This is a near must for Gruul decks and a fringe option for Rakdos. It is good for Gruul because it discards and easily triggers Vengevine. You go down a card, but you get back Vengevine. This card is unimpressive in combat, but it is the glue that holds the deck together. With this, a hand containing Street Wraith, Vengevine, Neonate and Hollow One can get a turn 2 Vengevine + Hollow One. I specifically mention this as I see in streams that many players miss this (Cycle Wraith, Cast Neonate, Discard Vengevine, Cast Hollow One (5-4=1), Trigger Vengevine). Another common turn 2 scenario is Faithless Looting Vengevine, play Neonate, sac Neonate, cast Hollow One for free and trigger Vengevine. For Rakdos, however, this card is not that exciting, only 1 card to discard isn't that great.
Lightning Bolt (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Modern all-star. Automatic 4-of in Rakdos. Not automatic 4-of in Gruul as it doesn't trigger Vengevine.
Grim Lavamancer (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
A solid interaction card for both deck versions as there is usually enough graveyard fuel for it. For Gruul this is an extra attractive option as it is a 1-mana creature, so it is good with Vengevine. It is also playable for Rakdos and often sees play in the sideboard. This card completely wrecks small creature decks and this is when to side it in.
Fiery Temper (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Sees some play in Rakdos decks. Discarding it and casting it is great value. Timing is hard though.
Hooting Mandrils / Gurmag Angler / Tasigur, the Golden Fang
A lot of Delve material, so you can play the delve creatures. Don't play too many though, as you don't want to delve Bloodghasts and such. Therefore I also listed Tasigur, as he is a bit milder for the graveyard.
Collective Brutality (Gruul) / (Rakdos)
Was not in the original primer, but in the past months this card went from sideboard to main deck. Most people playing Rakdos run 2 of these in the main nowadays. It is excellent interaction and the discard clause fits the discard theme well.
And there is further some spice. As with all spices, handle with care!
Arclight Phoenix: HOT NEW CARD. This is probably more than just spice. The place to brew right now.
Bedlam Reveler: castable in Rakdos as it has many spells and a great way to loot a lot. It sees a lot of play in Arclight Phoenix decks.
Burning-Tree Emissary / Reckless Bushwhacker: powerful combo which triggers Vengevine. Nowadays (= end of March) this sees a lot of play in Gruul decks.
Become Immense: can make any creature deadly, works well with the big graveyards.
Goblin Bushwhacker: enables going wide.
Faerie Macabre: that extra discard effect for Hollow One.
Edge of Autumn: that extra cycling effect for when you really need it. It tough with the low land count though.
Goblin Guide/Monastery Swiftspear: hyper aggro option.
Temur Battle Rage: for when you want to win more instead of less.
Call to the Netherworld: recover a cycled Street Wraith or randomly discarded Gurmag Angler.
Bomat Courier: high risk, high reward! Spin the wheel!
Death's Shadow: it actually appeared in some lists because this is Modern!
Noose Constrictor: enables a turn 2 Vengevine + Hollow One. Your hand won't like it though.
Sideboarding and matchups
For Rakdos Hollow One see HERE (by Gabriel Nassif) or HERE (by Mike Sigrist).
Stock sideboard cards
-Blood Moon: for both Gruul and Rakdos there is enough red in the deck to run this without too many sacrifices. And, even if you end up with something uncastable, you can just loot it away. Nearly every deck has it in the sideboard except if you want to next-level your opponent. They will play around Moon game 2/3 anyway, so you might as well leave it out of your deck. Myself I find it too good to not play it.
-Ancient Grudge: Perfect with the graveyard theme. Rakdos decks splash a Stomping Ground to play this.
-Big Game Hunter: For Rakdos decks this is a stock card to deal with the big creatures.
-Grim Lavamancer: Good against little creatures. I also shrink Goyfs with it and let Scavenging Ooze fizzle.
-Collective Brutality: Maindeckable, but you may need more game 2/3.
-Leyline of the Void: Most played graveyard hate. In Rakdos Nihil Spellbomb also sees some play and Faerie Macabre fits in the theme, although it doesn't hate that much. For Gruul decks Tormod's Crypt is actually an option. For Gruul I like Dryad Militant as proactive GY hate.
-Fatal Push: Good removal for Rakdos decks.
More info
A primer of the Rakdos deck made by jdmflcl/Char_Aznable and Nublkau, you can find HERE. HERE is an old version of that primer.
Another primer of the Rakdos deck (by Gabriel Nassif) you can find HERE.
The most recent primer of the Rakdos deck (by Mike Sigrist) you can find HERE.
More discussion about Vengevine-based Hollow One on Reddit HERE (=my deck), and HERE (=most recent thread, not my deck). You can also stay on this forum and go to the Dredgevine thread which nowadays contains as much dredge as the Affinity thread contains affinity.
Here is an interview with Julian Grace-Martin about the Vengevine version.
That does seem a reasonable sideboard. You could try to squeeze in a Troll Ascetic or Thrun, the Last Troll in your 75, because they help a lot in those all-removal decks.
Ah, OK! I already was surprised by the absence of the Bosks. In a past version I didn't play so many Bosks, but that was when I used Aether Vial and with a lot of double-colored Shamans, and in such a situation Bosks become less good. In all other cases I would just run the full set.
I am running 3 currently, and I am considering to add one in the sideboard as well. Running 4 would mean for me to cut Eternal Witness or a Rage Forger, and that is not going to happen. Main reason for running 4 would be the 4 Toughness. Passes Bolt test, Anger of the Gods, Pyroclasm, Firespout, etc. These are the hard bits that stay after a sweeper, which makes it more difficult for many decks to set us aside. It indeed stops Twin and just drains opponents. I played many Melira Pod matches and it has been a while since they came to the stage it could combo. I think the combo is not so relevant in Melira Pod, but still BTS is good for running into Kitchen Finks.
Scapeshift is quite annoying with Firespouts and all those Cryptics/Tap. Sometimes you win before they get their taps online, but in general this match is difficult. Last few matches, however, I failed to draw my Blood Moon and I think that this match looks quite different when there is a Blood Moon in charge.
Actually countering Cryptic Command is a big deal. It is usually how Scapeshift decks stay alive: Cryptic, tap everything, another cryptic, tap everything, Snapcaster Cryptic, tap everything, Snapcaster Cryptic, tap everything, Scapeshift... I should give it a try, however, running 4 of them is quite a lot.
It seems more or less fine. I like the Blood Moon in the side. However, are you sure about Skullcrack in the main? I think this would be for us a sideboard card. Maybe you can replace it by Bosk Banneret. Believe it or not, most of my wins are games where I had a Bosk Banneret online, because that will allow you to flood the opponent. I am curious by the way what you think about Tattermunge Witch, because I never played it and I don't know how good it is. EDIT: I think you can also cut a Guttural Response. I think it is great to counter things like Cryptic Command and Electrolyze, but you don't want to end up with multiples in your hand, because by themselves they don't generate pressure.
I've seen many lists with Karplusan Forest, so I think it is a very legit land. I am sure it won't hurt too much. I am fetching and shocking myself a lot, but that doesn't matter. Remember who is the aggressor in your match, and usually it is you, so you can take a few hits. I am currently playing with Horizon Canopy and in my other deck with City of Brass. With those lands it is not optional to hurt yourself, and still it is not a problem as long as you are the aggressor. Karplusan Forest gives you even the option to use it without damage, so I think it will only hurt you for 1 or 2 damage in a game.
Fauna Shaman is unique and I don't have a replacement for that. The only thing is to run more Lead the Stampede/Commune with Nature for when you want to find the right creature.
The dig spells indeed help. That is why I like Commune with Nature so much. In case of emergency you can dig a Harbinger and get your Rage Forger anyway. However, be sure you draw enough Forgers. It is the thing that makes the deck and without it it is a lion without teeth. Also make sure you have enough turn 1 plays. Without DRS I went for the full creature rush and dump my hand ASAP. I always find it very unsatisfactory to just play a land and pass the turn. Currently, I have 3 Harbinger, 2 Essence Warden, 3 Commune with Nature, and 3 Birds (and 4 lightning bolt) = 11/15, whereas you have only 7/11. I don't know whether I have too many, or you have too few one-drops. Actually I think 7 is not so much when I look at our neighbor Gruul Zoo, which runs a lot more 1 drops than I do. Perhaps Gruul Zoo is an extreme case, but I like to build up pressure starting on turn 1. In case you don't want to play creatures turn 1, you could opt for a land that comes into play tapped, such as Raging Ravine, or Treetop Village. This way, you still have a useful turn 1.
Great! The more people play it, the merrier!
Cavern of Souls will indeed always be good in this deck. I don't know what the optimum is. I have currently 4, but in the past I had 3 because I needed often colored mana for activation costs. Also the less counterspells in your meta, the less Caverns you will need. I don't how many Stomping Ground you will need. I have currently 2, because I fetch, but the closely related Gruul Zoo deck runs the full 4. Also Copperline Gorge is good, because the restriction of 3 lands to be untapped is not really relevant in this deck.
I currently run 21 lands. 22 is absolutely too much, but I don't know about 20. I feel like with 21 the floods and screws more or less cancel eachother out.
Bolts are good, I think the full 4 is fine. By the way, you should also give the Commune with Nature a try, because it is good to set up your game on turn 1 already. Also, if you topdeck it, you can usually immediately use it and cast a creature, while with Lead the Stampede the casting often costs you the whole turn. I would replace the bow for something else, because other users found the bow too slow. I myself never tried it, because I too think it would be too slow. A spicy replacement would be Domri Rade or Shared Animosity. Even Gruul War Chant would not be bad.
Yes, the chump block is an often overlooked quality of Birds. Also its mana is the best you can get. On the other hand Llanowar Elves are better with Wolf-Skull Shaman (Elf Kinship).
In my experience Skinshifter also rarely stays. It gets electrolyzed very often. Another problem is that it gets often bolted in response to its activation (and you can activate him only once/turn). Four of them is a lot and hard to activate them in multiples. You could try some Fauna Shaman in that slot. It has also a nice synergy with useless topdecked Birds, which you can exchange for Rage Forger.
Absolutely. I also run only 3. The reasoning is that I want to draw one of them and never two. Also, after a Harbinger you know you will be drawing Rage Forger, but sometimes you really need land, and then Harbinger becomes awkward. Sometimes I even cast Harbinger and then I don't look up Rage Forger because I really need land. Harbinger is sometimes great, sometimes a useless 1/1.
Fauna Shamans do excellent work for me. Burning-Tree Shaman is nowadays a lot better than in the past, because I think sweepers (anger of the gods) became more prevalent and Burning-Tree is one of the few that stays. Twin plays bolts and Anger, so it is for sure good against them. They will side in Flameslash, but often Burning-Tree is already 4/5 by then. Take into account that you will also take some damage from him (Skinshifter). Eternal Witness is always great. That is why I also run Commune with Nature over Lead the Stampede, because then there is at least always something in the grave,
For artifact hate I think Ancient Grudge would be the best. Grafdigger's Cage is also a nice one for the grave, because on top of that it stops Pod decks completely. Not only Pod and Chord of Calling, but also persist from Kitchen Finks and Murderous Redcap. Be careful to not "oversideboard", because if you have 2 Pithing Needles out and two Grafdiggers Cages, you slowed down your opponent, but then you spend 4 cards for slowing down your opponent, instead of spending 4 cards for winning your own match. This is why I like cards such as Destructive Revelry so much, because besides slowing down your opponent, you are still progressing your own goal. Anyway, for your sideboard you also need to know your meta. My sideboard is constantly changing, because the MTGO meta is constantly changing.