My meta is pretty small and there is currently no major graveyard themed decks in it, though the relics would have been useful against the UWR control. Actually against Mardu tokens too, now that I think about it. Hmmmm...what do you think about pulling needle for Relic? Seems very reasonable. Also, has anyone done a match up sideboard template? What goes in and what comes up in certain MU's That would be super helpful...
So what are we thinking are the best side board options with the new unbans? Supreme Verdict is problematic in UWR control already. Its tough to win turn 4 with no interaction and with bolts and paths flying around, its pretty much impossible. I had some reasonable luck with the 7 seas plan (4 spreading seas main, 3 Seas claim SB) against them since their mana base is a weak spot. I was running Kopola and am thinking Kira would be better. The 2 mana isn't good enough in a longer game. I didn't board in my Chalices tonight, which I think was a bit of a mistake. (I didn't board out the vials either, which was another mistake in that match up I think. Stony silence is a thing...) IDK, but it looks like grindy roads ahead. I still like the 7 seas plan since jund is another problematic mana base you can exploit with it. Chalice is still solid too. My other slots are dedicated to Pithing Needle and Skite. Which also seem reasonable. Currently my plan is swapping out the Kopola for Kira main. SB I'm kinda stuck on though. I know I effed up bad tonight with keeping the vials in game 2 when cavern is a thing. Any ideas? I went 2-0-1 with the draw to UWR Control. Beat a Mardu Tokens deck and the Mono U extra turns combo. In hind sight I would have used Chalice set at 1 in the Mono U mu. I could have hamstrung the gigadrowse if nothing else. Mardu once again is a week mana base and is really weak to the seas plan. Any thoughts would be welcome.
I just had this conversation with a guy at our LGS and since I hadn't been paying attention to modern as of late, I told him the wrong answer. Ugh. I think the best way to put is mono blue is always the best merfolk deck, unless another color gives you access to silver gill adept 5-8...lol. Granted its not exactly SGA, but its close and if there is one thing fish love to do, its cantrip. So this leads me to my question: has anyone had any luck with Deeproot Champion? I know he seems geared much more for a tempo build than the standard aggro fish that have kinda become the norm, but he seems good. Currently trying him in a flooding variant where I'm running all the standard stuff except for the instants, plus Branchwalker and Champion with 4 Spreading Seas and 4 Sea's Claim. Champ will grow off of the enchantments and vials. But honestly I'm torn. Kumena's Speaker just seems better. 2/2 for 1 is aggro gold, especially when you can expect it to grow...
Mono white and red Akroma(s) are both solid places to start. Mono red Zirilan is nice for some dragon flavor. Godo can be fun for a voltron samurai build. Kamahl is solid in mono green. Crovax in white or black can be effective. Volrath is pretty fun for mb with reanimate shenanigans. Baron Sengir or Kalitas or Drana for some vampire flavor. Memnarch is fun in blue. If you wanna mess with your opponents toys Sakashima the Imposter or Empress Galina can be a blast.
I'm not saying skill is a non factor. But top 8 is also not winning. In fact, I'm not sure you can even use top 8 as a stat since a lot of the pros get through the first 3-4 rounds with buys, ergo, they aren't even playing the game in the most volatile rounds. I would say that the deeper into a tourney someone gets, the more the outcome is dependent on skill because the amount of variance diminishes. Look, I'm not saying these guys aren't amazing players who know the game on a level I couldn't even dream of, I'm just saying that anytime you randomize anything, getting what you need, when you need it requires some luck at some point. Again though you're looking at the exceptions to try and prove a rule. Who is to say that professional magic players are not inherently luck individuals? Or on a given day, luck favored them more. I know it's a huge nebulous concept but what if Watanabe is just more lucky than most? I'm just kinda going off on a tangent that really isn't necessary. The pros are good at the game. Everything that they can have control over, they do, and yet they lose. If luck was such a non factor, how come they lose so often? Especially at gps were they have to mingle with the common folk. Even in games and sports where luck and change are almost a non factor, it is still a factor. That is the nature of a game.
Allow me to put it another way: if I were to hold a chambered pistol to your head while you draw, you live if you're right, not so much if you're wrong: how confident are you? 43%? Here is the point: plain and simply there is a massive element of chance in magic, it's just the game. I'm not saying there isn't a lot of skill involved or intelligence involve. But when you have the best players in the world going to the gps and they are not in the finals every single time, how does that happen? If its mostly a skill based game, professional magic players should by rights be in every gp finals. You can say oh well they don't play modern often or aren't familiar enough with their decks, but I call bs. These guys live and breath mtg. Or how about the 12 year old that I believe got to a finals running a Zoo deck recently(last couple years). You're gonna tell me that a 12 year old possessed enough skill to wreck an entire field in two days? I don't care how much of a prodigy you are, in two days straight of gaming, luck matters.
Edit: Sorry for the grime analogy. It was the only way I could express the impetuous of a top draw, at least that I could come up with.
In describing MTG to "outsiders" in the past I've sometimes described it as a combination of Poker and Chess. It's a card game where you shuffle your cards, so there's randomization and variance involved. And yes, early round pairings and die rolls are "luck" based (although both are still within certain expected parameters). But that's basically the extent of it. Everything else is closer to the skill portions of Poker or Chess, including reading your opponents and bluffing correctly.
If you were to put a number to the amount of luck is involved, I'd say it's no more than 5%. Even that number seems extraordinarily high to me. If you play 100 games, will you win or lose around 5 due to "luck" factors? Sure. But the vast majority of the time you win or lose it has nothing to do with luck.
I take issue with this, which is weird because we are usually on the same page. 5%? Every single card you draw is random right? And every game, provided you have been already lucky with your meta, will come down to drawing the right card at the right time while your opponent draws the wrong card at the right time? I'd say the relevance of chance in a game of magic has to be significantly higher than 5%.
I actually think it might have seen its bottom already. Its one of those cards that really flies under the radar. Its fairly costed with a powerful effect. Of course it dies to everything but it screams build around me. I got mine at $4 per. Seems like it's going up now again. It's really early but it's a very unique card, being the creature version of Crucible of Worlds. And considering Crucible is like nearly a $70 card, a redundancy of the effect would be pretty welcome in any casual deck or edh deck that keys on that ability. So that is the first part of my argument. This is not speculation but fact. The second half of the argument is more speculative. Given the prevalence of the desert keyword in the last two sets it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that WotC is pushing some kind of standard land deck package. Will it develop or dry on the vine, who knows, but there are lots of fun tricks to be discovered with it in standard alone. Modern also has possible pre-existing homes for it. I think it would be a fine creature off of a CoCo and cards like ghost quarter get gross really quick with recursion.
Short term (within the first year) its price will be mostly regulated by its standard play(or lack thereof). If it finds a home there, its price will likely only go up. And considering that it's already going to be an EDH card, it's a rare in a summer set and it has a lot of Johnny appeal already any buy under $6 should be safe, long term (more than a year.) I do think it has potential to be the best card in the set even though the scarab god and Bolas are a bit flashier.
My two cents: First of all we need to define what "luck" is. For a quick and sloppy analysis we'll just associated it to randomness. Then good luck is having the randomness inexplicably tilt in your favor, bad luck is inexplicably against your interest. The randomness of a magic deck is significantly less than that of a deck of playing cards. So, even when putting two competing decks head to head, the amount randomness, purely in card draw would still be less than a deck of playing cards. Now there is another level of "luck" that is relevant and it comes in the form of meta gaming. Decks have good and bad matchups where a deck can be favored purely on design principle. Aggro is favored vs control but is not against tron type decks for example. Going into an unknown meta is a crap shoot. You can mitigate your chances by playing a tiered deck but ultimately until you familiarize yourself with the environment, it is significantly random.
Overall, I think people attribute way too much of the game to skill and ignore the luck aspect far too often because "being lucky" does very little to the ego...lol. Don't get me wrong: there is a significant amount of skill in the form of game intellect and moxie that the best players possess but ultimately a couple no land opening hands will end their day just as quickly as a novice.
Lol. I mistyped, though recurring it is also an option with excavator. I meant that it is repeatable, using other deserts to sac for its ability. Usually its sac said card with ability to activate an ability. These are sac a land type. An interesting direction to take the game Wizards, well played...
While its true that you are generating tokens at the same rate as other cards, you are also effectively removing it from play as an attacker or blocker for two turns as well. So you effectively have a 4/4 that is tapped and won't untap during your next untap step and two 1/1 life linkers turn four. So you will be able to swing with it on turn 6 essentially. How good is that again? Also, never have the crux of your evaluation of a card move so quickly into the premise of "if such and such a card is in play" etc. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas. It's really close to being good. I don't think it gets there though. Maybe in edh...
Note, I cannot speak for standard so it may be fine there.
Edit: Sorry for the grime analogy. It was the only way I could express the impetuous of a top draw, at least that I could come up with.
I take issue with this, which is weird because we are usually on the same page. 5%? Every single card you draw is random right? And every game, provided you have been already lucky with your meta, will come down to drawing the right card at the right time while your opponent draws the wrong card at the right time? I'd say the relevance of chance in a game of magic has to be significantly higher than 5%.
Short term (within the first year) its price will be mostly regulated by its standard play(or lack thereof). If it finds a home there, its price will likely only go up. And considering that it's already going to be an EDH card, it's a rare in a summer set and it has a lot of Johnny appeal already any buy under $6 should be safe, long term (more than a year.) I do think it has potential to be the best card in the set even though the scarab god and Bolas are a bit flashier.
My two cents.
Overall, I think people attribute way too much of the game to skill and ignore the luck aspect far too often because "being lucky" does very little to the ego...lol. Don't get me wrong: there is a significant amount of skill in the form of game intellect and moxie that the best players possess but ultimately a couple no land opening hands will end their day just as quickly as a novice.
Note, I cannot speak for standard so it may be fine there.