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    posted a message on How much luck is involved in Magic?
    I'm not saying skill is a non factor. But top 8 is also not winning. In fact, I'm not sure you can even use top 8 as a stat since a lot of the pros get through the first 3-4 rounds with buys, ergo, they aren't even playing the game in the most volatile rounds. I would say that the deeper into a tourney someone gets, the more the outcome is dependent on skill because the amount of variance diminishes. Look, I'm not saying these guys aren't amazing players who know the game on a level I couldn't even dream of, I'm just saying that anytime you randomize anything, getting what you need, when you need it requires some luck at some point. Again though you're looking at the exceptions to try and prove a rule. Who is to say that professional magic players are not inherently luck individuals? Or on a given day, luck favored them more. I know it's a huge nebulous concept but what if Watanabe is just more lucky than most? I'm just kinda going off on a tangent that really isn't necessary. The pros are good at the game. Everything that they can have control over, they do, and yet they lose. If luck was such a non factor, how come they lose so often? Especially at gps were they have to mingle with the common folk. Even in games and sports where luck and change are almost a non factor, it is still a factor. That is the nature of a game.
    Posted in: Modern
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    posted a message on How much luck is involved in Magic?
    Quote from rcwraspy »
    In describing MTG to "outsiders" in the past I've sometimes described it as a combination of Poker and Chess. It's a card game where you shuffle your cards, so there's randomization and variance involved. And yes, early round pairings and die rolls are "luck" based (although both are still within certain expected parameters). But that's basically the extent of it. Everything else is closer to the skill portions of Poker or Chess, including reading your opponents and bluffing correctly.

    If you were to put a number to the amount of luck is involved, I'd say it's no more than 5%. Even that number seems extraordinarily high to me. If you play 100 games, will you win or lose around 5 due to "luck" factors? Sure. But the vast majority of the time you win or lose it has nothing to do with luck.


    I take issue with this, which is weird because we are usually on the same page. 5%? Every single card you draw is random right? And every game, provided you have been already lucky with your meta, will come down to drawing the right card at the right time while your opponent draws the wrong card at the right time? I'd say the relevance of chance in a game of magic has to be significantly higher than 5%.
    Posted in: Modern
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    posted a message on How much luck is involved in Magic?
    My two cents: First of all we need to define what "luck" is. For a quick and sloppy analysis we'll just associated it to randomness. Then good luck is having the randomness inexplicably tilt in your favor, bad luck is inexplicably against your interest. The randomness of a magic deck is significantly less than that of a deck of playing cards. So, even when putting two competing decks head to head, the amount randomness, purely in card draw would still be less than a deck of playing cards. Now there is another level of "luck" that is relevant and it comes in the form of meta gaming. Decks have good and bad matchups where a deck can be favored purely on design principle. Aggro is favored vs control but is not against tron type decks for example. Going into an unknown meta is a crap shoot. You can mitigate your chances by playing a tiered deck but ultimately until you familiarize yourself with the environment, it is significantly random.

    Overall, I think people attribute way too much of the game to skill and ignore the luck aspect far too often because "being lucky" does very little to the ego...lol. Don't get me wrong: there is a significant amount of skill in the form of game intellect and moxie that the best players possess but ultimately a couple no land opening hands will end their day just as quickly as a novice.
    Posted in: Modern
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    posted a message on Limited Resources spoiler: Uncommon Desert Cycle
    Lol. I mistyped, though recurring it is also an option with excavator. I meant that it is repeatable, using other deserts to sac for its ability. Usually its sac said card with ability to activate an ability. These are sac a land type. An interesting direction to take the game Wizards, well played...
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Remove storm cards from the format and you can have all the cantrips you want...

    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Comeback after it has a GP or two under its belt with some solid placements. I mean, CC has been on my watch list since it was printed. I am seriously anti-combo, so much so that it is in my sig. The deck did not need another easy combo, but it got one anyway. What your describing sounds an awful lot similar to what pod and twin would do. Pod was held in check with hate for a time. Twin never really was. Therein lies the difference between those two decks. Company has a similar feel but also has a bit of randomness sprinkled in which makes it a bit less consistent or at least it can be. As long as there aren't any deck stacking options viable, that may be enough. Metas shift. If its still around and putting up big numbers or results in 6 months I think it'll be worth another look. Until then, prepare to see it. Give up a handful of SB slots to hating on it. We've had enough bannings in modern for a while.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Agreed. Seriously its like the salvation is taking lessons from the donald trump school of alternative facts.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Regarding the new tiering structure: This sucks. We had a system in place that broke down the best decks viability in a said meta with statistical and real world information and they take it way for a veritable kitchen table love fest. WTF? Seriously.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on Temporary 4/24/17 banlist discussion thread
    Good to see this. Meta looks healthy and is ripe for an unban. Does it need it? No. But this is the perfect environment to set loose a card or two and see what shakes out. If it goes bad, hey we know where the offender is. I sometimes wish there was a month or two month hold on new cards entering the format.Even a couple of weeks that would allow for some testing and for the meta to get nailed down upon the new cards coming in. I know that's asking too much, but I think it would help the format overall. Besides, most new cards take a while to filter into modern, unless they are slam dunks, of course.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on Staff transition and farewell
    Thank you for your time, dedication and patience. And best wishes going forward. Thank you again.
    Posted in: Modern
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