@italofoca I think I'm mostly on board with what you're saying. Like I mentioned before, "mostly solved" is sort of a weird term to use right now insofar as this is the most volatile Standard environment I can remember since I started playing. That being said, there are still a few known quantities, and the Bant decks are still primarily Nissa decks. This format is crazy with regards to flex slots, with people going back and forth on individual card choices almost constantly. Can I imagine a decklist showing up with a singleton Mu in the main or board? Absolutely. Would I bet on it? Nope.
You're totally right, people don't always (a/k/a never) accurately predict the meta, which is how major price spikes happen in Standard. My musings are simply that. But we still have some information we can be pretty sure about, and I think that helps us make informed decisions about what we play in the early days of the format. Heck, that's why mono-red tends to do well early--people are dicking about with new cards to see whether or not they're good. Still doesn't mean we shouldn't think about it.
I guess if I had to boil down my point it would be that I don't see why you shouldn't be able to make an educated guess about something even if you ultimately turn out to be incorrect. Frankly, I like it when people tell me I'm wrong and give me reasons. If someone's argument is persuasive enough, I might change my mind. That's how I grow as a player.
TL;DR: Mu is most certainly NOT trash; regardless, I don't foresee her seeing much if any play in this current Standard format; talking about new cards' utility in new formats is fun and is, I think, productive; and, this game is awesome and we all have our love of it in common. Good talk.
She reminds me of Erza Scarlet in Fairy Tail with her "Heaven's Wheel" armor. I'm pretty excited about this. Pretty sure this will be non-bird #5 in Kangee, the others being Soraya, the Falconer, Sun Titan, Emeria Angel, and Pride of the Clouds.
There is always cards that slips everyone's radars and cards that people hype that don't see any play. It's always like this because cards can only be evaluated in a vacuum but whether or not they see play depends on what will be released in the future and how the environment shapes up. It even depends on out-of-the-game factors like how much people are spending in the game.
You can't use playability to measure quality because playability depends on many factors other then quality. Your claim that this card does not see any play in any of the current meta decks is futile for many, many reasons: (i) the current meta is not solved; (ii) this card is not part of this format; (iii) no one can predict how the meta shifts with a new set with any degree of certainty, this is hard fact of reality; (iv) even if you could, M20 is not fully spoiled; (v) there are local variation of meta, even in high level competition, and you can't possibly account for all this.
It's not people that are bad at evaluating cards, it's just that they don't use your evaluation criteria because it is useless.
Saying evaluating a card in the context of the existing meta is useless when we have 2/3rds of the next set doesn't make any sense to me. As volatile as this format has been, it's still mostly "solved" insofar as the pillars of the format have been pretty much established. This Standard format is about Teferi, Time Raveler decks, Nissa, Who Shakes the World decks, and the various forms of aggro. To a lesser extent we have Arclight Phoenix decks. I guess Nexus of Fate is still around somewhere.
We've seen a huge chunk of M20 already, and nothing looks like it will result in format upheaval like the release of WAR. Again, I can't speak to future formats with additional sets, but as far as evaluation goes RIGHT NOW, this card just isn't as good as Teferi or Narset, and thus I think it will see little to no immediate play. This is not to say the card is a bad card by any measure, it's just not well-supported currently. I would never argue that quality equates to playability. Tons of great cards see no play (look at Tezzeret, Artifice Master). Also, I've played many "bad" cards because they were well-positioned at a specific point in time (there was a time where I wrecked people with sideboard Woodlot Crawlers, for example). But saying no one can predict how a new set will impact the current metagame is untrue. If a new card competes with existing cards that are more generically powerful, something else has to happen to make the new card viable. I don't see anything in the current spoilers that would indicate Mu slots well into any existing deck, nor do I see any indication that she would be the basis of some new archetype.
However, by several posters' logic, there's no point in evaluating cards AT ALL before a set releases. If that were the case, what? Everyone just puts random good stuff in their decks with literally no consideration to the existing metagame? I'm pretty sure that's not how it works. Whether I'm right or wrong remains to be seen, but saying the exercise of trying to predict a new card's viability is fruitless is a disservice to MtG players. To a great extent, it's the entire reason there's a spoiler season.
Saying that a card is bad is just as silly as saying a card is good at this point because we haven't seen it in play or in action yet. After that then arguments favouring either side are acceptable and more valid.
'buster
I don't disagree with this in principal, but it's also not absolute. We've been playing with a lot of these cards for a long time and understand how they interact. I would say--understanding there's more M20 to be spoiled that could change this--we can look at the meta and cards spoiled so far and can at least make an educated guess about a new card's power level.
New Kaalia might be weaker in Commander, but she's much better than the old one in the context of this Standard. Old Kaalia is a 4-CMC 2/2, does not have the benefit of Lightning Greaves or Swiftfoot Boots, dies to Shock, and as far as I know there's no game-ending things to put out like Master of Cruelties. Not to mention that for one more mana, you basically get a 6/6 trampling, recursive Kaalia with no typing restriction in Ilharg, the Raze-Boar.
New Kaalia gives you immediate value on a perfectly acceptable body for the cost. There are a bunch of aggressively costed Angel/Dragon/Demon threats in Standard right now. Certainly seems like this a potential competitive build-around considering it appears that WotC might be pushing Angels in Core 2020.
1
You're totally right, people don't always (a/k/a never) accurately predict the meta, which is how major price spikes happen in Standard. My musings are simply that. But we still have some information we can be pretty sure about, and I think that helps us make informed decisions about what we play in the early days of the format. Heck, that's why mono-red tends to do well early--people are dicking about with new cards to see whether or not they're good. Still doesn't mean we shouldn't think about it.
I guess if I had to boil down my point it would be that I don't see why you shouldn't be able to make an educated guess about something even if you ultimately turn out to be incorrect. Frankly, I like it when people tell me I'm wrong and give me reasons. If someone's argument is persuasive enough, I might change my mind. That's how I grow as a player.
TL;DR: Mu is most certainly NOT trash; regardless, I don't foresee her seeing much if any play in this current Standard format; talking about new cards' utility in new formats is fun and is, I think, productive; and, this game is awesome and we all have our love of it in common. Good talk.
1
1
Saying evaluating a card in the context of the existing meta is useless when we have 2/3rds of the next set doesn't make any sense to me. As volatile as this format has been, it's still mostly "solved" insofar as the pillars of the format have been pretty much established. This Standard format is about Teferi, Time Raveler decks, Nissa, Who Shakes the World decks, and the various forms of aggro. To a lesser extent we have Arclight Phoenix decks. I guess Nexus of Fate is still around somewhere.
We've seen a huge chunk of M20 already, and nothing looks like it will result in format upheaval like the release of WAR. Again, I can't speak to future formats with additional sets, but as far as evaluation goes RIGHT NOW, this card just isn't as good as Teferi or Narset, and thus I think it will see little to no immediate play. This is not to say the card is a bad card by any measure, it's just not well-supported currently. I would never argue that quality equates to playability. Tons of great cards see no play (look at Tezzeret, Artifice Master). Also, I've played many "bad" cards because they were well-positioned at a specific point in time (there was a time where I wrecked people with sideboard Woodlot Crawlers, for example). But saying no one can predict how a new set will impact the current metagame is untrue. If a new card competes with existing cards that are more generically powerful, something else has to happen to make the new card viable. I don't see anything in the current spoilers that would indicate Mu slots well into any existing deck, nor do I see any indication that she would be the basis of some new archetype.
However, by several posters' logic, there's no point in evaluating cards AT ALL before a set releases. If that were the case, what? Everyone just puts random good stuff in their decks with literally no consideration to the existing metagame? I'm pretty sure that's not how it works. Whether I'm right or wrong remains to be seen, but saying the exercise of trying to predict a new card's viability is fruitless is a disservice to MtG players. To a great extent, it's the entire reason there's a spoiler season.
1
I don't disagree with this in principal, but it's also not absolute. We've been playing with a lot of these cards for a long time and understand how they interact. I would say--understanding there's more M20 to be spoiled that could change this--we can look at the meta and cards spoiled so far and can at least make an educated guess about a new card's power level.
1
New Kaalia gives you immediate value on a perfectly acceptable body for the cost. There are a bunch of aggressively costed Angel/Dragon/Demon threats in Standard right now. Certainly seems like this a potential competitive build-around considering it appears that WotC might be pushing Angels in Core 2020.