BUT it's only a threat on t3 if you have Heir of Falkenrath out on t2. Think about it all the other discard outlets require 1 or 2 mana which means 90% of the time you'll need 4 mana to cast Youths for its madness cost. And Youths on t4 is pretty terrible unless it's played via Olivia but the chances of you untapping with Olivia are pretty low so I wouldn't focus my gameplan on her.
Personally I'm way more interested in a vampire control deck using Elusive Tormentor and Heir of Falkenrath as main win cons and just having a bunch of interaction and madness shenanigans. I just don't like playing with bad creatures.
You know I just realized Olivia, Mobilized for War probably won't even be played in most vampire tribal decks. I read the card again and I just don't see her being that important to the strategy. I think you could probably be fine or even do better without her and have more interaction/removal or disruption instead. Ravenous Bloodseeker is also kind of underwhelming without something like Become Immense. It's basically only a 1/3 blocker or a 3/1 discard outlet but you already have plenty of ways to discard so he is uneeded. Asylum Visitor is definitely a better 2 drop that can turn into much needed card advantage when you're hellbent or when both players are in top deck mode.
Something I just noticed, getting Delirium for To the Slaughter could prove to be tricky since most of the time you're not going to want to discard a land but discard an instant/creature with madness instead. Sinister Concoction allows you to get an enchantment in the graveyard and has the chance of milling a land. So that's cool. I might also consider playing with Evolving Wilds over the battlelands and maybe have more sorceries to enable Delirium because I do feel like it's important to have a clean answer to planeswalkers.
The New UB and UBR Eldrazi agro decks will be coming to the party too. They lose 0 cards from their shell (other than mana fixing and that can be fixed easily) and right now are throwing a random 5-0 here and there in MTGO leagues and the prices of some cards have been jumping up. Here is an Example of a list that went 5-0.
That deck loses Ghostfire Blade which is 75% of the reason why the deck is even winning as an aggro deck. It also loses Stubborn Denial which is the best counterspell because Ghostfire Blade on any 2 power creature enables ferocious. So I don't think this particular deck will still be strong enough after rotation. The best combination is with Jeskai because of Eldrazi Displacer imo but I could also see a Temur CoCo variation.
Pros aren't perfect beings. In fact they often admit they didn't really put much thought on the manabase and it could probably be improved.
When I see too many tap lands or pain lands in a list that tries to go 4 color I already question the deck list no matter who designed it. I'll rework on the manabase to make it more consistent or less slow.
Then there's card choices. Some choices may not seem to make much sense because X card just seems better or whatever. However one thing that's harder to understand is that the meta of an SCG open may not be the same as a pro tour or as your local FNM. So if you just copy the 75 chances are you won't do as well as the pros because you have failed to adapt the list to your meta. Maybe Arashin Cleric isn't needed in the sideboard/main if no one plays Atarka in your meta. Maybe Despise/Transgress the Mind is better than Duress if everyone and their mother plays Eldrazi ramp. etc.
ok guys i'm sure you see it, but what is even up with Modern in the last three months?
i've seen more severe and frequent price spikes in this recent time than at any point I can remember in Magic history, barring a couple of bizarre corner cases.
what's going on? can we somehow stop it?
Some spikes are natural or make sense like Eye of Ugin for example. Even before the pro tour some people were playtesting BW eldrazi processors online and it looked very strong. So naturally some people speculated on these cards before Oath was even out and those people made a good chunk of change. These are smart specs that happen from time to time when brewers are ahead of everyone else.
But there are also groups of people who have the power to hi-jack the secondary market. A single rich person could not do it as effectively as it's much easier/faster when you are a few hundred buying out the same card at the same time. Some stores panic when they see a huge strange spike and hide their supply which contributes to those cards spiking even more and even faster. Then those people sell/trade back the cards at a profit and start over again with another card. Basically it doesn't really matter what card they choose and for what reason, if everyone buys it out they will control its value for a short period of time. It's a scary trend for the players trying to get into modern but it's not really against the law and WotC doesn't care since they only make money from selling sealed product.
Rally will be gone but there are a few candidates that could potentially replace it to make Aristocrat type decks still a thing:
1. March From the Tomb. Sure, it only gets back allies but Kalastria Healer and Zulaport Cutthroat may be the only creatures you truly need to get back. And SOI will have new ways to throw a ton of cards into your graveyard.
2. Vile Redeemer. Aristocrat decks only care about having things to sac and death triggers. Vile Redeemer gives you a bunch of scions to sac for mana or to sac to Nantuko Husk. If you have two Zulaports in play this is GG and Vile Redeemer has the advantage of being a cast trigger so counterspells can't stop it.
There's also no telling what kind of reanimation shenanigans or recurring creatures could be in SOI so I wouldn't count Aristocrats completely out. They will need ways to deal with Kalitas but also no longer need to worry about Anafenza.
Now before anyone says "But it doesn't kill Siege Rhino/Tasigur" you have to keep in mind it's an instant and that's huge. It means you can chump block with a token then finish the creature off end step. If it was sorcery then you would need to suicide attack with a 1/1 hoping your opponent would be dumb enough to block with Tasigur when you have BB mana up.
but you have to spend turn 3 and 4 dropping your Oath followed by Narset which means protecting her is heavily dependent on dropping a Jace or Advocate on 2. If you manage to miss your 2 drop or don't catch Narset when you either have or are able to have an Oath on the board, then it becomes harder to set up for her. It just feels like just having her there is expecting your opponent to not interact with your board or that you're setting up too much for "magical Christmas land".
So I thought about it a lot and you're half right:
There is never a line (when I'm on the play) where Abzan Aggro can curve out perfectly and also interact sufficiently at the same time to clear my blockers and have 7 power in play. So Narset in most cases is almost guaranteed to survive for a turn of combat damage against a lot of aggro decks (which is why they are better off ignoring her otherwise she gains me a lot time and prevents a lot of damage).
Now if they are on the play of course it's a different story and they clearly have the speed advantage. But I'm not forced to play Narset on t4. I could simply fog on t4, then Planar Outburst on t5 and drop her after I've cleaned up the board. Or chump block for a while and use removal on Siege Rhino. That would be a better gameplan than going t4 Narset on the draw.
So what I take from this is that Narset should probably be a 2 of (but have more in the sideboard vs mid-range and control) and I should have more removal to interact early. But this is assuming the meta is super aggro oriented. If the meta slows down or if tier 1 decks keep aggro decks in check then 3x Narset is fine.
You could always try some gimmicks with the Displacer + Baloth Null to get back Den Protector and some ETB creatures. But yeah 6 mana is rough without some form of ramp or reanimation. At that point you're better off with Woodland Bellower or Greenwarden of Murasa.
I agree this set is very powerful and has a lot of cards that will impact standard and modern in a big way.
But Sphinx of the Final Word is only a sideboard card for control mirrors. There's literally no way people will choose to play it over Dragonlord Ojutai or any other win condition basically.
I have to say, I'm just not a fan of Narset Transcendent. She misses 33 cards of your 60 card deck (just over 50%) and has no way to protect herself.
She doesn't need to protect herself because she is protected by: 1. Sylvan Advocate, 2. flipped Jace (quick to flip with Oath of Jace and fetchlands), 3. Oath of Gideon (creates two chump blockers + gives her one more loyalty), 4. Fogs and 5. Planar Outburst. And even with none of those things she goes up to 7 loyalty which isn't the same as a 4 loyalty planeswalker (which need more protection). There is no Hero's Downfall in the format and not many decks run more than 1-2 Ruinous Path so the main way to deal with walkers is via direct combat damage and not many decks can do 7+ damage on t4. Only Abzan Aggro and Atarka Red I guess. But aggro decks are often better off ignoring her and trying to go for the kill before I get to Planar Outburst. Attacking her is only buying me more time and essentially preventing damage for 2 turns.
You're also forgetting that Oath of Jace allows me to scry X. Scrying in combination with Narset is pretty powerful. A lot more powerful than you seem to realize. I know because I was already using Narset in conjuction with scry lands, Jace, the Living Guildpact and Courser of Kruphix. Of course the Bant deck was pretty bad back then because mono red burn was too quick and RG devotion was dropping Dragonlord Atarka on t4. But Atarka red doesn't have anywhere near as much reach as mono red did and a single fog or instant speed removal can completely shut the combo down.
So I'm really alone thinking this card is stupid good huh? 4/5 is Tasigur, the Golden Fang stats except no delve required, no legendary restrictions, no tapping required to attack and has upside of pumping manlands. Except you can't get Tasigur back with Ojutai's Command. Imagine if you could, that would make a great surprise block. Well now you can get back a 4/5 creature that spreads its power accross lands. So in reality you are getting 6/7 power/toughness accross 2 bodies.
And if you've ever played with Topan Freeblade you know how that card absolutely destroys goblin tokens without even trying. Well 2/3 vigilance eats up 2/2 tokens all day and survives Wild Slash, Radiant Flames for 2 or Kozilek's Return. Main difference is that you're happy to draw Sylvan Advocate on t7 unlike Topan Freeblade.
I think the main reason why so many people are under evaluating him is because they only think about tribal Elves or Abzan Aggro strategies and those decks don't want to stick around until turn 6 or turn 7. But Sylvan Advocate won't be great in those decks because it's a worse clock than Warden of the First Tree or any 3/1 for 2 mana early game. Playing Sylvan Advocate in aggro only is like playing Ulamog in a deck that has 0 ramp imo.
New take on the Bant version. The biggest change is I'm dropping Nissa, Voice of Zendikar entirely as I don't feel like she works well with this new direction I'm going for. Nissa is more about going wide and pumping creature cards. But this isn't token/creature oriented and I feel like Gideon is enough.
Tech time: I can use Jace and Oath of Jace to pitch any extra Sylvan Advocate to the graveyard. This way if they Ugin -4, I can end step Ojutai's Command to get back Sylvan Advocate. Then kill Ugin with 4/5 Advocate and attack them with 5/5 Lumbering Falls. Or maybe even ignore Ugin and kill them if I have 1-2 emblems out.
Blue allows for Jace, Oath of Jace and Dig which I find more powerful and interesting than Oath of Nissa overall (what if one of the top 3 cards is a Planar Outburst you need?). Oath of Jace draws 3. You keep those 3 amazing cards and throw away cards you don't need. That is very good card selection + obviously fuels delve to Dig. Not to mention blue also gives me access to counterspells post-board which is relevant vs Eldrazi Ramp.
Not a lot of interesting spells to rebound with Narset unfortunately. But I'm thinking about mostly using her +1. With only 8 creatures she will draw me a lot of cards. And she can always rebound Ojutai's Command, Planar Outburst and Dig Trhough Time which is great. Also with Oath of Gideon she is just 2 activations away from ultimate range which destroys a lot of strategies.
I considered Kiora, Master of the Depths for a while just for the interaction with Jace and Hangarback Walker (being able to untap them to use their tap ability twice per turn) but then I realized her -2 isn't good in my deck as I have very few creatures so I would only get one land at most.
He is impressive if he finds the right home, but it's beyond me to find
imo he can see play in all of these decks:
-Any CoCo deck
-Any deck playing Nissa
-Any green deck (sideboard vs tokens)
-Abzan aggro
-Elves
-Allies
-Explosive Vegetation decks (not necessarily Eldrazi Ramp)
-Bant decks with Ojutai's Command
-Bant Awaken
-See the Unwritten+Woodland Bellower
The problem is none of those decks (aside from Abzan) have been proven to be tier one yet. On that I agree. But it's hard to deny the power level of the card or think that it won't see tournament play. If Sylvan Advocate doesn't see tournament play I swear I will quit Magic forever lol. Because clearly that will prove I don't know anything about what makes a card good or bad.
Personally I'm way more interested in a vampire control deck using Elusive Tormentor and Heir of Falkenrath as main win cons and just having a bunch of interaction and madness shenanigans. I just don't like playing with bad creatures.
You know I just realized Olivia, Mobilized for War probably won't even be played in most vampire tribal decks. I read the card again and I just don't see her being that important to the strategy. I think you could probably be fine or even do better without her and have more interaction/removal or disruption instead. Ravenous Bloodseeker is also kind of underwhelming without something like Become Immense. It's basically only a 1/3 blocker or a 3/1 discard outlet but you already have plenty of ways to discard so he is uneeded. Asylum Visitor is definitely a better 2 drop that can turn into much needed card advantage when you're hellbent or when both players are in top deck mode.
4x Falkenrath Gorger
4x Heir of Falkenrath
4x Asylum Visitor
4x Incorrigible Youths
3x Kalitas, traitor of Ghet
4x Fiery Temper
3x Sinister Concoction
2x Lightning Axe
2x To the Slaughter
2x Tormenting Voice
2x Macabre Waltz
1x Ob Nixilis Reignited
1x Chandra, Flamecaller
4x Evolving Wilds
10x Mountain
10x Swamp
Something I just noticed, getting Delirium for To the Slaughter could prove to be tricky since most of the time you're not going to want to discard a land but discard an instant/creature with madness instead. Sinister Concoction allows you to get an enchantment in the graveyard and has the chance of milling a land. So that's cool. I might also consider playing with Evolving Wilds over the battlelands and maybe have more sorceries to enable Delirium because I do feel like it's important to have a clean answer to planeswalkers.
That deck loses Ghostfire Blade which is 75% of the reason why the deck is even winning as an aggro deck. It also loses Stubborn Denial which is the best counterspell because Ghostfire Blade on any 2 power creature enables ferocious. So I don't think this particular deck will still be strong enough after rotation. The best combination is with Jeskai because of Eldrazi Displacer imo but I could also see a Temur CoCo variation.
When I see too many tap lands or pain lands in a list that tries to go 4 color I already question the deck list no matter who designed it. I'll rework on the manabase to make it more consistent or less slow.
Then there's card choices. Some choices may not seem to make much sense because X card just seems better or whatever. However one thing that's harder to understand is that the meta of an SCG open may not be the same as a pro tour or as your local FNM. So if you just copy the 75 chances are you won't do as well as the pros because you have failed to adapt the list to your meta. Maybe Arashin Cleric isn't needed in the sideboard/main if no one plays Atarka in your meta. Maybe Despise/Transgress the Mind is better than Duress if everyone and their mother plays Eldrazi ramp. etc.
Some spikes are natural or make sense like Eye of Ugin for example. Even before the pro tour some people were playtesting BW eldrazi processors online and it looked very strong. So naturally some people speculated on these cards before Oath was even out and those people made a good chunk of change. These are smart specs that happen from time to time when brewers are ahead of everyone else.
But there are also groups of people who have the power to hi-jack the secondary market. A single rich person could not do it as effectively as it's much easier/faster when you are a few hundred buying out the same card at the same time. Some stores panic when they see a huge strange spike and hide their supply which contributes to those cards spiking even more and even faster. Then those people sell/trade back the cards at a profit and start over again with another card. Basically it doesn't really matter what card they choose and for what reason, if everyone buys it out they will control its value for a short period of time. It's a scary trend for the players trying to get into modern but it's not really against the law and WotC doesn't care since they only make money from selling sealed product.
1. March From the Tomb. Sure, it only gets back allies but Kalastria Healer and Zulaport Cutthroat may be the only creatures you truly need to get back. And SOI will have new ways to throw a ton of cards into your graveyard.
2. Vile Redeemer. Aristocrat decks only care about having things to sac and death triggers. Vile Redeemer gives you a bunch of scions to sac for mana or to sac to Nantuko Husk. If you have two Zulaports in play this is GG and Vile Redeemer has the advantage of being a cast trigger so counterspells can't stop it.
There's also no telling what kind of reanimation shenanigans or recurring creatures could be in SOI so I wouldn't count Aristocrats completely out. They will need ways to deal with Kalitas but also no longer need to worry about Anafenza.
But even then it seems there are better ways to make yourself discard: Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, Oona's Prowler, Faithless Looting, Izzet Charm etc. Unless there's some type of combo I'm completely unaware of.
edit: Well, I guess it's one way to enable Sea Gate Wreckage, Ensnaring Bridge and get Delirium.
I personally prefer this removal over Immolating Glare.
So I thought about it a lot and you're half right:
There is never a line (when I'm on the play) where Abzan Aggro can curve out perfectly and also interact sufficiently at the same time to clear my blockers and have 7 power in play. So Narset in most cases is almost guaranteed to survive for a turn of combat damage against a lot of aggro decks (which is why they are better off ignoring her otherwise she gains me a lot time and prevents a lot of damage).
Now if they are on the play of course it's a different story and they clearly have the speed advantage. But I'm not forced to play Narset on t4. I could simply fog on t4, then Planar Outburst on t5 and drop her after I've cleaned up the board. Or chump block for a while and use removal on Siege Rhino. That would be a better gameplan than going t4 Narset on the draw.
So what I take from this is that Narset should probably be a 2 of (but have more in the sideboard vs mid-range and control) and I should have more removal to interact early. But this is assuming the meta is super aggro oriented. If the meta slows down or if tier 1 decks keep aggro decks in check then 3x Narset is fine.
But Sphinx of the Final Word is only a sideboard card for control mirrors. There's literally no way people will choose to play it over Dragonlord Ojutai or any other win condition basically.
She doesn't need to protect herself because she is protected by: 1. Sylvan Advocate, 2. flipped Jace (quick to flip with Oath of Jace and fetchlands), 3. Oath of Gideon (creates two chump blockers + gives her one more loyalty), 4. Fogs and 5. Planar Outburst. And even with none of those things she goes up to 7 loyalty which isn't the same as a 4 loyalty planeswalker (which need more protection). There is no Hero's Downfall in the format and not many decks run more than 1-2 Ruinous Path so the main way to deal with walkers is via direct combat damage and not many decks can do 7+ damage on t4. Only Abzan Aggro and Atarka Red I guess. But aggro decks are often better off ignoring her and trying to go for the kill before I get to Planar Outburst. Attacking her is only buying me more time and essentially preventing damage for 2 turns.
You're also forgetting that Oath of Jace allows me to scry X. Scrying in combination with Narset is pretty powerful. A lot more powerful than you seem to realize. I know because I was already using Narset in conjuction with scry lands, Jace, the Living Guildpact and Courser of Kruphix. Of course the Bant deck was pretty bad back then because mono red burn was too quick and RG devotion was dropping Dragonlord Atarka on t4. But Atarka red doesn't have anywhere near as much reach as mono red did and a single fog or instant speed removal can completely shut the combo down.
And if you've ever played with Topan Freeblade you know how that card absolutely destroys goblin tokens without even trying. Well 2/3 vigilance eats up 2/2 tokens all day and survives Wild Slash, Radiant Flames for 2 or Kozilek's Return. Main difference is that you're happy to draw Sylvan Advocate on t7 unlike Topan Freeblade.
I think the main reason why so many people are under evaluating him is because they only think about tribal Elves or Abzan Aggro strategies and those decks don't want to stick around until turn 6 or turn 7. But Sylvan Advocate won't be great in those decks because it's a worse clock than Warden of the First Tree or any 3/1 for 2 mana early game. Playing Sylvan Advocate in aggro only is like playing Ulamog in a deck that has 0 ramp imo.
4 Sylvan Advocate
3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
Planeswalkers (7)
4 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3 Narset Transcendent
Spells (20)
2 Reality Shift
3 Oath of Gideon
3 Oath of Jace
3 Ojutai's Command
3 Encircling Fissure
3 Planar Outburst
1 Secure the Wastes
2 Dig Through Time
4 Flooded Strand
4 Windswept Heath
1 Evolving Wilds
3 Canopy Vista
3 Prairie Stream
2 Lumbering Falls
3 Island
3 Forest
2 Plains
4 Reflector Mage
3 Disdainful Stroke
3 Negate
2 Dispel
2 Stasis Snare
1 Lumbering Falls
Tech time: I can use Jace and Oath of Jace to pitch any extra Sylvan Advocate to the graveyard. This way if they Ugin -4, I can end step Ojutai's Command to get back Sylvan Advocate. Then kill Ugin with 4/5 Advocate and attack them with 5/5 Lumbering Falls. Or maybe even ignore Ugin and kill them if I have 1-2 emblems out.
Blue allows for Jace, Oath of Jace and Dig which I find more powerful and interesting than Oath of Nissa overall (what if one of the top 3 cards is a Planar Outburst you need?). Oath of Jace draws 3. You keep those 3 amazing cards and throw away cards you don't need. That is very good card selection + obviously fuels delve to Dig. Not to mention blue also gives me access to counterspells post-board which is relevant vs Eldrazi Ramp.
Not a lot of interesting spells to rebound with Narset unfortunately. But I'm thinking about mostly using her +1. With only 8 creatures she will draw me a lot of cards. And she can always rebound Ojutai's Command, Planar Outburst and Dig Trhough Time which is great. Also with Oath of Gideon she is just 2 activations away from ultimate range which destroys a lot of strategies.
I considered Kiora, Master of the Depths for a while just for the interaction with Jace and Hangarback Walker (being able to untap them to use their tap ability twice per turn) but then I realized her -2 isn't good in my deck as I have very few creatures so I would only get one land at most.
I didn't think it was possible but I forgot some points:
11. 2/3 vigilance alone on t2 is huge and it's going to give token strategies nightmares. He can take care of an army of tokens by himself.
12. On curve he protects Nissa, Voice of Zendikar really well. Which in turn can turn him into a 3/4 vigilance on t3.
imo he can see play in all of these decks:
-Any CoCo deck
-Any deck playing Nissa
-Any green deck (sideboard vs tokens)
-Abzan aggro
-Elves
-Allies
-Explosive Vegetation decks (not necessarily Eldrazi Ramp)
-Bant decks with Ojutai's Command
-Bant Awaken
-See the Unwritten+Woodland Bellower
The problem is none of those decks (aside from Abzan) have been proven to be tier one yet. On that I agree. But it's hard to deny the power level of the card or think that it won't see tournament play. If Sylvan Advocate doesn't see tournament play I swear I will quit Magic forever lol. Because clearly that will prove I don't know anything about what makes a card good or bad.