I have posted this several times on reddit but this is my first time here. Also, I am very much self-promoting my website.
I created a website (mtgMullAgain.com) that has many tools to estimate mulligan rates for specific decks. The first method estimates user's mulligan rate by simply simulating the mulligan process and keeping track of your decisions. I used it in this video to estimate the mulligan rate for modern humans using common Heuristics to be 42% +/- 7%. The Heuristics I used are discussed in the video, many of the guidelines are from Dylan Hands Humans guide. Basically mulliganing hands without a 1-drop or wrong mix of land/spells. To reiterate, I believe good players are mulliganing around 42% of opening 7-card hands. If you are not doing this I believe you are hurting your win percentage!
The second tool is more advanced; you create a sorted (worst->best) list of opening hands and the website does some math to estimate the optimal mulligan rate. The math starts by assuming a win percentage for every hand then solves each decision based on maximizing the win rate. It is explained in detail in the video below:
I did a large sort (130 hands) for Modern Humans and came up with the three hands below as the "worst hands to keep" for hand sizes 5,6, and 7. Next to each is the mulligan rate using this method:
5-Card (Mulligan 16%) - {Meddling Mage, General Kudro of Drannith, Horizon Canopy, Unclaimed Territory, Unclaimed Territory }
7-Card (Mulligan 55%) - {Noble Hierarch, General Kudro of Drannith, Thalia's Lieutenant, Thalia's Lieutenant, Horizon Canopy, Horizon Canopy, Plains }
To the competitive Humans players out there: How does mulliganing 55% sound for 7-card hands?
My guess is that it is higher than most competitive players are mulliganing but believe it could be correct. There is definitely some error from not having a large enough sort but I expect the Optimal mulligan rate really is >50%.
If you want to see the details, check out the website, this information is displayed in graphically, I just couldn't put it here. This sort is the default that loads with the page.
You can also see how I ordered the hands, I am an avid modern player but not really a Humans specialist.
Let me know if you think this accurate / if I made any big mistakes.
Also, check out the site, do your own estimate and post the results here!
I created a website (mtgMullAgain.com) that has many tools to estimate mulligan rates for specific decks. The first method estimates user's mulligan rate by simply simulating the mulligan process and keeping track of your decisions. I used it in this video to estimate the mulligan rate for modern humans using common Heuristics to be 42% +/- 7%. The Heuristics I used are discussed in the video, many of the guidelines are from Dylan Hands Humans guide. Basically mulliganing hands without a 1-drop or wrong mix of land/spells. To reiterate, I believe good players are mulliganing around 42% of opening 7-card hands. If you are not doing this I believe you are hurting your win percentage!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEoOhAp0v20
The second tool is more advanced; you create a sorted (worst->best) list of opening hands and the website does some math to estimate the optimal mulligan rate. The math starts by assuming a win percentage for every hand then solves each decision based on maximizing the win rate. It is explained in detail in the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6gRy5q-I98&t=1s
I did a large sort (130 hands) for Modern Humans and came up with the three hands below as the "worst hands to keep" for hand sizes 5,6, and 7. Next to each is the mulligan rate using this method:
5-Card (Mulligan 16%) - {Meddling Mage, General Kudro of Drannith, Horizon Canopy, Unclaimed Territory, Unclaimed Territory }
6-Card (Mulligan 22%) - {Noble Hierarch, Meddling Mage, Kitesail Freebooter, Thalia's Lieutenant, Thalia's Lieutenant, Horizon Canopy}
7-Card (Mulligan 55%) - {Noble Hierarch, General Kudro of Drannith, Thalia's Lieutenant, Thalia's Lieutenant, Horizon Canopy, Horizon Canopy, Plains }
To the competitive Humans players out there: How does mulliganing 55% sound for 7-card hands?
My guess is that it is higher than most competitive players are mulliganing but believe it could be correct. There is definitely some error from not having a large enough sort but I expect the Optimal mulligan rate really is >50%.
If you want to see the details, check out the website, this information is displayed in graphically, I just couldn't put it here. This sort is the default that loads with the page.
You can also see how I ordered the hands, I am an avid modern player but not really a Humans specialist.
Let me know if you think this accurate / if I made any big mistakes.
Also, check out the site, do your own estimate and post the results here!