It does add credible to the thoughts we won't have any planeswalkers in the set and why they might be why we got a "4th" planeswalker in Kaldheim and Strixhaven.
I highly doubt that to be the case, planeswalker are the face of magic now expect them in each and every set. Even Maro stated so in Blogatog a while ago. I also think the 4th planeswalker was a side effect of MDFC adding an additionnal sheet to printing.
Well it really depends what your ranking is, when i reached diamond status i've noticed that i was playing against busted decks like you've described in oppening post way more often than before. That can be explained by the fact that people grinding to the mythic status won't even bother to play an average draft, will resign and draft another deck. The fact that bot drafting dramatically changes how you should consider your picks and pass that off color bomb from pack 3 because you will never play against, play MD cards that you won't play in BO3 like Sprouting Renewal.
The current ravnica format shows it well : avoid golgari at all costs, boros gives free wins as long as you win the toss, always have a gameplan against all-in boros, don't try izzet control too much because you will be hard cut by the 4 boros bots that will first pick direct current over boros legionnaire, recognize that disinformation campaign and though erasure beeing on the same uncommon sheet is a trap which is why the format has become a 2 decks format boros vs dimir.
But i agree that bot drafting and playing against random opponent is nowhere near close to tabletop draft and if their goal is to emulate real life magic then bot drafting is not the way to go
Get good really mono red is nowhere close to last year power level (remember hazoret, chandra and that silly 4/4 flying haste flametongue kavru ?). Weenie white crushes RDW so hard so does esper control and mono blue aggro. I can agree on the brainless part but not one of your other points are valid i'm sorry, even the burn part is so wrong : chain lightning, lightning bolt, flameblast are cards that will never see the light of standard again. While i can agree that a standard without a valid burn strategy would be a refreshing move because mono red has been tier 1 for far too long, some players refuses to play anything else so wizards needs to delivers to them as well.
Your views are match-up oriented, yes grixis dragons is one of Izzet worst match up because of vraska's contempt+yawgmoth vile offering, facing a turn 3 sharkan into a turn 4 Niv-Mizzet is almost unbeatable for the deck, yes electromancer isn't that good in that match up because of ritual of soot or golden demise (i cut one of them after sideboard against this deck). Electromancer is what allows this deck to exist but you have to be smart on how you play them, against removals heavy decks you want to be able to chain at least one discounted spell right of the bat when you play it, this means don't play it on turn 2 unless you have another one in hand.
Niv-Mizzet is an absolute beast in this match-up but you can't play it MD in a world of chupacabra and vivien, heck i even avoid to side him in if my opponent can discard it and get it back via elder reborn.
I think if you want to play MD niv-mizzet you have to play sharkan and then you can't really play phoenix anymore because you'll be playing too many non instant and sorcery cards and you'll end up in a very different deck maybe way more control burn oriented.
Then again this deck is not easy to play, a lot of choises are counter intuitive (why should i not attack with my haste creature or my 8/4 flying ?) but it is by far the most busted thing you can do in standard since Aetherworks Marvel into Ulamog.
Actually GB is the reason why i first tried playing withtout enigma drake and velocity, this game plan is very soft to GB deck, if you plan on landing a drake on turn 3 then a drake on turn 4 you play their game, they can go llanowar into explore creature into chupacabra into vivien which is a regular curve for them and they will beat you because you will be too far behind on board. Playing less drakes improves your GB match-up by a lot because you need less protection and you will play more instants and sorcery so you will see your phoenixes faster and more often.
Speaking about the giant hexproof monster, there's many many way to beat it, first and obvious one is be faster than carnage tyrant and you definitevely can, second one is trade for it this game plan is soft to finality and you have to take that into consideration, third one is play river rebuke, fourth one is play bad cards (detection tower).
Yes people are starting to adjust to the Izzet menace, the deck was the 2nd most popular deck on last GPs and had the best day2 conversion rate despite playing bad lists (enigma/velocity, most lists without discovery/dispersal, playing tormenting voices...) but to do that they need to weaken their game plan against something else, if GB wants to improve its match-up against phoenix it has to play a bunch of crap cards for aggro match-up (MD carnage tyrant+mana elves as seen in Javier Dominguez deck from GP Lille and get away from the explore package MD). Let's see how the meta evolves after the Pro-Tour but i predict there won't be many teferi played at this pro-tour and that Izzet Phoenix will be the most played deck or a close second to GB and that the most succesful version will not play enigma drake at all.
Against what decks are people actually bringing in Ral, Izzet Viceroy? It only really feels decent against Jeskai Control, and only then if they are siding out most of their counterspells.
I play one Ral as my 4th beacon bolt so i bring him in when i bring the removal package (i don't play MD lava coil), i also bring him in if my opponent is playing niv-mizzet or unmoored ego. So i side him in quite a lot, he's not game breaking in itself but fits well in your sideboard gameplan. I don't want to play 2 of them because 80% of the time you have better things to do than playing Ral so i never want to have 2 of them in my hand.
Also you should play 4 Discovery/dispersal, it is by far the best cantrip you can play in this deck.
I don't think it is, it is definitvely not a MD card because it is not an instant or sorcery and this deck uses all its mana every turn until very late in the game so i find it way too much mana intensive, vulnerable to too many things and an awful top deck even when you could fuel it fast.
The control match-up is already heavily in your favor if you're not playing an enigma drake/maximize velocity version and mostly resolves around hitting your land drop until you can play niv-mizzet+protection as they waste their counters/removals on your cantrips and hardcast phoenixes.
Fight with Fire is in the side for the matchups where you are stone cold certain you will be facing 5 toughness creatures that need to die, especially Niv-Mizzet. This deck will usually get up to five in the yard for beacon bolt, but usually isn't always. Staring at a Niv-Mizzet on the board and your Beacon Bolt in hand with only three or four instants in the yard feels pretty bad. In a longer game this deck can also kick it more often than you'd think.
Maybe it is because i play more cheap cantrips but by turn 6 i'll have way more than 5 spells in the bin for a niv-mizzet, but let's just look at some common situation you can face in standard : opponent at 20 drops a doom whisperer, do you want beacon bolt or fight with fire ? Opponent has a shalai and a lyra on the board, do you want fight with fire or beacon bolt ? you're low life facing a next turn lethal history of benala, do you want beacon bolt or fight with fire ? Opponent duresses you before playing its huge creature, do you want fight with fire or beacon bolt ? opponent plays a ghalta or a ferox, do you want a beacon bolt or a fight with fire ? You need to cast 3 spells ? Becon bolt is 2 spells, you need to discard a card ? Becon bolt is good to go from your graveyard. To be honest, if i have access to 9 mana i will draw my entire deck, kill your 2 best creatures with beacon bolt and kill you with phoenixes and negates, the kicker part is irrelevant.
For Niv-Mizzet he is great as long as your opponent can't discard it to get it back with elder reborn. If my opponent can't have this line of play in his control deck, i'll bring him in. Jeskai in particular can't do anything against a niv mizzet.
If you've looked at GP games, you'll notice that golgari's response to Izzet Drake is to go carnage tyrant ASAP and backing it with duress, if game stalls their only wincon is Finality on Tyrant. This game plan can be responded by either adding black to the mana base in order to play the second part of Discovery/Dispersal or by playing River's Rebuke as well as some mission briefing in order to have a huge reset button. Silent gravestone responds Deathgorge Scavenger if you're concerned about that card.
About shock vs lightning strike, i'm ok in having a more vulnerable main deck to wildgrowth walker or early aggro because i am confident i will win against all midrange and control decks in a best of 3 match but i can't count how many times i have shocked my own phoenixes to save them from exile so i want shock anytime in my main over lightning strike or lava coil. I like having a more all in G1 pack but very flexible sideboard options to be able to go either the control way with more burn or stay focus on the main game plan but adding powerful silver bullets (Niv-Mizzet and River's Rebuke) to turn games around. But i can't see a world where i don't play 3 negates in my sideboard it is the best sideboard card in the format by far.
Still not a fan of Ral is this deck to play more than one. I never want to have 2 of them stuck in my hand
I'd like to ask people that plays firemind's research what this card is here for ? I have tried it and found it pretty bad. If it is for teferi match-up why the hell are you not playing Niv-Mizzet instead ? Only match-up where the card is better than niv-mizzet is against UBx surveil/discard with elder reborn which is already a good match-up. Same goes for some lists with fight with fire over beacon bolt, i can't imagine a world where i would want to do that, beacon bolt is bonkers in this pack. Interested in seeing more mission brefing but it will need to bend the mana base to play more blue. If only there was a second one mana blue cantrip legal^^
Not surprised to see the deck showing good results the deck is really strong even if the versions that showed at the GPs are the bad ones (enigma drake+velocity is cute but it makes your whole deck weaker, playing more cheap cantrips and less lands is better).
This is my current decklist, might try murmuring mystic for the mirror as long as people can't give trample+first strike to their drakes. And about the lands debate, i sometimes cut a land after sideboard when i cut the drakes but the deck can and will usually use any mana avaible at every turn of the game so hitting land drop every turn is good. Sure you will sometimes draw too many lands but beeing stuck on 3 lands on turn 3 and 4 is not what you wanna do, you'll need 6 mana on turn 6 if you have no electromancer to play radical idea and chart a course, for 5 mana you can go electromancer and 3 two mana spells so you want lands the whole game.
Arclight Phoenix is very safe for Standard. Every deck can sideboard Sentinel Totem, and Spyglass to preempt Firemind's Research. Also every color besides blue has a legit maindeck answer to Phoenix.
Give a try to River's Rebuke instead of Fiery Cannonade and stop cutting electromancers they're core to the deck, the Drakes are not and that is probably the card i side out the most and this goes to the point where i will probably cut the drakes from the main deck and go with just 4 electromancer and 4 Phoenix MD 20 lands 3 shock 2 beacon bolt and all cantrip and maybe a MD niv-Mizzet or Ral just to have another kill.
Why do i think Arclight Phoenix is too strong for standard ? Because it will promote a very poor player experience, repetitve play pattern as well as a recurring obnoxious threat. Players at my LGS are already refusing to play against the deck, whenever i face a jeskai or grixis opponent online they usually concede pretty fast as counters+removal+pw is the worst thing you can do against this deck. I used to struggle against RDW but now i consider it as one of the easiest match-up and same can be said about Golgari or Stompy once you've understood those matches are not about racing but about delaying the game long enough because they can't beat your late game. The deck is fast, resilient in what it is doing, has always acces to its sideboard cards thanks to the insane number of cantrips and has what is the sickest draw in standard (You can have 4 phoenixes in play on turn 3 with electromancer, discovery, chart a course and luck).
Also keep in mind this is the shortest card pool avaible in standard in a long time, this deck will gain new card and any blue cheap cantrip (thought scour) will be nuts for this deck.
About the counters suite, here are my thoughts : Negate is the best one because it will counter almost everything you worry about (Exile removals, Planeswalkers, counterspell war) but it will miss on those cards : Lyra Dawnbringer, Doom Whisperer, Nicol Bolas which can be answered by Disdainful Stroke. Ionize will counter anything but is more expensive and the 2 damages are mostly irrelevant for your deck but Surveil 1 is not so if i would be playing a 3 mana counterspell i would probably go the Sinister Sabotage way.
That's funny because i don't like him that much, he's my fourth beacon bolt as well as a way to answer opposing niv mizzet without giving cards to opponent. I bring him when i bring the removal suite on as he compleats it well but that's it. For me the strenght of this deck is its ability to play cheap spells to get to your phoenixes and bring them back over and over and a 5 mana spell isn't the way to go to achieve that. I used to play a niv mizzet MD for the teferi MU but the meta is quite hostile to teferi right now so no need for niv anymore.
That is what i'm currently playing, the deck is fun. For your white/selesnya MU, my game plan is to chump block with phoenix as much as possible in order to exhaust them, you win the long game with your card advantage and one strike with a drake+some phoenixes should do it even if they are at 30+ life, i usually side this way against them : -6 red cantrip -1 drake -2 chemister insight -1 electromancer +3 negate +3 lava coil+ 1 river rebuke +2 beacon bolt +1 ral
I highly doubt that to be the case, planeswalker are the face of magic now expect them in each and every set. Even Maro stated so in Blogatog a while ago. I also think the 4th planeswalker was a side effect of MDFC adding an additionnal sheet to printing.
The current ravnica format shows it well : avoid golgari at all costs, boros gives free wins as long as you win the toss, always have a gameplan against all-in boros, don't try izzet control too much because you will be hard cut by the 4 boros bots that will first pick direct current over boros legionnaire, recognize that disinformation campaign and though erasure beeing on the same uncommon sheet is a trap which is why the format has become a 2 decks format boros vs dimir.
But i agree that bot drafting and playing against random opponent is nowhere near close to tabletop draft and if their goal is to emulate real life magic then bot drafting is not the way to go
Niv-Mizzet is an absolute beast in this match-up but you can't play it MD in a world of chupacabra and vivien, heck i even avoid to side him in if my opponent can discard it and get it back via elder reborn.
I think if you want to play MD niv-mizzet you have to play sharkan and then you can't really play phoenix anymore because you'll be playing too many non instant and sorcery cards and you'll end up in a very different deck maybe way more control burn oriented.
Then again this deck is not easy to play, a lot of choises are counter intuitive (why should i not attack with my haste creature or my 8/4 flying ?) but it is by far the most busted thing you can do in standard since Aetherworks Marvel into Ulamog.
Speaking about the giant hexproof monster, there's many many way to beat it, first and obvious one is be faster than carnage tyrant and you definitevely can, second one is trade for it this game plan is soft to finality and you have to take that into consideration, third one is play river rebuke, fourth one is play bad cards (detection tower).
Yes people are starting to adjust to the Izzet menace, the deck was the 2nd most popular deck on last GPs and had the best day2 conversion rate despite playing bad lists (enigma/velocity, most lists without discovery/dispersal, playing tormenting voices...) but to do that they need to weaken their game plan against something else, if GB wants to improve its match-up against phoenix it has to play a bunch of crap cards for aggro match-up (MD carnage tyrant+mana elves as seen in Javier Dominguez deck from GP Lille and get away from the explore package MD). Let's see how the meta evolves after the Pro-Tour but i predict there won't be many teferi played at this pro-tour and that Izzet Phoenix will be the most played deck or a close second to GB and that the most succesful version will not play enigma drake at all.
I play one Ral as my 4th beacon bolt so i bring him in when i bring the removal package (i don't play MD lava coil), i also bring him in if my opponent is playing niv-mizzet or unmoored ego. So i side him in quite a lot, he's not game breaking in itself but fits well in your sideboard gameplan. I don't want to play 2 of them because 80% of the time you have better things to do than playing Ral so i never want to have 2 of them in my hand.
Also you should play 4 Discovery/dispersal, it is by far the best cantrip you can play in this deck.
I don't think it is, it is definitvely not a MD card because it is not an instant or sorcery and this deck uses all its mana every turn until very late in the game so i find it way too much mana intensive, vulnerable to too many things and an awful top deck even when you could fuel it fast.
The control match-up is already heavily in your favor if you're not playing an enigma drake/maximize velocity version and mostly resolves around hitting your land drop until you can play niv-mizzet+protection as they waste their counters/removals on your cantrips and hardcast phoenixes.
Maybe it is because i play more cheap cantrips but by turn 6 i'll have way more than 5 spells in the bin for a niv-mizzet, but let's just look at some common situation you can face in standard : opponent at 20 drops a doom whisperer, do you want beacon bolt or fight with fire ? Opponent has a shalai and a lyra on the board, do you want fight with fire or beacon bolt ? you're low life facing a next turn lethal history of benala, do you want beacon bolt or fight with fire ? Opponent duresses you before playing its huge creature, do you want fight with fire or beacon bolt ? opponent plays a ghalta or a ferox, do you want a beacon bolt or a fight with fire ? You need to cast 3 spells ? Becon bolt is 2 spells, you need to discard a card ? Becon bolt is good to go from your graveyard. To be honest, if i have access to 9 mana i will draw my entire deck, kill your 2 best creatures with beacon bolt and kill you with phoenixes and negates, the kicker part is irrelevant.
For Niv-Mizzet he is great as long as your opponent can't discard it to get it back with elder reborn. If my opponent can't have this line of play in his control deck, i'll bring him in. Jeskai in particular can't do anything against a niv mizzet.
If you've looked at GP games, you'll notice that golgari's response to Izzet Drake is to go carnage tyrant ASAP and backing it with duress, if game stalls their only wincon is Finality on Tyrant. This game plan can be responded by either adding black to the mana base in order to play the second part of Discovery/Dispersal or by playing River's Rebuke as well as some mission briefing in order to have a huge reset button. Silent gravestone responds Deathgorge Scavenger if you're concerned about that card.
About shock vs lightning strike, i'm ok in having a more vulnerable main deck to wildgrowth walker or early aggro because i am confident i will win against all midrange and control decks in a best of 3 match but i can't count how many times i have shocked my own phoenixes to save them from exile so i want shock anytime in my main over lightning strike or lava coil. I like having a more all in G1 pack but very flexible sideboard options to be able to go either the control way with more burn or stay focus on the main game plan but adding powerful silver bullets (Niv-Mizzet and River's Rebuke) to turn games around. But i can't see a world where i don't play 3 negates in my sideboard it is the best sideboard card in the format by far.
Still not a fan of Ral is this deck to play more than one. I never want to have 2 of them stuck in my hand
Not surprised to see the deck showing good results the deck is really strong even if the versions that showed at the GPs are the bad ones (enigma drake+velocity is cute but it makes your whole deck weaker, playing more cheap cantrips and less lands is better).
This is my current decklist, might try murmuring mystic for the mirror as long as people can't give trample+first strike to their drakes. And about the lands debate, i sometimes cut a land after sideboard when i cut the drakes but the deck can and will usually use any mana avaible at every turn of the game so hitting land drop every turn is good. Sure you will sometimes draw too many lands but beeing stuck on 3 lands on turn 3 and 4 is not what you wanna do, you'll need 6 mana on turn 6 if you have no electromancer to play radical idea and chart a course, for 5 mana you can go electromancer and 3 two mana spells so you want lands the whole game.
3 Crackling Drake
4 Goblin Electromancer
3 Warlord's Fury
3 Crash Through
3 Shock
4 Opt
4 Radical Idea
4 Chart a Course
4 Discovery // Dispersal
2 Beacon Bolt
2 Chemister's Insight
6 Mountain
4 Sulfur Falls
4 Steam Vents
3 Negate
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Beacon Bolt
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
3 Lava Coil
2 River's Rebuke
1 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
1 Crackling Drake
Sentinel Totem has never ever been a problem when brought after sideboard by opponents and same is true for any targeted exile a card from graveyard (deathgorge scavenger) and can be responded by Silent Gravestone if it becomes a common sideboard card, Firemind's research is slow and clunky and unplayable in this deck (awful top deck, useless if not in opening hand, not an instant or sorcery, too much mana required). Speaking of answers to Phoenix, white has seal away/ixalan's binding/conclave tribunal, settle the wreackage which can be answered by negate, disdainful stroke or river's rebuke quite effectively, blue has nothing to answer phoenix, red has lava coil, black has necrotic wound and vraska's contempt and green has nothing. True side hate for this deck is few cards : Ashes of the abhorrent, mistcaller Raiders' Wake and Unmoored Ego none seems like a potent standard playable card except for the cranial variant.
Give a try to River's Rebuke instead of Fiery Cannonade and stop cutting electromancers they're core to the deck, the Drakes are not and that is probably the card i side out the most and this goes to the point where i will probably cut the drakes from the main deck and go with just 4 electromancer and 4 Phoenix MD 20 lands 3 shock 2 beacon bolt and all cantrip and maybe a MD niv-Mizzet or Ral just to have another kill.
Why do i think Arclight Phoenix is too strong for standard ? Because it will promote a very poor player experience, repetitve play pattern as well as a recurring obnoxious threat. Players at my LGS are already refusing to play against the deck, whenever i face a jeskai or grixis opponent online they usually concede pretty fast as counters+removal+pw is the worst thing you can do against this deck. I used to struggle against RDW but now i consider it as one of the easiest match-up and same can be said about Golgari or Stompy once you've understood those matches are not about racing but about delaying the game long enough because they can't beat your late game. The deck is fast, resilient in what it is doing, has always acces to its sideboard cards thanks to the insane number of cantrips and has what is the sickest draw in standard (You can have 4 phoenixes in play on turn 3 with electromancer, discovery, chart a course and luck).
Also keep in mind this is the shortest card pool avaible in standard in a long time, this deck will gain new card and any blue cheap cantrip (thought scour) will be nuts for this deck.
About the counters suite, here are my thoughts : Negate is the best one because it will counter almost everything you worry about (Exile removals, Planeswalkers, counterspell war) but it will miss on those cards : Lyra Dawnbringer, Doom Whisperer, Nicol Bolas which can be answered by Disdainful Stroke. Ionize will counter anything but is more expensive and the 2 damages are mostly irrelevant for your deck but Surveil 1 is not so if i would be playing a 3 mana counterspell i would probably go the Sinister Sabotage way.
6 Island (M19) 265
4 Goblin Electromancer (GRN) 174
4 Steam Vents (GRN) 257
4 Crackling Drake (GRN) 163
4 Arclight Phoenix (GRN) 91
4 Chart a Course (XLN) 48
3 Crash Through (M19) 133
3 Warlord's Fury (DAR) 151
4 Radical Idea (GRN) 52
4 Opt (XLN) 65
3 Shock (M19) 156
1 Beacon Bolt (GRN) 154
6 Mountain (RIX) 195
4 Discovery // Dispersal (GRN) 223
2 Chemister's Insight (GRN) 32
2 Disdainful Stroke (GRN) 37
3 Negate (RIX) 44
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun (GRN) 192
1 Ral, Izzet Viceroy (GRN) GR5
3 Lava Coil (GRN) 108
2 River's Rebuke (XLN) 71
That is what i'm currently playing, the deck is fun. For your white/selesnya MU, my game plan is to chump block with phoenix as much as possible in order to exhaust them, you win the long game with your card advantage and one strike with a drake+some phoenixes should do it even if they are at 30+ life, i usually side this way against them : -6 red cantrip -1 drake -2 chemister insight -1 electromancer +3 negate +3 lava coil+ 1 river rebuke +2 beacon bolt +1 ral