MTG Salvation

We at least can assume Proph and Generic aren't both scum together, because that would mean the mod added a Mafia Rolecop into a game just to find 2 Masons.

@Seppel: What kind of response do you expect for your Karn PBPA? All you basically did was call his posts "goodposting" and then magically conclude that he is "beyond town" based on behavior. Besides the Cantrip wagon, what has he done that makes him townie?

Quote from Prophylaxis

LYNCH - fadeblue/Nny
SHOOT - fadeblue/Nny

Note: If Proph is scum, his teammate is almost certainly in Seppel/Karn/Shock. His proposal here would be instant suicide for the scum team if we lynched his teammate and then he failed to produce a vig shot. Also note that these three are the ones voting him, and he expresses no suspicion of any of them (despite the fact that they are pushing for his lynch after he has claimed vig, whose shot would be highly useful for the town right now)

My feeling is that Shock is not the bussing type as scum, so that would only leave Seppel/Proph and Karn/Proph, with the former being more likely.

If Proph is somehow town despite his lame play as vig, Seppel/Karn looks like the most likely team based on this Proph push and the D1 Cantrip wagon (plus Karn's backpedaling away from Seppel)

Either way, Seppel is the better lynch today.

@Karn: So do you think Nny is more likely than Seppel to be Proph's scum buddy?

@Proph: So you feel that all of the people pushing for your lynch right now are town?

Too many people are parked on a wagon and just waiting for one of the lynches to happen. Let's just get on with this. I'm fine with either me or Seppel.

Vote Seppel

Quote from Seppel

Quote from fadeblue

@Seppel, Karn: And what is your plan if Proph flips town?

He won't; no plan necessary.

But seriously, in the off-chance he is town, I'd still have to wait to see who was killed, and even then, the plan would just be to re-read.

What would the NK tell you? You think there's a good chance of the scum not killing one of the "cleared" town PRs?

Quote from Seppel »

Quote from fadeblue

I really don't like this push for a Proph lynch today when he can be tested at night. If Proph is town, this play makes it very likely that we lose in lots of cases that would be covered by the vig plan.

Why are you talking only about plans?

Plans are what mafia do.

Here in the TOWN, we scumhunt.

So town shouldn't plan for endgame scenarios?

Maybe you're just continuing to insinuate I'm scum until there's a consensus so you can flip-flop again? Or just setting up to attack me again tomorrow?

Quote from Seppel »

You didn't even reply to my case on Proph & Karn. What do you think of them now?

There was a need to? I've already stated that Proph is likely scum based on behavior but we have a better way to test him tonight instead of lynching.

Let's suppose Proph is town. If we lynch him, it's then MyLo tomorrow and we have to NoLynch, giving the scum another kill. If he gets to shoot tonight, then we get control of that kill instead of the scum.

---------------

If we're not lynching me today, then I would agree with Generic's plan of lynching Seppel, with the change that Proph only shoots Karn if Seppel flips scum. If Seppel flips town, Proph should be shooting Nny or me.

@Seppel, Karn: And what is your plan if Proph flips town?

I really don't like this push for a Proph lynch today when he can be tested at night. If Proph is town, this play makes it very likely that we lose in lots of cases that would be covered by the vig plan.

The one thing I forgot in my notes about Karn is that I don't like that he was actually advocating lynching Proph today, which looks to me like the worst option available.

@Seppel:
That's how I've been posting all game. Is it just the frequency you have a problem with? Because I even stated in the signup thread that I can't be as active as usual this game.

At this point it feels like you're just voting me whenever I'm not posting.

This is a question of whether you are hard-cleared or not. You should at least be able to recognize that a doctor claim != town.

I already stated that there is no plan I can see that accounts for the possibility of you being scum without sacrificing more likely possibilities, which is why I'm just going to accept that risk and assume you're town.

Quote from Generic

Being the doctor kind of cleared me fade, but thanks for playing.

You act as if a doctor claim clears someone.

4 confirmable townies in a 12-player game makes zero sense, so why are you not convinced that Proph is scum?

I'd rather be lynched today than be a game-ending mislynch tomorrow, so let's just get on with this.

I feel like the two most likely possibilities for scum teams are Seppel/Proph and Nny/Karn, though Shock could be an outside possibility with any of those four. This will be clear once I flip, so the best course of action will be to have Proph shoot Nny. This should give the highest probability of winning the game. Proph shooting Seppel is also a possibility but I prefer the Nny shot because it should perform better in cases where Shock is scum.

Notes:
-Proph has a poor voting record, lack of scumhunting, and a questionable vig claim. If he were really vig, one would have expected him to shoot me last night after LnG flipped town, given the way he had been questioning me and the fact that he is pushing for my lynch today.
-Seppel is pushing my lynch with some pretty awful arguments - e.g. Cantrip "buddying" me (even though he wouldn't be buddying me if we were scum together), me "doing nothing" (he is basically advocating a policy lurker lynch), my presumed partnership with Nny, etc. without putting forth any actual reasons for why my posts make me scum. Points in his favor are that he appears to be the one putting in the most effort, and his reads appear almost too clueless for scum.
-Besides LnG and Raptor (both town), Seppel and Proph were the ones most interested in my wagon on D1 when Cantrip was the alternative. Both also were on the LnG counterwagon. Seppel was also briefly on the Raptor counterwagon.

-Nny is sXe's successor, whose first post was bad but could potentially be explained by Nny's claim. His decision to jump off my wagon to pursue Seppel/Proph makes me feel better about him, but also paranoid about an attempt to get someone else mislynched today and leave me for an easy lynch tomorrow.
-I don't see enough transparency in Karn's reads and logic. I'm also paranoid about him given the unwavering push on Cantrip on D1 and the apparent lack of interest in me the entire game.
-Karn and Nny look very much like a bloc today, to the point that I am second-guessing that the remaining scum would not tie to each other so obviously. Behaviorally, they have been better than Seppel and Proph.

-Generic is not confirmed town even though we are currently treating him as such.

I personally think the Seppel/Proph theory is stronger, and we should be able to test this tonight. (Under this theory, Seppel's recent response to Generic's question looks very much like he is trying to leave wiggle room for when Proph can't produce an extra kill, especially given that Seppel so matter-of-factly declared earlier that we could deduce from the setup that the Mafia don't have a roleblocker.)

In any case, lynching me today will remove me from the equation to help narrow down the possibilities (despite the apparent consensus being that the only possibility of me being scum is with Nny). I would fight it if it seemed likely that people would come to their senses tomorrow, but that doesn't seem to be the case so I'll accept it. We still have a good chance of winning the game unless Generic is scum, in which case I'm pretty sure no plan can cover that possibility adequately without sacrificing more likely possibilities, so I'm not going to worry about it.

Sorry, was V/LA over the weekend - took a trip to Osaka for some concerts. Will catch up today.

For those in favor of my lynch: I would like you to please state who you think is most likely to be my scum partner, and why.

@Generic: The point was that a doc claim doesn't instantly clear you as town. Doctor isn't a verifiable role unless it stops a kill with no other explanations. If you did have an actual verifiable role, then that+Vig+2 Masons would be impossible in a 12-man game.

Just to note:

If we don't lynch/vig scum today/tonight, tomorrow will be LyLo. That means I should definitely be either the lynch or the vig target, because otherwise I am going to be an easy endgame mislynch.

The other target needs to be someone with a high likelihood of being scum, or whose flip will narrow down the possibilities enough that we can lynch two in a row after that. I think the player who best fits that criteria is Proph, but his vig claim basically saves him from being dealt with today.

Other things:

- Generic claims he can instantly clear himself, which I don't think is possible. (If he really does have an auto-clearing role, then Proph is guaranteed scum or the Basic review process is flawed.)
- Nny had a good D2 but with LnG flipping town, he's back on the table. However, he did leave my wagon today when it would have been straightforward to continue with it.
- Shock is still a toss-up, with lots of newb/town tells but almost zero substance in his play.
- From an objective standpoint, if there are no scum among me/Shock/Nny/Proph, I think we've already lost, since I don't see two viable lynches outside that pool (the closest ones would be Karn and Seppel), nor do I see a likely 2-man team out of Karn/Seppel/Generic/Raptor.

Also,
@Nny and Karn: Both of you are proposing a Seppel/Proph team. Do you guys have a case for that pairing?