MTG Salvation

Shock is playing so poorly that I'm starting to wonder if he's intentionally playing up the newb angle because he thinks it will get him a pass.

@Cantrip: You say that this wagon is bad, yet you don't actually seem to think that there are scum pushing the wagon? Not Karn, who you previously thought was scum? Not Seppel, even though you've been questioning him a lot and in #256 you stated "Seppelstock has dropped a bit"?

Instead, you vote FIGHTING, even though you qualify that with the statement "This is so much better than Rodemy, but still so full of conflict."

Quote from Cantripmancer

Oh, look, I'm at claim range. Yeah, let's break down this wagon:

Seppel: You're attacking my attackers (fadeblue); is your vote serious?
Sir Karn: OMGUS
Prophylaxis: Sounds sincere, is the only one whose points seem sound, even if they're wrong.
fadeblue: "didn't make any towntells"
storyteller: "it'll make things advance faster"
(Intent) Generic: You like Karn's recent summary, but I've responded to almost everything in his summary.
(Intent) Shock: Whose read are you barning, and what reasons do you agree with?

1) This is a misrep of Seppel. He was voting you well before I did.
2) Is this your sincere read of Karn's vote? If it is, you don't find it odd?
3) If Proph is the only one who's sincere, why don't you suspect everyone else on the wagon?

Quote from Cantripmancer

I never thought I'd go here, but you'll get more benefit from the information gleaned from seeing who moves ahead with the lynch than you will from my claim.

Except refusing to claim gives everyone an easy excuse to move ahead with your lynch. If you're town, have you not gleaned any information from the wagon so far?

Quote from FIGHTING

Quote from fadeblue

The only wagons with real support right now are Cantrip and Shock. We already got Shock's claim, so there's no reason for that wagon unless it's being pushed to lynch. Like I already said, Shock is clearly newb, and there are town tells in his posts, so I'm not willing to lynch him at this point.

I would've preferred sXe, but it looks like he's being replaced so I'm not going to be able to follow up on that the way I want. Plus no one else is even taking a stand on it, except for Proph.

Given that Cantrip is still a question mark to me, and we now have Seppel, Karn, and Proph on the wagon, this is going to be a lot more informative than Shock's wagon (especially since I currently have town reads on storyteller and Rodemy/FIGHTING).

Why sXe? I am pretty sure I demolished any possible arguments for lynching him. Why am I wrong?

Also I very clearly took a stand on sXe and yet you only mention proph as having done so. Why?

1) I've already stated sXe is a gut read, and I've learned that my gut RVS reads are pretty good.
2) I didn't say I wanted to lynch sXe. What I wanted was to push him for more information so that I could determine his alignment.
3) Your posts didn't strike me as a clear stand. Proph asked you for your opinion and you said:

Quote from FIGHTING

Quote from Prophylaxis

@FIGHTING

What is your opinion on sXe?

he hasn't done anything

i apparently deleted that from my post along the way

Quote from FIGHTING

2. nothing

Later you did expand on that:

Quote from FIGHTING

Speaking of bad votes, you're voting sxe, who has done exactly one thing across three posts. Did you research him to find if he has a history of replacing out as scum? Because he cited RL issues, and I see no reason to question that.
How about this, I'll do it for you:
CCM VI: Replaced out; cited RL issues; was town
Gotham: Modkilled due to inactivity; cited RL issues; was town
Office: Replaced out; no citation; was town
Mr. Potato Head: Replaced out; cited RL issues; was town

You even played with him in Office, so you should know this is his M.O.

Oh, and before you tell me you're voting him for his RVS post and not for the replace out (though you are voting him for the replace out)... I looked at that too, and the results aren't in your favor. There's a mix of behaviors, which tells me that a noncommittal RVS post is null from him.

But this is simply saying that we should ignore him. Or are you already writing him off as town without wanting to look into him further?

@Rancid: I do think he has a good chance of being scum, because it's pretty rare for a townie to make multiple large posts like he did where I don't pick up a town tell. This is the same way I felt about desCoures in Redux 2.

More importantly, I have strong town reads on Seppel (barring some bizarre gambit) and Generic, and lighter but still solid town reads on Rodemy/FIGHTING and storyteller. My gut told me sXe has a good chance of being scum, but other than that, no one has set off any alarms so far. So I'm fine with pursuing a wagon that I think will yield more information.

Out of the remaining players, the key alignments that need to be known are Shock, Cantrip, Karn, and more recently Proph. We've already run a wagon on Shock and he has claimed. Meanwhile, there happens to be a wagon on Cantrip that involves both Karn and Proph, so this looks like a gold mine of information that can potentially complete the puzzle.

Quote from Seppel

I am disgusted by this post.

You are so passive that, if you're town, I will forever hate having to be on your team until you take some freaking initiative.

I'm a reactive player, and this game has had almost nothing worth reacting to.

But you won't have to worry about that after this game anyway, since I'm going to avoid any future games you're in (if I even play at all).

The only wagons with real support right now are Cantrip and Shock. We already got Shock's claim, so there's no reason for that wagon unless it's being pushed to lynch. Like I already said, Shock is clearly newb, and there are town tells in his posts, so I'm not willing to lynch him at this point.

I would've preferred sXe, but it looks like he's being replaced so I'm not going to be able to follow up on that the way I want. Plus no one else is even taking a stand on it, except for Proph.

Given that Cantrip is still a question mark to me, and we now have Seppel, Karn, and Proph on the wagon, this is going to be a lot more informative than Shock's wagon (especially since I currently have town reads on storyteller and Rodemy/FIGHTING).

Given that Shock has already claimed, Cantrip looks like the best wagon right now.
Unvote, Vote Cantripmancer

That should be L-3.

Based on yesterday's posts, Rodemy's slot looks more like town.

Sorry for the lack of posting over the last two days. Been busy with work and gaming.

Catching up, some points of concern:

- sXe has still posted nothing (though he did mention RL issues)

- I'm uncomfortable with Proph joining me on the sXe vote, based on what he said:

Quote from Prophylaxis

I agree with fadeblue on the sXe/Silent Prophet read; his first post was extremely passive and he didn't even place a vote on Sir Karn. Lurking + replacing out are all hallmarks of scum as well. I can't get enough of a read on fadeblue and I don't trust Seppel's meta usage, so I'm inclined to /barn fadeblue on all of the reasons he stated.

The problem is that I haven't even stated my reasons yet; I've been waiting for a response to evaluate. His reasoning for being inclined to barn me also seems to indicate that he's wary of Seppel being scum, though I don't see any hint of that in the rest of his posts.

- Seppel continues to tie people together, all stemming from Shock, yet doesn't have much interest in pushing that. First it was Shock + LnG, then it was + me (+ Cantrip?), now it's + Cantrip + Proph. I haven't seen enough of Seppel's game to know if this is typical for him, but it's not quite the same as Amistarian (there are at least traces of his PoE approach remaining). I think the odds are still in favor of him being town, but if he's scum, I feel like Shock was an early bus attempt.

- Despite the size of Cantrip's question walls, I still haven't seen any town tells yet. I also have no idea of his reads or who he's trying to pursue.

I've been waiting for Seppel to vote me, and I think this is actually indicative of him being town. It was clear in Amistarian that he thinks he's now an expert on my meta, despite having never played with me as town, and apparently unfamiliar with the way I hunt scum. However, knowing Seppel, this lines up exactly with how I would expect a town Seppel to react.

Rodemy looks worse to me than Shock on this wagon, since it's clear Shock's a newb. Rodemy apparently has experience, though, so his votes on Seppel and me are both terrible.

Generic's latest posts almost 100% confirm him as town, I think.

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting on sXe. I've learned to trust my gut, especially in RVS.
(Note: the one misgiving I have about Seppel is that he is trying to compare sXe here to Iso in Amistaria, which he should know is a clear misrep)

@Rodemy: How much experience do you have?

@Cantrip: I don't know Karn's meta, so that's possible. The key is whether Karn has previously demonstrated that he normally discerns between scum behavior and newb behavior - if he has, then I agree that it's a scum tell.

Quote from Rancid Raptor

Actually thats a good question. Those voting LnGrrr, is that reliant on him being Scum WITH shockwave? Because personaly I could see him being scum without shockwave being scum too.

Care to explain why you feel this way? Or is this another barn like your vote on Karn?

Because if you really think LnG can be scum without Shock, why do you say it's a good question?

I don't really get the LnG push. It looks like it's dependent on him being scum with Shock? Or do you think a scum LnG would react like that to a wagon on town Shock?

Fighting your lynch might not save you, but it will make the wagon easier to dissect.

If you care about surviving, then the other thing you can do is change your playstyle so you don't easily get wagoned in the first place.

Lynching town is not bad, per se, but the game would be so much easier if townies stopped making themselves easy to lynch. Make the scum work for those mislynches.

After a quick reread, I have slight town reads on storyteller and LnG as well.

Still waiting on sXe.