Silumgar is also a perfect answer to Elspeth-based control decks. Kills all her tokens, can't die to her -3, Hexproof to avoid other removal. End Hostilities is still an issue, but that's no different than any other finisher in Standard. I definitely think that dragon will see some play.
Atarka is the all-in bomb, Lightform is the solid card. I don't think either is wrong. At FNM or something similar I'd probably take Atarka to feed the inner Timmy. If it was a GP day 2 draft or something, I take Lightform for the consistency.
To anyone saying Reach of Shadows might wheel: that day will never come, and if it does, I really hope I'm at that table since I'd be a lock to win it.
I take Reach. Unconditional removal > passable creatures. Neither the Dragon nor the Strike Leader are bombs, and removal is hard to come by. I'll see another random 6 mana big dude at some point very soon.
My store will continue to run Draft and Standard as its "competitive" FNM formats, with no change to prize support.
I am also adding Commander each week as a "Casual" FNM. This means I don't need to create rounds, report results, etc. Just add in the players and sanction.
The Commander FNM events will be free entry, run in 4-man pods. The winner of each pod will get an FNM promo (I'm Advanced Plus so I'll have plenty to give out). You will be able to enter these along with a "Competitive" FNM, since I'll just make a list of players who participated and sanction it at the end of the night.
This way, I can add Commander as an FNM option, without adversely affecting any of our other numbers, and without putting so much prize on the line that it turns a casual format hardcore. I'm also hopeful it will generate interest for my league players to play FNM, and vice versa.
Thoughts?
Edit: If anyone wasn't aware, stores can now schedule up to 3 "Competitive" FNM's (1x PWP) and 3 "Casual" FNM's (1 PWP for entry) weekly, for a total of 6 scheduled events. The number of events scheduled weekly doesn't impact the number of promos your store gets.
Sagu Mauler is unstoppable in testing. That card is going to be a format staple.
The issue I see with Monastery Swiftspear is that you need to cast your burn spells in main phase 1. It's a small problem, but usually burn wants to do most of their spells on their opponent's turn.
I'm using Singing Bell Strike in EDH Walls on an Axebane Guardian or Overgrown Battlement for infinite mana combos. I don't see it having any other implications though. It's not even that amazing in limited in my experience.
That's really clever. I never even thought of using that spell as an expensive, but efficient untap engine. But wouldn't something like Thassa's Ire be more efficient?
For EDH, it's all about redundancy. Thassa's Ire is another way to do it, as is Crab Umbra.
Sagu Mauler is unstoppable in testing. That card is going to be a format staple.
The issue I see with Monastery Swiftspear is that you need to cast your burn spells in main phase 1. It's a small problem, but usually burn wants to do most of their spells on their opponent's turn.
I'm using Singing Bell Strike in EDH Walls on an Axebane Guardian or Overgrown Battlement for infinite mana combos. I don't see it having any other implications though. It's not even that amazing in limited in my experience.
Except he SAID they sell for $40 where he is...and the MSRP is $24.99. Just because one store realizes no one wants this garbage for $25 and lowers the price doesn't change what the store paid for them. Know what else was 3x the MSRP? Modern Event Decks. Look how well those sold.
We can do the math here, it's not that hard. 1 in 8 packs has a mythic, so that's an 87.5% of opening a rare. 5 in 53 rares are fetches, so that's a 9.4% chance. Multiply those two together, and there's a 8.25% chance any given pack has a fetch in it. Multiply that by 36, and on average each bock should have 2.97 fetchlands. However, we're interested in the boxes with none, how likely is that? Well, each pack has a 91.7% chance of not having a fetch. 0.917^36 (multiplying the odds of each successive pack not having a fetch) gives us 0.045, or a 4.5% chance that a box has no fetchlands at all. In other words, about one in every 22 boxes will have none.*
Given the massive numbers of boxes being opened there are going to be plenty of stories exactly like this. Yes, it's unfortunate for whomever it happens to, but it's hardly out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing to be surprised about when it happens. Disappointing, certainly, but having it never happen would be far, far more surprising.
TL:DR- this will happen to 1 in every 22 boxes on average.
*This does not take into account the very slim odds of opening a foil fetchland. Because a) They're tiny and b) I don't know exact numbers on distribution for sure.
To add to the math on this, I'll do the foil part.
The current foil ratio is 1:56, which means 1 in every 57 cards will be foil. (1:56 means 1 foil to 56 non-foils, not 1 in 56 cards which would be annotated 1/56)
Since the foil replaces a common, I'll assume the foil odds take into account 14-card packs and do not include the basic land even though you can get a foil basic.
That means a booster box will have 504 cards, which maths out to 8.84 foils per box. 53 of 269 cards in the set are Rare, so assuming an equal chance of every card in the set at foil (which in my fairly significant experience seems to hold true) each foil has a 19.7% chance of being Rare, so the average box will have 1.74 foil rares (this seems to hold up to my previous claim of even distribution, as I would say 2 foil rares is the most common out of a box). With a 9.4% chance of a rare being a fetch, that results in an average of 0.16 foil fetches per box, or 1 foil fetch in every 6.25 boxes.
EDIT: If the basic lands count in the card ratio, that changes the numbers to: 9.47 foils per box, 1.87 foil rares, 0.175 foil fetches, or 1 foil fetch per 5.71 boxes. So still roughly 1/6 chances of getting a foil fetch out of a box.boxes having a foil fetch.
If 1 in 22 boxes will have no nonfoil fetch, and 1 in 6 boxes have a foil fetch, that means that approximately 1 in 132 boxes will have no normal fetch but WILL have a foil fetch.
A strong case can be made for the Aerialist, but personally I'll always go for any type of removal, even tappers. So I take Dazzling Ramparts. Blocks everything on the ground, and can also deal with an evasive threat if needed. Plus, if I come across a Kin-Tree Invocation it has incredible synergy.
I feel like Herald is going to be an outright bomb. I don't think I'd pass Mobilization ever, so I doubt I'd be passing one that also grows a huge body. And if it eats removal before impacting the board much, then they had to burn removal on my 1-drop.
While it's true that the metagame doesn't change much from Sealed to Draft, there are always a lot of cards that are nearly unplayable in Sealed but extremely good in Draft, because you can make sure to build for it. (Squadron Hawk and Slivers come to mind) Having a solid wedge deck in Sealed is far less likely than in Draft, though ironically you're far more likely to have to go 3 colors in Sealed as well.
Hooting Mandrills is my first instinct, but you're sending a pretty bad signal that way by passing See the Unwritten, which for all I know could end up being a bomb. Green in general feels like a trap here.
I think I'd go with the nearly-unconditional removal spell in Burn Away. I probably end up in Mardu, since blue and green are gonna get cut pretty fast after this, though Ponyback Brigade might make a mess of things.
ETA: Mystic is a perfectly acceptable pick too of course. My concern there is the same as with Mandrills though - there's a lot of solid blue in the pack, so you'd better be ready to pick up your other colors pack 2. I'm also just not a fan of Master the Way, for the reason Hammer gave - drawing 1 card for 5 mana seems pretty bad, especially if you're topdecking. Would it have REALLY been pushed so much to just be Spiraling Embers + Divination for a discounted cost?
I take Reach. Unconditional removal > passable creatures. Neither the Dragon nor the Strike Leader are bombs, and removal is hard to come by. I'll see another random 6 mana big dude at some point very soon.
My store will continue to run Draft and Standard as its "competitive" FNM formats, with no change to prize support.
I am also adding Commander each week as a "Casual" FNM. This means I don't need to create rounds, report results, etc. Just add in the players and sanction.
The Commander FNM events will be free entry, run in 4-man pods. The winner of each pod will get an FNM promo (I'm Advanced Plus so I'll have plenty to give out). You will be able to enter these along with a "Competitive" FNM, since I'll just make a list of players who participated and sanction it at the end of the night.
This way, I can add Commander as an FNM option, without adversely affecting any of our other numbers, and without putting so much prize on the line that it turns a casual format hardcore. I'm also hopeful it will generate interest for my league players to play FNM, and vice versa.
Thoughts?
Edit: If anyone wasn't aware, stores can now schedule up to 3 "Competitive" FNM's (1x PWP) and 3 "Casual" FNM's (1 PWP for entry) weekly, for a total of 6 scheduled events. The number of events scheduled weekly doesn't impact the number of promos your store gets.
For EDH, it's all about redundancy. Thassa's Ire is another way to do it, as is Crab Umbra.
The issue I see with Monastery Swiftspear is that you need to cast your burn spells in main phase 1. It's a small problem, but usually burn wants to do most of their spells on their opponent's turn.
I'm using Singing Bell Strike in EDH Walls on an Axebane Guardian or Overgrown Battlement for infinite mana combos. I don't see it having any other implications though. It's not even that amazing in limited in my experience.
Feels like event decks have been getting worse and worse ever since they stopped having shocklands.
Except he SAID they sell for $40 where he is...and the MSRP is $24.99. Just because one store realizes no one wants this garbage for $25 and lowers the price doesn't change what the store paid for them. Know what else was 3x the MSRP? Modern Event Decks. Look how well those sold.
To add to the math on this, I'll do the foil part.
The current foil ratio is 1:56, which means 1 in every 57 cards will be foil. (1:56 means 1 foil to 56 non-foils, not 1 in 56 cards which would be annotated 1/56)
Since the foil replaces a common, I'll assume the foil odds take into account 14-card packs and do not include the basic land even though you can get a foil basic.
That means a booster box will have 504 cards, which maths out to 8.84 foils per box. 53 of 269 cards in the set are Rare, so assuming an equal chance of every card in the set at foil (which in my fairly significant experience seems to hold true) each foil has a 19.7% chance of being Rare, so the average box will have 1.74 foil rares (this seems to hold up to my previous claim of even distribution, as I would say 2 foil rares is the most common out of a box). With a 9.4% chance of a rare being a fetch, that results in an average of 0.16 foil fetches per box, or 1 foil fetch in every 6.25 boxes.
EDIT: If the basic lands count in the card ratio, that changes the numbers to: 9.47 foils per box, 1.87 foil rares, 0.175 foil fetches, or 1 foil fetch per 5.71 boxes. So still roughly 1/6 chances of getting a foil fetch out of a box.boxes having a foil fetch.
If 1 in 22 boxes will have no nonfoil fetch, and 1 in 6 boxes have a foil fetch, that means that approximately 1 in 132 boxes will have no normal fetch but WILL have a foil fetch.
I think I'd go with the nearly-unconditional removal spell in Burn Away. I probably end up in Mardu, since blue and green are gonna get cut pretty fast after this, though Ponyback Brigade might make a mess of things.
ETA: Mystic is a perfectly acceptable pick too of course. My concern there is the same as with Mandrills though - there's a lot of solid blue in the pack, so you'd better be ready to pick up your other colors pack 2. I'm also just not a fan of Master the Way, for the reason Hammer gave - drawing 1 card for 5 mana seems pretty bad, especially if you're topdecking. Would it have REALLY been pushed so much to just be Spiraling Embers + Divination for a discounted cost?