MTG Salvation

Just some combos I will add to as I find them:

Ad Nauseam + Angel's Grace
Angel of Glory's Rise + Ashes of the Fallen
Enduring Renewal + Blasting Station
Duskmantle Guildmage + Mindcrank
Grand Architect + Pilli-Palla
Crypt Champion + Saffi Eriksdotter
Hive Mind + Pact
Death's Shadow + Varolz, the Scar-Striped

Random Pieces That Could be Broken:

• Aethermage's Touch
  
• Arcum Dagsson
  
• Beck//Call
  
• Blood Funnel
  
• Heartless Summoning
  
• Braids, Conjurer Adept
  
• Celestial Dawn
  
• Children of Korlis
  
• Clockspinning
  
• Conflagrate
  
• Conspiracy
  
• Crab Umbra
  

Random Value That could find a home:

• Agadeem Ocultist
  
• Auger of Skulls
  
• Austere Command
  
• Boseiju, Who Shelters All
  
• Brion Stoutarm
  
• Cephalid Constable
  
• Cloud Key
  
• Crumbling Ashes
  
• Cytoshape
  
• Dangerous Wager
  
• Supply//Demand

Preface:

I pushed my way through the crowded and bustling market street, it was warm and crowded. A dust hung in the air and clung to your clothes and face making it difficult to breath. Shoulder to shoulder with peasants and merchants trying to eek out the best deal. Shouts of best value and savings. A dollar here, a pickpocket there, one had to be careful of the abundant fake goods and con artists.

As I pushed through the throng of people I began to wonder if I could even find what I was looking for. The mentor I needed who could teach me the spells I needed to make it big. I spotted her off in the distance being by badgered by people just like me who just wanted the next leg up. After standing around for what seemed like hours I got her attention. She wanted only 29 tickets to teach me the majority of the spells I needed to be one of the scummiest mages of them all, a temporal fissure mage.

The transaction seemed instant as a flood of knowledge entered my mind and sent a tingling through my body. I felt confident happy that I got what I wanted but when I walked away I found I was missing and extra ten tickets! It could have been her, but it also could have been any other thief on these streets. I will never know, I felt I deserved it for being the worst kind of mage.

Content:
Last week I tried to live the dream and began the quest to go infinite on MTGO relying on the format of Momir Basic. This is my current standing collection:

Yes I built mono U fissure post.
Yes I am the worst kind of magic player.
And yes I am ashamed and probably deserved to be scammed.
But nothing will stand in my way of my success.

I have marked on my tally that I have:

• 26 = 6.5 x 04 Cloud of Faeries
• 16 = 4.0 x 04 Snap
• 02 = 5.0 x 04 CloudPost
• 08 = 2.0 x 04 Hydroblast
• 52 = $value$

52 tickets worth of trade stock but it is marked on my tally that I paid a total of 72 tickets for said investment. I can take that there are certain market modifiers for some commons and that I may have credit distributed across some bots but that shouldn't count for more than 10 tickets. After taking a closer look at my tally I found something funny: I paid 39 tickets for a trade I thought was worth 29 tickets!

The bot I suspect is tiger_n_jen. MTGO did warn me beforehand that the trade was changed so I took a look and it looked the same but my tired mind read the 39 tickets I was paying was 29 tickets. Don't go grab your pitchforks yet but be careful!

The 52 tickets worth of stuff and the 19 tickets 'cash' I have brings me up to 71 tickets up 23 from last week even after taking a 20 ticket loss buying the deck.

All of my MTGO transactions are shown below:

MTGO Tally:		       

Event		Score	Change	Total    P/L	Assets	Notes

June 21 Open: 		 (+00)	48 tix  (+00)

Momir Daily   	 1-2 	-06 tix	42 tix		
Momir 2-Man 	(2-1)	+01 tix	43 tix
PriceModifier		+01 tix	44 tix			Packs are worth 3+ tix here not 3

June 21 Close:		 (-04)	44 tix  (-04)

Momir 2-Man	(2-1)	+01 tix	45 tix 
Momir 2-Man	(2-0)	+01 tix	46 tix
Momir 2-Man	(2-0)	+01 tix	47 tix			
Momir 2-Man	(2-0)	+01 tix	48 tix			Tight game. Good play on my part over luck got there.
Momir 2-Man	(0-2)	-02 tix	46 tix			Bad swings that didn't matter Oppnenent had infite fliers
Momir 2-Man	(2-1)	+01 tix	47 tix			Super tight games, oppnent wiffed on emrakul after hiting vornclex. He also didn't know it took 4 creatures to kill gliss (he had glissa).
Momir Daily	 3-1	+12 tix	59 tix			Round 2 I lost because I made a bad swing into his defences. Round 3 I won 2-0 because he copied his legendary Morinfen with progintor mimic.
priceModifier		+02 tix	61 tix			DGM packs are worth 2 while otheres are worth 3.3-3.4

June 22 Close:		 (+17)	61 tix	(+13)		Looks like a winning streak for me. We will see what kind of a dick varience is tomorrow.

Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	59 tix
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	60 tix
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	61 tix			
Momir Daily	3-1	+12 tix	73 tix			My oppnent in the last round was super dumb. He had a plat angel on the field and had lethal a number of times and didn't take it
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	74 tix			This allowed me to take many chances at flipping anything to kill the angel. This brought his clock down to less than 3 minutes in game 1.
							MTGO glitched super hard and I won the match.
June 22 Close:		 (+13)	74 tix	(+26)

Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	72 tix			Lack of DayTime dailies makes me want pauper bad.
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	70 tix			Learn to read gisela.
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	68 tix

June 23 Close:		 (-04)	68 tix	(+20)

PauperDeckPurchase	-39 tix	29 tix			There is still value I can hawk, we will see how I calculate this into EV and the like.

June 24 Close		 (-39)	29 tix	(+03)	(22)

Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	30 tix
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	28 tix			Super sloppy play on my part
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	29 tix			Serious misplays on my part luck gets there
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	30 tix		
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	31 tix			Close but beware of F6
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	32 tix			Oppnent closed out with saying I had no skill.
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	33 tix			Akroma soo good
Momir Daily	2-2	-06 tix	27 tix			Luck sac
PauperPurchase		-14 tix	13 tix		(34)
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	14 tix
priceModifer		+03 tix	17 tix	

June 28 close:		 (-12)		(+03)

Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	18 tix
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix 16 tix
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	14 tix
Momir 2-Man	1-0	+01 tix	15 tix	
Momir 2-Man	0-1	-02 tix	13 tix
Momir Daily	3-1	+12 tix	25 tix
PriceModifer		+00 tix	25 tix
PauperPurchase		-18 tix	07 tix		(49)

June 29 close:		 (-10)		(+08)

Momir Daily	3-1	+12 tix	19 tix		(+03)	Cards go up

June 30 close:		 (+15)		(+23)

Price Modifiers are when I trade packs for tixs and scores in brackets represent match scores.

When I pump these numbers into excel I find that I have a match win rate of exactly 66% with 50 matches played and 33 matches won.

Breaking out the stats we find the standard deviation in a binomial distribution is sqrt(trials)/2 or in our case 3.5355. We expect to win 50% of our games if momir basic is completely variance based so in our trial of 50 matches we expect to win 25 matches but we won 33 . Our score is 2.2627 standard deviations from the expected mean. Using this score we can find that the probability that our score could be this if win rates are expected to be 50% and that score is 1.19%.

So solely based on my matches it is 98.8% certain that the Momir basic format has some level of skill.

Of which I a lovely video ready for you guys. My internet is being slow so I can't post it but come back tomorrow and it should be done uploading.

You know what's fun? When your LGS charges €15,- for a draft and has a whopping 4 packs total of prize support, rare redraft included.

Screw that noise time for some MODO:
With my stuff plus an entry into the Momir basic Daily I have around 48 tix. Lets play some magic for free by figuring out the best way to go infinite. 48 tix isn't enough for a real deck in any format so we'll stick to Momir Basic and sealed for now.

Let's lay down some assumptions:

• Packs are 3 tixs on the secondary market, buy and sell.
• Packs are worth 0.1 tixs once opened.
• I have a 57% game win rate across the board or a 60% match win rate .

Based on this I can calculate chances for specific finishes in either swiss or single elimination, these are shown below.

With that out of the way I can calculate an expected amount of tix out of any tournament (if the assumptions hold). The estimated values I have calculated are given as a ratio of expected tickets out over tickets in. This means numbers above 1 are profit and numbers below 1 are losses.

In case your are to lazy to read the math (I don't blame you), the expected value of limited tourneys run from 0.51 (Swiss and 4-3-2-2 Draft) all the way up to 0.80 (Phantom Sealed). What you should take away from this is that if we have only an above average win rate we need to stay the hell away from limited because in the long term you will lose money. However phantom sealed is so cheap and has an EV close enough to 1 we should use this to practice for major events and to satisfy any limited cravings we might have.

Constructed is a lot more static as the tournament payouts do not vary format to format and only vary by tournament structure so there are only 3 EV's:

2 - Mans: 0.9
8 - Mans: 0.97
Dailies: 1.75

These results speak for themselves, in order to expect to go infinite you need to play a lot of dailies. These EVs are based on a game win rate of 57%, which is something you could expect out of a Momir basic game if you play extremely tight. In other formats you could expect a 60%+ game win rate with the right deck and skill which translates to a 65%+ match win rate, which scales are EV up even further.

This means my current plan is to play Momir Basic dailies until I can build up enough of a bank roll to buy into pauper or block constructed with enough of a cushion to fall back on if things get rough.

I went 1-2 in the daily. I made some pretty bad play mistakes though so I'm not upset that I didn't cash. I wasn't focusing because I was writing this. I will do better next time.

I am currently writing a calculator that will be able to calculate these EV's based on a number of parameters which I hope to finish by the end of the month.

This week's value -6 tix down to 42.