I think you're over estimating how many people will be running those lands and if they are they're probably not running them in a full playset. Right now there's only what three Decks that run Horizon canopy? The only deck I could see running a playset would be death Shadow only for the simple fact they want to damage themselves. I don't know why anyone would take skewer out or run any less than 4 as long as you prioritize and play smart there's no reason is anything less than a bolt. Chained to the Rocks has its advantages but at the time when I tried them there were times where I wish I had the instant speed removal instead of chained. Personally I agree with the quoted message that this gives people the ability to sculpt their hands and find what they need to stop us. I would not be surprised if layline does not see more play. On top of that giving combo decks the ability to find what they need whether they're down a card or not doesn't matter once they have what they need they go off that's the point of a combo so it won't matter if they are still going down on a card or two to find their pieces if they can just find them they win the game. Devoted vizier is a two card combo that wins when that combo hits the table. All they have to do is mole and find the two pieces and when you can look at a fresh 7 every time and get rid of what you don't need they just get there 2 combo pieces in the hand and win. Neo brand we'll just do the same thing and get griselbrand out and I don't know how we deal with that outside of path and they can just nourishing Shoal their way away from us. Tron will naturally find the three lands easier and dealing with corn and wurmcoil isn't great either especially if they are able to form their hand to have it. I'm not saying that they will get it every time because of the new Mulligan rule nor am I saying they won't flood or still find a way to be Mana screwed but personally I think it dramatically helps most decks in the format except us. And I also agree with the quoted post that if they're going to allow the format to break their rule of being a turn four or five format and consistently be that way then we need something that hits harder in order to even think about competing against turn two or three wins. Even infect now will be winning on turn with a much higher consistency if they find the right cards. They now have that one Mana instant that turns a creature into a craw worm so all the sudden you're turn one glistener elf is a turn to six four with infect and all they need is might of old krosa or the one that gives + 4 + 4 off of landfall
nothing against doing your own research and by all means please do because the more people that do it the closer we get to figuring it all out but elcon already did this in the primer and if you look at the data 19 is probably your best option. Again I'm not trying to criticize or be rude or tell you not to do it but to try and save you some time from doing too many numbers we could try saying within 17221 that way you would use less time trying to figure out the other numbers because we know on the primer he use 18 to 20.I am glad that there are other people trying to investigate the right move so please do not take this in any way as me call you stupid or anything like that
I don't see why it's not an auto 4 of in everyone's book. Spectacle shouldnt be an issue ever. This is what our deck does. Deals damage. Even with 2 in hand it should nvr be an issue unless it's your only 2 or topdeck mode. But this is only us.not counting any time the opponent may do something to cause them to lose life
Thought it was hot garbage a year ago. Thought it was hot garbage last week. Still think it's hot garbage today and will continue to think that even if the winning deck has 4 copies of Vexing Devil in it.
I think that Vexing Devil is worth approximately 2 damage on average, and I'd rather play Shock than something that averages to Shock but has a large standard deviation.
i understand everyone has their own opinion and experience but when i played it, it was always 4 to the dome. i think thats changed with there being bolt, path, and push. not to mention the plethora of other ways to kill it currently so its less likely they just take 4
I think your experience implies you were playing it against a meta that never plays removal, which is extraordinarily atypical, or it's confirmation bias. I've done the math on this against typical amounts of removal from typical decks. The answer is about 2 damage on average for a turn 1 devil, and it goes down from there.
It got played in a pro tour deck that did very well on Day 1. It can't be that much garbage. I have always thought because of it being a punisher card, it did better in less competitive or skilled metagames and worse at higher levels of play, I may have to reevaluate this.
It's a mistake to attribute the success of the deck as a whole to 4 cards. Nothing about this suggests that devil is a good card that should be reevaluated and that everyone else for the last 5 years has been wrong about it. It's still hot garbage and the performance of a single deck doesn't imply that it's not.
At best, this just means that a bunch of people will come to the conclusion that it's fantastic because of a single deck and they'll play it, evaluate it by using confirmation bias, and claim it's the best thing since sliced bread. It'll be Shrine of Burning Rage all over again: hot garbage that people claim isn't hot garbage because "look at that one time it was played and the player won!"
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
And take this from someone who has admittedly said that he has played vexing devil plenty in the past and still tries currently to make it work... It is a very intriguing card that has the possibility of doing 4 damage but there is too many one Mana removal that can handle him in the format. he has gotten significantly worse since his printing. I'm not saying you can't play him and win a few games and he might be able 4 damage here and there but a lot of times You'll Play him and they'll be like okay you can have a 4/3 pass the turn and they will just bolt path or push and now he's done nothing when we could have either done Goblin guide and dealt 2 and gotten information about their deck or had Bolt ready for their face or there possible turn one creature. Back when I played him he was less susceptible two getting killed turn one or two so they would usually take the four from my experience but now the Dex have shifted since the beginning of modern and things are not the way they were. He sadly face is too many obstacles to consistently be the 4 damage that we want him to be. My latest iteration was playing him as a 3 of but has been switched to Lavamancers and A Shard volley. Trust me when I say I try make him work LOL
So in your guys' opinions, what is the best creature to put in place of guide until i get 3 more? I used 3 of my 4 guides as trade fodder when they were high to help a friend out who was in need of stuff his LGS didnt and would never have.
Thank you to everyone who contributes to this thread and keeps it alive. We may never be T1 but I'm glad there are others who try to make this deck pull out wins and test different strategies and test new cards and discuss options. No opinion or option is a stupid one. Kp the discussion coming and let's see if we can't Kp the deck rolling out random wins. There was a mono white version that I watched on youtube. The guy who plays and posted his vids is T1GlistenerElf. I wish he had his deck tech for that deck bc most of his modern decks he plays on YouTube have deck techs.
i am running a combination of stirring wildwood and/or treetop village in my latest draft, haven't haven't decided on the correct number yet; i'm on white/green by the way because they're the cards that i have a lot of in my collection, second only to black..
i like manlands in turbo fog, I have always liked to use manlands as a defensive technique than an offensive one, same reason why i'm running mishra's factories rather than mutavault in my mono black pox; but that's off-topic..
especially, stirring wildwood, this guy is (imo) a manland that works to fit that technique well, as a more defensive combat trick than a creature..
just sharing some thoughts, i had just only started working on the deck again after about 2 years and i certainly don't know the most optimal turbo fog decklist so my ideas might be a bit fringe or not so germane..
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And take this from someone who has admittedly said that he has played vexing devil plenty in the past and still tries currently to make it work... It is a very intriguing card that has the possibility of doing 4 damage but there is too many one Mana removal that can handle him in the format. he has gotten significantly worse since his printing. I'm not saying you can't play him and win a few games and he might be able 4 damage here and there but a lot of times You'll Play him and they'll be like okay you can have a 4/3 pass the turn and they will just bolt path or push and now he's done nothing when we could have either done Goblin guide and dealt 2 and gotten information about their deck or had Bolt ready for their face or there possible turn one creature. Back when I played him he was less susceptible two getting killed turn one or two so they would usually take the four from my experience but now the Dex have shifted since the beginning of modern and things are not the way they were. He sadly face is too many obstacles to consistently be the 4 damage that we want him to be. My latest iteration was playing him as a 3 of but has been switched to Lavamancers and A Shard volley. Trust me when I say I try make him work LOL
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