@Kijin: Do remember that Advent is a Mythic while Sire is only a rare. This means that there's twice as many Sires floating around, which does depress the price somewhat. That $3 gap between them is entirely reasonable.
Are you looking at a different Advent of the Wurm than I am?
Advent of the Wurm
Set Name Dragon's Maze
Rarity R
I don't remember there being a "R" in the word Mythic, but my specialty is card values, not spelling.
Well, I'm not lying or whatever, I really only got 2 shocks in 4 boxes. Perhaps the other 2 boxes from that case have lots, I dunno. I'll be opening more this weekend so hopefully I'll "catch up".
I don't think you're a liar! Like I said, one of my boxes had 0, and the boxes I had with Maze's End had off numbers of Shocks in them. I think you'll likely find more in your future boxes, I just wanted to curb any scare over a shorted supply as there will probably be a good flow of Shocks between DGR sealed and drafts all putting more copies into circulation.
I'm also a huge fan of Notion Thief, and fail to see the drawback, other than "sometimes it's just a 3/1 flash for 4", but even a 3/1 flash has uses against most decks (removal against attacking Thragtusks for example) so it would very rarely be a dead card. And of course in the right matchup, it negates several cards from their deck, and perhaps their entire strategy if it involves card draw.
The only issue with that is that we've been spoiled lately with Flash creatures and we can expect way more for the same or less mana except in response to a Sphinx's Revelation -- Thief competes with Restoration Angel (an evasive flash 4-drop with built-in card advantage [rather than opportunistic card advantage] that survives most attacks and much removal), Snapcaster Mage (similar to Resto but cheaper depending on what you're flashing back), and now Advent of the Wurm (the creature is bigger and you can flash it back with Snapcaster). Being a 3/1 for 4 is a poor place to be. It does a lot against UBW and UWG decks that rely heavily on Sphinx's Revelation, Azorius Charm, and Think Twice, but it also stands to see how those decks stack up (since the only major post-rotation event was heavily dominated by Sire of Insanity-based Jund decks piloted by and played against some of the best players in the world). It is certainly a sideboard option, but it'll take rotation before the "Flash mob" in Standard has fewer cards edging it out.
Actually, I think comparing Notion Thief with Exava is pretty reasonable -- it's a good card burdened by cards that are just way better than it at the same cost in Standard.
Edit: I also forgot Izzet Staticaster as a flash guy (that kills Notion Thief), but I also excluded UWR from my analysis, which is also kind of stupid because the deck does play Revelation and Think Twice/Azorius Charm.
I feel like alot of rares are getting undervalued, notion thief, and a few others have the chance to be broken. Notion thief is certainly the most intriguing card this set has for legacy, the only question is can he be played as a 4 drop?
Most of the rares in this set merely look cool (and are at best sideboard cards, if they're even actually playable) or need to wait for Innistrad to rotate to gain relevance. For example, Exava/Rakdos's runner is competing with Hellrider, Falkenrath Aristocrat, and Ghor-Clan Rampager -- all cards that are almost universally better than it -- for 4-drop slots in Mono- and Mostly-Red decks. Varloz, the Scar-Striped has so sicknasty applications with Death's Shadow and similar cards, but then you're playing a GB Scathe Zombies or an unaided Death's Shadow in a deck without nut combo draws.
You also have a lot of people right now suffering from that fact trying to get any value out of their jank while it's still so close to release and prices are, perceptually, high for their "junk rares."
I wouldn't move all in on any cards currently, except possibly Sire (honestly if Advent is $3 more than it, that's a huge mistake as they're the breakout card of the respective archetypes they appear in). Advent seems properly priced, Sire seems underpriced, Voice may be correctly priced but I think that depends more on Modern and Legacy outcomes more than anything, and the slow descent of value is accurate to what we've come to expect out of the third set of a block recently ($4-6 Restoration Angels, $2-3 Silverblade Paladins, $3-4 Terminus, $20 Tamiyo, $40 Bonfire).
In my first 4 boxes I opened 2 shocklands and 1 maze.
That seems almost absurdly off to me. In my first 2 boxes, I pulled 4 Shocklands and a Maze's End. After two cases, I had 17, putting the rate of Shocklands/Box somewhere around 1.33-ish (one box had 0 Shocklands, one had 3, most had 1, a couple had 2; an overseas seller informed me he was seeing roughly 1-per-box). The distribution of Maze's End seems to put off the number of Shocklands in a given box, though, as all of the boxes I opened with Maze's End had a disproportionate number of Shocklands in them. It's possible your print run may have been disrupted by the Maze's End and you wound up at the unlucky end of the curve.
Also, @r_e: Planar Cleansing does essentially the same thing as Gaze of Granite "for less" and is $0.40-.50. Having the ability to buy now and pay later is what made Deed Deed and what makes this substantially less likely to see play.
I am specifically not selling my Geists I have now because I expect them to maintain stability in the long term for Modern. I could dump and reup after rotation, but I expect a lot of people to wind up doing that and I'd rather have a stable base and get rid of things I know are completely useless outside of Standard. (this Bud's for you, Hellrider of 4 months ago)
6 damage and 6 life for four mana is a good rate. Haste triggers battalion when it hits play. Name me another red/white four drop this is actually playable in rtr/gtc ?
Does it help your speculation at all to know that Spark Trooper is not played at all in Block, a narrower format that plays especially to guild-color combinations with more limited available card selection that often is a good benchmark for future trends in Standard?
Man, that's rough, I don't envy you at all but do admire your courage.
Know that I'm here for your support, we all are
thanks that really means a lot to me. once i am finally trans atlantic i'm going to start posting with a different font color so everyone can know i've successfully made it to the other side and found the real me.
are there any good colors that are representative of trans atlantic countries i could use in this endeavor? i should do my research, but maybe you guys have some good ideas.
Ive heard its scenic but the weather leaves some to be desired. Does your recent reclassification as transatlantic limit you to Europe or are you open to other locales? Because I know it's technically Africa, but Morocco is really frieking nice.
i don't want to limit myself to labels regarding locale, especially knowing there's going to be a lot of paperwork i need to fill out before i get there. do you have any idea how hard it is to be physically located in the northeastern U.S. and get acknowledged as being in another country entirely? i don't even have a passport. this really is going to be a long and difficult journey, but i'm willing to put in the hard work so people know they're not just funding an attention-grabbing and cosmetic measure.
Portugal is a nice country, have you thought about it?
becoming trans atlantic isn't so simple as just thinking about a new location and going there, it's a long, thought-out process that takes a lot of personal change and help from others. i'm actually thinking of putting together a kickstarter or chipin to help me with the transition.
I see you recently became trans atlantic. Are you in Europe now?
yes, i wanted everyone to know i was trans atlantic so everyone could acknowledge that fact. i am still physically located in the northeastern coastal area of the US but i'm looking to transition to a coastal region of europe over the next few months.
Hello I have submitted my official qualifying image to post in this thread (the (Mini) Gutter) and am now making my official post in the mini gutter after going through the approvals process. Thank you.
I think there is a lot of chicken littling in this thread regarding the availability of MM. One very large print run is still limited compared to multiple print runs over 3-4 months (or whatever the standard period of print running is on most sets at this point in Magic), yet still puts an unbelievable amount of product out on the market for consumption. Comparing a mass-release product like this to FTV requires an absurd amount of hyperbole, unless the limited GP following MM's appearance is going to be From the Vault: 20 Limited.
Breeding fear on the grounds that "But we don't know how big or small a 'limited' release is" generates a lot of hype and prospectively inflates card prices for cards printed specifically to deflate card prices for Modern.
Paradise Mantle has been a $3 card on casual play alone for as long as I can remember and was from Fifth Dawn, one of the low points for Magic in the Modern era. It broke out in a deck and people rushed to buy up copies. This is nothing new; $10 is nothing comparatively, considering the value rush on Daybreak Coronet for an incredibly fragile "combo."
I understand the scare for cornered markets and all, but tripling the value of a popular casual Uncommon valued at $3 because of casual appeal is not even close to much of the speculation jumping we've seen over the past few years.
I'd just like to point out that this card has often been a "sleeper" hit that could spike because it's "so good yet no one knows it", and it never has. I don't really see much that changing any time soon to be honest. The only reason I would consider buying in to this card is because it's dirt cheap.
In the context of my post, it's not a card I advocate speculating on, but it is an example of a card that is under the radar (still very in expensive and readily available) that is also not likely to be reprinted. The reason it is still under the radar and not likely to be reprinted is because it has been tried unsuccessfully in Modern and failed against cards that actually do things compared to it (Aven Mindcensor, the taxing Abuna from SoM). I only mentioned Shadow of a Doubt because, as you said, it is commonly suggested as a speculation target. I don't have any bright ideas for pre-Zendikar speculation targets that aren't also likely to be reprinted.
As for Germanturkey's post -- advocating for speculating on all Modern cards because maybe one of them will not be reprinted seems like a much bigger waste of money than speculating on cards you know won't be reprinted that are likely to gain, particularly since there aren't that many Modern staples that haven't made huge gains since breaking out in Modern. You're free to speculate on Shadow of a Doubt or put money into Spell Snare in hopes that $7-10 turns into $15-20, but you'd be doing so on a razor's edge, because your $7-10 could be severely deflated into the distant future before MM copies of a given card dry up and/or keep the price flat.
I hope this clears up any confusion over my previous post.
I would like to point out that speculating on any card that can be printed in Modern Masters is likely not a safe investment. It's not just that the cards can be reprinted, but because Modern Masters is a set specifically designed to give players a reasonable in to the format, they likely WILL be reprinted.
Listing cards printed before Zendikar should disqualify the suggestion unless the card is supremely under the radar (ie: Shadow of a Doubt).
Good speculation targets are cards valued less than standard prices printed after Scars block and that see some reasonable amount of play or have a very high power level/unique effect that can be broken or pushed to great success. Examples of this include Birthing Pod, Melira, and Spellskite, the latter of which jumped up not too long ago because of speculation.
Thrun is another good example others have mentioned, as is Batterskull.
I'm a big fan of Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Phantom Image after getting told the first time I missed initial speculation on it.
Are you looking at a different Advent of the Wurm than I am?
Advent of the Wurm
Set Name Dragon's Maze
Rarity R
I don't remember there being a "R" in the word Mythic, but my specialty is card values, not spelling.
I don't think you're a liar! Like I said, one of my boxes had 0, and the boxes I had with Maze's End had off numbers of Shocks in them. I think you'll likely find more in your future boxes, I just wanted to curb any scare over a shorted supply as there will probably be a good flow of Shocks between DGR sealed and drafts all putting more copies into circulation.
The only issue with that is that we've been spoiled lately with Flash creatures and we can expect way more for the same or less mana except in response to a Sphinx's Revelation -- Thief competes with Restoration Angel (an evasive flash 4-drop with built-in card advantage [rather than opportunistic card advantage] that survives most attacks and much removal), Snapcaster Mage (similar to Resto but cheaper depending on what you're flashing back), and now Advent of the Wurm (the creature is bigger and you can flash it back with Snapcaster). Being a 3/1 for 4 is a poor place to be. It does a lot against UBW and UWG decks that rely heavily on Sphinx's Revelation, Azorius Charm, and Think Twice, but it also stands to see how those decks stack up (since the only major post-rotation event was heavily dominated by Sire of Insanity-based Jund decks piloted by and played against some of the best players in the world). It is certainly a sideboard option, but it'll take rotation before the "Flash mob" in Standard has fewer cards edging it out.
Actually, I think comparing Notion Thief with Exava is pretty reasonable -- it's a good card burdened by cards that are just way better than it at the same cost in Standard.
Edit: I also forgot Izzet Staticaster as a flash guy (that kills Notion Thief), but I also excluded UWR from my analysis, which is also kind of stupid because the deck does play Revelation and Think Twice/Azorius Charm.
Most of the rares in this set merely look cool (and are at best sideboard cards, if they're even actually playable) or need to wait for Innistrad to rotate to gain relevance. For example, Exava/Rakdos's runner is competing with Hellrider, Falkenrath Aristocrat, and Ghor-Clan Rampager -- all cards that are almost universally better than it -- for 4-drop slots in Mono- and Mostly-Red decks. Varloz, the Scar-Striped has so sicknasty applications with Death's Shadow and similar cards, but then you're playing a GB Scathe Zombies or an unaided Death's Shadow in a deck without nut combo draws.
You also have a lot of people right now suffering from that fact trying to get any value out of their jank while it's still so close to release and prices are, perceptually, high for their "junk rares."
I wouldn't move all in on any cards currently, except possibly Sire (honestly if Advent is $3 more than it, that's a huge mistake as they're the breakout card of the respective archetypes they appear in). Advent seems properly priced, Sire seems underpriced, Voice may be correctly priced but I think that depends more on Modern and Legacy outcomes more than anything, and the slow descent of value is accurate to what we've come to expect out of the third set of a block recently ($4-6 Restoration Angels, $2-3 Silverblade Paladins, $3-4 Terminus, $20 Tamiyo, $40 Bonfire).
That seems almost absurdly off to me. In my first 2 boxes, I pulled 4 Shocklands and a Maze's End. After two cases, I had 17, putting the rate of Shocklands/Box somewhere around 1.33-ish (one box had 0 Shocklands, one had 3, most had 1, a couple had 2; an overseas seller informed me he was seeing roughly 1-per-box). The distribution of Maze's End seems to put off the number of Shocklands in a given box, though, as all of the boxes I opened with Maze's End had a disproportionate number of Shocklands in them. It's possible your print run may have been disrupted by the Maze's End and you wound up at the unlucky end of the curve.
Also, @r_e: Planar Cleansing does essentially the same thing as Gaze of Granite "for less" and is $0.40-.50. Having the ability to buy now and pay later is what made Deed Deed and what makes this substantially less likely to see play.
Does it help your speculation at all to know that Spark Trooper is not played at all in Block, a narrower format that plays especially to guild-color combinations with more limited available card selection that often is a good benchmark for future trends in Standard?
thanks that really means a lot to me. once i am finally trans atlantic i'm going to start posting with a different font color so everyone can know i've successfully made it to the other side and found the real me.
are there any good colors that are representative of trans atlantic countries i could use in this endeavor? i should do my research, but maybe you guys have some good ideas.
i don't want to limit myself to labels regarding locale, especially knowing there's going to be a lot of paperwork i need to fill out before i get there. do you have any idea how hard it is to be physically located in the northeastern U.S. and get acknowledged as being in another country entirely? i don't even have a passport. this really is going to be a long and difficult journey, but i'm willing to put in the hard work so people know they're not just funding an attention-grabbing and cosmetic measure.
becoming trans atlantic isn't so simple as just thinking about a new location and going there, it's a long, thought-out process that takes a lot of personal change and help from others. i'm actually thinking of putting together a kickstarter or chipin to help me with the transition.
yes, i wanted everyone to know i was trans atlantic so everyone could acknowledge that fact. i am still physically located in the northeastern coastal area of the US but i'm looking to transition to a coastal region of europe over the next few months.
Breeding fear on the grounds that "But we don't know how big or small a 'limited' release is" generates a lot of hype and prospectively inflates card prices for cards printed specifically to deflate card prices for Modern.
I understand the scare for cornered markets and all, but tripling the value of a popular casual Uncommon valued at $3 because of casual appeal is not even close to much of the speculation jumping we've seen over the past few years.
In the context of my post, it's not a card I advocate speculating on, but it is an example of a card that is under the radar (still very in expensive and readily available) that is also not likely to be reprinted. The reason it is still under the radar and not likely to be reprinted is because it has been tried unsuccessfully in Modern and failed against cards that actually do things compared to it (Aven Mindcensor, the taxing Abuna from SoM). I only mentioned Shadow of a Doubt because, as you said, it is commonly suggested as a speculation target. I don't have any bright ideas for pre-Zendikar speculation targets that aren't also likely to be reprinted.
As for Germanturkey's post -- advocating for speculating on all Modern cards because maybe one of them will not be reprinted seems like a much bigger waste of money than speculating on cards you know won't be reprinted that are likely to gain, particularly since there aren't that many Modern staples that haven't made huge gains since breaking out in Modern. You're free to speculate on Shadow of a Doubt or put money into Spell Snare in hopes that $7-10 turns into $15-20, but you'd be doing so on a razor's edge, because your $7-10 could be severely deflated into the distant future before MM copies of a given card dry up and/or keep the price flat.
I hope this clears up any confusion over my previous post.
Listing cards printed before Zendikar should disqualify the suggestion unless the card is supremely under the radar (ie: Shadow of a Doubt).
Good speculation targets are cards valued less than standard prices printed after Scars block and that see some reasonable amount of play or have a very high power level/unique effect that can be broken or pushed to great success. Examples of this include Birthing Pod, Melira, and Spellskite, the latter of which jumped up not too long ago because of speculation.
Thrun is another good example others have mentioned, as is Batterskull.
I'm a big fan of Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Phantom Image after getting told the first time I missed initial speculation on it.