I believe it was said here:
http://www.starcitygames.com/articles/38272_The-Modern-Format-Returneth.html
(At the bottom)
That you don't want to tap out on turn 2 for search because of the diminishing returns or effectiveness of remand. I could also see 1-2 tasigur in the main based on his size and activated ability. I have yet to play it but definitely interested!
- thnkr
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mikemaz posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings TurnsPosted in: Deck Creation (Modern) -
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SwissRolls posted a message on [Primer] MonoU Tron - "The well-oiled machine"Went 3-0 last night at my lgs, like normal it was kind of a small tournament but still fun regardless. My meta is very well suited for us. I played the list I posted above (its also in my signature under the modern button).Posted in: Control
Round 1: Tezzerator (won 2-1)
I had lent cards to my opponent so they could actually play tonight, so I knew what they were on and what kind of hands to keep.
Game 1: Kept a pretty controlling hand that still had access to quick tron with counterspell backup. turn 7 I played and cracked mindslaver with the opponent tapped out. They conceded.
SideBoard:
In: 3 Surgical Extraction, 2 Negate, 3 Thought-Knot Seer
Out: 3 Wurmcoil Engine, 4 Dismember, 1 Expedition Map
Game 2: This Game I thought would be easy with an opening hand with 2 surgicals, 3 lands and 2 condescend. This game went very long and everytime I tried surgically he had 2 thopterfoundry which basically made it impossible. It went back and forth but I was definitely outplayed in the long game. I did not draw any real threats and my repeals had been surgicalled early on in the game. I had done a cool play with remanding my surgical 2 times (the first remand drawing a second) but stil my opponent had enough mana and artifacts so sac. I probably could have played better in that scenario as my opponent was always leaving up 1 mana when comboing to avoid the surgical.
Game 3: This game also went extremely long but was a really good back and forth game. I played early counterspells and my opponent tapped out to play a pithing needle on oblivion stone, and play a thopter foundry. I didn't have a counterspell, but this was going to my turn 4 and I played a Thought-Knot Seer taking their last card, a Whir of Invention. My opponent then topdecks the sword I gets back up in life, evening it out. I end up drawing a surgical and they play around it. I drew the oblivion stone with tron mana and got their sword. The game was pretty much over at this point as I had academy ruins and tron.
Round 2: Grixis Death's Shadow (2-0)
Being a smaller store, every person who plays consistently knows what decks people are on.
Game 1: I kept an okay 6card hand; 2 lands, a dismember, a condescend and a Thirst For Knowledge, scrying a land to the top. My opponent landed some early hand disruption leaving me nearly threatless however both of us draw runner lands. (feels bad for both of us but my opponent especially). I then land Wurmcoil Engine the turn after they play a Gurmag Angler. we both pass, I draw a second Wurmcoil Engine and play it.
SideBoard:
In: 1 Engineered Explosives
Out: 1 Field of Ruin
Game 2: My hand is kind of slow but has quick tron and a Wurmcoil Engine. My Opponent Fetch shocks and thoughtscours. I play land map. Turn 2 they thoughtseize my wurmcoil and play a gurmag angler. Turn 2 I play another tron land. they play 2 death shadows after cycling a Street Wraith. the next turn I play island in order to have thirst up. They temur battle rage and get me down to 2 from 15. I land tron and a topdeck a wurmcoil engine. They fail to draw an card that can deal me 2 damage. I drew a mindslaver with having another tower in hand. I then proceed slaver them and attack the gurmag into me, blocking with the wurmcoil. I drew bolt for them and killed their 3/3 Death's Shadow as well. Leaving them at 10, zero cards and 1 Death's Shadow. I attack in with the wurmcoil putting them at 4, but I drew a second wurmcoil and play it second mainphase.
Round 3: Mardu Pyromancer (2-1)
We agreed to split prizes because its better for both of us, but we decided to play it out for fun anyway.
Game 1: This is a super back and forth game where both of us answer eachother's threats. I didn't draw a wurmcoil making the game a little more difficult. I dismembered an early pyromancer but it didn't matter, I pretty much drew mono counterspells and lands. I had a slaver but all I did with it was kill another one of their own pyromancers with it. Then thoughtseized their Lotv. They drew Kolaghan's Command and both back a reveler they discarded earlier in the game to a faithless looting. that Reveler killed me.
SideBoard:
In: 1 Engineered Explosives
Out: 1 Field of Ruin
Both Games 2 and 3 Looked fairly similar.
I had early tron in game 2 with an EE on zero to kill tokens for early aggression. Landed mindslaver to screw them up and then drew the academy ruins with 12 mana.
Game 3:
This was a little longer than game 2 with me drawing multiple walking ballista killing off early threats and drawing out removal. I drew a wurmcoil engine and blocked an attacking Young Pyromancer, after blocks they Kolaghan's Command it and buyback a reveler. I managed to have the counter for that and it Scrys me into the mindslaver lock.
My lgs meta is fairly good for us, the decks last night being; 2 Mardu Pyromancer, 1 Grixis Death's Shadow, 1 Kiki-Evolution, 1 8-Rack, 1 Storm, 1 Tezzerator and myself.
Somethings I've noticed from starting the youtube videos and taking slightly better notes, Is I tend to play a little hastily and get punished when I do. So i'll try to slowdown and play a little more conservatively. I tend to think I've turned the corner a turn earlier than I actually have. -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)The past page has only proven my point. I never said Twin was a monster. I never even addressed the arguments in favor of Twin's unbanning. Nor did I compare Twin's rationale to other cards. I simply said that Twin users tend to downplay all the arguments against their unban wishes and not consider alternate arguments, unlike those who debate other cards on the banlist. This is precisely the level of blind certainty and confidence we have seen from pro-Twin users in the past page.Posted in: Modern Archives -
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SwissRolls posted a message on [Primer] MonoU Tron - "The well-oiled machine"I can definitely start recording my games then and post them. I appreciate the quick feedback tooPosted in: Control -
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SwissRolls posted a message on [Primer] MonoU Tron - "The well-oiled machine"I was just kind of inquiring if Maurizioutron or anyone else wouldn't mind if I used xmage, I'm fairly comfortable with it. I would stream it if people wanted me to. If not I can always just record me playing matches and post them to youtube.Posted in: Control -
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Posted in: Control
This looks interesting. I didnt play it and my initial thoughts are we want to play 4 Lilianas, 4 Ravens Crime not only because they are must have in traditional build but also they have synergy with "you cant play cards from your hand". Another thought we want something with flashback and jump-start but seems there nothing playable (Faithless Looting?) So Id replace one removal and probably Thoughtseize with Liliana and RC and replaced 1-2 lands with Urborg (life, revolt and shuffle convenience) and maybe some mana sink land. Blightning seems not needed while we arent even full on Wrench Minds. Also maybe 4 Experimental Frenzy is not optimal and 2-3 is better. Pack Rat can be also good because mana sink and absense of Smallpox. Im going to test it online, too bad Experimental Frenzy already jumped from jank rare and Blackcleave Cliffs are on the peak now.Quote from thnkr »So I just tested it. It was absolutely bonkers. Here's the list I tested:
DeckMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards // 60 Maindeck
// 4 Artifact
4 The Rack
// 8 Enchantment
4 Shrieking Affliction
4 Experimental Frenzy
// 5 Instant
2 Dismember
3 Fatal Push// 23 Land
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Blood Crypt
8 Swamp// 3 Planeswalker
3 Liliana of the Veil
// 17 Sorcery
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
4 Collective Brutality
3 Raven's Crime
3 Wrench Mind
I didn't test with a sideboard, just wanted to see how it would work out. I included eight fetches to keep spells on top when I would hit a land clump. I also included a single Overgrown Tomb, expecting that being able to fetch for green could be good for sideboard options. White may be better, though. It worked exactly as I imagined it would, just chaining discard/Racks/removal/etc. Raven's Crime and Collective Brutality made great use of cards drawn that I couldn't play. -
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sekiars posted a message on What Deck Should I Play Since I'm on a budget?I do agree that the deck is good and has many good points going for it, I even read all your posts on the skred thread about your spreadsheets and gave a good look at them aswell. The only thing is that it's just not the deck for me.Posted in: Budget (Modern) -
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x_Checkmate_x posted a message on Modern Esper Draw-GoJeez, I came to view this thread for some sideboarding tips; not to be told "just go play miracles". If I wanted to play something I know will win in my local meta, I'd just play Burn. I play Esper because it's fun.Posted in: Control -
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k0no posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)Posted in: Modern Archives
Blue Tron, eh? That makes me super happy. What a time to be alive haha 😆 - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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Note: First time readers are recommended to start reading from page 7, that is when the deck took a competitive twist. For a full comprehension of the variety of decks evolution take your time and read it all.
Also thank you to Zerodown for the idea and help in creating the deck.
Fateseal Control, or Lantern Control as it is known as now, is a prison deck that works to limit an opponent's access to cards with quality in regards to the game being played. While many control decks prevent spells from being resolved (permission magic, like Counterspell) or from being played (taxing magic, like Trinisphere), this deck aims to restrict access to cards. By working this way, the opponent is no longer playing their deck – They are playing a version of his or her deck that requires that you approve of what cards they have added.
The deck makes great use of the idea of inevitability. Jeff Cunningham wrote an article about this theme, and it’s definitely something worth reading, whether you plan on piloting Lantern Control or want to ensure you are prepared to beat it. The power behind Lantern is that it is one of the most inevitable decks in the current Modern metagame. The longer the game goes, the more likely the Lantern deck will win – So long as the pilot makes correct plays. There are currently few decks, if any, that have as much inevitability as Lantern, making it extremely powerful against a large portion of the metagame.
Resiliency: The unique method by which this deck controls the opponent makes it resilient against a vast number of decks in the meta. No matter what deck is played, the pilot needs access to cards relevant to furthering their gameplan in order to, well, make progress on that gameplan.
Complexity: There are some who enjoy playing this deck because each game works out like a puzzle. Sometimes the correct line of play is to restrict the opponent from drawing lands. Sometimes, it is to force the opponent to draw nothing but lands. Decision trees for this deck are vastly different, in size and complexity, than nearly every other deck. This is, in my opinion, the most skill intensive deck that I have ever played. I can say that in the games that I have lost, the majority of them was because I made a mistake, not because I didn't have a correct line of play open to me given the resources at my disposal.
With that said, a word of warning: This is one of the most skill intensive decks to pilot, let alone adjust for metagame. Compounding this, decisions often must be made extremely quickly in order to avoid losing to the clock on MTGO and drawing during a tournament.
Personalization: Many decks in the modern meta have very little room for personal touches. This deck, however, has seen many personalized builds. The range of colors available to include, win conditions to use, and preferred answers to other decks in a meta is extraordinary. The key cards in the deck are colorless and low in converted mana cost, allowing for a wide selection of card choices that may be considered.
This is a common misconception about the deck. Many people will glance at the deck and see the cards and not the mechanics of the core engine. There were a select few cards in the Modern cardpool that could deal with this deck and that can get around the control method at the core in the earlier years of development of the deck. Among these are Ancient Grudge and cards that allow an opponent to shuffle their graveyard back into their library. As the cardpool in the Modern format increased, so did the number of cards that could disrupt the way that the Lantern deck works. Even these cards cannot absolutely secure a win, however. The fault with this view that the deck is "weak to artifact hate" is that the very core of the deck runs on being able to choose what cards the opponent gets to draw. In the videos section of this primer are a large number of videos in which the opponents included cards in their decks to deal with Lantern Control - they just never got to play them. They just got discarded or were milled away, never to be drawn and played.
The positive of this is that the players who make this assumption will end up losing due to their lack of comprehension of the engine, only to be upset because they lost to a "troll deck".
The deck doesn't restrict access to all cards in an opponent's deck. If the opponent has more threats in their deck than the Lantern pilot has “mill rocks” out, then the opponent still has inevitability. Eventually, enough threats will slip through that they’ll be able to piece together a win. This is where the long evolution of the deck comes in. Many variations have been tried in order to patch up this weakness, dealing with threats, including miracles, many forms of spot removal, and a number of other forms of threat disruption, even some very creative ones. What ended up proving to be the most effective was Ensnaring Bridge. It works perfectly with the low converted mana cost of the core combo cards, isn’t reliant on playing specific colors, and essentially plays like a Moat – but better.
This card brings us to another stage in the evolution of the deck. The realization came about that, essentially, we just need to reduce the number of active cards in an opponent’s deck to be less than or equal to the number of mill rocks available. The more threats we could simply neutralize with each single card in our deck, the less likely the opponent is going to have those cards in consecutive order in his or her deck. This brought about additions like Pithing Needle and Surgical Extraction. A single Needle resolves all issues of, say, all copies of The One Ring or Inkmoth Nexus, stealing the game away. In addition, it shuts off any attempt to struggle out of the prison with cards like Teferi, Time Raveler or Boseiju, Who Endures.
It was also found that discard spells were of great use in further impeding the speed and effectiveness of an opponent’s deck while the prison was constructed. The information gained from seeing an opponent’s hand is also a great resource in order to make the best decisions concerning cards the opponent is most reliant on in order to make progress.
The main win condition can be to simply “mill” an opponent out. It may seem slow at first, the occasional single card at a time, slowly and steadily controlling the opponent. But as the game goes on, more mill pieces are drawn, and three, then four, then five, and so on, cards are being milled for every turn the opponent takes. And remember, since the opponent is drawing nothing but dead cards, the card that they are drawing for their turn is another card "milled". In the right hands, the game progresses rather quickly after the initial lock is set.
Some decks, however, have outs to that. Some decks run cards like Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. At first, one or two Pyrite Spellbomb proved to be enough to provide an alternate win condition against these decks when combined with Academy Ruins. It was often slower than the mill plan though, and more mana intensive overall. Ghirapur AEther Grid was then printed, and this proved to increase the speed of the clock with less total mana requirements, and is therefore an option that some builders and pilots prefer. Many decks run some number of Pyxis of Pandemonium which helps against cards like Ancient Grudge and possible Snapcaster Mage or Wrenn and Six targets. Casting Surgical Extraction or Extirpate with an Emrakul shuffle trigger on the stack will also resolve this problem, but it does not stop the graveyard from being shuffled one last time.
Support cards that proved efficient with this now solid plan were fleshed out. Ancient Stirrings has typically been a staple for most of the competitive lists during the deck’s history. What has probably been one of the greatest support cards for the deck is Whir of Invention, so long as the manabase is built to support it. Profane Tutor has also recently proved to be extremely useful for the deck. Even Glint-Nest Crane has provided Lantern Control a way to block creatures and act as a pseudo Ancient Stirrings, although it isn't the most popular option. Mishra's Bauble has been shown to be beneficial to the deck as well. It can be used to dig through the deck quicker for cards needed to solidify the lock. It's even useful as a virtual mana source for Whir of Invention. When combined with a Codex Shredder, Ghoulcaller's Bell, or Pyxis of Pandemonium, it can be used as a card filtering effect to dig even deeper.
Due to the nature of the core prison being colorless, someone designing their own flavor of Lantern Control has quite a few options. There are few, but some, budget options and plans, usually revolving around what mana sources can be afforded.
Sideboard cards for the deck are typically cards that simply aim to redesign the prison according to the opponent’s deck. Sometimes that means swapping in cards that are uniquely designed to neutralize an opponent’s gameplan, using cards like Cursed Totem, Grafdigger’s Cage, and Leyline of Sanctity.
Most recent decklists can be found on the deck’s Discord channel
A short note on card choices for this deck: If a nonland card does not specifically contribute to constructing the prison lock, neutralizing as many cards in an opponent's deck as possible, or works to obtain one of those two types of cards, then it is likely not a good candidate for the deck. Many lackluster cards have been suggested in the years that major contributing members of the thread have been working on this deck. Some of these cards are specifically mentioned in the Recurring Suggestions section of this primer. If you feel that a suggestion is worthy, please test that suggestion yourself and provide results of games with that suggestion rather than posting it and expecting others to test it for you.
Lantern of Insight - A key piece for the deck. This is what provides the information required to know when to pull the trigger on a mill rock, ensuring that the opponent draws few, if any, cards relevant to the gamestate. The second ability is icing on the cake. Can be used with Academy Ruins as a soft-lock in a pinch. Recommend 4.
Codex Shredder - One of the available mill rocks at our disposal. Again, with a second ability that is just icing on the cake. Recommend 4.
Ghoulcaller's Bell - Another useful mill rock. Has the added benefit of not targeting, and can be used to self-mill while simultaneously fatesealing an opponent.
Pyxis of Pandemonium - Much like Ghoulcaller's Bell. The exile effect may come in handy against cards like Ancient Grudge or Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. The second ability may be just high enough in mana cost to not be particularly relevant. However, I have personally used it in corner cases, exiling an Ensnaring Bridge with it and then using the second ability to put the Bridge directly into play, avoiding a counter.
The specific numbers of each mill rock you decide to include into your list should largely be determined by your expected metagame. If you expect a large amount of cards like Ancient Grudge or Snapcaster Mage, Pyxis of Pandemonium might be the better choice over Ghoulcaller's Bell.
Ensnaring Bridge - Neutralizes a majority of the creatures playing in the Modern format. Recommend 4, 3 is fine if running the Whir of Invention build.
Pithing Needle - Excellent at taking care of a variety of threats an opponent might have, such as The One Ring, Engineered Explosives, Teferi, Time Raveler, Griselbrand, Inkmoth Nexus, and so on. This card is one of the reasons why the deck requires a deep knowledge of the metagame to play correctly. Recommend 2-4.
Surgical Extraction/Extirpate - Assists in shutting off many of the graveyard based strategies that exists in Modern, in addition to reducing the overall number of live cards an opponent might have in their deck and providing information about what we need to watch out for. Recommend 0-4. The more combo decks you expect to face, the better these cards are for crippling those decks. They are also particularly good against decks that run very few threats, taking out a large percentage of those threats with a single card. Not as useful against decks with a lot of diversity of threats.
Urza’s Saga - Urza’s Saga seems almost tailor-made for Lantern. It provides a legitimate alternate win condition for the deck in the form of construct tokens and tutors for lock pieces and silver bullet artifacts. Previously, the deck would have some difficulty with creatures like Noble Hierarch attacking under an Ensnaring Bridge, but the construct tokens have proven very useful in solving this issue. Recommend 4.
Profane Tutor - This is a more recent development in decklists. One of the key aspects of Lantern Control is that specific cards are often required depending on the situation and what the opponent is playing. Profane Tutor performs exactly this for the deck. The two-turn wait for it to come off of Suspend is often negligible, as we often run a great amount of discard and other disruption that typically buys the pilot the time required for Profane Tutor to resolve.
Ancient Stirrings - Digs for prison pieces, neutralizers, or even lands.
Whir of Invention - An excellent card for digging for the exact artifact required in a given situation, at instant speed. It does require a retooling of the manabase, and forsaking some number of utility lands that don't produce blue mana. There seem to be two variants on Lantern Control - One in which the manabase is restructured to use Whir of Invention and the more traditional GBx build. If you decide to build the Whir version, it is highly suggested to run 4.
Mishra's Bauble - As mentioned earlier, this card allows for digging through the deck for required pieces of the lock. It allows us to psuedo-simulate running a 56 card deck. It can also be combined with a Codex Shredder, Ghoulcaller's Bell, or Pyxis of Pandemonium in order to dig further, faster. In Whir builds, it can be used to "pay" for the Improvise cost of Whir of Invention, acting as a Mox Opal. Recommend 2-4.
Glint-Nest Crane - An additional option. Works as a blocker. Cranes even act as an additional win condition, being able to attack under a Bridge during our turn before we play the card we draw. Optional.
Inventors’ Fair - In addition to acting as a maindeck Sun Droplet, this card provides the deck with the ability to search up a final locking piece to secure the win. It is often difficult to find room in the deck for Fair alongside Urza’s Saga, but some pilots still prefer to have a copy.
Noxious Revival - Reclaims a discarded/destroyed/self-mill card at instant speed. May also be used to put a dead card back on top of an opponent's library in a pinch. More often used in budget lists. Fills in extra spots as necessary.
Inquisition of Kozilek - Grabs most cards that we care about in the early game. Slows down an opponent’s deck and provides information on what cards are safe for the opponent to draw and what cards we need to worry about. Recommend 2-4, depending on the expected metagame.
Duress - This often-overlooked discard spell works very well in removing cards that are often most problematic to the deck. Where Inquisition of Kozilek cannot pick a Leyline Binding, Karn, the Great Creator, The One Ring, or a Force of Vigor from an opponent’s hand, Duress does this, but without the life loss of Thoughtseize. Recommend 2-4, depending on the expected metagame.
Thoughtseize - Can get anything (other than lands) that Inquisition of Kozilek cannot. Does cost two life, but usually is negligible. Recommend 4.
Collective Brutality - Provides the most options among the discard spells, at the cost of an additional mana. Especially useful in matchups that rely on small creatures or burn spells. Slightly more versatile than Inquisition of Kozilek and Thoughtseize because it can be used to take out worrisome creatures that make it to the battlefield before we have a chance to draw a discard spell.
A well-designed manabase will be heavily reliant on the build. Builds that are designed to use Whir of Invention will require minimal numbers of lands that produce colorless, whereas builds that are designed to use Profane Tutor will likely want to prioritize the ability to cast an early discard spell. With that in mind, most Whir builds consist of fastlands that produce blue mana combined with some number of Spire of Industry and Glimmervoid. Most Profane Tutor builds consist of fastlands that produce black, fetchlands, basic lands, and/or pathways. Profane Tutor builds are often able to make room for lands like The Mycosynth Gardens. Regardless, it is likely a very good idea to utilize the tools at MTG On Curve to ensure that the pilot is better able to have the mana necessary to cast their spells when they need to.
Spire of Industry - Excellent option for producing the colors needed. Is usually preferred over Glimmervoid since it does not sacrifice itself in case the opponent has removal for our artifacts (which would often lead to a blowout). The painlands were once used to supplement the fastlands, but this card has essentially made the painlands nearly obsolete. Recommend 4.
Glimmervoid - Has been very effective for the deck over time, but carries the increased risk of a blowout, as pointed out above. Glimmervoid is often used to supplement Spire of Industry for the extra colored mana stabilization.
Fastlands - Another favorite, provides the colored mana on the turns that are most important for this deck. The specific fastland that is wanted largely depends on whether the pilot is aiming for the traditional GBx build or the Whir build.
Pathways - These lands have assisted builds that absolutely want to play early spells (like discard spells) that require colored mana without causing the pilot too much self-inflicted damage.
The Mycosynth Gardens - An excellent option for the deck, in that it can become additional copies of Ensnaring Bridge at instant speed (in response to some removal is great), but also serves to solidify the lock by acting as additional mill rocks if we need it. It should be noted that it cannot effectively copy a Pithing Needle, as it will simply become a copy of the Needle but with no card named.
Academy Ruins - A superb utility land for recurring destroyed, discarded, sacrificed, or self-milled artifacts.
Alternate win conditions are typically not necessary, so long as the pilot plays at a good pace and is familiar enough with the deck that they can make decisions in a reasonable amount of time. However, some pilots choose to include some alternate win conditions in their 75.
Ghirapur AEther Grid - Higher initial mana cost than Pyrite Spellbomb, but cheaper in the long run per point of damage. Can also provide a faster clock and can take out more creatures per turn.
Pyrite Spellbomb - Like Galvanic Blast, but can be nabbed with Ancient Stirrings. Costs less to set up the recurring engine, but deals less damage than Blast, too.
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas - One of the more popular choices for an alternate win condition. He helps to dig for prison and neutralizing pieces and allows for a win via creature damage or his ultimate.
Cursed Totem - An excellent card for combating decks like Hardened Scales, Yawgmoth, and some Goblin combo decks. It’s also useful for shutting down Dauthi Voidwalkers and the Reflection of Kiki-Jiki side of Fable of the Mirror-Breaker.
Welding Jar - A possible option to defend our prison pieces and Ensnaring Bridges against artifact removal. Has been less useful since the printing of cards like Prismatic Ending, Leyline Binding, Haywire Mite, and Tear Asunder.
Grafdigger's Cage - Extremely useful against traditional Dredge decks, Yawgmoth decks, and other similar decks.
Leyline of Sanctity - Is great against Burn and discard-heavy decks. There is the downside that it loses a lot of usefulness if it isn't in our opener, and we would need 3-4 in order to make that happen. The mana cost could cause it to clog our hands.
The Underworld Cookbook - This card greatly helps turn the Burn matchup around. It allows us to survive a resolved Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, and lets us dump our hand to ensure that creatures cannot attack us when we have an Ensnaring Bridge in play.
Elixir of Immortality - Another card that’s useful in the Burn matchup, but is also very useful against the Mill matchup.
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn - Useful in the Mill matchup, with some interesting strategy involved. If the Lantern list contains sufficient discard spells and a way to consistently assemble the lock, the pilot may focus their plan on not allowing the opponent access to exile effects. When successfully accomplished, the Mill opponent will simply be unable to win so long as the Lantern pilot ensures that they do not draw Emrakul. If they do draw Emrakul for some reason, they can discard it to The Underworld Cookbook, Thoughtseize targeting themselves, or building to having eight cards in hand and discarding Emrakul.
Soul-Guide Lantern/Stone of Erech/Nihil Spellbomb - These each combat various graveyard strategies, and are their relative usefulness is often dependant on the specific situation. It should be noted that Stone of Erech has the unique ability to shut down some mechanics, like Modular, where the others do not.
Damping Sphere - Useful against the big-mana matchups, like Mono-Green Tron, Amulet Titan, and Coffers, while also being useful against combo matchups like Twiddle-Storm, Gifts Storm, and Underworld Breach.
NecromentiaThe Stone Brain - Useful against decks that heavily rely on some specific card or combination of cards.
I've been tracking games for quite some time on this spreadsheet. There you can view how the deck performs against various other decks in the metagame, along with how specific cards perform when they are in the opening hand. This provides information on mulligan decisions. There is quite a bit of data to go through, so feel free to take a look! If you’re curious, you can also view the previous spreadsheet that was part of the original development of the deck.
My own Youtube channel is devoted almost solely to Lantern, and can be found here.
Another Youtube video is Lantern Insights.
Some older content can be found below, if you’re interested in the early days of the deck:
Zac Elsik's deck tech from GP Charlotte can be seen here.
Joao De Souza's (strangemolars) Youtube channel and here (Crexalbo's Youtube channel).
There are a few basic rules for playing this deck that are typically true. They may not always be true, but it is up to the pilot to figure out when they apply and when they do not.
- The one gameplay nuance that is important at all times is to play at a quick pace. Some good examples of this are videos on Zac Elsik. Once the prison is set, he knows what cards are on top, and knows exactly how he's going to tap his mana to play those cards (unless it's a land) during his next turn. In paper Magic, opponents will often "tank" over plays that are irrelevant to the boardstate, looking for a way to break out of the prison. There are some opponents who will purposefully take a while to do this, hoping to push the game into a draw, and then blame the Lantern pilot. In either case, we do not want this. Quick, and precise, play requires an in-depth knowledge of an opponent's deck and what outs he or she may have. If they do not have an out, then play as normal, but at a quick pace.
- If you have a mill rock available with a Mishra’s Bauble, and don’t have a Lantern of Insight in play,, it is almost always more correct to target yourself with the Bauble. A good way to appreciate why this is true is to consider the likelihood of an opponent having a card they want on top of their library as compared to the likelihood of us having a card that we don’t want or need on top of our own library. The latter is much more likely. Therefore, it’s better to use the Bauble on ourselves, in order to dig to the card(s) we need to solidify the lock.
- It is usually correct to play a Lantern of Insight if you know it will not get countered or discarded by an opponent before playing a Codex Shredder or Ghoulcaller's Bell. There are fewer Lantern effects in the deck than there are mill rocks, so it's less painful to have a mill rock countered or discarded, as you are more likely to draw another one.
-A good Lantern pilot is intimately familiar with the metagame. This is important so that the pilot knows the best cards to name with Pithing Needle, what cards the opponent is reliant on in order for their deck to properly function, and the best cards to use Surgical Extraction on.
- You typically want to always mill at the end of the opponent's turn. This allows the opponent less interaction with the top of their library, as they will not be able to use effects to set up their top card and then use sorcery speed spells to access the top card.
- This is a math-intensive deck. It is important to be able to count how many turns it will take to mill out an opponent and compare that with whether an opponent can deal the necessary damage to win the game before that time. When calculating this, remember to calculate the likelihood of drawing more mill rocks in the process, as doing so increases the speed of this deck.
- Do not forget to use Academy Ruins at the end of an opponent's turn.
- Be aware of all outs an opponent may have in play or in their deck. A pilot must be able to correctly count them.
- When using Surgical Extraction, count the number of outs an opponent has in his or her deck, and what outs those are. You are getting precious information from this, and this information should be used when calculating when you should or should not mill. Sometimes it is safer to just let the opponent keep a dead card on top rather than mill another three cards. Also, do not forget that Surgical Extraction can be used as instant speed discard, can shuffle away a threat that is on top, and can provide information on what cards the opponent has in hand. For example, if there is a The One Ring on top of an opponent's library and another copy in their graveyard, let the opponent draw it and then use Surgical Extraction during their draw step. This not only removes the threat, but blanks their draw for the turn. We can also hold Extraction until the opponent’s draw step when we know they have a dead card on top. They will draw the dead card, and we still get to exile the targets, rather than exiling targets and risking reshuffling an opponent’s deck so that a threat is on top.
- Do not forget the second ability of Lantern of Insight. If you think the opponent has sided in Ancient Grudges, drawing extra Lanterns is extremely beneficial. These extra Lanterns will allow you to shuffle away an Ancient Grudge, giving you more time to prepare for it by laying duplicate copies of cards.
- Likewise, do not forget about the second ability of Codex Shredder. This may allow the pilot to recur cards at instant speed, like Surgical Extraction.
- Concerning Eldrazi effects that let an opponent shuffle their graveyard back into their library, remember that you do not necessarily have to mill them. Often times it is just fine to let the opponent draw them, and then they have to just hold cards in order to discard the Eldrazi and get the shuffle effect. This buys us time to mill them out, go for an alternate wincon plan, or prepare for Surgical Extraction tactics. For example, it is entirely possible to use a constant recurring of Codex Shredder to use Surgical Extraction every turn to extract cards that the opponent may be holding in their hand while they work to build up cards to discard the Eldrazi. This delays their ability to discard it, while "milling" them.
- Surgical Extraction may also be used to extract cards out of our own hand. For example, there was an instance at GP Charlotte 2015 in which one of the Lantern players had the prison set with Ensnaring Bridge in play, but had Ghost Quarter and Glimmervoid in hand and was about to draw a Surgical Extraction. The opponent was going to be able to swing with lethal with 1-power creatures. The pilot had a Glimmervoid in play, and the play that wins the game was to draw the Extraction, play Ghost Quarter, tap Glimmervoid for a black, destroy his own Glimmervoid with Ghost Quarter, then use the black mana to use Surgical Extraction on the Glimmervoid and exile the Glimmervoid in his hand. Plays like these are extremely complicated, and aren't always the easiest to see, but are important for winning what look to be unwinnable games.
- Cards that draw at sorcery speed are typically alright for the opponent to draw. For example, I have seen many, many times where a player will mill a Serum Visions on their own turn. This is incorrect. Serum Visions in this instance does nothing but force the opponent to pay a blue mana to draw another card. The scry effect does next to nothing for them when we have the prison set: If they keep cards on top, we can mill them, and if they put cards to the bottom in order to try to dig to an answer, then we can still mill those answers. If, after they’ve drawn the Visions, they have a threat on top, we simply mill in response to the Visions resolving. At best, the opponent may try to hold many copies of Serum Visions and other sorcery speed cantrips in order to chain them, but that also allows us more time to get to more mill effects, which in turn directly negates their gameplan. In addition, their use of these cards increases our clock, as they are "milling" themselves yet another card for each of these used.
- When resolving an Ancient Stirrings or Glint-Nest Crane, it can matter what order the cards are put on the bottom of your library. This is especially so for decks that run no other shuffle effects than Lantern of Insight. Ancient Stirrings and Glint-Nest Crane essentially lets the pilot stack his or her deck! Note that this isn't quite as effective in Whir builds or builds that include Urza’s Saga (which you absolutely should if you can!) due to the required shuffle afterwards.
- When we have the choice between an early Inquisition of Kozilek or an early Duress or Thoughtseize, it is almost always correct to play the IoK first. The limit on the converted mana cost that IoK can get makes this true, along with the fact that IoK can take out creatures that might put us on a clock while we try to land a Bridge.
- It's important to play the lands in the correct order. It is usually correct to play Urza’s Saga as our second land drop, not our first. This way we will be more likely to have the mana for Ensnaring Bridge when Urza’s Saga goes away (if we don’t already have the other two lands available), and we often want to get a construct token in cases where we don’t have Ensnaring Bridge.
- If we know that the opponent will have no relevant plays in the first two or three turns, we can wait to pull the trigger on playing an IoK, Thoughtseize, or Duress. With this in mind, it's also often a good idea to hold a Thoughtseize or Duress until just before we want to force through a card that's going to cripple the opponent's deck (Ensnaring Bridge, Pithing Needle, etc.).
- It's usually correct to play Spellskite or Welding Jar before Bridge, when we have that choice. We may take a little more damage, but Spellskite will help ensure that Bridge stays out, allowing us to prevent taking lethal damage. Playing the Welding Jar first ensures that the opponent cannot destroy the Bridge with before Welding Jar can be used.
- If we have a Lantern out and an Ancient Stirrings, Whir of Invention, or Glint-Nest Crane in hand and a card that we want on top (another Ancient Stirrings or Crane, a discard spell to force a card through, an Ensnaring Bridge, etc.), it's often better to just hold the Stirrings/Whir/Crane and draw that card rather than pull the trigger immediately. The exception is if we absolutely need an answer (Bridge, Pithing Needle, etc.) immediately and we have the mana to play that answer if we grab it.
- Note that Urza’s Saga and Whir of Invention puts the artifact directly into play. What this means is that if an opponent has an activated ability available that Pithing Needle should stop, and they don't activate it before the third Urza’s Saga trigger or Whir resolves, we can use them to put Needle directly into play. The opponent will then not be able to use the ability at all. They must respond to the trigger or to Whir if they want to use the effect. If they do respond, then this gives us the option to grab something other than Needle.
- If we have a Stirrings/Crane in hand and the mana to play it, but not the mana to play the card we are looking to Stirrings/Crane for, then it's sometimes better to hold off on playing the spell. Otherwise, we risk getting our card discarded and/or giving the opponent information.
- If we are in serious trouble and need to Stirrings/Crane, and we have the Lantern combo out, we can use our mill rocks to dig further down before playing the spell, giving us more depth to them.
- If we plan on playing a Surgical Extraction and no Lantern out, it's usually correct to wait until the opponent's draw phase to use it. This gives us more information, and provides the slight chance that Extraction also acts as a discard spell. The exception is in the case that the opponent is playing with lots of instants, or has some means of removing the Extraction target at instant speed at the cost of mana (Endurance). In those cases, it's often best to play the Extraction when the opponent doesn't have the mana to respond.
- Allow the opponent to make mistakes when the situation provides it. For example, another exception to the point above about Surgical Extraction, it's sometimes better to hold an Extraction and let the opponent move to declare attackers when we have a Bridge out. Then, we can instant-speed Extraction, reducing the number of cards in our hand. This may often throw off their plans and their calculations when they've "figured out" what they're going to attack with and for how much.
In addition to these, there are some nuances that are important to know that is specific to a matchup. The greatest example of this is probably best understood when analyzing the Burn matchup.
The reason why Burn was a tough matchup is because, in that matchup, they had inevitability. Even if we got the lock, they could often just draw enough burn that slipped through to deal lethal, and because the amount of burn necessary to finish us off in their deck was higher than the amount of mill effects we had, they had inevitability.
Quite a few people have suggested trying out miracle cards and Counterbalance. Zerodown tested Terminus (shown in his list in the first few pages). It appears that he was not impressed with the results. If you would like to test further, please do, and then presenting the results of that testing to the thread would be great. The general opinion, if I'm not mistaken, is that it isn't worth it.
Another common suggestion is Artificer's Intuition. Let's think about it real quick. To get an artifact, we must first pay 1U, and then U for the ability. We must also discard an artifact. How many artifacts do we run that are dead enough that they're worth discarding to go search for another artifact? A second Mox Opal? And what artifact would we be searching for? A Lantern? Pyrite Spellbomb? One of the eight mill rocks? So, we are paying the same amount for this card to do the same effect as Trinket Mage (but paying the 1UU instead of 2U, and discarding a card instead of gaining a 2/2 body). A duplicate Intuition is absolutely dead, whereas a second Trinket Mage can fetch yet another card, plus provide another body.
Lastly, a note on "win-more" cards. There are plenty of cards and combos in existence that seem overpowered when added to this deck. For example, Bloodchief Ascension. An active Ascension is superb in a deck like this. The problem arises when we consider what must occur to ensure that the Ascension is active, rather than paying B for a card that will do nothing for us. To get Ascension active, we must deal at least six damage over the course of three turns. That is a tall order for a deck that typically only runs one or two Pyrite Spellbombs. When we plan it all out, it would take four mana sources, one of them providing U and one providing R, an Academy Ruins, a Pyrite Spellbomb, the Bloodchief Ascension, and three turns. Then, it requires that the opponent isn't killing us in the meantime, so that means that we would also require that the prison be constructed, and most likely an Ensnaring Bridge in play as well. That's seven cards, not including prison pieces and an Ensnaring Bridge, and three turns used in order to enable yet another win condition to the deck. If the prison is set up with an Ensnaring Bridge, and we have those mana sources and Ruins in play and access to a Pyrite Spellbomb, we could just as easily just continue on the tried and proven main win condition, without risking adding a weakness of a what would usually be a dead card to the construction of the deck. That precious card slot would be much better served by a card that contributes to ensuring that the main engine of the deck is assembled and running smoothly.
http://modernnexus.com/primers-lantern-control/
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Match 1: Burn, 2-0 Chalice on one both games worked great for me. Game one I play turn one tron land, turn two Island (Condescend a burn spell), turn three tron land, turn four tron assembled (cast Platinum Angel), turn five cast Wurmcoil and Chalice on one. Game two I play turn one Map, turn two Chalice, hold up counters for a couple of turns, assemble Tron on turn five I think (cast Solemn Simulacrum and Filigree Familiar), and win easily from there.
-3 Remand
+3 Filigree Familiar
Played an extra game since the match was over so quick, they wanted to try their Elves deck against me. Won that, too. Again, Chalice on one, then Spatial Contortion'd his guys, got firm control of the game with Ballista and he conceded.
Match 2: Mono Green Tron, 2-0 Game one is insane. I am able to bluff counters when he assembles Tron on the play, Field of Ruin his Tower to keep him off tron for another turn, but then start to stall out as he casts Karn and starts exiling my lands and cards in hand, using Relic to cantrip through his deck and wiping my Mindslaver with O-Stone. Gets to a point where opp has Tron assembled (two Towers), Karn at 9 loyalty (Power Plant, Mine, Island, and something else under it), O-Stone in play. I have Power Plant, Mine, Academy Ruins, and three Island in play, Remand, O-Stone, Ugin in hand. Opp -3 Karn to take my Ruins, I use it to put Slaver back on top in response. I figure my only path to winning here is to Ruins the Slaver back, hope opp casts something so I can Remand and draw it, then hope to topdeck Tower to Slaver the opp and wipe his board, etc. He casts Ugin (sac's Sanctum to search for Ulamog), I Remand and draw Slaver. They pass turn. I topdeck Tower, Slaver opp. Cast his Ulamog, exile his Towers, -3 Karn to exile his Ulamog, have him pass turn. I untap, cast and blow O-Stone. Opp is now on 5 lands with Karn, Wurmcoil, Ugin in hand. I proceed to win easily from here.
Game two I turn one Map (gets Nature's Claim'd), turn two Chalice on one, turn three hold up counters for O-Stone, turn four Spreading Seas a Tron land. From here I counter every spell that Chalice doesn't hit, draw more Seas (never have to cast them), until I build up six mana and Gearhulk on his turn (flashing back Anticipate, digging for another counter), and win easily with beats and a hand full of blue spells.
-2 Spatial Contortion
-1 Solemn Simulacrum
-3 Repeal
+3 Spreading Seas
+3 Negate
Round Three: UR Phoenix 2-0 Both games I get Chalice on one. Game one, after Chalice, I Repeal his Thing in the Ice, counter every other threat, and Mindslaver lock him. Game two, get Grafdigger's Cage, Chalice on one. He resolves a Blood Moon, which cuts us both to one blue mana. He tries to go for Snapcaster beats, but I build up mana to cast Silent Arbiter and hold up counter magic. He gets two Phoenix into play and starts to beat me for three damage a turn. I eventually Repeal his Moon, cast Platinum Angel with counter backup. I start wiping his Phoenix' with Ballista, swing in with Angel, eventually kill him with Angel beats and Ballista pings.
-3 Remand
-2 Spatial Contortion
+3 Silent Arbiter
+1 Grafdigger's Cage
+1 Surgical Extraction
Drew round four with my Humans opponent, my son was hungry and tired of playing by this point. Anyways, very happy with the list right now. I now have 1,223 games of data on the spreadsheet, and used the spreadsheet to build and tweak my list.
// 9 Artifact
4 Expedition Map
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Oblivion Stone
1 Mindslaver
// 5 Creature
1 Torrential Gearhulk
1 Walking Ballista
1 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Platinum Angel
1 Wurmcoil Engine
// 20 Instant
4 Condescend
3 Remand
3 Supreme Will
3 Thirst for Knowledge
3 Repeal
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Anticipate
1 Commit // Memory
// 24 Land
4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
7 Island
1 Academy Ruins
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Field of Ruin
1 Tolaria West
1 Gemstone Caverns
// 1 Planeswalker
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Filigree Familiar
3 Silent Arbiter
3 Enchantment
3 Spreading Seas
3 Negate
1 Spatial Contortion
1 Surgical Extraction
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Concerning Wilderness Reclamation: Part of the core of the deck, in my opinion. Yes, you could try building a deck without it, but it's this card that allows for Mystical Teachings to be good, along with Blue Sun's Zenith, makes Creeping Tar Pit better, etc. Sure, the turn we cast Reclamation it doesn't normally do a whole lot, but it allows us to keep up counter mana that same turn and then doubles out mana every turn after that. I don't want or need four copies, because I want to see at least one but definitely don't get value out of two if I don't get a payoff spell (so it has diminishing returns if we don't have some use for all that mana).
Concerning Mystical Teachings: This card isn't great without Reclamation, but is still good, allowing us to fetch out whatever card we need to get to the point where we turn the corner. I've found that if I resolve a Reclamation and a Teachings, a win is probably inevitable. As with Reclamation, there are diminishing returns with this card. I want to see at one, but there are diminishing returns with this card if we haven't stabilized the board with the first one or the other cards we've drawn.
Opt: I truly feel that three Opt is incorrect. This card is necessary for us to dig to hit our land drops, removal, counters, etc. Drawing a random card doesn't get us there nearly as well. I've gone up to four copies, and haven't regretted it.
Fatal Push: The weakness I've found with this deck is how it struggles against aggressive decks. Why not shore up this weakness with one of the best removal spells in our colors? Adding a third Push allows us to dig to one quickly when we need it, but not get stuck with too many copies in matchups where we don't. Snapcaster allows us to get double-use out of these, so if we need them, we actually have six copies.
Devour Flesh: Isn't nearly as good as Push in most matchups, and is really a "magical-christmasland" card in the Grixis Shadow matchup. Sure, it's useful against Bogles, too, but tapping down their team with Cryptic/Snap/Cryptic is often enough to turn the corner versus them, and they can play around it easily with fetching for Dryad Arbor.
Now, for cards that I've been personally testing:
Supreme Will: I've tested with some number of these, and currently run one. This card has proven useful every single time. It allows me to have a decent counter in the early-to-midgame, but also have dig for the late game. Unlike Remand, it's more of a hard-counter, and unlike Cryptic, it costs less and isn't as demanding on the manabase. I'm still running a full playset of both Remand and Cryptic, and just using this one-of as a supplemental card.
Whispers of the Muse: I'm running one of these instead of Hieroglyphic Illumination. I was on the fence about this, and just testing it, until I got into situations mentioned in previous posts by others, where we end up having tons of mana and nothing to do with it all. With Hiero, we draw two cards at best and hope they're good. With Whispers, we just keep drawing and drawing. I'm very impressed with how well this card's performed for me.
Torrential Gearhulk: I've gone back and forth on this card, and I'm now back with running one main. In numerous games I've found that this card increases our clock greatly. Trying to rely off of Snapcaster and Tar Pit beats isn't always great, with how small and easily removed they are with Bolt (which is currently the most common removal spell in the format) or Field of Ruin (which is apparently everywhere). It usually takes three hits with this card and the opponent is just dead, making it so we don't need to worry about chaining too many turns or going infinite to win. It also blocks like a pro, takes out most planeswalkers in one swing, and can even shuffle a Blue Sun's Zenith back into our deck if the Zenith was countered or discarded earlier on.
I've made some changes to my sideboard and manabase as well, but need to cut this short to go do stuffs. But with all this said, my current list is below. I've been collecting gameplay data on the deck, and still want a few hundred more games of data to make the data more reliable, but the spreadsheet can be found here for anyone interested in how it's looking so far.
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Torrential Gearhulk
// 3 Enchantment
3 Wilderness Reclamation
// 29 Instant
3 Fatal Push
4 Opt
4 Growth Spiral
4 Remand
1 Blue Sun's Zenith
1 Pulse of Murasa
4 Cryptic Command
3 Mystical Teachings
1 Nexus of Fate
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Supreme Will
1 Whispers of the Muse
2 Breeding Pool
2 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Drowned Catacomb
1 Field of Ruin
1 Flooded Grove
1 Forest
2 Hinterland Harbor
4 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave
1 Nimble Obstructionist
1 Fatal Push
2 Life Goes On
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Crypt Incursion
1 Consume the Meek
1 Shadow of Doubt
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Pulse of Murasa
2 Negate
1 Dispel
1 Echoing Truth
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EDIT: I'm not saying it's not safe, I just want to see an argument that is based on more than conjecture from random people in forums and reddit Even conjecture from pros aren't reliable. So far, the best and honest argument that I've seen is that people want cards unbanned because they want to play with them. To state a card is okay to be unbanned, even if we agree, without lots of hard evidence or data, is just random internet conjecture.
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This seems to imply that 8rack really just isn't a very good deck. I figured that no one would really care to hear that 8rack simply is not a very good deck, as shown via the data, so thought it best that I didn't post a follow up at all if all I was going to do was tell people something that they might not want to hear. Maybe a card will be printed in the future that could help the deck, but out of all of the decks that I've used the data approach on, this one stands out to me as the one where the data seems clear on the nature of the deck itself.
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So, breaking down the data, this is what's going on (please forgive me if you have already figured some of this out, I don't know what parts you don't know, and I'd rather be thorough in the explanation):
Opening Hand Data tab: This is where all of the data from the gameplay videos is entered. I enter in if it's preboard or postboard, what deck the opponent is playing, if the Utron pilot is on the play or draw, if the game is won or lost, if the match is won or lost, who the pilot was, and how many of each card are in the opening hand. The columns on the far right automatically calculate various things, like how many cards are in the opening hand, how many lands are in the opening hand, if there is a blue source in the opening hand, if the hand contains natural tron, if the hand contains two of the three tron lands, etc.
The data in the Opening Hand Data tab is used to create pivot tables that show win rates with various numbers of each card in the opening hand, or comparing statistics based on the columns on the far right (natural tron, etc.).
Weighted Data Trends tab:
Column A has each card name, referenced from the associated pivot table for that card.
Column B shows the number of wins with no copies of the associated card in the opening hand.
Column C shows the number of games with no copies of the associated card in the opening hand.
Column D calculates that win rate, using the numbers from columns B and C.
Column E shows the number of wins with one copy of the associated card in the opening hand.
Column F shows the number of games with one copy of the associated card in the opening hand.
Column G calculates that win rate using the numbers from columns E and F.
Column H finds the difference in win rates between having one copy (column G) and zero copies (column D).
Column I is used to weigh the data. There will be different numbers of games to be compared for each card, since the cards are randomized in the deck. The issue before weighing the data was that something may have a great increase or decrease in win rates when the card is in the opener, but the sample size is too small to be reliable. Thus, I use a function in column I to weigh the data according to sample size. The way the function works is that I divide the number of games the card was in the opener by the total number of games. The more games that the card was in the opener, the larger this fraction will be, and the greater the weight is that will be applied to column G.
Column J is the product of the difference in win rates from zero to one (column H) and the weight (column I).
I also wanted to be aware of diminishing returns, though. Sometimes a card will be great in the opener, but having multiples is not so great for us. So the block of columns K through O do the same steps for the difference between one and two copies, the blocks of columns P through T do the same steps for the difference between two and three copies, and so on.
Columns AE and AF are used to find the overall weighted data trends with diminishing returns considered. If there is no data on having multiples of a card, then column AF will display "No Data". If the overall diminishing returns is negative, column AF will display "Negative". If the overall diminishing returns is positive, the a value (the product of column J and column AE) will be displayed. The function isn't perfect, but it's what I've been using for now.
After I've entered the gameplay data into the Opening Hand Data tab, I update the Weighted Data Trends tab to see if there is new data for having multiples of a card and then sort the rows by columns AF, AE, and J, in that order. Those columns are also color-coded to help read the cards that correlate with wins better or worse.
Additional Data Points tab: Some decks have specific data points that make it unique from others. For example, with this deck we might want to compare hands that have natural tron to hands that do not. Or, we might want to compare win rates of being on the draw naturally versus being on the draw with Gemstone Caverns in hand (putting us "on the play", in a sense). It gives us win rates for the different numbers of lands in the opener, number of cards in the opener (mulligan trends), win rates if we have a blue source in our opener, etc. There's plenty more data points we can look at, but that's where I ask for suggestions. What specific combinations of cards do people want to see? I can set up the spreadsheet to look at exactly that, usually.
As for using the spreadsheet for deckbuilding and tweaking, I need to reiterate what I've posted before (and on reddit).
So, with the idea that our ability to maintain some control over the first few turns of the game is (or just survive that long) is going to be crucial to winning the game, I focus on the opening hand. It is very important to pay attention to more than just columns AF, AE, and J! For example, it may look like Island is the "worst card correlating with win percentages in the deck". But this does not take into account the context! What kind of opening hands would an experienced Utron pilot keep that did not have an Island in the opening hand? Well, a hand with natural tron and a Wurmcoil is a great example. That's quite a good opening hand. If we actually look at the win rates of opening hands with an Island, we'll see that the win rate is 66.46% (315/474 games). That's still quite an impressive win rate. It just happens to be lower than the win rate of hands that are kept without one Island. Paying careful attention to each number is very important here, otherwise we could easily be misguided or misinterpret the numbers, as you mention above.
What I've been doing to use this data to tweak my list is to pay attention to the cards that correlate the best with increased win percentages, but also pay attention to the diminishing returns. Here are some examples:
Supreme Will: This card seems to correlating quite well with increased wins, but the diminishing returns shows a sharp decline. The sample size on the diminishing returns is also quite small, though. Thus, for now, I know that I would love to have one in the opening hand, but I'm not ready to risk increasing the chance of having two. Therefore, I run three in my main.
Chalice of the Void: Nearly the exact same scenario as Supreme Will, above. I run three of these as well.
Thirst for Knowledge: Yes, it's pretty much ubiquitous that we run a full playset of this card. For me, though, it's comforting to see the numbers support this decision. I don't want to simply believe something is true because it's popular and everyone agrees that it's true, I want to know what is true.
Remand: See Supreme Will and Chalice of the Void explanations Same scenario, I run three.
Now, I've skipped over Condescend and Anticipate. It appears that it might be better if we cut a Condescend for the same reason that I only run three Will, Chalice, and Remand. I just haven't personally pulled the trigger on that yet. I'm inclined to cut the fourth Condescend for an Anticipate, which scores great. These are my flex numbers for now.
The wincons (Mindslaver, Wurmcoil Engine, Ugin, etc.) are obviously not the best to have in the opener. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that having a 6+ drop in the opener isn't going to get us far in the first few turns without somehow assembling a fast tron. This does not mean we cut these cards, it just means that we need to be aware of how these cards are going to affect our chances at winning when they're in the opening hand. Most of that's relatively common sense, though.
I also use the data to figure out what the best performing sideboard cards are. For example, Summary Dismissal seems to perform very well, as does Spreading Seas, Negate, Silent Arbiter, and Filigree Familiar. Each of these cards are great at multiple matchups (Silent Arbiter being amazing in one of our worst matchups, Merfolk!).
So that's the spreadsheet, explained, and how I prefer to use the data. When combined with pierakor's MORT data (which gives better data on which wincons and singletons work the best, but isn't so good at finding correlating wins for cards that are run in multiples), we can use actual empirical data to tweak and build the deck.
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