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  • posted a message on 8Rack
    Welp, got some more work done, more games entered, and built a preliminary list off of the data so far. Played a quick match online and it felt very smooth. I wish I could find room for that Experimental Frenzy, but figure that for now I'll focus on just tuning a stock list and then branching out from there maybe.

    Anyways, here are the videos (super-quick rundown of the build and the match I played). I'll try to get a few more in as well, but kind of spreading myself thin between work, family, Skred, and this.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on 8Rack
    Hey everyone. So, as I mentioned before, Experimental Frenzy seems to test very well, but the deck still had the same problems that I remember when I didn't resolve a Frenzy, in that sometimes the deck will just lose to itself as the opponents' topdecks will sometimes just help them turn the corner. I decided to put in some work to delve a little deeper into how we can tweak the deck.

    The usual method that I prefer is to use a data-based approach. I've done this with a few decks in the past now (Lantern, Blue Tron, Taxes, and Skred) to very good results. I started doing the same with this deck, and so far I've entered 75 games of data into a spreadsheet.

    My method is based on the idea that Modern is approximately a turn-four format. This isn't to say that the games are over on turn four, but that they are often decided by turn four. If one deck cannot maintain sufficient control over the course of the first four turns, then the opponent will be allowed to do so, and that will often lead to an overwhelming advantage. Thus, each player will see somewhere around 10 to 12 cards, depending on mulligans, to attempt to gain control over the direction of the game in those first four turns. This means that the opening hand, usually around seven or six cards, will account for approximately 60% to 70% of the resources that will be available to accomplish this task.

    The spreadsheets that I use to take a look at how each card performs specifically compares win rates when there are specific numbers of each card in the deck in the opening hand. It then compares the win rates, and accounts for sample size by weighing these changes in win rates. The spreadsheet also accounts for diminishing returns on cards, so in some cases it's good to have a card in the opener, but having multiples might decrease correlating win percentages. I've also had it look at other data points with other decks, and have started to do the same with 8rack.

    Anyways, here is my work so far. The data set is still not nearly as large as I'd like, but it's getting there. With the data set available so far, there are some interesting things to note:

    Smallpox is, by far, the top performing card in the deck, followed by Inquisition of Kozilek, Thoughtseize, and Liliana of the Veil, in that order. Mutavault is the next significant performer. These are all accounting for diminishing returns. The Mutavault data set is going to require some more, though, as it's somewhat skewed by the oddity of having a decreased win correlation when there is one in hand, but increased with multiples.
    Ensnaring Bridge and Collective Brutality are the top performers for cards that currently have no diminishing returns data (no games with multiples in hand yet).
    The Rack seriously underperforms, particularly compared to Shrieking Affliction. This seems to imply that Affliction is just more reliable as a win condition than The Rack, even though The Rack can deal damage sooner.

    As I mentioned, I do think that we're going to need some more data if we really want to get closer to truthful and accurate numbers. I'm going to continue working on that, skimming videos on Youtube for the data. If anyone has any suggestions for additional data points to look at (combinations of certain cards and correlating win percentages with those combinations, etc.), feel free to let me know and I'll get it included. I'm hoping this could help get the deck performing better than it has been.



    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on [Primer] MonoU Tron - "The well-oiled machine"
    Please, yes! I'm always looking for more data for the spreadsheet. I prefer Youtube, as it's easier to skim for data because my time for watching is limited. It's also easiest when each match is a different video, like I have on my Youtube channel. But yeah, that would be awesome!
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on [Primer] MonoU Tron - "The well-oiled machine"
    @SwissRolls, Cockatrice is a pretty good option. I use this skin when playing, makes it look much more professional as well.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on Skred Red
    Went to the LGS last night, got some good games in. Also played Werewolf, which was a blast, but that's off-topic :p

    Played against Humans and Abzan Traverse. Not a tournament or anything, just testing with friends. Went 2-1 against Humans, 2-1 against Abzan Traverse.

    Humans:
    Game one, my opp seems to have a slow start on the play. My opp lands a Thalia into Reflector Mage into Lieutenant. I see that my opp has no basics, and I have a choice of landing either a Blood Moon or Anger of the Gods. The Anger won't kill the Mage, but it could kill the other two, while Moon could shut my opp off of any follow up plays and then sweep with Anger. I go for the Moon first, looking to just sweep up with Anger and then land the Stormbreath. Turns out my opp was sandbagging the Plains in his hand, follows up with another Leiutenant and gets me way too far down to come back.

    Sideboard: -4 Relic of Progenitus, +2 Ratchet Bomb, +2 Abrade

    Game two has me killing creature after creature, then letting a couple stick to sweep with Anger, follow up with Stormbreath and then Koth. Ult Koth, get the concession.

    Game three opp my opp casts an Aether Vial, which I Abrade, into a Hierarch, which I kill with a Jet, setting up a Blood Moon on top. I continue with a Blood Moon into Koth into Stormbreath, and opp concedes.

    We play another game, which goes slightly better for my opponent thanks to Plaguecrafter. He is able to keep a Vial on three after I land Blood Moon, and is able to answer my Stormbreath with Plaguecrafter, then another Stormbreath with another Plaguecrafter, but is unable to take out my follow-up Koth which ticks up and assures me the game. He tried to vial in some stuff to swing at Koth, but I had too much removal for that to work thanks to Jet.

    Abzan Traverse:
    I am able to use my Relic to keep him off of delirium, Jet to kill his Grim Flayer (setting up my next draws), Koth to answer his Lili, which he answers with a Pulse. He tries with another Lili, but I'm holding double Bolt. I end up Jet'ing into another Koth and he can't keep up.

    No side here, my main is already pretty good.

    Game two I keep a 1-lander with two Bolts, a Relic, Moon, Koth, and Stormbreath, on the draw. Unfortunately it doesn't work out. I'm able to remove a Grim Flayer and keep him off of delerium, but I end up popping the Relic to dig for a second land (I'd drawn a Mind Stone by this point). Didn't see one, and I conceded once he cast Lingering Souls. I probably could have stayed in, there were lands coming up in two turns and his clock was slow, and he obviously didn't have Goyf or Flayer since he cast Souls. I knew he had Assassin's Trophy(s) in hand because he had no better play than Souls, and Trophy would help me more than hurt me at that point.

    Game three I'm able to Jet a Moon to the top, killing a Flayer, after my opp Inquisitions the one out of my hand. My opp can't keep up after that, thanks to P&K and Koth with a Moon out.

    All in all, Magma Jet's been amazing in combination with Mind Stone. The two of those combined ensure that I hit my "land drops" and still get business when I need it. I could have played better, like playing it safe with the Anger against the Humans friend instead of going for the Moon first, and not keeping a one-lander against Abzan (and/or not conceding too early against a slow clock).

    I have some more videos to upload to my Youtube channel still. For reference, here's the list I've been playing:

    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on Skred Red
    Not yet, unfortunately. I'd hoped to be able to record them this past week and upload them, but that didn't happen. I should be able to do it this weekend. I'll link them as soon as I do. The link to my Youtube channel is in my signature, the "(with videos)" link. I'd originally been doing strictly Lantern work up until it won the PT :p

    EDIT: Just got done recording four of them, got plenty more to do. Link to the Skred playlist is here. Still have to record RG Aggro, Naya Zoo (x2), Goblins, Bant Value, the Rock, Deadguy El(drazi), and more.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on [Primer] (WIP) The Crucible
    Maybe? It's actually been a while since I played around with this deck, been working on Utron, UW Taxes, and Skred :p
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on [Primer] Lantern Control
    Maybe :p I've had Rest in Peace in my sideboard for quite some time now, as it's great against other decks as well, like GDS, Storm, and Eggs. I expected the Dredge matchup to get harder due to Creeping Chill, but that sort of thing is to be expected. Lantern is at its best when decks are super linear, and Creeping Chill helps give Dredge not only a faster clock, but a way to deal damage outside of just creatures and Conflagrate. That's why decks like Bogles has been so easy (so linear) and Jund has been so hard (such a diverse group of threats and answers and angles of attack).

    My response it to continue to run Rest in Peace in my sideboard and kind of hope for the best. The meta shifts, as always, and maybe we'll get fed some more cards again like we were given in Kaladesh (Blooming Marsh, Botanical Sanctum, Whir of Invention, Padeem, Glint-Nest Crane) and Eldritch Moon (Collective Brutality). Time will tell, though.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on 8Rack
    I think you may be right on the Raven's Crime and Lilianas. I did a search for jump-start cards that might help, but they didn't really stand out as synergistic enough. I also think you're right on the Urborg, as they'll allow us to use the fetches for mana and save them for shuffling later. I changed my list a bit to include a full playset of Wrench Mind, and dropped Frenzy down to three. I also cut a Collective Brutality.

    Going to try to get some more testing in, but I'm no longer on vacation and have to go to work :p
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on 8Rack
    So I just tested it. It was absolutely bonkers. Here's the list I tested:



    I didn't test with a sideboard, just wanted to see how it would work out. I included eight fetches to keep spells on top when I would hit a land clump. I also included a single Overgrown Tomb, expecting that being able to fetch for green could be good for sideboard options. White may be better, though. It worked exactly as I imagined it would, just chaining discard/Racks/removal/etc. Raven's Crime and Collective Brutality made great use of cards drawn that I couldn't play.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on What Deck Should I Play Since I'm on a budget?
    It seems that your experiences with the deck are slightly different than mine, but our lists are also quite different. The past few months I've been approaching tweaking Skred using the same method that I used to work on Lantern. I built this spreadsheet to find the strengths and weaknesses in the deck.

    The spreadsheet ranks each card relative to the others with respect to increased or decreased win percentages when said card is in the opening hand. There are two reasons why I focus on opening hands when doing this. First, a typical Modern game is often decided by the play within the first four or five turns. Either the aggressive deck has obtained an overwhelming advantage, or the defensive deck has done a decent job of keeping the aggressive deck in check and is able to prolong the game into the stage in which it has the long-term advantage. This means that, assuming each player keeps an opening hand of seven cards, each player will have seen 11 to 12 cards to accomplish what it needs to accomplish (obtaining control of direction of the game. Thus, the opening hand will be somewhere between 58% to 63% of the resources each player will see to do this. The opening hand is going to be quite important in accomplishing this task, and thus the importance of having cards in the opener that can interact with the gamestate in some significant way. Note that I didn't say "interact with the opponent", because that isn't necessarily what matters. What matters is that they can interact with the gamestate with greater significance than the opponent. The second reason I focus on the opening hands is that it is more efficient when it comes to objectively evaluating the performance of cards. I prefer to use objective, concrete numbers rather than trying to assign arbitrary scores to topdecks. That arbitrary scoring would be subjective, and that allows room for bias.

    With that said, my current list, and explanations for it, is as follows:



    As noted in my signature, the basic concept of all competitive decks is to neutralize any relevant interaction that the opponent might have. Every deck has some weakness where it may not be perfect at doing this (unless the metagame gets completely warped, as seen during times such as the Eldrazi Winter, etc.). This deck accomplishes it by using removal for the many creatures in the format, combined with having effective ways to prevent the opponent from casting relevant cards (Blood Moon). It also has ways to combat the many graveyard-based decks (Relic of Progenitus). It uses difficult-to-answer threats (the creatures, combined with Koth of the Hammer). It can change roles from being an aggressive deck to being a midrange-control deck when needed.

    The hard-to-answer creatures are the methods to make it proactive. Those creatures are used to pre-emptively neutralize the many removal options used in today's metagame (going wide with tokens, being able to have a creature that always comes back, indestructible creatures, the inability to remove a planeswalker emblem, and a creature with protection from white). Blood Moon does pre-emptive work to constrict an opponent's options.

    As I mentioned, I used the spreadsheet numbers to tweak the deck, and it's been performing very well for me. Something of particular note is that, thanks to the ability to draw and sift through the deck with Relic of Progenitus, Mind Stone, Magma Jet, and Scrying Sheets, it's been easier than ever to make sure that our cards line up.

    The deck currently seems underrated by the community at large, and I can't say that I'm surprised. The community also once said that Lantern would get nowhere (and this is really where Lantern started!). This same spreadsheet method was successfully used on Lantern, and since then I've used the method to work on Mono Blue Tron and Taxes, and subsequently found success with those decks as well.
    Posted in: Budget (Modern)
  • posted a message on 8Rack
    To preface what I'm about to write, I feel that it would be good to describe my experiences piloting 8rack in the past, and the issues that I found with the deck.

    The largest issue that I found piloting 8rack was that we need certain things to come together in order for the deck to function as imagined. We need sufficient discard to not only disrupt the opponent, but to be able to make our Rack effects actually deal the necessary damage. Otherwise, the opponent can just play slow and hold cards, racing our ability to topdeck answers to their threat. We also need to draw sufficient lands to manage to cast everything. But, unless we have Raven's Crime or Liliana, every land we draw is going to be another card that the opponent doesn't have to discard. We also need to draw sufficient Rack effects to race the opponent. But every Rack effect we draw is not going to be a discard effect, and will again be parity for the opponent to hold cards.

    So what 8rack needs are cards that break this parity. Thus, the value of cards like Wrench Mind and Smallpox, where each of those spells can remove multiples of the opponents. The problem with these cards is that they are not guaranteed to give us that break in parity. The opponent may be able to just discard an artifact, or to play around Smallpox to make it hit both players equally. Collective Brutality also helps break this parity, allowing us to transform otherwise dead lands or unneeded cards into what we need at that time. Again, though, there is no guarantee here. This is also one of the big reasons why, in the past, people tried dipping into colors like red for cards like Blightning. We need that two-for-one.

    I was looking at ways to break this parity, and a card that jumped out to me is Experimental Frenzy. There are two big issues that I see though. The first is the converted mana cost, and the second is that it forces us into another color. Now, being forced into another color isn't so bad. Manabases can be built around this, and worse hurdles have been overcome. As for the converted mana cost, I found it very rare that we didn't get a fourth land drop during a game. So it is possible to include it, but could it be really worth it?

    What it does for us, though, is allows us to break the parity. We can now just play discard spell after removal after Rack effect. Our curve lets us easily play many cards per turn with Frenzy. Even when we get cards stuck in hand, we can still use those for pitching to Collective Brutality or Raven's Crime. It essentially cranks the deck into a sort of "turbo-mode". I think that there could be a real use for this card in the deck, but it would require some testing.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on What Deck Should I Play Since I'm on a budget?
    @sekiars, How much of Skred do you have left to build? IMO, that's a great budget deck. As someone who regularly plays tier decks in a competitive metagame, I genuinely feel that Skred is a sleeper deck. I've been working on using data to tweak my own list for a little bit now, and that method's been working very well. I would love to try to help, if you're interested.
    Posted in: Budget (Modern)
  • posted a message on [Primer] Lantern Control
    Hey mikemaz! I have not tested it. I'd considered it, but really been kind of focusing work on Skred here recently. I almost feel that having to pay the extra colored mana instead of colorless might make Sadistic Sacrament slightly better, really, or the extra colorless mana for Slaughter Games.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on BW Midrange/ "Deadguy Ale"
    Yeah, I can understand that. I was thinking afterwards that if WotC printed enemy-colored Talismans, the deck would probably get quite a boost. But there are options like Caves of Koilos which help a good deal. Like I said, it was very impressive playing against it. It combined the aggressive nature of a typical Eldrazi deck with the ability to go long of the planeswalkers and the disruption available to a typical BW deck.
    Posted in: Midrange
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