I actually managed to 3-1 tonight with just the out-of-the-box event deck. I didn't come expecting to play but someone bought the deck for me so I would. Had a blast.
Been eye-ing the deck for some time, I really think it can work. What did you think of Altar's Reap? Was it really worth playing? I feel like it might be better to just have more threats, but I could be wrong. I don't think it's wise to play a list without Nantuko Husk either. Having on-demand sacrifices is amazing.
Altar's Reap is def the weakest card but idk what else to replace it with. I want cheap sac outlets, and I don't think Husk is good outside of the more combo oriented build. This deck wins with a grindy tempo strategy, and Altar's Reap does help get some gas, but it's not amazing.
Been playtesting on MTGO a bunch, tweaking and tuning. Not sure if I'm taking the deck in the right direction tbh, or if I'm playing it correctly, but I began with the 1st place list and have been tinkering one or two cards at a time from there.
Some thoughts on card choices I've made: Favored Hoplite vs Lagonna-Band Trailblazer: With only 16 creatures, it feels necessary to have at least one that dodges Lightning Strike, Bile Blight, and perhaps most importantly Drown in Sorrow. That being said, I'm still not certain if cutting all four Hoplites is correct.
4 mainboard Seeker of the Way: In my testing, I was really enjoying the Prowess creatures and wanted a full suite of 8 mainboard, and the lifegain helps a lot to mitigate the damage from the mana base. Pretty certain I want to keep the playset in the main.
1 Hammerhand: It's just a card that does so many things for such little investment, I feel that any Heroic list can justify at least 1 of these in the 75. You will have the dodge blockers, and you won't always be able to Helix their board away.
1 Briber's Purse: A little easier to combo with, not useless outside of the combo (but not very exciting, either). Felt like it's worth seeing how it plays out with a singleton, not completely sold on it though. Might cut it if something more useful comes to mind.
Just got back from a SCG IQ. I built expecting Courser Midrange, the entire field was Jeskai Tempo. Went 0-2-1. ><; Not sure how to try to beat both Jeskai and Courser Midrange decks. I've found that my biggest opponent seems to be the mana base. Missing a 4th or 5th land happens more than I'd like and is a humongous tempo loss for me. Getting double white on turn 5 is proving consistently difficult, and I lost one game because I was cut off of double blue. I think I'm going to cut an End Hostilites for another land, possibly a Mana Confluence. The Jeskai matchup really needs to be addressed though if this deck is going to work, as right now it feels pretty awful. I don't have enough counterspells, even post board, to deal with all of their threats AND their burn AND their card advantage through draw spells.
Also not liking the Despises in the board. Even against Midrange, I feel like most mainboard cards are more relevant than the 3rd & 4th Despises. Tying to think of what else I would want, and honestly a 3rd Negate and 3rd Stroke seem like good options.
Actually Stormtide Leviathan seems like an absolute win-the-game card against Temur decks. They don't have access to any non-burn removal which this guy is way out of range of, and don't really pack many fliers (Stormbreath being the exception I can think of). You resolve one of those against that deck, then *worst case* scenario they have to use 2-3 burn spells against it. You get an unblockable 8/8 and they can't attack. Seems ok.
Sure, that's against Temur. What about against any other deck?
There's a part of me that wonders if Stormtide Leviathan should be considered. It forces the opponent to have an answer, and a pretty specific one at that(unless they want to three-for-one themselves with burn spells). It also stops most combat damage and Island-Urborgs your lands, which can come in handy. However, I wonder if this is more of a simic/rug/temur card due to the cost(like with Ashen Rider), as well as wanting to keep negate mana up.
Leviathan won't work as the only creature in your deck, there's no way it'll stick around when it's the only valid target you play for many of the good removal spells being played right now.
Now that I think about, Pearl Lake Ancient seems like he could be absolutely crushing in the mirror. If they try to kill him you can bounce 3 scrylands - you're likely sitting at 9 - 12 lands in play anyways, the extra scrys are likely to make a bigger difference than having the lands in play would as most turns would be "draw, go, draw, go".
On the point of discussion about finishing creature, I think we mostly agree that Pearl Lake Ancient or Prognostic Sphinx are the go-to creature options available. Now, I think the Ancient is an awesome card, but not against every match. It should be in the sideboard against control, or actually I think against Temur players. If you're in a control mirror - an actual control deck, not a midrangy one or something - then the lack of evasion isn't really relevant because there aren't really creatures to evade. And probably most players would likely take out most of their spot removal after game 1 against a control deck, so it's not like they'll have tons of removal to throw at it. Also, against Temur decks it can ambush viper their creatures - it'll eat most of them - and those colors don't really have the spot removal that'll just shoot it down.
Outside of those matches, the Sphinx is just better. Yes, it's a slow clock - but it also enables you such control over your draws that you shouldn't have a hard time managing the game until it does get there.
I hadn't seen this mentioned so far, but I think there is another creature that is worth mentioning in here. Tromokratis. It has hexproof, has it's own form of evasion, is a huge beater to begin with. His liability is when he attacks in, it has to be instant speed, and you have the ability to hold your countermagic for that. With fetches and painlands and other things considered, he might only need two combat steps to just end the game. I think it's worth trying out
I mostly agree with your points on Pearl Lake Ancient. I've had a little difficulty with RUG and Jeskai in my testing and I feel like he could be a house in those matchups, but I really wouldn't want him in the main.
Tromokratis is something I looked at and actually thought about for a few minutes but I don't think he's worth his cost - I feel like I'd rather have a 5 mana Sphinx than this guy most of the time. I also don't want to have to worry too much about protecting my threats. It's quite likely your opponent has been holding onto a Hero's Downfall or Jeskai Charm or some form of instant speed removal the whole game, and when this guy swings he just turns those on. Sphinx is also useful as a blocker, this guy just comes out too late for that to be of any use in many games. I could be underestimating him a little, but I'm fairly confident that Sphinx is the overall best creature for Esper right now.
Rabblemater comes down on turn 3, which is when your Counterspells and Hero's Downfalls are online. On the draw, having to take one swing from a Rabblemaster isn't the end of the world unless they're playing a Rabble Red style deck, in which case your hopes of winning G1 are slim to none. As I mentioned, though, it seems unlikely that these decks will be able to compete with a lot of the midrange plans, so it's hopefully not something to be terribly worried about. I have 8 cards to bring in against aggro though, but I'm hoping that as the meta develops I can shave this down if my predictions prove correct to make more room for cards against midrange.
Seems like the big reason to go esper is Thoughtseize, but without a way to easily gain the life back (nyx sheep are pretty clunky in a deck with multiple wraths, let's be honest), I'm not sure it's the best control color. I'm currently running U/W/R, so 2/3 of the esper colors, and my finishers right now are 2 Sarkhan, 2 Keranos, 1 Sphinx and 1 Resolute Archangel. I think I would prefer Elspeth over the Sphinx, but I'm testing the list tonight and may try to trade into an Elspeth or two if Sphinx doesn't perform.
Those of you that are talking about card advantage + sphinx, remember that they are spending a card to target your sphinx, so even though you have to discard one, you're retaining parity. Blue's card draw should easily keep you flush enough to be able to afford to turn random cards into God's Willing.
I would be very surprised if Jeskai Control does not turn out to be at least somewhat decent. It has all of the tools it needs, but I think the ability of black to kill resolved Planeswalkers with Hero's Downfall and Utter End is not to be underestimated, as it looks like we will be a seeing a *lot* of Planeswalker heavy midrange and even superfriends (Naya and Jeskai) this season.
I'm also a huge fan of the Thoughtseize + Despise package right now, as both are great against midrange and imo the best early game plan right now for Esper. I see some lists running Last Breath and it just seems awful, it's so incredibility narrow right now. Courser of Kruphix is about the only relevant thing it hits.
The gameplan with my list (3 posts above) is to use Thoughtseize and Despise to deal with early threats from mid range, while just accepting the fact that my game 1 against aggro is going to be tough. There's no reason to be scared of the mono 1 drop decks imo because they are being hated out hard by the midrange meta. Aggro will likely exist, but will have to go less all-in and will likely look more like the Jeskai Tempo deck than Rabble Red.
Right now I'm a little light on threats with 2x Elspeth and 2x Sphinx. Gaining control of games is not so difficult, but actually winning the game sometimes is. There's so many games that go super late with 10+ cards in my yard even after casting a Dig Through Time, I'm thinking of cutting one of the Murderous Cut's to move the Empty the Pits to the main.
R1 mirror match. Lost the die roll, lost G1, took G2, he took G3. All three games were extremely close in life totals. I'm fairly certain this match will most often go to the winner of the die roll. 0-1
R2 junk midrange. This is probably going to be the most popular deck, so being able to beat it is essential. I was able to curve out and just crush before he could play anything that mattered. Crackling Doom is a key card in this matchup. 1-1
R3 monogreen devotion. I feel this is a very good matchup. Not many of their cards are bothersome and once again, Crackling Doom is backbreaking for them. 2-1
R4 junk midrange. Went similarly to R2. Get in early and fast and the super-efficent fatties aren't so scary. 3-1
Ideally you want to drop a turn 1 creature (hence why the deck plays 12) and follow up with early tempo plays that put your opponent on the defensive from turn 1.
The only card in the deck that cares about Warriors is Chief of the Edge, but a 3/2 for 2 has proven itself to be the standard aggro two drop and playable for the stats alone. This aggresive two drop is all upside and doesn't really influence the deck's card choices very much, and actually arose as the answer to the question "I need an aggressive two drop to compliment Mardu Skullhunter."
Those twelve one drops allow for Mardu Skullhunter to almost always drop on turn two with his Raid trigger, which is a great two for one. In my testing I've rarely had to drop one without a raid trigger. Additionally, he's a Warrior so he gets pumped by Chief.
Tormented Hero sticks out as the only card played primarily because of it's creature type. His slot requires a 1 drop aggressive creature to solidify the chances of dropping Skullhunter with Raid on turn 2, and the options I arrived at were Tormented Hero, Soldier of the Pantheon, Firedrinker Satyr, Gnarled Scarhide, and Ruthless Ripper. There's quite a few possibilities, however I'm currently leaning toward Hero because of his mana cost and his creature type. Black is the most accessible color for the mana base, and the ability to threaten 3 damage on turn 2 if followed up by a Chief and 6 the following turn from those two alone is not to be underestimated. The second contender imo is Soldier of the Pantheon, but it's dependant on how relevant pro multicolored turns out to be.
Monastery Swiftspear This card is the real deal, folks, at least for Standard. Guarenteed haste, swings past Elves, and can easily sneak in 2 haste damage as early as turn two followed up by a Thoughtseize. In playtesting, even with only 12 spells, she's consistently at 2 power once or twice a game, which is a good enough portion of a game that the deck wants to end on turn 4-5. I foresee this seeing play in lots of aggro lists.
Goblin Rabblemaster, Bloodsoaked Champion, Thoughtseize, Lightning Strike should require little explanation. All but Bloodsoaked Champion are proven staples, and a 2/1 one-drop creature that can crawl of the grave for only two mana while also sporting the Warrior creature type is just brimming with obvious synergies in this deck. Additionally, Rabblemaster is a Warrior.
Butcher of the Horde Obvious synergies with Bloosoaked Champion and Goblin Rabblemaster aside, he almost always gets to swing with haste, and can turn a game against aggro around with lifelink. The options for vigilance and trample are just icing on the cake.
Crackling Doom This card does everything you want it to. It gets rid of what 90% of the time is your opponents most threatening creature, regardless of indestructibility, protection or hexproof, and domes them for 2 just for good measure. The damage is essentially free as the effect is worth the cost on it's own, but the fact that this also applies pressure means you don't have to sacrifice as much tempo to remove a problem creature.
The mana base is a bit of a headache. It's painful, sure, but it's very difficult to actually kill yourself and it's difficult for your opponent to ignore the swarm of aggressive beaters staring them down, who will certainly deal more damage to them than your lands will to you. Any ETB tapped land is out of the question imo, as ideally this deck is curving out turns 1-3 and is able to draw that curve very consistently.
The sideboard is up in the air completely. The gaping weakness of the deck is Anger of the Gods, which I intend Mardu Ascendancy to be a post-board answer to, but it's not a great one as it's too slow on the draw and has low impact the turn it's played. Erase is intended to primarily deal with Nyx-Fleece Ram among various other threats. Beyond that I'm unsure what will necessitate sideboard slots for this deck.
UWR Control looks to be an obvious best deck right now. Anger of the Gods, Supreme Verdict, Sphinx's Revelation, Steam Augury, Detention Sphere, Angel of Serenity, Lightning Strike, Azorius Charm... it has all of the tools right now.
Altar's Reap is def the weakest card but idk what else to replace it with. I want cheap sac outlets, and I don't think Husk is good outside of the more combo oriented build. This deck wins with a grindy tempo strategy, and Altar's Reap does help get some gas, but it's not amazing.
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/abzan-value-town-1/
Anger of the Gods
Drown in Sorrow
Destructive Revelry
Reclamation Sage
Erase
Take your pick, they all wreck the deck.
Some thoughts on card choices I've made:
Favored Hoplite vs Lagonna-Band Trailblazer: With only 16 creatures, it feels necessary to have at least one that dodges Lightning Strike, Bile Blight, and perhaps most importantly Drown in Sorrow. That being said, I'm still not certain if cutting all four Hoplites is correct.
4 mainboard Seeker of the Way: In my testing, I was really enjoying the Prowess creatures and wanted a full suite of 8 mainboard, and the lifegain helps a lot to mitigate the damage from the mana base. Pretty certain I want to keep the playset in the main.
1 Hammerhand: It's just a card that does so many things for such little investment, I feel that any Heroic list can justify at least 1 of these in the 75. You will have the dodge blockers, and you won't always be able to Helix their board away.
1 Briber's Purse: A little easier to combo with, not useless outside of the combo (but not very exciting, either). Felt like it's worth seeing how it plays out with a singleton, not completely sold on it though. Might cut it if something more useful comes to mind.
4 Akroan Crusader
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Lagonna-Band Trailblazer
4 Seeker of the Way
Spells
4 Defiant Strike
4 Retraction Helix
4 Gods Willing
4 Dragon Mantle
Enchantments
4 Dragon Mantle
1 Hammerhand
4 Jeskai Ascendancy
4 Springleaf Drum
1 Briber's Purse
Land
4 Mystic Monastery
4 Battlefield Forge
3 Mana Confluence
3 Temple of Triumph
2 Temple of Enlightenment
2 Shivan Reef
3 Chasm Skulker
2 Ajani's Presence
2 Erase
2 Banishing Light
2 Negate
2 Magma Jet
1 Tormod's Crypt
Also not liking the Despises in the board. Even against Midrange, I feel like most mainboard cards are more relevant than the 3rd & 4th Despises. Tying to think of what else I would want, and honestly a 3rd Negate and 3rd Stroke seem like good options.
1x Dig Through Time
2x Dissipate
4x Dissolve
1x Empty the Pits
3x Hero's Downfall
4x Jace's Ingenuity
1x Murderous Cut
2x Utter End
Planeswalker (2)
2x Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Creature (2)
2x Prognostic Sphinx
Sorcery (12)
2x Despise
2x Drown in Sorrow
4x End Hostilities
4x Thoughtseize
2x Caves of Koilos
4x Island
4x Polluted Delta
3x Swamp
4x Temple of Deceit
4x Temple of Enlightenment
4x Temple of Silence
1x Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2x Despise
2x Disdainful Stroke
2x Drown in Sorrow
2x Negate
4x Nyx-Fleece Ram
1x Pearl Lake Ancient
2x Pharika's Cure
Sure, that's against Temur. What about against any other deck?
Leviathan won't work as the only creature in your deck, there's no way it'll stick around when it's the only valid target you play for many of the good removal spells being played right now.
Hero's Downfall
Banishing Light
Utter End
Jeskai Charm
Murderous Cut
I mostly agree with your points on Pearl Lake Ancient. I've had a little difficulty with RUG and Jeskai in my testing and I feel like he could be a house in those matchups, but I really wouldn't want him in the main.
Tromokratis is something I looked at and actually thought about for a few minutes but I don't think he's worth his cost - I feel like I'd rather have a 5 mana Sphinx than this guy most of the time. I also don't want to have to worry too much about protecting my threats. It's quite likely your opponent has been holding onto a Hero's Downfall or Jeskai Charm or some form of instant speed removal the whole game, and when this guy swings he just turns those on. Sphinx is also useful as a blocker, this guy just comes out too late for that to be of any use in many games. I could be underestimating him a little, but I'm fairly confident that Sphinx is the overall best creature for Esper right now.
Rabblemater comes down on turn 3, which is when your Counterspells and Hero's Downfalls are online. On the draw, having to take one swing from a Rabblemaster isn't the end of the world unless they're playing a Rabble Red style deck, in which case your hopes of winning G1 are slim to none. As I mentioned, though, it seems unlikely that these decks will be able to compete with a lot of the midrange plans, so it's hopefully not something to be terribly worried about. I have 8 cards to bring in against aggro though, but I'm hoping that as the meta develops I can shave this down if my predictions prove correct to make more room for cards against midrange.
I would be very surprised if Jeskai Control does not turn out to be at least somewhat decent. It has all of the tools it needs, but I think the ability of black to kill resolved Planeswalkers with Hero's Downfall and Utter End is not to be underestimated, as it looks like we will be a seeing a *lot* of Planeswalker heavy midrange and even superfriends (Naya and Jeskai) this season.
I'm also a huge fan of the Thoughtseize + Despise package right now, as both are great against midrange and imo the best early game plan right now for Esper. I see some lists running Last Breath and it just seems awful, it's so incredibility narrow right now. Courser of Kruphix is about the only relevant thing it hits.
The gameplan with my list (3 posts above) is to use Thoughtseize and Despise to deal with early threats from mid range, while just accepting the fact that my game 1 against aggro is going to be tough. There's no reason to be scared of the mono 1 drop decks imo because they are being hated out hard by the midrange meta. Aggro will likely exist, but will have to go less all-in and will likely look more like the Jeskai Tempo deck than Rabble Red.
Just my 2 cents.
2x Prognostic Sphinx
Planeswalkers
2x Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Spells
2x Despise
4x Thoughtseize
2x Dissipate
4x Dissolve
2x Drown in Sorrow
3x Hero's Downfall
4x End Hostilities
4x Jace's Ingenuity
2x Utter End
2x Murderous Cut
1x Dig Through Time
4x Island
4x Swamp
4x Temple of Deceit
4x Temple of Enlightenment
4x Temple of Silence
4x Polluted Delta
1x Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1x Caves of Koilos
2x Despise
2x Disdainful Stroke
2x Drown in Sorrow
1x Empty the Pits
2x Negate
4x Nyx-Fleece Ram
2x Pharika's Cure
R1 mirror match. Lost the die roll, lost G1, took G2, he took G3. All three games were extremely close in life totals. I'm fairly certain this match will most often go to the winner of the die roll. 0-1
R2 junk midrange. This is probably going to be the most popular deck, so being able to beat it is essential. I was able to curve out and just crush before he could play anything that mattered. Crackling Doom is a key card in this matchup. 1-1
R3 monogreen devotion. I feel this is a very good matchup. Not many of their cards are bothersome and once again, Crackling Doom is backbreaking for them. 2-1
R4 junk midrange. Went similarly to R2. Get in early and fast and the super-efficent fatties aren't so scary. 3-1
4 Bloodsoaked Champion
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Tormented Hero
4 Mardu Skullhunter
4 Chief of the Edge
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Butcher of the Horde
Spells
4 Thoughtseize
4 Lightning Strike
4 Crackling Doom
4 Battlefield Forge
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Mana Confluence
3 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Mardu Ascendancy
4 Erase
7 ???
Ideally you want to drop a turn 1 creature (hence why the deck plays 12) and follow up with early tempo plays that put your opponent on the defensive from turn 1.
The only card in the deck that cares about Warriors is Chief of the Edge, but a 3/2 for 2 has proven itself to be the standard aggro two drop and playable for the stats alone. This aggresive two drop is all upside and doesn't really influence the deck's card choices very much, and actually arose as the answer to the question "I need an aggressive two drop to compliment Mardu Skullhunter."
Those twelve one drops allow for Mardu Skullhunter to almost always drop on turn two with his Raid trigger, which is a great two for one. In my testing I've rarely had to drop one without a raid trigger. Additionally, he's a Warrior so he gets pumped by Chief.
Tormented Hero sticks out as the only card played primarily because of it's creature type. His slot requires a 1 drop aggressive creature to solidify the chances of dropping Skullhunter with Raid on turn 2, and the options I arrived at were Tormented Hero, Soldier of the Pantheon, Firedrinker Satyr, Gnarled Scarhide, and Ruthless Ripper. There's quite a few possibilities, however I'm currently leaning toward Hero because of his mana cost and his creature type. Black is the most accessible color for the mana base, and the ability to threaten 3 damage on turn 2 if followed up by a Chief and 6 the following turn from those two alone is not to be underestimated. The second contender imo is Soldier of the Pantheon, but it's dependant on how relevant pro multicolored turns out to be.
Monastery Swiftspear This card is the real deal, folks, at least for Standard. Guarenteed haste, swings past Elves, and can easily sneak in 2 haste damage as early as turn two followed up by a Thoughtseize. In playtesting, even with only 12 spells, she's consistently at 2 power once or twice a game, which is a good enough portion of a game that the deck wants to end on turn 4-5. I foresee this seeing play in lots of aggro lists.
Goblin Rabblemaster, Bloodsoaked Champion, Thoughtseize, Lightning Strike should require little explanation. All but Bloodsoaked Champion are proven staples, and a 2/1 one-drop creature that can crawl of the grave for only two mana while also sporting the Warrior creature type is just brimming with obvious synergies in this deck. Additionally, Rabblemaster is a Warrior.
Butcher of the Horde Obvious synergies with Bloosoaked Champion and Goblin Rabblemaster aside, he almost always gets to swing with haste, and can turn a game against aggro around with lifelink. The options for vigilance and trample are just icing on the cake.
Crackling Doom This card does everything you want it to. It gets rid of what 90% of the time is your opponents most threatening creature, regardless of indestructibility, protection or hexproof, and domes them for 2 just for good measure. The damage is essentially free as the effect is worth the cost on it's own, but the fact that this also applies pressure means you don't have to sacrifice as much tempo to remove a problem creature.
The mana base is a bit of a headache. It's painful, sure, but it's very difficult to actually kill yourself and it's difficult for your opponent to ignore the swarm of aggressive beaters staring them down, who will certainly deal more damage to them than your lands will to you. Any ETB tapped land is out of the question imo, as ideally this deck is curving out turns 1-3 and is able to draw that curve very consistently.
The sideboard is up in the air completely. The gaping weakness of the deck is Anger of the Gods, which I intend Mardu Ascendancy to be a post-board answer to, but it's not a great one as it's too slow on the draw and has low impact the turn it's played. Erase is intended to primarily deal with Nyx-Fleece Ram among various other threats. Beyond that I'm unsure what will necessitate sideboard slots for this deck.