Quote from Squirtle_Squad »Do you think the print sizes are affecting the price? The BFZ and SOI blocks are/were being printed into oblivion. I dont know about KTK block however.
KTK had a fairly large print run because it was drafted as 3x for 3 months and then as 2x for another 3 months. Additionally, tons of people cracked it for the Fetchlands.
Dragons of Tarkir only had 3 months as a 2x set and was never drafted as a 3x set. It's also the only large set ever printed where this is the case - Avacyn Restored, Gatecrash, and Rise of the Eldrazi (the other non-Fall Large sets) were all drafted by themselves as 3x for at least three months. It has only a few staple Eternal cards, so its draw from the Eternal crowd was much smaller as well.
On top of this, Collected Company has been the cornerstone of one of the most dominant strategies in Standard, and has made a splash in Modern. So it's one of the most expensive non-Land, non-Mythic Rare cards in recent memory.
All that said, the set is one of the few standalone sets in standard, so there's lower intra-block synergy than with BFZ and SOI cards, and it has only three months left in Standard, which is why everything is starting to creep downwards.
Given the 3 individual + Core structure, I think we're going to see more and more sets with no rare duals in them. They only really want to release about 10 dual lands per year, putting five in every set would double that. Given that Shocks + Checks already gives us some very strong mana in standard, so I don't think we'll see duals in WAR or M20. When Checks rotate out with Archery in the Fall, we'll see a new dual land set start. Expect this to be the norm going forward - 5 duals in the first two or first and third set of a rotation, with none in the others.
Looking at the crunch, there are 3-5 Land slots remaining, depending on how many artifacts we get. I'd guess these will all be utility lands, several of which will probably be common mana-fixers a la Terramorphic Expanse, Undiscovered Shores, and similar.
So this is new information. The breakdown of the rare walkers is:
2 colorless (Karn & Ugin)
5 mono-colored (Jace, Chandra, Nissa, Vivien, ????)
6 two-color planeswalkers (Ajani, Domri, Ral, Sorin, Teferi, ???)
This means one of the two missing rare planeswalkers has to be two-colored.
Looking at our missing roster again, the walkers we don't yet know are:
Dovin Baan (UW)
Narset (Uwr)
Kasmina (????)
Sarkhan (Rgub)
Saheeli (RU)
Tamiyo (Uwg)
Huatli (GWr)
Ashoik (UB)
Jaya (R)
And our open slots are:
UW Uncommon
UB Uncommon
GW Uncommon
UR Uncommon
2 U Uncommons
1 R Common
2 Rares (one monocolored, one 2-colored)
Additionally, we know that the following color pairs already have a walker and therefore cannot get another rare walker:
WU (Teferi)
RG (Domri)
GW (Ajani)
UR (Ral)
BW (Sorin)
And looking at the color pairs, the following color pairs already have two rares, and as I calculated previously, that means they are unlikely to have room for a third given that it looks like each color gets 2 uncommons + 2 rares with 3-4 additional cards (two of which are Bolas and Niv Mizzet, and a third of which is likely The Elder Spell):
WU
BR
GW
UR
Which excludes BR, with the other three combinations already being excluded based on them having a planeswalker already.
That means that the missing two-color planeswalker can only be:
UB
BR
WR
UG
GB
Additionally, we know from the number crunch that only one of Narset/Saheeli/Sarkhan can be Hybrid, as they are competing for the same number slot. And Ashiok, Dovin, Huatli, Jaya, Kasmina are all competing for the same three number slots as hybrids. Tamiyo cannot be Hybrid.
Ashiok and Huatli are definite locks for their color combinations, as no other remaining planeswalker can be UB, and Kasmina *could* be GW but it wouldn't make a ton of sense and Huatli couldn't be a rare GW anyways. It wouldn't make much sense to have Huatli backslide to RW, and MaRo has said that she's GW now which necessitated Nahiri at uncommon. Saheeli I would also consider a lock - Narset could also be UR technically, but it doesn't make as much sense as her being UW or just U, and Saheeli can't be a rare anyways because of Ral. That locks in Dovin as our UW representative, because Narset can't be the UW walker if Saheeli is the UR one.
So if we lock in:
Ashiok (UB unc 228)
Dovin (UW unc 229)
Huatli (GW unc 230)
Saheeli (UR unc 234)
That leaves us with Narset, Tamiyo, Jaya, Kasmina, and Sarkhan as the remaining five walkers, with one opening in Red, two in Blue, and two as rare.
Either Jaya or Sarkhan is the missing Red card, with the other being rare. Jaya could in theory be RW, and Sarkhan could in theory be RB or even RW - I've spoken before about how he's the most color-flexible walker we've seen and his motivations could turn altruistic or he could be seen as a vengeance-seeker against Bolas.
Tamiyo, Narset, and Kasmina are competing over the U slots. Tamiyo could be UG as a rare or mono-U. Both of Narset's color combinations are taken so she is unlikely to be a rare as her only option would be mono-U. Kasmina, as always, remains a wildcard, and could theoretically be mono-W as a rare, mono-U as a rare, or possibly something like UG or WR.
If we look at the available crunch slots for each of these positions
Jaya - Red 135-136. Multi NO MATCH.
Sarkhan - Red 143-144. Multi 215-216.
Tamiyo - Blue 71. Multi 220.
Narset - Blue 61-62. Multi NO MATCH.
Kasmina - White 19-20. Blue 55-57. Multi NO MATCH.
This indicates that only Sarkhan or Tamiyo could be multicolored. Now, we can further narrow things down by assuming that each walker will have a mono-colored spell in their main color that begins with their name, i.e. Tamiyo's X, Sarkhan's Y, Narset's Z. This isn't a 100% guarantee, as it could be something like Mowu (Jiang's spell but it doesn't start with his name) or Karn's Bastion (shows up in a different section), but it's still a pretty good indication. Tamiyo only has one slot available in Blue and one in Multicolored, so I think she's the most likely to be a two-colored rare with a mono-colored spell. And Sarkhan still seems more worthy of a rare slot than Jaya is. So my best guess is this configuration:
Jaya - Red Uncommon 135 (136 is Jaya's Firewhatever)
Sarkhan - Red Rare 143. (144 is Sarkhan's Dragonbutt)
Tamiyo - Simic Rare 220. (71 is Tamiyo's Moonthing)
Narset - Blue Uncommon 61. (62 is Narset's Kung Fu Dealio)
Kasmina - Blue Uncommon 55 or 56. (56 or 57 is Kasmina's Shepherding or something)
Ashiok - UB Uncommon 228.
Dovin - UW Uncommon 229.
Huatli - GW Uncommon 230.
Saheeli - UR Uncommon 234.
But at instant speed so it can be used in response to removal or a trick that would kill the dude anyways.
So if you put in Doubling Season, and then on the next iteration, put in Bolas, it'd enter with 8 counters. If you put in Bolas first, it enters with 4 counters, and then putting Doubling Season in after, it would not impact Bolas at all.
Sarkhan is basically a lock for a rare planeswalker, as he and Jaya are competing for the second mono-red slot and he seems more likely to be rare than her. The other one is likely Tamiyo, possibly Kasmina. Dovin basically has to be the UW Hybrid at this point, with Tamiyo, Narset, and Kasmina competing for the two mono-blue slots. Of these, Tamiyo seems the most likely to be rare, though Kasmina could be rare and mono-white (this would mean three new white Planeswalkers though).
In theory, Sarkhan and/or Tamiyo could be multicolored, but all of the obvious pairs are taken already.
Sarkhan can't be RG (Domri) or RU (Ral). He could in theory be RB, but it'd indicate a color backslide, and it'd push RB to 3 rares. He could also be RW if they really wanted to mess with us - he's been every color BUT White, but that also means he's been the most color-flexible of all Planeswalkers. They could justify it flavor-wise through his quest for revenge against Bolas.
Tamiyo can't be UW (Teferi), but she could be UG. That'd be slightly weird, but it would fit.
This means that there's room for 2 uncommons per pair plus an additional 2 rare or mythics per pair, plus 3-4 additional multicolored cards, which includes both Bolas and the new Niv-Mizzet. Interestingly, with Role Reversal spoiled as a rare, this indicates that Izzet will most likely NOT get a legend in addition, meaning Roalesk/Storev/Toslmir may not be part of a ten-card cycle of legends. That does seem weird though given that each has a MMN mana cost, and Tolsmir/Ajani are in the same colors meaning it isn't a case of "you either get a walker or a legend".
Actually, with a little bit of analysis, I think I figured it out. Each color pair gets a MMN mana cost spell, but not all of these are legends - Widespread Brutality, Role Inversion, and Time Wipe all appear to be part of this cycle, meaning we can likely conclude that those pairs will not be getting legends.
So, looking at what we've got and what is missing:
WU - 1 Uncommon (Dovin's Veto), both rares (Teferi + Time Wipe), missing 1 Unc
UB - 1 Uncommon (Gleaming Overseer), neither rare, missing 1 Unc + 2 Rares
BR - 1 Uncommon (Angrath's Rampage), 2 Rares (Widespread Brutality, Dreadhorde Butcher), missing 1 Unc
RG - 0 Uncommon, 1 Rare (Domri), Missing both Unc and 1 Rare
GW - 0 Uncommon, both rares (Ajani, Tolsmir), missing both Unc
WB - 1 Uncommon (Celebrant), 1 Rare (Sorin), missing 1 Unc, 1 Rare
BG - 2 Uncommon (Deathsprout, Leyline Prowler), 1 Rare (Storev), missing 1 Rare
GU - 0 Uncommon, 1 Mythic (Roalesk), Missing 2 Unc + 1 Rare
UR - 1 Uncommon (Invade the City), 2 Rare (Ral, Inversion), Missing 1 Unc
RW - Missing everything
So that means we can still see Legends in:
Dimir
Gruul
Orzhov
Boros
It makes some sense that Red, Green, and Blue get two rares because white and black each have a mythic.
In theory, we could still see some deviations from this if WotC pulls a curveball and does something weird like make Narset or Sarkhan UR (and pushes Saheeli to rare), but the above layout looks like a lock to me.
This is not speculation, this is a card that has potentially been leaked but has not yet been confirmed to be true of false. Speculation is for things that you hope you will see.
Definitely don't think this is on par with Tarkir block. Fetchlands, Delve, Siege Rhino, Ugin, Collected Company, Kolaghan's Command, Monastery Mentor - Tarkir made a huge impact on Magic across all formats and lead to multiple new archetypes and multiple bans.
There's a few powerful cards here, but nothing yet on the level of Treasure Cruise.
There are minimum 3 and maximum 8 land slots remaining looking at the name and number crunch.
I think it's likely we'll see an uncommon tapland cycle in either allied or enemy pairs and nothing else. There's not room for two complete cycles.
Do note that despite having slightly higher multicolored cards than "usual" (with most sets having just a single cycle of ten uncommons), the multicolored counts are not terribly high. We've yet to see a single common multicolored card, the most uncommons of a single color pair spoiled so far is 2. There are also only 27 unfilled slots in the crunch, 14 of those will go towards rounding out two uncommons for each color pair and the remainder are likely rares and mythics.
And note that the Hybrid walkers may technically be multicolored, but they're significantly easier to cast than most multicolored cards.
Ugin (known to be rare)
Sarkhan
Jaya
Kamina (the new Shepherd-looking redhead)
Narset
Dovin
Ashiok
Huatli
Saheeli
Nahiri
Tamiyo
And these are competing for the following slots:
2 Blue Uncommon
1 Red Uncommon
3 Rares (including Ugin)
UW, UB, GW, UR, RW Uncommons
Here's our existing breakdown of Hybrid walkers:
Hybrids (0 M,0 R, 5 U, 0 C)
227 Angrath, Captain of Choas (Legendary Planeswalker - Angrath) (Uncommon)
228
229
230
231 Kaya, Bane of the Dead (Legendary Planeswalker - Kaya) (uncommon)
232 Kiora, Behemoth Beckner (Legendary Planeswalker - Kiora) (Uncommon)
233
234
235 Samut, Tyrant Smasher (Legendary Planeswalker - Samut) (Uncommon)
236 Vraska, Swarm's Emergence (Legendary Planeswalker - Vraska) (Uncommon)
Ashiok, Dovin, Kamina, Huatli, and Jaya can all fall in the three slots between Angrath and Kaya.
Narset, Saheeli, and Nahiri are all fighting for the two slots between Kiora and Samut.
Tamiyo and Sarkhan would both fall between Samut and Vraska, and thus cannot be uncommon, and thus are either monocolored uncommons or the missing rares.
Kamina is really the wildcard at this point. Her art points to her being mono-blue, mono-white, or blue-white. But we already have one blue-white rare (and definitely can't have two), and both Narset and Dovin are already competing for the blue-white uncommon slot, so she is unlikely to be blue-white. And, having two mono-white uncommons already (Teyo and The Wanderer), she cannot be a white uncommon. This means she has to either be a mono-blue rare, a mono-blue uncommon, or a mono-white rare. Given that the other three new planeswalkers (Teyo, The Wanderer, and Davriel) are all uncommon, it makes the most sense to put her as the mono-blue Uncommon. Alternately, they could really throw us for a loop and make her something like GW or RW, which would free up Huatli or Nahiri to take another slot - most likely Nahiri at rare to go along with Ugin and Sorin as the Eldrazi-Sealing Trio.
However, if we operate under the assumption that she is a mono-blue uncommon, that more or less locks in everything else, as the only pattern that fits and hits all ten pairs is this:
Hybrids (0 M,0 R, 5 U, 0 C)
227 Angrath, Captain of Choas (Legendary Planeswalker - Angrath) (Uncommon)
228 Ashiok (UB)
229 Dovin (UW)
230 Huatli (WG)
231 Kaya, Bane of the Dead (Legendary Planeswalker - Kaya) (uncommon)
232 Kiora, Behemoth Beckner (Legendary Planeswalker - Kiora) (Uncommon)
233 Nahiri (RW)
234 Saheeli (RU)
235 Samut, Tyrant Smasher (Legendary Planeswalker - Samut) (Uncommon)
236 Vraska, Swarm's Emergence (Legendary Planeswalker - Vraska) (Uncommon)
The remaining walkers are then, most likely, with their available slots as such:
Kamina (U uncommon, 055-057)
Narset (U uncommon 061-062)
Tamiyo (U rare 065-071) (though these three could be interchanged in rarities)
Jaya (R uncommon 133-139)
Sarkhan (R rare 143-145) (and again these two could be swapped)
And just for kicks, any of the above could fit into multicolor in the following slots, if they're rare:
Kamina (202-204)
Narset (202-204)
Tamiyo (217-220)
Jaya (202-204)
Sarkhan (212-215)