Ah, well, I wouldn't read too much into IQ or even classic results. Random and weird stuff will always be in the T8 of those. The more important point is the lack of open (or better) t8s. That's a decent signal that the deck isn't good, no matter whether it's playing manamorphose or not
Has a list t8ed at all recently? I think a big factor is that right now the best players aren't playing the deck, for good reason AFAICT, so when someone does happen to spike a tournament with the deck, it's less likely to be the best list.
That said, Humans is still widely played, and Manamorphose is bad against them specifically. So it might just be right to not play Manamorphose.
Calculating such a probability can be very tedious. I'm a statistician, and while I see how to compute it exactly, I never would for this sort of problem. It's much easier to approximate it via Monte Carlo simulation, assuming you can program in something like Python or R. Create a list of the cards left in the deck (ignoring the card you know is on the bottom). Select 14 (or however many you are interested in) of them randomly, then check to see if you hit the desired cards, then repeat with the original list. In, say, 10,000 repetitions, the proportion of times you hit will be close to the probability that you hit. The first decimal place should at least be right, anyway. If you want more precision, do more repetitions.
However, what you really need is to be able to compute these probabilities on the fly. You don't have time to program up a simulation in game. Without knowing the actual probabilities there, I would have went for it.
I like having both abrade and dismember postboard tbh. I typically shave 1-2 street wraith in this matchup to take pressure off our life total. But again, no idea what's right.
Yeah, I like having 2+ stub against devoted company. Coco, Chord, and Paths is a lot of targets, and all are very important.
Spirits it probably depends a lot on the build. If they have CoCo, then I'm inclined to keep 1-2 stubs in. If they don't, then you're only really countering Paths. Maybe Settle the Wreckage. But I'm pretty uncertain about this matchup.
Due to a metagame full of Mardu Pyromancer and KCI I will include two Silent Gravestone in my sideboard.
I don't think Gravestone is very good against Mardu. 4 mana is a lot to activate. Nihil Spellbomb is much better there. It is better against KCI, but I don't think we need narrow hate, as long as you're playing blue. Countermagic + discard + clock does the trick. Delay in particular is great. If your graveyard hate of choice is Surgical Extraction, you can also steal games that way. Taking either KCI or Trawler removes a lot of outs. Though beware of Sai postboard as an alternate win condition.
What would you recommend? I'm not sold on Lavamancer because too many relevant threats have more than 2 toughness. But also I haven't used Golgari Charm or Nihil Spellbomb much lately. The extra TBR could probably be removed too.
I think you have too many artifact destruction cards. They aren't even that great against KCI - counters are much better. I'd run a couple copies of Delay in the SB - it's literally the best counter against KCI (because of Buried Ruin), and also is good against Tron, Valakut, and basically anywhere where Stub is good. More sweepers is also good for all these humans and spirits decks and such. More of the artifact hate should probably be Abrade - it's removal in those matchups as well. Spellbomb could be Surgical if you really want to go hard on the graveyard decks (though it doesn't do anything against KCI).
Whenever I am comboing off I usually have enough mana to just through the breach borborygmos into play. So I was just wondering how necessary everyone thought having the one of manamorphose in the deck was?
Manamorphose doesn't add mana, it costs 2 and gives you back 2. Instead it digs you one deeper into the deck for free on your combo turn. This is crucial if, e.g., you only have 5 cards left in your deck so you can't activate Griselbrand anymore, but you haven't found a Borborygmos yet.
The last build I tried cut the blue entirely in order to better support Anger's double red (and tried some other things). This was... OK. Not having blue changes the KCI matchup from a slam dunk to something a little tougher, and cost me a match win. Though I should probably have had more surgicals partially for them.
Remember that often times against Vengevine they will have a sac outlet so Anger isn't always going to connect. I like Radiant Flames because of the X=4 trick against Humans and Thalia.
Yeah, it helps though. Short of Gargadon, we have plenty of spot removal to hit their sac outlets. And one of the main reasons I keep losing is stuff like Gravecrawler and Bloodghast is just relentless. Plus it adds percentage points against Hollow One. The X=4 trick happens (and matters at the same time) so infrequently that it's hard for me to really factor that in.
I'm trying the one-of snapcaster now, and so far I've traversed for it once as a removal spell against Humans, but also drew it in some terrible spots. We'll see how it goes.
With Bugler now in humans, I think we want to increase the sweeper count. Lavamancer is less likely to really hurt them. So I'm thinking 1 Lavaman 2 Radiant Flames / Anger. I used to be a Radiant Flames guy, but the vengevine deck is making me want Anger despite the mana issues it causes. That deck also has me running Surgical instead of Spellbomb.
In my last two leagues I manage to beat Jund but lose to UW, so maybe UW is worse
Yeah, trying to grind against them seems awful. They just have so many more and better tools. But the tempo plan doesn't seem that great against UW either. I'm not sure what the best plan is.
I've been in the middle of a move the past week or so and only recently got internet at the new place, but the metagame appears to be shifting in a more favorable position for Shadow lately, and I think I'll put some testing time in.
I think we can fight UW pretty effectively since they're running Terminus instead of Verdict. We can easily Stub that, and Teferi. It won't be a favorable matchup, but it doesn't have to be as atrocious as Jeskai is. (Or Jund) Just play 2 basics and manamorphose so their mana denial plan isn't quite the KO is can be.
I suspect that we're pretty favored against the bridgevine deck, though it has me considering Surgical instead of Spellbomb as the GY hate. But I reeeally like having spellbomb because it's also good against Mardu where surgical really isn't.
I'm pretty skeptical of Snapcaster in this shell because it's so slow and clunky, but I do like the 1 of Flayer as an additional threat. And I wouldn't leave home without MD bolts these days. Gotta have them for Humans. That will probably be the focus of my testing once I get to it: trying to flip the Humans matchup. If we can make that positive, I think everything will fall into place.
These are helpful pointers, thank you. I hadn't considered those other applications for Fulminator.
The Maelstrom Pulse got me thinking, what are our answers to Teferi? I don't like using Pulse at all but what other options do we have? And if I play a 75 with 0 answers to Teferi (I'm likely even removing Souls from my board) then should I always take Teferi with Thoughtseize, even if they have a more immediately relevant answer in hand (such as Path)? It seems like Teferi is completely unbeatable if they drop him when I have one or less threats on the board. Maybe that's what you have Delay for?
Regarding Leyline OTV, if Mardu brings it in then that's just another target for Golgari Charm so I'm not too worried.
-EDIT-
What about Thrun in the board against Jeskai and other non-Jund match-ups?
Also, I have another question for you about the selection of fetchlands. Obviously VC and BC are 4x but I'm wondering about choices on the others. The split is between Wooded Foothills and Polluted Delta, and the trade-off is that WF can't fetch Watery Grave just like PD can't fetch Stomping ground. But another consideration is that Polluted Delta can still fetch all 4 colors but Foothills can't fetch blue at all (unless you play Breeding Pool). It's for this reason that I've stuck with Delta over Foothills, mainly because in a pick-up a few weeks ago I needed blue immediately (Stub in hand) but my only fetch was WF. I'm sure there could be a time when I already have Watery Grave and I need Stomping ground to fill the other color roles while I operate on only 2x lands. What's your reasoning here?
Delay is not great against the control decks, typically, because they have a way of prolonging the game. But Stub counters Teferi just fine, and of course protects our threats. I think that's where you want to be. Answering a Teferi that has already hit the table probably means you've already lost.
Thrun is not great for a couple reasons: 1) it's hard for us to hold up regeneration mana every turn, 2) double green can be annoying especially against the UWx control decks that have some number of field of ruin or even spreading seas, 3) traverse for thrun plus play him in the same turn is basically impossible, 4) settle the wreckage. It's still useful in those matchups, but it's not the haymaker we want it to be, and it doesn't do much in other matchups.
Another motivation for Wooded Foothills is to have another way to fetch for basic forest. But thinking about it now, I believe that should be 1 Foothills, 2 Delta. Been a while since I've thought about this manabase, and I was mostly regurgitating what I thought was an old one
This card hurts us more than it helps tbh. Our manabase is pretty fragile, even in pure Jund. We just can't play that many basics.
That said, Humans is still widely played, and Manamorphose is bad against them specifically. So it might just be right to not play Manamorphose.
However, what you really need is to be able to compute these probabilities on the fly. You don't have time to program up a simulation in game. Without knowing the actual probabilities there, I would have went for it.
Spirits it probably depends a lot on the build. If they have CoCo, then I'm inclined to keep 1-2 stubs in. If they don't, then you're only really countering Paths. Maybe Settle the Wreckage. But I'm pretty uncertain about this matchup.
I don't think Gravestone is very good against Mardu. 4 mana is a lot to activate. Nihil Spellbomb is much better there. It is better against KCI, but I don't think we need narrow hate, as long as you're playing blue. Countermagic + discard + clock does the trick. Delay in particular is great. If your graveyard hate of choice is Surgical Extraction, you can also steal games that way. Taking either KCI or Trawler removes a lot of outs. Though beware of Sai postboard as an alternate win condition.
I think you have too many artifact destruction cards. They aren't even that great against KCI - counters are much better. I'd run a couple copies of Delay in the SB - it's literally the best counter against KCI (because of Buried Ruin), and also is good against Tron, Valakut, and basically anywhere where Stub is good. More sweepers is also good for all these humans and spirits decks and such. More of the artifact hate should probably be Abrade - it's removal in those matchups as well. Spellbomb could be Surgical if you really want to go hard on the graveyard decks (though it doesn't do anything against KCI).
Manamorphose doesn't add mana, it costs 2 and gives you back 2. Instead it digs you one deeper into the deck for free on your combo turn. This is crucial if, e.g., you only have 5 cards left in your deck so you can't activate Griselbrand anymore, but you haven't found a Borborygmos yet.
The last build I tried cut the blue entirely in order to better support Anger's double red (and tried some other things). This was... OK. Not having blue changes the KCI matchup from a slam dunk to something a little tougher, and cost me a match win. Though I should probably have had more surgicals partially for them.
Yeah, it helps though. Short of Gargadon, we have plenty of spot removal to hit their sac outlets. And one of the main reasons I keep losing is stuff like Gravecrawler and Bloodghast is just relentless. Plus it adds percentage points against Hollow One. The X=4 trick happens (and matters at the same time) so infrequently that it's hard for me to really factor that in.
With Bugler now in humans, I think we want to increase the sweeper count. Lavamancer is less likely to really hurt them. So I'm thinking 1 Lavaman 2 Radiant Flames / Anger. I used to be a Radiant Flames guy, but the vengevine deck is making me want Anger despite the mana issues it causes. That deck also has me running Surgical instead of Spellbomb.
Yeah, trying to grind against them seems awful. They just have so many more and better tools. But the tempo plan doesn't seem that great against UW either. I'm not sure what the best plan is.
I've been in the middle of a move the past week or so and only recently got internet at the new place, but the metagame appears to be shifting in a more favorable position for Shadow lately, and I think I'll put some testing time in.
I think we can fight UW pretty effectively since they're running Terminus instead of Verdict. We can easily Stub that, and Teferi. It won't be a favorable matchup, but it doesn't have to be as atrocious as Jeskai is. (Or Jund) Just play 2 basics and manamorphose so their mana denial plan isn't quite the KO is can be.
I suspect that we're pretty favored against the bridgevine deck, though it has me considering Surgical instead of Spellbomb as the GY hate. But I reeeally like having spellbomb because it's also good against Mardu where surgical really isn't.
I'm pretty skeptical of Snapcaster in this shell because it's so slow and clunky, but I do like the 1 of Flayer as an additional threat. And I wouldn't leave home without MD bolts these days. Gotta have them for Humans. That will probably be the focus of my testing once I get to it: trying to flip the Humans matchup. If we can make that positive, I think everything will fall into place.
Delay is not great against the control decks, typically, because they have a way of prolonging the game. But Stub counters Teferi just fine, and of course protects our threats. I think that's where you want to be. Answering a Teferi that has already hit the table probably means you've already lost.
Thrun is not great for a couple reasons: 1) it's hard for us to hold up regeneration mana every turn, 2) double green can be annoying especially against the UWx control decks that have some number of field of ruin or even spreading seas, 3) traverse for thrun plus play him in the same turn is basically impossible, 4) settle the wreckage. It's still useful in those matchups, but it's not the haymaker we want it to be, and it doesn't do much in other matchups.
Another motivation for Wooded Foothills is to have another way to fetch for basic forest. But thinking about it now, I believe that should be 1 Foothills, 2 Delta. Been a while since I've thought about this manabase, and I was mostly regurgitating what I thought was an old one