Mardu seems to be taking over the Jund role, and that match-up seems highly favorable post board where I'll have 2 Golgari Charm and 2 Nihil spellbomb. How do you feel about Kolaghan's Command against them? All of their tools put my creatures in the graveyard (as opposed to exile or library, etc) so the return mode is relevant. It can destroy bridge which is pretty crippling otherwise (especially if you're removing Abrupt Decay entirely) and it can pick off a Pyro or discard that last card in their hand.
Against Tron, do you feel that Ghost Quarter as an alternative to Fulminator Mage, being less Mana-intensive and potentially a turn faster, could be worth consideration in the sideboard? I was thinking 1&1 as opposed to your 2x Mage.
Mardu is the one midrange matchup where we can actually move the needle, though I don't think it'll ever be favorable unless you dedicate a lot of SB space to them. This is also a matchup where Grim Flayer is strong. Spellbomb + Golgari Charm are indeed great, and exactly what you want. I also bring in Grim Lavamancer and Radiant Flames since it fights the go wide strat. I always bring Abrade in against them too, in place of less flexible removal. Kills Bridge, and if they don't have bridge it can pick off a Young Pyromancer.
K command feels pretty slow and clunky against them though. I mostly don't want to prolong the game, because eventually they'll Blood Moon you, or get Reveler going, or find Bridge. But if you want that sort of effect, I'm more inclined to run Liliana, the Last Hope. Recursion, but also helps contain a major part of their plan. Despite being a 3 drop just like K Command, and thus slow and clunky, and also a grindy card that prolongs the game in a matchup that I don't want games to go long, she's high enough impact that I think she's worth it.
Also, they may have Leyline of the Void in their SB, and they may bring it in against us. That reeeally hurts us going long, but some hands it won't impact much. You could theoretically have an answer in the 75 to bring in, but stuff like Maelstrom Pulse is so clunky.
Ghost Quarter is faster against Tron, but the effect is significantly weaker. They can just hard cast Thragtusk or Wurmcoil sometimes, and their Relic draws will sometimes buy them an insane amount of time if Goyf stays small or we can't get delirium going. Plus, Fulminator is a reasonable board in against non-mardu midrange and control decks - sometimes you can get luck and mana screw them, in what are otherwise bad matchups, and those manlands are also a problem. Ghost Quarter does not have this additional flexibility. It also does nothing against Valakut, whereas Fulminator can buy you a turn in a pinch.
Fantastic post @Spooly, really appreciate your insight. As someone who is just starting to get into the format (longtime legacy player) I find these kind of breakdowns to be really helpful. Looking forward to your article!
edit: Did anyone ever try Whispers of Emrakul out of the board with this deck?
edit2: I found the search function. New question: has any reconsidered playing it lately?
It's really hard to make Whispers of Emrakul work - you basically need Thought Scour on top of everything else we are doing to enable it in a reasonable amount of time. Plus, it has strong diminishing returns on top of already running 8 one mana discard spells. If we could cast it on turn 2 reliably, it would be a different story. But that's a hard ask.
Hello, I'm considering to include one or two Ground Seal in the SB
I find Ground Seal can be good against KCI, Dredge, Reanimator... and it is also a good protection against Scavenging Ooze or even Surgical Extraction (it is terrible if the opponent surgical our DS or Tarmo).
The other possible modification is the mentioned 3rd Temur Battle Rage in the SB or in the main...
What is your opinion?
Some points: 1) 2 mana is a lot for this deck, so the card better be worth it 2) we really want our graveyard hate to hamper Mardu Pyromancer, because that's one of the ways we can steal wins, 3) against KCI and Reanimator, our plan A already crushes them, 4) Ground Seal doesn't stop Dredge at all.
Because IRL friends keep asking me for a list even though I keep telling them to play KCI or Humans or Mardu or Tron instead, here's a couple of speculative lists to get some juices flowing. At some point I'm going to write an article for deadonboard.com trying to explain how I think Shadow fits into modern since the rise of Humans and Mardu, and the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf. But first I have to move :D. This is a bit of brainstorming for that article.
The main difference between the two lists is, how afraid are you of Thalia? I would like to be able to play Manamophose because of what it does for the deck's ability to consistently produce a threat early, but Thalia is a very strong reason why that may be a bad idea. And if SCG Indy is any indication, Humans is having a resurgence (thanks to Militia Bugler in part).
This list is pretty close to the "core" I posted a few pages back. I tried playing zero Stubs in the 75, maxing out on TBR, and even the recent Suicide Zoo lists. Conclusion: you still need Stub. Not in copious amounts, but a couple are good. So other than mixing up the removal suite, and cutting a removal spell for a Grim Flayer, this list is largely just one of the previous Manamorphose lists I've posted maybe a couple months ago. Geared to beat humans though, at the cost of losing Abrupt Decay in the 75. The SB is also geared for Humans, with Lavamancer and Radiant Flames. The only grindy deck we really have SB cards for is Mardu: Golgari Charm, Spellbomb, and Abrade to kill Bridge if they have it. We are basically conceding to Jeskai and Jund. It's too hard to gain percentage points there, so we're hoping that Tron and such pushes it out of the metagame if we play this deck. Though Golgari Charm does stop Supreme Verdict. So the goal is to beat humans, take advantage of our natural strength against KCI, and beat Tron. Yes, you want the Fulminator for Tron. Even as a slow Traverse target, it can often take games that you are about 60% to win to about 90%. I've played 2 before just to naturally draw them.
But if our goal is to beat humans, Manamorphose is a problem. We reeeally want it against Tron and KCI to get a threat out fast, but Thalia is a real problem out of humans. So that motivates the Manamorphose-less build. We have to make up for our worse ability to get delirium, so that means 1) more threats, and 2) Tarfire (or maybe Seal of Fire). Tarfire is also an ok removal spell against humans. Here's the relevant list:
The other change here is the 3rd TBR. I kind of want a 3rd TBR in the first list, but there's just no room. But if we cut the Manamorphoses, that means the deck size is larger and we have extra slots, so in one goes. It could be a second Tarfire to be honest though. The SB is the same, though I'm not sure if that's correct. But in any case, this just where I'd start, if I were dead set on playing Shadow. Essentially: max out on threats, do everything you can to beat Humans (harder) and Tron (not so hard), use GY hate to try to get under Mardu, and then find out if you can still get away with Manamorphose if you absolutely need to beat humans. If you can, great! If not, see if you still consistently produce a threat fast enough if all the other matchups. One bad thing about wanting to beat both tron and humans is that tron makes you want Breeding Pool (so Worldbreaker doesn't KO your countermagic) while Humans makes you want Stomping Ground (so you can double red spell / activate lavaman in one turn). So that's another thing we need to learn: how important are those two things for those respective matchups, and which one should we choose? I lean toward double red, but it could go the other way.
Of course your local metagame could vary. This is trying to beat the expected SCG Open / GP metagame.
So, in theory, is an opening hand with tons of cantrips, maybe a Thoughtseize or Inquistion, but otherwise no guaranteed action - worth keeping? I'm asking this of Spooly and the other Manamorphos players. The deck has some difficult mulligan decisions as it is.
I struggled with mulligans a lot with this deck, but playing a bunch of games has helped a lot. The following are my general criteria for keepable hands (if anyone disagrees, feel free to chime in):
1. Ideally be able to deploy a threat by turn 2/3. Traverse + land(s) + at least 3/4 delirium enablers = keep for me.
2. Mull just about any hand with 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 lands.
3. Always keep your 5.
4. I believe you are more often rewarded than punished for keeping speculative hands filled with cantrips IF you only have 1-2 lands. If you have a 2-lander with 4 cantrips and 1 discard spell, I would keep it in the dark. Bauble tricks also compel me to keep more borderline hands.
Do this experiment while you test Manamorphose: keep track of all the occasions it allows you to achieve delirium, and also keep track of all the times it would give you delirium if you were to draw it. It wasn't until I did the latter that I really began to appreciate how much it does for the deck. And to think it has so much other utility, too!
I largely agree with this, though "Always" is a little strong on keeping the 5. If my 7 is 2 lands, a pile of cantrips, and a discard spell though, I might mulligan it in some matchups. Especially if I can't create a scry using Bauble somehow. For example, against Tron, where we really need the threat early and our interaction is not likely to slow them down enough if we don't have one. I'm not certain about this though. In the dark, I think we have to keep that hand. It's part of what we signed up for with this many cantrips, and sometimes it won't pan out, but at least we have some interaction.
Regarding the need to be more aggressive: Manamorphose is the truth. I would not play the deck without it, and trust me when I say that it took me a while to fully appreciate it (you need to play enough games to feel the difference it makes in consistency). I highly recommend you try Spooly's list; I'm personally playing an older iteration of it.
<3
I just wish the deck was well positioned right now.
I took the original list I used to win my SCG Regionals to a weekly for the nostalgia value since it's the last weekly before I move halfway across the country, and casually 5-0ed, including beating Mardu twice, and winning a match against spirits partially because my opponent made uncharacteristically (for him) boneheaded plays, and because he accidentally left relevant sideboard cards at home. I'm convinced that particular 75 has some voodoo powers now.
Wall of Omens has been the key to unlock this deck. Digs, buys time, and allows you to Infernal Plunge to cast Breach on turn 3 if necessary. I've experimented with including 2-3 Restoration Angels and a singleton Kiki Jiki, but it's mostly too clunky. 3 Walls seems about right though. I'm pretty happy with the MD numbers, but the SB numbers need work. Linvala is suppose to be a grindy card that happens to come in against burn, but it hasn't impressed me. It's too hard to set up against burn a lot of the time, and Grave Titan is a better haymaker for the grindy matchups. I'd really like Timely Reinforcements in the SB for burn and other aggro, but it's so bad against humans it's hard to justify.
The humans matchup is bad to about even, depending on your configuration. But I think you need to have an actively GOOD matchup to make Shadow worth it.
Yeah, I think Traverse is significantly better than GDS because of the threat issue. Not that I think that Traverse is good... but I think GDS is worse. Even Ben Friedman said he doesn't think GDS has a good matchup in the to 10 decks of the metagame, where about half seem favored for Traverse. The wrong half, perhaps, but half.
I hear ya on Decay. But right now I think Traverse Shadow need more cheap removal to justify itself, TBH. If you can't beat humans, I don't think you should be playing the deck.
It sounds like what you're advocating is essentially the old suicide zoo lists? Rather than playing a ton of interaction, just go faster and play similar to infect?
Maybe not that far. I'm still thinking the Traverse shell, just tweaking the flex slots + interaction to optimally fight the format. And probably getting a Grim Flayer in there too just to make sure we have the early pressure. Suizoo requires a whole lot of different things in order to support the combo-centric nature of the deck.
Not that I don't think Suizoo is worth exploring. I did try it in a weekly last Wed, and crushed - 4-1, only losing to burn in the last round on some pretty poor draws. It still felt pretty powerful. The one MTGO league I ran it through resulted in a 2-3 though, so maybe it was just the level of competition :D. In any case, I think Suizoo operates differently enough than the Traverse/Grixis/Mardu/whatever shadow lists that the above reasoning doesn't really apply. The proper comparison isn't Humans, it's Infect, Hollow One, and Burn. Aggro/Combo with light disruption elements.
I somewhat like the 75 of Aj Kerrigan better. Looking to the top 16 of the classic portion makes me feel that Stubborn Denial needs to be in the sideboard as it does not have an awful lot of good matchups. However, the team portion was full with control decks! What are your thoughts?
If everyone is playing control, I want to be as far away from Death's Shadow as possible to be honest.
Postboard we tend to have a lot more red spells, so it's less of an issue. I hate making that gamble mainboard, especially when I'm not convinced that I prefer Bolt to Push/Decay against the meta at large.
I largely agree, but think this puts us in a catch-22. If humans is a big enough % of the metagame, we want bolt and not Decay (though Push is still fine). If it's not, then that probably means control decks are prominent, which means we probably shouldn't be playing a Shadow deck.
There's another pseudo-catch 22 here. In many metagames, Humans does a better job of doing what the Shadow decks do: decently fast clock + disruption to beat a wide swathe of unfair decks in the format. The reason Humans is better than Shadow at this is not necessarily how well it does in those matchups, but how well it does in other matchups - it can steal games against the midrange decks more easily IMO. The exceptions to this involve Tron, which allegedly Humans isn't fast enough to have that great of a matchup against, and aggro decks, where Shadow can get an edge just by having a pile of removal. So for Shadow to justify itself, it has to be good against big mana and/or fast aggro, including humans. And beating humans specifically necessitates Lightning Bolt, again. While beating big mana necessitates other deckbuilding decisions, like countermagic.
Honestly, I have trouble seeing how Death's Shadow can fit into the meta given all of this. I mean, if you don't care about maximizing your win percentage at the expensive of literally every thing else, it's still a fine choice (like many decks in modern), but I think it's unlikely that the stars align and Shadow is a legit tier 1 deck.
That said, IMO the most likely possibility is something that shoves in on TBR and tries to kill everyone, aggro, big mana, even midrage decks, ASAP, while potentially cutting blue. It'll still have plenty of trouble with midrange and control decks, but maybe that's enough to win the aggro and big mana matchups at the same time (while still doing its thing against spell-based combo), which does a better job of justifying the deck as something to play instead of humans. Maybe this even means cutting some discard spells! I'm not sure.
Edit to add: the other spot where Shadow can justify itself over Humans is specifically against KCI. Humans has a medium to slightly unfavorable KCI matchup, it turns out, because of stuff like EE and pyrite spellbomb and Ghirapur Aether Grid. But Shadow dunks on that deck, especially if it keeps the countermagic in the 75.
the suicide list impressed me. literally replacing the 4 probes from the old suizoo lists with land + 3 random cards and it's still good. I have some ideas to try in that shell.
I'm pretty much off Looting after trying it. We have a lot of trouble profitably casting it early without something to discard for value, which kills it for me. I think the core of the deck is basically this:
That leaves 3 slots to play with, though you could also tweak the removal suite. But right now Bolt is really valuable because of Humans, and Decay feels slow and clunky. Options for the last 3 slots: 1) 1-3 Stubborn Denial of course, but maybe we don't want blue at all, 2) 1-2 Grim Flayer to get more threats and fuel delirium. 2 seems like a stretch, but maybe 1, 3) more removal - another push or bolt is reasonable, but a Tarfire might also be worth it. 4) a traversable haymaker. Bedlam Reveler is my #1 here, but it seems like more of a SB card, 5) planeswalkers - 1-2 LOTV and/or 1 LtlH, 6) more TBR.
My prefered options are: 1) 2 Stub, 1 TBR, 2) 1 Flayer, 1 TBR, 1 removal spell, maybe a Tarfire. 1) is old reliable, 2) is experimental, removing blue from the deck entirely and being as aggressive as possible. I might give it a shot soon, but first I gotta try the suicide zoo build that Daryl Ayers just 5-0ed a league with.
I'm not a big fan of Rampager either. I could see it in certain metagames where pushing through chump blockers is super important, but I don't think that's where we are at.
Mardu is the one midrange matchup where we can actually move the needle, though I don't think it'll ever be favorable unless you dedicate a lot of SB space to them. This is also a matchup where Grim Flayer is strong. Spellbomb + Golgari Charm are indeed great, and exactly what you want. I also bring in Grim Lavamancer and Radiant Flames since it fights the go wide strat. I always bring Abrade in against them too, in place of less flexible removal. Kills Bridge, and if they don't have bridge it can pick off a Young Pyromancer.
K command feels pretty slow and clunky against them though. I mostly don't want to prolong the game, because eventually they'll Blood Moon you, or get Reveler going, or find Bridge. But if you want that sort of effect, I'm more inclined to run Liliana, the Last Hope. Recursion, but also helps contain a major part of their plan. Despite being a 3 drop just like K Command, and thus slow and clunky, and also a grindy card that prolongs the game in a matchup that I don't want games to go long, she's high enough impact that I think she's worth it.
Also, they may have Leyline of the Void in their SB, and they may bring it in against us. That reeeally hurts us going long, but some hands it won't impact much. You could theoretically have an answer in the 75 to bring in, but stuff like Maelstrom Pulse is so clunky.
Ghost Quarter is faster against Tron, but the effect is significantly weaker. They can just hard cast Thragtusk or Wurmcoil sometimes, and their Relic draws will sometimes buy them an insane amount of time if Goyf stays small or we can't get delirium going. Plus, Fulminator is a reasonable board in against non-mardu midrange and control decks - sometimes you can get luck and mana screw them, in what are otherwise bad matchups, and those manlands are also a problem. Ghost Quarter does not have this additional flexibility. It also does nothing against Valakut, whereas Fulminator can buy you a turn in a pinch.
If you're worried about midrange grindfests, honestly, it's better to switch decks. It's really hard to gain percentage points in those matchups.
It's really hard to make Whispers of Emrakul work - you basically need Thought Scour on top of everything else we are doing to enable it in a reasonable amount of time. Plus, it has strong diminishing returns on top of already running 8 one mana discard spells. If we could cast it on turn 2 reliably, it would be a different story. But that's a hard ask.
Some points: 1) 2 mana is a lot for this deck, so the card better be worth it 2) we really want our graveyard hate to hamper Mardu Pyromancer, because that's one of the ways we can steal wins, 3) against KCI and Reanimator, our plan A already crushes them, 4) Ground Seal doesn't stop Dredge at all.
The main difference between the two lists is, how afraid are you of Thalia? I would like to be able to play Manamophose because of what it does for the deck's ability to consistently produce a threat early, but Thalia is a very strong reason why that may be a bad idea. And if SCG Indy is any indication, Humans is having a resurgence (thanks to Militia Bugler in part).
First, the Manamorphose list.
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Manamorphose
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Grim Flayer
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Dismember
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Radiant Flames
2 Collective Brutality
1 Golgari Charm
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Stubborn Denial
2 Delay
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Abrade
This list is pretty close to the "core" I posted a few pages back. I tried playing zero Stubs in the 75, maxing out on TBR, and even the recent Suicide Zoo lists. Conclusion: you still need Stub. Not in copious amounts, but a couple are good. So other than mixing up the removal suite, and cutting a removal spell for a Grim Flayer, this list is largely just one of the previous Manamorphose lists I've posted maybe a couple months ago. Geared to beat humans though, at the cost of losing Abrupt Decay in the 75. The SB is also geared for Humans, with Lavamancer and Radiant Flames. The only grindy deck we really have SB cards for is Mardu: Golgari Charm, Spellbomb, and Abrade to kill Bridge if they have it. We are basically conceding to Jeskai and Jund. It's too hard to gain percentage points there, so we're hoping that Tron and such pushes it out of the metagame if we play this deck. Though Golgari Charm does stop Supreme Verdict. So the goal is to beat humans, take advantage of our natural strength against KCI, and beat Tron. Yes, you want the Fulminator for Tron. Even as a slow Traverse target, it can often take games that you are about 60% to win to about 90%. I've played 2 before just to naturally draw them.
But if our goal is to beat humans, Manamorphose is a problem. We reeeally want it against Tron and KCI to get a threat out fast, but Thalia is a real problem out of humans. So that motivates the Manamorphose-less build. We have to make up for our worse ability to get delirium, so that means 1) more threats, and 2) Tarfire (or maybe Seal of Fire). Tarfire is also an ok removal spell against humans. Here's the relevant list:
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Grim Flayer
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Stubborn Denial
3 Temur Battle Rage
2 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Dismember
1 Tarfire
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Radiant Flames
2 Collective Brutality
1 Golgari Charm
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Stubborn Denial
2 Delay
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Abrade
The other change here is the 3rd TBR. I kind of want a 3rd TBR in the first list, but there's just no room. But if we cut the Manamorphoses, that means the deck size is larger and we have extra slots, so in one goes. It could be a second Tarfire to be honest though. The SB is the same, though I'm not sure if that's correct. But in any case, this just where I'd start, if I were dead set on playing Shadow. Essentially: max out on threats, do everything you can to beat Humans (harder) and Tron (not so hard), use GY hate to try to get under Mardu, and then find out if you can still get away with Manamorphose if you absolutely need to beat humans. If you can, great! If not, see if you still consistently produce a threat fast enough if all the other matchups. One bad thing about wanting to beat both tron and humans is that tron makes you want Breeding Pool (so Worldbreaker doesn't KO your countermagic) while Humans makes you want Stomping Ground (so you can double red spell / activate lavaman in one turn). So that's another thing we need to learn: how important are those two things for those respective matchups, and which one should we choose? I lean toward double red, but it could go the other way.
Of course your local metagame could vary. This is trying to beat the expected SCG Open / GP metagame.
I largely agree with this, though "Always" is a little strong on keeping the 5. If my 7 is 2 lands, a pile of cantrips, and a discard spell though, I might mulligan it in some matchups. Especially if I can't create a scry using Bauble somehow. For example, against Tron, where we really need the threat early and our interaction is not likely to slow them down enough if we don't have one. I'm not certain about this though. In the dark, I think we have to keep that hand. It's part of what we signed up for with this many cantrips, and sometimes it won't pan out, but at least we have some interaction.
<3
I just wish the deck was well positioned right now.
I took the original list I used to win my SCG Regionals to a weekly for the nostalgia value since it's the last weekly before I move halfway across the country, and casually 5-0ed, including beating Mardu twice, and winning a match against spirits partially because my opponent made uncharacteristically (for him) boneheaded plays, and because he accidentally left relevant sideboard cards at home. I'm convinced that particular 75 has some voodoo powers now.
1 Marsh Flats
1 Arid Mesa
1 Godless Shrine
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Blood Crypt
2 Mountain
2 Swamp
3 Temple of Malice
2 Temple of Triumph
1 Temple of Silence
4 Goryo's Vengeance
4 Through the Breach
4 Emrakul, the Aeon's Torn
4 Griselbrand
2 Night's Whisper
1 Cathartic Reunion
3 Wall of Omens
1 Collective Brutality
1 Lightning Axe
3 Fateful Showdown
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Desperate Ritual
2 Infernal Plunge
3 Blood Moon
2 Wear // Tear
2 Collective Brutality
2 Linvala, the Preserver
1 Guttural Response
2 Defense Grid
1 Pyroclasm
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Bontu's Last Reckoning
Wall of Omens has been the key to unlock this deck. Digs, buys time, and allows you to Infernal Plunge to cast Breach on turn 3 if necessary. I've experimented with including 2-3 Restoration Angels and a singleton Kiki Jiki, but it's mostly too clunky. 3 Walls seems about right though. I'm pretty happy with the MD numbers, but the SB numbers need work. Linvala is suppose to be a grindy card that happens to come in against burn, but it hasn't impressed me. It's too hard to set up against burn a lot of the time, and Grave Titan is a better haymaker for the grindy matchups. I'd really like Timely Reinforcements in the SB for burn and other aggro, but it's so bad against humans it's hard to justify.
I hear ya on Decay. But right now I think Traverse Shadow need more cheap removal to justify itself, TBH. If you can't beat humans, I don't think you should be playing the deck.
Maybe not that far. I'm still thinking the Traverse shell, just tweaking the flex slots + interaction to optimally fight the format. And probably getting a Grim Flayer in there too just to make sure we have the early pressure. Suizoo requires a whole lot of different things in order to support the combo-centric nature of the deck.
Not that I don't think Suizoo is worth exploring. I did try it in a weekly last Wed, and crushed - 4-1, only losing to burn in the last round on some pretty poor draws. It still felt pretty powerful. The one MTGO league I ran it through resulted in a 2-3 though, so maybe it was just the level of competition :D. In any case, I think Suizoo operates differently enough than the Traverse/Grixis/Mardu/whatever shadow lists that the above reasoning doesn't really apply. The proper comparison isn't Humans, it's Infect, Hollow One, and Burn. Aggro/Combo with light disruption elements.
If everyone is playing control, I want to be as far away from Death's Shadow as possible to be honest.
I largely agree, but think this puts us in a catch-22. If humans is a big enough % of the metagame, we want bolt and not Decay (though Push is still fine). If it's not, then that probably means control decks are prominent, which means we probably shouldn't be playing a Shadow deck.
There's another pseudo-catch 22 here. In many metagames, Humans does a better job of doing what the Shadow decks do: decently fast clock + disruption to beat a wide swathe of unfair decks in the format. The reason Humans is better than Shadow at this is not necessarily how well it does in those matchups, but how well it does in other matchups - it can steal games against the midrange decks more easily IMO. The exceptions to this involve Tron, which allegedly Humans isn't fast enough to have that great of a matchup against, and aggro decks, where Shadow can get an edge just by having a pile of removal. So for Shadow to justify itself, it has to be good against big mana and/or fast aggro, including humans. And beating humans specifically necessitates Lightning Bolt, again. While beating big mana necessitates other deckbuilding decisions, like countermagic.
Honestly, I have trouble seeing how Death's Shadow can fit into the meta given all of this. I mean, if you don't care about maximizing your win percentage at the expensive of literally every thing else, it's still a fine choice (like many decks in modern), but I think it's unlikely that the stars align and Shadow is a legit tier 1 deck.
That said, IMO the most likely possibility is something that shoves in on TBR and tries to kill everyone, aggro, big mana, even midrage decks, ASAP, while potentially cutting blue. It'll still have plenty of trouble with midrange and control decks, but maybe that's enough to win the aggro and big mana matchups at the same time (while still doing its thing against spell-based combo), which does a better job of justifying the deck as something to play instead of humans. Maybe this even means cutting some discard spells! I'm not sure.
Edit to add: the other spot where Shadow can justify itself over Humans is specifically against KCI. Humans has a medium to slightly unfavorable KCI matchup, it turns out, because of stuff like EE and pyrite spellbomb and Ghirapur Aether Grid. But Shadow dunks on that deck, especially if it keeps the countermagic in the 75.
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Manamorphose
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Dismember
2 Lightning Bolt
That leaves 3 slots to play with, though you could also tweak the removal suite. But right now Bolt is really valuable because of Humans, and Decay feels slow and clunky. Options for the last 3 slots: 1) 1-3 Stubborn Denial of course, but maybe we don't want blue at all, 2) 1-2 Grim Flayer to get more threats and fuel delirium. 2 seems like a stretch, but maybe 1, 3) more removal - another push or bolt is reasonable, but a Tarfire might also be worth it. 4) a traversable haymaker. Bedlam Reveler is my #1 here, but it seems like more of a SB card, 5) planeswalkers - 1-2 LOTV and/or 1 LtlH, 6) more TBR.
My prefered options are: 1) 2 Stub, 1 TBR, 2) 1 Flayer, 1 TBR, 1 removal spell, maybe a Tarfire. 1) is old reliable, 2) is experimental, removing blue from the deck entirely and being as aggressive as possible. I might give it a shot soon, but first I gotta try the suicide zoo build that Daryl Ayers just 5-0ed a league with.