Would be very, very cautious on expeditions from a purchasing standpoint right now. We don't know when the roughly 2 per case average will end, and that's a LOT of expeditions opened. Ebay prices have been steadily dropping since last week.
At current rates of 2 per case, and 25 total expeditions, the chances of opening any specific expedition are actually higher than the chances of opening any specific foil mythic in the set (1/216 packs, with 15 mythics). Granted the play value is considerably higher, but in pure "availability" terms with booster boxes in plentiful supply at ~$105/box shipped, we have a LOT of product being opened and perceived value of this is set with new dual lands is high right now.
Would not be surprised to see these drop closer to the foil mythic prices in the set before stabilizing (which will happen when we stop seeing expeditions at the current rate). Then it will be a good time to discuss potential market value and a good buying price.
Moral or ethical arguments aside (collectibles of any sort will have hoarding), I think a short term investment in BFZ Fat Packs is a very good strategy if managed correctly. I wouldn't recommend buying anything online in the current inflated state, since re-sellers are already extracting value out of the Fat Packs. Ebay auctions for just the land packs, empty boxes etc have spiked, and the value of those (~25-30) + the 9 boosters is right around where a new sealed box goes for (~$55-$60 shipped at the moment).
However, if you can find some at MSRP (~40-45 after tax) in your local big-box retailer (Target/Walmart/etc) I'd highly recommend it. The market value is already 10-15 dollars higher online, and most big retailers have 30 day return policies on sealed sports and trading cards. I think we'll have a much better idea of where these are headed before then. So it's a very low-risk strategy with potentially big rewards if some of the rumors on availability / first-wave only expeditions / etc turn out to be true.
It appears I'm not alone in this idea, as I've noticed BFZ has been stocked at our local retailers, and not surprisingly the fat packs are all gone.
It looks like they are re-using at least one of the arts for the mountain, but as others have said because they changed the border and most of the artwork, the impact on price is minimized. Had they decided to simply reprint all the same artwork in the same border style, the values certainly would have taken a hit. But if you are planning on selling the lands in the next 18 months or so, now is a good time.
Since PayPal was brought up, I highly recommend stamps.com as well. I've been a loyal user of both but recently PayPal has made it harder to JUST use their multi-order shipping and not invoice the whole thing, so I went stamps.com. You can enter orders in bulk, print out shipping labels 2 per page, and it's about $2 w/ tracking and delivery conf for a padded envelope that fits 100+ cards easy.
Opportunities to make someone's day are few and far between. That said, nothing is illegal about cancelling a sale especially before shipping. It's happened to all of us as buyers (especially pre-orders, but that's another discussion). It comes down to how you'll feel about the buyer - in this case, they've wasted valuable time waiting for the card they've won when they could have been bidding. How would you feel if you paid $23 for a $50 or $70 card (temporarily), and by the time the seller cancelled it was even higher? I'd take the opportunity to honor your sale.
Revoking a sale doesn't give the other party a chance to leave feedback, because the sale didn't go through so there is not nothing to give feedback on. Oops!
That is incorrect. If the auction hasn't ended, you can end the listing early and there is no winner to leave feedback, but if the auction completed (and looks like it was given the $23 quote) feedback can be left.
There are some good stories in here, but given it's market street I think it's also important to clarify the risk with buying anything not on the reserved list, limited print exclusive promo, etc. History has shown us the WotC will reprint, and sky-rocketing cards are also quick to plummet when spoilers are announced.
Despite this advice I've made some silly short term bets, including the Gatecrash primordials. I thought they were going to blow up the multiplayer circles, and they have in our group, but at CMC 7 and a rare in a very popular set, they are everywhere and not worth more than a quarter. Still hoping for a long term up-trend as they pick up steam in commander decks (the black and blue are especially powerful with a game full of clones) but it was silly to expect a quick return with those.
My best bets have oddly enough been basic lands. Say what you will about dual lands, fetch lands, older reserved cards, but rare basic lands are very unique in that they are legal in every format, and over time become highly sought to bling out EDH/commander or older legacy decks. For example, the unhinged and zendikar full art lands, guru lands, rare summer magic lands ended up being excellent picks for my collection. Sadly I don't own most of them any longer, but the few I kept have done very well in the market even out pacing good reserved list cards. For those looking for a safe bet, a good playset or x20 of a valuable basic land is not a bad choice.
I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but for me personally this is very dependent on the market conditions. In the past 80 years there have only been two times when the Shiller P/E ratio has been this high. The first was in 1929 just before the great depression, and the second was in 2000, just before the .com bust. About 6 months ago, it would have been three times, the third being 2008 before mortgage-backed securities collapsed which brought down most of the market with it. But we past that mark in January.
Contrast this with the price of power 9 in the same time period (discounting 1929 for obvious reasons) - high demand magic cards have held - if not gained value - when the financial sector suffered. Granted power 9 is near their all time high right now, but so is the magic player base. And unlike stocks, money, gold, diamonds, oil, coal, or gas, you can't issue/print/mine any more Power 9 - they're on the reserved list.
Even if we look at 2009 which was an excellent time to get into almost any fund, the same purchase of key reserved list cards kept up - if not beat - the best funds in the last 6 years.
30 years is a long time to guess if Magic, WoTC or for that matter Hasbro is still in business, but I think there will be plenty of time to watch the growth of the player base, see if we near or hit a peak, and sell before any panic fire sales start. Especially for the game's most iconic card.
Wow some good insights on this thread. I think SCG being known for having inventory drives a lot of these higher retail prices because as folks have said, they need to put a higher ceiling to attract sellers more than buyers. Good news is that there is plenty of volume still on eBay both for sale and completed listings, so we can monitor the demand changes pretty well.
At least for some of the moxes, there really hasn't been a huge shift in the last few months. For example a Pearl was around $400-500 6 months ago in the "Ex-MT/6" range, and I see ending listings for about the same price today. When you get up into the highest graded cards, that's a slightly different story. Those have a much larger range and smaller sampling size, so hard to find a true pattern. But there does appear to be an increase there for a top-rated card.
Wizards has ratcheted up the reprint wheel significantly in the last 5 years. Some due to more cards printed per year (core set every year, commander set every year, some sort of summer set every year), others due to specifically targeting high secondary market cards. Every secondary market price increase is lost money to wizards, so unless it's on the reserved list or a promo / special edition, I'd be hesitant to invest right now, regardless of format legality. They even re-used artwork for MM1, which shows little regard for maintaining secondary market value even based on initial-printing collector value. This is especially true with uncommons and rares. (Kitchen finks was a $10 card once and the single MM1 reprint drove it's price down over 70%).
But as others said, they do seem to be doing this in phases. As a player, I'd still suggest buying cards you need to play the game. But as an investment - stay clear of staples in the 3-6 year old, single printing range.
My advice would be to list it on eBay and clearly state that you are willing to deliver in person and have a nearby store help authenticate the card. You'll get top dollar and hopefully calm any nervous buyers. Yes you have to deal with some airfare and travel, but for a 20K+ card it's worth it. The travel cost is probably less than the cash difference a store will give you locally, and so you'd actually get a free trip out of it too.
Ravages is also not on the reserved list. Investor beware - I'd caution the same on Imperial Seal and many other P3K. Especially given the last couple of years a fairly rapid entry into reprinting these (Overwhelming Forces Judge promo being the latest).
And for any seller that tries to talk you into buying it due to the "original, old-school white border printing" - take a look at TCGPlayer price history for Overwhelming Forces to see how much that doesn't matter when any sort of reprint hits the market. Especially if it's another Judge Promo, these prices may be in for a major correction.
When contemplating longer-term market street analysis for a card, there are 3 important questions that should be asked:
Is this card on the reserved list?
Is this card a special promo version that is unlikely to get reprinted or opened further in great volume?
Is this card from an original printing that has special significance to collectors apart from other possible reprints?
If you can't answer any of these with a YES, you are taking an enormous gable with expensive, modern-legal cards. Dark Depths is one of many cards ripe for a reprint, and Wizards will not lose out on secondary market demand that could be spent on retail product in the long term. I wouldn't recommend investing in any $40+ modern legal rare, even if it would be reprinted at Mythic. Dark Depths at $44 is a very dangerous investment.
At current rates of 2 per case, and 25 total expeditions, the chances of opening any specific expedition are actually higher than the chances of opening any specific foil mythic in the set (1/216 packs, with 15 mythics). Granted the play value is considerably higher, but in pure "availability" terms with booster boxes in plentiful supply at ~$105/box shipped, we have a LOT of product being opened and perceived value of this is set with new dual lands is high right now.
Would not be surprised to see these drop closer to the foil mythic prices in the set before stabilizing (which will happen when we stop seeing expeditions at the current rate). Then it will be a good time to discuss potential market value and a good buying price.
However, if you can find some at MSRP (~40-45 after tax) in your local big-box retailer (Target/Walmart/etc) I'd highly recommend it. The market value is already 10-15 dollars higher online, and most big retailers have 30 day return policies on sealed sports and trading cards. I think we'll have a much better idea of where these are headed before then. So it's a very low-risk strategy with potentially big rewards if some of the rumors on availability / first-wave only expeditions / etc turn out to be true.
It appears I'm not alone in this idea, as I've noticed BFZ has been stocked at our local retailers, and not surprisingly the fat packs are all gone.
That is incorrect. If the auction hasn't ended, you can end the listing early and there is no winner to leave feedback, but if the auction completed (and looks like it was given the $23 quote) feedback can be left.
Despite this advice I've made some silly short term bets, including the Gatecrash primordials. I thought they were going to blow up the multiplayer circles, and they have in our group, but at CMC 7 and a rare in a very popular set, they are everywhere and not worth more than a quarter. Still hoping for a long term up-trend as they pick up steam in commander decks (the black and blue are especially powerful with a game full of clones) but it was silly to expect a quick return with those.
My best bets have oddly enough been basic lands. Say what you will about dual lands, fetch lands, older reserved cards, but rare basic lands are very unique in that they are legal in every format, and over time become highly sought to bling out EDH/commander or older legacy decks. For example, the unhinged and zendikar full art lands, guru lands, rare summer magic lands ended up being excellent picks for my collection. Sadly I don't own most of them any longer, but the few I kept have done very well in the market even out pacing good reserved list cards. For those looking for a safe bet, a good playset or x20 of a valuable basic land is not a bad choice.
Contrast this with the price of power 9 in the same time period (discounting 1929 for obvious reasons) - high demand magic cards have held - if not gained value - when the financial sector suffered. Granted power 9 is near their all time high right now, but so is the magic player base. And unlike stocks, money, gold, diamonds, oil, coal, or gas, you can't issue/print/mine any more Power 9 - they're on the reserved list.
Even if we look at 2009 which was an excellent time to get into almost any fund, the same purchase of key reserved list cards kept up - if not beat - the best funds in the last 6 years.
30 years is a long time to guess if Magic, WoTC or for that matter Hasbro is still in business, but I think there will be plenty of time to watch the growth of the player base, see if we near or hit a peak, and sell before any panic fire sales start. Especially for the game's most iconic card.
At least for some of the moxes, there really hasn't been a huge shift in the last few months. For example a Pearl was around $400-500 6 months ago in the "Ex-MT/6" range, and I see ending listings for about the same price today. When you get up into the highest graded cards, that's a slightly different story. Those have a much larger range and smaller sampling size, so hard to find a true pattern. But there does appear to be an increase there for a top-rated card.
But as others said, they do seem to be doing this in phases. As a player, I'd still suggest buying cards you need to play the game. But as an investment - stay clear of staples in the 3-6 year old, single printing range.
And for any seller that tries to talk you into buying it due to the "original, old-school white border printing" - take a look at TCGPlayer price history for Overwhelming Forces to see how much that doesn't matter when any sort of reprint hits the market. Especially if it's another Judge Promo, these prices may be in for a major correction.
If you can't answer any of these with a YES, you are taking an enormous gable with expensive, modern-legal cards. Dark Depths is one of many cards ripe for a reprint, and Wizards will not lose out on secondary market demand that could be spent on retail product in the long term. I wouldn't recommend investing in any $40+ modern legal rare, even if it would be reprinted at Mythic. Dark Depths at $44 is a very dangerous investment.